The never-ending horse thread
May 29th, 2019 at 6:29:57 AM
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Quote: lilredroosternice story
I remember after Cigar's last race Bill Mott took him to a racetrack just to say goodbye and let him gallop around the track and people had tears in their eyes
Friend and I went to Del Mar the day Cigar was trying to break Citation's win streak. We couldn't move, there were so many people. Could not get close to the paddock or walking ring, so we hopped on the roof. It was the only place we could see anything. Security didn't even say anything.
Of course, we all know they did 6f in 1:09 and change, cost Cigar the race. And I had bought a bunch of $2 tickets. It was a fun day regardless. I don't know how many Tecates and fish tacos I did.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
September 12th, 2019 at 3:16:17 AM
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Justify failed a drug test before winning the Kentucky Derby and should have been DQed
he tested positive for scopolamine - an illegal performance enhancing drug
I've always suspected Baffert - his win and in the money %s have been so very high
another body blow for Santa Anita and California racing - that is where the test was performed - looks like they covered it up probably to protect Baffert who is revered in CA
this is going to be a very big deal - I think it's possible they will retroactively take away his Derby win - declare it inauthentic for historical records - but those gamblers who bet against him will still be SOL - they're not going to be compensated
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/sports/horse-racing/justify-drug-test-triple-crown-kentucky-derby.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
he tested positive for scopolamine - an illegal performance enhancing drug
I've always suspected Baffert - his win and in the money %s have been so very high
another body blow for Santa Anita and California racing - that is where the test was performed - looks like they covered it up probably to protect Baffert who is revered in CA
this is going to be a very big deal - I think it's possible they will retroactively take away his Derby win - declare it inauthentic for historical records - but those gamblers who bet against him will still be SOL - they're not going to be compensated
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/sports/horse-racing/justify-drug-test-triple-crown-kentucky-derby.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 12, 2019
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 12th, 2019 at 6:11:24 AM
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4 dead horses at Belmont so far this meet.......
Try and imagine if human athletes died at 10% the rate these horses do.........
Try and imagine if human athletes died at 10% the rate these horses do.........
September 12th, 2019 at 6:54:52 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO4 dead horses at Belmont so far this meet.......
Try and imagine if human athletes died at 10% the rate these horses do.........
where did you get this %?- there is a problem but what you are stating is not remotely close to being accurate
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 12th, 2019 at 8:46:13 AM
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DrawingDead, a very knowledgeable guy who doesn't post here anymore was right on the money
he accused Baffert of being a druggy more than a couple of years ago
he accused Baffert of being a druggy more than a couple of years ago
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 12th, 2019 at 11:11:28 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterwhere did you get this %?- there is a problem but what you are stating is not remotely close to being accurate
You are right. I mis-remembered NYPost article from yesterday.
Headline..... Three horses dead in first week at Belmont Park.
two more at saratoga.
one more at Finger Lakes
Since 2009 Belmont averaged over 40 deaths per year. Easily google-able.
I stand by my question.
TRY AND IMAGINE IF HUMAN ATHLETES DIED AT 10% THE RATE THESE HORSES DO!
September 12th, 2019 at 12:06:05 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
TRY AND IMAGINE IF HUMAN ATHLETES DIED AT 10% THE RATE THESE HORSES DO!
you can stand by whatever you want but the 10% figure you keeps saying is total BS - if you don't want to admit it okay - I don't care
from a related NYT article from April 2019:
"The Louisville Courier-Journal recently proclaimed Churchill Downs one of the “deadliest racetracks” in America and reported that the track had lost 43 thoroughbreds to racing injuries since 2016, an average of 2.42 per 1,000 starts, "
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/sports/horse-deaths-kentucky-derby.html
from Wikipedia:
statistical interpretation - Churchill 2.42 per 1,000 starts since 2016 - very bad
a claimer - a heavily raced racehorse will average about 20 starts in his career
1,000 starts equals approximately the racing careers of 50 claimers
out of 50 claimers about 2.42 would die or about 4.84 out of 100
except a great many racehorses are not claimers and do not run anywhere near 20 races in their lifetimes
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 12, 2019
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 12th, 2019 at 12:25:39 PM
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Quote: lilredroosteryou can stand by whatever you want but the 10% figure you keeps saying is total BS - if you don't want to admit it okay - I don't care
(Quote truncates)
You are misunderstanding SooPoo. He’s saying “imagine” if for every 10 racehorse deaths there was a human athlete death. If the right stat is 40 horses a year then imagine 4 human athletes a year die. It’s a thought experiment.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 12th, 2019 at 12:31:41 PM
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Quote: unJon(Quote truncates)
You are misunderstanding SooPoo. He’s saying “imagine” if for every 10 racehorse deaths there was a human athlete death. If the right stat is 40 horses a year then imagine 4 human athletes a year die. It’s a thought experiment.
yes, I now get it - what he was saying - thanks for the clarification
the underlying thought being how greatly we care about human life
the Rohingya people were mercilessly slaughtered and driven out Mynamar recently - many observers called it a genocide
who cared around the world? - very few - we care greatly about humans - if they live in our country and look like us - if not - we don't care very much
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rohingya_genocide
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 12th, 2019 at 12:48:59 PM
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Quote: lilredroosteryes, I now get it - what he was saying - thanks for the clarification
You misunderstood Soopoo like I misunderstood you a few weeks ago when I made a fool out of myself. lol Join the crowd.
