Election Betting
July 2nd, 2024 at 9:32:24 PM
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The Predictit betting market for the dem nominee now has Kamala at 41 and Biden at only 40.
Will he be out tomorrow or by Friday?
I suspect Invoking the 25th amendment or resigning is on the table as well.
Will he be out tomorrow or by Friday?
I suspect Invoking the 25th amendment or resigning is on the table as well.
July 2nd, 2024 at 11:30:21 PM
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Quote: KeyserThe Predictit betting market for the dem nominee now has Kamala at 41 and Biden at only 40.
Will he be out tomorrow or by Friday?
I suspect Invoking the 25th amendment or resigning is on the table as well.
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Everyday since the debate Trump goes up and Biden goes down. Polymarket has Biden and Harris almost tied.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 3rd, 2024 at 7:33:26 AM
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I didn't think Biden would be replaced this late in the game but it's looking more and more likely. I think if he gets replaced we might see a slight dip in Trump's (betting) odds.
July 3rd, 2024 at 7:44:42 AM
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Yes. In the betting, Trump is the highest he's been while Biden is at the lowest. The Harris camp is once again reminding people that they will not stand idly by if someone tries to cut the line in front of them.
Meanwhile, on the RCP election map, New Hampshire has joined Virginia as a state that has been moved from leaning blue to toss up battleground. It only has four EC votes but this is actually a pretty big deal.
Trump leads in Nevada but its six votes don't help him much. However, the six votes combined with New Hampshire's four is as good as a rust belt state and therefore creates another Trump path to victory
I have to say, I thought I'd seen pretty much everything the presidential election dog and pony show had to offer. But this election, with its trials and porn stars and brain freezes leading to party civil war, is beyond the pale. It's the old cliche that if a Hollywood writer wrote this story, it would be rejected for being too ridiculous and unbelievable.
Meanwhile, on the RCP election map, New Hampshire has joined Virginia as a state that has been moved from leaning blue to toss up battleground. It only has four EC votes but this is actually a pretty big deal.
Trump leads in Nevada but its six votes don't help him much. However, the six votes combined with New Hampshire's four is as good as a rust belt state and therefore creates another Trump path to victory
I have to say, I thought I'd seen pretty much everything the presidential election dog and pony show had to offer. But this election, with its trials and porn stars and brain freezes leading to party civil war, is beyond the pale. It's the old cliche that if a Hollywood writer wrote this story, it would be rejected for being too ridiculous and unbelievable.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
July 3rd, 2024 at 7:51:30 AM
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Quote: TigerWuI didn't think Biden would be replaced this late in the game but it's looking more and more likely. I think if he gets replaced we might see a slight dip in Trump's (betting) odds.
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It is at this point very hard to do and harder by the day. I heard he has like $90MM in his campaign that cannot simply be given to another candidate. Ballot access issues in at least 3 states as I have heard. As we close down on 100 days left it will take much.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
July 3rd, 2024 at 9:17:14 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuI didn't think Biden would be replaced this late in the game but it's looking more and more likely. I think if he gets replaced we might see a slight dip in Trump's (betting) odds.
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It is at this point very hard to do and harder by the day. I heard he has like $90MM in his campaign that cannot simply be given to another candidate. Ballot access issues in at least 3 states as I have heard. As we close down on 100 days left it will take much.
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Probably so. It sounds like the GOP is going to immediately file lawsuits and hamstring any attempts to replace Biden on a number of States' ballots. That would all but guarantee that Trump wins if the new Dem candidate isn't even on the ballot.
Maybe worse case scenario is, if Biden wins, he almost immediately steps down, thereby making Harris President. I wonder if there are any odds on that yet?
July 3rd, 2024 at 9:21:03 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuI didn't think Biden would be replaced this late in the game but it's looking more and more likely. I think if he gets replaced we might see a slight dip in Trump's (betting) odds.
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It is at this point very hard to do and harder by the day. I heard he has like $90MM in his campaign that cannot simply be given to another candidate. Ballot access issues in at least 3 states as I have heard. As we close down on 100 days left it will take much.
