The never-ending horse thread
I was thinking of a scenario where the owner of a longshot places a massive bet on his horse to show. The favorite is scratched, and the few horses don't allow show betting. His horse wins, but his bets get refunded.
Quote: billryanI meant the Belmont as he'd already crushed the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
I was thinking of a scenario where the owner of a longshot places a massive bet on his horse to show. The favorite is scratched, and the few horses don't allow show betting. His horse wins, but his bets get refunded.
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It looks like, in New York, if there are four horses, the track has the option to allow show betting or not.
Click on that link for a 16 page betting guide.
Good Luck
https://promos.drf.com/freepps#:~:text=Players%20will%20earn%201%20Past,yet%20a%20DRF%20Bets%20member%3F
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
Quote: SOOPOOWhy horse racing is truly an afterthought….
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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I say retire the horse and put it out to stud as the Derby winner. If it races again and doesn't perform well its stock will go down.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOWhy horse racing is truly an afterthought….
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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I say retire the horse and put it out to stud as the Derby winner. If it races again and doesn't perform well its stock will go down.
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I'd sell three-quarters of the horse now and sit back.
Quote: SOOPOOWhy horse racing is truly an afterthought….
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
link to original post
One thing I wonder: if the Belmont was scheduled for 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park and not 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, would the decision have been different? A Triple Crown this year would have been more like a Triple Coronet; it's just not the same thing without the "Test of the Champion."
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: SOOPOOWhy horse racing is truly an afterthought….
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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One thing I wonder: if the Belmont was scheduled for 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park and not 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, would the decision have been different? A Triple Crown this year would have been more like a Triple Coronet; it's just not the same thing without the "Test of the Champion."
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Doubt it would make a difference in their myopic thinking. The Triple Crown is the only thing the casual sports fan will give two hoots about. How much lower will the TV ratings be for the Preakness without the Derby winner? How much lower will the betting handle be?
Humans run 2 minutes in an 800 yard race, qualify for the finals, then run the same race two days later. These horse races are two minutes. I can’t believe the horses can’t be ready two weeks later.
Quote: SOOPOODoubt it would make a difference in their myopic thinking. The Triple Crown is the only thing the casual sports fan will give two hoots about. How much lower will the TV ratings be for the Preakness without the Derby winner? How much lower will the betting handle be?
Humans run 2 minutes in an 800 yard race, qualify for the finals, then run the same race two days later. These horse races are two minutes. I can’t believe the horses can’t be ready two weeks later.
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Horse racing has had this conversation before. In 1985, Derby winner Spend A Buck skipped the Preakness and the Belmont to try (successfully) to earn a $2 million bonus at the Jersey Derby. I am under the impression that this played a major part in the creation of the Triple Crown Challenge, which started as a $5 million bonus to any horse that could win the Triple Crown.
I have a feeling that any talk of moving the date of the Preakness will turn into talk of moving the location from Pimlico as well. We'll see how well that works next year, as the race is scheduled to be at Laurel Park while Pimlico is finishing its renovations.
Quote: SOOPOO
Humans run 2 minutes in an 800 yard race, qualify for the finals, then run the same race two days later.
it's not meaningful to compare horses to humans
human runners probably weigh an average of about 170 pounds
racehorses average about 1,100 pounds
and they run on very skinny legs
"the trainers of Derby horses that do run in the Preakness do it out of a sense of tradition - not because they like it" - said Trainer Bill Mott
"The debate has been raging for decades about horses not being able to handle the grind of three premier races over a span of five weeks. That was primarily because no one swept the Triple Crown between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah in 2015, a 37-year drought that made industry stakeholders question tradition versus modern-day changes."
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/kansas-city/ap-top-news/2025/05/07/no-kentucky-derby-winner-sovereignty-in-preakness-highlights-some-philosophical-horse-racing-changes
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The Triple Crown was created in 1950 and retroactively awarded to horses that fit the criteria. Before 1950, not every Derby winner competed in the next two legs, because they were not part of any organized trilogy.