Anyway, if I took enough scopolamine, the LAST thing I would feel like doing is running around a track for two minutes. I remember that being some nasty stuff. How could it "enhance" performance, except to prevent the horse from getting car sick?
Before Baffert was a famous big shot, he used to run Quarter Horses at Los Alamitos, a small 5/8th track not far from Long Beach. I used to hang out there religiously when I was younger.
Thanks for posting this, I had not heard about it yet. Not good.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
September 12th, 2019 at 1:30:14 PM
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Quote: bobbartopYou misunderstood Soopoo like I misunderstood you a few weeks ago when I made a fool out of myself. lol Join the crowd.
Anyway, if I took enough scopolamine,
Thanks for helping me. I am well aware that horse owners have a substantial investment in their horses and of course don't want them to die! But they are not doing a good job of it.
I'm interested to understand why horses would run better on scopolamine. Pretty sure humans wouldn't. I've used it to alleviate post op nausea for decades. I guess I'll google it......
Acts as a bronchodilator (used for asthma) and speed up heart rate (multiple drugs can do that).
September 12th, 2019 at 2:37:28 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOThanks for helping me. I am well aware that horse owners have a substantial investment in their horses and of course don't want them to die! But they are not doing a good job of it.
I'm interested to understand why horses would run better on scopolamine. Pretty sure humans wouldn't. I've used it to alleviate post op nausea for decades. I guess I'll google it......
Acts as a bronchodilator (used for asthma) and speed up heart rate (multiple drugs can do that).
I may be showing my ignorance, but I thought that was what Lasix was supposed to do. Speaking of Lasix, I have read an opinion from a serious player who believes they use lasix as a masking agent to hide OTHER drugs from the industry labs. He thinks it's epidemic. Of course, some state, or states, don't allow lasix. Pretty sure New York was like that, or still is. A problem exists when financial reasons "force" owners/trainers to race horses that are not ready to race. When drugs are used to hide infirmities, bad things happen.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
September 13th, 2019 at 4:40:50 PM
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The story now is that Justify ate contaminated feed. According to the California Horse Racing Board six other horses stabled at Santa Anita tested positive at the same time. If true, the incident would be classified as a poisoning rather than a drugging.
Last edited by: Gialmere on Sep 13, 2019
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
September 13th, 2019 at 5:19:39 PM
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Quote: GialmereThe story now is that Justify ate contaminated feed. According to the California Horse Racing Board six other horses stabled at Santa Anita tested positive at the same time. If true, the incident would be classified as a poisoning rather than a drugging.
Jimson Weed, very nasty stuff. It's all over the place and I have often wondered how they prevent cows from eating it because I'm sure it must get mixed up in the bundling process. I can see it growing in alfalfa fields any day. I'm sure I could go for a walk right now and see plenty of it. There's no mistaking it when you know what it looks like. Distinctive white flowers.
When I was a teenager, I knew three other teens who decided they wanted to get high from it. Bad decision. They broke open the pods and each ingested a dozen seeds, and they were stark raving hallucinating lunatics when the ambulance got there. Morons.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
April 26th, 2020 at 2:16:23 AM
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1;58 long - whatever you do don't miss the call on the winner beginning at about 1:43................. 😃
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
April 26th, 2020 at 8:24:38 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster1;58 long - whatever you do don't miss the call on the winner beginning at about 1:43................. 😃
Gave me my daily laugh!
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
July 2nd, 2020 at 1:24:51 PM
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Belmont has a really nice card for the 4th
5 graded stakes including 2 grade 1s
the 9th race, the Met Mile, at 5:47 will be televised by NBC
I always prefer watching on TV to my computer
this race features 3 Grade 1 winners battling it out - Vekoma, McKinzie, and Code of Honor
Vekoma and McKinzie are stalkers and Code of Honor is a closer
there's not a lot of speed in the race - looks like just Warrior's Charge out of post 8
but anyway, at least the big 3 should have a target
this race is a real winner to bet and to watch
some rain in the forecast - 15% - hopefully the track will be dry for this race
5 graded stakes including 2 grade 1s
the 9th race, the Met Mile, at 5:47 will be televised by NBC
I always prefer watching on TV to my computer
this race features 3 Grade 1 winners battling it out - Vekoma, McKinzie, and Code of Honor
Vekoma and McKinzie are stalkers and Code of Honor is a closer
there's not a lot of speed in the race - looks like just Warrior's Charge out of post 8
but anyway, at least the big 3 should have a target
this race is a real winner to bet and to watch
some rain in the forecast - 15% - hopefully the track will be dry for this race
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 2nd, 2020 at 5:34:07 PM
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Very good race indeed. I am a Code of Honor fan so that is where I would land. You could make a case for a few of these in here. None are really mile specialists per say. I also think the BC Classic is the real prize for at least 2 of these (Mckinzie/COH) in a few more months.
