"Must Hit By" progressives for dummies

Quote: rsactuary

I'm pretty sure that by law ( at least in Nevada ), that if they take out a machine with a progressive on it, that the increase from the base level must be moved to another machine with comparable probability of hitting.

I don't think things are done fairly in Ohio. No signage, no answers, no fair rules we're used to hearing about as far as I know. Some of the regulars have gotten pretty sore about these shenanigans. People are even getting stiffed with the malfunction card there. Bonuses go black and they don't get paid. I really think Mahoning valley race course aka Hollywood Austintown should be the first legit casino to be blacklisted by this site. The list goes on and on.

I know nothing of the particular casino involved but would suggest that you find out about the machines that are built to be sold in Nevada (which is the primary market for every manufacturer) then explore any chip adjustments or performance irregularities.

Tribal slots? Well, in Florida some gamblers won't even drop a sole penny into a tribal slot because you have to trust the tribe's version of all events and statistics.

Quote: FleaStiff

I know nothing of the particular casino involved but would suggest that you find out about the machines that are built to be sold in Nevada (which is the primary market for every manufacturer) then explore any chip adjustments or performance irregularities.

Tribal slots? Well, in Florida some gamblers won't even drop a sole penny into a tribal slot because you have to trust the tribe's version of all events and statistics.

I can tell you noticed the girls bonus and made a comment she would break $200, then the machine went black saying no signal. Told her not to worry and laughed. Up to this point she had won $140, with 40 games left betting 2.50 after another retrigger. It was a colossal reels machine with the blue frost giant and scantily cla in red. Left her after I lucked out Winning $200 on the colossal reels jolly green giant game as I call it. Saw her the next time out for a smoke and she said all they would give her was $20 free play. Her machine was shut down for weeks.

Another lady who spends thousands on Napoleon and Josephine, months later had a similar experience I'm told. Pleased to say, yes I no longer play at this casino besides free play and stupidly close must hits. I literally hate slots now and save gambling money for VP. I get compulsive sometimes, but am getting closer to complete elimination of slot play. This casino is a vlt, so no VP there real or fictionalized. Apparently I digress.

Quote: rsactuary

I'm pretty sure that by law ( at least in Nevada ), that if they take out a machine with a progressive on it, that the increase from the base level must be moved to another machine with comparable probability of hitting.

Cam you show me where it says comparable odds of hitting?

I have seen many cases where it's not even close to comparable odds.

Quote: rsactuary

I'm pretty sure that by law ( at least in Nevada ), that if they take out a machine with a progressive on it, that the increase from the base level must be moved to another machine with comparable probability of hitting.

Can you show me where it says comparable odds of hitting?

I have seen many cases where it's not even close to comparable odds.

Quote: AxelWolf

Can you show me where it says comparable odds of hitting?

I'm guessing "pretty sure" means that he cannot.

I know I posted in one of these threads (can't find it) about the "pseudo AP" that jumps on these "Must Hit bys" too early. Here's a one of the regulars. She's been on it since it was at least $469.xx that I've seen. This is all this person does here is stalk these machines.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Here's a one of the regulars. She's been on it since it was at least $469.xx that I've seen.

Do you know the meter movement rates? Pretty sure those levels could be playable if the meters are fast.

Quote: HugoSlavia

Do you know the meter movement rates? Pretty sure those levels could be playable if the meters are fast.

I left so I'll have to check later. Most of these though are, $4 to move 1 penny on the major and $1.20 to move 1 penny on the minors. I've seen some that take much more coin in though.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Most of these though are, $4 to move 1 penny on the major and $1.20 to move 1 penny on the minors. I've seen some that take much more coin in though.

In that case, not playable, no.

I've seen a few that had much faster meters.

Quote: HugoSlavia

In that case, not playable, no.

I've seen a few that had much faster meters.

Basically my point in posting that picture, was to show that these players get on them way too early and never get off them until they hit. That's why I've not had one of these types of plays in over 2 years.

so 498.75 and 49.58?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Basically my point in posting that picture, was to show that these players get on them way too early and never get off them until they hit. That's why I've not had one of these types of plays in over 2 years.

I understand. They have different standards, unfortunately. You're looking for something meaningfully above 100%. They're looking for anything better than what they usually play.

