First Saturday in May

Maybe Pharoah will be bet bet down to 6-ish, or maybe even a bit harder. There's a tendency toward a recency bias in the wagering market for these future pools; the Florida & Louisiana Derbys will be run on the 28th during the time the wagering window is open for the final Pool #4, while the Bluegrass & Wood won't be in the books or much on the public's radar. I won't be interested in buying anything paying under about 12 or 15/1 at that time. Which may mean standing pat for straight win tickets on prospects that I think may get the distance and could improve the necessary five lengths or more from this point while doing it.

With the loss of Texas Red on the Derby trail, the 1st and 2nd Derby Pool exacta favorite is gone. Unfortunately, some serious Derby future pool money went "bye-bye" for many (not for me, but I have lost my share). Hopefully he heals up properly and can make an appearance later in the Triple Crown.

I wonder if one of the UAE Derby hopefuls will make the last Pool? The race will be over the same weekend (March 28th) as the 4th Derby Pool. Not really sure who they could pick (if any): Mubtaahij, Maftool, Sir Fever?

We only have 9 prep races left (10 if you include the Lexington Stakes). About the Lexington Stakes:
This race has been moved back one week to take the place of the recently moved back Blue Grass Stakes (April 4th). The 1^1/16mile race earns little points but does allow those on the Derby bubble a late last chance. With 3 weeks now between the Lexington/KDerby, combined with the new dirt surface @ Keeneland, and the possible need for a few more Derby points the race has more importance this year IMO.

Wednesday March 18 - Oaklawn Park race#8 (1mile -Alw 67k - 3yo and up)

#5 - I Spent It - 1st Derby pool horse making his 3yo debut. Very late to the party, first 2 turn race, but his last 3 workouts have been bullets. He is listed as the morning line 2/1 favorite.

Texas Red is most likely my fault. My punishment every year for including a few smallish gutless "to be safe(r) just in case" wagers on some combinations that I don't actually like for this strongly enough to think of wanting to bet them straight-up on the nose. It is my annual weenie-tax, that I deserve to pay to the extent I repeat that Oscar Mayer wagering behavior. They rarely make the race, and never light the board to pay on my weenie insurance policy. Ocho and Int'l Star are other little exacta weenies of mine that remain live... for the moment. In my own defense, my wager weenies do get proportionately smaller every year, and I could not be described as contributing any major part to that "serious" money in the case of TRed. Especially not with the "field."

The line dude at Westgate told me he is going to prove up unrivaled at 200's tomorrow and my wife has given me the green light to pull the trigger. I will have a saver on mubtaahij at 85's and that will conclude my futures book.

Don't have a ticket, don't have a chance :)

Quote: Keeneone

Wednesday March 18 - Oaklawn Park race#8 (1mile -Alw 67k - 3yo and up)

#5 - I Spent It - 1st Derby pool horse making his 3yo debut. Very late to the party, first 2 turn race, but his last 3 workouts have been bullets. He is listed as the morning line 2/1 favorite.

I think he's too late. Is he going to go from this race to the Ark Derby in 3 1/2 weeks, then the KY Derby? Seems too much.

That Oaklawn race is an interesting spot for him, and not a common sort. Obviously he's up against it to get into consideration for this. In some ways it seems similar to Danza's circumstances last year, who'd performed well as a 2 YO when making his 2nd lifetime start for 3rd place in the Sarataga Special, then had to go on the shelf for months, ran one so-so race 1st back for 3rd place in a March N1X allowance, next won the Arkansas Derby at a big price for Pletcher ($84.60 cha-ching), and got third in the Kentucky Derby and I think probably should have been at least 2nd. I liked him in the Derby. The Kentucky one.

I Spent It won the Saratoga Special impressively in his 2nd lifetime race, and after his juvenile stakes races last year has been away due to surgery for a bone chip. Obviously he must not have been ready for a race until now (if he is) and apparently Dutrow is taking the most suitable return option he found available around two turns, and not what he likely would've drawn up for him if he had many choices. This "allowance" is a N3X open to older horses. That's the kind that often can have some tough older stakes veterans, and this one does with a graded stakes winner, a multiple graded stakes placed runner, and another graded stakes placed entrant... four and five year-olds. I want to see how he runs, keeping in mind that he's being thrown in with some of his elders in the highest level of restricted type allowance that Oaklawn offers. This is arguably a tougher spot than either the Southwest Stakes or the Rebel for a 3yo trying to become a two turn horse for the first time in his life.

2014 Saratoga Special:



2013 Saratoga Special:



2014 Arkansas Derby (you may recognize some other names from this; they won some other races later):



I Spent It is a little on the light side to me for getting 10f in May, as I have him at 7.0f. Marginal. He's another by Super Saver, but he doesn't get a lot of help for that from Sky Mesa on the bottom. Looks more like a good middle distance runner to me, and would have to outrun his pedigree a bit to get there at 1m & 1/4 at Churchill. Danza came in at a solid 7.3f+.

