odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8826
March 27th, 2022 at 4:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet \$100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or \$300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are \$100 bettor then you obviously don't bet \$300. You'd make a \$25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to \$100 (\$94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable grasp it
link to original post

I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet \$300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry \$1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting \$25, \$100, or 1000K. For every \$100 you bet on the pass line you will lose \$1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?
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This is a case of a non-player evaluating a game ... there are just some things that have to be experienced to 'get it'

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Also we have some in this thread still setting up a straw man that they then enjoy tearing down. We get it. There is a house edge and we know we aren't designing a way to beat it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
• Posts: 1039
March 27th, 2022 at 7:25:10 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.
link to original post

Wrong. If you are making pass line bets only, over the long term your loss will be:

(bets won x payoff - bets lost) / (total bets made) = 7/495 = 1.41%

Taking this "4th grade arithmetic"* one step further, the standard deviation will be about: 1 / (total bets made)^.5

*quoting my mentor and teacher here - tuttigym
link to original post

Long live 4th grade arithmetic!! When I play, since I know that I cannot perform the actual 7/495 or 1.41% HA, I do not allow that math to enter my wager/playing strategies. My 4th grade approach is via actual probabilities which tries to overcome the -EV.

tuttigym
Ace2

Joined: Oct 2, 2017
• Posts: 1676
March 27th, 2022 at 7:29:37 AM permalink
That is a 4th grade approach because you will not overcome the EV in the long run.

But anything with an EV better than -100% and be "beaten" with variance over the short term
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 13347
March 27th, 2022 at 8:14:54 AM permalink
Substitute " luck" for variance and a true picture emerges. If one gets lucky, having more money on the board will give you better results than having less. Sounds like a great game plan.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
• Posts: 1186
March 27th, 2022 at 9:27:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 3469
Thanks for this post from:
March 27th, 2022 at 9:50:19 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.
link to original post

Agree with all this and super fair response. Think we are on same page.

One more item though. If you see someone at a \$15 table betting a \$25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet \$15 pass line with \$10 odds instead!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
• Posts: 1186
March 27th, 2022 at 10:03:13 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: TDVegas

Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.
link to original post

Agree with all this and super fair response. Think we are on same page.

One more item though. If you see someone at a \$15 table betting a \$25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet \$15 pass line with \$10 odds instead!
link to original post

I long ago gave up doing that. If one wants to tell others what to do…I would try and gauge “personality” beforehand. I’ve seen too many people give a look of “thanks, but mind your effing business” as far as receiving gambling strategy advice.

You know how many times I’ve seen people walk up to bubble craps after the point is established and then make a pass line wager? Can’t count. Your instinct tells them to place or buy the number….until you get someone telling you mind your F business. It might be done in a nice way as well.

To each his own. If it’s a beginner looking for advice or someone who looks like they genuinely don’t know the game, playing the first time, etc, I might offer. Otherwise, nope.
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 3088
March 27th, 2022 at 10:03:16 AM permalink
If you make \$20 buy bets on the 5, you'll get paid \$29 if it's vig on a win, \$28 if it's just vig which you would get with a place bet anyway.
If you win 300 buy bets, you would have won \$8700. If you won 300 place bets, you would have won \$8400. If you had won 300 odds bets on the 5, you would have won \$9,000. So from \$9000, you would be down 15 x \$20 bets on the buy bets, and 30 x \$20 bets down on the place bets. If you were betting \$6,000 (300 bets x \$20) on the pass line too (with single odds), you'd be down 1.41% of that which is \$84.60. So you'll save \$515.40 if you bet odds on the 5 instead of place betting in this scenario, and it would be a lot less built-in loss to overcome with your good luck streaks.

If I want to expand this out to the 4, 10, \$20 buy bets with vig on a win pay \$39, and \$20 place bets pay \$36. 300 x \$39 = \$11,700 and 300 x \$36 = \$10,800 and 300 x \$40 (odds payback) = \$12,000. So you'll be down 15 x \$20 bets for vig on a win but down 60 x \$20 bets for the place bet.

If I want to expand this out to the 6, 8, nobody buys bets on the 6, 8 (but they could on bubble craps, but I won't), but since a \$20 bet pays \$23.33 on bubble craps as a place bet (7/6), 300 x \$23.33 = \$7,000. If it was odds that would pay \$24, so 300 x \$24 = \$7,200. You'd be down 10 x \$20 bets for making place bets instead of odds bets, and the HE on the \$20 PL is still less than half of that \$200 difference.

If I have 300 PL with single odds bets on the 4/10, another 300 PL with single odds bets on the 5/9, and another 300 PL bets with single odds on the 6/8, I'll have bet \$18K on the PL & \$18K on the Odds. My expected loss on the PL would be \$253.80, multiply that by 30% for comps and there's \$76.14 in comps, more like \$30 on the bubble craps at 1 cent per \$6, or \$60 if the machine counted odds bets too.
If I wanted to play place bets for all those numbers (because I don't believe in vigs), I'd be down \$1200 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$2,000.
If I was doing buy bets on the 4,5,9,10 (like on bubble craps) I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$300 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$800.
If I was just doing buy bets on the 4, 10 (like at a table), I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$1,100.
Again, putting all your place bets onto the odds side erases ridiculous amounts of house edge.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 27, 2022
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 13347
March 27th, 2022 at 10:04:05 AM permalink
In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting \$25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the \$15 backed by \$10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a \$100 pass line player get treated better than a \$25 backed by \$75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
• Posts: 1186
March 27th, 2022 at 10:14:00 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting \$25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the \$15 backed by \$10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a \$100 pass line player get treated better than a \$25 backed by \$75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.
link to original post

It’s a valid point and kind of goes towards the idea I don’t tell others at the table how to structure your bets. They may have reasons I don’t know. I’ve seen “looks could kill” of players who think they know what they are doing telling others they are “playing wrong”. It’s not always a good interaction.