Click on McKinzie's Ultimate pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Click on McKinzie's Ultimate pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
July 9th, 2020 at 8:45:57 AM
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Keeneland has a very impressive card this Saturday that includes 6 graded stakes races
I'll be plunging on 2 of them in the secondary pools if I can get decent odds and it looks like I will get them
race 3, a long sprint, I like the closer Sally Curlin who was let go at 10/1 last race and that is her ML even though she won that race
she hit the gate off the break, then circled the field coming up 7 wide to get the win
in other races she has earned the extremely positive comments 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 and 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘢𝘴𝘵
they let her go off so high I think because they figured her for a router and she got shortened up
I usually don't like closers but I think this may be a special horse and I find her irresistible
I usually don't bet based on breeding but her daddy was Curlin who was a great one
the likely odds on fave Guarana is a speedster who is very tough and a legit fave
there's 2 other speedsters who I'm hoping will wear her down as they duel for the lead
the 7th race is 3 year old fillies going 8.5 furlongs. all of them have graded stakes experience except Envoutante and I like her
she's sure to go off at good odds as they focus on the others of higher class
in her last race at the same distance she finished the last 2.5 furlongs in a little over 30 seconds which is very impressive for a 3 year old filly
I'll be plunging on 2 of them in the secondary pools if I can get decent odds and it looks like I will get them
race 3, a long sprint, I like the closer Sally Curlin who was let go at 10/1 last race and that is her ML even though she won that race
she hit the gate off the break, then circled the field coming up 7 wide to get the win
in other races she has earned the extremely positive comments 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 and 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘢𝘴𝘵
they let her go off so high I think because they figured her for a router and she got shortened up
I usually don't like closers but I think this may be a special horse and I find her irresistible
I usually don't bet based on breeding but her daddy was Curlin who was a great one
the likely odds on fave Guarana is a speedster who is very tough and a legit fave
there's 2 other speedsters who I'm hoping will wear her down as they duel for the lead
the 7th race is 3 year old fillies going 8.5 furlongs. all of them have graded stakes experience except Envoutante and I like her
she's sure to go off at good odds as they focus on the others of higher class
in her last race at the same distance she finished the last 2.5 furlongs in a little over 30 seconds which is very impressive for a 3 year old filly
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 9th, 2020 at 11:28:14 AM
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I haven't started cappin the Saturday card yet @ Keeneland (working on Friday now). But I am betting on all 5 days of the special summer meet. I had a small profit yesterday and just missed the early pick 5/pick 4 for ~$2.5k. Keeneland does pay for 4 out of 5 (consolation) on their pick 5s, which I like.
July 11th, 2020 at 8:37:42 AM
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To follow up on the Keenelnad races you mentioned:
Race #5 - Madison Stakes (G1)
I also like #3 Sally's Curlin in the race and I will also use the #8 Bell's The One.
I do think Guarana could take some pace pressure and the field is large so lots can happen.
Race #7 - Ashland (G1)
I am not even going to try and beat the favorite #4 Venetian Harbour.
#5 Tonalist Shape scratching also eliminates a speed challenger to VH, which would have helped the #7.
Great day of races, but very challenging to handicap. GLTA
Race #5 - Madison Stakes (G1)
I also like #3 Sally's Curlin in the race and I will also use the #8 Bell's The One.
I do think Guarana could take some pace pressure and the field is large so lots can happen.
Race #7 - Ashland (G1)
I am not even going to try and beat the favorite #4 Venetian Harbour.
#5 Tonalist Shape scratching also eliminates a speed challenger to VH, which would have helped the #7.
Great day of races, but very challenging to handicap. GLTA
July 11th, 2020 at 10:48:10 AM
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K -
I noticed Brisnet gave Guarana a relatively poor speed figure of 91 for her last race along a negative comment
Sally's Curlin was given a higher 99 for her last race
that's a pretty big difference
but Equibase gave them each a 105 for their last races
what do you think? is this stuff worthless or what?
you would have to pay to get Beyers - worth it? I don't know - I'm skeptical
I re-evaluated my pick for race 7 - Envoutante - don't like her as much - am going to pass on the race
I noticed Brisnet gave Guarana a relatively poor speed figure of 91 for her last race along a negative comment
Sally's Curlin was given a higher 99 for her last race
that's a pretty big difference
but Equibase gave them each a 105 for their last races
what do you think? is this stuff worthless or what?
you would have to pay to get Beyers - worth it? I don't know - I'm skeptical
I re-evaluated my pick for race 7 - Envoutante - don't like her as much - am going to pass on the race
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 11th, 2020 at 2:52:14 PM
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No luck in those 2 races @ Kee. Guarana dug deep to retake the lead in the Madison. And Speech really romped in the Ashland. Keeneland is difficult, but I love the quality of the fields and races.