Spent:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/OP031815USA8.pdf

Quote: Equibase

I SPENT IT last to leave, moved up off the inside, got out a bit into the first turn, chased the winner up the backstretch, gave way.

I wouldn't have described it that kindly.

So my big Futures bet was $10 exacta - field / all in pool 1. So far that bet is looking awful. It looks like it will either lose, or I'll lose money on it if it can somehow win. Oh well.

Quote: DrawingDead

Spent:
I wouldn't have described it that kindly.

I Spent It looked very green and keen to haul-a** around Oaklawn. He clearly needed that one. If happy/healthy after the race, I still would not be surprised to see him in another prep race before the Derby. The lure of the race is just so strong. I have watched more 3yo races "live" this year than I ever have in the past. One thing is surprising: the power of a promising 3yo colt to draw betting money in their races.

Quote: FinsRule

So my big Futures bet was $10 exacta - field / all in pool 1. So far that bet is looking awful. It looks like it will either lose, or I'll lose money on it if it can somehow win. Oh well.

I guess you did not box-it due to the expense/value, but I would be very happy with that ticket. There is still time for the field runners to develop. IIRC, DrawingDead kinda liked the makeup (pedigrees) of the first pool. And the current "top 3" betting interests were in the pool: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem.
----------


In other news, Imperia was entered and then quickly scratched from the Spiral Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=48597
Not a good sign for him.

Cliff's notes: If field is 'X' probability, and horse #19 is 'Y' probability, then what is that number 'Z' which is the chance of #24-Field in first followed specifically by #19-Horsey in second? That can be calculated, though not as simply as you might be tempted to guess, and one must know that to know whether they are in fact getting a better or worse price than just betting to win, for that and for each and every one. One must, in part, because just averaging among them does NOT provide an average result.

I've ducked getting into this myself since the first page, but here we are... Not so Cliff-ey Note-y:

Boxing "field all" really would mean "all, all" and it would mean betting on all possible outcomes, each evenly for the same amount without regard to differing odds or probabilities for each. It would have the same effect as flat betting every horse entered in an individual race if the takeout was the same. And this is NOT what I understood Fins to be doing. EDIT: That may not be so, depending on how one reads it. And I probably read it wrong, in a silly way. Could be field over all, and all over field, which eliminates wagers on two named interests finishing in the exacta, rather than field and all over same.

On the other hand, flat betting "field" over "all" really means field over each of the 23 others at each of those 23 odds, and the effect of that always differs from simply betting "field" straight up to win in at least two ways (along with more important likely differences below): 1) At Churchill's pari-mutual rates the bettor is paying a higher takeout rate for the "field" to win than simply betting "field" in the straight win pool; and, 2) Because the 23 bets (which is what they are - each is a separate wager in reality) are not proportionally weighted but are instead the same size, making each a different proportion of each of the pools for each exacta combination, being a lower proportion of wagering in high probability low odds place outcomes and a higher proportion of the wagering action in low probability high odds place interests, one would then be disproportionately betting on the high odds/low probability named wagering interests to finish ahead of other named wagering interests that are lower odds with higher implied probability.

Essentially, it amounts to a backdoor way of betting on some one of all relative longshots collectively among named betting interests to finish ahead of any other named interests that aren't quite such longshots. And doing so in Pool #1 or any pool in which "field" is at an implied probability > 50% will result in cashing the wager while losing money being the most probable outcome, followed by simply losing the wager being the next most common outcome, followed by cashing and also profiting being the least likely result, if the wagering market reflects something close to an evaluation of probabilities (as it does most of the time under most circumstances) rather than being a random scattering of money. But making wagers that will lose money more often than they win it is not necessarily a bad thing, of course; it depends on the specifics of how often and how much.

Whether doing this "field/all" exacta is on balance a good or bad bet and to what extent depends on the degree and direction of variance in the implied probabilities of each separate wager in the exacta pool from the related implied probabilities in the win pool on combinations of individual betting interests. And this statement applies to any multiple horse or multi-race wagers, where there are independent wagering pools on outcomes which are not independent of one another in actual occurance. That relative value or lack of it will vary for each of the 23 wagers involved. It is not actually one wager.

Some may offer more value than the corresponding win wager. Some will definitely suck and be a horrible value compared to a simple straight bet. Generally I find that in these future pools many 'field/x' wagers in exactas are proportionately overbet and offer shorter odds than a rational calculation comparing win pool odds, but it varies by individual wagering interest and there are usually some that are relatively underbet among the 23 when tied up with the field as the winner. They tend to be few, because overall the field tends to be bet even harder in exactas than in the win pool. To determine which is which, you'd need to know how to go about calculating what the odds in one pool for one outcome imply for relative fair value in the other pool, and it is necessary to do that calculation for each separate possible outcome. And if someone asks me to help them with how to get further into that with any degree of precision (especially in this public forum) know in advance that I am going to respectfully ignore them. Nice weather we been havin' and how 'bout dem Wildcats.

