ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:03:19 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Two questions in the reality of a session or consecutive sessions: 1: Would you or anyone ever play that way? and 2. Why?


Two questions: 1: Have you or anybody you are acquainted with play that way or EVER witnessed or attempted that strategy? If so, 2: What were the actual results, and if not, why propose a betting plan that has virtually no chance of succeeding? But, in your defense, being outrageous can be lots of fun.

tuttigym



These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:07:48 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I just played for 10 hours of Bubble craps on a $30 buy-in and won 22 cents. So I cashed out before I was down to under a dollar again, but hadn't quite doubled my money. I'm sure there were several hundred rolls. I was betting $2 on the PL, or to switch things up $1 PL + $1 Odds. Sometimes I got down to "case bets" on the 4 or 10 and bet double odds and won (or lost). If I bet $2 PL + $4 Odds, I'd win $10 and get my $6 back. Do that 3 times quickly I can raise my bet to $1 PL + $2 Odds, or go for a $3 PL.


You definitely have too much time on your hands. How do you deal with the boredom? 22 cents, wow, did you report that to the IRS or will you wait for the casino to send you a 1099?

Quote: ChumpChange

I've got a WinCraps chart up and I was just betting PL with Odds. It says there were 188 wagers on the PL with 98 wins & 90 losses, for a net win of 8 or 4.25%. I bet a total of $44,700 and won $22,740 & lost $21,960 for a net win of $780 on the PL or 1.745%. On the PL with Odds section, it says there were 132 wagers, 60 wins, 72 losses for a net loss of 12 on the odds points, or -9.091%. It says I wagered $94,860, won $61,974 and lost $52,920, for a net win of $9,054, or 9.545%. I think I was betting triple odds in the triple digits (like 10X a $15 table). So I'm up $9,834 on a $10K buy-in; I was up $21K halfway through. This was over 662 rolls in a sim period of 5.5 hours. I was also trying a new strategy so these are the good results before Win Craps inevitably goes bonkers negative on me after it learns my strategy.


I just bought WinCraps. My computer blocked the download saying it would harm my system. Bummer. All "remedies" from Steen at WinCraps failed. Waiting for the disc.

So your next foray to the casino I guess you will buy in for what, $10,000? Hope to be able to bet a total of $44,700 during your session to win $22,740 and win a net of $780? In actual real time, how long do you estimate that would take? Any potty or snack breaks? Just asking.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:09:33 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.



Oh! So nothing is real. OK, I get it now.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:21:31 AM permalink
I'll probably buy-in for $60 next time and bet $2 PL + $2 Odds (or $2 PB 6 or 8). I seem to have better luck just betting one or two numbers, but when I roll 26 times in a row before hitting my point and I only hit my place bet once, luck is just avoiding me like the plague.
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:22:57 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

These are only expected results, based on the odds. With variance…anything can happen. Over prolonged play, years, decades….I’m going to suggest it’s going to be closer to $1.41 than not.


So does the randomness of the game actually mess up expected results and variance? If so, why rely on the formula and concept of the 1.41 HA and why embrace it?

I need to tell you that being as old as I am, I am not sure how many years I have left, certainly not decades.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 10:33:22 AM permalink
If you win $100 and the HA over the time of your session was $100, you would have won $200 without that HA.
AlanMendelson
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June 27th, 2021 at 11:54:53 AM permalink
Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.
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June 27th, 2021 at 12:24:15 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.



Mr. Mendelson: LOL. So your play does not contribute to casino profits and mine does? How can they possibly survive? Without using "THE math,"(dissecting bets according to perceived HA and/or EV), and because you believe me to be totally incompetent with everything craps, provide me with a simple road map that you personally use that allows you winning sessions a comfortable majority of the time. I will start with a buy-in of $600. My modest win target is $250-$300 for the session. The table minimum is $15. The time length of the session should not exceed 90 minutes because I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude. You up for the throw down?

