Election Betting Odds
Quote: EvenBobQuote: WizardClinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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When did Trump call for an armed insurrection. Could you provide where Trump said that. In point of fact, the only people armed on July 6th were the police. No arms were confiscated because there were none, it was the first totally unarmed Insurrection in the history of the world. Which is ridiculous because you cannot have an insurrection without weapons.
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For those who don’t post at DT, Evenbob regularly discusses how he doesn’t watch the Jan. 6 Hearings.
If he did, he would know that his post is ludicrous and the insurrectionists brought tons of weapons that day.
Quote: WizardQuote: tuttigymTucker Carlson Show tonite has the video.
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EB already provided it.
I have a feeling Hilary was probably referring to the Electoral College, which Fox News, conveniently, clipped out. To that, assuming I'm right, I would say it was putting it too strongly to say the election was "stolen." However, it can't be compared to what Trump did. Clinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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Link us all to where Trump called for "an armed insurrection." I am sure the Jan. 6th committee would have that info and would have produced such along with an indictment for sedition. I am afraid your "sources" are feeding the political bias of all the extreme "left" conspiracy believers.
tuttigym
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RT: New: Steve Bannon said Dr. Anthony Fauci’s entire family is going to “suffer” and be "hunted" after the midterms on his War Room Podcast. Last year, Bannon said Fauci's head should be "placed on a pike" outside the White House. The 81 year old Dr. Fauci has hired security guards. Threatening Federal Officials is a federal offense punishable by up to 5 years in prison. Ron DeSantis also issued threats against Dr. Fauci. Thus far, the DOJ has failed to hold any Conservative 'thought leaders' accountable for their calls for violence:
Quote: ams288Quote: EvenBobQuote: WizardClinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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When did Trump call for an armed insurrection. Could you provide where Trump said that. In point of fact, the only people armed on July 6th were the police. No arms were confiscated because there were none, it was the first totally unarmed Insurrection in the history of the world. Which is ridiculous because you cannot have an insurrection without weapons.
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For those who don’t post at DT, Evenbob regularly discusses how he doesn’t watch the Jan. 6 Hearings.
If he did, he would know that his post is ludicrous and the insurrectionists brought tons of weapons that day.
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Funny, I did not see any video of confiscated weaponry by the FBI, Capitol Police, or DOJ. Perhaps you could furnish some photographic, video, or even transcript documentation of the "tons of weapons." I know that you want to be accurate and not be considered as one who might be misleading in your assessments.
tuttigym
Quote: WizardQuote: tuttigymTucker Carlson Show tonite has the video.
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EB already provided it.
I have a feeling Hilary was probably referring to the Electoral College, which Fox News, conveniently, clipped out. To that, assuming I'm right, I would say it was putting it too strongly to say the election was "stolen." However, it can't be compared to what Trump did. Clinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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I am sure Mrs. Clinton appreciates the pass kinda like the ones she gives to her spouse.
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeThe DOJ provides indictments after a grand jury decides to. The Jan. 6th Committee is just making a report to the public. They could refer Trump to the DOJ for criminal charges but insiders view that as too political instead of a matter of law. Trump should have been imprisoned when the classified documents were taken from Mar-A-Lago, among hundreds or thousands of other crimes he's committed. The DOJ seems to be totally beholden to Trump and will not indict. So, there will be no justice. The Jan. 6th Committee could send the Sergeant of Arms after Trump for evading a subpoena, but Democrats have been absolutely feckless on doing things like that. So why is Steve Bannon free to walk around after losing his criminal trial and getting a 4 month sentence and a paltry fine compared to what was asked for? A Trump appointed judge bends the rules or something. There is a coming realization that no jury will convict Trump because they are Trump supporters, not to mention all the armed militia out there ready to intimidate anybody involved including judges, prosecutors, DA's, & Governors (who could provide pardons).
