WoV Picks Game 2013 (Discussion Thread)

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October 6th, 2013 at 9:56:17 AM permalink

Oh, crap!!!! I just saw this.

I think I somehow scrolled to the wrong week of Pinnacle numbers in the WoV Official thread, Ed. I am sooo dead. Sigh....

Edit; Yeah, that's what I did. I started with the post that listed only the over/under, noticed that the Vikes didn't have a line so must be bye week, scrolled up looking for the lines, ended up on the wrong week, went; "Hey, the Vikes are playing after all!" and did the whole sheet off that post. I guess I'm completely screwed for this week. I don't know if I can take this as my bye week or if it even makes a difference whether I did, mathematically. Crud. I so wanted to catch Buzzard.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

EdCollins

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October 6th, 2013 at 10:03:48 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
Oh, crap!!!! I just saw this.
I think I somehow scrolled to the wrong week of Pinnacle numbers in the WoV Official thread, Ed. I am sooo dead. Sigh....

I'm guessing Mission will void all five picks, and give you a full bye week, even though one pick is actually valid. (That's what I would do.)

Buzzard

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October 6th, 2013 at 11:30:06 AM permalink

" Crud. I so wanted to catch Buzzard. "

That's ok. Like most others you will be saying wait till next year soon.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

beachbumbabs

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October 6th, 2013 at 11:33:28 AM permalink

A smart man allows himself to be caught, eventually....I'm just sayin'....:)

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Buzzard

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October 6th, 2013 at 11:40:02 AM permalink

I know babs darling. I found out too late a man chases a woman till she catches him.

And thanks to Acesofspades, I now have to send you a check every month. GRRRRRR !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

beachbumbabs

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October 6th, 2013 at 11:46:44 AM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I know babs darling. I found out too late a man chases a woman till she catches him.

And thanks to Acesofspades, I now have to send you a check every month. GRRRRRR !

Disclaimer to the 2 PM'ers asking and other casual readers,

Buzz and I are forum buddies, have never met, and have nothing going on the side in real life. He is a happily married grandfather, and I am a happily divorced woman. It's a running joke that he started and I accepted. We are both Merrie Pranksters in the archaic and hopefully eternal sense.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Buzzard

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October 6th, 2013 at 11:48:26 AM permalink

LIAR LIAR PANTS ON FIRE.

Nothing like a bitter ex-wife.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Johnzimbo

Johnzimbo

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October 6th, 2013 at 1:24:44 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
Disclaimer to the 2 PM'ers asking and other casual readers,

Buzz and I are forum buddies, have never met, and have nothing going on the side in real life. He is a happily married grandfather, and I am a happily divorced woman. It's a running joke that he started and I accepted. We are both Merrie Pranksters in the archaic and hopefully eternal sense.

Just when I thought were gonna have to come up with a cute name for this couple, like Bradgelina...I was going to suggest BeachBuzz since it rhymes with peachfuzz

beachbumbabs

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October 6th, 2013 at 1:25:51 PM permalink

Hahahah! Love it. Use it.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

boymimbo

boymimbo

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October 6th, 2013 at 1:38:59 PM permalink

Good weeks so far for Vendman1 (3/3), FrGamble (4/4). Looks like StrictlyAP will maintain his lead at 4/5 so far -- courage to pick that Over with Confidence on the Eagles/Giants game.

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

terapined

terapined

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October 6th, 2013 at 2:37:20 PM permalink

Quote: KeyserSoze
If win half, lose half, that's the same as having even action on both sides. That's how the books see it.

It's a myth that books have equal action on both sides. It rarely happens.

They have 11/10 on their side. That's all that matters.

So far so good for a bookie if he handled our afternoon action for just straight picks.
129 picks x 11 bucks equals 1419.00 bet.
63 winners early games x 21 equals 1323.00
Bookie clears 96.00

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

deedubbs

deedubbs

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October 6th, 2013 at 5:44:00 PM permalink

Quote: boymimbo
Good weeks so far for Vendman1 (3/3), FrGamble (4/4). Looks like StrictlyAP will maintain his lead at 4/5 so far -- courage to pick that Over with Confidence on the Eagles/Giants game.

