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27 members have voted

gamerfreak
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October 18th, 2018 at 1:33:47 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I see no reason to hate people buying lotto tickets. Lets not forget, the odds of the lottery are bad, but so are the odds for most of the people buying tickets. They don't have the talent, skills, and intelligence most of you have, so maybe they are smart knowing their lives are hopeless anyways, so they bet.


I’ve said this before, but I think it’s laughable that the same people here that poop on the lottery LOVE high stakes BJ trip reports and other similar things.
FleaStiff
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October 18th, 2018 at 3:14:53 PM permalink
Ain't nobody gonna fly to Vegas to make ONE bj bet at table minimum.

A two dollar lottery ticket is a 'fling' ... a trivial sum thrown to the wind. It doesn't have to be sensible.

Hop on a plane to Vegas and your gambling should at least start out being done sensibly.
FinsRule
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IndyJeffrey
October 18th, 2018 at 3:26:46 PM permalink
I don’t think people are “hating” on people that play a couple of bucks at lotto. But if you’re spending $50 a week and you’re making minimum wage, it’s simply a bad decision.
beachbumbabs
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October 18th, 2018 at 3:34:01 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I see no reason to hate people buying lotto tickets. Lets not forget, the odds of the lottery are bad, but so are the odds for most of the people buying tickets. They don't have the talent, skills, and intelligence most of you have, so maybe they are smart knowing their lives are hopeless anyways, so they bet.



Yeah, you sold me on it, ONM. I have a ticket for my birthday. I know it's going to hit. Yay me!

Anybody in a state that doesn't sell the megamillion want a piece? Must come in before the drawing tomorrow night.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
sodawater
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October 18th, 2018 at 4:09:36 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

this Mathematician says take the annuity payments instead of lump sum because minimize your taxes?!?!
https://lifehacker.com/the-best-time-to-play-the-powerball-lottery-according-1484889171

even if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?



The idea of taking the annuity to minimize tax liability is that the lotto (being an extension of the government) can invest the lump sum to achieve the annuity and pay 0 taxes on invested gains. Of course, once you get the income, you have to pay taxes on it. The idea is that the annuity is larger because the lotto doesn't pay taxes on capital gains.

The idea of taking the lump sum is that you can beat the lotto's ultra-conservative investment strategy even considering capital gains taxes. Also you don't have to wait 30 years to get your full payout.

I would take the cash and trust myself to beat the very conservative investments the lotto would use to grow the lump sum into the larger annuity.
JohnnyQ
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October 18th, 2018 at 4:19:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Okay, here is the bottom line on the Mega Millions.

Any questions?

Just one, so are you saying this lottery sucks ?

ps: I'm asking for a friend.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
SOOPOO
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October 18th, 2018 at 5:44:20 PM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Playing $500 in Blackjack game has much more chance of losing money than $50 in the Lottery.



If I was the board owner I'd ban you for this statement alone. Zuga refused my offer of 2.7 million by the way....
Nathan
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October 18th, 2018 at 5:51:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

If I was the board owner I'd ban you for this statement alone. Zuga refused my offer of 2.7 million by the way....



Let me explain. I was simply implying that losing $500 in Blackjack is worse than losing only $50 in Lottery.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
IndyJeffrey
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gamerfreak
October 18th, 2018 at 5:58:41 PM permalink
"I find the decision to buy lottery tickets to be entirely irrational, and I have yet to understand why people queue up to throw their money away."

The only reason I buy a ticket every now and then: the chance to win >$100,000,000 in a night. (I prob spend ~$20/year on MagaMillions - maybe less)

I know I could sit down, play 10 hands of $10 blackjack and win $100 (or more). That's great, and I would be happy. I could lose 10 hands in a row and be out $100. That would suck.

I could spend $3 on two MegaMillions tickets, and I'll be out $3. Meh. But....

Irrational? Yes. A waste of $3. Yes. But...
djatc
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October 18th, 2018 at 6:06:42 PM permalink
If I win the lottery I'm spending the amount of the tax bill to not pay taxes.

#taxationistheft
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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October 18th, 2018 at 8:15:09 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

even if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?



I agree. To keep things simple, I ignored that effect. It isn't like people who buy lottery tickets think about such things.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Joeman
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onenickelmiracle
October 19th, 2018 at 6:10:00 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Quote: 100xOdds

this Mathematician says take the annuity payments instead of lump sum because minimize your taxes?!?!
https://lifehacker.com/the-best-time-to-play-the-powerball-lottery-according-1484889171

even if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?



The idea of taking the annuity to minimize tax liability is that the lotto (being an extension of the government) can invest the lump sum to achieve the annuity and pay 0 taxes on invested gains. Of course, once you get the income, you have to pay taxes on it. The idea is that the annuity is larger because the lotto doesn't pay taxes on capital gains.

The idea of taking the lump sum is that you can beat the lotto's ultra-conservative investment strategy even considering capital gains taxes. Also you don't have to wait 30 years to get your full payout.

