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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
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Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence.

But you will notice your results approaching statistical expectations with far fewer trials...in the low thousands. Many of us play several thousand hands in one year.

You and Mr. AlanM should hit the craps table together sometime since you share a similar belief system
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So have you lost EXACTLY 1.4% of your passline bets? I think that's the point being made. No one really makes or reaches the mathematical expectations.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN ANYONE DENIES THE MATH.
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What is the difference between denying the math and claiming it is irrelevant?
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Irrelevant is a very strong word. I never said it's irrelevant.

The math gives you a projection or estimate for how a bet will perform. I dont think that's irrelevant.
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 4:06:30 PM permalink
Math:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2C%20some%20tables,a%20house%20edge%20of%2020.61%25.

Quote: Ace2

It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit
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Denial of math:

Quote: AlanMendelson



Sorry. But I hit it more often. And as I said, Bellagio got killed by a group of better shooters.

Edited to add:

You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else. I've been at tables at Red Rock and Sam's Town where two or more shooters have thrown the ALL in less than an hour.

I think I see it thrown once in every two trips.

I've seen players hit the ALL without making a single pass.

1 in 190?? Too far out.
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Math denier. Case closed
Itís all about making that GTA
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 10th, 2022 at 4:41:41 PM permalink
Posts illustrating Alan's stubborn misunderstanding of probability in the two dice problem have been moved to Two Dice Puzzle -- Part Trois.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 4:47:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Posts illustrating Alan's stubborn misunderstanding of probability in the two dice problem have been moved to Two Dice Puzzle -- Part Trois.
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What a masterfully crafted editorialized comment. You should have been a tabloid writer.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 10th, 2022 at 5:02:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2


Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence. And usually only done when something is impossible or too difficult to calculate directly.


Exactly, The math is hypotheses "impossible or too difficult to calculate directly." No one has performed the math as calculated even with your "several thousand hands in one year." For example: have you performed, at a $10 table, several thousand PL hands and only lost $1410 while wagering a total of $1.000,000 on the PL bet only? So why don't you "hit the craps table together" with Mr. W., since you share a similar belief system a.k.a Math Does Apply to All.

I am quite confident your results won't even come close to those statistical expectations plus your physical and mental well being might suffer dire effects.

Another words, hypotheses PROVE IT. PERFORM IT.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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May 10th, 2022 at 5:30:32 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I have calculated the expected result of a 3PM using a single passline bet as a reference point. Relative to single PL bet, continuously playing a 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 (easy to calculate) and your standard deviation by a factor of 1.91 (obtained via simulation). You might assume that the SD would increase by 2.4^.5 =~ 1.55, but it goes up more since the 3PM bets are correlated, especially when a seven-out happens with multiple numbers covered.

For example, let's say you play a single PL bet with 3/4/5 odds for three hours and expect 100 bets resolved in that period. Your expectation is 100 * -.0141 +/- 100^.5 * 4.92 = -1.41 units +/- 49.2. With a flat bet of $100 that's -$141 +/- $4,920. If instead you play a 3PM over that same period using the same flat bet amount, your expectation is -$141* 2.4 +/- $4,920 * 1.91 = -$338 +/- $9,397. If a single $100 flat bet with 3/4/5 odds is your comfort level, then you would probably reduce your flat bet to $50 for a 3PM since that would give you a similar expectation of -$169 +/- $4,699
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I'm not motivated to bet 3X, 4X, 5X odds because of table max limits at this time. But I am wondering about these numbers for 1X, and 2X, and 3X odds.
I'm also wondering if my downside would be less at 1X odds because $20 PL with $20 Odds and a $20 Come only loses $20 on a point 7-out, whereas with $40 odds, I'll be down $40, and $60 odds I'll be down $60.
$30 PL + $30 Odds + $30 Come, lose $30 on P7-out; $20 PL + $40 Odds + $20 Come, lose $40 on P7-out
$40 PL + $40 Odds + $40 Come, lose $40 on P7-out; $20 PL + $60 Odds + $20 Come, lose $60 on P7-out
Those losses double for hitting the 7-out on the 2nd Come bet winner.