From 1950 on, several horses had a chance to sweep after winning the first two races and didn't before Secretariat and then there were three in the next five years. There was talk of changing the races as suddenly it seemed too easy. A thirty-year gap, with numerous horses winning the first two but failing in the third, and Chase offering five million for a TC winner, added to the anticipation.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
Quote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
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A knowledgeable watcher of horse racing would know that the six-whip limit at Kentucky was introduced in 2020 after a spate of horse deaths sparked fury across America.Other jurisdictions have similar rules. https://lanesend.com/post-times/striking-balance-use-whip-horse-racing
I say get rid of the whip as encouragement entirely.
Quote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
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I read about that too. The horse was not really whipped at all because the rider doesn't have a whip. He has a crop. A jockey hitting a horse with a riding crop is like your grandmother hitting you with a cotton sock. If it does anything at all it's probably just a reminder to the horse that the race is still going on and to keep running. How else would a horse know he is still racing?
But it probably doesn't do anything at all because the Derby race times haven't changed significantly for 100 years, back when the horses would be struck with the crop nonstop. Or somebody did a study on this and determined the horse can remember he's supposed to run for 20 seconds so cropping more frequently than that doesn't do any good, and some people think it looks bad.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
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I read about that too. The horse was not really whipped at all because the rider doesn't have a whip. He has a crop. A jockey hitting a horse with a riding crop is like your grandmother hitting you with a cotton sock. If it does anything at all it's probably just a reminder to the horse that the race is still going on and to keep running. How else would a horse know he is still racing?
But it probably doesn't do anything at all because the Derby race times haven't changed significantly for 100 years, back when the horses would be struck with the crop nonstop. Or somebody did a study on this and determined the horse can remember he's supposed to run for 20 seconds so cropping more frequently than that doesn't do any good, and some people think it looks bad.
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Rules are rules, and you gotta follow the rules. He's a jockey and he's supposed to know and follow the rules.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
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I read about that too. The horse was not really whipped at all because the rider doesn't have a whip. He has a crop. A jockey hitting a horse with a riding crop is like your grandmother hitting you with a cotton sock. If it does anything at all it's probably just a reminder to the horse that the race is still going on and to keep running. How else would a horse know he is still racing?
But it probably doesn't do anything at all because the Derby race times haven't changed significantly for 100 years, back when the horses would be struck with the crop nonstop. Or somebody did a study on this and determined the horse can remember he's supposed to run for 20 seconds so cropping more frequently than that doesn't do any good, and some people think it looks bad.
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Rules are rules, and you gotta follow the rules. He's a jockey and he's supposed to know and follow the rules.
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Agree on your point. My point is how silly that there is a rule defining an exact number of times a horse can be whipped. As a casual observer I am not privy to how much force can be exerted each whip? What materials can the ‘crop’ be made of? Is the horse trained in how to respond to being whipped?
A previous poster posited that whipping the horse should just be prohibited. Seems reasonable?
Posted solely for some who might have an actual interest, even if only slightly/casually:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1377245356542919 (3 minute instruction video on Facebook)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Dzt3-wWNV8 (very brief 25 second YouTube description)
Which does not include the individual here who oddly continues to find ways to make more noise on the topic than anyone, for years now, but doesn't give a flying fork about it. ... [Rest of paragraph deleted by me because I'm sure it won't do any good.]
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
link to original post
I read about that too. The horse was not really whipped at all because the rider doesn't have a whip. He has a crop. A jockey hitting a horse with a riding crop is like your grandmother hitting you with a cotton sock. If it does anything at all it's probably just a reminder to the horse that the race is still going on and to keep running. How else would a horse know he is still racing?