I think for some people doing it a misunderstanding of the meaning of "average" when applied to odds may be involved, but I'll just leave that be for the most part, because any folks who may be doing it for that particular reason will not understand and in my experience will just become upset and frustrated by the attempt to illuminate. Briefly stated, and in oversimplified fashion, taking either the simple un-weighted arithmetic average or else the median of the 23 named betting interests does NOT come close to representing the average expected payout that will result, because they are not at all close to being equally likely random outcomes. Over time, the true average payout of "field/all" will be much less than a flawed simple "average" among the 23 numbers because the lower paying wagering interests will occur in the results much more often than will the payout for that the mythical "averaged" amount or more.

Good luck.

As I said before, I had planned on making only two bets and taking my chances. I enjoy finding horses who I think have a chance to make the final field, having a bet at fixed odds and sitting back while enjoying the ride.

I wanted the 200/1 about Unrivaled but was a little disappointed when i got to Westgate and was only offered 150/1. Then, to add insult to injury, they would only lay me 10,000 of the horse at each level. I took 10000/66.67 (150/1) and 10000/80 (125/1).
I also took 3400/40 about Mubtaahij. I guess I will know if this one will get a run as soon as next weekend when he runs in the UAE Derby. Unrivalled will more than likely head to Keeneland for the Blue Grass in which he will either have to win or run 2nd to have any type of chance of getting in.

So those are my bets, I'm having my wife keep the tickets for luck and she has already started to spend the money in her head :)

Indiananughty, which I also mentioned is going in the Florida Derby as far as I know.......lets see if he can improve on the dirt!

Interesting to hear at what point they began to throttle the wagers for this. And fun to me to virtually 'listen' to it described in the non-US wagering terminology that I don't hear so often. I suspect someone out there who hasn't heard European/South African/etc. wagering descriptions before may be thinking you just pushed twenty-thousand dollars across the counter.

I trust the wifey has been around the block with this enough to know that only ONE of those will be getting cashed.

Quote: DrawingDead

Interesting to hear at what point they began to throttle the wagers for this. And fun to me to virtually 'listen' to it described in the non-US wagering terminology that I don't hear so often. I suspect someone out there who hasn't heard European/South African/etc. wagering descriptions before may be thinking you just pushed twenty-thousand dollars across the counter.

I trust the wifey has been around the block with this enough to know that only ONE of those will be getting cashed.

Yeah she does know. No price for which ticket she is already spending :)
It is quite different how talk about wagering even though it is basically the same thing. We are a lot more into ante post market bething than the US. One thing that does puzzle me is that the sports book does not offer place betting in the futures market. I would love to take just under a quarter of the odds for a first 4 finish. I would also imagine it would be an awesome bet type as it gives you the opportunity to cover your win bet.

Anyway, the American market will bear what it will. .....

Saturday March 21, 2015:
Turfway Park race#11 Spiral Stakes G3 (550k - 1^1/8mile)

1 - Royal Son
2 - Big Family
3 - Watchyourownbobber
4 - Wireless Future
5 - Another Lemon Drop
6 - Imperia - Trainer scratched this one.
7 - Magic of Believing
8 - Task Force Glory
9 - Conquest Typhoon
10 - Firespike
11 - Metaboss
12 - Dubai Sky

-I do not have a strong opinion about the possible winner or (more importantly) the Derby value of this race. The hunch play has to be Royal Son. British Royalty, Prince Charles and Camilla will be in Kentucky this Friday (Louisville). Royal Son is the tepid morning line favorite (7/2) and this is a competitive race. The 4 outside horses (9-12) have ability and are contenders.

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday March 21, 2015:
Turfway Park race#11 Spiral Stakes G3 (550k - 1^1/8mile)

1 - Royal Son
2 - Big Family
3 - Watchyourownbobber
4 - Wireless Future
5 - Another Lemon Drop
6 - Imperia - Trainer scratched this one.
7 - Magic of Believing
8 - Task Force Glory
9 - Conquest Typhoon
10 - Firespike
11 - Metaboss
12 - Dubai Sky

-I do not have a strong opinion about the possible winner or (more importantly) the Derby value of this race. The hunch play has to be Royal Son. British Royalty, Prince Charles and Camilla will be in Kentucky this Friday (Louisville). Royal Son is the tepid morning line favorite (7/2) and this is a competitive race. The 4 outside horses (9-12) have ability and are contenders.

Neither do I. Slow weekend for me trying to find anything I can be serious about anywhere. Gahmbooool?! If Wireless Future (hate the name for a friggen horse) goes off at something close to his morning line of 12/1 I could be tempted to gamble a bit, and Dubai Sky might also interest me a little. And if I bet one or either or both or any in this thing, I think gambling is exactly what I'll be doing. So pawn your grandma's silver and go to the window.

DD - If you looked at the field / X exacta payouts for last year pool 1, there was great value. Would anyone have predicted that Ride on Curlin would be the only pool 1 horse to make the field. My hypothesis is that who is good in November is usually not who is good in May.