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I heard that Harris is the only one that can inherit the DNC war chest and if it's anybody else but her they get nothing, they have to raise their own money. Reason being that people gave that money to Biden Harris not to somebody else.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 3rd, 2024 at 9:48:18 AM
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I see some experts estimate that 70% of the electorate is locked into their presidential candidates with no chance of changing their mind regardless of what happens. So, any movement this week should be evaluated with the understanding that <30% of the eligible voters are in play.
The RCP Poll Average currently has Trump ahead by 2.4%. Not sure whether the underlying polls are all updated and whether all of the post-debate bump has registered. That may be regarded by the Biden camp as not being an insurmountable lead.
I personally don't think Biden will withdraw. But it's hard to be confident about anything in this pre-election circus.
The RCP Poll Average currently has Trump ahead by 2.4%. Not sure whether the underlying polls are all updated and whether all of the post-debate bump has registered. That may be regarded by the Biden camp as not being an insurmountable lead.
I personally don't think Biden will withdraw. But it's hard to be confident about anything in this pre-election circus.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 3rd, 2024 at 9:50:06 AM
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Electionbettingodds.com, which updates their odds every minute, now has Harris well ahead of Biden (but massively behind Trump). Also, a "leaked report," which the White House emphatically denies, says that Biden may actually decide by the end of the week if he is going to drop out or not.
July 3rd, 2024 at 10:54:08 AM
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"U.K.-based betting company William Hill is offering odds of 11/2 (15.4 percent) on Harris being the Democrat nominee later this year, against 6/1 (14.3 percent) for Biden, Newsweek reports."
"If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would take the money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure."
Anybody else nominated besides her would lose all that money as I said in a previous post.
"If named as the party nominee, Harris, 59, would take the money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure."
Anybody else nominated besides her would lose all that money as I said in a previous post.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 3rd, 2024 at 1:27:26 PM
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Quote: gordonm888I see some experts estimate that 70% of the electorate is locked into their presidential candidates with no chance of changing their mind regardless of what happens. So, any movement this week should be evaluated with the understanding that <30% of the eligible voters are in play.
That number seems way low to me. My guess would be closer to 98% of likely voters are locked in.
I don't personally know any people that are still deciding between the two.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 3rd, 2024 at 1:53:55 PM
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Quote: DRich
That number seems way low to me. My guess would be closer to 98% of likely voters are locked in.
I don't personally know any people that are still deciding between the two.
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I have met exactly one person that was on the fence between Trump and RFK Jr.
I think if Biden drops out, Trump's betting odds will take a slight hit, but who knows what will happen to RFK Jr's odds. Probably nothing; he doesn't really have a chance, anyway.
July 3rd, 2024 at 3:37:00 PM
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The White House is again reiterating that Biden is not stepping aside and will fight on. So, we'll just have to see if party pressure increases or fades away.
Uncharacteristically, Trump has been pretty quiet the last week. Whether he's merely content to watch the blue team fight it out amongst themselves, or worries that a too wounded Biden might lead to a relief pitcher being brought in is debatable. Maybe it's both.
Meanwhile, the recent SCOTUS decision has led to Trump's sentencing hearing being delayed until September. So that wildcard will be in play all summer. How much affect it'll have on events is also debatable and appears to be a dry well for blue hopes. As one commentator quipped, "At this point, Trump's about one mug shot away from a landslide this November."
Uncharacteristically, Trump has been pretty quiet the last week. Whether he's merely content to watch the blue team fight it out amongst themselves, or worries that a too wounded Biden might lead to a relief pitcher being brought in is debatable. Maybe it's both.
Meanwhile, the recent SCOTUS decision has led to Trump's sentencing hearing being delayed until September. So that wildcard will be in play all summer. How much affect it'll have on events is also debatable and appears to be a dry well for blue hopes. As one commentator quipped, "At this point, Trump's about one mug shot away from a landslide this November."
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
July 3rd, 2024 at 4:21:17 PM
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When you see headlines like this(aka politician caught in a scandal and says I will never resign) you can expect it any day.