July 16th, 2020 at 4:00:23 AM
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Baffert was suspended by the Arkansas Racing Commission and 2 of his horses' victories have been vacated
this is the first time that I'm aware of that racing's Golden Boy has been on the receiving end of a serious disciplinary action
from the article:
"Baffert has also caught the attention of regulators over the years. These are his 26th and 27th drug violations, according to public records compiled by the Association of Racetrack Commissioners International and the Thoroughbred Regulatory Rulings database maintained by the Jockey Club."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/sports/bob-baffert-suspended-charlatan-gamine.html
this is the first time that I'm aware of that racing's Golden Boy has been on the receiving end of a serious disciplinary action
from the article:
"Baffert has also caught the attention of regulators over the years. These are his 26th and 27th drug violations, according to public records compiled by the Association of Racetrack Commissioners International and the Thoroughbred Regulatory Rulings database maintained by the Jockey Club."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/sports/bob-baffert-suspended-charlatan-gamine.html
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 16th, 2020 at 7:55:02 AM
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the big race Saturday, the Haskell, will be televised by ABC
I like the 2nd fave - Dr Post
I expect him to be in the money - with only a 7 horse field he should have room to close
post 1 is a concern - I guess Bravo will handle it
in their lone tries at 9 furlongs the sure to be fave Authentic lost ground in the stretch while Dr Post gained
I'm skeptical of speed figures - I note that Dr Post was more than 1 second faster at Belmont on a fast track then Authentic was at Santa Anita on a fast track at the same distance - I'm skeptical of final times too but mentioned it anyway
also hoping karma will keep Baffert out of the winner's circle
looks like a nice setup to have the name brand ranked horse Authentic over bet and letting Dr Post go off at decent odds
Monmouth is known as a speed favoring track so that will help Authentic and also cause him to get bet down - you can't have everything
I like the 2nd fave - Dr Post
I expect him to be in the money - with only a 7 horse field he should have room to close
post 1 is a concern - I guess Bravo will handle it
in their lone tries at 9 furlongs the sure to be fave Authentic lost ground in the stretch while Dr Post gained
I'm skeptical of speed figures - I note that Dr Post was more than 1 second faster at Belmont on a fast track then Authentic was at Santa Anita on a fast track at the same distance - I'm skeptical of final times too but mentioned it anyway
also hoping karma will keep Baffert out of the winner's circle
looks like a nice setup to have the name brand ranked horse Authentic over bet and letting Dr Post go off at decent odds
Monmouth is known as a speed favoring track so that will help Authentic and also cause him to get bet down - you can't have everything
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 16, 2020
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 23rd, 2020 at 5:49:34 AM
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Baffert's Gamine tested positive for Lidocaine in May
she ran again in June and I'm assuming he wasn't foolish enough to mess with her again
anyway, this Filly turned in a spectacular performance winning by more than 18 lengths and earning the top Beyer for all 3 year olds of 110 at the G1 mile at Belmont
she was only .31 off the track record for a mile at Belmont which is astonishing
Baffert may be prepping her for the Oaks - the question of course being can she handle longer distances
it's very exciting to see a filly who is this fast although I wish she wasn't a Baffert horse..................you can't have everything
she ran again in June and I'm assuming he wasn't foolish enough to mess with her again
anyway, this Filly turned in a spectacular performance winning by more than 18 lengths and earning the top Beyer for all 3 year olds of 110 at the G1 mile at Belmont
she was only .31 off the track record for a mile at Belmont which is astonishing
Baffert may be prepping her for the Oaks - the question of course being can she handle longer distances
it's very exciting to see a filly who is this fast although I wish she wasn't a Baffert horse..................you can't have everything
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 25th, 2020 at 4:29:04 PM
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I usually don't bet quarter horses but I did today - the Rudioso Downs quarter horse Derby
it was fun to see that raw speed
they just bolt out of the gate as fast as they can - all of them - and as fast as they can the whole race - 400 yards
what a trip
4 fillies and 6 colts in the race on a muddy track
I don't know a lot about quarter horse racing but I'm thinking that males don't have an advantage as they do in thoroughbred racing
it was fun to see that raw speed
they just bolt out of the gate as fast as they can - all of them - and as fast as they can the whole race - 400 yards
what a trip
4 fillies and 6 colts in the race on a muddy track
I don't know a lot about quarter horse racing but I'm thinking that males don't have an advantage as they do in thoroughbred racing
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 26th, 2020 at 5:31:46 AM
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very entertaining
American Pharoah filly Reframe wins a 2 year old race in Japan despite:
𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰 𝘧𝘢𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘭...........................................................𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦
American Pharoah filly Reframe wins a 2 year old race in Japan despite:
𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘰 𝘧𝘢𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘭...........................................................𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 26th, 2020 at 1:05:07 PM
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Crazy. She was determined to go where she wanted.
