Betting the 2016 Election
Poll
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34 members have voted
Dem Candidate
Clinton 1/14
Sanders 13/2
Kerry 66/1
OMalley 66/1
Bunch of others 100/1+
Rep Candidate
Rubio 13/8
Trump 9/4
Cruz 5/2
Bush 10/1
Christie 14/1
Carson 50/1
Romney 50/1
Bunch of others 100/1+
President
Clinton 4/6
Trump 4/1
Rubio 5/1
Cruz 9/1
Bush 20/1
Sanders 25/1
Christie 28/1
Bloomberg 33/1
Carson 66/1
Bunch of others 100/1+
Quote: WizardI'm afraid as a relatively new member, the most credit I can extend is $20. I'll book the full $100 if you pay in advance.
You can hold my 100 if you want. I've been to a few meetups and did the Atelophobia with you. I'm definitely not going to welch. I live downtown, so would probably be easy to meet up.
Have had a number of transactions with others on this site with no problems.
Quote: MaxPenYou can hold my 100 if you want. I've been to a few meetups and did the Atelophobia with you. I'm definitely not going to welch. I live downtown, so would probably be easy to meet up.
Have had a number of transactions with others on this site with no problems.
Sorry, I forgot that about Atelophobia. Your credit is good with me. Please confirm you are betting $100 against me at +350 on Donald Trump to be the nominee of the Republican Party.
Quote: WizardSorry, I forgot that about Atelophobia. Your credit is good with me. Please confirm you are betting $100 against me at +350 on Donald Trump to be the nominee of the Republican Party.
Confirmed. Thanks and good luck.
Quote: MaxPenConfirmed. Thanks and good luck.
Thank you. I can't say "good luck" in good conscience, but thank you for the bet.
Clinton -200
Trump +333
Cruz +1400
Sanders +1400
Kasich +2200
Rubio +4000
Biden +4000
Ryan +6600
Romney +10000
of winning the general when the math says
he now has zero chance. He's only won 2
states. And hasn't Betfair given Trump the
win and stopped taking bets and paid off
all the wagers already?
I believe one of the online bookmakers did pay out already though.
Quote: AussieI believe one of the online bookmakers did pay out already though.
I don't know why they would when it could easily go to a brokered convention where he'll lose.
Quote: WizardI don't know why they would when it could easily go to a brokered convention where he'll lose.
Because they only had about $160,000 to pay out and they got a lot of national news exposure from it. With Trump still the favorite they probably thought the free marketing was worth more than their exposure.
Quote: AussieBetfair is a betting exchange. They don't take bets, they match bets between individuals. There is still and active market for the republican nomination. Trump currently 1.44 to back, 1.45 to lay (decimal odds).
I believe one of the online bookmakers did pay out already though.
It was the Irish company that has the word
'paddy' in it.
'Paddy Power Betfair Plc, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, is paying out 120,000 euros ($130,000) on Donald Trump winning the U.S. Republican presidential nomination.'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/bookmaker-pays-out-early-on-trump-winning-republican-nomination
Quote: WizardI don't know why they would when it could easily go to a brokered convention where he'll lose.
They do this from time to time for marketing reasons and it's unlikely they would be holding much money on a market like this anyway. I wouldn't believe the 130k euro figure though, that's almost certainly a gross exaggeration. Again, for marketing reasons.
They're very rarely wrong but it's not unheard of. About 10 years ago bookmakers paid out on Arsenal winning the English premier league soccer maybe 10 games before the end only for them to fall in a heap with Manchester United winning it. Something like that would have actually cost them a lot of money as it would have been a very popular betting market.
Donald Trump is Republican Nominee -260 (no = +220)
Presidential Nominee Brokered - Republican National Convention: Only one official ballot for nominee -245 (more than one +175)
Hillary Clinton is Democratic Nominee -1200
Republican wins Presidential Election +185 (Democrat wins -225)
Republicans maintain Senate majority -105 (Republicans no longer Senate majority -135)
Quote: iamnomadWish I could parlay 'em.
Why do you think they are correlated?
Quote: WizardWhy do you think they are correlated?
Kasich has a very strong favorable/unfavorable rating among GOP voters. Trump started running ads Wednesday nite attacking him, but all he does is rehash old arguments that won't wash with GOP voters. I think what he's hoping for is to continue to move some democrats and independents to vote for him Tuesday--in Ohio we have basically an open primary. We've also been voting for nearly a month in this state thru a process that allows anyone to cast their ballot early for any reason. It's a system that seems to favor the incumbent (or better known) candidate, in this case Kasich. Many people already voted before seeing Trump's ads.
But here's the kicker that aids Hillary: If we didn't have Trump running on the GOP side, many disaffected Dems who are crossing party lines to vote for him would most likely vote for the Democrat anti-establishment candidate: Bernie. So she gets helped by them leaving the Dem side, but their voting Republican won't be enough to help Trump beat a popular GOP governor in a GOP primary. Not that Hillary needs much help. She's well ahead in the polls, and has kept about the same margin for the last month or two. Primaries can be volatile, but Ohio's early voting makes them less so. Nonetheless, nothing is certain. That's why they count the votes.
