Bill Zender's take on Dice Control

Quote: Wizard

Quote: lilredrooster

and I've just added 39 more words - why____? - I couldn't say - it's a subject that just won't go away
.
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A man's word is important. Newcomers may come along who don't know about Alan's 18 consecutive yo's claim. Now he is making claims about dice influence (DI). I think that in considering the credibility of Alan's statements on DI, one should also consider them in light of the 18 yo's. I'm not saying anything about Alan's credibility directly, but asking the reader to draw his own conclusions. I just state the facts. Meanwhile, I try to not be a troll by making said reminders only from time to time, when Alan makes new claims, especially about craps.

If Alan were to say that perhaps he remembered the incident incorrectly, maybe confusing the number of yo's with the probability of each one (1 in 18), I'd be happy to drop it. Memories are very fallible.
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Quote: AlanMendelson

And this question keeps coming up: why didnt I bet on the 11? Because who would think another 11 woukd be thrown. The more 11s that were thrown the less likely another would be thrown.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exactly what did I claim about DI ?? Copy and paste it.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it. I was lucky being at a table at 5 in the morning when a DI didnt want any attention. Made his hit and run.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I dont care what your odds say.

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

And this question keeps coming up: why didnt I bet on the 11? Because who would think another 11 woukd be thrown. The more 11s that were thrown the less likely another would be thrown.

Well said again. Your logic is that yo's are less likely to be thrown immediately after several were thrown. There's a term for this: gambler's fallacy. Dice have no memory man

PS Why didn't you "lay the 11" ?
link to original post

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

And this question keeps coming up: why didnt I bet on the 11? Because who would think another 11 woukd be thrown. The more 11s that were thrown the less likely another would be thrown.

Well said. Your logic is that yo's are less likely to be thrown immediately after several were thrown. There's a term for this: gambler's fallacy.

Dice have no memory, man

PS Why didn't you "lay the 11", knowing that that the probability of an 11 being rolled had been reduced temporarily?
link to original post

Quote: tuttigym

Does one "lay the 11" on the felt that is "labeled YO" you know right next to the "Big Red" label?

Isn't that a J O post? There you go Ace leading the way.

tuttigym
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Quote: MrV

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exactly what did I claim about DI ?? Copy and paste it.

'K.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it. I was lucky being at a table at 5 in the morning when a DI didnt want any attention. Made his hit and run.

You clearly claim it is a skill and that you observed the skill being used in a casino.

Dude, I fear your memory is shot...you only recently posted this yet you forgot?
link to original post

Quote: Ace2

Laying the 11 is an expert play.

Quote: ChumpChange

Playing Bubble Craps and I just lost a DP bet, but I had a Come bet number up because I replaced a losing DC bet earlier. I forgot to make a line bet, so the machine just started rolling the dice on its own. I was the only one at the table. I walked around the machine to see if any other player was indicated as the shooter and they usually have less than a dollar left on the machine so I cash them out, but every seat had no credits left on the machine and no blinking button indicating they are the shooter. So the machine is shaking the dice for about 3 seconds then it pops the dice up automatically. It will keep doing that until either the PL point is made or a 7-out. So I couldn't hit the button to make it shoot the dice during this round. Just a glitch in the system. So don't think walking away from the machine for 5 minutes with one bet up and no line bet will stop the machine.

I had a Hot Shooter moment when I first sat down and won a bit. But the next 2 hours was a losing streak, one way or another. I lost 5 pairs of bets due to 7-outs, had another Hot Shooter moment and got back to even, then lost another 5 pairs of bets to quick 7-outs. I switched to DP strategies and lost another 5 pairs of bets. I switched up to the PL again and lost another 5 pairs of bets. I won a few bets before I left, so I'm down almost 15 pairs of bets from my peak balance.

I'm guessing if I don't cash in my TITO I'll be on the same session when I get back, but I'll be betting differently.

