Mega Millions
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27 members have voted
Quote: OnceDearWas the person that bought it a fool?
Yes.
Quote: gamerfreakRegular Tickets are $2
Just the Jackpot tickets are $3 for 2 chances
So the minimum you’d have to spend for a guaranteed win is $454.5 million.
The lump size prize is $905 million. Which would come to about $570 million after taxes.
But you’d likely have to split that. And not to mention the impossible logistics of buying that many tickets.
Taking the lump sum, after taxes, and assuming no splits, my calculations show the EV of a regular ticket to be $2.13 and a Just The Jacpot ticket to be $3.77.
I'd imagine the only possible way to buy every combination would be to own several lottery terminals. What does the seller make for selling four hundred million dollars worth of tickets? In this case, it would be a rebate.
Wouldn't having every combination mean you'd win a piece of the thousand of consolation prizes offered? That's millions more in value.
Quote: billryanI'd imagine the only possible way to buy every combination would be to own several lottery terminals. What does the seller make for selling four hundred million dollars worth of tickets? In this case, it would be a rebate.
Wouldn't having every combination mean you'd win a piece of the thousand of consolation prizes offered? That's millions more in value.
You would have 25 different tickets that all match the first five numbers , because to have every combination of 302 million that are possible , you’d have to have a ticket with the first 5 numbers correct plus all 25 different mega balls with it.
So that’s $24 million worth in those winners.
Quote: billryanWouldn't having every combination mean you'd win a piece of the thousand of consolation prizes offered? That's millions more in value.
The majority of the value in a Megamillions ticket is in the jackpot win. The value of fixed prizes is only $0.25. So even though tickets for this drawing were +EV (again ignoring splits), the variance is absolutely astronomical.
I’m not 100% sure what lottery retailers make, but I think it’s something like 2% of sales.
When my buddy sold a $1million scratchie in his store, he got a $5000 kickback from the lottery.
Quote: OnceDearWas the person that bought it a fool?
Quote: wizardYes.
I agree, of course. I wonder which members of this forum were similar fools and will admit it.
I also wonder what kind of dramas really envelop the lives of winners like this. I.e. squabbles between winner and spouse or squabbles between syndicate members, or divorces/murders/resignation with extreme prejudice, involving the winner... Or involving folks who thought they were the winner but misread the results.
Quote: OnceDearI agree, of course. I wonder which members of this forum were similar fools and will admit it.
I also wonder what kind of dramas really envelop the lives of winners like this. I.e. squabbles between winner and spouse or squabbles between syndicate members, or divorces/murders/resignation with extreme prejudice, involving the winner... Or involving folks who thought they were the winner but misread the results.
There are a handful of documentaries that follow the lives of people that one the lottery. One called “Lucky” one called “Millions” and one called “Jackpots and Jinxes” that is UK based. Probably others.
Quote: OnceDearI agree, of course. I wonder which members of this forum were similar fools and will admit it.
Mathematically it was foolish, but it's also foolish to live your life strictly by mathematical decisions.
EDIT:
Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost yesterday -- I told you so.
I won $2!! On a $4 wager. That counts as a "surrender," right?
fine.. i'll just take my yacht back to my private island and sulkQuote: WizardTo everyone who lost yesterday -- I told you so.
Quote: WizardThis post will address some questions and challenges put to me since my last one.
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
Game Type of Bet Prob. Win Balance Double-zero roulette Single number 0.026316 $108 Single-zero roulette Single number 0.027027 $3,888 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $7,582 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $14,784 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $28,829 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $56,217 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $109,622 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $213,764 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $416,839 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $812,836 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $1,585,031
The bottom right cell shows that after two winning single-number bets in roulette and nine on the Banker in baccarat, you'll have almost $1.6 million.
If you take the product of all those probabilities, you have 1 in 637,183. In other words, the expected return of this whole thing is (1583031/3)*(1/637183) = 82.92%.
As we know, the expected return in the lottery is about 50%.
To make a hypothetical lottery game that paid $1,585,031 on a $3 bet, to hold a house edge of 50%, the probability of winning would have to be 1 in 1,056,687.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lotto.
Why wait until we have $3888 before we switch to bac? Can't we take $108 to mini-bac?
Can we improve our odds by starting with a don't pass bet on bubble craps?
No one who is not already a multimillionaire would keep risking it all in blind pursuit of the goal. It's interesting to think about where you would stop if you were ever on such a heater.
Blind pursuit or blind faith?Quote: JimRockford
No one who is not already a multimillionaire would keep risking it all in blind pursuit of the goal. It's interesting to think about where you would stop if you were ever on such a heater.
Also, wouldn't the bets be on PLAYER so as to avoid accumulating commissions?
Quote: TigerWuMathematically it was foolish, but it's also foolish to live your life strictly by mathematical decisions.
I do.
