Election Betting
Quote: gordonm888At its heart, this crisis is about a possible medical issue with Biden. Dr. Sanjay Gupta (CNN) has written a compelling article about the kinds of tests and evaluations that can be given to anyone to allow a diagnosis of their mental and neurological state. He says that Biden should be given these tests and that other neurologists agree with him.
Why does President Biden refuse to take these tests? Why won't he release the simple basic cognitive test results that his doctor should have administered as part of an annual checkup? I think it's ironic that everyone is looking at poll numbers rather than medical test results.
link to original post
Nothing ironic about it, this is the world we live in.
Meanwhile, Congress returns and the blue team has some tough decisions to make. Will history be made this week?
Quote: GialmereThe RCP betting odds average shows Biden is back on top of Harris.
Meanwhile, Congress returns and the blue team has some tough decisions to make. Will history be made this week?
link to original post
You should be careful how you phrase that first sentence, especially with respect to any resident of the White House…!
Quote: GialmereThe RCP betting odds average shows Biden is back on top of Harris.
link to original post
Dude the visuals, the visuals. Now I can't get that out of my head. Ugh..
Quote: GialmereJoe Biden sent out an open letter this morning announcing that he’s not going anywhere and that the Democrat party needs to get over it and embrace his candidacy. So the play goes to Congress. Do they fold, call or raise 25?
link to original post
Legally not a ton they can do. Practical terms even less.
The latest example I can think of is LBJ dropping out in March of 1968, and of course Nixon won that year.
Quote: DeucekiesPerhaps there are historians in this thread who know the answer to this. What are some examples of candidates dropping out or being removed and being replaced late in the election cycle, and how did the party do?
The latest example I can think of is LBJ dropping out in March of 1968, and of course Nixon won that year.
link to original post
Not sure when Truman dropped out. Also late comes far earlier now though we are now late. I think before primaries it mattered far less.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: DeucekiesPerhaps there are historians in this thread who know the answer to this. What are some examples of candidates dropping out or being removed and being replaced late in the election cycle, and how did the party do?
The latest example I can think of is LBJ dropping out in March of 1968, and of course Nixon won that year.
link to original post
Not sure when Truman dropped out. Also late comes far earlier now though we are now late. I think before primaries it mattered far less.
link to original post
Both Truman and Johnson dropped out and both their parties lost to the Republicans. Teddy Roosevelt did not run for a second term and the other party won.
Quote: DeucekiesPerhaps there are historians in this thread who know the answer to this. What are some examples of candidates dropping out or being removed and being replaced late in the election cycle, and how did the party do?
The latest example I can think of is LBJ dropping out in March of 1968, and of course Nixon won that year.
link to original post
LBJ went all in on the Vietnam War and it didn’t go so well, and Nixon was promising to end it. All the particular events at the time likely matter. I don’t know if dropping out means anything at all by itself, until you attach it to something.
Biden got 56.88% of the vote in 2020.
Trump got 56.51% of the vote in 2016.
Obama got 61.71% and 67.84% in his two terms.
Bush Jr. got 50.47% and 53.16%.
Clinton got 68.77% and 70.45%.
Quote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com currently has the Electoral College results at 312 to 226 in favor of Trump. That would be 57.99% of the total electoral vote.
Biden got 56.88% of the vote in 2020.
Trump got 56.51% of the vote in 2016.
Obama got 61.71% and 67.84% in his two terms.
Bush Jr. got 50.47% and 53.16%.
Clinton got 68.77% and 70.45%.
link to original post
Meaningless. You quoted where Trump is 4 months before the election where were all these other people four months before the election. You can't compare where Trump is now to where everybody else ended up.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com currently has the Electoral College results at 312 to 226 in favor of Trump. That would be 57.99% of the total electoral vote.
Biden got 56.88% of the vote in 2020.
Trump got 56.51% of the vote in 2016.
Obama got 61.71% and 67.84% in his two terms.
Bush Jr. got 50.47% and 53.16%.