But it probably doesn't do anything at all because the Derby race times haven't changed significantly for 100 years, back when the horses would be struck with the crop nonstop. Or somebody did a study on this and determined the horse can remember he's supposed to run for 20 seconds so cropping more frequently than that doesn't do any good, and some people think it looks bad.
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Rules are rules, and you gotta follow the rules. He's a jockey and he's supposed to know and follow the rules.
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Agree on your point. My point is how silly that there is a rule defining an exact number of times a horse can be whipped. As a casual observer I am not privy to how much force can be exerted each whip? What materials can the ‘crop’ be made of? Is the horse trained in how to respond to being whipped?
A previous poster posited that whipping the horse should just be prohibited. Seems reasonable?
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How many times do you need to be "encouraged" to do something before you get pissed off? How many times will you put up with being "encouraged" before you get a chance to respond?
The jockey not only hit him too many times, he hit him again before the horse could respond.
And, yes, the riders are limited to how they can strike a horse, and how crops are made. And I presume that part of the process in training a racehorse is training the noble beast how to respond to the crop.
I'm not aware of anyone who disagrees with the sanction (fine & suspension), other than Alvarado (the jockey), who has a peculiar habit of being clueless about this, and a determination to remain so. He has had a chronic problem with instructions & rules, including this one in particular, and has often been sure he's being unfairly picked on for no reason. In my experience, especially having been an employer, it's the kind of problem that isn't likely limited to matters involving horses, and doesn't readily respond to silly things like mere information & instruction.Quote: GenoDRPh...<preceding dialog snipped>...
How many times do you need to be "encouraged" to do something before you get pissed off? How many times will you put up with being "encouraged" before you get a chance to respond?
The jockey not only hit him too many times, he hit him again before the horse could respond.
And, yes, the riders are limited to how they can strike a horse, and how crops are made. And I presume that part of the process in training a racehorse is training the noble beast how to respond to the crop.
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Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOONot making this up. Derby winning jockey fined 20% of his winning share of the purse, $62k, for overwhipping Sovereignty. He whipped the horse 8 times during the race. Exceeding the allowed 6 whips by two! I’ve watched horse races for the past 6 decades (rarely..) but was never aware there ever was an exact number of acceptable whip applications.
You know, because it is kind and humane to whip the horse 6 times, but brutal and inhumane to whip him 8 times.
link to original post
I read about that too. The horse was not really whipped at all because the rider doesn't have a whip. He has a crop. A jockey hitting a horse with a riding crop is like your grandmother hitting you with a cotton sock. If it does anything at all it's probably just a reminder to the horse that the race is still going on and to keep running. How else would a horse know he is still racing?
But it probably doesn't do anything at all because the Derby race times haven't changed significantly for 100 years, back when the horses would be struck with the crop nonstop. Or somebody did a study on this and determined the horse can remember he's supposed to run for 20 seconds so cropping more frequently than that doesn't do any good, and some people think it looks bad.
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Rules are rules, and you gotta follow the rules. He's a jockey and he's supposed to know and follow the rules.
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Oh no, I'm not challenging that he should be fined at all.
Just that it is a testimony to the efficacy of the crop that it is only a fine and not a disqualification. If he took the crop and started beating on one of the other jockeys during the race it would be a disqualification, but the fact that the authorities only fine him and don't disqualify him for overusing the crop on the horse suggests they don't believe it affects the outcome of the race. They treat it like he flipped the bird to the TV cameras: "Sure, you still win, but here's a fine for looking like a jerk."
The French philosopher Schopenhauer made an observation about this. He hated noise, and one of the noises he hated the most was a cracking whip. The carriage drivers then had actual whips, but they didn't whip the horse, they just cracked it over the horse, but he noted that some of them cracked the whip nonstop when they were driving. Whether the horse was supposed to be going fast or slow, didn't matter, they just cracked it for the sake of cracking it making the streets noisy. And even worse, after the driver stabled the horse and was walking home, sometimes he would crack his whip as he walked, with no horse at all. For self-expression? So he seemed to think it was a tic that horse drivers developed.