Quote:I won $2!! On a $4 wager. That counts as a "surrender," right?
I guess you could make the surrender comparison, but you still lost and get the "I told you so."
Quote: WizardI guess you could make the surrender comparison, but you still lost and get the "I told you so."
I mean, it's not like I ever doubted your math or the odds in general...
No regrets.
Quote: WizardThis post will address some questions and challenges put to me since my last one.
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
Game Type of Bet Prob. Win Balance Double-zero roulette Single number 0.026316 $108 Single-zero roulette Single number 0.027027 $3,888 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $7,582 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $14,784 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $28,829 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $56,217 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $109,622 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $213,764 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $416,839 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $812,836 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $1,585,031
The bottom right cell shows that after two winning single-number bets in roulette and nine on the Banker in baccarat, you'll have almost $1.6 million.
If you take the product of all those probabilities, you have 1 in 637,183. In other words, the expected return of this whole thing is (1583031/3)*(1/637183) = 82.92%.
As we know, the expected return in the lottery is about 50%.
To make a hypothetical lottery game that paid $1,585,031 on a $3 bet, to hold a house edge of 50%, the probability of winning would have to be 1 in 1,056,687.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lottery.
However, my goal was to show a path you could at least have a chance to parlay $3 into say $300 million. The big Vegas casinos generally have a maximum bet in baccarat of $1 million. How to go beyond that?
I looked into binary options, but the places I found online had maximum transactions of $100,000. I also thought about stock options, but those don't have clearly defined wins and probabilities.
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
I may be late to the party, but what casino is going to allow you to bet that much? Not any that will let you start out with a $3 roulette bet, that is for sure.
Quote: FCBLComish
I may be late to the party, but what casino is going to allow you to bet that much? Not any that will let you start out with a $3 roulette bet, that is for sure.
You could bet $3 in roulette as the Casino Royale on a single number and then walk over to the Venetian who will happily take the action the rest of the way.
Quote: WizardYou could bet $3 in roulette as the Casino Royale on a single number and then walk over to the Venetian who will happily take the action the rest of the way.
Would you have to be an established player to just chunk down $800 grand on a baccarat bet?
I would think any casino would be extremely suspicious if some rando just walked in to their casino and dropped that much money on the table wanting to bet it all at once.
Obviously you'd have to talk them out of the maximum table limit first, but I've seen a high roller try to do that before and they denied him.
Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost yesterday -- I told you so.
And that said, I am going to play PowerBall today. Don't play often, and I know the Wizard will condemn me for it. When PowerBall hits tonight, my money will stay in my pocket until the pot(s) get huge, again.
Quote: WizardYou could bet $3 in roulette as the Casino Royale on a single number and then walk over to the Venetian who will happily take the action the rest of the way.
I don't think they will take the action happily or otherwise.
You would probably have to run it up to about 20K, and then move to Caesars for the rest of it.
I decided that it would pretty much ruin my life and my family’s life.
I decided I would never play the mega huge lotteries again.
20 mil or less for me. An amount that would change my life, but still allow me to have a “normal life”
Quote: FinsRuleI spent the last couple of days thinking about what would happen if I won a billion dollars.
I decided that it would pretty much ruin my life and my family’s life.
I decided I would never play the mega huge lotteries again.
20 mil or less for me. An amount that would change my life, but still allow me to have a “normal life”
Or you could hit a mega and give away all but a couple of million.
Quote: Wizard
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lottery.
However, my goal was to show a path you could at least have a chance to parlay $3 into say $300 million. The big Vegas casinos generally have a maximum bet in baccarat of $1 million. How to go beyond that?
I looked into binary options, but the places I found online had maximum transactions of $100,000. I also thought about stock options, but those don't have clearly defined wins and probabilities.
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
Quite possibly my favorite post...ever.
However, if we take this further, and assume there is no casino max bet, and you keep parlaying the baccarat banker bet...
To win >$1,260,000,000 the chances are 1/569,743,959 -- the chances to win the MegaMillions is 1/302,575,350 (no splits - again, another assumption)
So, if the pot grows > $1.2 billion, wouldn't it be "better" to play Mega Millions to win the billions?
Also, I don't know about anyone else, but I don't think I'd have the stomach to parlay much past the second or third baccarat bet. I'd take my five digits and run.
Quote: TigerWuWinning numbers: 5 28 62 65 70 Megaball 5
I spent $4 on tickets and won $2.
My birthday is in there. If I had played. And if I'd used my birthday. And if I had picked the other numbers for some reason. I would have bought you all real dolls
Quote: TigerWuWould you have to be an established player to just chunk down $800 grand on a baccarat bet?
He would have already established himself doubling up to that amount. It is proven clean money.
I would bet the Wynn, Venetian, Aria, Bellagio, and others would take that bet if the player doubled up in front of their noses getting there.