After the post debate plunge the Biden markets stabilized and recovered well above 50% for the nomination. It has now tanked in the last 24 hours. Not sure why. Must be some insider knowledge.
Not trying to be political but why is the mainstream not asking why Kamala is not the favorite to replace him? For months Newsom and Michelle have had better odds even though they have repeatedly said they aren’t running. The logical step would be for Kamala to take over. Another VP pick can easily be found. Of course everyone knows this isn’t happening because she is so incredibly disliked that they would rather just go with a whole different ticket. You almost have to feel sorry for her.
July 3rd, 2024 at 5:25:49 PM
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What are the odds Project 2025 is a blueprint for a second American Civil War? One tweet I ran across says it includes the complete defunding of public transportation. Ain't nobody going anywhere during a civil war.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 3, 2024
July 3rd, 2024 at 6:02:25 PM
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The arguments for going with Kamala are:
- the $90M in contributions can be readily transferred to her
- she is a black woman who is next in line, and it would be objectionable to the Democrat base to pass over her
The arguments for going with Michelle Obama are:
-Passing over Kamala to pick Michelle is not objectionable, because they are both black women
-Michelle Obama is leading Trump in the polls 50%-43%
Of course, Michelle Obama has made it clear previously that she has no interest in running for President.
This would be a great spectator sport if only there weren't so much at stake.
- the $90M in contributions can be readily transferred to her
- she is a black woman who is next in line, and it would be objectionable to the Democrat base to pass over her
The arguments for going with Michelle Obama are:
-Passing over Kamala to pick Michelle is not objectionable, because they are both black women
-Michelle Obama is leading Trump in the polls 50%-43%
Of course, Michelle Obama has made it clear previously that she has no interest in running for President.
This would be a great spectator sport if only there weren't so much at stake.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 3rd, 2024 at 6:06:54 PM
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The internet is done with Michelle's "we go high while they go low." They want to go low because the other side has been digging a bottomless pit for many years now.
July 3rd, 2024 at 6:34:29 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeThe internet is done with Michelle's "we go high while they go low." They want to go low because the other side has been digging a bottomless pit for many years now.
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Warning: It is against the groundrules of this thread to express partisan political viewpoints and to denounce either party or any candidate. Your post above does exactly that. Doing so again will place you in jeopardy of moderator discipline.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 3rd, 2024 at 11:25:28 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: KeyserThe Predictit betting market for the dem nominee now has Kamala at 41 and Biden at only 40.
Will he be out tomorrow or by Friday?
I suspect Invoking the 25th amendment or resigning is on the table as well.
link to original post
Everyday since the debate Trump goes up and Biden goes down. Polymarket has Biden and Harris almost tied.
link to original post
In just 24 hours Kamala Harris has overtaken Biden on the betting sites. Things are moving very fast.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 4th, 2024 at 1:24:23 AM
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Memes floating around to cancel or postpone the election.
July 4th, 2024 at 3:49:29 AM
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Criticizing the meme. Also, IANAL, but I have read the SCOTUS decision and I did once stay at a Holiday Inn.
1. The Election is set by law by Congress, and carried out by the States. It does not touch the Executive Branch at all.
2. Absolute immunity for POTUS is only related to the functions the Constitution assigns to POTUS. The presumption of immunity adheres only to those official acts that are jointly shared by POTUS and Congress. There is no prosecutorial immunity for unofficial or private acts.
3. Given 1., any attempt for the Executive to obstruct or delay the Election would at most enjoy only presumptive immunity, but even that is a stretch. Looks more like impeachment bait from where I sit as POTUS would be violating his oath of office.
Yes,CC, I know you didn't make the meme. But whoever did so is pretty misguided in what the SCOTUS decision really means.
1. The Election is set by law by Congress, and carried out by the States. It does not touch the Executive Branch at all.
2. Absolute immunity for POTUS is only related to the functions the Constitution assigns to POTUS. The presumption of immunity adheres only to those official acts that are jointly shared by POTUS and Congress. There is no prosecutorial immunity for unofficial or private acts.
