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Wizard
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Wizard
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December 19th, 2013 at 11:52:59 AM permalink
A reporter has been asking me about this machine. I found it last week. The jackpot was at $2,355,609.38.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Perdition
Perdition
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December 19th, 2013 at 11:58:07 AM permalink
You guys should include this on a Wizard field trip before or after the nugget challenge. Have a group of people put some money in and give it a try. Isn't this where the Ace BJ tourney will be at as well? Maybe make it a multi-event gathering.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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December 19th, 2013 at 12:26:19 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A reporter has been asking me about this machine. I found it last week. The jackpot was at $2,355,609.38.



I play this machine a fair bit. I find that the money seems to last longer than other machines (lots of small wins to keep you around even). I suspect that this is because it's a machine from the mid-90s when a $1 machine ($3/spin) was considered more high-limit than it is now, so the edge is lower than on other dollar machines (and they can't change the house edge with an active jackpot)

I charted my spins for a while (only paying attention to the lion on the payline). I am fairly certain that there is an 8-bit number for each reel, with only one number mapping to the lion on the payline (making the probability of hitting the jackpot on any one spin 1 in 2^24 = about 1 in 16.777 million)
ams288
ams288
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December 19th, 2013 at 12:26:56 PM permalink
A couple months ago, someone on the Vegas Message Boards got the three lions, but not on the payline for $10,000. They posted a pic.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 19th, 2013 at 1:13:05 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I play this machine a fair bit. I find that the money seems to last longer than other machines (lots of small wins to keep you around even). I suspect that this is because it's a machine from the mid-90s when a $1 machine ($3/spin) was considered more high-limit than it is now, so the edge is lower than on other dollar machines (and they can't change the house edge with an active jackpot)



I'd like to observe you play sometime and take notes, if you don't mind. I would be charting the frequency of every symbol, including off-payline lions.

Quote:

I charted my spins for a while (only paying attention to the lion on the payline). I am fairly certain that there is an 8-bit number for each reel, with only one number mapping to the lion on the payline (making the probability of hitting the jackpot on any one spin 1 in 2^24 = about 1 in 16.777 million)



That would suggest that (2.336/16.777)/3 = 4.64% of the return comes from the jackpot. I'm not sure if that is enough to be positive. That is why I would like to track the other symbols.

If anyone can get me a par sheet to the game, please do!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 19th, 2013 at 1:17:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I charted my spins for a while (only paying attention to the lion on the payline). I am fairly certain that there is an 8-bit number for each reel, with only one number mapping to the lion on the payline (making the probability of hitting the jackpot on any one spin 1 in 2^24 = about 1 in 16.777 million)



From data I found at Vegas message board I concur that 1 in 16.777 million is the most likely jackpot probability:
http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showpost.php?p=615042&postcount=296

The meter also apparently moves 0.75% of coin in from this post:
http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showpost.php?p=826038&postcount=919

My comments and analysis:
http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showpost.php?p=849202&postcount=1071
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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December 19th, 2013 at 1:28:27 PM permalink
Nastradamus said I will win, so any article on it is pointless.
I am a robot.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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December 19th, 2013 at 1:47:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd like to observe you play sometime and take notes, if you don't mind. I would be charting the frequency of every symbol, including off-payline lions.



That would suggest that (2.336/16.777)/3 = 4.64% of the return comes from the jackpot. I'm not sure if that is enough to be positive. That is why I would like to track the other symbols.

If anyone can get me a par sheet to the game, please do!



Please see my PM for details about watching me play...

I seriously doubt that this is enough to make is positive. My understanding is that the jackpot was seeded at $1 million, so you are only getting a 2.65% return over the "base". Furthermore, if they are putting 0.75% back into the jackpot (as tringlomane mentioned) that would mean that if the jackpot makes it 0EV now, the house only has a 1.9% edge on the game. That seems very low... were dollar machines that good in the 90s?

Also, if it was +EV, I'd expect that MGM would advertise that fact like crazy, so someone can finally hit the thing and they can get rid of it.

And, I did ask a slot host, and she confirmed that the rumor is true: If you hit it, you get to keep the machine. I was surprised (I figured it was urban legend....)
jwblue
jwblue
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January 9th, 2014 at 11:00:59 PM permalink
I don't know about slot machine programming but I feel the odds are somewhere in the 1 in 40M range.

The jackpot hit twice in somewhere around the first two years of the game. This was likely completely unexpected and MGM lengthened the odds considerably for the next jackpot..

Is it possible to program a machine like this for 1 in 40M jackpot odds?
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 15th, 2014 at 3:44:26 AM permalink
I just played the game 378 times yesterday. Of those times, I got the lion on the center payline four times on reel 1 and once each on reels 2 and 3.

I'll post all my results shortly, but based on my sampling and the 153 spins culled by JB, at the current meter of $2,340,744, the game has a return of 94.5%. I show the break-even meter to be $7,281,005.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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