Quote: DrawingDeadThe riding crop is primarily a communication device in a cooperation between horse and rider
Then explain to me why they are limited to ‘communicating’ 6 times in a race?
You can’t.
Dude, I just did for chrissakes. Stated it plainly. But I knew it wasn't for your benefit; doesn't matter because of what you are determined to "know" along with the next dozen things you are going to cook up.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DrawingDeadThe riding crop is primarily a communication device in a cooperation between horse and rider
Then explain to me why they are limited to ‘communicating’ 6 times in a race?
You can’t.
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ADD:
Duh.Quote: Me...looking weird, which is the reason for the rule.
Exactly, and well put. As explictly stated during the process of the adoption of the formal rule about it. And implicitly about pointlessly overfilling the feedbag for the world’s inevitable SooPoo trolls.Quote: AutomaticMonkey… a fine for looking like a jerk."
This is a never-ending horse!
Trainer Bob Baffert has done much worse - multiple times - they suspend him but they always allow him to return - his nickname: The Silver Haired Devil
he will be in the Preakness with his horse Goal Oriented_________from the link:____________at the very bottom are the morning line odds for the Preakness
"Baffert has been a subject of controversy due to multiple horses in his stables having failed drug tests. In raw numbers, most medication violations were for exceeding allowable levels on race days of various medications
Baffert came under intense scrutiny in 2013 after seven horses in his stables at Hollywood Park died between November 2, 2011, and March 14, 2013, all from sudden and later unexplained heart attacks. In that period, 36% of all cardiac related horse deaths in California were animals trained by Baffert.
One of his highest profile violations came to light In September 2019 The New York Times reported that Justify tested positive for the banned substance scopolamine after winning the Santa Anita Derby, a race the horse ran prior to winning the Triple Crown. After extensive legal battles, in December 2023 a judge ordered stewards of the California Horse Racing Board to issue a new ruling which would effectively disqualify Justify from that win.
The biggest case arose in 2021, when the post-race test of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit showed 21pg/mL of betamethasone. In Kentucky, any amount of betamethasone detected in post-race testing is a violation and could result in a disqualification. It was also Baffert's fifth medication violation in 13 months.
Controversy deepened on December 6, 2021 when Medina Spirit died of an apparent heart attack after a workout at Santa Anita Park. This reminded the public that since 2000, AT LEAST 74 OTHER HORSES HAVE DIED while in Baffert's stables.
Baffert's ban at Churchill Downs' racetracks was extended in July 2023. One year later, in July 2024, Churchill Downs rescinded the ban after Baffert issued a statement accepting responsibility for Medina Spirit's drug positive and for any substance found in the horses that he trained. "I have paid a very steep price with a three-year suspension and the disqualification of Medina Spirit’s performance," he said, adding that he was "committed to having an amicable resolution with Churchill Downs in order to have the opportunity to compete again for the Triple Crown"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Baffert#Controversies
1. Goal Oriented (6-1)
2. Journalism (8-5)
3. American Promise (15-1)
4. Heart of Honor (12-1)
5. Pay Billy (20-1)
6. River Thames (9-2)
7. Sandman (4-1)
8. Clever Again (5-1)
9. Gosger (20-1)
It should only be used in emergencies for steering purposes and not for encouragement.
Unfortunately, it will never happen because racing is and always will be short sighted.
People can say the horse doesn’t feel it, but they do. Otherwise, why would it be used?
Quote: FinsRuleI own a couple of horses and I am firmly anti-whip.
It should only be used in emergencies for steering purposes and not for encouragement.
Unfortunately, it will never happen because racing is and always will be short sighted.
People can say the horse doesn’t feel it, but they do. Otherwise, why would it be used?
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Do you expressly forbid your jockeys from using one ‘for encouragement’? Wouldn’t that put you at a competitive disadvantage?