You can see the cameramen behind the outer rail back off quickly as she passes by near the finish.
You can see the cameramen behind the outer rail back off quickly as she passes by near the finish.
August 8th, 2020 at 4:10:25 AM
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♪ ♫
12 horses in the field
not an easy call by any means
12 horses in the field
not an easy call by any means
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 22nd, 2020 at 2:02:55 PM
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tonight at Delta Downs, race 10, is a quarter horse stakes with a purse of $1 million - for 2 year olds - 350 yards
this is a really fun race for me to bet and watch as I try to learn more about quarter horse racing
on Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 7, Ruidoso Downs will feature the richest Quarter horse race in the world with a purse worth $3 million - the All American Futurity
this is a really fun race for me to bet and watch as I try to learn more about quarter horse racing
on Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 7, Ruidoso Downs will feature the richest Quarter horse race in the world with a purse worth $3 million - the All American Futurity
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
December 25th, 2020 at 2:47:43 AM
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........................
going to get down on Nashville in some way in the exciting Malibu Saturday
as long as his price isn't crushed down too much
might be a super horse - set the track record for Keeneland for 6 in his 3rd start even though he geared down late
now he's got to go 7
he's the only horse in the field w/o graded stakes experience
all the others have been in G1 races
that might help his odds
M/L - 6/5- I would guess he won't be odds on
going to get down on Nashville in some way in the exciting Malibu Saturday
as long as his price isn't crushed down too much
might be a super horse - set the track record for Keeneland for 6 in his 3rd start even though he geared down late
now he's got to go 7
he's the only horse in the field w/o graded stakes experience
all the others have been in G1 races
that might help his odds
M/L - 6/5- I would guess he won't be odds on
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
December 25th, 2020 at 7:04:10 AM
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Charlatan for me. Always like betting a horse in the Malibu has won a stakes at 2 turns like he did in the Arkansas Derby. Good luck to both of us!
December 25th, 2020 at 9:18:47 AM
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I will do -6-1 and back up with 2-1-6.
December 26th, 2020 at 4:00:44 PM
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Quote: JohnzimboCharlatan for me. Always like betting a horse in the Malibu has won a stakes at 2 turns like he did in the Arkansas Derby. Good luck to both of us!
good call
I knew Nash might fade with all the G1 horses trying to run him down - but I bet with my heart not my head - wanted to see a newcomer sensation beat the veterans
knowing that I might be wrong at least I bet small
enjoy your win!!!
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 4th, 2021 at 3:39:19 AM
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I love racing, but it's impossible not to sometimes get disgusted with the sport
this news story from yesterday is referring to the fact that there have for long been accusations that jockeys have used electrical devices, known as buzzers, to deliver a shocking jolt to the horse to make him run faster
there is no doubt in my mind that this is true
the story is about a suspect - an assistant starter - who they believed was slipping these devices to the jocks - who refused to allow his vehicle to be searched
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/search-me-penn-national-assistant-starters-license-revoked/
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I love racing, but it's impossible not to sometimes get disgusted with the sport
this news story from yesterday is referring to the fact that there have for long been accusations that jockeys have used electrical devices, known as buzzers, to deliver a shocking jolt to the horse to make him run faster
there is no doubt in my mind that this is true
the story is about a suspect - an assistant starter - who they believed was slipping these devices to the jocks - who refused to allow his vehicle to be searched
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/search-me-penn-national-assistant-starters-license-revoked/
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 4th, 2021 at 5:00:24 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.......................
I love racing, but it's impossible not to sometimes get disgusted with the sport
this news story from yesterday is referring to the fact that there have for long been accusations that jockeys have used electrical devices, known as buzzers, to deliver a shocking jolt to the horse to make him run faster
there is no doubt in my mind that this is true
the story is about a suspect - an assistant starter - who they believed was slipping these devices to the jocks - who refused to allow his vehicle to be searched
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/search-me-penn-national-assistant-starters-license-revoked/
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But correct me if I’m wrong...buzzers may be illegal, but you are permitted to cause pain by whipping the horse as hard as you can?