3. Given 1., any attempt for the Executive to obstruct or delay the Election would at most enjoy only presumptive immunity, but even that is a stretch. Looks more like impeachment bait from where I sit as POTUS would be violating his oath of office.
Yes,CC, I know you didn't make the meme. But whoever did so is pretty misguided in what the SCOTUS decision really means.
July 4th, 2024 at 4:18:34 AM
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As long as I am here....
The Dems are in a tighter time bind that is generally known. In Ohio, the parties must have their nominees in to the state 90 days before the election. The Dem Convention is delayed until after the Paris Olympics so the Dems have the airwaves all to themselves, but that puts it about two weeks beyond Ohio's deadline (and maybe a couple of other states). Ohio is not budging, and the convention cannot be moved at this late date. The solution the DNC came up with is a virtual nomination roll call, and the last date I saw for this was 11 July.
That was pre-debate. Now? Well the Ohio problem still exists, and I have seen exactly one reference to the issue in the news deluge since. Assuming it's still true, that means one week from now, the DNC will have to hold a nominating call, and that's when we find out if Biden remains the one, or someone else is in the barrel.
As for the problem of financing, I saw an article where one of the many mega-donor conference calls the campaign is holding featured a donor asking for a refund if Harris was chosen as the nominee. Whether or not that is going to happen, but it does bring up the question: can donors get refunds? I imagine that if the finances of the B-H campaign were stranded because neither one got nominated, the DNC would probable pressure the campaign to process the refunds as fast as possible so that the returned money gets redonated to the new campaign coffers. Sure, it's a lot of double-work, and the reinvestment rate will be less than 100%, but as things stand right now, it's probable the best option for the Party of the Donkey.
As far as the Silence of the Trumps goes, you really have to wonder at the new continence of DJT. Gone is the bare-knuckles of 2016 and 2020. I wonder who has finally gotten his ear. It has appeared to work well at the debate, where he just stood back and let Joe keep digging his own hole, and now, standing back and letting the D party and the B-H campaign beat each other to death. Strange times, indeed.
The Dems are in a tighter time bind that is generally known. In Ohio, the parties must have their nominees in to the state 90 days before the election. The Dem Convention is delayed until after the Paris Olympics so the Dems have the airwaves all to themselves, but that puts it about two weeks beyond Ohio's deadline (and maybe a couple of other states). Ohio is not budging, and the convention cannot be moved at this late date. The solution the DNC came up with is a virtual nomination roll call, and the last date I saw for this was 11 July.
That was pre-debate. Now? Well the Ohio problem still exists, and I have seen exactly one reference to the issue in the news deluge since. Assuming it's still true, that means one week from now, the DNC will have to hold a nominating call, and that's when we find out if Biden remains the one, or someone else is in the barrel.
As for the problem of financing, I saw an article where one of the many mega-donor conference calls the campaign is holding featured a donor asking for a refund if Harris was chosen as the nominee. Whether or not that is going to happen, but it does bring up the question: can donors get refunds? I imagine that if the finances of the B-H campaign were stranded because neither one got nominated, the DNC would probable pressure the campaign to process the refunds as fast as possible so that the returned money gets redonated to the new campaign coffers. Sure, it's a lot of double-work, and the reinvestment rate will be less than 100%, but as things stand right now, it's probable the best option for the Party of the Donkey.
As far as the Silence of the Trumps goes, you really have to wonder at the new continence of DJT. Gone is the bare-knuckles of 2016 and 2020. I wonder who has finally gotten his ear. It has appeared to work well at the debate, where he just stood back and let Joe keep digging his own hole, and now, standing back and letting the D party and the B-H campaign beat each other to death. Strange times, indeed.
July 4th, 2024 at 5:10:07 AM
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Seems the POTUS can't be impeached and removed from office if the party of the POTUS doesn't want a conviction. It takes 67 votes in the Senate for a conviction. It would be a risk, but you know the GOP is letting their POTUS go no matter what. The Dems, maybe not so much. This is why Dems say if Trump wins, it may be the last Presidential Election because Trump will ban future elections and the GOP & SCOTUS won't stop him. The SCOTUS seems to be extremely one-sided so they may stop Biden from banning elections. The SCOTUS is just making up rules now not based on stare decisis, it's beyond kangaroo court status whatever that is.
