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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 11th, 2022 at 9:11:14 AM permalink
You make come bets with odds hoping the shooter will have a long roll.

If you're using a progression on the come bets in anticipation of a 7 wiping out previous come bets why not be a DP/DC player?
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 11th, 2022 at 9:18:54 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym



Did Markov ever gamble, i.e., craps?

Classic. Did Gauss and Euler ever hit the casinos? If not, their mathematical contributions don’t apply
It’s all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 11th, 2022 at 10:31:59 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Speaking for myself, I make coke bets


link to original post




what is the greatest no. of kilos of cocaine you have ever won_____?????


sorry, I couldn't resist_____________________________________(~:\


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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May 11th, 2022 at 10:47:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Posts illustrating Alan's stubborn misunderstanding of probability in the two dice problem have been moved to Two Dice Puzzle -- Part Trois.
link to original post

Borderline trolling of Alan. Pointing at that saga seems geared to embarrass Alan, or to have him embarrass himself.
Wizard is currently suspended for three days for personal insult, so I propose we leave it at that.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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May 11th, 2022 at 10:51:38 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Speaking for myself, I make coke bets


link to original post




what is the greatest no. of kilos of cocaine you have ever won_____?????


sorry, I couldn't resist_____________________________________(~:\


.
link to original post

hahaha. Nice
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 11th, 2022 at 11:15:33 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym



Did Markov ever gamble, i.e., craps?

Classic. Did Gauss and Euler ever hit the casinos? If not, their mathematical contributions don’t apply
link to original post


Yes, but they were tourists and could not figure anything out nor could they produce consecutive winning hands.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 11th, 2022 at 11:46:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470

8-9 rolls doesn't seem to be a "per session" stat. But I can't find where you say the size of a session either



Quote: Wizard

In other news, here is the net number of points the player can expect to win.  This only counts fully winning, including the odds.  Winning a come bet with the odds turned off on a come-out roll does not count. 


    Net Points Won        Probability   
    -3        0.114039   
    -2        0.236719   
    -1        0.356293   
    0        0.113150   
    1        0.066998   
    2        0.041946   
    3        0.026353   
    4        0.016556   
    5        0.010399   
    6        0.006530   
    7        0.004101   
    8        0.002574   
    9        0.001616   
    10        0.001015   
    11        0.000637   
    12        0.000400   
    13        0.000251   
    14        0.000158   
    15        0.000099   
    16        0.000062   
    17        0.000039   
    18        0.000024   
    19        0.000015   
    20        0.000010   
    21        0.000006   
    22        0.000004   
    23        0.000002   
    24        0.000002   
    25+        0.000003   
    Total        1.000000   

link to original post

I know what 'winning a point' means but I am confounded by not seeing any -4 or greater stats. Then again I don't know how you are defining a session
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
May 11th, 2022 at 12:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wizard

I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470

8-9 rolls doesn't seem to be a "per session" stat. But I can't find where you say the size of a session either



Quote: Wizard

In other news, here is the net number of points the player can expect to win.  This only counts fully winning, including the odds.  Winning a come bet with the odds turned off on a come-out roll does not count. 


    Net Points Won        Probability   
    -3        0.114039   
    -2        0.236719   
    -1        0.356293   
    0        0.113150   
    1        0.066998   
    2        0.041946   
    3        0.026353   
    4        0.016556   
    5        0.010399   
    6        0.006530   
    7        0.004101   
    8        0.002574   
    9        0.001616   
    10        0.001015   
    11        0.000637   
    12        0.000400   
    13        0.000251   
    14        0.000158   
    15        0.000099   
    16        0.000062   
    17        0.000039   
    18        0.000024   
    19        0.000015   
    20        0.000010   
    21        0.000006   
    22        0.000004   
    23        0.000002   
    24        0.000002   
    25+        0.000003   
    Total        1.000000   

link to original post

I know what 'winning a point' means but I am confounded by not seeing any -4 or greater stats. Then again I don't know how you are defining a session
link to original post



Looks like a “session” is one shooter. Until a seven out.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 11th, 2022 at 12:13:23 PM permalink
Quote: unJon



Looks like a “session” is one shooter. Until a seven out.
link to original post

That can be called a "hand" ... if that is what it is, a hand can only have one failed attempt on a point, or what am I missing? oh, wait, a 7-out can cause 3 simultaneous losses ... but not 4 in a 3 pt molly
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 11th, 2022 at 12:41:09 PM permalink
_____________


if a casino offers 10 times odds and a player wants to bet $110 when a pass line bet is available___________

the best he can do in percentage terms is to bet $10 pass and $100 free odds on the point

no other combination of bets - assuming the same dollar amount is bet - can match that in the long run

players don't do that because it's not a fun way to play

so obviously, although making good percentage bets are a consideration for many, a major consideration for almost all players is to play in a way that is enjoyable for them


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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