February 4th, 2021 at 5:46:15 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOBut correct me if I’m wrong...buzzers may be illegal, but you are permitted to cause pain by whipping the horse as hard as you can?
yes, but CA has just issued more restrictive whipping regulations (see link)
many jocks will say that whipping does not really hurt the horse
might want to consider that jocks weigh about 110 pounds and thoroughbreds weigh about 1,000 pounds
so does it hurt the horse? I would say maybe a little, but not much
it is much more hurtful to me to watch harness racing where the driver has a much longer, heavier whip, and he is able to get much more leverage with his arm action - and when it hits the horse it makes a horrible sound - because of this I'll never patronize harness racing again
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/amended-crop-rule-to-take-effect-oct-1-in-california/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 7th, 2021 at 1:28:42 AM
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this is pretty shocking news to me:
NYRA ( the New York Racing Association) has just issued new rules that will exclude players (usually syndicates) using CAW (computer assisted wagering) from betting on their "Pick 6"
these syndicates are winning so often and so much that they are greatly reducing the payouts for ordinary players
they have previously outlawed the syndicates from making bets on their "Empire Six", the "Late Pick 5", and the "Cross Country Pick 5" wagers
everybody is now waiting for the other shoe to drop
will NYRA ban them from other pools and will other tracks follow?
the answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind - the answer is blowin' in the wind
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-excludes-computer-players-from-pick-six-pool/
this is pretty shocking news to me:
NYRA ( the New York Racing Association) has just issued new rules that will exclude players (usually syndicates) using CAW (computer assisted wagering) from betting on their "Pick 6"
these syndicates are winning so often and so much that they are greatly reducing the payouts for ordinary players
they have previously outlawed the syndicates from making bets on their "Empire Six", the "Late Pick 5", and the "Cross Country Pick 5" wagers
everybody is now waiting for the other shoe to drop
will NYRA ban them from other pools and will other tracks follow?
the answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind - the answer is blowin' in the wind
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-excludes-computer-players-from-pick-six-pool/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 7th, 2021 at 4:19:30 AM
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. Help me out here. I’m sitting with my computer (cell phone!) at Belmont. It says 1-2-3-4-5-6 should be 1000-1, but is presently paying 3,000-1. So I bet it. How does the NYRA stop me from walking up to a windows and placing the bet?Quote: lilredrooster.............................
this is pretty shocking news to me:
NYRA ( the New York Racing Association) has just issued new rules that will exclude players (usually syndicates) using CAW (computer assisted wagering) from betting on their "Pick 6"
these syndicates are winning so often and so much that they are greatly reducing the payouts for ordinary players
they have previously outlawed the syndicates from making bets on their "Empire Six", the "Late Pick 5", and the "Cross Country Pick 5" wagers
everybody is now waiting for the other shoe to drop
will NYRA ban them from other pools and will other tracks follow?
the answer my friend, is blowin' in the wind - the answer is blowin' in the wind
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-excludes-computer-players-from-pick-six-pool/
February 7th, 2021 at 5:19:39 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO. Help me out here. I’m sitting with my computer (cell phone!) at Belmont. It says 1-2-3-4-5-6 should be 1000-1, but is presently paying 3,000-1. So I bet it. How does the NYRA stop me from walking up to a windows and placing the bet?
first of all - let me qualify myself - I'm not an expert on this stuff
having said that - first, you were giving me an impossible hypothetical - because neither Belmont or any other tracks post odds estimates for the Pick 6 wager
people making these types of bets make estimates of the payoffs based on the win odds - and they possibly also use the exacta probables as a base from which to calculate
their estimates can sometimes be way off - but for the pros that's okay - because sometimes it will pay less than they estimated but sometimes it will pay more - not knowing exactly doesn't really hurt them - again, because they're making thousands and thousands of bets in combinations
next - when they say computer wagering they don't mean Joe Blow making a wager from his desktop or cell
they are talking about a gigantic number of combinations of bets, and huge money coming from one source
or possibly more than one - the key thing is the gigantic number of combinations and amount of money all coming from a small number of sources
and they are coming in lightning fast because that is what CAW (computer assisted wagering) is all about
that is how they know that it is syndicate betting
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 7, 2021
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 21st, 2021 at 2:46:26 AM
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𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆
this is a strategy I'm using more and more in my betting
it means betting more than one horse to win - usually 3 or 4
I use it to bet against a fave when I think he is weak
an invalid criticism of this strategy is that if you bet on 4 horses to win you must lose at least 3 of your bets
obviously you will win more often
the player who bets $100 on one number at roulette has the exact same long run expectation as a player who makes 20 $5 bets
yes, I know that horse racing is not roulette - it doesn't matter - the same principle applies