July 4th, 2024 at 5:34:18 AM
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Quote: ChumpChangeMemes floating around to cancel or postpone the election.
link to original post
4-day suspension for political speech. Immediately after a warning, as well. Your post is not about election odds.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 4th, 2024 at 6:04:06 AM
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Further thoughts...and their relation to election betting.
Once you get past all the baked-in values, mostly attitudes about who is most likely to win, personal preferences, and the like, what's left on the margin in most election betting is IMHO reactions to news on those baked-in assumptions.
Take this post-debate cuisinart. Trump is frankly off the radar, as has been pointed out here and in a couple of articles. So he represents a fixed quantity. It's all-eyes-on-Biden time. This has been enhanced by a couple of things: the SCOTUS immunity decision, and the debate results. My take on these two items:
- the immunity case has definitely upset the various legal matters surrounding Trump. Now, all of the cases, including the NY convictions, must be re-examined to determine if the charges are for official acts or not. It would be pretty easy in the NY case to show they do not, but the requirement to reexamine them means more legal maneuvers by lawyers from both sides, which has the practical effect of delaying sentencing. Before, sentencing would have been four days before the RNC convention, now, it's delayed until mid-September, and might get further pushed back if appeals to the convictions succeed for the defense.
- Once you eliminate the legal front (since a lot of the action is on hold), the only thing that's newsworthy is Biden's situation. Not just the debate fallout, but Hunter goes on trial for tax issues in mid-July. That has to count as more negative news. Add in the Ohio deadline, and the civil war within the DNC between the movers and shakers and the B-H campaign, with mega-donors throwing bottles at the stage like a that scene in Blues Brothers, well, that's going to do more to depress the betting line for Biden than anything else I can think of.
There's also the promised reveal of Trump's running mate. I am not certain when that's supposed to happen, maybe it was over this weekend. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump fold up that paper and put it back in his pocket. When the DNC, donors, and campaign people are in the Octagon, the smart thing to do is be quiet and let them have the spotlight.
There, those are the things that I think will move the betting odds the most in the short term. Middle term, the release of new polling, more than a week or two from the debate. Long term? That depends on who Trump's opponent is, which, in my mind, is still very up in the air.
Once you get past all the baked-in values, mostly attitudes about who is most likely to win, personal preferences, and the like, what's left on the margin in most election betting is IMHO reactions to news on those baked-in assumptions.
Take this post-debate cuisinart. Trump is frankly off the radar, as has been pointed out here and in a couple of articles. So he represents a fixed quantity. It's all-eyes-on-Biden time. This has been enhanced by a couple of things: the SCOTUS immunity decision, and the debate results. My take on these two items:
- the immunity case has definitely upset the various legal matters surrounding Trump. Now, all of the cases, including the NY convictions, must be re-examined to determine if the charges are for official acts or not. It would be pretty easy in the NY case to show they do not, but the requirement to reexamine them means more legal maneuvers by lawyers from both sides, which has the practical effect of delaying sentencing. Before, sentencing would have been four days before the RNC convention, now, it's delayed until mid-September, and might get further pushed back if appeals to the convictions succeed for the defense.
- Once you eliminate the legal front (since a lot of the action is on hold), the only thing that's newsworthy is Biden's situation. Not just the debate fallout, but Hunter goes on trial for tax issues in mid-July. That has to count as more negative news. Add in the Ohio deadline, and the civil war within the DNC between the movers and shakers and the B-H campaign, with mega-donors throwing bottles at the stage like a that scene in Blues Brothers, well, that's going to do more to depress the betting line for Biden than anything else I can think of.
There's also the promised reveal of Trump's running mate. I am not certain when that's supposed to happen, maybe it was over this weekend. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump fold up that paper and put it back in his pocket. When the DNC, donors, and campaign people are in the Octagon, the smart thing to do is be quiet and let them have the spotlight.