I would take the cash and trust myself to beat the very conservative investments the lotto would use to grow the lump sum into the larger annuity.

I think what would make me take the lump sum in lieu of an annuity is that who knows if the state will be able to pay in 30 years? We've already seen this in Illinois a few years ago where they didn't pay the jackpot winners. I think this type of thing will become more prevalent in the future.

Besides, who knows what the tax brackets will look like in 10, 20, or 30 years? It could be that, although unlikely, taking the annuity would carry a larger tax liability than taking the lump sum.

BTW, Wikipedia says the annuity is graduated, paying 5% more each year. If my math is right, that means your check on year 30 will be about 4x more than your year 1 payout.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Wizard
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October 19th, 2018 at 6:22:29 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

BTW, Wikipedia says the annuity is graduated, paying 5% more each year. If my math is right, that means your check on year 30 will be about 4x more than your year 1 payout.



That's true. 4.12x to be more specific. The first check will be for only 1.5% of the jackpot amount.

Not that anyone asked, but the break-even interest rate, ignoring taxes and other factors, is 3.404%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Nathan
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October 19th, 2018 at 7:27:49 AM permalink
970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
DRich
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October 19th, 2018 at 8:12:26 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/



You only hate it because you haven't figured out the strategy yet. Once you figure it out, you will love winning hundreds of millions of dollars regularly.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Nathan
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October 19th, 2018 at 8:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

You only hate it because you haven't figured out the strategy yet. Once you figure it out, you will love winning hundreds of millions of dollars regularly.



LMAO! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
IndyJeffrey
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October 19th, 2018 at 8:35:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Not that anyone asked, but the break-even interest rate, ignoring taxes and other factors, is 3.404%.



In other words, if the interest rate is above 3.404%, take the lump sum? Of course, today's interest rate (Fed): 2.25%

Also, these analysis forget to take into account the odds I'll be above ground in 30 years.
AZDuffman
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October 19th, 2018 at 9:14:14 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/



The secret strategy is pick your own numbers not let the computer do it. Since they want the jackpot to grow they are unlikely to give out the winning numbers.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
terapined
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October 19th, 2018 at 9:33:21 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/



The wining numbers
are
4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42
It worked for Hurley, it may work for you
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
unJon
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October 19th, 2018 at 9:37:55 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

The wining numbers
are
4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42
It worked for Hurley, it may work for you



They may hit. And it’s a great way to insure a jackpot split of more than 10 ways.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
terapined
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October 19th, 2018 at 10:09:40 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

They may hit. And it’s a great way to insure a jackpot split of more than 10 ways.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344539/How-26-000-fans-Lost-actually-WON-copying-lottery-numbers-used-TV-series-cash-Mega-Millions-draw.html
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
michael99000
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October 19th, 2018 at 10:18:13 AM permalink
Mega Millions web site has officially listed the jackpot at 1 billion.
Wizard
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October 19th, 2018 at 10:30:16 AM permalink
Quote: IndyJeffrey

In other words, if the interest rate is above 3.404%, take the lump sum?



That's right.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TigerWu
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October 19th, 2018 at 10:35:39 AM permalink
I need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?
FinsRule
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October 19th, 2018 at 12:05:53 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?



Need more info on your wife.
onenickelmiracle
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October 19th, 2018 at 12:32:40 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Need more info on your wife.

Probably more fun than what's his name's mother.
I am a robot.
Ayecarumba
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October 19th, 2018 at 1:10:06 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?



Hmm, the classic “bird in the hand or two in the bush” dilemma...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
DRich
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October 19th, 2018 at 1:13:54 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?



You are a lucky man. My wife's wine costs four lottery tickets.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
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October 19th, 2018 at 1:36:46 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?



Maybe give your wife the lottery ticket. When I'm out of state and the jackpot is large, Mrs. Wizard makes me buy some tickets. I must say, I am very ashamed of myself making the purchase. I'm sure there are other math wizards in the store shaking their heads and feeling sorry for me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
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October 19th, 2018 at 1:41:27 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Yeah, you sold me on it, ONM. I have a ticket for my birthday. I know it's going to hit. Yay me!

Anybody in a state that doesn't sell the megamillion want a piece? Must come in before the drawing tomorrow night.



Tick tock. Offer expires at 6pm Vegas time tonight.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RonC
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October 19th, 2018 at 2:10:52 PM permalink
I bought a couple of tickets.

I can dream for a few hours; then my dreams will come crashing down.
unJon
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October 19th, 2018 at 4:33:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That's right.