Don't forget about me! 4/5 with ATL on Monday.

I'm lurking in the middle of the pack, but heating up with 8-2-1 over the last two weeks.

Malaru

Malaru

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October 6th, 2013 at 6:21:37 PM permalink

Today was my first bad week since the first week- Pats let me down, Ponies let me down, seahawks let me down... ugh, thank you saints & Chiefs for not making it a complete failure. - 2-4 this week.

"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld

JW17

JW17

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October 6th, 2013 at 8:32:34 PM permalink

Well I was the one who took the 49ers. Unfortunatly the rest of my picks have been losers, including my first confidence pick of the year, I do have the Chargers tonight to maybe make the week somewhat ok

YouCanBetOnThat

YouCanBetOnThat

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October 7th, 2013 at 5:37:59 AM permalink

5-0 last week, 0-5 this week.

That's what you call perfection, baby!

YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler

Mission146

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October 7th, 2013 at 8:36:27 AM permalink

Quote: EdCollins
I'm guessing Mission will void all five picks, and give you a full bye week, even though one pick is actually valid. (That's what I would do.)

EdCollins,

You have guessed right, this week shall constitute BBB's skip week.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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October 7th, 2013 at 8:37:50 AM permalink

I suck. I just suck.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

beachbumbabs

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October 7th, 2013 at 8:44:56 AM permalink

Thank you, Mission; it was my error, and I would have accepted whatever ruling you made.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Mission146

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October 7th, 2013 at 9:16:45 AM permalink

Don't thank me, I'm 1-4, I suck, people who suck shouldn't be thanked! LOL

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

boymimbo

boymimbo

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October 7th, 2013 at 9:39:10 AM permalink

Only 15 of us are 50% or better. As a whole, we all suck. I'm going to end up in 2nd or 3rd place after this week with only 58 - 62%. Our best player is batting 66.7%.

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

terapined

terapined

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October 7th, 2013 at 9:49:12 AM permalink

I'm right up there with sucking. Every single week 500 or worse performance.
I'm switching it up, no longer betting as the gambler who bets on who I think will win which isn't working for me.
Instead going to make picks as a football fan picking who I want to win as a fan.
Probabbly same result, I'm hopeless.
At least Yahoo is sending 120.00 into my paypal account for winning 1st place in a money fantasy baseball league which I'll probally be sending most of that to our winner at the rate I'm going.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

thecesspit

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October 7th, 2013 at 10:14:50 AM permalink

3-3 this week, I would have dropped the Lions +7.5 like a hot potato as soon as I heard Calvin Johnson wasn't playing and taken the otherside. I'm guessing the line moved on that news....

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Mission146

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October 7th, 2013 at 10:34:55 AM permalink

Quote: terapined
I'm right up there with sucking. Every single week 500 or worse performance.
I'm switching it up, no longer betting as the gambler who bets on who I think will win which isn't working for me.
Instead going to make picks as a football fan picking who I want to win as a fan.
Probabbly same result, I'm hopeless.
At least Yahoo is sending 120.00 into my paypal account for winning 1st place in a money fantasy baseball league which I'll probally be sending most of that to our winner at the rate I'm going.

I'm going to put the names of all of the teams in a hat and draw them out, teams resulting in a Doey-Don't Pick will be resolved on a first team picked basis.

J/K, nothing to do but keep trying.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

KeyserSoze

KeyserSoze

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October 7th, 2013 at 11:18:19 AM permalink

Add my name to the list of people that suck.

If nothing else, I know how to go 1-4. Maybe I'll catch a break somewhere and go 2-3 one of these weeks?

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.

EdCollins

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October 7th, 2013 at 2:23:10 PM permalink

And add MY name to that list of the people that suck.

Late yesterday afternoon I was 2-2... with a single two-point Confidence Pick on the line for the Sunday night game. And since 4-2 is SOOOO much nicer than 2-4, I had a level of interest in that game I otherwise wouldn't have had.

But of course I like the Texans and of course it wasn't even close, and so of course I sucked again, giving me a 2-4 weekend result, instead of a respectable 4-2.

