Bill Zender's take on Dice Control
On page 109 he says;
Quote:First of all the information about the success of rhythm throws and dice control is based primarily on anecdotic information. I have yet to see independant studies illustrating a large number of recorded throws and the ratio of sevens (known as the "sevens to rolls ratio" or SRR). Stanford Wong (who is known and highly respected for his analytical skills in blackjack) omitted any supportive statistical analysis or records in his book titled Wong on Dice: Practical Advice Based on Math and Logic (2005); as did Scoblete in his books Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos (2004) and The Craps Underground (2003) along with Sharpshooter (Pawlicki) in his book Get The Edge at Craps: How to Control Dice (2005).
I know that Zender published his book in 2006 so has this statement been made obsolete in the past 16 years or is it still accurate?
He then goes on to say the following on the same page;
Quote:Secondly, none of the dice control experts address in detail what affect the pyramid wall padding has on their ability to control the dice"
(...)
Only Stanford Wong's book mentions, in very vague terms, the affect of the dice bouncing off the pyramid pattern Wong advises the shooter not to "hit the pyramids on the fly" and states if the dice do strike the pyramids it will "add variety" to the result and "not complete randomness". Wong then goes on to admit that he doesn't know "exactly how that happens".
This second part alone makes me question dice control since casinos require the dice to strike the opposite side wall. Sure the dice setter can attempt to bounce the dice up into the wall but could a casino remove all fears of the dreaded dice setters by requiring the dice to strike the wall on the fly without bouncing off the layout first?
[Edits for fixing misspelled name]
Quote: ChumpChangeSeems I can't throw that far and I fail to hit the back wall from the far side of the long table, then I get a warning to hit the back wall. I don't look like I'm 95 years old and too frail to hit the back wall so my weak throw will have to get stronger. Or I could move to stick right and find my comfort zone. Eventually they will bar me from throwing the dice for failing to hit the back wall and I don't know if that will be for the rest of the day or for the rest of my life, but I can still place bets on the felt. In the meantime, there's Bubble Craps that has no ornery dealers and I can throw all I'll ever want to without waiting an hour for my turn again.
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How do you throw the dice when you play Bubble Craps?
Quote: AitchTheLetterI know that Zender published his book in 2006 so has this statement been made obsolete in the past 16 years or is it still accurate?
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It's still accurate.
I have yet to see any published data that somebody can influence the dice beyond, say, three standard deviations. Yes, I've seen some second-hand data that if I decide what to test for after the fact, I can find some anomalies. However, that method is very unscientific.
But you'd expect a dice influencer to publish?
Anyone else see the irony here?
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But for the record there is no dice control. No need to have the dealers throw the dice or tumble them in a cage.
I get modern AP not wanting to publish information on plays they are currently running. I just acknowledge that there has been 16 years since the book I am reading was published and the information could be obsolete.
Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh... the APs here would never consider publishing their plays.
But you'd expect a dice influencer to publish?
Anyone else see the irony here?
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I don't know what APs here would or would not publish
but as far as the point you are trying to make - are you joking_____?
there are tens of thousands of pages of AP plays re blackjack that have been published
card counting, shuffle tracking, hole carding, etc.__________I don't think anything has been held back - not that I know about
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: AlanMendelsonGosh... the APs here would never consider publishing their plays.
But you'd expect a dice influencer to publish?
Anyone else see the irony here?
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I don't know what APs here would or would not publish
but as far as the point you are trying to make - are you joking_____?
there are tens of thousands of pages of AP plays re blackjack that have been published
card counting, shuffle tracking, hole carding, etc.__________I don't think anything has been held back - not that I know about
.
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Agreed.
If how to construct an atom bomb couldn't be kept a secret, advantage play techniques certainly aren't safe.
Quote: AitchTheLetterWell there are more than a few people, including Stanford Wong, who have published books on the subject. And there are more than a handfull of seminars and classes claiming to teach dice control to people for a premium.
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You're absolutely right!