the benefit of this strategy is that compared to betting one horse to win at 5/1 - if you consider your dutched bet as one bet - you have greatly reduced variance
if a punter likes betting horses who are 5/1 and he can score about one in 5 times - if he has a bad run he can easily lose 35 or 40 times in a row - that's rough - although some can sit thru that - I can't
here is an example of dutching at this race at Aqueduct if I thought the #1 horse at 3/5 is weak and I want to bet against him - (and BTW NYRA tracks have a slightly lower takeout than most other tracks making it a very good track to do this)
spreading - dutching - $100 this way:
$45 on the #4 at 3.40/1...............payout if wins......$198.............net profit............$98
$30 on the #2 at 4.70/1................payout if wins......$171............net profit............$71
$25 on the #3 at 5.50/1.................payout if wins ...$162.50........net profit..........$62.50
𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆
this is a strategy I'm using more and more in my betting
it means betting more than one horse to win - usually 3 or 4
I use it to bet against a fave when I think he is weak
an invalid criticism of this strategy is that if you bet on 4 horses to win you must lose at least 3 of your bets
obviously you will win more often
the player who bets $100 on one number at roulette has the exact same long run expectation as a player who makes 20 $5 bets
yes, I know that horse racing is not roulette - it doesn't matter - the same principle applies
the benefit of this strategy is that compared to betting one horse to win at 5/1 - if you consider your dutched bet as one bet - you have greatly reduced variance
if a punter likes betting horses who are 5/1 and he can score about one in 5 times - if he has a bad run he can easily lose 35 or 40 times in a row - that's rough - although some can sit thru that - I can't
here is an example of dutching at this race at Aqueduct if I thought the #1 horse at 3/5 is weak and I want to bet against him - (and BTW NYRA tracks have a slightly lower takeout than most other tracks making it a very good track to do this)
spreading - dutching - $100 this way:
$45 on the #4 at 3.40/1...............payout if wins......$198.............net profit............$98
$30 on the #2 at 4.70/1................payout if wins......$171............net profit............$71
$25 on the #3 at 5.50/1.................payout if wins ...$162.50........net profit..........$62.50
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 21st, 2021 at 10:45:55 AM
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I suggest you to pick a horse to bet on place or show. better return.Quote: lilredrooster............................
𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆
this is a strategy I'm using more and more in my betting
it means betting more than one horse to win - usually 3 or 4
I use it to bet against a fave when I think he is weak
an invalid criticism of this strategy is that if you bet on 4 horses to win you must lose at least 3 of your bets
obviously you will win more often
the player who bets $100 on one number at roulette has the exact same long run expectation as a player who makes 20 $5 bets
yes, I know that horse racing is not roulette - it doesn't matter - the same principle applies
the benefit of this strategy is that compared to betting one horse to win at 5/1 - if you consider your dutched bet as one bet - you have greatly reduced variance
if a punter likes betting horses who are 5/1 and he can score about one in 5 times - if he has a bad run he can easily lose 35 or 40 times in a row - that's rough - although some can sit thru that - I can't
here is an example of dutching at this race at Aqueduct if I thought the #1 horse at 3/5 is weak and I want to bet against him - (and BTW NYRA tracks have a slightly lower takeout than most other tracks making it a very good track to do this)
spreading - dutching - $100 this way:
$45 on the #4 at 3.40/1...............payout if wins......$198.............net profit............$98
$30 on the #2 at 4.70/1................payout if wins......$171............net profit............$71
$25 on the #3 at 5.50/1.................payout if wins ...$162.50........net profit..........$62.50
February 21st, 2021 at 11:15:52 AM
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Quote: speedycrapsuggest you to pick a horse to bet on place or show. 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧.
a statement like that just can't stand
it would require an enormous amount of data to prove that as well as an enormous amount of analysis
I'm not willing to do that and neither are you
what I stated represents my opinion that what I posted can be an effective strategy
you have a different opinion
fair enough
but I suggest you not make statements that cannot be backed up with data
if your show horse or place horse comes with the 3/5 fave the payouts going to shrink dramatically on a 4/1 horse because the fave got so much of the show and place pool that there's not a lot left in the pool(s) to pay on the other horse(s)
as you can see in the example shown the #2 at 4.70/1 paid only $2.40 to show
the #4 at 3.40/1 paid only $2.30 to show
because they came with the 3/5 fave -
also, you can only make a raw guess at what a place and show payout will actually be
win bets are also an estimate because the odds can change late after you've made your bet
𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 21, 2021
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:00:58 AM
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Dear Lilredrooster:
Please, take it easy. That statement was just an expression. I like to bet on place/show because I am not good at picking the winner. Also, I like to collect my hard earned money on every bet. Thanks.
Regards
Speedy
Please, take it easy. That statement was just an expression. I like to bet on place/show because I am not good at picking the winner. Also, I like to collect my hard earned money on every bet. Thanks.