The good news is it's still early in the season. :)

The bad news is it might get worse! :(

deedubbs

deedubbs

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October 7th, 2013 at 6:54:22 PM permalink

Brutal. If the Falcons score to end the half, I might cover the 10.5, but not being able to run a killer.

Looks like I'll be 4-2

terapined

terapined

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October 8th, 2013 at 9:19:01 PM permalink

Standings after week 5? Not in contention, just curious where a I stand. From the coments, I seem to have alot of company below 500

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

EdCollins

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October 8th, 2013 at 10:16:10 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Standings after week 5? Not in contention, just curious where a I stand. From the comments, I seem to have alot of company below 500

These SHOULD be the standings, I believe. Mission or someone else will confirm. If I've made a mistake, I'm sure someone will catch it.

(This is my first "table" in this forum, so hopefully I didn't screw it up.)

Name	Wins	Losses	%	Owes
StrictlyAP	16	8	66.67%	-
TheCessPit	17	11	60.71%	$5.95
BoyMimbo	17	12	58.62%	$8.05
Buzzard	14	10	58.33%	$8.33
Malaru	16	12	57.14%	$9.52
JML24	14	11	56.00%	$10.67
10DollarBri	13	11	54.17%	$12.50
AyeCarumba	15	13	53.57%	$13.10
BeachBumBabs	12	11	52.17%	$14.49
Miplet	12	11	52.17%	$14.49
RDW4POTUS	14	13	51.85%	$14.81
DeeDubbs	15	14	51.72%	$14.94
Boz	12	12	50.00%	$16.67
Jon	10	10	50.00%	$16.67
MidWestAP	8	8	50.00%	$16.67
Vendman1	13	13	50.00%	$16.67
FRGamble	12	13	48.00%	$18.67
JohnZimbo	12	14	46.15%	$20.51
JW17	11	13	45.83%	$20.83
KMUMF	11	13	45.83%	$20.83
EdCollins	12	15	44.44%	$22.22
Paradigm	12	15	44.44%	$22.22
SteelDCo	10	13	43.48%	$23.19
YouCanBetOnThat	10	13	43.48%	$23.19
EdgeLooker	12	16	42.86%	$23.81
OdiousGambit	10	14	41.67%	$25.00
Ten2Win	12	17	41.38%	$25.29
ZoomZoom8	11	16	40.74%	$25.93
Wizard	10	15	40.00%	$26.67
DuckManKilla	11	17	39.29%	$27.38
KeyserSoze	9	15	37.50%	$29.17
Terapined	9	15	37.50%	$29.17
Rstrata	7	12	36.84%	$29.82
Mission146	8	14	36.36%	$25.00
BeardGoat	8	15	34.78%	$31.88
Knuckleball3	9	18	33.33%	$33.33
TGarrettCPA	10	20	33.33%	$33.33
FourFiveFace	9	19	32.14%	$34.52
Aluisio	7	20	25.93%	$40.74
AssWhooperMcDaddy	7	20	25.93%	$40.74
NCFatCat	6	20	23.08%	$43.59
SOOPOO	5	24	17.24%	$49.43
MinnesotaJoe	0	5	0.00%	$66.67

Mission146

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October 8th, 2013 at 10:33:47 PM permalink

Those seem right, except I'm actually 22-0.

I'm going to have the Official Standings up tomorrow, I apologize for the inconvenience, but the file is on my USB port, which I forgot at home. I should start keeping that thing on my keychain!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

EdCollins

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October 8th, 2013 at 11:40:17 PM permalink

fyi...

Creating that table took me at least 20 minutes... and it seemed like 30. (I also wasn't even sure I was doing it correctly.)

No more. The latest version of the calculator (1.42) now includes an optional switch to create that table for the user automatically.

If desired, the program creates a small text file in the root folder of your c:\ drive. The contents of the text file contain the current standings, along with the Wizard's formatting codes to display the data in a table. The entire contents of the text file should be cut and pasted here in this forum.

http://www.edcollins.com/wov_nfl_football_contest_calculator_version_1.42.xlsm

(This latest version contains all of the predictions and final NFL scores up through Week 5.)

Mission146

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October 9th, 2013 at 2:08:44 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 5 Results can be found here, with the Standings immediately below:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post277205

1.) At 67-104 Regular Picks, that was just a God-Awful week with us going .392. Confidence Picks gave us a bit of an improvement, going 15-9 for .625 resulting in an overall record of 82-113 for .421.

2.) Our new overall record for Regular Picks is 376/483 for .438, which is worse than the .449 after last week, but our Confidence Picks caught up with 46-59 also making them .438. Including Confidence Picks, our overall record was .442 after last week, so we still fall a bit in the grand scheme of things.

3.) Positive Variance to all for Week 6, Lines will be posted in roughly seven hours.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

thecesspit

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October 9th, 2013 at 2:45:41 PM permalink

Buzz, Buzz, Buzz.... what happened?

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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October 9th, 2013 at 2:47:36 PM permalink

Hello friends. Can someone tell me how many standard deviations I am south of a random guesser? I'm 5 up, 24 down. I am very consistent, by the way. I can be counted on to get one of my 5 picks correct each and every week. Fortunately for whomever I will end up paying, that pick is never my confidence pick.

As an aid to the forum members, i am pre-announcing my confidence pick this week as the Bengals.

Buzzard

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October 9th, 2013 at 3:26:57 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
Buzz, Buzz, Buzz.... what happened?

I was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

beachbumbabs

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October 9th, 2013 at 3:47:34 PM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.

I am so busted....;)

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Buzzard

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October 9th, 2013 at 3:52:42 PM permalink

But whether the checks clears or not, you are never flat busted.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

thecesspit

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October 9th, 2013 at 4:12:36 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Hello friends. Can someone tell me how many standard deviations I am south of a random guesser? I'm 5 up, 24 down. I am very consistent, by the way. I can be counted on to get one of my 5 picks correct each and every week. Fortunately for whomever I will end up paying, that pick is never my confidence pick.

As an aid to the forum members, i am pre-announcing my confidence pick this week as the Bengals.

Using a BiNomial distribution.... 5 from 29 correct coin flip guesses or less is 0.027%. Or 1 in 3662
10 or less is 6.8% or 1 in 14.

So yeah, that's pretty unlikely. However, given 50 players, there's a 1.5% chance someone would have only 5 correct guesses out of 29.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

thecesspit

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October 9th, 2013 at 4:12:55 PM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.

I hope she keeps it up :)

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Buzzard

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October 9th, 2013 at 4:13:22 PM permalink

Trust me, she can !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

boymimbo

boymimbo

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October 9th, 2013 at 9:24:35 PM permalink

The odds of you going 5 for 29 or worse in a 50% game is .0273%. However, you are actually 5 for 24 since five of your picks were confidence. That puts you in the 0.33% percentile.

Oh well. You'll come around?

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

Mission146

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October 9th, 2013 at 10:04:32 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 6 Lines have been posted, the source is Pinnacle, of course:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post277425

I think I'm going with tea leaves this week, it was either that or try a crystal ball, but tea's cheaper.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

thecesspit

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October 9th, 2013 at 10:04:52 PM permalink

No over/under?

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Mission146

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October 9th, 2013 at 10:12:49 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
No over/under?

Did I really do that again?

I'm sorry, I'm really busy trying to learn Excel today, so I'm getting distracted. I'll fix that now. I don't know how to ask the computer questions, and you're not allowed to use words, because that would be too easy.

Give me two minutes!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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Joined: May 15, 2012

October 9th, 2013 at 10:18:52 PM permalink

Here's another computer thing:

Why is it that, when you are typing something but there is something else in front of it, that every character you type disappears a character in front of your cursor, but usually this doesn't happen? It's a serious pain in the ass when it does happen, though, because you end up having to re-type an entire paragraph just to fix one word. How do I make that never happen?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Malaru

Malaru

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October 9th, 2013 at 10:25:09 PM permalink

That is because your insert key is turned off- just hit 'insert' when that happens and it will insert additional characters instead of overwrite them.

"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld

Malaru

Malaru

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October 9th, 2013 at 10:25:52 PM permalink

Or at least thats what usually fixes that issue for me...

"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld

Mission146