Where do you run your horses?
Do you actually make money or is this more an expensive hobby?
I haven’t had a race in a couple years because I’ve been waiting for my horses to get pregnant. We finally had a baby born earlier this month. So he’ll be in the Breeders Cup in 2 years, haha…
The group that I’m a part of is based in the Midwest. So Churchill, Oaklawn, Keeneland, Turfway mainly. I had a stakes winner at Oaklawn, that was a lot of fun.
I only own 2-3% of these horses. It can get expensive. It’s a hobby that I would say loses money 4 out of every 5 years.
Then partying at the barn later. It’s just a lot of fun. I recommend it to anyone who has any interest in racing. Even if it’s 1-5%.
Not the MyRacehorse thing though, that’s fake ownership.
Quote: FinsRuleI would never tell a jockey to not use the whip. I have thanked my jockey for not using the whip too much after a race.
I haven’t had a race in a couple years because I’ve been waiting for my horses to get pregnant. We finally had a baby born earlier this month. So he’ll be in the Breeders Cup in 2 years, haha…
The group that I’m a part of is based in the Midwest. So Churchill, Oaklawn, Keeneland, Turfway mainly. I had a stakes winner at Oaklawn, that was a lot of fun.
I only own 2-3% of these horses. It can get expensive. It’s a hobby that I would say loses money 4 out of every 5 years.
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Does the one good year out of five bring the five year cycle close to break even? My Uncle had horses in the 60s and 70s, but gave them up in the late 80s as it got too expensive. He treated as an expensive hobby. He loved taking the family to breakfast at the track and having us wander the back stretch.
Back then, the stables were full of companion animals. Each barn had a couple of dogs, cats, goats, roosters, ducks, etc.
For a six year old, it was like visiting the zoo.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOWhy horse racing is truly an afterthought….
It has a ‘Triple Crown’. Which a horse is eligible to compete for ONCE. As a 3 year old.
Sovereignty won the Derby. Now of course the only horse with a chance to win the Triple Crown. Except of course his owners are not racing him in the Preakness. You know, the horse that trains every day, with the best feed, the best veterinarians, the best trainers, the best jockeys,…. can’t be ready to run for two minutes after having a 14 day break after running fast for two minutes.
Apparently from 1997-2018 there were zero Derby winners who didn’t try for the Triple Crown. This reminds me of ‘load management’ in the NBA. Just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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I say retire the horse and put it out to stud as the Derby winner. If it races again and doesn't perform well its stock will go down.
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I'd sell three-quarters of the horse now and sit back.
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If you sell three quarters that only leaves you with a quarter horse and they don't sell for as much as thoroughbreds.
Quote: billryanQuote: FinsRuleI would never tell a jockey to not use the whip. I have thanked my jockey for not using the whip too much after a race.
I haven’t had a race in a couple years because I’ve been waiting for my horses to get pregnant. We finally had a baby born earlier this month. So he’ll be in the Breeders Cup in 2 years, haha…
The group that I’m a part of is based in the Midwest. So Churchill, Oaklawn, Keeneland, Turfway mainly. I had a stakes winner at Oaklawn, that was a lot of fun.
I only own 2-3% of these horses. It can get expensive. It’s a hobby that I would say loses money 4 out of every 5 years.
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Does the one good year out of five bring the five year cycle close to break even? My Uncle had horses in the 60s and 70s, but gave them up in the late 80s as it got too expensive. He treated as an expensive hobby. He loved taking the family to breakfast at the track and having us wander the back stretch.
Back then, the stables were full of companion animals. Each barn had a couple of dogs, cats, goats, roosters, ducks, etc.
For a six year old, it was like visiting the zoo.
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The barn animals are still there. And if you go to Hawthorne, you get to see giant rats!