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 12:32:09 PM permalink
Save yourself some grief. Stop playing. In fact, put yourself on a self exclusion list. Block this website and anything to do with gambling. Enjoy your years.
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June 27th, 2021 at 12:35:46 PM permalink
I am sorry; I am scratching my head on that one. How does one know that the HA is $100 when I win $100. Beating the HA for any amount is a + multiplier for the player over the house because the player starts with a negative expectation for any session. Isn't that what the HA is all about?

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ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 12:42:25 PM permalink
Get back to me after you roll a 12 on the come-out 20 times with your $10 pass line bet. That would be an HA of $100, and you lost another $100 in the process.
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June 27th, 2021 at 12:53:08 PM permalink
There is no grief only lots of fun. Like many critics, Mr. Mendelson, dodging specific questions, when confronted with reality should give others pause to ones credibility.

Gambling, for me, is a recreational diversion, a hobby if you will. Knock on wood, my health is good, my mobility is good, my mind and intellect are competent, and my sense of humor allows me to enjoy my years without taking myself too seriously.

I could only wish that your life is as rich and fulfilling as mine was and is.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:01:25 PM permalink
Mr. Chump c: Why would I do that? That is not reality. You would not do that nor would any "competent' thinking player. Provide a real, usable example if you can.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:04:58 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Get back to me after you roll a 12 on the come-out 20 times with your $10 pass line bet. That would be an HA of $100, and you lost another $100 in the process.



Why would I do that? It is not reality.

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ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:06:18 PM permalink
The HA will reduce your potential winnings and increase your potential losses by an amount certain. What your actual winnings or losses are are unknown, but the HA is always there and growing.

If we go back to that WinCraps report I wrote about earlier but neglected to mention, the HA on the pass line was -$632.10 and my net win on the pass line was $780. So WinCraps will effortlessly calculate the HA for me down to 1.4141%. There was no HA on the triple odds bets, and my net odds bets wins were more than 10X my pass line bet wins. If there was no HA on the pass line, I would have nearly doubled what I won on the pass line bets.
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:27:55 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The HA will reduce your potential winnings and increase your potential losses by an amount certain. What your actual winnings or losses are are unknown, but the HA is always there and growing.


So what I acknowledged before IS CORRECT. Leaving the table a winner gives the player a plus multiplier over the HA or HE.

Quote: ChumpChange

If we go back to that WinCraps report I wrote about earlier but neglected to mention, the HA on the pass line was -$632.10 and my net win on the pass line was $780. So WinCraps will effortlessly calculate the HA for me down to 1.4141%. There was no HA on the triple odds bets, and my net odds bets wins were more than 10X my pass line bet wins. If there was no HA on the pass line, I would have nearly doubled what I won on the pass line bets.



Repeating your simulation does not make it real. Unless you personally would buy-in at whatever amount to reach those monetary wagering goals at the table at a real session and followed the exact betting system in your simulation, you cannot possibly know for certain the accuracy of the results above because REAL craps played in the casino is RANDOM, and computer simulations CANNOT do random.

tuttigym
ChumpChange
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:40:51 PM permalink
I can't keep arguing like I do, but I said early in this thread you are an HA denier, and no amount of math will work for you.
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June 27th, 2021 at 1:51:17 PM permalink
Tuttigym you talk about the reality of craps. So here's the reality of craps.

Craps is a negative expectation game. The more you play the more you are expected to lose.

No betting formula or scheme will make craps a positive expectation game.

Every hedge bet only adds to the likelihood that the house will win. Even if you hedge a final bet in Bonus craps or the Firebet you are giving the house more of your money as you can't win both the hedge and the final bet.

The free odds are paid at true odds but are linked to the odds of winning the point. Hence free odds is a misnomer; they aren't free at all. But the odds bet is paid at true odds, even if they are at a disadvantage of winning.

You will not change these truths no matter how you bet. Your only chance to win at craps is to be able to throw the dice to improve the chance that favorable numbers will appear. Betting strategies and schemes will fail.

Deal with it.
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June 27th, 2021 at 2:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I can't keep arguing like I do, but I said early in this thread you are an HA denier, and no amount of math will work for you.


I am NOT a HA denier. I have stated many times in several ways that the house always, with one exception in craps, has the advantage and edge. I do not "argue." What I do not accept is a math narrative widely acclaimed as gospel that "THE math" is reality, because it has never been done.