This year my hypothesis has taken quite a beating. I would need Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Dortmund to not only lose, but have a different Pool 1 horse come in front of them and not win for this bet to have been a better bet than just betting $230 to win on the field. It's not looking to promising so far, but I guess there is still time.

Quote: FinsRule

My hypothesis is that who is good in November is usually not who is good in May.

But you flat bet them all in the exacta. I think it is fine if you want to do that, or anything else. But that's what it was. If I was seeking to implement that hypothesis, which I agree with as a general statement, I would not choose to flat bet all the lowest prices evenly to be part of the exacta. But hey, that's my money, and yours is yours.

Last year resulted in one of the three highest odds payouts that was possible. And yet, even with that ideal result, if one was flat betting everything with the field that exacta still resulted in a return per dollar that was not all that much higher than betting field to win. Over two-thirds of the betting interests last year potentially returned less per dollar on the total cost of flat betting them all than simply betting the field alone to win, and none of the remainder with highest odds potentially paid significantly more per dollar wagered. Put another way, a lot more of the money was bet on the field to win in the exacta than in the win pool, and at a higher takeout.

I don't want to change what you want to do, for whatever reason you or anyone else may want to do so. If you like it, by all means do it. But it is what it is.

As for me, in about 26 hours I will probably choose to make a wager on a race that I have no clear opinion on, and therefore have a negative expectation in doing so, just because. Knowing that I'm doing so. I'm told it is legal to do that around here. I may even do it again some day.

Quote: DrawingDead

But you flat bet them all in the exacta.

Revision: My hypothesis is that who is good in November may or may not be who is good in May. Yes, the value on the big 4 was horrible: (Pharoah, Carpe, Dortmund, Texas Red) So if I would have done field / other 19, it would have been a better "value" bet. But why cheap out on the $40?

Quote: FinsRule

But why cheap out on the $40?

I believe I do understand. See my remarks on my own "weenie wagers" day before yesterday.

Quote: DrawingDead

Texas Red is most likely my fault. My punishment every year for including a few smallish gutless "to be safe(r) just in case" wagers on some combinations that I don't actually like for this strongly enough to think of wanting to bet them straight-up on the nose. It is my annual weenie-tax, that I deserve to pay to the extent I repeat that Oscar Mayer wagering behavior. They rarely make the race, and never light the board to pay on my weenie insurance policy. Ocho and Int'l Star are other little exacta weenies of mine that remain live... for the moment. In my own defense, my wager weenies do get proportionately smaller every year, and I could not be described as contributing any major part to that "serious" money in the case of TRed. Especially not with the "field."

Not that yours are weenies at all. We'll call that portion of them gourmet frankfurter wagers. With white wine Diijon, and a side dish of pate fois gras.

Here's a way one could decide to add some toppings to a wagering frankfurter to implement the same opinion of the wagering interests in an early pool. One could separate the named wagering interests into those that are seen as too heavily bet, and those that are not, then use those that are not in those exactas under the field, while taking the money that would have been used on the others to bet the field simply to win. Doing so could potentially increase the total payout whenever field is first, for the same total money, with no impact on the probability of cashing. In other words, placing the money in the pool which offers the greater value for the same outcomes. That's a thought one could consider as one alternative way of getting higher odds for betting on that same opinion, anyways. Or not.

Sunday Mar 22,2015 - Sunland Derby G3 (800k - 1^1/8mile)

1 - Firing Line
2 - Lord Nelson - scratched by trainer.
3 - Where's the Moon
4 - Why Two
5 - Malibu Mogul
6 - Tiznow R J
7 - Pain and Misery
8 - Dirt Monster

-Firing Line is the one to beat, based on his past performances, running mates, and recent works. I guess the distance would be the only question mark for him. Where's the Moon ran great in the prep (Mine That Bird Derby) for this race and Tiznow R J has 2 Derby points (3rd in the Lecomte). Lord Nelson will be pointed towards a stakes race @ Aqueduct (Bayshore) @ 7 furlongs. Could this signal an end of Lord Nelson's Derby trail and 2 turn races?

Edit to add:
Two betting options I am considering: late 50 cent Pick 4 (Callback/ALL/Firing Line/ALL) for $48. Another option: $50 win on Callback, then parlay the win on Firing Line.

MAY 1 - 3, 2015

Be Our Guest and Receive:
• Two tickets to the Race for the Roses Festivities
• One entry into $50,000 Derby Drawings
• Complimentary accommodations for up to three nights,
May 1 - 3, 2015, at your choice of one Las Vegas Total Rewards® resort:
Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino, The LINQ, Paris, Flamingo, Bally's, Harrah's or Rio

Must be booked by April 29, 2015.
Use Offer Code: Y5KDRC5


nah think I will watch at home and wager online

Quote: coilman

MAY 1 - 3, 2015

Be Our Guest and Receive:
• Two tickets to the Race for the Roses Festivities
• One entry into $50,000 Derby Drawings
• Complimentary accommodations for up to three nights,
May 1 - 3, 2015, at your choice of one Las Vegas Total Rewards® resort:
Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino, The LINQ, Paris, Flamingo, Bally's, Harrah's or Rio

Must be booked by April 29, 2015.
Use Offer Code: Y5KDRC5


nah think I will watch at home and wager online

This seems a solid offer considering the big fight is also scheduled that weekend.