No, the good years make up for maybe 2-3 bad ones. You’ll end up down overall unless you get super lucky.
this is a recreational bet - not claiming an edge
gonna make a wimpy bet to Place on the probable fave Journalism
he's much the best of this field
I'm thinking all the soft money on the big race days tend to over bet the longshots
12 races before the Preakness - 95% or more of the punters will be down by then - many will look to shots to get even or get ahead
if the shots are over bet by a lot and they fail to score as so very often happens the lower odds horses may pay more than fair value
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Quote: lilredrooster.
this is a recreational bet - not claiming an edge
gonna make a wimpy bet to Place on the probable fave Journalism
he's much the best of this field
I'm thinking all the soft money on the big race days tend to over bet the longshots
12 races before the Preakness - 95% or more of the punters will be down by then - many will look to shots to get even or get ahead
if the shots are over bet by a lot and they fail to score as so very often happens the lower odds horses may pay more than fair value
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Paid 40%. Not bad for you!
It’s just amazing how a horse that ran in the Derby recovered from the two minute race in only two weeks.
he's now 89 years old
that's pretty amazing
I'm sure he gets plenty of help from assistants but still -
some highlights of his career:
He has won Breeder's Cup races a record 20 times. Fillies Lukas has trained have won the Kentucky Oaks four times. Three of his horses—Lady's Secret in 1986, Criminal Type in 1990 and Charismatic in 1999—won the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. He has a total of 25 horses that have won various Eclipse Awards.[2] He has won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer four times. In 1999, the same year his horse Charismatic came within 2 lengths of the Triple Crown, he was inducted into the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. He was inducted into the American Quarter Horse Hall of Fame in 2007,[5] becoming the first person to enter both the Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse halls of fame. In 2013 he was awarded the Eclipse Award of Merit for his accomplishments.[2] In 1988, Lukas received the Golden Plate Award of the American Academy of Achievement presented by Awards Council member Gene Klein.
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it's really strange to me - I don't understand it
Jockey Junior Alvarado was fined and suspended for using his crop on his horse 8 times in the Kentucky Derby - see link
my understanding of the rules is that jocks are allowed to whip the horse no more than 6 times during a race
but if you watch the vid of the Preakness - starting at 2:21 - you can see jock Umberto Rispoli whipping Journalism (I counted) 13 times down the stretch with his crop
the horse who got 2nd and was overtaken - Gosger - I counted being whipped only twice down the stretch
the horse who got 3rd - Sandman - I also counted being whipped only twice down the stretch
yet no media chatter about this - and nothing about breaking rules - I don't get it at all
maybe D.D. can weigh in on this - he is an expert on horse racing
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https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/horse-racing/2025/05/09/kentucky-derby-2025-junior-alvarado-fine-sovereignty-ride/83534144007/
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kinna amusing - to me anyway
this writer has posted the morning line odds for the Belmont Stakes - and then what he considers to be fair odds
the horse Uncaged - morning line 30/1 he sees as fair odds being 200/1___________:)
Heart of Honor - 30/1 on the morning line he estimates fair value as being 106/1__________________:)
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https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Belmont_fair_odds_Late_entry_tips_value_scale_to_this_Derby_also_ran_123
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gonna make a wimpy bet to Place on Sovereignty the probable fave at the Belmont Stakes
this is a very obvious thing - no genius involved in this pick
many see it as really being a 2 horse race between Journalism and Sovereignty
Sovereignty came running late in the Derby and overtook Journalism to get the win
Journalism tired a bit and almost didn't get 2nd
I like horses that come running late and the Belmont is longer than the Derby by a quarter mile
it all may just be an illusion - Sovereignty may have just liked the slop better - rain is forecast for NYC today
again hoping the longshot lovers will lose as usual and over bet the shots and cause a decent payout on the short price winner
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Belmont Racetrack is literally just east of NYC with the dividing line running through the tracks parking lots.
One of Belmont's parking lots is in NYC, but the track is in Nassau County. This year, the race was moved because Belmont is under construction.
It's also not the traditional mile and a half distance, either.