Quote: HugoSlavia

I understand. They have different standards, unfortunately. You're looking for something meaningfully above 100%. They're looking for anything better than what they usually play.

Well, let's face it. "better than what you usually play" is good although the more desirable option of "meaningfully above 100%" is even better though I fear, much more rare.

I recall that misprinted SicBo layout in Biloxi. It was a good deal and that table got a great deal of action but when the shift boss passed by and saw three men from Vegas that he knew, the jig was up. So looking for too good a deal may not always work out.

Pretty sure there's a new breed of fake must hits. I say fake because even though the movement range is $200-500 it's not a random distribution in that range. They start at $200 but the wording is, "Must award by $500". There's nothing at all stopping them from setting the range $475-500 and factoring in that math - it just has to hit by $500.

There are some that range 4-5k and can't hit till 4990

Quote: Wizardofnothing

There are some that range 4-5k and can't hit till 4990

At 4990 a group of tag teamers will descend on the machine and hog it to death.

Three weeks ago we did the Major on said machines. went to $4995.... Probably the biggest loss of the year but it wasn't too big.

Quote: BTLWI

I say fake because even though the movement range is $200-500 it's not a random distribution in that range.

That sucks, but I guess it may be somewhat detectable by monitoring the levels over time. The "fake" machines should tend to have jackpot levels higher up the range, on average.

I'm kind of in the same camp as Ibeatyouraces. I rarely find anything playable, even if I assume a random distribution.

Update. Little blurry but at $479. Still there with back up.

At least she hit the minor !!!!!

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Update. Little blurry but at $479. Still there with back up.

way -EV if she started at $469 and the breakeven is 498.75

Quote: HugoSlavia

Do you know the meter movement rates? Pretty sure those levels could be playable if the meters are fast.

There's not a chance that was playable, the meter move would have to be $3 (which would be close to even) or less.

Quote: HugoSlavia

In that case, not playable, no.

I've seen a few that had much faster meters.

Many Minors do, but I don't think I've ever encountered a top pay quicker than $4.00/penny.

Quote: 100xOdds

so 498.75 and 49.58?

WAY lower than that.

Quote: BTLWI

Pretty sure there's a new breed of fake must hits. I say fake because even though the movement range is $200-500 it's not a random distribution in that range. They start at $200 but the wording is, "Must award by $500". There's nothing at all stopping them from setting the range $475-500 and factoring in that math - it just has to hit by $500.

That shouldn't matter to AP's, they wouldn't be playing those numbers anyway.

Quote: Mission146

There's not a chance that was playable, the meter move would have to be $3 (which would be close to even) or less.

Several of the must hit-type slots have very uniform meter movements from casino to casino. But the Quick Strike machines specifically, in my experience, vary a lot. I've seen some really bad (slow) ones, but I've also found <$2 per penny for the major, and <$1 for the mini. In fact, one casino was something like 40 cents for the mini. It was a couple years ago, and I haven't been back to that city recently.

Maybe someone else can corroborate, without naming specific casinos, because we don't want to spoil anyone's fun.

Also, slot club promotions can influence breakeven levels. On a multiplier day, the club card could be worth 2% or more.

Quote: HugoSlavia

Several of the must hit-type slots have very uniform meter movements from casino to casino. But the Quick Strike machines specifically, in my experience, vary a lot. I've seen some really bad (slow) ones, but I've also found <$2 per penny for the major, and <$1 for the mini. In fact, one casino was something like 40 cents for the mini. It was a couple years ago, and I haven't been back to that city recently.

Maybe someone else can corroborate, without naming specific casinos, because we don't want to spoil anyone's fun.

Also, slot club promotions can influence breakeven levels. On a multiplier day, the club card could be worth 2% or more.

I'll agree with your first paragraph, I imagine they can be set to just about anything and it's not like base returns couldn't be set differently to compensate for faster meters.

Now, when you look at a Mini ($10-$20?) moving at $0.40/penny, you figure that is going to pop, on average, at $15.00 as it always would. That's going to be 500 meter moves which would only be $200 coin-in and would contribute, base included, 7.5% to the overall return of the game. I mean, that's pretty big, much more than a Mini would normally contribute.

Even if you want to assume that the machine otherwise holds 40%, something like finding it at $17.70 would have an average hit point of $18.85 with an expected coin-in of $46 to hit at $18.85 for which you expect to lose $18.40, so that's technically a play.