Quote: iamnomadKasich has a very strong favorable/unfavorable rating among GOP voters....
Very interesting and well-done analysis.
My only out has Kasich to win Ohio at -260, which I assume you think it too expensive.
Hilary is -230. What is your opinion of that? I hate to lay it seeing that she just lost neighboring Michigan.
BTW: Here is a link to the Bet Fair odds to be next president.
Kasich at -260? No way! Heritage has him at -145 tonight which would be about my limit.
Anybody I'm friends with looking to take the other side?
Quote: WizardBetfair has Hillary at 1.57 for 1. To convert that to the American format, it equals -175. I'm looking to get that price, but Betfair doesn't take US players.
Anybody I'm friends with looking to take the other side?
Do they refuse US customers altogether or just stop you depositing/placing a bet/logging in? You will be able to get around the placing a bet/logging in by using a VPN. As for joining and depositing could you try registering with a foreign address and depositing with a foreign bank account?
Clinton: -370
Trump: +330
If we split the difference, it would suggest Trump has a 22% chance of winning. This is down from 30% the last time I checked about two weeks ago.
Quote: ArmenIf you are interested in a good bet, please visit [redacted by management].
Goodbye.
Clinton -292
Field +252
which gives Clinton approximately a 72% chance.
Notably, this means you can bet Clinton -292 at Pinnacle and Trump +330 at Betfair. The risk is that someone besides the two of them wins, so you'll have to do your own assessment of how likely that is. And as always, there is counterparty risk that you could get stiffed, though I think both those places are quite reliable and safe.
I also don't know how much you can get down at +330 on Betfair. Pinnacle's limits are generally quite high, but they don't take US customers.
Ah, we were all so young and innocent once.
I've just checked and I think at 1.37 it's -270 (270 gets back 370) rather than -370. The book value for a good market on betfair is usually very close to 100. This gives the percentages of 73%/23%/4% others.Quote: Wizard...BetFair... Clinton: -370 Trump: +330...
Using Ladbrokes odds (who tend to give fairer prices on favourites than long shots, so these calculations would underestimate fav % and overestimate outsiders' %) have
Clinton -300 (1/3) 68% [BF:-270]
Trump +250 (5/2) 26% [BF:+330]
Sanders 33/1 3% [BF:+60oo]
Biden 50/1 2% [BF:+80oo]
others 100/1 and higher [BF:+230oo]
Note betfair odds are trading prices with other players. You then have to pay commission on your winnings. So it is false to say you could get "-270". After (say) 5% commission you'd get back $135.15 or -285.
Quote: UCivanShouldn't Trump be paid 8000 to 1? Like a Straight Flush in High Card Flush
My, how time flies
Quote: charliepatrickI've just checked and I think at 1.37 it's -270 (270 gets back 370) rather than -370. The book value for a good market on betfair is usually very close to 100. This gives the percentages of 73%/23%/4% others.
You're right. Thank you for the correction. I'm always forgetting how their system works.
Right now Clinton shows 1.37. That means a $1 bet would get back $1.37 if Clinton wins, which includes the original wager. Here is how to convert the Betfair odds to the American format. Let's say total amount you get back on a bet is x. Then:
If x>=2, then 100*(x-1)
If x<2, then -100/(x-1)
Let's look at the winning party, because other people besides Clinton and Trump could still win.
Democrats: 1.35
Republicans: 3.8
That converts to:
Democrats: -100/(1.35-1) = -286
Republicans: 100*(3.8-1) = +280
Thanks also for the reminder on the commission, which according to your example applies only to the actual win and not the part of it that is your original wager.
Clinton: 72.7%
Trump: 24.8%
Other: 2.5%
Quote: WizardTime for an update. Here are the odds according to BetFair as of 10/5/16:
Clinton: 72.7%
Trump: 24.8%
Other: 2.5%
Is this the same bookmaker that had leave at less than 10% for the Brexit vote?
I see some future headlines, " How did the bookmakers get U.S. Presidential election so wrong?"
Helmut Norpoth predicted Trump over Clinton by 9 points all the way back in February. His model has been 96% Accurate for the past 100+ years. Missed once in 1960.
Pollsters are desperately trying to sell the possibility of a Clinton victory. Probably will be closer than that due to certain planned fixes, but you can't manipulate a landslide. ;-)
Quote: MaxPenExpecting to see a large swing in those numbers 24 hours prior to Election Day.
Helmut Norpoth predicted Trump over Clinton by 9 points all the way back in February. His model has been 96% Accurate for the past 100+ years. Missed once in 1960.
