Mega Millions
Poll
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27 members have voted
But no state taxes makes up for a lot.
That's part of the reason we love the lottery so much. Funds the schools.
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
| Game | Type of Bet | Prob. Win | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double-zero roulette | Single number | 0.026316 | $108 |
| Single-zero roulette | Single number | 0.027027 | $3,888 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $7,582 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $14,784 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $28,829 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $56,217 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $109,622 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $213,764 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $416,839 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $812,836 |
| Baccarat | Banker | 0.506825 | $1,585,031 |
The bottom right cell shows that after two winning single-number bets in roulette and nine on the Banker in baccarat, you'll have almost $1.6 million.
If you take the product of all those probabilities, you have 1 in 637,183. In other words, the expected return of this whole thing is (1583031/3)*(1/637183) = 82.92%.
As we know, the expected return in the lottery is about 50%.
To make a hypothetical lottery game that paid $1,585,031 on a $3 bet, to hold a house edge of 50%, the probability of winning would have to be 1 in 1,056,687.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lottery.
However, my goal was to show a path you could at least have a chance to parlay $3 into say $300 million. The big Vegas casinos generally have a maximum bet in baccarat of $1 million. How to go beyond that?
I looked into binary options, but the places I found online had maximum transactions of $100,000. I also thought about stock options, but those don't have clearly defined wins and probabilities.
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
Debate was 1 in 303 million.
My not so great inner math geek says it is roughly 1 in 3.8 million because we have 80 different 1 in 303 million it lowers the odds (303,000,000 ÷ 80)
Any other calculations or opinion on what our odds are in the pool. Very important answer because the group was split 4-4 on odds and if we hit the jackpot the winners get an extra $20 each
Woman behind us on line expressed concern about being in California, what with " that caravan" headed towards the border.
Quote: billryanDrove down to the magical town of Nipton to pick up $100 worth of tickets. Waited about thirty minutes in a very slow moving line to get to a checkpoint where we were told it was ten minutes in the quick pick line or about three hours to play our own numbers.
Woman behind us on line expressed concern about being in California, what with " that caravan" headed towards the border.
Mother nature said I got this
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vA6lrHvoE3A&feature=youtu.be
Quote: billryan
Woman behind us on line expressed concern about being in California, what with " that caravan" headed towards the border.
That is hilarious.
Not according to your baccarat survey, which shows the max to be $20k.Quote: WizardThe big Vegas casinos generally have a maximum bet in baccarat of $1 million.
What is the source for the $1 million figure?
Wrong!Quote: troopscottOk math geeks last night a group of parents had dinner (me included).debate about the odds started for mega millions. We all put in $20(10 tickets each) total of 80 tickets. What are the odds to win the jackpot
Debate was 1 in 303 million.
My not so great inner math geek says it is roughly 1 in 3.8 million because we have 80 different 1 in 303 million it lowers the odds (303,000,000 ÷ 80)
Any other calculations or opinion on what our odds are in the pool. Very important answer because the group was split 4-4 on odds and if we hit the jackpot the winners get an extra $20 each
it's 50/50.
you either win or you don't.
:)
Quote: troopscottOk math geeks last night a group of parents had dinner (me included).debate about the odds started for mega millions. We all put in $20(10 tickets each) total of 80 tickets. What are the odds to win the jackpot
Debate was 1 in 303 million.
My not so great inner math geek says it is roughly 1 in 3.8 million because we have 80 different 1 in 303 million it lowers the odds (303,000,000 ÷ 80)
Any other calculations or opinion on what our odds are in the pool. Very important answer because the group was split 4-4 on odds and if we hit the jackpot the winners get an extra $20 each
I gotta know. What did the other people say the odds were?
Quote: troopscottMy not so great inner math geek says it is roughly 1 in 3.8 million because we have 80 different 1 in 303 million it lowers the odds (303,000,000 ÷ 80)
You're right. Sometimes the right answer is the obvious one.
Quote: troopscott1 in 302,500,000 they could not grasp that multiple tickets gave you more chances this lowering the overall odds of holding a winning ticket
Thus proving the wizards theory about lottery players and their math skills
Quote: MichaelBluejayNot according to your baccarat survey, which shows the max to be $20k.