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RT: New: Steve Bannon said Dr. Anthony Fauci’s entire family is going to “suffer” and be "hunted" after the midterms on his War Room Podcast. Last year, Bannon said Fauci's head should be "placed on a pike" outside the White House. The 81 year old Dr. Fauci has hired security guards. Threatening Federal Officials is a federal offense punishable by up to 5 years in prison. Ron DeSantis also issued threats against Dr. Fauci. Thus far, the DOJ has failed to hold any Conservative 'thought leaders' accountable for their calls for violence:
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Hey, CC, your approach to bubble craps is much more informed than the posted messaging above.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymFunny, I did not see any video of confiscated weaponry by the FBI, Capitol Police, or DOJ. Perhaps you could furnish some photographic, video, or even transcript documentation of the "tons of weapons." I know that you want to be accurate and not be considered as one who might be misleading in your assessments.
tuttigym
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A 2 second Google search returned:
Jan. 6 rioter who brought two guns to Capitol sentenced to five years in prison
I was responding to EB’s post which said that “no arms were confiscated because there were none.” (bolding mine)
Clearly that was incorrect, no??
Quote: WizardQuote: tuttigymTucker Carlson Show tonite has the video.
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EB already provided it.
I have a feeling Hilary was probably referring to the Electoral College, which Fox News, conveniently, clipped out. To that, assuming I'm right, I would say it was putting it too strongly to say the election was "stolen." However, it can't be compared to what Trump did. Clinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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Source for Trump ‘calling for an armed insurrection!!!’???
Back to the topic…. I now love Predictit. Betting odds probably better than all the polls which are loaded with bias. After stroked out Fetterman against carpetbagger Oz they have Oz comfortably winning (around 2/3,chance, maybe not ‘comfortably’). Shocking to me was Zeldin at 1/3 to win NY gov! I would have thought he’d be at 1-2%. And MiCHIGAN governor is also 1/3 chance for the Republican. Walker dead even with Warnock just shows how unhappy people are with Democrat control. Remember, Trump LOST Georgia and now two years later a pretty smart, well spoken guy (Warnock) might lose to perhaps the least qualified major candidate in HISTORY!
Poor Biden. Imagine the number of bills he will get on his desk if the Repubs take both houses that will end up with him writing VETO on them! He will then be the ‘obstructionist’ President!
I just hope the Republicans aren’t stupid enough to end the filibuster, as it WILL NOT EVEN help them get a bill passed, not while Biden has the VETO pen.
Database of Jan. 6th criminal cases.
Mark Andrew Massa - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Carrying a pistol without a license, possession of unregistered firearm
Christopher Michael Alberts - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, carry a pistol without a license outside home or place of business, Possession of large capacity ammunition feeding device
Jerod Thomas Bargar - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Unlawful possession a pistol, firearm, or ammunition outside their home or place of business, in the District of Columbia, without a valid license and registration certificate issued by the District of Columbia, Unlawful possession, sell, or transfer any large capacity ammunition feeding device, in the District of Columbia
Jeremy Bertino - Unlawful Possession of a Firearm
Lonnie Leroy Coffman - Possession of an Unregistered Firearm [11 Molotov cocktails]; Carrying a Pistol Without a License (outside home or place of business) [9mm Smith & Wesson handgun, .22 caliber North American arms revolver, 9mm Hi-Point handgun]; Carrying a Rifle or Shotgun (Outside Home or Place of Business) [Windham Weaponry rifle, Hatfield Gun Company SAS shotgun]; Possession of a Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Device; Unlawful Possession of Ammunition [.22 caliber rounds, 9mm rounds, 5.56 x 45mm rounds, .223 caliber rounds, shotgun shells]
Mark Sami Ibrahim - Firearms and Dangerous Weapons on Capitol Grounds
Cleveland Grover Meredith, Jr. - Possession of Unregistered Firearms; Possession of Unregistered Ammunition; Possession of Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Devices
Guy Wesley Reffitt - Transporting a Firearm in Furtherance of a Civil Disorder; Entering or Remaining in a Restricted Building or Grounds with a Firearm
Regarding Trump calling for an "armed insurrection," I don't know if he publicly said anything, but according to his former assistant Cassidy Hutchinson, privately he said, “I don’t f---ing care that they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me.....Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here. Let the people in."
Maybe that's what people are talking about.
“To my knowledge, none,” Sanborn is quoted as saying in several news outlets.