Pollsters are desperately trying to sell the possibility of a Clinton victory. Probably will be closer than that due to certain planned fixes, but you can't manipulate a landslide. ;-)
Yes, you can manipulate a landslide. In at least 2 ways:
1. control the software used by voting machines
2. ask your followers to use force to keep other people from voting.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. Here are the odds according to BetFair as of 10/5/16:
Clinton: 72.7%
Trump: 24.8%
Other: 2.5%
Can you bet against these specific candidates? I would like to bet against 'other'. Looks like fair odds would be laying 40-1. Can you make that bet, obviously giving the house better odds, so laying 45-1 or so?
Quote: MaxPenHelmut Norpoth predicted Trump over Clinton by 9 points all the way back in February. His model has been 96% Accurate for the past 100+ years. Missed once in 1960.
Pollsters are desperately trying to sell the possibility of a Clinton victory. Probably will be closer than that due to certain planned fixes, but you can't manipulate a landslide. ;-)
You should be betting everything you can then on Trump. You can currently get about 3 to 1. I wish I could quadruple my money on election day.
Quote: SOOPOOCan you bet against these specific candidates? I would like to bet against 'other'. Looks like fair odds would be laying 40-1. Can you make that bet, obviously giving the house better odds, so laying 45-1 or so?
You can bet against them individually but you can't bet for or against the field, which I think would make a good bet. Will you give me 50 to 1 on the field?
Quote: WizardYou can bet against them individually but you can't bet for or against the field, which I think would make a good bet. Will you give me 50 to 1 on the field?
As long as you agree to pay me with a $2 bill. I save the ones you pay me with...... My $100 against your $2. I don't think it is a bed bet for you by the way.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. Here are the odds according to BetFair as of 10/5/16:
Clinton: 72.7%
Trump: 24.8%
Other: 2.5%
After the "live mic" tape -- BefFair odds as of early 10/8/16:
Clinton: 75.4%
Trump: 21.1%
I never thought I would hear The Donald apologize for anything.
Quote: SOOPOOAs long as you agree to pay me with a $2 bill. I save the ones you pay me with...... My $100 against your $2. I don't think it is a bed bet for you by the way.
This bet is booked, correct?
Looks like an even better bet for you.... Other is up to 3.5%
Trump: 20.2%
Clinton: 76.0%
Quote: WizardTrump is dropping like a lead balloon. Several hours later:
Trump: 20.2%
Clinton: 76.0%
just about every bookie in the UK has Clinton odds shortening and Trump odds drifting
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Nate has Clinton at 81.8%
Quote: terapinedjust about every bookie in the UK has Clinton odds shortening and Trump odds drifting
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Nate has Clinton at 81.8%
Why do the English throw in so many superfluous u's everywhere, as in favourite?
Quote: beachbumbabsOK. $50 on Chris Christie at 14.5 to 1, please. Thank you!
I lost track of this thread and this bet. Acknowledging I lost. PayPal for $50 Mike?
I suppose it's not completely out the realm that Trump still drops out and somehow it's Christie by election day, but microscopic odds, so I'll pay.
Quote: iamnomadKasich has a very strong favorable/unfavorable rating among GOP voters. Trump started running ads Wednesday nite attacking him, but all he does is rehash old arguments that won't wash with GOP voters. I think what he's hoping for is to continue to move some democrats and independents to vote for him Tuesday--in Ohio we have basically an open primary. We've also been voting for nearly a month in this state thru a process that allows anyone to cast their ballot early for any reason. It's a system that seems to favor the incumbent (or better known) candidate, in this case Kasich. Many people already voted before seeing Trump's ads.
But here's the kicker that aids Hillary: If we didn't have Trump running on the GOP side, many disaffected Dems who are crossing party lines to vote for him would most likely vote for the Democrat anti-establishment candidate: Bernie. So she gets helped by them leaving the Dem side, but their voting Republican won't be enough to help Trump beat a popular GOP governor in a GOP primary. Not that Hillary needs much help. She's well ahead in the polls, and has kept about the same margin for the last month or two. Primaries can be volatile, but Ohio's early voting makes them less so. Nonetheless, nothing is certain. That's why they count the votes.
Great analysis in the primaries. Any thoughts for the general 1 month out?
Quote: SOOPOOThis bet is booked, correct?
Yes. If you feel the odds have moved, I'll let you back out. It might be better to text me so that there are no arguments about time lag. Agreed to pay with a $2 bill.
Quote: WizardTrump is dropping like a lead balloon. Several hours later:
Trump: 20.2%
Clinton: 76.0%
The lead balloon keeps sinking. Hours after debate 2:
Trump: 19.8%
Clinton: 78.4%
Quote: WizardThe lead balloon keeps sinking. Hours after debate 2:
Trump: 19.8%
Clinton: 78.4%
Hopefully, it gets below 10% for Trump. That will be right about where the Chance of England leaving was at for the BREXIT vote. I would be more impressed if you could provide evidence that these betting odds have any relevancy to outcomes politically related.
Quote: MaxPenHopefully, it gets below 10% for Trump. That will be right about where the Chance of England leaving was at for the BREXIT vote. I would be more impressed if you could provide evidence that these betting odds have any relevancy to outcomes politically related.
Journey: "Don't stop...belieeeeevin'..."