No corroboration needed, you don't have to play too many of these to know how wildly they can vary.

I also agree that promotions can change the play points, and multiplier days and stuff like that. Again, depends on the casino. Still, unless the Video Poker there is God-awful, I would have to absolutely KNOW a ton about the specific unit for 2% to really change my decision to play. Point is, if I'm playing them at all, I'm already getting better than 2%.

Quote: Mission146

Now, when you look at a Mini ($10-$20?) moving at $0.40/penny

The Mini range was $25-$50, not that it matters, since the proportions are the same.

For a typical machine moving at $4 major/$2 mini, contribution to the return would be 0.75%+1.5%=2.25%.

As I recall, these machines moved at $1.60 major/$0.40 mini, or 1.875%+7.5%=9.375%.

It does seem somewhat too good to be true, but our information is limited, as you noted:

Quote:

I imagine they can be set to just about anything and it's not like base returns couldn't be set differently to compensate for faster meters.

For the few hours or so I was able to play, the machines didn't feel very loose, but that doesn't mean much.

Quote: bobbartop

I'm guessing "pretty sure" means that he cannot.

Hey smart guy, check out Section 5.110 paragraphs 5, 6 and 7 of the Nevada gaming regulations.

5. A licensee shall not reduce the amount of a progressive payoff schedule or otherwise eliminate a
progressive payoff schedule unless:
(a) A player wins the progressive payoff schedule;
(b) The licensee adjusts the progressive payoff schedule to correct a malfunction or to prevent the
display of an a mount greater than a limit imposed pursuant to subsection 4, and the licensee documents
the adjustment and the reasons for it;
(c) The licensee distributes the entire incremental amount to another single progressive payoff
schedule on similar game(s) or machine(s) at the licensee�s establishment and:
(1) The licensee documents the distribution;
(2) Any game or slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the licensee distributes the
incremental amount does not require that more money be played on a single play to win the payoff schedule
than the game or slot machine from which the incremental amount is distributed unless the incremental
amount distributed is increased in proportion to the increase in the amount of the wager required to win the
payoff schedule;
(3) If from a slot machine, any slot machine offering the payoff schedule to which the incremental amount is distributed complies with the minimum theoretical payout requirement of Regulation 14.040(1);
and
(4) The distribution is completed within 30 days after the progressive payoff schedule is removed from play or within such longer period as the chairman may for good cause approve;
(d) For games other than slot machines, the incremental amount may be distributed within 90 days of
removal through a concluding contest, tournament or promotion and the contest, tournament or promotion
is conducted with a game(s) similar to the game(s) from which the amounts are distributed; or
(e) The chairman, upon a showing of exceptional circumstances, approves a reduction, elimination,
distribution, or procedure not otherwise described in this subsection, which approval is confirmed in writing.
6. A progressive payoff schedule may be temporarily removed for a period of up to 30 days to allow
for the remodeling of the licensed gaming establishment, or for such longer period or other good cause as
the chairman may approve.
7. Except as otherwise provided by this section, the incremental amount of a progressive payoff
schedule is an obligation to the licensee�s patrons, and it shall be the responsibility of the licensee if he
ceases operation of the progressive game or slot machine for any reason, including a transfer of ownership
of the licensed gaming establishment, to arrange for satisfaction of that obligation in a manner approved by
the chairman.

Don't locals keep a sharp eye on these Must Hit By machines so that by the time a visiting gambler shows up the hoggers are already lined up?

Quote: FleaStiff

Don't locals keep a sharp eye on these Must Hit By machines so that by the time a visiting gambler shows up the hoggers are already lined up?

I happened to walk by a guy getting a handpay on a G+ at the Bellagio that put the major into a decent number. He left a few spins later and I hopped on. Within a few minutes there was someone sitting behind me watching me. I stared at them while hitting spin 5-6 times without looking at the screen. They didn't get the hint, so I slowed my play way down and had a couple drinks just to be a jerk.

Quote: sabre

I happened to walk by a guy getting a handpay on a G+ at the Bellagio that put the major into a decent number. He left a few spins later and I hopped on. Within a few minutes there was someone sitting behind me watching me. I stared at them while hitting spin 5-6 times without looking at the screen. They didn't get the hint, so I slowed my play way down and had a couple drinks just to be a jerk.

did you hit the major at least?

