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1BB
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March 3rd, 2015 at 3:21:07 AM permalink
I was joking about the overuse of the word "due". The dealer is due for a blackjack, the player is due for a blackjack, the jackpot is due to hit, my keno number is due, the machine is due to hit. Math be darned, something is always due in the minds of ever hopeful players.

The possibility of of counting this side bet was brought up as it should be with any new change. We know that blackjacks are expected as the count rises but is it enough for me to cough up five bucks? That's 20% of my base bet many times.

Players might benefit by knowing the true cost of the bet. I play heads up whenever I can with very fast dealers. Very fast. Fast enough to get in 200 hands an hour. If I always play the side bet that's $1000 an hour. Statistically, the dealer should get nine blackjacks. That would, at the very least, return $225 to me. What about the other $775? How much should I expect to get back on average from a variety of winning hands?

This bet is it's own best advertiser. All it takes is a couple of hits and the players are hooked. It's fun to play. The dealers and pits are hyping it, shamelessly gushing about how great it is. I have to wonder where all this unbridled enthusiasm was when Free Bet was installed. What a difference a year makes.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
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March 4th, 2015 at 8:05:24 AM permalink
Mohegan Sun crews are finishing up the installs in the Casino of the Wind this morning and have begun the first high limit pit, the one next to Bow & Arrow bar. The progressive passed $70,000 this morning. I'm told that 75 cents out of every $5 bet goes to the progressive jackpot.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Deucekies
Deucekies
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
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March 4th, 2015 at 9:33:35 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Mohegan Sun crews are finishing up the installs in the Casino of the Wind this morning and have begun the first high limit pit, the one next to Bow & Arrow bar. The progressive passed $70,000 this morning. I'm told that 75 cents out of every $5 bet goes to the progressive jackpot.


15% is about right for a progressive where the majority of payouts come from the tray.

I guess if counting becomes an issue, they could start taking all payouts from the jackpot, and start putting 60-75% up.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
miplet
miplet
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March 6th, 2015 at 7:42:29 AM permalink
I finished my spreadsheet. My usual disclaimer about brainos and/or typos. This spreadsheet is very messy. This has a break even point of $831849.54

HandPayoutFreqProbReturn
RF Diam 100%50,000.003,888 0.0000016732 0.083660623245
RF 10%5,000.0011,664 0.0000050196 0.025098186974
Trips7501,165,824 0.0005017159 0.376286892108
Straight500979,776 0.0004216495 0.210824770578
Flush4001,614,528 0.0006948170 0.277926787504
2 Pair3001,204,416 0.0005183240 0.155497211739
Same Color10011,581,056 0.0049839422 0.498394219547
Pair7530,792,960 0.0132518427 0.993888204154
Dealer BJ2562,995,968 0.0271105038 0.677762595785
Lose02,213,323,740 0.9525105120 0.000000000000
Totals2,323,673,8203.299339491633


Direct link on my website: super4progressive.xlsb
Editable google doc: here
It’s the power of the CheesePuff
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 6th, 2015 at 9:17:12 AM permalink
I think it's an excellent side bet and would give it a try at my place if everything fell together. I would however adjust the pay table to drop to the house edge to about 20-25%. Probably reducing the RF payouts and bumping up one of the lower level payments a little.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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March 6th, 2015 at 9:59:49 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

I finished my spreadsheet. ...

Great work miplet, thanks for the effort. However, as previously pointed out in this thread the initial bet is collected before the deal and not returned, so the payout for non-RF wins should be decreased by $5.

Hmmm... If you don't play the progressive and someone hits an RF payout, I wonder if you have to sit there mid-hand until the payout is made. You know it's going to take a while.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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March 6th, 2015 at 10:06:08 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I think it's an excellent side bet and would give it a try at my place if everything fell together. I would however adjust the pay table to drop to the house edge to about 20-25%. Probably reducing the RF payouts and bumping up one of the lower level payments a little.

I think the angle is to offer the high jackpot and the average player will accept the terrible odds in the vein of Powerball strategy. Like all side bets, this one isn't aimed at the audience of this forum. IMHO
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
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March 6th, 2015 at 11:06:21 AM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

Great work miplet, thanks for the effort. However, as previously pointed out in this thread the initial bet is collected before the deal and not returned, so the payout for non-RF wins should be decreased by $5.

Hmmm... If you don't play the progressive and someone hits an RF payout, I wonder if you have to sit there mid-hand until the payout is made. You know it's going to take a while.



Wouldn't they have to verify the decks, that is count 312 cards? What if one or two were missing?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
racquet
racquet
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
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March 7th, 2015 at 1:13:02 PM permalink
So how do they apply the progressive? I saw the odometer roll over 95K last night, and another poster said it topped 100K today. But how do they know in real time the total bet on the game, so as to roll the progressive in relation to that, or do they just spin the thing at a fixed rate from the starting $50K? Dealers were often putting cards on top of the sensor, causing the light to come on, all night last night, and honestly I never saw anyone, not even one, bet the silly thing.

Can we push the progressive by repeatedly tapping the red spot in between hands? They wouldn't be so stupid, those same folks who invented "Triple Down", would they?

As far as training is concerned, I saw floors last Friday explaining it to relief dealers as they came onto the table, and one of them told me that "as usual", they had not told anyone about it until they walked onto the floor and saw it. But that could just be the usual employee griping that goes on everywhere.

There seems to be more drinking of the KoolAid by the dealers this time than with FreeBet, but it's not as much of an interruption of their normal routine as FreeBet was, and it's a simpler game to manage since it only comes into play with a dealer blackjack.
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March 7th, 2015 at 1:31:35 PM permalink
Quote: racquet

So how do they apply the progressive? I saw the odometer roll over 95K last night, and another poster said it topped 100K today. But how do they know in real time the total bet on the game, so as to roll the progressive in relation to that, or do they just spin the thing at a fixed rate from the starting $50K? Dealers were often putting cards on top of the sensor, causing the light to come on, all night last night, and honestly I never saw anyone, not even one, bet the silly thing.

Can we push the progressive by repeatedly tapping the red spot in between hands? They wouldn't be so stupid, those same folks who invented "Triple Down", would they?

As far as training is concerned, I saw floors last Friday explaining it to relief dealers as they came onto the table, and one of them told me that "as usual", they had not told anyone about it until they walked onto the floor and saw it. But that could just be the usual employee griping that goes on everywhere.

There seems to be more drinking of the KoolAid by the dealers this time than with FreeBet, but it's not as much of an interruption of their normal routine as FreeBet was, and it's a simpler game to manage since it only comes into play with a dealer blackjack.



The progressive started at $50,000 and gets reset there when it hits. The royal flush in the other three suits pays 10% of the progressive so that would come off the meter? All the tables are connected. If no one at your table is playing, the total can still increase.

You can touch the sensors all you want. It won't make a difference because the dealer locks in the bets by using the device in the tray. It must have a name but I'll be darned if I know. Anybody? Barring a malfunction there should be no mistakes on who played the bet and who didn't.

They are really pushing this game. Unlike the unfortunate circumstances with Free Bet, bad mouthing this game by employees will not be tolerated.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi

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