Regards
Speedy
March 5th, 2021 at 4:41:20 AM
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my favorite strategy is to bet on a horse that has received an exceptional comment in his last race which was a stakes event
this is a horse who responds when asked - not a dullard
chart writers are stingy in their praise of horses
exceptional comments include "closed fast, closed with a rush, surged, going away, with authority, good energy, wore down rivals, came flying late"
then I will watch the replay to verify the comment - although chart writers are usually very good
I then need to make sure the horse is not stepping up into tougher competition and is not overmatched
finally, I need to see that he's not bet down unrealistically to the point where the bet is not worthwhile
of course, many others see these comments and they can affect the odds
but if it's a large field and/or the competition is keen a bettor can fairly often get decent odds on such a horse
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my favorite strategy is to bet on a horse that has received an exceptional comment in his last race which was a stakes event
this is a horse who responds when asked - not a dullard
chart writers are stingy in their praise of horses
exceptional comments include "closed fast, closed with a rush, surged, going away, with authority, good energy, wore down rivals, came flying late"
then I will watch the replay to verify the comment - although chart writers are usually very good
I then need to make sure the horse is not stepping up into tougher competition and is not overmatched
finally, I need to see that he's not bet down unrealistically to the point where the bet is not worthwhile
of course, many others see these comments and they can affect the odds
but if it's a large field and/or the competition is keen a bettor can fairly often get decent odds on such a horse
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 5, 2021
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
March 5th, 2021 at 8:43:56 AM
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I'm reading an early 20th Century dime novel about the rivalry between Domino and Henry of Navarre, which seems to have been the first great racing rivalry.
Domino was considered the fastest horse to ever run at this point, but Henry upset him in the Belmont which set up the most anticipated race in American history- a match race between the two. According to the story, Domino leads most of the race but Henry passed him at the top of the stretch with Domino pulling up at the last moment to finish in a dead heat.
Three weeks later, Henry beat Domino in a race where two other horses appeared to conspire to box Domino in.
Domino retired to stud, but produced only twenty horses before he died under mysterious circumstances. His foals had a spectacular record and many of today's champions can be traced back to him. Two triple Crown winners are direct descendants of Domino.
Henry of Navarre proved to be a dud at stud for horse races and eventually was gifted to the US Army where he was able to produce hundreds of future US Calvary.
Among the various characters in the book are a father and son named Keene. I'm going to guess they are the Keene's in Keeneland.
Domino was considered the fastest horse to ever run at this point, but Henry upset him in the Belmont which set up the most anticipated race in American history- a match race between the two. According to the story, Domino leads most of the race but Henry passed him at the top of the stretch with Domino pulling up at the last moment to finish in a dead heat.
Three weeks later, Henry beat Domino in a race where two other horses appeared to conspire to box Domino in.
Domino retired to stud, but produced only twenty horses before he died under mysterious circumstances. His foals had a spectacular record and many of today's champions can be traced back to him. Two triple Crown winners are direct descendants of Domino.
Henry of Navarre proved to be a dud at stud for horse races and eventually was gifted to the US Army where he was able to produce hundreds of future US Calvary.
Among the various characters in the book are a father and son named Keene. I'm going to guess they are the Keene's in Keeneland.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
March 5th, 2021 at 9:10:38 AM
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Quote: billryanI'm reading an early 20th Century dime novel about the rivalry between Domino and Henry of Navarre, which seems to have been the first great racing rivalry.
Domino was considered the fastest horse to ever run at this point, but Henry upset him in the Belmont which set up the most anticipated race in American history- a match race between the two. According to the story, Domino leads most of the race but Henry passed him at the top of the stretch with Domino pulling up at the last moment to finish in a dead heat.
Three weeks later, Henry beat Domino in a race where two other horses appeared to conspire to box Domino in.
Domino retired to stud, but produced only twenty horses before he died under mysterious circumstances. His foals had a spectacular record and many of today's champions can be traced back to him. Two triple Crown winners are direct descendants of Domino.
Henry of Navarre proved to be a dud at stud for horse races and eventually was gifted to the US Army where he was able to produce hundreds of future US Calvary.
Among the various characters in the book are a father and son named Keene. I'm going to guess they are the Keene's in Keeneland.
thanks for that - that was very interesting - I didn't know about that race
I'm sure you know about the famous match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral that was made into a book and a movie
I searched a little about your story and found this - an actual pic of the fans and the race and the 2 horses - although it's not all that clear - still interesting - it looks like it was a sloppy track - they're throwing back a lot of water
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
March 5th, 2021 at 9:52:46 AM
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It's a dime novel so I imagine it plays fast and loose with the facts.
Doing just a bit of research, it was amazing how many racing legends came from Domino.
War Admiral, Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Bold Ruler,Zenyatta, etc, etc.
Doing just a bit of research, it was amazing how many racing legends came from Domino.
War Admiral, Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Bold Ruler,Zenyatta, etc, etc.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
March 5th, 2021 at 10:43:57 AM
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I recently watched the movie Ruffian. Movie was ok, but her story is quite compelling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruffian_(film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruffian_(horse)
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=430198®istry=T&rbt=TB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruffian_(film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruffian_(horse)
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=430198®istry=T&rbt=TB