Quote: 100xOdds

did you hit the major at least?

Yes. I wouldn't have started playing unless I had enough cash on hand to hit it.

Quote: sabre

Yes. I wouldn't have started playing unless I had enough cash on hand to hit it.

was that guy there the whole time till u hit?

Quote: Wizardofnothing

There are some that range 4-5k and can't hit till 4990

Quote: BTLWI

Three weeks ago we did the Major on said machines. went to $4995.... Probably the biggest loss of the year but it wasn't too big.

Mid-2016 some "early adopters" took big losses on these games before wising up.

I've never seen a sub-4,990 or sub-490 drop, but have heard of a couple.

If you know the percentage allocated to progressives...you can guess the x% chance of a sub-4,990/sub-490 drop.
Unfortunately, you have to make some assumptions about the distribution, so there are some of us who debate possible distributions which would produce the stated percentage.

P.S. The company submitted an S-1 on Apr 17.
IMO, they probably offered many casinos a sweet deal on renting their machines...to help their potential IPO.

Quote: BTLWI

Pretty sure there's a new breed of fake must hits. I say fake because even though the movement range is $200-500 it's not a random distribution in that range. They start at $200 but the wording is, "Must award by $500". There's nothing at all stopping them from setting the range $475-500 and factoring in that math - it just has to hit by $500.

Some also rise to $499.99 & stop moving until they drop (weeks, months, years later)

I think what you meant is that...it's not a UNIFORM distribution (rather than "random"), meaning that the progressive has the same chance of falling at any point between $200 & $500.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I left so I'll have to check later. Most of these though are, $4 to move 1 penny on the major and $1.20 to move 1 penny on the minors. I've seen some that take much more coin in though.

Lowest I've seen are $0.50/penny on the major, $0.67/penny on the minor (on different machines).
It matters a LOT if the machine is 85% or 93%.

Some are 100%+ below 420 & 36 (500 major, 50 minor).
Others require over 490 & 49.

On the high side, I've seen $20/penny (major) & $16/penny (minor).
...and a machine which was soooo ridiculous, $80 didn't move the minor one penny, so I quit watching...

Quote: AxelWolf

Speaking of opportunities, is anybody actually playing must hit's and making a fair amount of money on a consistent basis? I hear some people saying they are(online and 3rd hand info), but anybody that I actually know and talk to about it, people that would be truthful are claiming that it's not that great.

Las Vegas is an awful place for must-hits (as are MOST casinos elsewhere).

IMO Best thing to do in Vegas for small must-hits ($500 and under) is drive to small casinos during graveyard (before the morning crew).

On one trip to Las Vegas, I visited a place at 4 am & found a G+ in the mid-high 480s. Within one hour, a local AP who visits obscure casinos stopped by & introduced himself. We had a nice chat. ...so I would not have gotten the machine if I were there at 5 am or later. It played unusually well, and I made about $800-1,100.

---
Easy way to estimate the profitability of a casino for must-hits is to add ALL the THEO of all the 100+% must-hits you see there in one week (hanging out 24/7). Then estimate what percentage of those you might get (e.g. some people never leave, other APs will beat you to many, and you will get some). What is an estimated monthly/annual total?

Just as casinos look at RPU (revenue/unit) per day/month/year, you can do the same calculation as an AP.
What is your estimated RPU per day/month/year?

Walked into Sunset Station one day with my wife to have dinner at about 8pm. We noticed a G+ at 487.00. No way I could resist that machine. It didn't hit until 497 or so, and not until 4am or so. My net loss was about 100.00 or so after I collected the 497.00. I was playing .40 cents a spin with occasional bumps to .80 or 1.20

Thankfully, my wife won about 300.00 on the "must hit" machine next to us, that wasn't even close to either the minor or major, so it wasn't an entire waste of time. Definitely lost my taste for those machines now. That was a very disappointing evening.

Do you recall the meter move? Only reason I ask is because $487 is only borderline playable on some.

I've never, ever seen a G+ that didn't have the same meter rise as every other G+.