Clinton got 68.77% and 70.45%.
link to original post
Meaningless. You quoted where Trump is 4 months before the election where were all these other people four months before the election. You can't compare where Trump is now to where everybody else ended up.
link to original post
No duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
The IMPLICATION, SINCE THIS ENTIRE THREAD IS ABOUT PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF AN ELECTION, is that IF the numbers we see today are the FINAL numbers AS PREDICTED by the bookies, that's where Trump would end up, IN THEORY. Obviously, those numbers are likely to change. Literally no one is saying that's what the final tally is going to be. Don't comment if you don't understand what's going on.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com currently has the Electoral College results at 312 to 226 in favor of Trump. That would be 57.99% of the total electoral vote.
Biden got 56.88% of the vote in 2020.
Trump got 56.51% of the vote in 2016.
Obama got 61.71% and 67.84% in his two terms.
Bush Jr. got 50.47% and 53.16%.
Clinton got 68.77% and 70.45%.
link to original post
Meaningless. You quoted where Trump is 4 months before the election where were all these other people four months before the election. You can't compare where Trump is now to where everybody else ended up.
link to original post
No duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
The IMPLICATION, SINCE THIS ENTIRE THREAD IS ABOUT PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF AN ELECTION, is that IF the numbers we see today are the FINAL numbers AS PREDICTED by the bookies, that's where Trump would end up, IN THEORY. Obviously, those numbers are likely to change. Literally no one is saying that's what the final tally is going to be. Don't comment if you don't understand what's going on.
link to original post
So you think comparing apples to oranges gives you a good prediction. Good luck with that. Right now we don't even know who the Democrat nominee is going to be for sure. Seen the news lately?
There are 118 days until the election. If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days. Let's stick to polls, probabilities and analysis and leave the gloating and trash talk to high-schoolers.
Quote: gordonm888If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days.
link to original post
I agree 100%, that's what I was trying to tell EB, but if he can't take it, he shouldn't dish it out.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: gordonm888If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days.
link to original post
I agree 100%, that's what I was trying to tell EB, but if he can't take it, he shouldn't dish it out.
link to original post
LOL, whatever..
Quote: gordonm888There are 118 days until the election. If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days.
if Biden dropped out and Kamala became the nominee - that could make a big difference
in 2016 although Hilary lost due to the Electoral College she beat Trump in the popular vote - 65,853,514 to Trump's 62,984,828
from my point of view Kamala would be a much, much more impressive and exciting candidate than Hilary was -
but will it happen____? - right now it looks unlikely - but who knows____?
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: gordonm888There are 118 days until the election. If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days.
if Biden dropped out and Kamala became the nominee - that could make a big difference
in 2016 although Hilary lost due to the Electoral College she beat Trump in the popular vote - 65,853,514 to Trump's 62,984,828
from my point of view Kamala would be a much, much more impressive and exciting candidate than Hilary was -
but will it happen____? - right now it looks unlikely - but who knows____?
.
link to original post
From what I have been reading Biden would pretty much have to withdraw this week if he is going to or it will demolish the Democratic ticket.
Political experts suggest that Democrats might be stuck with Biden for three reasons: the challenge of replacing him on 50 state ballots, the challenge of moving money behind a new candidate, and the challenge of finding a candidate who would likely be a sacrificial lamb to run in his place.
Harris, who has significant support, is the only person who can realistically navigate them. Yet, each day that passes makes the challenges harder to overcome. Biden still has majority support in the party so the Veep will no doubt remain loyal (for now).
Meanwhile, Trump has hit a new high on the RCP betting average at 57.7%. And, with Harris action dropping back down, Biden has almost made it back to the 20s with a 19.7 rating.
Over on Fivethirtyeight, 53.4% of people have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 56.8% have an unfavorable view of Biden.
Fivethirtyeight also currently has Trump polling at 42.1%, and Biden at 39.9%.