Quote: EvenBob"Jill Sanborn, assistant director of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, told a Senate committee that the FBI did not recover any guns at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot". Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., asked Jill Sanborn, assistant director of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, how many guns the FBI had confiscated in the Capitol or on its grounds on Jan. 6.
“To my knowledge, none,” Sanborn is quoted as saying in several news outlets.
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Could be no weapons were confiscated that day because no searches or arrests or detainment were made that day.
Quote: BillHasRetiredQuote: GialmereI'll take a stab at staying on the straight and narrow...
If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?
Think carefully
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RealClearPolitics numbers at this moment are House—R+29.5. Senate—R+3.
BTW, RCP is trying to clean up the pollsters' act by introducing a factor on oversampling, then correcting the poll's results using that factor and using that corrected result in coming up with these numbers.
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Well, yes. I would take over on both the numbers I posted. On the other hand, I'd take under on both RCP numbers (although after last night's debate R+3 in the Senate isn't absurd).
I'm not, however, asking for predictions (which we should probably do later). Instead, the scenario is you're a bookie taking over/under bets on how many House/Senate seats will be gained or lost. What would be your opening numbers as you attempt to get half the money wagered on over and the other half on under? That is to say: What does the general public think is going to happen?
Quote: EvenBob"Jill Sanborn, assistant director of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, told a Senate committee that the FBI did not recover any guns at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot". Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., asked Jill Sanborn, assistant director of the FBI’s counterterrorism division, how many guns the FBI had confiscated in the Capitol or on its grounds on Jan. 6.
“To my knowledge, none,” Sanborn is quoted as saying in several news outlets.
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Here is the full quote for accuracy and context (emphasis added):
"To my knowledge we have not recovered any on that day from any of the arrests at the scene at this point. But I don’t want to speak on behalf of Metro and Capitol police, but to my knowledge none.”
But she also later said a firearm and Molotov cocktails were confiscated in a vehicle that day.
As I previously posted, from all the investigations and criminal charges that occurred afterwards, we know people were armed.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/guns-insurrections-and-magnetometers-sidelight-cassidy-hutchinsons-testimony
Gene
Quote: GenoDRPhDid Trump call for an armed insurrection? Maybe. Or maybe not. But, according to Cassidy Hutchinson. Trump allowed or even wanted the crowd to be armed and knew they were going to march to the Capital Building. To wit, below:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/guns-insurrections-and-magnetometers-sidelight-cassidy-hutchinsons-testimony
Gene
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I may WANT a lot of things. That is totally different for CALLING for something.
Mikes post mentions nothing about what Trump WANTED.
There are a LOT of things I ‘want’ but would never ‘call for’, for a variety of reasons.
Mike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
Edit…. And because ‘Cassidy Hutchinson’ said something does not even necessarily make it true!
...(if you believe whathisname had no idea something was going on for over 3 hours even though he definitely called for the march down there, and didn't have responsibility to say something before 3 hours, well...)
Quote: SOOPOO
Mike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
Edit…. And because ‘Cassidy Hutchinson’ said something does not even necessarily make it true!
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No, it does not necessarily make it true, but it IS a source.
Quote: TigerWuA few examples of armed insurrectionists on January 6th. This is just actual firearm charges and/or convictions as of this posting. There are also countless other examples of people armed with "less lethal" weapons such as stun guns, batons, baseball bats, sharpened poles, hockey sticks, knives, pepper spray, etc.
Database of Jan. 6th criminal cases.
