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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:40:47 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Wizard

I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470
Probability net win = 0.304783
Average win per session = -0.086295
Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)
Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return
Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970
Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000
Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265
Total 1.000000 -0.086295


The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.


Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?
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I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
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Don't you understand that the math decides if you will win or lose? If the math says you will lose 1.4% of your passline wagers you must do so. If the math says you will hit the ALL only once in 190 shooters you must do so. The math controls everything. There is no variation. Give it up. Comply.

(But if you actually gamble in a casino and experience something different, say nothing, or you'll be labeled a math denier. And if you see a casino do something that you don't think should happen say nothing or they'll call you a liar.)
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:46:36 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Ace2

I only meant that if you are playing a 3PM then you are always playing it. You will always have between zero and three numbers covered but the method is always to keep adding bets until you have three.
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Thanks. Was there something I wrote that made you feel I had a different understanding of how to the 3PM?

Just a question of semantics. You view a 3PM in terms of quitting/restarting and I don't. You could say that immediately after a seven-out a 3PM bettor is the same as a single PL bettor since they both have one bet on the table, but it's not necessarily true since the 3PM bettor has probably reduced his bet amount by 50% to counter the higher bet volume/variance of the 3PM.
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:53:15 AM permalink
Does a 3 point molly include the passline?

Don't jump all over me. I'm asking a question.
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:58:49 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Don't you understand that the math decides if you will win or lose? If the math says you will lose 1.4% of your passline wagers you must do so. If the math says you will hit the ALL only once in 190 shooters you must do so. The math controls everything. There is no variation. Give it up. Comply.

(But if you actually gamble in a casino and experience something different, say nothing, or you'll be labeled a math denier. And if you see a casino do something that you don't think should happen say nothing or they'll call you a liar.)
link to original post

Actually, there is variance from expectations, and this variance can be easily calculated to any degree of confidence you like.

Statistics 101: If you play just the passline for a weekend then anything can happen. 1.41% isn't even that relevant for a short period (focus more on variance). But after many years of playing, your loss with be fairly close to 1.41%. Unless you play 3/4/5 odds...then it will be closer to 0.37%, almost nothing!
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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Thanks for this post from:
AlanMendelson
May 10th, 2022 at 12:00:22 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Does a 3 point molly include the passline?

Don't jump all over me. I'm asking a question.
link to original post

Yes, 3 points total. So you stop making additional bets when you have 1 PL bet and 2 come bets have travelled to numbers
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:08:54 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
link to original post




I'll tell you what

once again you bumble up a wrong explanation based on personal observations and anecdotes

anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you


.
link to original post



I'm asking you to meet me and see for yourself. I'm even willing to buy lunch. No money involved. No risk. And no need to be nasty about it.

Okay... you dont want to do it.

Anyone else interested in watching four hours of craps to keep score on the number of shooters and how often the ALL is hit?

Lunch included.
link to original post

If you play long enough to see 190 ALL bets made, your expectations are:

0 wins 37%
1 win 37%
2 wins 18%
3 wins 6%
4+ wins 2%

Using a poisson distribution
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:23:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
link to original post




I'll tell you what

once again you bumble up a wrong explanation based on personal observations and anecdotes

anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you


.
link to original post



I'm asking you to meet me and see for yourself. I'm even willing to buy lunch. No money involved. No risk. And no need to be nasty about it.

Okay... you dont want to do it.

Anyone else interested in watching four hours of craps to keep score on the number of shooters and how often the ALL is hit?

Lunch included.
link to original post

If you play long enough to see 190 ALL bets made, your expectations are:

0 wins 37%
1 win 37%
2 wins 18%
3 wins 6%
4+ wins 2%

Using a poisson distribution
link to original post



Gee... I guess I'm not a math denier after all. And, maybe not a liar either.
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:36:42 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Gee... I guess I'm not a math denier after all. And, maybe not a liar either.
link to original post

You are a denier, because you claim the bet will be won much more often than 1 in 190 times. This is according to your experience and beliefs (and possibly the phase of the moon), but disregarding math
Itís all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:38:29 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
link to original post




I'll tell you what

once again you bumble up a wrong explanation based on personal observations and anecdotes

anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you


.
link to original post



I'm asking you to meet me and see for yourself. I'm even willing to buy lunch. No money involved. No risk. And no need to be nasty about it.

Okay... you dont want to do it.

Anyone else interested in watching four hours of craps to keep score on the number of shooters and how often the ALL is hit?

Lunch included.
link to original post

If you play long enough to see 190 ALL bets made, your expectations are:

0 wins 37%
1 win 37%
2 wins 18%
3 wins 6%
4+ wins 2%

Using a poisson distribution
link to original post



Gee... I guess I'm not a math denier after all. And, maybe not a liar either.
link to original post





read carefully what he posted Alan - and nobody called you a liar



𝘇𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝟳𝟰 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟬 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀 (in the long run by adding the % of 0 and 1 together)



you will 2 get wins in 190 trials only 18% of the time

you will get 3 wins in 190 trials only 6% of the time

you will get more than 4 wins in 190 trials only 2% of the time



by considering it all together it 𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙨 𝙤𝙪𝙩 to be about one win in every 190 trials

because of the power in the equation of 𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘇𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝟯𝟳 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson


Gee... I guess I'm not a math denier after all. And, maybe not a liar either.
link to original post

You are a denier, because you claim the bet will be won much more often than 1 in 190 times. This is according to your experience and beliefs (and possible the phase of the moon), but disregarding math
link to original post



I never made such a claim. But I did say I've been at craps tables when the ALL has been thrown 2, 3, 4 times in a session. I dont know what happened when I wasnt at the table and maybe that's when the numbers average out?

I have been accused of being a math denier only for saying what I've seen. And not because I ever challenged any math.

Get off my case.

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