Quote: denstarr

Walked into Sunset Station one day with my wife to have dinner at about 8pm. We noticed a G+ at 487.00. No way I could resist that machine. It didn't hit until 497 or so, and not until 4am or so. My net loss was about 100.00 or so after I collected the 497.00. I was playing .40 cents a spin with occasional bumps to .80 or 1.20

I'd eat my own foot before trying to run through a couple thousand coin in at 40c/spin.

Quote: sabre

I happened to walk by a guy getting a handpay on a G+ at the Bellagio that put the major into a decent number. He left a few spins later and I hopped on. Within a few minutes there was someone sitting behind me watching me. I stared at them while hitting spin 5-6 times without looking at the screen. They didn't get the hint, so I slowed my play way down and had a couple drinks just to be a jerk.

I'm a jerk even without the booze and slow play. However, this does show that even an upscale casino has some sharpies who are going around looking at those progressives.

Quote: denstarr

Walked into Sunset Station one day with my wife to have dinner at about 8pm. We noticed a G+ at 487.00. No way I could resist that machine. It didn't hit until 497 or so, and not until 4am or so. My net loss was about 100.00 or so after I collected the 497.00. I was playing .40 cents a spin with occasional bumps to .80 or 1.20

Why the heck were you playing the minimum? you'll be there forever!
Why not bet the amount that will move the meter $0.01?
it's not like the must move will hit at a fractional amount, like $492.314159.
or does it???

Quote: sabre

I've never, ever seen a G+ that didn't have the same meter rise as every other G+.

How's that? Some of them are win based and others are coin-in based.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: Sabre

I've never, ever seen a G+ that didn't have the same meter rise as every other G+.

How's that? Some of them are win based and others are coin-in based.

Disclaimer: I rarely play Williams G+ Deluxe. So with my limited experience...

With win-based (aka "coin-out meter") G+, there are

(1) Different start points on the $500 major. Usually $250. "Great Tutankhamen's Mysteries" often (always?) starts at $350.

(2) Same or different major/minor rates - On some, the major & minor move the same. On some, the major moves about 2/3 of the minor. Just record the major & minor when you start, and it's easy to see if they are moving at the same rate.

(3) Different rates - If you record the major & minor before/after a bonus round, you can calculate the coin-out meters on the major & minor. Coin-out minor is often $170 (I've seen $240. Not sure what the worst is).

Hint: Look at the color of the progressive boxes. Orange are usually better than Black, but sometimes they are the same. Blue is usually coin-in meter.

Quote: 100xOdds

Why the heck were you playing the minimum? you'll be there forever!
Why not bet the amount that will move the meter $0.01?
it's not like the must move will hit at a fractional amount, like $492.314159.
or does it???

Yes and no. You can only get paid in whole pennies! However, at reset, the next value is picked based on whatever drives the meter, whether by win or coin-in. So, on a coin-in version, any penny bet could trigger a progressive regardless of whether the progressive has rolled up a penny or not as a result of that bet.

Although, I agree on the point you’re making. I find it difficult to bet small on the larger, slower Must-Hit-By’s. Those can take too long betting max even WITH competition!

Quote: camapl

at reset, the next value is picked based on whatever drives the meter, whether by win or coin-in.
So, on a coin-in version, any penny bet could trigger a progressive regardless of whether the progressive has rolled up a penny or not as a result of that bet.

so the must hit trigger could be a fractional amount, like $492.314159?

Well what he's saying is that if it's $2.00 to move and there's a $100-$200 range, it could pick $2.00 - $20,000 coin in to hit. (Maybe it could pick $0?) So if it picks $3.00 it will go "between" movements. I always thought it would pick the number from $100.00 to $200.00 but have no reason to believe one over the other.

I'm pretty sure I have seen the in between before but on the 500 of these I've done I never really watch, just spin as fast as possible. Doesn't really change the math I don't think.

Actually it would pick $denomination - $20,000 above. That's allows them to list a $100.00 - $200.00 range and have it actually go off at $100.00 without a full movement.

I've seen a number of G+ Deluxe machines with no progressive displayed. Does that mean the casino can turn the progressive feature off if they choose?

Living far away from anything playable (but planning my next trip to Vegas): Can you guys give me a feeling on how much these Mystery Progressive machines are spread in Vegas? Is it something which every casino has introduced over the years or more like FPVP (meaning you either have to search for half a day or know exactly where to look)?

Any recommended blogs of a Slots AP?

Thanks,
Sky