Mark Andrew Massa - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Carrying a pistol without a license, possession of unregistered firearm
Christopher Michael Alberts - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, carry a pistol without a license outside home or place of business, Possession of large capacity ammunition feeding device
Jerod Thomas Bargar - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Unlawful possession a pistol, firearm, or ammunition outside their home or place of business, in the District of Columbia, without a valid license and registration certificate issued by the District of Columbia, Unlawful possession, sell, or transfer any large capacity ammunition feeding device, in the District of Columbia
Jeremy Bertino - Unlawful Possession of a Firearm
Lonnie Leroy Coffman - Possession of an Unregistered Firearm [11 Molotov cocktails]; Carrying a Pistol Without a License (outside home or place of business) [9mm Smith & Wesson handgun, .22 caliber North American arms revolver, 9mm Hi-Point handgun]; Carrying a Rifle or Shotgun (Outside Home or Place of Business) [Windham Weaponry rifle, Hatfield Gun Company SAS shotgun]; Possession of a Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Device; Unlawful Possession of Ammunition [.22 caliber rounds, 9mm rounds, 5.56 x 45mm rounds, .223 caliber rounds, shotgun shells]
Mark Sami Ibrahim - Firearms and Dangerous Weapons on Capitol Grounds
Cleveland Grover Meredith, Jr. - Possession of Unregistered Firearms; Possession of Unregistered Ammunition; Possession of Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Devices
Guy Wesley Reffitt - Transporting a Firearm in Furtherance of a Civil Disorder; Entering or Remaining in a Restricted Building or Grounds with a Firearm
Regarding Trump calling for an "armed insurrection," I don't know if he publicly said anything, but according to his former assistant Cassidy Hutchinson, privately he said, “I don’t f---ing care that they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me.....Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here. Let the people in."
Maybe that's what people are talking about.
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I did not review the whole data base you furnished. The vast majority of guilty pleas and convictions were for the unforgiveable acts of "demonstrating" and "parading." There were no firearms discharging with the exception of the one that killed the female demonstrator in the capitol building by a fed.
I do not defend the vandalism and rowdy behavior of the demonstrators or any law breaking which is totally unacceptable but framing the incident as an "armed insurrection" is IMHO a bit over the top.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: TigerWuA few examples of armed insurrectionists on January 6th. This is just actual firearm charges and/or convictions as of this posting. There are also countless other examples of people armed with "less lethal" weapons such as stun guns, batons, baseball bats, sharpened poles, hockey sticks, knives, pepper spray, etc.
Database of Jan. 6th criminal cases.
Mark Andrew Massa - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Carrying a pistol without a license, possession of unregistered firearm
Christopher Michael Alberts - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, carry a pistol without a license outside home or place of business, Possession of large capacity ammunition feeding device
Jerod Thomas Bargar - Unlawful possession of a firearm on Capitol grounds or buildings, Unlawful possession a pistol, firearm, or ammunition outside their home or place of business, in the District of Columbia, without a valid license and registration certificate issued by the District of Columbia, Unlawful possession, sell, or transfer any large capacity ammunition feeding device, in the District of Columbia
Jeremy Bertino - Unlawful Possession of a Firearm
Lonnie Leroy Coffman - Possession of an Unregistered Firearm [11 Molotov cocktails]; Carrying a Pistol Without a License (outside home or place of business) [9mm Smith & Wesson handgun, .22 caliber North American arms revolver, 9mm Hi-Point handgun]; Carrying a Rifle or Shotgun (Outside Home or Place of Business) [Windham Weaponry rifle, Hatfield Gun Company SAS shotgun]; Possession of a Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Device; Unlawful Possession of Ammunition [.22 caliber rounds, 9mm rounds, 5.56 x 45mm rounds, .223 caliber rounds, shotgun shells]
Mark Sami Ibrahim - Firearms and Dangerous Weapons on Capitol Grounds
Cleveland Grover Meredith, Jr. - Possession of Unregistered Firearms; Possession of Unregistered Ammunition; Possession of Large Capacity Ammunition Feeding Devices
Guy Wesley Reffitt - Transporting a Firearm in Furtherance of a Civil Disorder; Entering or Remaining in a Restricted Building or Grounds with a Firearm
Regarding Trump calling for an "armed insurrection," I don't know if he publicly said anything, but according to his former assistant Cassidy Hutchinson, privately he said, “I don’t f---ing care that they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me.....Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here. Let the people in."
Maybe that's what people are talking about.
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I did not review the whole data base you furnished. The vast majority of guilty pleas and convictions were for the unforgiveable acts of "demonstrating" and "parading." There were no firearms discharging with the exception of the one that killed the female demonstrator in the capitol building by a fed.