I rolled six 4's on one turn but I wasn't betting on it and if I was, I'd be trying for it and would have missed hitting the 4. It's a throwaway number while I'm taking a swing and a miss at another number.
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Quote: ChumpChange

I suppose when I get a larger session money amount, I could bet on more numbers than 2 of them. If I'm betting $60 on the PL and $100 on the odds for the 6 or 8, I might put up $140 of bets amongst the other 5 numbers, or I could just put up $70 on each of the 5 & 9. So if I did the latter and kept trying to hit my line bet or the 5 & 9, but I kept rolling 4's and it wasn't the point, it's a throwaway number. The machine puts me on a 15 second timer to push the button and sometimes I just don't push it because the machine tumbling the dice around doesn't show the numbers I want face up for more than a half a second, so the machine automatically tosses the dice at 15 seconds. If the dice are showing a 7 face up for 12 out of 15 seconds while tumbling around, all I can do is breathe a sigh of relief when it auto-tosses and anything but a 7 winds up as the result. Or I'll hit the button a few seconds before time's up so the dice will not be a 7 face up at the 15 seconds of shaking mark. I don't really care what number is the result but it will be luck if my number wins, if I wasn't trying for it. When it takes 15 rolls to make my point, I think the shaking mechanism is giving me the absolute runaround. It does change speeds when shaking the dice but it's not necessarily noticeable until it's annoying.

I notice the $15 craps table is usually full when it's open and there's more spots open on the $25 table. So I'll have to win enough on Bubble Craps to get to a table that has a spot open. There I won't be battling tumbling dice under the influence of a shaker, but other shooters may or may not be any good.

I have gotten a few astonished compliments from other players at the Bubble Craps machine after I was a Hot Shooter for a turn. I expect about 1 Hot Shooter moment per hour for myself on the machine, but it has happened that there's been 3 Hot Shooters in a row as soon as I sit down so that puts me way ahead if I'm not betting too little.
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• I have witnessed dies landing atop one another. Twice. Different tables in different casinos.
• I have witnessed one shooter (stick right) who had the softest legal throw I've ever seen, land nine 9s in a 12-throw stretch, then take off, never to be seen again.
• I have witnessed two women, at opposite ends of the same table, both wearing floor-length dresses, each have both dice leave the table, and hit them right in their décolletage. (one freaked out until her boyfriend plucked them out, the other had to shake them all the way down the inside of their dress until they fell out on the floor)
• I have seen a shooter deliberately damage the dice during a throw. They were tackled by security.
• In my life I have had about a dozen rolls lasting 45+ minutes.
• I nearly always have one roll that lasts 15+ rolls when I play.
• While I have no faith in my ability to influence dice, the fact that I cannot do something does not mean it's not possible for others to do so. Browse through any collection of <Some Country's> Got Talent, and you will find folks who can exert amazing control over physical objects.
• As for astronomical odds, the half-life of a radioactive element is directly related to how likely it is that a given kind of decay will happen. Bismuth used to be a considered a stable element—it's used in Pepto-Bismol!—and it took until 2003 (over a century) for it to be observed to decay. It has a half-life of 2.01×10^19 years, about five orders of magnitude less than the quoted odds by Wizard. Tellurium-128 has a half-life of 2.2×10^24 years, which is one order of magnitude more than Wiz's odds, and yet its decay was observed by scientists. Just because something is exceptionally improbable does not mean it cannot happen.

Quote: BillHasRetired

I'll be at the craps table at Cherokee in a few days, where I will, once again, attempt to loft the dice, have them rotate in step with each other, land flat on the felt, rebound, and lightly kiss the back wall at the end. I know I won't throw for three hours, but anything over about 20 minutes is golden. It will be another session in a career stretching back to 1987, when I first discovered the game.

What have I learned in 35 years of play? Other than all the odds of all the possible plays? That the dice have no memory, but humans do, and quite often bet accordingly? Or that things with astronomically high odds against them, can sometimes occur, and be witnessed? Biggest of all: that anything can happen at a craps table.