There, those are the things that I think will move the betting odds the most in the short term. Middle term, the release of new polling, more than a week or two from the debate. Long term? That depends on who Trump's opponent is, which, in my mind, is still very up in the air.
July 4th, 2024 at 10:30:29 AM
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Quote: gordonm888The arguments for going with Kamala are:
- the $90M in contributions can be readily transferred to her
- she is a black woman who is next in line, and it would be objectionable to the Democrat base to pass over her
The arguments for going with Michelle Obama are:
-Passing over Kamala to pick Michelle is not objectionable, because they are both black women
-Michelle Obama is leading Trump in the polls 50%-43%
Of course, Michelle Obama has made it clear previously that she has no interest in running for President.
This would be a great spectator sport if only there weren't so much at stake.
link to original post
I agree with this except the Obama rationale. It can easily backfire.
1) Yes Michele is extremely popular but black voters don't vote because of a woman's skin color. Replacing a black woman with another strongly makes it feel they aren't supporting candidates for any political reasons other than the person is black. They may very likely revolt at the same reasoning that Kamala is the proper choice and they don't want to feel the "well any black female" is fine" argument.
It will also strongly backfire by feeding the right the argument that Michelle isn't qualified and this is really just putting Barack back in office. They did that with Hillary but she actually did have senator and other political experiences all her own. With Michele that argument would be valid in my opinion.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 4th, 2024 at 10:43:08 AM
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Common sense solution
Keep the tix as is
Harris is running for President
Make it clear that Biden will resign after the election
Keep the tix as is
Harris is running for President
Make it clear that Biden will resign after the election
July 4th, 2024 at 11:53:35 AM
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Quote: terapinedCommon sense solution
Keep the tix as is
Harris is running for President
Make it clear that Biden will resign after the election
link to original post
That would look like a cheat.
Biden runs but they make it clear Kamala is prepared to take over IF he wins and chooses to resign. Even if they actually plan him resigning regardless they have to say the former.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 4th, 2024 at 12:05:58 PM
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Quote: darkozQuote: terapinedCommon sense solution
Keep the tix as is
Harris is running for President
Make it clear that Biden will resign after the election
link to original post
That would look like a cheat.
Biden runs but they make it clear Kamala is prepared to take over IF he wins and chooses to resign. Even if they actually plan him resigning regardless they have to say the former
link to original post
It's not cheating
This is how a ticket works
This is why our system has 2 people running instead of one
July 4th, 2024 at 12:10:26 PM
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No expert on campaign finance stuff, but if the Biden war chest can only be used for Biden/Harris, what happens to it if the ticket is Newsom/ Whitmer, as an example? They don’t give the money back, that’s for sure.
July 4th, 2024 at 12:17:35 PM
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Quote: terapinedQuote: darkozQuote: terapinedCommon sense solution
Keep the tix as is
Harris is running for President
Make it clear that Biden will resign after the election
link to original post
That would look like a cheat.
Biden runs but they make it clear Kamala is prepared to take over IF he wins and chooses to resign. Even if they actually plan him resigning regardless they have to say the former
link to original post
It's not cheating
This is how a ticket works
This is why our system has 2 people running instead of one
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I am saying if Biden outwardly says vote for me for President but don't worry because I PLAN to resign immediately after winning.
It would look like trying to fool the electorate.
As opposed to just saying now he is dropping out and Kamala is the ticket.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 4th, 2024 at 1:02:54 PM
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Quote: SOOPOONo expert on campaign finance stuff, but if the Biden war chest can only be used for Biden/Harris, what happens to it if the ticket is Newsom/ Whitmer, as an example? They don’t give the money back, that’s for sure.
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I heard on some media that it has to stay in place until the election is over. After that maybe used for general party funds? Not sure, just saying one thing I heard. I do know I have heard of campaigns that still have debt years later and collect funds to try to retire any bills.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
July 4th, 2024 at 10:39:35 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: EvenBobQuote: KeyserThe Predictit betting market for the dem nominee now has Kamala at 41 and Biden at only 40.
Will he be out tomorrow or by Friday?
I suspect Invoking the 25th amendment or resigning is on the table as well.
link to original post
Everyday since the debate Trump goes up and Biden goes down. Polymarket has Biden and Harris almost tied.
link to original post
In just 24 hours Kamala Harris has overtaken Biden on the betting sites. Things are moving very fast.
link to original post
Everyday the Harris lead in the betting odds over Biden grows bigger.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 7:45:56 AM
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Indeed, Biden's betting odds have been plummeting. Oddly enough, Trump's have only gone up a tiny bit since the debate and have basically stabilized at a point not much higher than they were before. The debate hurt Biden way more than it helped Trump.
July 5th, 2024 at 9:04:55 AM
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Quote: TigerWuIndeed, Biden's betting odds have been plummeting. Oddly enough, Trump's have only gone up a tiny bit since the debate and have basically stabilized at a point not much higher than they were before. The debate hurt Biden way more than it helped Trump.
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So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 9:38:50 AM
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He did. Or you can just read the graph if you understand that better than words.
July 5th, 2024 at 9:54:26 AM
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Quote: EvenBob
So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
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The graph clearly shows that Kamala Harris is now predicted to have a higher probability of being elected than President Biden. It's Trump vs (Biden or Harris or Newsom or Obama or etc.) If Biden survives the current crisis of confidence and is the Democrats' nominee, his odds of being elected would increase significantly.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 5th, 2024 at 10:31:46 AM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: EvenBob
So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
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The graph clearly shows that Kamala Harris is now predicted to have a higher probability of being elected than President Biden. It's Trump vs (Biden or Harris or Newsom or Obama or etc.) If Biden survives the current crisis of confidence and is the Democrats' nominee, his odds of being elected would increase significantly.
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Why would his odds of being elected increase, I don't understand. Why would people be willing to vote for him then when it looks like they're not willing to vote for him now. What's he going to do between now and then to get all this confidence back.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 10:31:52 AM
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Quote: EvenBob
So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
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I mean, it's pretty clear on the chart I posted. Trump's betting odds only went up a couple of percentage points after the debate, whereas Biden's plummeted by double digits.
July 5th, 2024 at 10:43:28 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888Quote: EvenBob
So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
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The graph clearly shows that Kamala Harris is now predicted to have a higher probability of being elected than President Biden. It's Trump vs (Biden or Harris or Newsom or Obama or etc.) If Biden survives the current crisis of confidence and is the Democrats' nominee, his odds of being elected would increase significantly.
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Why would his odds of being elected increase, I don't understand. Why would people be willing to vote for him then when it looks like they're not willing to vote for him now. What's he going to do between now and then to get all this confidence back.
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It’s a betting market, not a poll asking people who they would vote for.
But you already understand that even though you’re pretending you don’t.
July 5th, 2024 at 11:10:07 AM
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Quote: mcallister3200Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888Quote: EvenBob
So you think the betting odds for Biden going into the basement only hurts Biden? How does it not help Trump, I don't get your reasoning.
link to original post
The graph clearly shows that Kamala Harris is now predicted to have a higher probability of being elected than President Biden. It's Trump vs (Biden or Harris or Newsom or Obama or etc.) If Biden survives the current crisis of confidence and is the Democrats' nominee, his odds of being elected would increase significantly.
link to original post
Why would his odds of being elected increase, I don't understand. Why would people be willing to vote for him then when it looks like they're not willing to vote for him now. What's he going to do between now and then to get all this confidence back.
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It’s a betting market, not a poll asking people who they would vote for.
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That's why I asked why the odds of his being elected would increase. If it was a poll I would never ask about the odds. If Biden is the nominee why would his odds go up when he's the presumptive nominee now.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 11:14:58 AM
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All these polls were done after the debate. Some of them have trouble leading by six points nationally.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 11:27:21 AM
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Quote: EvenBobAll these polls were done after the debate. Some of them have trouble leading by six points nationally.
