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1arrowheaddr
1arrowheaddr
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:02:35 PM permalink
What did the progressive start at? When was it last hit?
YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
Joined: Nov 7, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:21:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

I hope the machine has TITO. If that is the case, load up your TITOs ahead of time and makes the accounting much easier.

Nope. The reader will accept bills but not tickets. And all winnings are paid manually by a live person.
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 3:07:05 PM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

What did the progressive start at? When was it last hit?



I thought that it had not hit since it was installed in the 90's (maybe when the MGM opened? That was '95, right?)

This might be wrong; someone please correct me if it is.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:01:43 PM permalink
I can't find what it started at, but if we assume the payout structure (with exception to the Progressive) is perfectly-graduated, then it would be $75,000. However, we notice that the Three Lion's Share symbols in any position jump from 1k to 10k when you get to that Max Bet, so if the Lion's Share followed that structure, you'd be looking at $500,000 as a base on that Progressive.

I guess the short answer is, Hell if I know!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:08:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I can't find what it started at, but if we assume the payout structure (with exception to the Progressive) is perfectly-graduated, then it would be $75,000. However, we notice that the Three Lion's Share symbols in any position jump from 1k to 10k when you get to that Max Bet, so if the Lion's Share followed that structure, you'd be looking at $500,000 as a base on that Progressive.

I guess the short answer is, Hell if I know!



So.. do you think it's +EV yet?

I'm guessing no, because, if it was, MGM would (or at least, should) be advertising that fact like crazy.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:17:27 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

So.. do you think it's +EV yet?

I'm guessing no, because, if it was, MGM would (or at least, should) be advertising that fact like crazy.



I called the MGM Grand and spoke to Cheryl (Sheryl?) who did not immediately know the answer to my question, but was very kind and got an answer returning to me promptly. She even asked if I would prefer to hold or have her call me back.

In any event, my speculations were way off as the base amount for that Progressive was 1M.

It was either the previously linked article (or another I read) that said the HE with each Max Bet pull is between -800% to -1500%, but that seems like over-shooting it, to me.

I personally think that it would be at +EV at this point, but since I have no idea of ANY probabilities of that machine, that's just a pure guess based on the fact that the Progressive is at nearly 3x its starting point. If it still lives while you are there, and you can determine how much of every bet goes into the Progressive, then we can probably get a general idea based on that combined with a jurisdictional minimum return of 75%. We know the return is better than 75%, however, because that must also account for people who may not Max Bet, and even the Base Pays are not perfectly graduated. We could use 75% though (even including the Progressive increase as part of the 75%) to get a worst-case scenario.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:29:39 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

So.. do you think it's +EV yet?

I'm guessing no, because, if it was, MGM would (or at least, should) be advertising that fact like crazy.



It might be. Depends on how many virtual stops each reel has. It's definitely +EV if there are only 128 stops each (probably unlikely). Much more likely, if there are 256 virtual stops per reel (1 in 16.78 million if only 1 virtual stop is allotted per reel), it is dependent on how well the base game pays to determine if it's +EV. With 256 virtual stops per reel and a jackpot probability of 1 in 16.78M, the jackpot is worth 4.52% of the return.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

So.. do you think it's +EV yet?

I'm guessing no, because, if it was, MGM would (or at least, should) be advertising that fact like crazy.



And I agree with this because they are forced to have it on the floor! They want to get it the hell out of there as fast as they can!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:37:08 PM permalink
I would be willing to try to deconstruct it while playing, but I am not willing to risk getting caught with a camera. So, I don't know... I guess I could use the pen and notebook method (I actually saw someone doing that at one of the "empire" slot machines in the MGMG during my last trip. I tried to watch him subtly. He noticed me watching after about 30 seconds, so I moved on. If that was someone on this list, sorry, I was not trying to draw attention to you)

The only problem is that it would take A LOT of spins to be able to differentiate between 1/128 and 1/256, an I don't plan to play THAT much.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 4:45:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I would be willing to try to deconstruct it while playing, but I am not willing to risk getting caught with a camera. So, I don't know... I guess I could use the pen and notebook method (I actually saw someone doing that at one of the "empire" slot machines in the MGMG during my last trip. I tried to watch him subtly. He noticed me watching after about 30 seconds, so I moved on. If that was someone on this list, sorry, I was not trying to draw attention to you)

The only problem is that it would take A LOT of spins to be able to differentiate between 1/128 and 1/256, an I don't plan to play THAT much.



Yeah, I can guarantee at least one of the reels is greater than 128 virtual stops, otherwise the game is massively +EV. The amount of spins needed for a representative sample is way too much to ask at $3 spin, imo. You will probably need 1000+ spins minimum.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 5:45:20 PM permalink
I concur with Tringlomane, and the pen/notebook thing, in my personal experience, is not always kindly looked upon by staff...I should know! LOL

If anyone wants more detail, pursuant to the PM confidentiality rule, I will give them more details. I'm not discussing it publicly. Nothing serious happened, and no AP lawsuit, I'm afraid, it's just that I am still welcome at that casino and the story (if anyone from that casino were to read it) pretty much means they could guess who told the story with about a 100% chance of being right.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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