• I have witnessed dies landing atop one another. Twice. Different tables in different casinos.
• I have witnessed one shooter (stick right) who had the softest legal throw I've ever seen, land nine 9s in a 12-throw stretch, then take off, never to be seen again.
• I have witnessed two women, at opposite ends of the same table, both wearing floor-length dresses, each have both dice leave the table, and hit them right in their décolletage. (one freaked out until her boyfriend plucked them out, the other had to shake them all the way down the inside of their dress until they fell out on the floor)
• I have seen a shooter deliberately damage the dice during a throw. They were tackled by security.
• In my life I have had about a dozen rolls lasting 45+ minutes.
• I nearly always have one roll that lasts 15+ rolls when I play.
• While I have no faith in my ability to influence dice, the fact that I cannot do something does not mean it's not possible for others to do so. Browse through any collection of <Some Country's> Got Talent, and you will find folks who can exert amazing control over physical objects.
• As for astronomical odds, the half-life of a radioactive element is directly related to how likely it is that a given kind of decay will happen. Bismuth used to be a considered a stable element—it's used in Pepto-Bismol!—and it took until 2003 (over a century) for it to be observed to decay. It has a half-life of 2.01×10^19 years, about five orders of magnitude less than the quoted odds by Wizard. Tellurium-128 has a half-life of 2.2×10^24 years, which is one order of magnitude more than Wiz's odds, and yet its decay was observed by scientists. Just because something is exceptionally improbable does not mean it cannot happen.

Do I believe DI is possible? Depends on the shooter. I have no doubt that a monomaniacal shooter, practicing hours every day, on a rig that duplicates casino conditions, could acquire the degree of skill that allows for some influence over dice. That shooter is not me. But dice setting and such do calm me, and I sure as hell try not to roll a seven. But I am under no illusions. I throw not because I'm very good at it. I throw because craps is the only game in the entire casino where the player is allowed to physically interact with the randomizer, in this case, the dice.

Do I believe DI shooters are common? No. Pulling figures from the air, I think there might be 100 or less shooters who have the skill and concentration to decrease their seven-to-rolls ratio enough to gain an edge on the casino. I might have run across one in the 9-9s situation. In any case, he shot and split.

I have no doubt that I will be assailed by other posters. To them, I say, sure, get it out of your system. See you at the tables, where I'll just sip my whisky, cheer the hot shooters, curse the darksiders, and generally have a good time. Life is too short. Really, it is. Especially when you're afraid you're seeing a pale horse on the horizon.

(ETA: Tellurium half-life, plus small rewording to add clarity)
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Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it.

And yet, you think math experts should put their time and effort into somthing like this.

AlanMendelson
Joined:Oct 5, 2011Threads: 151Posts: 5107July 16th, 2022 at 2:03:47 AMpermalink
If the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
link to original post

Hell no. I want all of you to keep saying it's impossible. That will keep the pressure off of those of us who try our hand at it.

I recently posted about how a casino in Wendover does not allow setting.

If too many people start saying DI works more casinos will ban dice setting.

Please. Please. Please. Keep posting DI can't possibly work.
link to original post

Quote: camapl

Quote: BillHasRetired

I'll be at the craps table at Cherokee in a few days, where I will, once again, attempt to loft the dice, have them rotate in step with each other, land flat on the felt, rebound, and lightly kiss the back wall at the end. I know I won't throw for three hours, but anything over about 20 minutes is golden. It will be another session in a career stretching back to 1987, when I first discovered the game.

What have I learned in 35 years of play? Other than all the odds of all the possible plays? That the dice have no memory, but humans do, and quite often bet accordingly? Or that things with astronomically high odds against them, can sometimes occur, and be witnessed? Biggest of all: that anything can happen at a craps table.

• I have witnessed dies landing atop one another. Twice. Different tables in different casinos.
• I have witnessed one shooter (stick right) who had the softest legal throw I've ever seen, land nine 9s in a 12-throw stretch, then take off, never to be seen again.
• I have witnessed two women, at opposite ends of the same table, both wearing floor-length dresses, each have both dice leave the table, and hit them right in their décolletage. (one freaked out until her boyfriend plucked them out, the other had to shake them all the way down the inside of their dress until they fell out on the floor)
• I have seen a shooter deliberately damage the dice during a throw. They were tackled by security.
• In my life I have had about a dozen rolls lasting 45+ minutes.
• I nearly always have one roll that lasts 15+ rolls when I play.
• While I have no faith in my ability to influence dice, the fact that I cannot do something does not mean it's not possible for others to do so. Browse through any collection of <Some Country's> Got Talent, and you will find folks who can exert amazing control over physical objects.
• As for astronomical odds, the half-life of a radioactive element is directly related to how likely it is that a given kind of decay will happen. Bismuth used to be a considered a stable element—it's used in Pepto-Bismol!—and it took until 2003 (over a century) for it to be observed to decay. It has a half-life of 2.01×10^19 years, about five orders of magnitude less than the quoted odds by Wizard. Tellurium-128 has a half-life of 2.2×10^24 years, which is one order of magnitude more than Wiz's odds, and yet its decay was observed by scientists. Just because something is exceptionally improbable does not mean it cannot happen.