Yeah I see Strip hotels are going for well over $400/night now for that weekend even at the lesser properties, for their publicly quoted rates that don't involve a player rating or special offer. Even some 'ehhh' chain motels eight or ten miles off-Strip are quoting two Benjamins a night. I wonder if people booking them for that know where they are? I thought the rates would settle down; I was way far wrong. This will be the first year in a long time that I don't get a room for this.

For the Spiral, I like Conquest Typhoon in the rematch. Smith should keep him off the pace here, even if he wanted to go for it, the 9 slot should change his mind, that should give him enough gas to take it. Dubai Sky has 6 works since his last race, looks like they were gearing him up for this. I'm guessing..

1. Conquest Typhoon
2. Metaboss
3. Dubai Sky
4. Magic of Believing

For the Sunland Derby, with Lord Nelson out, the only question is if Firing Line is going to skip to the finish line or if he's going to try to send a message and throw up a big number. I'm guessing

1. Firing Line
2. Where's the Moon
3. Dirt Monster
4. Pain & Misery

Quote: Keeneone

Sunday Mar 22,2015 - Sunland Derby G3 (800k - 1^1/8mile)

1 - Firing Line
2 - Lord Nelson - scratched by trainer.
3 - Where's the Moon
4 - Why Two
5 - Malibu Mogul
6 - Tiznow R J
7 - Pain and Misery
8 - Dirt Monster

Edit to add:
Two betting options I am considering: late 50 cent Pick 4 (Callback/ALL/Firing Line/ALL) for $48. Another option: $50 win on Callback, then parlay the win on Firing Line.

Callback is racing??? My Oaks pick! A win here, and that's where she goes next. I'm now excited for Sunday. That's my kind of pick-4. Make it a pick-2. I'll have to look into that.

Callback can extend Baffert’s Sunland Oaks streak

Quote: DRF - Jay Privman

So rather than have them meet in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks on April 4, Baffert will send Callback to the $200,000 Sunland Park Oaks on Sunday at Sunland Park, while leaving the Santa Anita Oaks for Luminance.

I haven't been keeping up on the filly 3YO division this year, but I gather she still needs Oaks qualifying points, and can get all she needs here. Along with a better than decent check, of course.

Quote: DrawingDead

Callback can extend Baffert’s Sunland Oaks streak


I haven't been keeping up on the filly 3YO division this year, but I gather she still needs Oaks qualifying points, and can get all she needs here. Along with a better than decent check, of course.

Yep. Plum Pretty went from Sunland to Oaks, let's hope Callback can do it as well. A solid $1200 for me if she can.

That was at least more fun than I generally expect to have in a Cincinnati suburb. For the Spiral I tied up Wireless Future and Dubai Sky in the exacta (4/12), and I think I got every dime's worth of entertainment value out of that little wager at odds of about 75/1.



Dubai Sky does have an excellent pedigree for running on synthetic surfaces. So how much did he take to the kitty litter, or how much by going on Lasix and the two month freshening Mott gave him? Hmmm. I have him at an AWD of 7.2f. He won't be going in my 'win' stable in the futures, but with his new chunk of qualifying points I do hope they put him in the gate for it in May.

And now, at last, let's do this thing, the next two weekends it gets really truly serious. It is time. The clock is about to run out on any incomplete equine development or rehab projects. Time to take a serious step up in a Grade 1 or 2 at 9f with a million dollar carrot on top, or quit dreaming of those silly roses.

Quote: FinsRule

Quote: DrawingDead

Callback can extend Baffert’s Sunland Oaks streak


I haven't been keeping up on the filly 3YO division this year, but I gather she still needs Oaks qualifying points, and can get all she needs here. Along with a better than decent check, of course.

Yep. Plum Pretty went from Sunland to Oaks, let's hope Callback can do it as well. A solid $1200 for me if she can.

I need to see the replay, but callback looked great and was placed 4th. Now she might not make the oaks.

Someone made a $100,000.00 bet into the show pool on Firing Line at Sunland; it appears to be one single six-figure "bridge jumper" bet.

Total pool
Win: 246,451; Place: 70,136; Show: 163,883
#1-Firing Line
Win: 163,674; Place: 38,020; Show: 127,740

Congrats on making your 5k, and getting to live another day.

Quote: DrawingDead

Someone made a $100,000.00 bet into the show pool on Firing Line at Sunland; it appears to be one single six-figure "bridge jumper" bet.

Total pool
Win: 246,451; Place: 70,136; Show: 163,883
#1-Firing Line
Win: 163,674; Place: 38,020; Show: 127,740

Congrats on making your 5k, and getting to live another day.

Maybe the Wiz was there he likes the "Bridge Jumper" bets ;-)

Turfway Park - Spiral Stakes G3 (550k - 1^1/8mile)
Dubai Sky won.

-Solid performance from the Florida invader. From a tough outside post he pressed the lead nicely on the outside and finished. Very similar to how Ocean Knight performed in the Sam F Davis. He can be a late nomination to the Triple Crown for 6k if his connections want. I did not get the "Derby fever" vibe after reading some comments after the race. Conquest Typhoon should have enough points to make the gate. He flattened out a bit in the stretch, and I would bet against him in the Derby. 2 big question marks for him: Dirt and Distance. Did not really love the ride on Royal Son. If you want the lead, go get it. After you fail to get it, settle down just behind the front runners and make one run. Honestly, he really may not be good enough right now. What will be next for Metaboss, Firespike, Tiznow R J, and Royal Son? The scramble begins....a last ditch try in the Arkansas Derby in 3 weeks, or the Lexington for the ones who have a few points?

Quote: FinsRule

I need to see the replay, but callback looked great and was placed 4th. Now she might not make the oaks.

The quotes I read stated she spooked right at the wheel marks where the loading gate was. Really sad if this causes her to miss the Oaks. After a few scratches the $40 .50cent pick4 ticket went up in smoke. Right idea, but unlucky when Callback veered in late.

Quote: Keeneone

The quotes I read stated she spooked right at the wheel marks where the loading gate was. Really sad if this causes her to miss the Oaks. After a few scratches the $40 .50cent pick4 ticket went up in smoke. Right idea, but unlucky when Callback veered in late.

I hit the Pick-4 because I put the other Baffert in. I kept 2 out of the last leg. 2, 8 / ALL / 1 / ALL (But 3, 10) = $64 paid = $250

I'm just really bummed about my Oaks future wager. She might still get in, I just don't know...

There are always a lot fewer quality fillies racing (and fewer races) than colts, and the chances of getting in to the Oaks with fewer qualifying points (or none) is a lot higher than for the Derby. They have starting slots for 14 in the Oaks, and here's the number of starters for each of the last 20 editions of the Kentucky Oaks:

2014 12
2013 10
2012 14
2011 13
2010 14
2009 7
2008 10
2007 14
2006 14
2005 7
2004 11
2002 9
2001 13
2000 14
1999 7
1998 13
1997 9
1996 6
1995 8
1994 7

Full fields: 5 times; Undersubscribed: 15 times.

As long as she's fit & sound, I'd still consider that ticket very live.

Sunland Derby G3 (800k - 1^1/8mile):



Firing Line won as the heavy favorite. Where's The Moon finished second.

-Firing Line now has the points to make the gate in May. Six weeks off has worked for his last 2 races, maybe it will also work for the Derby. He has one of the lower AWDs listed by DD, but has performed well in 3 straight stakes. Where's The Moon earned 20 points but needs to be nominated to the Triple Crown.

Quote: DrawingDead

Someone made a $100,000.00 bet into the show pool on Firing Line at Sunland; it appears to be one single six-figure "bridge jumper" bet.
Total pool
Win: 246,451; Place: 70,136; Show: 163,883
#1-Firing Line
Win: 163,674; Place: 38,020; Show: 127,740
Congrats on making your 5k, and getting to live another day.

Crazy. Maybe it was a contest or something. After seeing what happened to Callback (which is a warning against this sort of thing), it took some courage to make the wager.

Quote: DrawingDead

There are always a lot fewer quality fillies racing (and fewer races) than colts, and the chances of getting in to the Oaks with fewer qualifying points (or none) is a lot higher than for the Derby. They have starting slots for 14 in the Oaks, and here's the number of starters for each of the last 20 editions of the Kentucky Oaks:
-snip-
Full fields: 5 times; Undersubscribed: 15 times.
As long as she's fit & sound, I'd still consider that ticket very live.

Good point. Callback sits at #13 in points, but there are still a number of big filly races upcoming. I have watched a few of the Filly races and believe the division is very competitive this year. Might make for some solid Oaks/Derby Double or Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3 payouts, if one can find the winners....

Quote: Keeneone

I have watched a few of the Filly races and believe the division is very competitive this year. Might make for some solid Oaks/Derby Double or Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3 payouts, if one can find the winners....

This year, for no particular reason, I'm not well versed on the filly crop, so I don't have a grasp on how it compares to other years. I do think this is a lot deeper and stronger than average year for the colts.

Saturday March 28, 2015 - Meydan - UAE Derby Group 2 (1^3/16mile - 2million)

1 - MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 3 yrs. Bay C 6 (3-1-0)
2 - MOTAA (KSA) 3 yrs. Bay C 4 (3-1-0)
3 - ALNAJEM ALFAIZ (KSA) 3 yrs. Ch C 4 (3-0-1)
4 - SIR FEVER (URU) 3 yrs. DkB C 11 (10-1-0)
5 - FAITHFUL CREEK (IRE) 3 yrs. Bay C 7 (1-1-1)
6 - TAP THAT (JPN) 3 yrs. Gr C 4 (2-1-0)
7 - GOLDEN BAROWS (USA) 3 yrs. Ch C 4 (3-1-0)
8 - MY JOHNNY BE GOOD (USA) 3 yrs. Bay C 6 (2-1-2)
9 - MAFTOOL (USA) 3 yrs. Db/br C 7 (3-2-1)
10 - DEAR DOMUS (JPN) 3 yrs. Bay C 7 (3-0-0)

-Rematch of Mubtaahij vs Sir Fever and Mubtaahij vs Maftool, with a number of others added. My Johnny Be Good is shipping over from the USA after a 3rd in the Sam F. Davis and an 8th in the Tampa Bay Derby. Mubtaahij has already won at the distance over the track and probably has the slight edge in here. He also picks up a new rider (Christophe Soumillon) for this race.

Quote: Keeneone

My Johnny Be Good is shipping over from the USA after a 3rd in the Sam F. Davis and an 8th in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Well that could be interesting, if he gets a good trip and runs well enough to help get a little bit of a comparative read on any others from this field, if they come over. I have My Johnny Be Good's pedigree at an AWD of 7.1, and just at a quick glance he seems to have displayed roughly middling quality talent so far among the US 3 yo's.

Quote: DrawingDead

There are always a lot fewer quality fillies racing (and fewer races) than colts, and the chances of getting in to the Oaks with fewer qualifying points (or none) is a lot higher than for the Derby. They have starting slots for 14 in the Oaks, and here's the number of starters for each of the last 20 editions of the Kentucky Oaks:

2014 12
2013 10
2012 14
2011 13
2010 14
2009 7
2008 10
2007 14
2006 14
2005 7
2004 11
2002 9
2001 13
2000 14
1999 7
1998 13
1997 9
1996 6
1995 8
1994 7

Full fields: 5 times; Undersubscribed: 15 times.

As long as she's fit & sound, I'd still consider that ticket very live.

It seems like a super filly drives away a lot of competition. I'm worried that since we don't have it this year, and the oaks purse has been raised to one mil, it will get oversubscribed. But I'm still hopeful.

During this little pause before all the truly big stuff coming this weekend and next...

I've been thinking I should probably delve into more of the what, how, and why I go about my "AWD" pedigree numbers that I use and have often mentioned here, because I don't think anyone should buy into something from "SomeguyOntheinternet" and should have an opportunity to weigh the information with enough context to make their own independent judgments about what they want to make of it, if anything at all. But, I'm also not wanting to clutter things here too much with a lot of almost inevitably long-winded esoterica that would interest few, if any.

Well someone writing for Blood-Horse has done it for me, and rather well I think. I don't know anything about Avalyn Hunter, and her piece is specifically about one Derby prospect and an evaluation of his pedigree. But what I think her article manages to accomplish in effective straightforward easily digestible language is to go through the same process in narrative form, using clear words to do the same thing rather than leaving it in the form of a numerical picture of a spreadsheet or database.

Here is that, for anyone who may be interested. It isn't long, she is deliberately light on spitting out quantitative data, but it is exactly what I'm up to, and in going about the same thing in the same way in every respect it should provide an easy illustrative example to help folks decide what attention, if any, they choose to pay to my little "n.nf" pedigree numbers for this thing. It isn't hard, isn't even rocket measurement let alone science, anyone can learn to do it if they wish to take the time. But she has done it there in more readable fashion to be intuitively understandable for a general audience than what I'd have produced on the fly here:

Pedigree Analysis: Upstart

Quote: Avalyn Hunter @Blood-Horse (3/20/15)

Of the winners of this spring’s early graded stakes for 3-year-old males, Ralph Evans’ Upstart is clearly at or near the head of the class...

...<SNIP>...

Not so fast. Although Upstart has a better pedigree for getting a distance than many of his contemporaries, there is reason to think he might be better suited to intermediate distances. The reasons start with Flatter...

...<SNIP>...

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90646/pedigree-analysis-upstart#ixzz3VH2I9nfN

Quote: DrawingDead

Well that could be interesting, if he gets a good trip and runs well enough to help get a little bit of a comparative read on any others from this field, if they come over. I have My Johnny Be Good's pedigree at an AWD of 7.1, and just at a quick glance he seems to have displayed roughly middling quality talent so far among the US 3 yo's.

I agree. My Johnny Be Good had been competitive in his races up until his last. If you can look past the Tampa Bay Derby, he is a decent sort. It is interesting his connections will ship him out on what I assume is an expensive/taxing trip. Granted it is a 2 million dollar race, and if he somehow manages a 3rd place finish (or better) he may have the points (20 for 3rd place) to Run for the Roses. It seems a tall order to succeed in the UAE Derby, but we won't know until they run the race.