I think people are making more money on teaching dice control than actually doing it. It would be good advertising if somebody could convince me they have an advantage. I would be happy to publish the results of any kind of experiment we do to prove it -- win or loss. I've had this challenge for some 20 years and ever yet to receive even a serious inquiry.
No light at the end of that tunnel.
What ever happened to Dominator, Scoblete and the others trying to monetize the dice control fad?
Quote: MrVI recall how forum member (IIRC it was Ahigh) built a contraption in his home to explore the efficacy of dice setting.
No light at the end of that tunnel.
What ever happened to Dominator, Scoblete and the others trying to monetize the dice control fad?
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Ahigh's attempts at DI were a joke. He showed zero evidence of DI.
DI is a very simple concept but the reality is few people have the skill.
It seems that everyone without the skill calls DI bogus. And that's understandable. They can't do it so they figure no one else can do it.
Well, it can be done. I can't do but that doesn't mean others can't. I've seen three who can.
I also can't count cards but I'm sure others can.
I can't bluff in poker but I'm sure others can.
I can't use multi cards at casinos but I'm sure others can.
So chill out. We can't do it... but (a few) others can.
If you're lucky one day you'll see it. If youre lucky.
In the meantime watch out for the pretenders.
So how do you know when you see it ?Quote: AlanMendelson
If you're lucky one day you'll see it. If youre lucky.
I
I’ve seen some very long rolls and I’ve had a few myself. When I had them, was I temporarily controlling the dice without even realizing it ?
Every shooter has about a 1 in 300 chance of lasting over 40 rolls. So a regular craps player will see such rolls many times over the course of his playing “career”
Just like you saw 18 yo's in a row.Quote: AlanMendelson
Well, it can be done. I can't do but that doesn't mean others can't. I've seen three who can.
It's only when they leave my hands and fly through the air I seem to have problems
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: MrVI've seen three who can. ]
No, you haven’t. You may think you have. But you are wrong. And that is a fact. Plain and simple. Just because you repeat it as nauseum adds no credibility. If you have been fooled into thinking you saw 18 yo’s in a row how difficult would it be to fool you into thinking a random through had some ‘ influence’? Not too….
Format issue! Sorry Mr V. Obviously meant to address Alan’s silly claim he saw someone successfully influence dice!
Quote: darkozI am actually an expert at dice control myself.
It's only when they leave my hands and fly through the air I seem to have problems
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without your powers the dice would have never been thrown into the air or landed in the position that they did - you CONTROLLED that no? the entire situation is dependent on your throw is it not?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell, it can be done. I can't do but that doesn't mean others can't. I've seen three who can.
We'd have heard about it by now if someone could regularly control the dice.
C'mon, with the powers of Superman the casinos would be their oyster, IF DI gave them enough of an edge.
Alan, what exactly is it that you "saw" that led you to believe these were gamblin' gods?
Dead cat bounce?
What?
Dice rotate together slowly to act as a brake when they hit the table. Dice equally above the table surface but low enough to limit the bounce.
Soft gentle throw to the back wall with a gentle bounce back to limit the direction of the bounce back and the number of rotations.
What everyone sees are CHUCKERS claiming to be dice influencers. The dice of chuckers fly and bounce all over. Look at Ahigh's attempts.
Anyone not standing by the stick is automatically disqualified because they need too much force to reach the wall.
Anyone playing on a long table is automatically disqualified for the same reason.
When Caesars got new tables about 5 years ago the new tables were about 24 inches longer (just one foot on each side) -- enough that the three DIs I saw there stopped playing there.
Watch a slo-mo video of a "pro" DI guy and u will see its meaningless when done in casino conditions, once the dice hits the table its meaningless.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat defines dice influencing has been written many times.
Dice rotate together slowly to act as a brake when they hit the table. Dice equally above the table surface but low enough to limit the bounce.
Soft gentle throw to the back wall with a gentle bounce back to limit the direction of the bounce back and the number of rotations.