Quote: bushmanAnd that said, I am going to play PowerBall today.
I will now say "Don't waste your money on the PowerBall." This way I can keep saying "I told you so."
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuite possibly my favorite post...ever.
Thanks. Hardly one of my best though.
Quote:However, if we take this further, and assume there is no casino max bet, and you keep parlaying the baccarat banker bet...
To win >$1,260,000,000 the chances are 1/569,743,959 -- the chances to win the MegaMillions is 1/302,575,350 (no splits - again, another assumption)
So, if the pot grows > $1.2 billion, wouldn't it be "better" to play Mega Millions to win the billions?
That's a good point.
Your math is right. I will say that after the lump sum, the last jackpot was only $940 million.
I think a good way to simplify the comparison would be a jackpot of $646,173,675. There my method would have a chance of 1 in 288,764,247. Pretty close to MegaMillions, but a little better. Also this assumes no chance of jackpot sharing. If the true after lump sum prize grew to 1.2 billion, which would be a real jackpot of about 2.0 billion, I would argue the jackpot would likely be split about 4 ways.
So, while it gets close, I would argue that after factoring in jackpot sharing, my strategy will always be better at any jackpot amount. It also allows for the "chicken out" option, which I'm sure most people would take at some point.
That's what I get for trusting the Google snippet.Quote: MichaelBluejayWith odds of 1 in 258,890,850...]
Quote: WizardThe odd are 1 in combin(70,5)*25 = 1 in 302,575,350.
Quote: Wizard
So, while it gets close, I would argue that after factoring in jackpot sharing, my strategy will always be better at any jackpot amount. It also allows for the "chicken out" option, which I'm sure most people would take at some point.
With respect, that's my only problem with the strategy, for a couple of reasons.
1.) Because of the chicken out option, which almost everyone is going to take at some point...and probably everyone if we're being real, it's not apples-to-apples. Let's be honest, if you're starting with a $2 or $3 bet, it's not because thousands to tens of thousands etc. is a trivial sum of money.
2.) As you continue betting, the dollar amount of your expected loss goes up, and so goes up your hourly expected loss. I'm not saying that the expected loss amount exceeds the lottery in terms of the base bet, but after that first roulette hit, your expected loss on the next spin of the wheel is greater than the lottery ticket costs to begin with.
3.) The method has a chance of 0 out of 0 because, as you pointed out before, the casinos are going to have a hard limit of one million dollars. Look at Borgata in Atlantic City:
https://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/MGR2018/201809revenue.pdf
Last month, they won $17,237,135 on table games. September isn't the biggest month, but nor is it the smallest. If they let you try to get to that $646,173,675, and you do succeed, you've wiped out their win (not just their profit, their entire win) for roughly three years.
The only reason Powerball and Mega Millions get where they do, even with the odds, is because multiple states are involved.
Multiple casinos? Doesn't matter:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MGM/
If you scroll down to their 2017 earnings, you'll see that the 600-something million is roughly one-third of the earnings for the entire year. Your win would literally change the value of their stock overnight. Your win alone would be about 5% of the stock's market cap. It would completely destroy some companies.
That and the investors would think MGM was insane for taking the action and bail. Only one side of the table is supposed to be gambling.
Anyway, I do agree with you that there are theoretically better ways to do it. I just don't think there are ways to do it that actually exist. Certainly not with the ease of throwing down $2 when you're pumping gas and saying, "Give me a Mega Millions Quick Pick and twenty bucks on pump five."
It is gambling, too, because the advantage the lottery has is that they basically can't lose. They get to play these hundreds of millions going out all the time into the long run mostly because it is almost entirely player funded. The casino would not have that advantage or assurance because you're talking about a one-time proposition on a game that is completely house-banked.
Quote: Mission1463.) The method has a chance of 0 out of 0 because,...
We had a huge thread on the value of 0^0, why not 0/0?
Quote:The only reason Powerball and Mega Millions get where they do, even with the odds, is because multiple states are involved.
...
I don't disagree with you. I already said you can only realistically bet up to a million in the biggest casinos. I'm not sure I see our point of departure here.
Quote: michael99000You would have 25 different tickets that all match the first five numbers , because to have every combination of 302 million that are possible , you’d have to have a ticket with the first 5 numbers correct plus all 25 different mega balls with it.
So that’s $24 million worth in those winners.
I would be comfortable excluding every ticket with a string of four or five consecutive numbers, so there’s some savings there too.
Quote: AyecarumbaI would be comfortable excluding every ticket with a string of four or five consecutive numbers, so there’s some savings there too.
No. They are equally likely as any other combination.
But, if you hit it with those numbers, expect to share with many other winners.
and what if the person isn't buying the tix primarily for financial gain but rather for social value?Quote: WizardI will now say "Don't waste your money on the PowerBall."
This way I can keep saying "I told you so."