Do I believe DI is possible? Depends on the shooter. I have no doubt that a monomaniacal shooter, practicing hours every day, on a rig that duplicates casino conditions, could acquire the degree of skill that allows for some influence over dice. That shooter is not me. But dice setting and such do calm me, and I sure as hell try not to roll a seven. But I am under no illusions. I throw not because I'm very good at it. I throw because craps is the only game in the entire casino where the player is allowed to physically interact with the randomizer, in this case, the dice.

Do I believe DI shooters are common? No. Pulling figures from the air, I think there might be 100 or less shooters who have the skill and concentration to decrease their seven-to-rolls ratio enough to gain an edge on the casino. I might have run across one in the 9-9s situation. In any case, he shot and split.

I have no doubt that I will be assailed by other posters. To them, I say, sure, get it out of your system. See you at the tables, where I'll just sip my whisky, cheer the hot shooters, curse the darksiders, and generally have a good time. Life is too short. Really, it is. Especially when you're afraid you're seeing a pale horse on the horizon.

(ETA: Tellurium half-life, plus small rewording to add clarity)
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Now THAT is how you hold math accountable!
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Quote: BillHasRetired

there is at least one--that guy who shot nine nines during a twelve-roll turn. How many are there for sure? BTSOOM--Beats The Snot Out Of Me.

And just so we're talking about the same thing: to me, DI is a subtle thing. It's not the ability to roll a given number on demand.
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Quote: BillHasRetired

Thank you for your replies, Camapl, unJon, and Tuttigym. I appreciate your kind words.

AxelWolf, I am purely guessing at 100 or less skilled DIs. There could be zero, I believe (that is, conviction without proof) that there is at least one--that guy who shot nine nines during a twelve-roll turn. How many are there for sure? BTSOOM--Beats The Snot Out Of Me.

And just so we're talking about the same thing: to me, DI is a subtle thing. It's not the ability to roll a given number on demand. It's more the ability to, primarily, avoid the seven. The closer to 6 the SRR is, the more trials are required to prove it exists. I suspect the ones that can improve their SRR enough to make craps a positive expectation game could not prove their control without tens of thousands of rolls.

I do know that if I put the time and effort into learning DI skill, I would want that skill to pay me back for as long as humanly possible. So I'd adopt the mosquito approach--just a little sip of blood now and then. Pull about a thou out of a group of casinos per week, and give them time to forget me in the meantime before I show up there again.

Anyway, I typed about three times as much as I'm posting, because life is short. You and I are free to believe what we want, AxelWolf, and if we're ever on the same table, I'd still buy you a drink. Cheers!
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Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

If the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
link to original post

You don't have to be a math guy to realize DI doesn't work. Just use some simple logic, do some research, and watch some slow-mo videos. Even when dice are thrown at a much shorter distance when using a mechanical contraption, you can't gain an advantage.... now enter real-world conditions.

It's been over 20 years and we haven't seen any legit evidence DI can gain an advantage in a real-world setting.

Let's just say for a second that it's technically possible. It's also possible for some humans to run over 26 mph but most of the population will never be able to achieve that feat no matter how hard they try.
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I agree although that brings up a can of worms.

There are videos of the fastest gun draw. You can't even see the draw. The gun comes out the holster, shoots, hits the target and replaced back in the holster so fast you see nothing except the target (usually a can or a balloon) is no more.

Now most of the population of the earth wouldn't be able to ever achieve this feat.

However can one say such a move is impossible? It's absolutely possible.