I do not defend the vandalism and rowdy behavior of the demonstrators or any law breaking which is totally unacceptable but framing the incident as an "armed insurrection" is IMHO a bit over the top.
tuttigym
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Agree. The insurrection failed. It was an “armed insurrection attempt.”
Quote: ams288
Agree. The insurrection failed. It was an “armed insurrection attempt.”
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Quote: ams288Agree. The insurrection failed. It was an “armed insurrection attempt.”
Let's see, 20,000+ demonstrators or rally participants with about 10+ folks carrying a pistol an "armed insurrection"? Works for me.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: ams288Agree. The insurrection failed. It was an “armed insurrection attempt.”
Let's see, 20,000+ demonstrators or rally participants with about 10+ folks carrying a pistol an "armed insurrection"? Works for me.
tuttigym
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10+ people CHARGED with carrying firearms. God knows how many were carrying otherwise that were never caught, charged, or otherwise ignored by prosecutors/investigators. Plus, as previously mentioned, there were plenty of other "less lethal" weapons involved.
EDIT: Not all of those 20,000 protestors were involved in the attempted insurrection. "Only" about 2,000 people actually stormed the Capitol building, with hundreds more right outside. Then of course there was the whole "Hang Mike Pence" thing with the gallows being constructed, and a bunch of people with flexcuffs.
I guess we can argue all day if it was an "armed insurrection," but if not it was a helluva riot.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
Yet not a single poll has ever shown Masters leading Kelly in AZ:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html
Quote:All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by emboldened radical-left Democrats, which is what they're doing. And stolen by the fake news media. That's what they've done and what they're doing. We will never give up, we will never concede. It doesn't happen. You don't concede when there's theft involved.
Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore and that's what this is all about. And to use a favorite term that all of you people really came up with: We will stop the steal.
Quote:Now, it is up to Congress to confront this egregious assault on our democracy. And after this, we're going to walk down, and I'll be there with you, we're going to walk down, we're going to walk down.
Anyone you want, but I think right here, we're going to walk down to the Capitol, and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we're probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.
Because you'll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated.
Quote:The Republicans have to get tougher. You're not going to have a Republican Party if you don't get tougher. They want to play so straight. They want to play so, sir, yes, the United States. The Constitution doesn't allow me to send them back to the States. Well, I say, yes it does, because the Constitution says you have to protect our country and you have to protect our Constitution, and you can't vote on fraud. And fraud breaks up everything, doesn't it? When you catch somebody in a fraud, you're allowed to go by very different rules.
Quote:And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore.
Our exciting adventures and boldest endeavors have not yet begun. My fellow Americans, for our movement, for our children, and for our beloved country.
And I say this despite all that's happened. The best is yet to come.
So we're going to, we're going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I love Pennsylvania Avenue. And we're going to the Capitol, and we're going to try and give.
The Democrats are hopeless — they never vote for anything. Not even one vote. But we're going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones because the strong ones don't need any of our help. We're going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.
So let's walk down Pennsylvania Avenue.
He did also say this, though (gotta get that plausible deniability in there):
Quote:I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: tuttigymQuote: ams288Agree. The insurrection failed. It was an “armed insurrection attempt.”
Let's see, 20,000+ demonstrators or rally participants with about 10+ folks carrying a pistol an "armed insurrection"? Works for me.
tuttigym
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10+ people CHARGED with carrying firearms. God knows how many were carrying otherwise that were never caught, charged, or otherwise ignored by prosecutors/investigators. Plus, as previously mentioned, there were plenty of other "less lethal" weapons involved.
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Yep, you are right, God knows and you don't. "Less lethal" weapons like pencils, pens, banners, staffs, barricades, liquid sprays, etc. Sure does remind me of the BLM riots of the summer. Now those were "peaceful" demonstrations. You know that because no one was arrested or jailed. Wonder where the DOJ was?
I am wagering on the GOP to take over both houses of Congress and then political stagnation.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigym
Yep, you are right, God knows and you don't. "Less lethal" weapons like pencils, pens, banners, staffs, barricades, liquid sprays, etc. Sure does remind me of the BLM riots of the summer. Now those were "peaceful" demonstrations. You know that because no one was arrested or jailed. Wonder where the DOJ was?