And I still say Biden is secretly planning to step down if he wins, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: gordonm888There are 118 days until the election. If you look at everything that has happened in the last 118 days, you must realize how much can happen in the next 118 days.
if Biden dropped out and Kamala became the nominee - that could make a big difference
in 2016 although Hilary lost due to the Electoral College she beat Trump in the popular vote - 65,853,514 to Trump's 62,984,828
from my point of view Kamala would be a much, much more impressive and exciting candidate than Hilary was -
but will it happen____? - right now it looks unlikely - but who knows____?
.
link to original post
Take out CA and that lead is gone. Meaning all that support is really concentrated. IOW, don't count on her doing much in the EC. Remember how early the woman dropped out of the race in 2020? She is simply not liked by the masses.
Quote: GialmereIt sure looks like the blue anti Biden faction is folding its hand. A meeting that was held by party leaders early today is being described by participants as having a funeral atmosphere. There were many grievances aired but neither a magic solution nor a consensus arrived at. Just sadness.
Political experts suggest that Democrats might be stuck with Biden for three reasons: the challenge of replacing him on 50 state ballots, the challenge of moving money behind a new candidate, and the challenge of finding a candidate who would likely be a sacrificial lamb to run in his place.
Harris, who has significant support, is the only person who can realistically navigate them. Yet, each day that passes makes the challenges harder to overcome. Biden still has majority support in the party so the Veep will no doubt remain loyal (for now).
Meanwhile, Trump has hit a new high on the RCP betting average at 57.7%. And, with Harris action dropping back down, Biden has almost made it back to the 20s with a 19.7 rating.
link to original post
Common sense is to leave the ticket alone and promote Harris
This is why we have a ticket instead of one person running
Biden should camp in the basement
All political ads need to promote Harris
The convention needs to rally around Harris and the current ticket
Quote: mcallister3200Take out Texas and…..people look at things how they want.
link to original post
Well? And what?
The point is that the "she won the popular vote" was due to only the largest state. When you measure more broadly she was not so much. This is why the EC was put in place in the first place except back then it was VA and NY who might make such a swing. Democrat Party support is really concentrated on the coasts, especially the west coast. Math wise it means that all a Hillary does is keep the large margins in the places already locked in. They need someone with broader support.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: mcallister3200Take out Texas and…..people look at things how they want.
link to original post
Well? And what?
The point is that the "she won the popular vote" was due to only the largest state. When you measure more broadly she was not so much.
link to original post
Only 13% of Hillary's popular vote count came from California. That means 77% came from the rest of the country. Furthermore, the population of California in 2016 was almost 12% of the US population at the time, so her popular vote tally in California is almost exactly proportional to the total population of the US.
Those numbers seem like pretty broad support to me.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: mcallister3200Take out Texas and…..people look at things how they want.
link to original post
Well? And what?
The point is that the "she won the popular vote" was due to only the largest state. When you measure more broadly she was not so much.
link to original post
Only 13% of Hillary's popular vote count came from California. That means 77% came from the rest of the country. Furthermore, the population of California in 2016 was almost 12% of the US population at the time, so her popular vote tally in California is almost exactly proportional to the total population of the US.
Those numbers seem like pretty broad support to me.
link to original post
Her entire popular vote margin came from CA. Meaning saying that she would do well elsewhere has no basis. She is a tie elsewhere at best. That is math.
12% of the USA gave her 13% of her vote means in CA she did about 8% better there than at-large. That is a huge amount.
Quote: AZDuffman
Her entire popular vote margin came from CA.
This doesn't even make sense when it comes to the popular vote....you have no idea what you're talking about. Her popular vote margin was just over 2.8 million votes. Those votes could have come from anywhere. If you take out New York and Illinois her popular vote margin is gone, too. If you take out X number of counties from X number of states her popular vote margin is gone there, too. You don't pick and choose states when it comes to the popular vote, that defeats the whole purpose of it...LOL
This has nothing to do with this election, or even betting odds in general. Why did you even bring it up?