Which brings us back to DI. Is it impossible or simply so difficult only a tiny sliver of the population could ever achieve it?
link to original post

I don't know if a tiny sliver of the population can achieve an ever so slight advantage VIA DI or not. If they could, it's not worth the time and effort. The variance would be too high and the earn would be too small.

I know much more about DI than I would like to admit. In the infancy of DI (then known as Dice control) even before most anyone had ever heard of the Dominator, I gave it a whirl. I was very skeptical, but since someome who I respected said it was possible(they have since backtracked), I experimented.

I didn't just experiment with some half-assed small-time crackerjack tossing box rig... No, No, I helped invest in an exact replica of a craps table from a major stip casino, it was an extra table originally made for that casino.

We practiced and used tracking software. All but one person eventually gave up on the DI aspect.

During this time All kinds of crazy theories popped up when looking at the stats, including the fact that each person had their own special toss numbers they were hitting. I was soon convinced it didn't work.
Even if it was remotely possible, it wasn't worth the time and effort since the edge would be way too thin and the conditions were always changing.

Quote:

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memories on this forum.

A few months ago there was the European research that proved dice setting had a small advantage.

That research was thoroughly discussed here.
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memories on this forum.

A few months ago there was the European research that proved dice setting had a small advantage.

That research was thoroughly discussed here.
link to original post

Not in real casino conditions.
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it.

And yet, you think math experts should put their time and effort into somthing like this.

AlanMendelson
Joined:Oct 5, 2011Threads: 151Posts: 5107July 16th, 2022 at 2:03:47 AMpermalink
If the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
link to original post

Hell no. I want all of you to keep saying it's impossible. That will keep the pressure off of those of us who try our hand at it.

I recently posted about how a casino in Wendover does not allow setting.

If too many people start saying DI works more casinos will ban dice setting.

Please. Please. Please. Keep posting DI can't possibly work.
link to original post

Well that's BS, or you wouldn't be telling us that not only is it possible, but that there are guys you know who can do it. This is just you trying to convince us of something. We have been down this road before with you.

If people go back they will see that most of your unbelievable stories have all stemmed from you trying to prove your position/point on a particular subject by using some foggy PERCEPTION of your own real-world experience, instead of actual logic, facts, and math.

I think you toss out some estimated inflated numbers and partial facts, perhaps with good intentions, but they are not always accurate. It seems to me as if you write before you take the time to remember exactly what went down and how.

Unfortunately for us, once you make those statements you are willing to die on those hills untill we can 100% prove that you are wrong, even if you know it's possibly not 100% correct... you must defend your "journalistic reputation" at all costs.

p.s. Wendover is smart, they don't want people slowing down the game and they are tired of telling people they must hit the back wall.
link to original post

Quote: AxelWolf

If people go back they will see that most of your unbelievable stories have all stemmed from you trying to prove your position/point on a particular subject by using some foggy PERCEPTION of your own real-world experience, instead of actual logic, facts, and math.
]

Quote: AlanMendelson

And what will you and Wizard dispute about that? Be specific.

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AxelWolf

If people go back they will see that most of your unbelievable stories have all stemmed from you trying to prove your position/point on a particular subject by using some foggy PERCEPTION of your own real-world experience, instead of actual logic, facts, and math.
]

You think Alan or tuttigym “believe in” logic, facts and math?!?! They’ve repeatedly stated that they don’t care what “your math” says, as if it was some kind of witchcraft
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Quote: AitchTheLetter

Because the amount of force needed to spin a set of dice used in a casino setting on any axis is roughly 222 times less than the force generated by the throw. If the numbers were closer, I can understand making the case for it being possible. As it stands, between that fact and your own admission that self-proclaimed skilled DI require a craps table where the rules of the game are not enforced, i.e. hitting the back wall, I cannot in good conscience say that i think DI is anything more than superstition and confirmation bias if not outright collusion.

[Edit for typo]
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Quote: AlanMendelson

[snip] the three DIs I used to see at Caesars link to original post

Quote: AitchTheLetter

Because the amount of force needed to spin a set of dice used in a casino setting on any axis is roughly 222 times less than the force generated by the throw. [...snip]

[Edit for typo]
link to original post

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

[snip] the three DIs I used to see at Caesars link to original post

I guess I'll preserve this post as I seem to remember you asking, paraphrasing, "when did I ever say I saw a DI" ? Now for sure you've said it.

And you make it sound like you could bet along with them any time you pleased. So, there has to be a story about that. About how you wanted to but couldn't, private table maybe. Or about how you could have, for a while, but weren't convinced till late in the game, then they vanished. Or you did bet along with them and cleaned up. Something. If there is no story to tell in this regard, then you've never seen one DI never mind 3.
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Quote: Ace2

You think Alan or tuttigym “believe in” logic, facts and math?!?!
link to original post

Quote: BillHasRetired

I know what I saw, but there's no way to convince a skeptic.

link to original post

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

[snip] the three DIs I used to see at Caesars link to original post

I guess I'll preserve this post as I seem to remember you asking, paraphrasing, "when did I ever say I saw a DI" ? Now for sure you've said it.

And you make it sound like you could bet along with them any time you pleased. So, there has to be a story about that. About how you wanted to but couldn't, private table maybe. Or about how you could have, for a while, but weren't convinced till late in the game, then they vanished. Or you did bet along with them and cleaned up. Something. If there is no story to tell in this regard, then you've never seen one DI never mind 3.
link to original post

I've been a member of this forum for years. I frequently discussed playing with 3 DIs at Caesars and I said I played with a possible fourth DI but I played at his table only once and never saw him again.

I'm curious about your paraphrase of when did I say I saw a DI? Was it when I was being sarcastic? I dont recall saying it unless I was trying to be sarcastic.
link to original post

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exactly what did I claim about DI ??

Copy and paste it.
link to original post

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: camapl

Quote: BillHasRetired

I'll be at the craps table at Cherokee in a few days, where I will, once again, attempt to loft the dice, have them rotate in step with each other, land flat on the felt, rebound, and lightly kiss the back wall at the end. I know I won't throw for three hours, but anything over about 20 minutes is golden. It will be another session in a career stretching back to 1987, when I first discovered the game.

What have I learned in 35 years of play? Other than all the odds of all the possible plays? That the dice have no memory, but humans do, and quite often bet accordingly? Or that things with astronomically high odds against them, can sometimes occur, and be witnessed? Biggest of all: that anything can happen at a craps table.

• I have witnessed dies landing atop one another. Twice. Different tables in different casinos.
• I have witnessed one shooter (stick right) who had the softest legal throw I've ever seen, land nine 9s in a 12-throw stretch, then take off, never to be seen again.
• I have witnessed two women, at opposite ends of the same table, both wearing floor-length dresses, each have both dice leave the table, and hit them right in their décolletage. (one freaked out until her boyfriend plucked them out, the other had to shake them all the way down the inside of their dress until they fell out on the floor)
• I have seen a shooter deliberately damage the dice during a throw. They were tackled by security.
• In my life I have had about a dozen rolls lasting 45+ minutes.
• I nearly always have one roll that lasts 15+ rolls when I play.
• While I have no faith in my ability to influence dice, the fact that I cannot do something does not mean it's not possible for others to do so. Browse through any collection of <Some Country's> Got Talent, and you will find folks who can exert amazing control over physical objects.
• As for astronomical odds, the half-life of a radioactive element is directly related to how likely it is that a given kind of decay will happen. Bismuth used to be a considered a stable element—it's used in Pepto-Bismol!—and it took until 2003 (over a century) for it to be observed to decay. It has a half-life of 2.01×10^19 years, about five orders of magnitude less than the quoted odds by Wizard. Tellurium-128 has a half-life of 2.2×10^24 years, which is one order of magnitude more than Wiz's odds, and yet its decay was observed by scientists. Just because something is exceptionally improbable does not mean it cannot happen.

Do I believe DI is possible? Depends on the shooter. I have no doubt that a monomaniacal shooter, practicing hours every day, on a rig that duplicates casino conditions, could acquire the degree of skill that allows for some influence over dice. That shooter is not me. But dice setting and such do calm me, and I sure as hell try not to roll a seven. But I am under no illusions. I throw not because I'm very good at it. I throw because craps is the only game in the entire casino where the player is allowed to physically interact with the randomizer, in this case, the dice.