Computer simulations have been programed to reflect that "math" to the exclusion of what is random and variable which is exhibited in real time at any given gambling venue.

When I go to the table to play, my expectation is that I will win not because I don't believe the house consistently has advantages over any given bet, but that the real math of 30 ways to win over only six ways to lose gives me a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice after the point is established. That one concept allows me to disregard the "establishment's" unreal HA depiction.

"Establishment" players always seem to project everything negative. They have stifled and constricted their approach to the game, and they stress out, like here in this forum, when anyone goes against the grain and intellectually pushes back.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 2:29:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym: you should not be playing craps.



Mr. Mendelson: When you see your children or grand children continually making similar mistakes, do you impart that same kind of wisdom and tell them to just give up and go away?
Does your frustration always result in such negativity and rejection?
Very sad and disappointing.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 2:44:47 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym you talk about the reality of craps. So here's the reality of craps.

Craps is a negative expectation game. The more you play the more you are expected to lose.

No betting formula or scheme will make craps a positive expectation game.

Every hedge bet only adds to the likelihood that the house will win. Even if you hedge a final bet in Bonus craps or the Firebet you are giving the house more of your money as you can't win both the hedge and the final bet.

The free odds are paid at true odds but are linked to the odds of winning the point. Hence free odds is a misnomer; they aren't free at all. But the odds bet is paid at true odds, even if they are at a disadvantage of winning.

You will not change these truths no matter how you bet. Your only chance to win at craps is to be able to throw the dice to improve the chance that favorable numbers will appear. Betting strategies and schemes will fail.

Deal with it.


Mr. Mendelson: YOU need to change the pronouns in your post from "you" to "I" as well as the verb conjugations from "are" to "am." That would be more appropriate.

The gospel by Mendelson needs to be heeded by all craps player participants of this forum to save their bank accounts, sanity, and retirement income.

Other than the perceived fact that you are going to lose at the tables, can you offer anything positive.

That is something you need to deal with

tuttigym.
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June 27th, 2021 at 2:50:25 PM permalink
Are you blind?

He offered you something positive when he wrote: "Your only chance to win at craps is to be able to throw the dice to improve the chance that favorable numbers will appear."

Eureka!

Who knew that you can control / influence dem bones simply by adjusting your throw ... what a novel idea!

Follow his advice and you'll soon need a wheelbarrow to haul your winnings out through the maw of the casino.
"What, me worry?"
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June 27th, 2021 at 3:03:58 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. Mendelson: YOU need to change the pronouns in your post from "you" to "I" as well as the verb conjugations from "are" to "am." That would be more appropriate.

The gospel by Mendelson needs to be heeded by all craps player participants of this forum to save their bank accounts, sanity, and retirement income.

Other than the perceived fact that you are going to lose at the tables, can you offer anything positive.

That is something you need to deal with

tuttigym.



Let me sum it up for you: you can't beat the game of craps.
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June 27th, 2021 at 4:15:42 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I can't keep arguing like I do, but I said early in this thread you are an HA denier, and no amount of math will work for you.



Mr. Chumpc: What I am denying is the bogus (my interpretation) 1.41% HA of the PL bet. So stay with me and answer these simple questions:
If the point is 4 or 10, is the house's advantage in winning the PL bet: a) greater than 1.41%; b) less than 1.41%; or c) equal to 1.41%?

If the point is 5 or 9, is the house's advantage of winning the PL bet a) greater than 1.41%; b) less than 1.41%; or c) equal to 1.41%?

If the point is 6 or 8, is the house's advantage of winning the PL bet a) greater than 1.41%; b) less than 1.41%; or c) equal to 1.41%?

I will await your answer(s) and then comment.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 4:24:32 PM permalink
We must realize there are two cycles to this game. Come out and point cycle. You have a 8-4 advantage on the come out. The point cycle offers disadvantages of 5-6, or 4-6, or 3-6. Add them all up and you have a disadvantage of 1.41%. You cannot compare apples to oranges to grapefruits!

How many here went through this argument a dozen years ago or so? