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beachbumbabs
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October 20th, 2013 at 11:05:03 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Unfortunately, as I recall, Babs was forced to take a bye earlier in the season so I THINK that means she must take an 0-5 this week. (If so, sorry Babs.)



I agree, Ed; my bad, and those are the rules. I still have time to recover. Best of luck to the top bunch, but I ain't done yet!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
KeyserSoze
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October 20th, 2013 at 11:18:55 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

You can grade the picks even before the games have started.



So how did I do? Another 1-4 week?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
EdCollins
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October 20th, 2013 at 11:22:11 AM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

So how did I do? Another 1-4 week?


Ha ha! Good one.

Nope, much better! You're .500 right now! :)
EdCollins
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October 20th, 2013 at 4:50:43 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Boz, Miplet, BeachBumBabs and NCFatCat all appear to be skipping this week.


fyi... I just now noticed NCFatCat skipped last week also.
EdCollins
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October 20th, 2013 at 4:55:02 PM permalink
If you want to make a lot of money, just (1) find out who my Confidence Pick is and then (2) bet on the other side.
EdCollins
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October 20th, 2013 at 5:00:03 PM permalink
If you don't have a pick for this evening's game, then you're rooting for the Colts and the Under. (Because there's much more action on Denver and the Over than there is on Indy and the Under.)
Malaru
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October 20th, 2013 at 6:49:56 PM permalink
If Denver beats the spread Ill be a nice 4-1 again. :) And considering how the top-3's action went I will be looking nice. :D
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Malaru
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October 20th, 2013 at 9:02:03 PM permalink
Well..sheet... 5-1 sounded so much better then the 3-3 I came out at. :(
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
EdCollins
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October 20th, 2013 at 9:16:23 PM permalink
Evening,

This is what I have for the current standings.

For those of you reading this, please check your own totals for accuracy. It looks to be correct. Mission, obviously, will confirm everything sometime after tomorrow night's game. Note that these current standings include an 0-5 forfeit week for Babs.

Congrats to Knuckleball, 'Mimbo, and 'Carumba for a nice week.

5-1: Knuckleball3, BoyMimbo, AyeCarumba
4-2: ZoomZoom8, Wizard
3-2: Paradigm, Mission146, KeyserSoze. Beardgoat
3-3: StrictlyAP, SooPoo, Rstrata, Malaru, FRGamble, FourFiveFace, Edgelooker, EdCollins, DuckManKilla, Aluisio
2-3: YouCanBetOnThat, Terapined, OdiousGambit, MidWestAP, JohnZimbo
2-4: Ten2Win, SteelDCo. JW17, DeeDubbs, AssWhooperMcDaddy
1-4: Kmumf, Buzzard
1-5: TGarrettCPA, RDW4Potus, JML24, 10DollarBri
0-5: Jon, BeachBumBabs
0-6: Vendman1, TheCesspit

(The latest version of the grading program produces these totals and the formatting codes to display the table below.)


Name Wins Losses % Owes
StrictlyAP 25 11 69.44%-
AyeCarumba 23 17 57.50%$11.94
BoyMimbo 23 17 57.50%$11.94
Malaru 22 17 56.41%$13.03
TheCessPit 22 17 56.41%$13.03
Boz 16 13 55.17%$14.27
Buzzard 18 16 52.94%$16.50
Wizard 19 18 51.35%$18.09
RDW4POTUS 20 19 51.28%$18.16
ZoomZoom8 20 19 51.28%$18.16
MidWestAP 13 13 50.00%$19.44
Miplet 14 14 50.00%$19.44
FRGamble 15 16 48.39%$21.06
EdgeLooker 19 21 47.50%$21.94
JML24 17 19 47.22%$22.22
KeyserSoze 16 18 47.06%$22.39
DeeDubbs 19 22 46.34%$23.10
Ten2Win 19 22 46.34%$23.10
Knuckleball3 18 21 46.15%$23.29
10DollarBri 16 19 45.71%$23.73
JW17 16 19 45.71%$23.73
SteelDCo 16 19 45.71%$23.73
YouCanBetOnThat 15 18 45.45%$23.99
Paradigm 17 21 44.74%$24.71
Vendman1 17 21 44.74%$24.71
JohnZimbo 16 20 44.44%$25.00
BeardGoat 15 19 44.12%$25.33
BeachBumBabs 14 20 41.18%$28.27
KMUMF 14 20 41.18%$28.27
EdCollins 16 23 41.03%$28.42
DuckManKilla 16 24 40.00%$29.44
Jon 12 18 40.00%$29.44
OdiousGambit 13 21 38.24%$31.21
Mission146 12 20 37.50%$25.00
Rstrata 11 19 36.67%$32.78
Terapined 12 22 35.29%$34.15
TGarrettCPA 14 28 33.33%$36.11
FourFiveFace 13 27 32.50%$36.94
Aluisio 12 27 30.77%$38.68
SOOPOO 12 29 29.27%$40.18
AssWhooperMcDaddy 11 27 28.95%$40.50
NCFatCat 6 20 23.08%$46.37
MinnesotaJoe 0 5 0.00%$69.44
Totals 674 836 44.64%$1,101.26
Mission146
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October 21st, 2013 at 1:31:21 PM permalink
Just for the record, NCFatCat only absorbs the 0-5 in the event that he chooses to continue. Otherwise, NCFatCat's record may remain frozen as it was prior to this week.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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October 21st, 2013 at 4:31:00 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Just for the record, NCFatCat only absorbs the 0-5 in the event that he chooses to continue. Otherwise, NCFatCat's record may remain frozen as it was prior to this week.


Ah, got it.

Table edited.
FrGamble
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October 22nd, 2013 at 5:59:37 AM permalink
Man the Wizard has come storming back. My own secret little goal is to finish ahead of the main man Mike.
Wizard
Administrator
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October 22nd, 2013 at 8:26:46 AM permalink
Quote: FrGamble

Man the Wizard has come storming back. My own secret little goal is to finish ahead of the main man Mike.



I smell a wager forming. I already proudly have a rosary, so how about a simple statue of the Virgin Mary against your choice of:

1. Framed print of Dogs Playing Poker.
2. I'll make a YouTube video of myself saying five Hail Marys and two Act of Contritions.
3. An antique Maryland license plate. Meaning it will be at least 50 years old.

I'm open to other suggestions.

On another topic, I see as a group we're going 674-836. Assuming we were all randomly picking, the odds of results that bad would be 1 in 65,000. I suspect others are copying my strategy last year of taking advantage of soft lines.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
LarryS
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October 23rd, 2013 at 9:47:23 AM permalink
I noticed (and its been commented on)....that a very large percentage is under 50 percent in correct picks.

I realize that 5 picks in general is the average number for many competitions.

But in reality ...does anyone think the percent would be higher if people could bet their top 2 or 3?

Are confidence picks at a higher percent?

also, as an aside,(and the reason I only put my money down a hour before the games on sunday).......friday is a big day for the announcement of not playing due to injury, as well as gametime decision holdouts. Making picks earlier to me in a non competition situation is counter productive.

so does picking 5 under those conditions lend itself to lower percentages.?
EdCollins
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October 23rd, 2013 at 3:51:56 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

Are confidence picks at a higher percent?


I'm at work and I don't have the figures in front of me, but as I recall, Confidence Picks were at a lower percent.

I think Confidence Picks were 41 "point something" percent and Regular picks were 45 "point something" percent.
LarryS
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October 23rd, 2013 at 4:03:52 PM permalink
wow...
LarryS
LarryS
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October 23rd, 2013 at 4:03:59 PM permalink
wow...
FrGamble
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October 23rd, 2013 at 8:09:12 PM permalink
Dear Wizard I will happily put a statue of the Virgin Mary (Guadalupe might be a good choice) against a meal with you in Vegas. I've been thinking about trying to visit for awhile and maybe that will be the incentive I need to get out there this summer. What do you say?

I know it goes without saying that you would give a good and honorable place at home for the image of the Blessed Mother, but since I am confident I will win it won't really matter. :)
Mission146
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October 23rd, 2013 at 8:53:47 PM permalink
Greetings!

The updated Standings can be found here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post282327

With the Week 7 Results above.

1.) We did not have a particularly good week this week with Regular Picks going 75-89 for .457 (Sadly, that actually pulls Regular Picks up by a small fraction) and Confidence Picks went 8-18 for .308. Overall, our record was 83-107 for .437.

2.) This brings our overall record on Regular Picks to 548-655 for .455 and Confidence Picks to 63-88 for .417. In total, we are 611-743 for .451. Our current average is about 193 games per week, so we'd need a record of 163-30 to end up at 774-773 overall.

3.) I don't really pay any attention to everyone's picks when I make my own, which is evident by the fact that I am presently running worse than our average, but I think I might try a new system of just fading Confidence Picks!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 23rd, 2013 at 9:01:41 PM permalink
Greetings!

This week's Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post282330

Out of four home dogs, three are Jacksonville, Minnesota and St. Louis, yuck! Jacksonville plays without a team every week, Minnesota went ahead and played without a quarterback last week, and St. Louis lost their quarterback last week.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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October 25th, 2013 at 9:27:54 AM permalink
Holy cow! Out of 44 pickers we only have ONE who exceeds 58%!!!! Can someone figure out the likelihood of us having 44 pickers through 7 NFL weeks with no more than one hitting 58% or higher? A billion to one against?
thecesspit
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October 25th, 2013 at 9:48:25 AM permalink
About 0.4%.

35 games, >58% is a 21-14 record. Chance of getting that (or better) at random is 15%

Chance of of only having one hit when 44 take a go at 15% of exactly one person to hit is 0.4%. 1 or 0 is 0.5%.

So 1 in 200 if it was a fair coin flip game.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Mission146
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October 25th, 2013 at 8:59:47 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 8 reminders have been sent.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 27th, 2013 at 1:35:24 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 8 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post283582
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
terapined
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October 27th, 2013 at 7:57:06 AM permalink
I'm back with the rundown of our picks.(Last weekend was camping up at the beautiful Spirit of the Suwanee Music Park and Campground attending the Magnolia Music Festival)

Most Love
Falcons 15
Bills 12
Jets 12

Least Love
Cards 0
49'ers 2

Most Action
Browns/Chiefs 25
Bills/Saints 21
Seahawks/Rams 21

Least Action
Cowboys/Lions 13

Most lopsided action team picks
Falcons 15 Cards 0
Jags 11 49'ers 2

Even action team picks
Giants 4 Eagles 4

Notable action
Giants Eagles 7 unders and no overs
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
10DollarBri
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October 27th, 2013 at 12:08:25 PM permalink
I thought it may be interesting to see how a sports book has fared against our betting so far. The table assumes a $10 bet plus $1 vig per pick.




Total bets ATS Paid to winners Book profit or (loss) Total bets O/U Paid to winners Book profit or (loss)
Week 1 $2057 $1866 $191 $396 $462 ($66)
Week 2 $2211 $1714 $497 $319 $378 ($59)
Week 3 $2044 $1604 $640 $264 $210 $54
Week 4 $2123 $2090 $33 $396 $399 ($3)
Week 5 $2101 $1680 $421 $308 $357 ($49)
Week 6 $1969 $1869 $100 $451 $483 ($32)
Week 7 $2013 $1428 $585 $363 $483 ($120)
Totals$14518$12251$2467$2497$2772($275)



Thanks Ed Collins for sharing your WOV game calculator. http://www.edcollins.com/wov_nfl_football_contest_calculator_version_1.52.xlsm
I know nothing!
EdCollins
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October 27th, 2013 at 3:04:06 PM permalink
Quote: 10DollarBri

Thanks Ed Collins for sharing your WOV game calculator...


You're welcome. No problem. I hope it helps and is useful. It was certainly good practice for me to write it.

A subsequent version will recognize JAX for Jacksonville. (JW17 used this abbreviation this week. Note the program already recognizes Jaguars, Jags, Jag, Jacksonville, Jack, and Jac, but not Jax! Apparently I forgot all about "Jax," which is actually quite common.)
terapined
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October 27th, 2013 at 3:11:49 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

You're welcome. No problem. I hope it helps and is useful. It was certainly good practice for me to write it.

A subsequent version will recognize JAX for Jacksonville. (JW17 used this abbreviation this week. Note the program already recognizes Jaguars, Jags, Jag, Jacksonville, Jack, and Jac, but not Jax! Apparently I forgot all about "Jax," which is actually quite common.)



JAX is the airport code which some people use
Here are some more airport codes(most are 1st 3 letters city or something that makes sense, but not always) that are a bit unusual. Might want to include those as well.
Kansas City - MCI
Baltimore - BWI
Detroit - DTW
New Orleans - MSY
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Mission146
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October 27th, 2013 at 6:01:36 PM permalink
Another 3-2 week, I'll take it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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October 27th, 2013 at 6:15:10 PM permalink
Congrats, Mission! Half my day is still up in the air with the night game.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
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October 27th, 2013 at 6:27:39 PM permalink
Thanks!

It's still the worst year of my life for Picks, just a little less so. If I can go 3-2 every week, I'll finish one over .500, though, so there's hope.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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October 27th, 2013 at 7:52:19 PM permalink
Not to count chickens, but it's looking like 4-2. An improvement I needed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
boymimbo
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October 27th, 2013 at 8:39:51 PM permalink
And I sucked the proverbial egg this week.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Beardgoat
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October 28th, 2013 at 5:22:54 PM permalink
I'm 12-4 over the last 3 weeks to finally get to .500.... Feels good. Too bad strictlyAP is doing so well
miplet
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October 28th, 2013 at 8:41:49 PM permalink
Argh. Doing over/unders next week.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
10DollarBri
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October 29th, 2013 at 3:47:20 PM permalink
WOV sports book results after 8 weeks. The table assumes a $10 bet plus $1 vig per pick.



Total bets ATS Paid to winners Book profit or (loss) Total bets O/U Paid to winners Book profit or (loss)
Week 1 $2057 $1866 $191 $396 $462 ($66)
Week 2 $2211 $1714 $497 $319 $378 ($59)
Week 3 $2044 $1604 $640 $264 $210 $54
Week 4 $2123 $2090 $33 $396 $399 ($3)
Week 5 $2101 $1680 $421 $308 $357 ($49)
Week 6 $1969 $1869 $100 $451 $483 ($32)
Week 7 $2013 $1428 $585 $363 $483 ($120)
Week 8$1826$1386$440$572$714($142)
Totals$16344$13637$2907$3069$3486($417)


I know that with a small sampling of 41 betters this doesn't mean much, but it makes me wonder if the lines aren't skewed to encourage betting the wrong side.....on the other hand we might just suck as a group:) It looks like the over/under might be the better bet.
I know nothing!
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 8:34:47 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Update Standings can be found here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285168

The Week 8 game-by-game results are in the post above.

1.) We went 71-111 for .390 on our Regular Picks this week while going 6-12 for .333 on Confidence Picks. I'm telling you guys that I am really tempted to adopt a betting strategy of just fading all of the Confidence Picks.

2.) Our record after Week 8 is 619-766 for .447 on Regular Picks and 69-100 for .408 on Confidence Picks. The combined record is 688-866 for .443, overall. Due to a few players having dropped out, we now average 194.25 picks per week, so at 194, 186-8 would bring us to 874-874.

We will not go 186-8.

3.) Lines are coming up within just a few minutes, stay tuned!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 8:41:49 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 9 Lines are as follows:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285178

There's going to be an NFL first this week! This is Jacksonville's bye week, and they're still getting seven points!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
zoomzoom8
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October 30th, 2013 at 8:52:22 PM permalink
Mission, just wanted to bring up a couple errors in picks grading; here are my picks and grade from the official thread:

Jets OVER 41 (loss)
Cowboys +3 (win)
Seahawks OVER 42.5 (loss)
Patriots -6.5 (win)
Browns OVER 39.5 (loss)

However, the Jets-Bengals game's final score was 9-49 and the Browns-Chiefs final score was 17-23; both of which are correct picks. Others had picks that were graded incorrectly as well. Might want to double-check.

Thanks for all your hard work!
EdCollins
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:00:19 PM permalink
Mission,

Yea, something's wrong. It looks like many of the picks that had OVERS/UNDERS are reversed. You show them as wrong when they're right and right when they're wrong.

The grading calculator at my end is working fine. I can't figure out what how you could come up with those results.
EdCollins
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:03:18 PM permalink
Unless the final score wasn't entered correctly in the Results tab. That's the first thing to check.
Buzzard
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:08:05 PM permalink
Possibly some McNugget crumbs caused this problem ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Malaru
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:30:50 PM permalink
yea, something real wrong.. I know I didnt go 0-6 last week- though it was a bad week not THAT bad.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:33:04 PM permalink
ANNOUNCEMENT

THE WEEK 8 STANDINGS ARE NOT CORRECT DUE TO THE FACT THAT EVERY SINGLE, "OVER," PICK WAS GRADED AS A LOSS. THIS WILL BE HAND-CORRECTED NO LATER THAN THIS TIME TOMORROW EVENING WITH THE UPDATED STANDINGS.

THE WEEK 9 LINES SHALL STAND AS POSTED, AS THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS WITH THOSE.

I APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED.

THANK YOU,
MISSION146
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:34:22 PM permalink
EdCollins,

Thank God you're here!

If everything is correct on your end, would you be so kind as to E-Mail me your current file, please? I'll just download it and roll with it from now on. I've been using the one from three versions ago, anyway, just because I already had everything on there.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:35:27 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Unless the final score wasn't entered correctly in the Results tab. That's the first thing to check.



The scores are entered correctly, for some reason, only O/U's are affected. All the spread results seem to be correct.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 9:54:56 PM permalink
Greetings!

Thanks to EdCollins, who is indeed the man, the erros have been Edited out and the Standings after Week 8 are as follows:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285168\

Individual game results in the post above, Week 9 Lines below.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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October 30th, 2013 at 10:58:52 PM permalink
The error was mine. I failed to account for something.

If anyone is interested, the automated grading program was comparing the game scores, which where NUMERIC fields, to the over/under entries as Mission entered them, which somehow turned into TEXT fields.

Whoops. This is an invalid comparison and thus produced the wrong results.

This is my error. I should have thought of this. Obviously, all of the game scores and all of our over/under entries are always going to be NUMERIC. I should have allowed for a possibility that somehow these fields might accidentally be entered or changed from numeric to text, and thus FORCED all entries to be numeric, no matter what format they actually are entered in.

A future version will correct this.

Sorry for the confusion! :)

Good luck to all in Week 9!
Mission146
Mission146
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October 30th, 2013 at 11:25:39 PM permalink
Yup, what EdCollins said happened. I actually knew that, just wanted to see if he could figure it out...j/k

I think I understand a little, I screwed up and made them text fields somehow, I'm sorry about that.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Paradigm
Paradigm
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October 31st, 2013 at 9:49:10 AM permalink
Thanks for all the effort both Ed & Mission are putting in to this......despite my miserable performance, it has made NFL football more fun for me this year.

As a follow up question, it seemed like my previous weeks Over Under picks were graded correctly (at least I didn't notice them being wrong before). Did something get changed in the spreadsheet calculator between the previous weeks and this week's glitch?
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