By the end of June 2020, over 14,000 people had been arrested across 49 cities in connection to various BLM protests/riots/etc.
As far as the DOJ, they provided the DEA the legal authority to surveil and arrest protestors. Furthermore, the DOJ also charged four people with destruction of federal property in D.C.
This stuff is easily google-able...
Quote:I am wagering on the GOP to take over both houses of Congress and then political stagnation.
tuttigym
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I agree with this.
tuttigym
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhDid Trump call for an armed insurrection? Maybe. Or maybe not. But, according to Cassidy Hutchinson. Trump allowed or even wanted the crowd to be armed and knew they were going to march to the Capital Building. To wit, below:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/guns-insurrections-and-magnetometers-sidelight-cassidy-hutchinsons-testimony
Gene
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I may WANT a lot of things. That is totally different for CALLING for something.
Mikes post mentions nothing about what Trump WANTED.
There are a LOT of things I ‘want’ but would never ‘call for’, for a variety of reasons.
Mike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
Edit…. And because ‘Cassidy Hutchinson’ said something does not even necessarily make it true!
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We await-somewhat impatiently-sworn testimony from those in positions to rebute Ms. Hutchinson's sworn testimony. Despite their protestations to the press, they thus far have flatly refused to go under oath. That, to me, is telling.
I just gave you a source-Trump's own words-that he wanted and expected and allowed the crowd to be armed with firearms and other weapons. That's the "armed" part. Do you doubt the entry into the Capital Building was not an "insurrection", under the law?
You and I may want a lot of thinhgs that we may never call for due to a variety of reasons. But neither of us have the power of the President of the United States either.
As for betting on the election, I tend to follow FiveThirtyEight's modeling on where to place my money. 225 House seats GOP, and the senate split 50-50 would be my best prediction right now.
Gene
Quote: tuttigymThe speech was political rhetoric and no more inflammatory than what those on the other side keep saying about "stealing our democracy" and "taking back our country." I am pretty confident that you could ferret out some similar high-volume speeches from just about any politician running for office today. It is what politics is all about.
tuttigym
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Can you cite any other speech in the US in recent history that caused a crowd to engage in an armed attack on the halls of power in order to overthrow a lawfully elected government?
Gene
Quote: SOOPOOMike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
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My source is largely his speech in front of the White House Jan 6. Yes, he didn't use the word "insurrection." He did know the crowd was armed and emotionally charged up, which he called to march to the Capitol. He also never repudiated Giuliani's, "Let's have trial by combat." The riots went on for hours while he sat watching on TV, doing nothing to stop it, despite plenty of pleas to do so. Eventually, he justified the events with this tweet.
"These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!" -- Donald J. Trump
Source
I'll concede my wording could have been better and will retract my comment. I am still not sure what Trump thought or hoped would go down, as long as it ended with him staying in power.
Quote: TigerWu
By the end of June 2020, over 14,000 people had been arrested across 49 cities in connection to various BLM protests/riots/etc.
As far as the DOJ, they provided the DEA the legal authority to surveil and arrest protestors. Furthermore, the DOJ also charged four people with destruction of federal property in D.C.
How many high profile "hearings"? How many thrown in jail without bond or bail? How many "protesters" arrested outside the Supreme Court or their personal residences? How many convictions and lengthy sentences for real vandalism, arson, and mayhem?
I know you are intelligent and independent, and I am confident you do recognize there is a double standard when it comes to politics.
tuttigym
What does a responsible leader do and did he do it?
Maybe he thought the police were just being gently prodded to get their attention.
Quote: tuttigym
How many high profile "hearings"? How many thrown in jail without bond or bail? How many "protesters" arrested outside the Supreme Court or their personal residences? How many convictions and lengthy sentences for real vandalism, arson, and mayhem?
I don't know the answer to any of those questions. Like I said, a lot of this information is easily google-able, and if you're really interested in the answers, I'm sure you can find them.