What everyone sees are CHUCKERS claiming to be dice influencers. The dice of chuckers fly and bounce all over. Look at Ahigh's attempts.
Anyone not standing by the stick is automatically disqualified because they need too much force to reach the wall.
Anyone playing on a long table is automatically disqualified for the same reason.
When Caesars got new tables about 5 years ago the new tables were about 24 inches longer (just one foot on each side) -- enough that the three DIs I saw there stopped playing there.
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Quote: AxelWolfWatch a slo-mo video of a "pro" DI guy and u will see its meaningless when done in casino conditions, once the dice hits the table its meaningless.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat defines dice influencing has been written many times.
Dice rotate together slowly to act as a brake when they hit the table. Dice equally above the table surface but low enough to limit the bounce.
Soft gentle throw to the back wall with a gentle bounce back to limit the direction of the bounce back and the number of rotations.
What everyone sees are CHUCKERS claiming to be dice influencers. The dice of chuckers fly and bounce all over. Look at Ahigh's attempts.
Anyone not standing by the stick is automatically disqualified because they need too much force to reach the wall.
Anyone playing on a long table is automatically disqualified for the same reason.
When Caesars got new tables about 5 years ago the new tables were about 24 inches longer (just one foot on each side) -- enough that the three DIs I saw there stopped playing there.
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Axel please post a link to what you think is a controlled or influenced throw.
I promise you it's not.
Its probably some random throw with a shooter claiming it was controlled.
I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it. I was lucky being at a table at 5 in the morning when a DI didnt want any attention. Made his hit and run.
I'm yet to see a video of a controlled throw online.
That would be like a card counter videotaping his play at a Strip casino with his face showing.
To be clear, given the largely anecdotic nature of the skill, I am not out right denying it exists. I am simply trying to educate myself in a new hobby that is understanding Advantage Play and the Games Protection side of things. I taught myself Blackjack basic strategy and then card counting. I also learned about countermeasures that casinos use for suspected AP on Black tables. I learned about basic and hole carding strategies in UTH, Mississippi Stud, and Three Card Poker. Now I am expanding my understanding of Craps and all possible points of attack on a very mathematically inserting (at least to me since I know it is a very old game) game.
Once you read it you'll understand it's a very fine skill.
You'll understand who the bull----ers are, and how rare it is to truly control dice.
Expert advice.Quote: ChumpChangeIf your Come bets are winning on the first roll after being established, make sure you have odds on them.
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So this DI was so good that he raped the casino with a quick “hit and run” one morning? So good that he didn’t need thousands of trials to have reasonable confidence of realizing his advantage over the house? An expert card counter with a 1% advantage needs to play about 10,000 hands before he can be reasonably confident of a profitQuote: AlanMendelson
I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it. I was lucky being at a table at 5 in the morning when a DI didnt want any attention. Made his hit and run.
]
We’re all dying to know what you saw that morning…other than a rainbow, pot of gold and 18 consecutive yo’s. Please elaborate
Quote: Ace2So this DI was so good that he raped the casino with a quick “hit and run” one morning? So good that he didn’t need thousands of trials to have reasonable confidence of realizing his advantage over the house? An expert card counter with a 1% advantage needs to play about 10,000 hands before he can be reasonably confident of a profitQuote: AlanMendelson
I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it. I was lucky being at a table at 5 in the morning when a DI didnt want any attention. Made his hit and run.
]
We’re all dying to know what you saw that morning…other than a rainbow, pot of gold and 18 consecutive yo’s. Please elaborate
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It wasn't just one morning.
Long time members here may remember that I've said I've known three true dice influencers and possibly a fourth I played with once.
One of them is a cardiac surgeon from Washington State.
You're looking for fictional accounts of monster rolls where DIs hit numbers on command. That's fiction. It only happens in forum discussions.
In reality true DIs come to the table, have a decent roll, dont overstay their welcome and live to play another day.
It's actually what other APs do.
It's not what you read in fictional accounts.