The wagering interests are out for the final Churchill Downs pari-mutual Derby future wager Pool #4, opening this Friday and closing Sunday, with Battaglia's "morning line" opinion of odds. After the published morning line the second number I've listed for each betting interest is the current (as of about 10:20am Pacific) odds line of William Hill for comparison, in parentheses. I think Wm. Hill tends to be a little slow on the draw to move their numbers in response to the market, but they are what I have available in front of me at the moment among the the fixed odds future books:

Pool #4 list in .pdf

1 American Pharoah 9-2 (5-1) 7.0f
2 Ami’s Flatter* 50-1 (60-1) 7.1f
3 Bold Conquest* 50-1 (75-1) 7.3f
4 Bolo 20-1 (22-1) 7.6f
5 Carpe Diem 6-1 (7-1) 7.9f
6 Daredevil 30-1 (40-1) 7.1f
7 Dortmund 5-1 (7-1) 7.0f
8 Dubai Sky* 30-1 (40-1) 7.2f
9 El Kabeir 20-1 (16-1) 7.2f
10 Far From Over 15-1 (10-1) 8.0f
11 Far Right 30-1 (25-1) 6.5f
12 Firing Line 12-1 (10-1) 6.9f
13 Frosted* 30-1 (30-1) 7.5f
14 International Star 20-1 (18-1) 7.4f
15 Itsaknockout 30-1 (15-1) 7.5f
16 Keen Ice 50-1 (40/1) 7.4f
17 Madefromlucky* 30-1 (50-1) 7.6f
18 Materiality* 20-1 (40-1) 7.4f
19 Mr. Z 50-1 (30-1) 7.0f
20 Mubtaahij* 30-1 (75-1) 8.6f
21 Prospect Park 15-1 (20-1) 7.2f
22 Upstart 15-1 (12-1) 6.9f
23 War Story (g) 50-1 (40-1) 7.0f
24 Mutuel Field – All Other 3YOs 8-1 (n/a)

*New wagering interest in KDFW Pool 4
(g) - gelding

While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.

EDIT: Added pedigree 'average winning distance' numbers.

Thanks for posting the list. After a quick look, I was surprised to see Frosted return to the list. To be clear, I thinks he belongs, but why remove him and then add him back? What do they know that we do not?
I am sure you will add the AWD for the new shooters when you have time (specifically the ones with red #'s).
International Star is already in the gate, is well qualified for the distance (DD AWD 7.4), and is running this weekend in the LA Derby (a race he does not need to win). Yet, Far From Over (10 points), Bolo (10 points), Materiality (0 points, but will likely run in the Florida Derby this weekend) have similar or lower M/L odds. They do not even have enough points to make the Derbyyet.
Does the field have any value here @ 8-1 (or higher) in this last chance future pool? There will be 4 more "big" preps after his pool closes and a non-listed horse could still rise up with enough points to run. Maybe the Field/(with a horse or 2 you already have money on) exacta box is a way to hedge in this pool.
Example: You already have $100 on AP and Dortmund to win. So bet Field/AP,Dortmund exacta Box (whatever $ amount you want).

Quote: Keeneone

I was surprised to see Frosted return to the list.

So was I. I get the feeling they may have been scratching for the last addition or two to replace those that have been left by the side of the road. But, I understand he did just put in a fast workout (I don't know how hard he was pushed to do it) and McLaughlin is planning to run him in the Wood. Maybe he should pray for snow in Queens on the first Saturday in April.

I've edited the list above to include my AWD figures.

Quote: Keeneone

Field/AP,Dortmund exacta Box (whatever $ amount you want).

So a (field / cobalt + cobalt) wager.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/is-cobalt-a-killer-in-horses/

This is truly what concerns me most about my future wagers for this. Baffert's "veterinarian" is not in those pedigree numbers.

Going to be an exciting race in Dubai on Saturday with the two Godolphin colts taking on Mubtaahij to see who might have the chance to run in the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd (also known as "boxing day").
Mubtaahij has drawn 1 which is the winning est draw at the carnival to date on the new dirt surface. Trainer de Kock however is not so keen on this draw as he doesn't want too many to cross him if he comes out a little slowly. Fair comment I guess.

I have already backed Mubtaahij for the Derby so i hope he can win or run 2nd to at least have a shot at the roses.....

Saturday March 28, 2015 - Fairgrounds - Louisiana Derby Grade 2 (1^1/8mile - 750k)

1 - Stanford
2 - Mr. Z - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
3 - Defondo
4 - Fusaichi Flame
5 - A Day in Paradise
6 - War Story - 3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
7 - Keen Ice - 3rd,4th Derby Future horse.
8 - St. Joe Bay
9 - International Star - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby Future horse.

-Has the look of a good competitive race. 4 Derby future listed horses. Mr Z goes blinkers off, but may go to the front with (maybe) Stanford an St. Joe Bay. International Star (going for a Fairgrounds 3yo stakes sweep) and Keen Ice will be rolling late. War Story will probably be just off the pace and should be a factor again. He looked like a winner in the last 2, but International Star beat him each time.