Quote:I know you are intelligent and independent, and I am confident you do recognize there is a double standard when it comes to politics.
tuttigym
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What is the double standard? I made no mention of political affiliation with regards to any BLM or Jan. 6 arrests. Since you want me to google all your answers for you, I actually found an article with some more interesting information about the BLM riots. Here's some choice quotes:
Re: the Attorney General and DOJ getting involved:
Quote:Attorney General William Barr has urged his prosecutors to bring federal charges on protesters who cause violence and has suggested that rarely used sedition charges could apply. And the Department of Justice has pushed for detention even as prisons across the U.S. were releasing high-risk inmates because of COVID-19 and prosecutors had been told to consider the risks of incarceration during a pandemic when seeking detention.
Defense attorneys and civil rights activists are questioning why the Department of Justice has taken on cases to begin with. They say most belong in state court, where defendants typically get much lighter sentences. And they argue federal authorities appear to be cracking down on protesters in an effort to stymie demonstrations.
Re: Political affiliation:
Quote:Some of those facing charges undoubtedly share far-left and anti-government views. Far-right protesters also have been arrested and charged.
Quote:But many have had no previous run-ins with the law and no apparent ties to antifa, the umbrella term for leftist militant groups that Trump has said he wants to declare a terrorist organization.
Quote:While some of the defendants clearly hold radical or anti-government beliefs, prosecutors have provided little evidence of any affiliations they have with organized extremist groups.
Re: Being held in jail:
Quote:In dozens of cases, the government has pushed to keep the protesters behind bars while they await their trials amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed more than 220,000 people across the U.S.
Quote:In some cases, prosecutors have gone so far as appealing judge’s orders to release defendants. Pre-trial detention generally is reserved only for people who are clearly dangers to the community or a risk of fleeing.
You should really read that whole article. It's pretty interesting and informative. There's a lot more detail about who was arrested and how they were treated, and will probably answer a lot of your questions.
Wait! Don't classify a pencil as 'less lethal'. John Wick once killed three men with one.Quote: tuttigym(snip for straight line setup)
"Less lethal" weapons like pencils, pens, banners, staffs, barricades, liquid sprays, etc.
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Quote: BillHasRetiredWait! Don't classify a pencil as 'less lethal'. John Wick once killed three men with one.Quote: tuttigym(snip for straight line setup)
"Less lethal" weapons like pencils, pens, banners, staffs, barricades, liquid sprays, etc.
link to original postAnd two in John Wick 2
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Never forget the Joker’s magic trick:
So there goes the last legal market for election betting, as of February. Thanks, Nanny State!
Quote: TigerWu
What is the double standard?
It seems the majority of convictions shown were for "parading and demonstrating." I am assuming that those who were convicted were Republican. Doesn't the First Amendment allow for "public assembly" and "free speech"? Do we now have precedent to arrest anyone who "parades" and "demonstrates" for or against causes?
As I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
Quote: TigerWuHere are some snippet's from Trump's speech on Jan. 6th. Is it enough to incite people to riot and attempt an insurrection? Guess it was enough for some people.... The whole speech is pretty long.
Quote:All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by emboldened radical-left Democrats, which is what they're doing. And stolen by the fake news media. That's what they've done and what they're doing. We will never give up, we will never concede. It doesn't happen. You don't concede when there's theft involved.
Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore and that's what this is all about. And to use a favorite term that all of you people really came up with: We will stop the steal.Quote:Now, it is up to Congress to confront this egregious assault on our democracy. And after this, we're going to walk down, and I'll be there with you, we're going to walk down, we're going to walk down.
Anyone you want, but I think right here, we're going to walk down to the Capitol, and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we're probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.
Because you'll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated.Quote:The Republicans have to get tougher. You're not going to have a Republican Party if you don't get tougher. They want to play so straight. They want to play so, sir, yes, the United States. The Constitution doesn't allow me to send them back to the States. Well, I say, yes it does, because the Constitution says you have to protect our country and you have to protect our Constitution, and you can't vote on fraud. And fraud breaks up everything, doesn't it? When you catch somebody in a fraud, you're allowed to go by very different rules.
Quote:And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore.
Our exciting adventures and boldest endeavors have not yet begun. My fellow Americans, for our movement, for our children, and for our beloved country.
And I say this despite all that's happened. The best is yet to come.