Quote: AlanMendelsonTheres a craps DI book by an aeronautical engineer under the pen name Sharpshooter. It has the math behind DI and not the BS of other authors with their wild stories about "rhythmic rollers."
Once you read it you'll understand it's a very fine skill.
really - is that really true____? - because a few hours ago you posted this:
.
Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh... the APs here would never consider publishing their plays.
But you'd expect a dice influencer to publish?
Anyone else see the irony here?
you're all over the map -
.
But even if it did, I live too far from a casino to think about following this guy around.
I asked Alan if he ever tried to follow someone around who he was convinced was a successful dice setter. Why not? Remember, I was not convinced. Alan has been. So I asked and I got crickets ... but to be fair I don't know for sure if he saw that post.
So I ask again, Alan: have you ever tried to follow around and bet with someone you were convinced could set the dice? If not, why not? I could see trying and getting foiled, did you do that, and what happened?
I just see no reason for crickets.
Quote: AlanMendelsonTheres a craps DI book by an aeronautical engineer under the pen name Sharpshooter. It has the math behind DI and not the BS of other authors with their wild stories about "rhythmic rollers."
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Zender mentions Sharpshooter by name in the first quite I mentioned and says that he omits any supportive statistical analysis.
Quote: AitchTheLetter
On page 109 he says;Quote:First of all the information about the success of rhythm throws and dice control is based primarily on anecdotic information. I have yet to see independant studies illustrating a large number of recorded throws and the ratio of sevens (known as the "sevens to rolls ratio" or SRR). Stanford Wong (who is known and highly respected for his analytical skills in blackjack) omitted any supportive statistical analysis or records in his book titled Wong on Dice: Practical Advice Based on Math and Logic (2005); as did Scoblete in his books Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos (2004) and The Craps Underground (2003) along with Sharpshooter (Pawlicki) in his book Get The Edge at Craps: How to Control Dice (2005).
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Zender does question the lack of empirical data on page 110 that
Quote:Unfortunately, there is not enough empirical information available that can confirm or reject the authenticity of the claims of players being able to alter odds with a controlled dice throw. It may also be quite a while before this mentioned technique of controlling the outcome of a dice thrown in the casino environment can be properly analyzed and a valid decision reached.
He does go on to say on page 110
Quote:(...) that there may be some validity to this technique. However, the number of players who can successfully scrap a small advantage in the long run is limited to a handful of highly practiced people. With enough practice it's understandable that a limited number of talent people could get good enough to toss the dice to a specific place on the table where they stand a chance to alter the randomness of a few dice throws. Although possibly successful for a few, at this point I would be reluctant to believe that this technique could be taught to players on a volume similar to the mental skill of counting cards in blackjack.
So he does not deny it is a possibility that a select handful, as you claim, are able to occasionally extend their throws by influencing the randomness but he does still question the validity of it.
Quote: AitchTheLetter
So he does not deny it is a possibility that a select handful, as you claim, are able to occasionally extend their throws by influencing the randomness but he does still question the validity of it.
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this dude - Sharpshooter (Pawlicki) is obviously no dummy
he knows this has never been proven
so why doesn't he prove it with Wizard's challenge or in a similar videotaped challenge with some respected authority______?
it would dramatically increase the sales of all the different stuff he is selling
but he didn't do that_____________why____________?
there is a message there______________and to me the message is this___________he didn't do these things because he can't control the dice - not if he is required to hit the pyramids
the same is true of Frank Scoblete - who I think he is in business with or who endorses him iirc
before the DI thing Scoblete published a book "Forever Craps" with a counting system - he called it the Five Count iirc
this was a patience system and it was obviously bogus - no gambling authority such as the Wizard would ever endorse something like that
.
Theres a difference between knowing how it's done and actually have the physical ability to do it.
I know how to field a baseball in left field and I know which base to throw the ball to. But that doesnt mean I have the ability to run in left field to catch the ball and then throw it to make a play at home.
You might know how to count cards but you might not be able to do it in a fast blackjack game.