Quote: TigerWuNo duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
link to original post
Personal insult. Three days.
Quote: WizardQuote: TigerWuNo duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
link to original post
Personal insult. Three days.
link to original post
Wasn't Sherlock Holmes supposed to be very smart?
Quote: darkozQuote: WizardQuote: TigerWuNo duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
link to original post
Personal insult. Three days.
link to original post
Wasn't Sherlock Holmes supposed to be very smart?
link to original post
He’d deny it but the only plausible explanation is EB PM’d him about it….not likely Wiz would even show up in the thread without it.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: darkozQuote: WizardQuote: TigerWuNo duh, Sherlock. Way to miss the entire ****ing point.
link to original post
Personal insult. Three days.
link to original post
Wasn't Sherlock Holmes supposed to be very smart?
link to original post
He’d deny it but the only plausible explanation is EB PM’d him about it….not likely Wiz would even show up in the thread without it.
link to original post
I absolutely deny that I did that and Mike will back me up.
Quote: EvenBobI absolutely deny that I did that and Mike will back me up.
link to original post
I confirm that.
Quote: EvenBobHoly crap. The odds just changed. George Clooney dumped Joe Biden and because he's the head of Hollywood fundraising this means Hollywood has dumped him. This means he's toast. This means it's hello Kamala.
link to original post
I saw a YT thumbnail on that but didn't bother.
Donors to hold $90 million in pledges if Biden remains on ticket: New York Times
Quote: ChumpChangeThe oligarchs have hacked the race.
Donors to hold $90 million in pledges if Biden remains on ticket: New York Times
The "noise" we are hearing is impressive for July. Things should be very quiet until the conventions. And then the other side usually goes dark taking the week off for the most part. Debates before September unheard of. Currently 115 days out. Make that 113 since the weekend will probably fly by with nothing happening. Realistically the Democrats might have to decide if they might as well tank and hope for some kind of disaster like a recession or WWIII.
The big risk per Dick Morris and others is if they take a wipeout they may be in the woods for a decade as that is what happens with a huge defeat. They also still seem to be suffering from bench depletion during the Obama years. GOP not doing a lot better bench wise but at least 1-2 rising stars there.
So the polls will be the news for another month, until the Olympics drive them from the front pages.
Quote: DRichDoes anyone really think there is a Democratic candidate that could get more votes than Biden at this late stage? I doubt there is so keeping Biden is probably the best chance for the Democrats even if it doesn't look very good.
link to original post
I think ANY Democrat candidate, if announced today, with full support from the party, would get more votes than Biden, who has numerous Democrat Senators, Congressmen, aides, donors, etc.. publicly calling for him to drop out.
As far as the betting odds, it seems like Biden has gone all in on not dropping out. I’d bet on him being the nominee.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichDoes anyone really think there is a Democratic candidate that could get more votes than Biden at this late stage? I doubt there is so keeping Biden is probably the best chance for the Democrats even if it doesn't look very good.
link to original post
I think ANY Democrat candidate, if announced today, with full support from the party, would get more votes than Biden, who has numerous Democrat Senators, Congressmen, aides, donors, etc.. publicly calling for him to drop out.
As far as the betting odds, it seems like Biden has gone all in on not dropping out. I’d bet on him being the nominee.
link to original post
Probably correct. The total Democrat Party message is "our candidate is not Trump." Does Biden even have a theme yet? I have seen just a few commercials for him but they are really simple fluff, no "Yes, we can" or "Make America Great Again" type stuff, One can like or not like either of those, but they did deliver a message.
OTOH, a late change really shows weakness. Like taking 4 cards in draw poker. You can bet big after but the table knows you previously had the weakest hand.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichDoes anyone really think there is a Democratic candidate that could get more votes than Biden at this late stage? I doubt there is so keeping Biden is probably the best chance for the Democrats even if it doesn't look very good.
link to original post
I think ANY Democrat candidate, if announced today, with full support from the party, would get more votes than Biden, who has numerous Democrat Senators, Congressmen, aides, donors, etc.. publicly calling for him to drop out.