So we're going to, we're going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I love Pennsylvania Avenue. And we're going to the Capitol, and we're going to try and give.
The Democrats are hopeless — they never vote for anything. Not even one vote. But we're going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones because the strong ones don't need any of our help. We're going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.
So let's walk down Pennsylvania Avenue.
He did also say this, though (gotta get that plausible deniability in there):Quote:I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.
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I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
Quote: tuttigymThe speech was political rhetoric and no more inflammatory than what those on the other side keep saying about "stealing our democracy" and "taking back our country." I am pretty confident that you could ferret out some similar high-volume speeches from just about any politician running for office today. It is what politics is all about.
tuttigym
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This!!!!
Quote: tuttigymAs I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
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I agree. But I'm not a lawyer or prosecutor or official involved in any of these cases, I'm just a regular guy like you, so I don't know who and who isn't being treated fairly, if anyone.
As you mentioned, there were 20,000+ people at the rally on Jan. 6, the vast majority of which (I'm assuming) were probably Conservatives and Republicans. Less than 1/2% of them have actually been charged with anything, and I believe the majority of those were the ones barging into the Capitol building and stealing and vandalizing and trying to hunt down politicians.
That leaves over 99% of people present who were assembling, parading, and demonstrating who have not been charged with anything.
Quote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post.
Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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I think you're quoting the wrong guy.
I never said Trump personally called for an armed insurrection. I think it was Wizard who said it, and he has since retracted that statement.
Quote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
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My source is largely his speech in front of the White House Jan 6. Yes, he didn't use the word "insurrection." He did know the crowd was armed and emotionally charged up, which he called to march to the Capitol. He also never repudiated Giuliani's, "Let's have trial by combat." The riots went on for hours while he sat watching on TV, doing nothing to stop it, despite plenty of pleas to do so. Eventually, he justified the events with this tweet.
"These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!" -- Donald J. Trump
Source
I'll concede my wording could have been better and will retract my comment. I am still not sure what Trump thought or hoped would go down, as long as it ended with him staying in power.
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Then you and I are now 100% in agreement. His actions, as per his usual, are likely to rile up his imbecile followers. Sort of like when Shumer used incendiary language threatening the right leaning Supreme Court Justices. It’s not smart. But neither is criminal.
Trump did NOT ‘call for’ and armed insurrection.
If you want to say…. If it wasn’t for Trump and his stupid minions, there wouldn’t have been an armed insurrection, I’ll agree with that, too.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah
Of course the Republican will win. It won't even be close. Wait two weeks and turn 90 cents into a dollar.
While I am a contrarian by nature and would be inclined to speculate on an underdog given the right opportunity, betting on big favorites like this (and the Democrat in WA) and earning 10%+ returns is better than money in the bank.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
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I addressed this a few posts ago and linked several sources. Thousands of people were arrested throughout 2020 and jailed as a result of the BLM protests, so I don't know where this myth comes from that "nothing was done."
P.S. Not a single city was "burned down" that year, by the way.
GOP wants to defund the FBI, DOJ, and the entire government now.
I think the Republican, Lee Zeldin, is not nearly as likely to win as the $.27 on predictit. I’ll lay 4-1 on Hochul.
Warnock and Walker are even! I’ll take Warnock for even money.
Anyone want Val Demmings? Or Stacy Abrams? I will give you even money if EITHER wins. And I’ll double it if BOTH win.
Make me some offers!!!
Quote: SOOPOOI want some action!
I think the Republican, Lee Zeldin, is not nearly as likely to win as the $.27 on predictit. I’ll lay 4-1 on Hochul.
Warnock and Walker are even! I’ll take Warnock for even money.
Anyone want Val Demmings? Or Stacy Abrams? I will give you even money if EITHER wins. And I’ll double it if BOTH win.
Make me some offers!!!
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I think $.27 is about the right price for Zeldin. In the last governor race in NJ, the insurgent Republican faced a massive polling deficit but nearly won on election day. Zeldin is likely to enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage among his voters, especially after the debate. Voters in the northeast will reliably send Democrats to Congress but aren't averse to electing Republicans to state offices.
It could be very close.
