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23 members have voted

100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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onenickelmiracle
March 29th, 2019 at 2:37:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Maybe I didn't make myself clear, but my advice is to play only with at least two coins in the first three reels from the left.


maybe im mis-reading your chart but it seems only having 2 coins in the 1st 3 reels is -EV?
0--1--1--0--0 0.75 ev
1--0--1--0--0 0.73 ev
1--1--0--0--0 0.87 ev

and from my experience, I've lost more $ than won by playing only 2 coins in the 1st 3 reels.
so play with 2 coins in the first 3 reels PLUS at least another coin in any reel?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Chuckleberry
Chuckleberry
Joined: Jul 23, 2016
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March 29th, 2019 at 2:39:52 PM permalink
His chart shows expected win over the average spins in the 3rd column, not ev
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~Seneca the Younger
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 29th, 2019 at 2:46:53 PM permalink
Are you going to ruin Golden Egypt too Wiz? 6 votes (35.29%)
Please write that full article on Golden Egypt Wiz 6 votes (35.29%)

We have a tie so far.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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March 29th, 2019 at 4:40:51 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

maybe im mis-reading your chart but it seems only having 2 coins in the 1st 3 reels is -EV?
0--1--1--0--0 0.75 ev
1--0--1--0--0 0.73 ev
1--1--0--0--0 0.87 ev

and from my experience, I've lost more $ than won by playing only 2 coins in the 1st 3 reels.
so play with 2 coins in the first 3 reels PLUS at least another coin in any reel?



The 0.75 means that taking over a game with coins in reels 2 and 3 is worth 75% of a bet. It is not a return on investment, but a bonus, shall we say.

Your point about actual wins and losses are well taken. As I wrote before, I could be wrong. Let me chew on it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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kgb92
March 29th, 2019 at 4:41:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Are you going to ruin Golden Egypt too Wiz? 6 votes (35.29%)
Please write that full article on Golden Egypt Wiz 6 votes (35.29%)

We have a tie so far.



I'll probably ruin it regardless of the vote ;-)
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TennisRatings
TennisRatings
Joined: Mar 30, 2019
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kgb92
March 30th, 2019 at 9:28:18 AM permalink
Interesting thread, and thanks to Wizard for posting these numbers - a couple of observations...

Having run thousands of spins via the freeplay emulator at Casumo previously, I also suspected 2/4/5 was slightly positive although naturally it's very dependent on the target percentage of the machine in the particular location, and given that a decent percentage of the payout is reliant on bonuses and the odd huge win, it would be variance heavy.

However, if you need to increase playing volume (and who doesn't) then it's good to know that at least it's viable. The problem with this game in general is that the +EV scenarios tend to manifest themselves more at lower stakes, meaning that generating considerable volume (which of course -> expected profit) isn't easy. Even if you see a recreational player walk away from a decent setup, it's pretty likely your turnover on that unit will be below $50 and hence your expected profit isn't anything remotely spectacular. I guess if you see a unit on 2/4/5 on a higher stake, then the $EV could actually be higher than a better setup on a lower stake, etc...

My other thought focuses on reel 5. In my own research I can only really remember one major scenario which developed and significantly benefited from reel 5 also being wild. I'm pretty surprised that there's a considerable difference in the EV between 2/4 and 2/4/5 and also between 1/4 and 1/4/5.
smurgerburger
smurgerburger
Joined: Aug 1, 2018
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prozema
March 30th, 2019 at 10:51:15 AM permalink
Logically reel 5 should be very valuable in conjunction with other reels.

In your own examples if 1/4 improves on 1 then 1/4/5 will automatically increase the payout further by 25% (or whatever the average difference between 5oak and 4oak) over 1/4, excluding redundancies where the natural 5th reel symbol would have made 5oak anyway.

My concern with the high limit machines is the possibility that the RTP is significantly lower on these as Mickey Crimm suggested somewhere.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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March 30th, 2019 at 6:24:35 PM permalink
2 coins you can fool yourself when there is plenty more to get, but when you only have 2 coins good luck.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
Wizard
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Wizard
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Romes
April 8th, 2019 at 9:07:48 PM permalink
Please be among the first to enjoy my new page on Golden Egypt. As always, I welcome all comments.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mamat
mamat
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April 8th, 2019 at 10:33:41 PM permalink
When machines are tight (e.g. Vegas), I recommend AT LEAST THREE COINS (two coins in the first three reels).
1-1-0-0-1
1-0-1-0-1
0-1-1-0-1
or better

If machines are super-loose, I recommend two coins in the first FOUR reels.
1-0-0-1-0
0-1-0-1-0
0-0-1-1-0
or better

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