Sort of. But there are many interest rates so you should probably look at the whole yield curve and match duration of payments through mixing short, medium and long term treasuries, etc.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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October 19th, 2018 at 4:40:57 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344539/How-26-000-fans-Lost-actually-WON-copying-lottery-numbers-used-TV-series-cash-Mega-Millions-draw.html

Wow.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
CrystalMath
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October 19th, 2018 at 4:54:21 PM permalink
I'm not going to buy the following numbers: 68, 34, 5, 33, 39 : 11

Though I have a very strong feeling that they will come up sometime in the next 300 million drawings.
I heart Crystal Math.
rxwine
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October 19th, 2018 at 6:29:18 PM permalink
In 1990s I watched as 6 of the 7 numbers I picked came up on an Illinois jackpot for 20 million. I tell you, it took my breath away. But $2,900, is a long way from 20 million.
Sanitized for Your Protection
gamerfreak
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October 19th, 2018 at 8:14:14 PM permalink
I didn’t win.
FinsRule
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October 20th, 2018 at 4:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I didn’t win.



No one did. 1.6 bil
ddloml
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October 20th, 2018 at 4:54:24 AM permalink
I won! Had 65 and the Megaball of 7 on a computer pick so can cash out for $4.
RonC
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October 20th, 2018 at 5:05:06 AM permalink
The cash option shows as $904 million after the last drawing. It could soon go to a billion.

Here is a tax calculator for you so you can start spending your money:

https://www.usamega.com/mega-millions-jackpot.asp

Oh, wait...I am going to win!
Wizard
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October 20th, 2018 at 5:42:48 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I didn’t win.



To everyone who lost -- I told you so.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RonC
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100xOdds
October 20th, 2018 at 5:50:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

To everyone who lost -- I told you so.



Thank you!

Here's hoping you need to go out of town this week and buy your wife tickets

I can hear the whispers...

...that guy...that one...over there...he's the math genius know as the Wizard of Odds...he always talks about not buying lotto tickets, but there he is...
scolist
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October 20th, 2018 at 7:34:03 AM permalink
So if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?

Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
There's no way out of here When you come in You're in for good There was no promise made The part you played The chance...........you took
Mosca
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beachbumbabs
October 20th, 2018 at 7:48:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

To everyone who lost -- I told you so.



I hit 3 numbers last drawing, and 3 numbers this drawing, so I'm ahead $8.
A falling knife has no handle.
Mosca
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October 20th, 2018 at 7:48:52 AM permalink
Quote: scolist

So if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?

Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.



I'd put it with my investment guy, whose eyes would be bugging out of his head.
A falling knife has no handle.
unJon
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October 20th, 2018 at 7:48:59 AM permalink
Can’t find with a quick google the fraction of ticket sales that adds to jackpot. Saw that overall 60% of Mega Millions revenue returned to players. At a guess 50% in jackpot and 10% in other prizes? Not sure if that’s anywhere near accurate. But assuming so, $600m bump in jackpot would mean $1.2b in expected ticket sales. Next unknown is how many spend the extra dollar for multiplier. Let’s call it 16.7% with jackpot so high as I think most new players don’t do that (and makes math easy)? And just the jackpot looks like a small option so we can ignore it. So that would be 500 million in numbers picked.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
beachbumbabs
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scolist
October 20th, 2018 at 7:55:52 AM permalink
Quote: scolist

So if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?

Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.



I think the best process has been found to be setting up a trust account to handle the assets with a financial manager. They have accountability that extends above the FDIC threshold, because they handle assets like retirement accounts and portfolios that routinely exceed that.

But I don't know much about that for obvious reasons...lol. perhaps Paradigm could give some insight. He does that sort of thing.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
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October 20th, 2018 at 8:01:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

To everyone who lost -- I told you so.



Lucky me... I decided to go with the bottle of wine.
beachbumbabs
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October 20th, 2018 at 8:01:37 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Can’t find with a quick google the fraction of ticket sales that adds to jackpot. Saw that overall 60% of Mega Millions revenue returned to players. At a guess 50% in jackpot and 10% in other prizes? Not sure if that’s anywhere near accurate. But assuming so, $600m bump in jackpot would mean $1.2b in expected ticket sales. Next unknown is how many spend the extra dollar for multiplier. Let’s call it 16.7% with jackpot so high as I think most new players don’t do that (and makes math easy)? And just the jackpot looks like a small option so we can ignore it. So that would be 500 million in numbers picked.



It seems to be less than that, at least on this jackpot, who play the extra $1 for the multiplier. 11-12%. (Megaplier winners is a subset of total winners in the chart.) * is for California winners, which are parimutuel there, but fixed amounts the other 43 states.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
michael99000
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October 20th, 2018 at 8:04:48 AM permalink
Quote: scolist

So if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?

Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.



Amazon gift cards.
Wizard
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October 20th, 2018 at 8:12:01 AM permalink
To address some recent questions, on a standard $2 ticket without the Megaplier, the return from fixed wins is 12.35% of the amount bet.

I show that for every dollar spent on tickets, 60.2 cents gets added to the jackpot. However, don't forget the annuity. They only pay out about 56.5% of the jackpot whether or not the player chooses the lump sum. So, about 34.37% of money bet gets paid out to jackpot winners, before deducting for taxes. Thus, the overall return is about 12.35% + 34.37% = 46.72%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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