Quote: billryanThis year it is being held a couple of hundred miles north of the city in Saratoga.
This year, the race was moved because Belmont is under construction.
It's also not the traditional mile and a half distance, either.
good points that I overlooked - my bad
Saratoga is also forecast for rain today
and the race will be the same distances as the Derby - shorter than in NY - 1.25 miles
and Umberto Rispoli the jock on Journalism is a better jock than Junior Alvarado the jock on Sovereignty
Rispoli has won about 22% of his races this year and has been in the money about 55% - that is outstanding
I noticed that except for the Derby Journalism's speed figures (the complex way a horse's raw speed is measured) are significantly higher that those of Sovereignty
edit - for that reason I've decided to change my pick and my bet to:
to Place on Journalism
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Quote: billryanJust one thing- this race is not in NYC. This year it is being held a couple of hundred miles north of the city in Saratoga.
Belmont Racetrack is literally just east of NYC with the dividing line running through the tracks parking lots.
One of Belmont's parking lots is in NYC, but the track is in Nassau County. This year, the race was moved because Belmont is under construction.
It's also not the traditional mile and a half distance, either.
link to original post
Do the horses know that?
Quote: FatGeezusQuote: billryanJust one thing- this race is not in NYC. This year it is being held a couple of hundred miles north of the city in Saratoga.
Belmont Racetrack is literally just east of NYC with the dividing line running through the tracks parking lots.
One of Belmont's parking lots is in NYC, but the track is in Nassau County. This year, the race was moved because Belmont is under construction.
It's also not the traditional mile and a half distance, either.
link to original post
Do the horses know that?
link to original post
Of course they do! They can figure it out by the spacing out of the 6 allowed whippings they get.
(Teasing…)
I’ve mentioned it before, but I guarded Spectacular Bid before his Belmont run. Summer job as a Pinkerton.
Quote: FatGeezusQuote: billryanJust one thing- this race is not in NYC. This year it is being held a couple of hundred miles north of the city in Saratoga.
Belmont Racetrack is literally just east of NYC with the dividing line running through the tracks parking lots.
One of Belmont's parking lots is in NYC, but the track is in Nassau County. This year, the race was moved because Belmont is under construction.
It's also not the traditional mile and a half distance, either.
link to original post
Do the horses know that?
link to original post
I'd hope so. It would be embarrassing if the horse showed up at the wrong track.
what follows is an AI overview of what racehorses "know" about racing
"While horses don't have the abstract concept of "winning" or the broader understanding of what a race is in the human sense, they definitely know they are racing. They recognize the competition environment, and their training and natural instincts combine to drive their performance.
Here's what they know about the experience of racing:
They recognize the changed routine: Race days have a different routine, including specialized feeding, grooming, and handling, which signals to the horses that something different is happening.
They understand they are running alongside other horses: Horses are social animals with an innate tendency to run together. This herding instinct, combined with training, plays a significant role in their desire to stay with the pack and run at speed.
They are aware of the competitive environment: Horses perceive the increased activity, crowd noise, and heightened emotions from both humans and other horses at the race track.
They respond to jockey cues: Through training, they learn to respond to the jockey's commands and use of aids like the whip to increase speed and maintain position, overriding their natural tendencies.
They can feel the excitement and tension: Horses are very sensitive to the emotions of their riders and the surrounding crowd. They mirror these feelings, which can fuel their own performance.
While they don't necessarily understand the concept of "winning" a human-defined race, they can recognize individual accomplishments, such as passing other horses, and they might feel a sense of pride or dejection depending on their performance and the reactions of those around them. "
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Quote: billryanAnimals understand the pecking order and how one moves up it. They also know when they have pleased or displeased their humans.
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Because they are domesticated animals, being part of human activity is normal for them and being outside of the human world feels risky.
When you leave your dog at home, the dog doesn't know why you left and isn't sure you are coming back.