And if you want to know about "plays" in craps there are plays on par with plays at card games.
APs know where they can get a peek at hole cards. Crap players know where they're not pressured to hit the back wall.
But I'm not telling.
And yet, you think math experts should put their time and effort into somthing like this.Quote: AlanMendelson
I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it.
AlanMendelson
Joined:Oct 5, 2011Threads: 151Posts: 5107July 16th, 2022 at 2:03:47 AMpermalink
If the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
Quote: AlanMendelsonCrap players know where they're not pressured to hit the back wall.
But I'm not telling.
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So you acknowledge then that to properly influence the dice and turn the edge to the player you have to rely on apathetic dealers or collusion? Fair enough, there are dealers who just see it as a job to punch in and get their paycheck, these don't see the issue in allowing the patrons to win since the casino's money isn't their own personal money. As for needing the collusion from dealers not requiring you to hit the back wall then that opens up a can of worms as could not the casinos make the case for theft?
They are probably not too worried about some low rolling scrubs not hitting the back wall. I have a feeling if someome comes in and looks as if they are trying to take advantage of the situation for any serious money, the casino will take notice and put a stop to it. Imagine hitting your numbers and getting NO ROLLED....bye bye any advantage you might have had(it was zero in the first place).Quote: AitchTheLetterQuote: AlanMendelsonCrap players know where they're not pressured to hit the back wall.
But I'm not telling.
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So you acknowledge then that to properly influence the dice and turn the edge to the player you have to rely on apathetic dealers or collusion? Fair enough, there are dealers who just see it as a job to punch in and get their paycheck, these don't see the issue in allowing the patrons to win since the casino's money isn't their own personal money. As for needing the collusion from dealers not requiring you to hit the back wall then that opens up a can of worms as could not the casinos make the case for theft?
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Quote: AxelWolfAnd yet, you think math experts should put their time and effort into somthing like this.Quote: AlanMendelson
I'll sum it up this way: it's such a rare f---ing skill you've never seen it.
AlanMendelson
Joined:Oct 5, 2011Threads: 151Posts: 5107July 16th, 2022 at 2:03:47 AMpermalink
If the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
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Hell no. I want all of you to keep saying it's impossible. That will keep the pressure off of those of us who try our hand at it.
I recently posted about how a casino in Wendover does not allow setting.
If too many people start saying DI works more casinos will ban dice setting.
Please. Please. Please. Keep posting DI can't possibly work.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIn reality true DIs come to the table, have a decent roll, dont overstay their welcome and live to play another day.
It's actually what other APs do.
It's not what you read in fictional accounts.
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Let's keep in context this is coming from the same person who allegedly witnessed 18 yo's in a row (1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000 chance).
Quote: WizardQuote: AlanMendelsonIn reality true DIs come to the table, have a decent roll, dont overstay their welcome and live to play another day.
It's actually what other APs do.
It's not what you read in fictional accounts.
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Let's keep in context this is coming from the same person who allegedly witnessed 18 yo's in a row (1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000 chance).
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That is a personal attack and you should be ashamed of yourself.
No one including you has ever proven that I didnt see a random shooter roll 18 yos in a row.
This is not the first time you used the 18 yos to discredit me.
Well, i never used your failed website to discredit you -- and you admitted your website failed when you asked for donations and then sold out.
Touche.
https:/ /web archive org/ web /20060819223623/ http:// www sunzeri com/TrueCraps/TC-DiceControl.htm
The gist is that the force of any throw is roughly 222 times the amount of force needed to act on the dice to spin it on any axis meaning any amount of attempted control is negligible. This does not even take into account the pyramid wall padding. I understand the largely anecdotal nature of the skill and those who claim to have it, but I am going to have to say, based on the math in that link, that I think it is a bunch of cow manure dressed up as chocolate pudding.