3 or 4days talking with friends/co-workers about the big jackpot.
then the day after:
did you hit any #s?,
I won 1000.... pennies,
talking about the person who won,
speculating about why is it always a store in a small poor town that hits the big jackpots,
etc
Quote: 100xOddsand what if the person isn't buying the tix primarily for financial gain but rather for social value?
3 or 4days talking with friends/co-workers about the big jackpot.
then the day after:
did you hit any #s?,
I won 1000.... pennies,
talking about the person who won,
speculating about why is it always a store in a small poor town that hits the big jackpots,
etc
Suppose the winning ticket was left on a dashboard on a sunny day and is now unreadable. What happens to the unclaimed prize? Just the daily interest alone would be a chunk of change.
Quote: FinsRuleI spent the last couple of days thinking about what would happen if I won a billion dollars.
I decided that it would pretty much ruin my life and my family’s life.
I decided I would never play the mega huge lotteries again.
20 mil or less for me. An amount that would change my life, but still allow me to have a “normal life”
I've thought about that, too, and how life-ruining it could be if you had a sudden windfall of hundreds of millions of dollars.
I would think you'd have to completely abandon all of your friends, maybe even some family depending on how you get along with them, and start a new life somewhere else. You may even have to change your name. Luckily for me I don't have many friends or much of a social life, so it wouldn't be too difficult.
I would probably start multiple charities, invest in numerous companies, buy a piece of a sports team or two, become a casino whale, and try to remain as anonymous as possible.
Quote: TigerWuI've thought about that, too, and how life-ruining it could be if you had a sudden windfall of hundreds of millions of dollars.
I would think you'd have to completely abandon all of your friends, maybe even some family depending on how you get along with them, and start a new life somewhere else. You may even have to change your name. Luckily for me I don't have many friends or much of a social life, so it wouldn't be too difficult.
I would probably start multiple charities, invest in numerous companies, buy a piece of a sports team or two, become a casino whale, and try to remain as anonymous as possible.
To each their own, but it seems like most people who become suddenly rich or famous say they do best with friends they had before whatever happened. They can't trust the motives of most people they meet after that - whether those motives are honest or not.
I'm sure she'll toss me a million.
All us losers are really AP winners. :-)
That loss rebate has to turn the Megamillions to a +EV play. Take that Wizard!
Quote: unJonI got an email from MGM Springfield. They are offering freeplay up to $20 in the amount of your losing Mega Millions tickets played between 10/12 and 10/23.
All us losers are really AP winners. :-)
That loss rebate has to turn the Megamillions to a +EV play. Take that Wizard!
I believe the Plaza in Las Vegas was also doing a promotion similar to that.
Quote: OnceDearWas the person who bought [the winning ticket] a fool?
Okay, so let me get this straight:Quote: WizardYes.
Spend $2 on a lottery ticket: FOOLISH
Play 3:2 blackjack with basic strategy at $5/hand for two hours, with a total expected loss of $5: PERFECTLY REASONABLE
You didn't explicitly say that blackjack is perfectly reasonable, but I have to assume you feel that way, since in dozens of pages of blackjack content you've never called out blackjack players as being idiots, like you do for lottery players. Why is the lottery ticket, with a lower expected loss, much stupider than playing a couple hours of blackjack?
Quote: MichaelBluejayOkay, so let me get this straight:Quote: OnceDearWas the person who bought [the winning ticket] a fool?
Spend $2 on a lottery ticket: FOOLISH
Play 3:2 blackjack with basic strategy at $5/hand for two hours, with a total expected loss of $5: PERFECTLY REASONABLE
You didn't explicitly say that blackjack is perfectly reasonable, but I have to assume you feel that way, since in dozens of pages of blackjack content you've never called out blackjack players as being idiots, like you do for lottery players. Why is the lottery ticket, with a lower expected loss, much stupider than playing a couple hours of blackjack?
Variance !!!!!
Quote: FCBLComishQuote: MichaelBluejayOkay, so let me get this straight:Quote: OnceDearWas the person who bought [the winning ticket] a fool?
Spend $2 on a lottery ticket: FOOLISH
Play 3:2 blackjack with basic strategy at $5/hand for two hours, with a total expected loss of $5: PERFECTLY REASONABLE
You didn't explicitly say that blackjack is perfectly reasonable, but I have to assume you feel that way, since in dozens of pages of blackjack content you've never called out blackjack players as being idiots, like you do for lottery players. Why is the lottery ticket, with a lower expected loss, much stupider than playing a couple hours of blackjack?
Variance !!!!!
I’m not convinced. When the amount at stake is such an insignificant fraction of a gambler’s bankroll I don’t think variance should weigh very heavily in the analysis.
I do think there is an interesting discussion to be had about whether to measure the “foolishness” of a game by HE vs EV.
I'm getting bothered by random people when I hit for 2k on video poker