What is the source for the $1 million figure?
That survey is for games on the main casino floor, as opposed to the private high limit rooms. My source is the Venetian. At the time I was there, they would even larger bets at the Marina Bay Sands.
Quote: Wizard
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
Find another millionaire/billionaire and play Pai Gow against him in a California card room. Or big table Baccarat in Monte Carlo. In either case there's no table limit, since you're playing with each other's money.
Okay, I guess that's not very helpful.
Quote: MichaelBluejayNot according to your baccarat survey, which shows the max to be $20k.
What is the source for the $1 million figure?
Data point for you. My first trip to Las Vegas was in 1991. We stayed in a cheap Caesars' room. (I've told this before, so skip on if you've heard it.) We had believed the movies, so he brought his tux, and I brought a gown, and we dressed up and wandered the gaming floor during prime time.
There was a lot of noise coming from one alcove on the edge of the main gaming floor. There were golden drapes pulled back to either side and lining the wall behind them, and a red velvet rope closing off access, and a large, suited security guard in front of the rope. He motioned us back a bit when we stopped, but then let us watch for a few minutes.
There was a single, large baccarat table, with the dealer's back to us, and a Floor next to him, in there. Against the wall, there was a curved banquet table piled high with food and drinks, and I think a person to serve, but not 100% sure there was a server. The dealer was using a paddle, and dealing from a shoe.
In between the tables, there were four for sure, perhaps 5, people facing us seated to play, all Asians. They each had decent piles of weird, pumpkin-colored chips in front of them. Each hand, (we only got to see 3 or 4 hands before we were told to move along), they chatted among themselves, then each of the 4 put 10 chips in a betting circle.
Then the cards were dealt, some more excited conversation, then they would start chanting, "booya! Booya! BOOYA!" (Might have been "boola"? Don't think we heard "monkey" but didn't know what we were listening to.) then cheer or groan on the last card, or pound the table, and then start over. (You all know the drill, but it was brand-new to me then.)
I asked the guard as he moved us on, what the denomination was of the chips they were playing. He said, "$25,000." So they were playing a million a hand, 4 guys playing together at $250,000 each.
I had no idea at the time how unusual that was, to even see that level of play. I figured that was the Vegas Strip I'd heard of. But 27 years ago, they were taking bets of that size on the main floor.
Quote: beachbumbabs
Then the cards were dealt, some more excited conversation, then they would start chanting, "booya! Booya! BOOYA!" (Might have been "boola"? Don't think we heard "monkey" but didn't know what we were listening to.) then cheer or groan on the last card, or pound the table, and then start over. (You all know the drill, but it was brand-new to me then.)
Were they maybe saying something like "yow la" or "yo la?" I've heard that at the Pai Gow tables a few times. Still not sure what it means.
Quote: billryanWoman behind us on line expressed concern about being in California, what with " that caravan" headed towards the border.
What, is she afraid those poor wretches will buy so many mega millions tickets (in southern Mexic0!) so as to skew the odds against her?
Tell her there's a better chance of Trump turning the White House into a homeless shelter than that occurring.
Quote: Wizard
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lottery.
The music, food, booze and general ambiance seem to be better in a casino than in the local Quick Mart. And I've never heard of a Quick Mart that comps anyone.
Quote: billryanHappy to report that everyone thought they'd give some money to others.
Not me.
If I win I'm gonna to to MGM and make a one-time offer to "bet it all on red."
Quote: billryanOne older woman, obviously a retired school teacher, kept reminding everyone that they should share their winnings by donating to schools and such. Happy to report that everyone thought they'd give some money to others.
ugh that reminds me of a dude that kept telling people in the money at a poker tournament to "TIP YOUR DEALERS!". Fax but damn shut the front door bruh. This was a NLHE tourney for like $60 at Sam's, aint nobody winning life changing money here.
You can rub it in my face tomorrow, Wizard.
Guess it’s really no different of an outcome.