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That is a surprisingly close race considering how lopsided the betting odds are. Some of those are within the margin of error.
July 5th, 2024 at 11:32:38 AM
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Obviously punters who want to bet blue have decided that Harris is the only person who can realistically be summoned from the bullpen this late in the game. So they're now essentially betting that Biden won't make it to election day.
We'll have to see how this Biden ABC interview goes. The fact that it's not being done live, however, means it probably won't be assuaging many fears no matter how good he looks.
Should Harris take over, the attack ads against her will practically write themselves. First a clip of Biden at the debate followed by a clip of the Veep telling everyone that the president is as sharp as a tack. Brutal.
We'll have to see how this Biden ABC interview goes. The fact that it's not being done live, however, means it probably won't be assuaging many fears no matter how good he looks.
Should Harris take over, the attack ads against her will practically write themselves. First a clip of Biden at the debate followed by a clip of the Veep telling everyone that the president is as sharp as a tack. Brutal.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
July 5th, 2024 at 12:00:54 PM
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Will Joe Biden resign is now at 32 cents!
I predict that he resigns from the presidency by Mon evening or the 25th amendment is utilized by next Thursday.
I predict that he resigns from the presidency by Mon evening or the 25th amendment is utilized by next Thursday.
July 5th, 2024 at 12:57:06 PM
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Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobAll these polls were done after the debate. Some of them have trouble leading by six points nationally.
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That is a surprisingly close race considering how lopsided the betting odds are. Some of those are within the margin of error.
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Not surprising at all. As has been pointed out if Trump is even close on the national vote he's going to easily win the electoral votes which means he wins the election. That's what the odds are showing. If Trump wins the national election by 3% that would be a landslide. Trump lost the national vote in 2016 but he still won the election.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 5th, 2024 at 1:13:28 PM
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People will favor Biden if he comes out and does a 1 hour unscripted public question and answer, taking all questions. Right now he could probably get high ratings, and he can literally campaign there the whole time. No politician would pass up that opportunity, to get so many eyeballs on prime time to push their agenda.
And that is why, unless that happens, I don’t believe it’s realistic to bet on him staying in. What’s currently planned is not enough, IMO.
…of course, it needs to be a successful 1 hour.
And that is why, unless that happens, I don’t believe it’s realistic to bet on him staying in. What’s currently planned is not enough, IMO.
…of course, it needs to be a successful 1 hour.
Sanitized for Your Protection
July 5th, 2024 at 3:36:08 PM
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At its heart, this crisis is about a possible medical issue with Biden. Dr. Sanjay Gupta (CNN) has written a compelling article about the kinds of tests and evaluations that can be given to anyone to allow a diagnosis of their mental and neurological state. He says that Biden should be given these tests and that other neurologists agree with him.
Why does President Biden refuse to take these tests? Why won't he release the simple basic cognitive test results that his doctor should have administered as part of an annual checkup? I think it's ironic that everyone is looking at poll numbers rather than medical test results.
Why does President Biden refuse to take these tests? Why won't he release the simple basic cognitive test results that his doctor should have administered as part of an annual checkup? I think it's ironic that everyone is looking at poll numbers rather than medical test results.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 5th, 2024 at 7:47:46 PM
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Quote: gordonm888At its heart, this crisis is about a possible medical issue with Biden. Dr. Sanjay Gupta (CNN) has written a compelling article about the kinds of tests and evaluations that can be given to anyone to allow a diagnosis of their mental and neurological state. He says that Biden should be given these tests and that other neurologists agree with him.
Why does President Biden refuse to take these tests? Why won't he release the simple basic cognitive test results that his doctor should have administered as part of an annual checkup? I think it's ironic that everyone is looking at poll numbers rather than medical test results.
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Especially when Trump was required to take the cognitive test every year when he was president which he gladly did and the results were made public.. Joe Biden has never taken one of these tests that we know of. Why is that. I've taken several of those tests on my own just for fun and they are not hard at all. In fact they are quite silly and if you can't pass them you have something seriously wrong with you.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
