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Wizard
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Wizard
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December 14th, 2017 at 7:35:22 PM permalink
The thread MEGAMILLIONS NEW 'JUST THE JACKPOT" WAGER got me to taking a new look at Mega Millions. The changed the rules in October so I had to redo my Mega Millions calculator.

As long as I took the trouble to analyze the "just the jackpot" option, I created a new page for the Mega Millions in general. There isn't a lot of data on the relationship between sales and jackpot amount since the rule change so I ignored that for now. I'll add that to my analysis once we see a Mega Millions jackpot of a half billion dollars or so. I would expect a similar relationship as in Powerball, since the two games are now so similar.

Anyway, please have a look at my new page on Mega Millions. I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.

The question for the poll is do you play Mega Millions?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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December 14th, 2017 at 8:29:31 PM permalink
If you invoke the "Just the Jackpot" option, isn't the benefit from the "Megaplier" void since the jackpot is the one win that doesn't multiply?

Also, should the extra cost of the "Megaplier" be deducted from a jackpot win in the table, since it had no effect on the prize?
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gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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December 14th, 2017 at 8:31:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If you invoke the "Just the Jackpot" option, isn't the benefit from the "Megaplier" void since the jackpot is the one win that doesn't multiply?


I would imagine that Just The Jackpot and Megaplier are mutually exclusive.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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December 14th, 2017 at 8:47:14 PM permalink
Normal disclaimer that I am often wrong about these things, but I think you are dividing the total return of the Megaplier by 2 instead of 3 in the table on your Megamillions page.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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December 14th, 2017 at 9:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The question for the poll is do you play Mega Millions?


DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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December 15th, 2017 at 12:32:00 AM permalink
Is the value of just the lower prizes from two tickets worth more than $1? I'm assuming not, but it's 331 am.
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Wizard
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Wizard
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December 15th, 2017 at 7:00:23 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If you invoke the "Just the Jackpot" option, isn't the benefit from the "Megaplier" void since the jackpot is the one win that doesn't multiply?



I doubt the player would even be allowed to do both, since the Megaplier would multiply nothing under the Just the Jackpot option. Is there something on my page that makes you think otherwise?

Quote:

Also, should the extra cost of the "Megaplier" be deducted from a jackpot win in the table, since it had no effect on the prize?



How the Lottery funds the jackpot is not my concern. I'm looking at this from the player point of view.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 15th, 2017 at 8:02:13 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I would imagine that Just The Jackpot and Megaplier are mutually exclusive.



So would I.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 15th, 2017 at 8:06:29 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Normal disclaimer that I am often wrong about these things, but I think you are dividing the total return of the Megaplier by 2 instead of 3 in the table on your Megamillions page.



Let's look at the line item for the $1,000,000 base prize with the Megaplier.

The expected return should be = base prize * probability of winning * average megaplier / bet amount = $1,000,000 * (1/12607306) * 4.733333 / 3 = 0.125148.

Where is my math in error?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SM777
SM777
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December 15th, 2017 at 8:28:38 AM permalink
Good luck to all on your various lottery tickets this weekend.

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