Quote: WizardThis post will address some questions and challenges put to me since my last one.
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
Game Type of Bet Prob. Win Balance Double-zero roulette Single number 0.026316 $108 Single-zero roulette Single number 0.027027 $3,888 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $7,582 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $14,784 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $28,829 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $56,217 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $109,622 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $213,764 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $416,839 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $812,836 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $1,585,031
The bottom right cell shows that after two winning single-number bets in roulette and nine on the Banker in baccarat, you'll have almost $1.6 million.
If you take the product of all those probabilities, you have 1 in 637,183. In other words, the expected return of this whole thing is (1583031/3)*(1/637183) = 82.92%.
As we know, the expected return in the lottery is about 50%.
To make a hypothetical lottery game that paid $1,585,031 on a $3 bet, to hold a house edge of 50%, the probability of winning would have to be 1 in 1,056,687.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lottery.
However, my goal was to show a path you could at least have a chance to parlay $3 into say $300 million. The big Vegas casinos generally have a maximum bet in baccarat of $1 million. How to go beyond that?
I looked into binary options, but the places I found online had maximum transactions of $100,000. I also thought about stock options, but those don't have clearly defined wins and probabilities.
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
What’s the longest string of Banker wins anyone here has witnessed? I think the most I’ve seen is 5 or 6.
Even with the possibility of a three-way split, isn’t a 303 million dollar investment in tickets worth it at this point?
Quote: AyecarumbaEven with the possibility of a three-way split, isn’t a 303 million dollar investment in tickets worth it at this point?
uggg.. have you not been listening to Wiz?
Lotto tix is a VERY bad bet if your intent is to gain financially.
very VERY -EV
in my opinion, you buy it for the social value.
I spent $4 on tickets and won $2.
Quote: AyecarumbaEven with the possibility of a three-way split, isn’t a 303 million dollar investment in tickets worth it at this point?
Regular Tickets are $2
Just the Jackpot tickets are $3 for 2 chances
So the minimum you’d have to spend for a guaranteed win is $454.5 million.
The lump size prize is $905 million. Which would come to about $570 million after taxes.
But you’d likely have to split that. And not to mention the impossible logistics of buying that many tickets.
Taking the lump sum, after taxes, and assuming no splits, my calculations show the EV of a regular ticket to be $2.13 and a Just The Jacpot ticket to be $3.77.
"Private" high limit room? Is that something different from a "public" high limit room? I've played in high limit rooms for years, just walking in without an invitation. Are there separate, invitation-only (or application-only) rooms? How does one get access to those? Is having enough money to bet sufficient?Quote: WizardThat survey is for games on the main casino floor, as opposed to the private high limit rooms.
Quote: MichaelBluejay"Private" high limit room? Is that something different from a "public" high limit room? I've played in high limit rooms for years, just walking in without an invitation. Are there separate, invitation-only (or application-only) rooms? How does one get access to those? Is having enough money to bet sufficient?
Such a thing would not be legal in most states.
However the Greenbriar Casino in West Virginia is not open to the general public and is very snooty. Men are required to wear jackets after 7:00 PM. I think I will have the opportunity to visit in the next few months.
Off the top of my head, I don’t know of any other legal casino’s that are not open to the public.
F, Mike he doesn't get it. (-;Quote: TigerWuOkay, I got my tickets.
You can rub it in my face tomorrow, Wizard.
There is truth to this. Obviously no other gamble has the payoff as big as this lotto jackpot. If it was anything else, the answer for a casual gambler that wanted a big payoff, would be to bet big and go home big or bust. If there was a billion dollar loss rebate, the answer would be the lotto here, any other path to a billion is a fantasy, no casino would let you win a billion unless you had two or three billion you're willing to lose already, not the proceeds from a parlay. Plus the time invested in that plan isnt accounted for, you would have a lot of time and expense along the way, plane tickets, rooms, etc. I don't think you'll find someone willing to take million dollar bets in the second place, that's why I say the plan is a fantasy. At least the billion lotto could be achieved with only the expense of the tickets to worry about. However I concede both plans are fantasies just because the odds suck so bad.Quote: AxelWolfF, Mike he doesn't get it.