As far as the betting odds, it seems like Biden has gone all in on not dropping out. I’d bet on him being the nominee.
link to original post
Probably correct. The total Democrat Party message is "our candidate is not Trump." Does Biden even have a theme yet? I have seen just a few commercials for him but they are really simple fluff, no "Yes, we can" or "Make America Great Again" type stuff, One can like or not like either of those, but they did deliver a message.
OTOH, a late change really shows weakness. Like taking 4 cards in draw poker. You can bet big after but the table knows you previously had the weakest hand.
link to original post
"Yes we can" and "make America great again" is pretty much fluff.
What exactly is the message from those? What policies do they even represent? If people are voting for a slogan then it's perfect. If they are voting for a purpose, then not so perfect.
."Make America Great Again" sounds awfully good... unless when America was great your people were segregated or enslaved or being shipped off to Vietnam or heavily incarcerated. Which time period was America great again?
Trump Ally Exposed for Horrific Hit List of Political Enemies
Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “secretary of retribution” is even more bloodthirsty than the former president.
https://newrepublic.com/post/183652/trump-ally-exposed-horrific-hit-list-political-enemies
If there's no Constitution, the sheriffs don't have to follow the law as we know it anymore.
The names on the hit list were to be submitted to Elon Musk so he could hand over the DMs of everybody on the list for further evidence of disloyalty to Trump.
All I've got to say to that is delete your X accounts now! Facebook too.
UNREAL!! Meta Removes All Restrictions on Trump’s Account After Former President Threatens Zuckerberg with Prison
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/meta-removes-all-restrictions-on-trumps-account-after-former-president-threatens-zuckerberg-with-prison/
The decision by Meta comes days after Trump vowed on Truth Social to send Mark Zuckerberg to prison if he is reelected for election fraud.
“They have no shame! All I can say is that if I’m elected President, we will pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” Trump told his followers.
RT: FB really did hire a conservative group (The Dispatch) to “fact check” and they are specifically targeting & suppressing Project 2025 posts. This is insane. Like absolutely madness.
RT: They're also actively suppressing organizing efforts. Just today I've found these two posts, on other people's threads, hidden by Threads. One American, one Canadian.
Quote: SOOPOO
I think ANY Democrat candidate, if announced today, with full support from the party, would get more votes than Biden, who has numerous Democrat Senators, Congressmen, aides, donors, etc.. publicly calling for him to drop out.
Wow, I don't see that at all.
Quote: ChumpChangeWill Trump be too busy golfing to run a bloodthirsty fascist dictatorship?
Trump Ally Exposed for Horrific Hit List of Political Enemies
Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “secretary of retribution” is even more bloodthirsty than the former president.
https://newrepublic.com/post/183652/trump-ally-exposed-horrific-hit-list-political-enemies
If there's no Constitution, the sheriffs don't have to follow the law as we know it anymore.
The names on the hit list were to be submitted to Elon Musk so he could hand over the DMs of everybody on the list for further evidence of disloyalty to Trump.
All I've got to say to that is delete your X accounts now! Facebook too.
UNREAL!! Meta Removes All Restrictions on Trump’s Account After Former President Threatens Zuckerberg with Prison
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/meta-removes-all-restrictions-on-trumps-account-after-former-president-threatens-zuckerberg-with-prison/
The decision by Meta comes days after Trump vowed on Truth Social to send Mark Zuckerberg to prison if he is reelected for election fraud.
“They have no shame! All I can say is that if I’m elected President, we will pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” Trump told his followers.
RT: FB really did hire a conservative group (The Dispatch) to “fact check” and they are specifically targeting & suppressing Project 2025 posts. This is insane. Like absolutely madness.
RT: They're also actively suppressing organizing efforts. Just today I've found these two posts, on other people's threads, hidden by Threads. One American, one Canadian.
link to original post
7 days for partisan political speech. This wasn't even close.