Do I believe DI shooters are common? No. Pulling figures from the air, I think there might be 100 or less shooters who have the skill and concentration to decrease their seven-to-rolls ratio enough to gain an edge on the casino. I might have run across one in the 9-9s situation. In any case, he shot and split.

I have no doubt that I will be assailed by other posters. To them, I say, sure, get it out of your system. See you at the tables, where I'll just sip my whisky, cheer the hot shooters, curse the darksiders, and generally have a good time. Life is too short. Really, it is. Especially when you're afraid you're seeing a pale horse on the horizon.

(ETA: Tellurium half-life, plus small rewording to add clarity)
link to original post

Now THAT is how you hold math accountable!
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I absolutely agree. A wonderful uplifting post that should be a centerpiece of craps gaming and philosophies. A profile that can be embraced by players at all levels.

tuttigym
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Quote: AlanMendelson

The elephant in the room that is being ignored here is that the casinos believe there can be dice influencing otherwise they wouldn't have their rules and the NGC wouldn't have its rule about what is a legal dice throw.

Quote: camapl

Quote: tuttigym

{....massive snip...}

I absolutely agree. A wonderful uplifting post that should be a centerpiece of craps gaming and philosophies. A profile that can be embraced by players at all levels.

tuttigym
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As usual, the sarcasm of your post does not go unnoticed…
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Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memories on this forum.

A few months ago there was the European research that proved dice setting had a small advantage.

That research was thoroughly discussed here.
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Not in real casino conditions.
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I'm puzzled why you cant accept research that says the faces set on top have a tiny edge for being the end result after the roll?

Did you make some life or death commitment to criticize anything positive about anything that might indicate DI exists?

Will you lose your first born?

I've heard of True Believers. Now there are True Denyers. They never waver.

It's actually funny.
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Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AxelWolf

If people go back they will see that most of your unbelievable stories have all stemmed from you trying to prove your position/point on a particular subject by using some foggy PERCEPTION of your own real-world experience, instead of actual logic, facts, and math.
]

You think Alan or tuttigym “believe in” logic, facts and math?!?! They’ve repeatedly stated that they don’t care what “your math” says, as if it was some kind of witchcraft
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You know Ace, that is a flat out lie. I have stated that you or anyone else cannot PERFORM the math you embrace. I have previously denounced DI/DC. I have not told any fanciful stories, and you have not disputed with any certainty or reality my "logic." All you have are computer simulations which "provide a very high level of precision and confidence and usually only done when something is IMPOSSIBLE....." I also have never stated or posted that "I don't care what " 'your math' " says." Change your handle from Ace2 to Dealsfromthebottom.

tuttigym
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Quote: AitchTheLetter

So reading through the book again, I noticed that Zender referenced a consulting firm did some math on the forces that act on dice while the shooter is throwing dem bones. Unfortunately the firm appears to be defunct and their website is no longer up. However lucky for me it was crawled by the Web Archive's WayBack Machine. Wizard has given me permission to post the link so here it is.
https:// web archive org/ web /20060819223623/ http:// www sunzeri m

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Quote: BillHasRetired

Quote: camapl

Quote: tuttigym

{....massive snip...}

I absolutely agree. A wonderful uplifting post that should be a centerpiece of craps gaming and philosophies. A profile that can be embraced by players at all levels.

tuttigym
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As usual, the sarcasm of your post does not go unnoticed…
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Awwww, Camapl, you're harshing my buzz. And here I thought I wrote something some folks liked. Ah, well....
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Quote: AlanMendelson

The elephant in the room that is being ignored here is that the casinos believe there can be dice influencing otherwise they wouldn't have their rules and the NGC wouldn't have its rule about what is a legal dice throw.

And I wouldn't have been tossed from Bellagio, NYNY and MGM Grand... and I wasn't tossed for delaying the game with setting.

I'm glad the casinos have their rules. Otherwise we'd be left with Bubble Craps or dealers throwing the dice.

Carry on.
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