Include the split factor and it will probably be about $1.40Quote: gamerfreak
Taking the lump sum, after taxes, and assuming no splits, my calculations show the EV of a regular ticket to be $2.13 and a Just The Jacpot ticket to be $3.77.
Okay, I found it. Yes, there are private high-limit rooms that are separate from the regular high limit room. Excerpts from this article:Quote: MichaelBluejay"Private" high limit room? Is that something different from a "public" high limit room? I've played in high limit rooms for years, just walking in without an invitation. Are there separate, invitation-only (or application-only) rooms? How does one get access to those? Is having enough money to bet sufficient?
"Perhaps one of the most exclusive casinos in the city, the Wynn Sky Casino is located in the Encore Tower on the 63rd floor and features panoramic floor to ceiling windows with views of the city....In order to access the Sky Casino, you’ll need a minimum credit line of $300K and must request the room."
"This 2,600 square foot room is on a private floor in the Bellagio and similar to the Sky Casino at Wynn it requires a minimum credit limit of $300,000 and about an hour’s notice to setup the room for players."
Quote: michael99000Looks like 1 winner so far, ticket sold in South Carolina.
Looks like that’s it. No splits. Amazing.
single winner!Quote: michael99000Looks like 1 winner so far, ticket sold in South Carolina.
Quote: 100xOddssingle winner!
South Carolina is one of the few states that will keep a jackpot winner's identity confidential upon request. Anyone want to start setting a line on whether this mega-winner's identity is revealed publicly within, say, the next six months? (False claims do not count.)
Quote: MichaelBluejay"Private" high limit room? Is that something different from a "public" high limit room? I've played in high limit rooms for years, just walking in without an invitation. Are there separate, invitation-only (or application-only) rooms? How does one get access to those? Is having enough money to bet sufficient?
You have to be invited. If you send a bank wire for millions of dollars to any top-end Vegas casino, I'm quite sure you'll get an invitation. The Venetian has several of them behind their public high-limit room as as well in on the top floor.
Nah, I'm going to be too busy playing in my own Salon Privee with $300,000 required just to get in. Wonder what the hookers are like in those places.Quote: DocAnyone want to start setting a line on whether this mega-winner's identity is revealed
Don't forget, you can write off $454.499M for the losing tickets!Quote: gamerfreakRegular Tickets are $2
Just the Jackpot tickets are $3 for 2 chances
So the minimum you’d have to spend for a guaranteed win is $454.5 million.
The lump size prize is $905 million. Which would come to about $570 million after taxes.
Yeah, there is that.Quote:But you’d likely have to split that.
There's the kicker. If you figure a given machine can spit out one pick every 1/2 second, it would take one person close to five years to buy that many tickets. Not to mention the time it would take to fill out all those bubble sheets - you can't just quick-pick those tickets. Oh, and don't make a mistake and omit or duplicate any of those 300+ million tickets!Quote:And not to mention the impossible logistics of buying that many tickets.
I came really close to winning it. If only I'd bought a ticket. Damn.
You were close, and you shouldn't feel bad about not buying a ticket. With odds of 1 in 258,890,850, that's 0.000000004, so the difference between your chances of 0.000000000 and the chances from buying a ticket at 0.000000004 is, well, 0.000000004, which is so small a number that it's essentially negligible, so there's no significant difference between your chances and those of someone who actually bought a ticket. You were indeed close.Quote: OnceDearI came really close to winning it. If only I'd bought a ticket. Damn.
Was I closer than someone that bought a ticket and lost?? I can't get my head around that :o)Quote: MichaelBluejayYou were close, and you shouldn't feel bad about not buying a ticket. With odds of 1 in 258,890,850, that's 0.000000004, so the difference between your chances of 0.000000000 and the chances from buying a ticket at 0.000000004 is, well, 0.000000004, which is so small a number that it's essentially negligible, so there's no significant difference between your chances and those of someone who actually bought a ticket. You were indeed close.
Was the person that bought it a fool?
Oh I will laugh if the winning ticket buyer never comes forward.