[edit for typo]
Quote: AlanMendelsonNo one including you has ever proven that I didnt see a random shooter roll 18 yos in a row.[snip]
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I believe that is your genuine recollection, that you do not believe you are lying, and it is all based on a remarkable event.
but I can't believe you would come to believe you found someone who is able to deviate from random in a way that is profitable as a dice shooter, and not try to also continue to profit from being at the table with him. Or at least that it crossed your mind, but you were unable to do so for some reason. It would *have* to be part of the story.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThat is a personal attack and you should be ashamed of yourself.
No one including you has ever proven that I didnt see a random shooter roll 18 yos in a row.
This is not the first time you used the 18 yos to discredit me.
Well, i never used your failed website to discredit you -- and you admitted your website failed when you asked for donations and then sold out.
Touche.
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I am only reminding the forum of something you claimed to have seen and have never retracted. The incident speaks to the credibility of your claims and the forum should be reminded of your claim from from time to time. I would ask you and the forum to consider, what is more likely, an event with 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000 chance or that you remembered the incident incorrectly. That it can't be disproven does not prove it happened.
As to your counter, I am okay with that. I was losing a lot of money at the time as almost no adverting revenue was coming in. Plenty of people creating free content ask for donations and I did too. When I sold the site I returned all donations I could track down and gave the rest to charity.
If another moderator feels me reminding the forum of your claim breaks any rules, I will accept whatever justice they feel appropriate.
Quote: HunterhillI’m sure it’s been mentioned before but how many rolls would it take to prove that someone actually had an edge?
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Ask Ace2. He and others rely on computer simulations of millions/billions of rolls that show all kinds of outcomes which could never be performed, but are regarded as gospel in the gambling world.
tuttigym
I'm estimating - counting elsewhere - that more than 30,000 words have been posted on the subject of 18 yos in a row
and I've just added 39 more words - why____? - I couldn't say - it's a subject that just won't go away
.
Quote: WizardQuote: AlanMendelsonThat is a personal attack and you should be ashamed of yourself.
No one including you has ever proven that I didnt see a random shooter roll 18 yos in a row.
This is not the first time you used the 18 yos to discredit me.
Well, i never used your failed website to discredit you -- and you admitted your website failed when you asked for donations and then sold out.
Touche.
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I am only reminding the forum of something you claimed to have seen and have never retracted. The incident speaks to the credibility of your claims and the forum should be reminded of your claim from from time to time. I would ask you and the forum to consider, what is more likely, an event with 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000 chance or that you remembered the incident incorrectly. That it can't be disproven does not prove it happened.
As to your counter, I am okay with that. I was losing a lot of money at the time as almost no adverting revenue was coming in. Plenty of people creating free content ask for donations and I did too. When I sold the site I returned all donations I could track down and gave the rest to charity.
If another moderator feels me reminding the forum of your claim breaks any rules, I will accept whatever justice they feel appropriate.
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I'm not going to retract something that I saw happen.
I dont care what your odds say, it happened.
And this question keeps coming up: why didnt I bet on the 11? Because who would think another 11 woukd be thrown. The more 11s that were thrown the less likely another would be thrown.
The shooter and his buddy never bet on an 11 either.
I hope I dont have to explain that again. But by the way, yesterday someone at my table at Red Rock threw aces three times in a row. It was a full table. No one bet on aces.
Quote: lilredroosterand I've just added 39 more words - why____? - I couldn't say - it's a subject that just won't go away
.
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A man's word is important. Newcomers may come along who don't know about Alan's 18 consecutive yo's claim. Now he is making claims about dice influence (DI). I think that in considering the credibility of Alan's statements on DI, one should also consider them in light of the 18 yo's. I'm not saying anything about Alan's credibility directly, but asking the reader to draw his own conclusions. I just state the facts. Meanwhile, I try to not be a troll by making said reminders only from time to time, when Alan makes new claims, especially about craps.
If Alan were to say that perhaps he remembered the incident incorrectly, maybe confusing the number of yo's with the probability of each one (1 in 18), I'd be happy to drop it. Memories are very fallible.