Sure I reduce the HA by betting more odds, but I'm getting whiplash by short handed shooters.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on May 10, 2022
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 6:16:39 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2


Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence. And usually only done when something is impossible or too difficult to calculate directly.


Exactly, The math is hypotheses "impossible or too difficult to calculate directly." No one has performed the math as calculated even with your "several thousand hands in one year." For example: have you performed, at a $10 table, several thousand PL hands and only lost $1410 while wagering a total of $1.000,000 on the PL bet only? So why don't you "hit the craps table together" with Mr. W., since you share a similar belief system a.k.a Math Does Apply to All.

I am quite confident your results won't even come close to those statistical expectations plus your physical and mental well being might suffer dire effects.

Another words, hypotheses PROVE IT. PERFORM IT.

tuttigym
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I don't think your math adds up since the expected loss on $1,000,000 would be $14,100, but I can tell you that if you made 1,000,000 passline bets there is a 95% chance your result will be within -1.21% and -1.61%. Your chance of being up on the casino after a million PL bets is effectively zero since that would be about 14 standard deviations above expectations...roughly the same chance as your house being struck by a meteor every night this week.

This is not just theory. You can calculate it directly/exactly with a markov chain. Try it sometime instead of just stating your superstitions
Last edited by: Ace2 on May 10, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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ChumpChange
May 10th, 2022 at 6:26:19 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Quote: Ace2

I have calculated the expected result of a 3PM using a single passline bet as a reference point. Relative to single PL bet, continuously playing a 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 (easy to calculate) and your standard deviation by a factor of 1.91 (obtained via simulation). You might assume that the SD would increase by 2.4^.5 =~ 1.55, but it goes up more since the 3PM bets are correlated, especially when a seven-out happens with multiple numbers covered.

For example, let's say you play a single PL bet with 3/4/5 odds for three hours and expect 100 bets resolved in that period. Your expectation is 100 * -.0141 +/- 100^.5 * 4.92 = -1.41 units +/- 49.2. With a flat bet of $100 that's -$141 +/- $4,920. If instead you play a 3PM over that same period using the same flat bet amount, your expectation is -$141* 2.4 +/- $4,920 * 1.91 = -$338 +/- $9,397. If a single $100 flat bet with 3/4/5 odds is your comfort level, then you would probably reduce your flat bet to $50 for a 3PM since that would give you a similar expectation of -$169 +/- $4,699
link to original post



I'm not motivated to bet 3X, 4X, 5X odds because of table max limits at this time. But I am wondering about these numbers for 1X, and 2X, and 3X odds.
I'm also wondering if my downside would be less at 1X odds because $20 PL with $20 Odds and a $20 Come only loses $20 on a point 7-out, whereas with $40 odds, I'll be down $40, and $60 odds I'll be down $60.
$30 PL + $30 Odds + $30 Come, lose $30 on P7-out; $20 PL + $40 Odds + $20 Come, lose $40 on P7-out
$40 PL + $40 Odds + $40 Come, lose $40 on P7-out; $20 PL + $60 Odds + $20 Come, lose $60 on P7-out
Those losses double for hitting the 7-out on the 2nd Come bet winner.

Sure I reduce the HA by betting more odds, but I'm getting whiplash by short handed shooters.
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You might be overthinking it. No such thing as a short handed shooter.

Anyway, the multiples listed above of of 2.4 and 1.91 apply to any odds amount.
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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May 10th, 2022 at 6:31:50 PM permalink
Where'd you get the 4.92?
Ace2
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ChumpChange
May 10th, 2022 at 7:12:13 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Where'd you get the 4.92?
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Itís easy to calculate but itís also posted on the Wiz site.

General rule: the SD is the odds amount + 1. So for 2x odds the SD is about 3, for 3x odds itís about 4, for 3/4/5 odds (average around 4) itís about 5

This is one of the Ace2 Conjectures
Itís all about making that GTA

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