HotBlonde
HotBlonde
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February 14th, 2011 at 7:03:46 PM permalink
So the funny thing is even though I am pretty anal-retentive about seeking out and playing at the blackjack tables that have the lowest house edge (usually the 0.027% and 0.028% house edge tables) to lose the least amount of money as possible, I am always drawn to the Progressive slots during my trips and do play them a handful of times. I always have felt that if I were going to win big in Vegas, that would be the best way to walk away with a fortune (although statistically it doesn't make sense due to the super-high house edge on them).

Anyway, I was just wondering, from a mathematical point of view, how likely am I to actually hit and win the progressive?
Anyone know how to calculate the chance of winning one?
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mkl654321
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February 14th, 2011 at 7:14:31 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

Anyway, I was just wondering, from a mathematical point of view, how likely am I to actually hit and win the progressive?
Anyone know how to calculate the chance of winning one?



It's impossible to tell what the chance of winning the progressive is, in part because you don't know the overall payback percentage of the machine. You also have no idea of the odds against the progressive hitting on any one spin.

I use a simple, nonmathematical formula: hitting a big progressive is like being hit by lightning, marrying a movie star, dying in a car accident, or getting promoted to general manager: it always happens to someone else.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
NicksGamingStuff
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February 14th, 2011 at 7:16:57 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

it always happens to someone else.



This is perhaps one of the best observations and statements made on this site about winning!
DJTeddyBear
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February 14th, 2011 at 7:38:38 PM permalink
This was discussed in the thread, How do slot machines work? The chances are just under 1 in 50 million.

Quote: Wizard

According to John Robinson the odds of hitting Megabucks are 1 in 49,836,032. That is (1/368)^3. So I claim that for each reel the probability it steps on the jackpot symbol is 1/368.

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
HotBlonde
HotBlonde
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February 14th, 2011 at 9:21:37 PM permalink
Wow, that's really high! And the funny thing is you have to play "max bet" in order to even have a chance at winning the progressive. Let's assume I'm sitting at a progressive machine where it's $2.50 to play the "max bet" that means I'd have to spend $124,590,080 just to be able to hit it once and win, what, only 10% of that amount?

Maybe i should save my money and just stick to blackjack! At least if I sit at the right table and spend that same amount ($124,590,80) I could on average win $121,226,147.84 of that back.

Better deal, I'll say.
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Nareed
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:08:11 AM permalink
So pretty much you're better off playing lotto? I find that really, really odd.
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MathExtremist
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:46:23 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

So pretty much you're better off playing lotto? I find that really, really odd.


Depending on your state, you may indeed have a better chance of hitting the jackpot with a lotto ticket than with a slot pull. However, the remainder of the paytable on lotto tickets (catch 5, 4, 3, etc) is severely depressed compared to the remainder of the paytable on a slot game. A typical state lottery game pays back 50%. A typical progressive slot game pays back >90%. A progressive VP game is often >96%.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
dm
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February 15th, 2011 at 8:52:32 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

It's impossible to tell what the chance of winning the progressive is, in part because you don't know the overall payback percentage of the machine. You also have no idea of the odds against the progressive hitting on any one spin.

I use a simple, nonmathematical formula: hitting a big progressive is like being hit by lightning, marrying a movie star, dying in a car accident, or getting promoted to general manager: it always happens to someone else.



We already know you haven't died in a car accident, but good luck on 2 of the other 3.
Nareed
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February 15th, 2011 at 9:00:02 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

A typical state lottery game pays back 50%. A typical progressive slot game pays back >90%. A progressive VP game is often >96%.



Ah, better. I knew lotto couldn't possibly be a better bet :)

I still play neither, though, which is best of all. I may try a VP progressive if I find one with a decent paytable (in other words, I'll get some shocks looking up pay tables on VP progressives).
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HotBlonde
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:25:49 AM permalink
I know The Wizard suggests if to play slots at all to play VP. I think I will learn the strategy and try that next time to not lose as much if I were going to play just regular slots. To me, even a just under 4% loss is high since I tend to prefer to play at 0.027% blackjack tables, but, DAMN! I'm still lured in by that big progressive! (Just keep thinking, "It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million..."

Maybe that'll work to keep me away!!
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Nareed
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February 15th, 2011 at 11:53:00 AM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

I know The Wizard suggests if to play slots at all to play VP. I think I will learn the strategy and try that next time to not lose as much if I were going to play just regular slots. To me, even a just under 4% loss is high since I tend to prefer to play at 0.027% blackjack tables, but, DAMN! I'm still lured in by that big progressive! (Just keep thinking, "It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million..."



By all means better play VP. House edge aside, VP is fun. You have to make decisions on what to hold, not just push a button over and over. It's also easy to follow the action, up to ten hands anyway, so there's more of a thrill as well. Lastly you ahve an influence on the results, same as in BJ.

The payout on a progressive VP (usually for a royal flush) is not as big as the payout on some progressive slots, but the odds are better. You're also less likely to lose big over the long term. Google VPfree2 to find the better pay tables. I think the site also indicates progressives.
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HotBlonde
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:09:39 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

The payout on a progressive VP (usually for a royal flush) is not as big as the payout on some progressive slots, but the odds are better.

What are the odds of hitting the progressive in this game compared to the 1 in 50 million for the other? And does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?
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clarkacal
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:22:24 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

And does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?


Go to wizardofodds.com and click on the tab "advice and strategy" then "video poker". I've learned a lot about many different games reading the info at that site.
Nareed
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:32:17 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

What are the odds of hitting the progressive in this game compared to the 1 in 50 million for the other? And does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?



I don't recall what the odds are for hitting a royal, but I think it's in the neighborhood of tens of thousands to 1. A lot better than 50 million to 1. I'm sure someone will post the odds soon enough.

The Wizard has strategies for several games in his sister site Wizard of Odds. Just follow the link at the bottom of the page. He also has simualtors that are useful in training, as they tell you whether you're making the right play or not.

Personally I preffer games like deuces wild (DW), largely because I got used to playing with wild cards when I played with my friends. But I've warmed up to Jacks or Better (JoB) and Bonus Poker (BP). In playing VP it helps if you know and like to play poker to begin with.
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toastcmu
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:09:30 PM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

I know The Wizard suggests if to play slots at all to play VP. I think I will learn the strategy and try that next time to not lose as much if I were going to play just regular slots.



Just remember that VP is still pretty volatile compared to blackjack. While the house edge of Good JoB is .46%, the royal flush makes up 2.3% of that return. I think that it pays to tailor your play based on what the comps are regarding the players club (i.e. - Harrah's = machine; MGM = tables for more generous comps)

-B
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