100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 12th, 2017 at 1:00:11 PM permalink
http://www.megamillions.com/how-to-play

Megamillions is now $2 per ticket, same as PowerBall.
but they have a 'Just the Jackpot' option where At a price of $3, the player will receive two plays for the jackpot only.

so 2 tickets for $3 instead of $4 but it's either hit the jackpot or get nothing.

Mathematically, Is this a better or worse bet than just buying a $2 ticket?
(yeah, I know.. tax on the stupid.. but humor me.)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 12th, 2017 at 1:59:07 PM permalink
There are a lot of people that buy the tickets only when there is a big prize, then don't even check the tickets unless they announce that the winning ticket was sold locally.

Math aside, this is a good deal for those types of people.

Is it a good deal overall? I tend to think not.

Note: It doesn't say, but you gotta assume, that the 2 $1.50 tickets are for different numbers.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak 
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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December 12th, 2017 at 2:49:51 PM permalink
I think I did this correctly, someone should double check though.

It depends on the jackpot.




Given a jackpot of $120 million, the value of a regular $2 Megamillions ticket is about $0.60, or $0.30 per dollar wagered.

The value of a $3 "Jackpot Only" ticket is about $0.80, or $0.27 per dollar wagered.

So with $120 million the regular ticket is a better "deal", but not by much. That could change with a higher jackpot, though.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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December 12th, 2017 at 2:54:15 PM permalink
Already discussed here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/29632-new-rules-for-megamillions/
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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December 12th, 2017 at 2:57:12 PM permalink
You're already making a bad bet. Do it all the way. Feel for the first person to get all numbers minus the Powerball over 50 cents.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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December 12th, 2017 at 3:00:07 PM permalink
Dont worry about probability/odds/EV. This is lottery. Just throw in $2/$3/$4 and hope for the best. Hit it and you are set. Case closed.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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December 12th, 2017 at 3:00:35 PM permalink
Here's my guaranteed way to get a 100% return on the lottery:

1) take the money out of your wallet/purse to purchase the tickets.
2) take that money and put it in your pocket.
3) leave the store.
4) DON'T BUY LOTTERY TICKETS!!!!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 12th, 2017 at 3:07:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Already discussed here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/29632-new-rules-for-megamillions/

cant find answer to my question there
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
miplet
miplet 
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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December 12th, 2017 at 3:41:58 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

cant find answer to my question there

Ignoring tax, utility of money, possibly of splitting the jackpot etc, it is better to buy the jackpot only when the jackpot is $225 million or higher.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 12th, 2017 at 5:39:53 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Ignoring tax, utility of money, possibly of splitting the jackpot etc, it is better to buy the jackpot only when the jackpot is $225 million or higher.



I show the break-even point is $241,998,144.

Would you agree the value of the fixed prizes is $0.27606324?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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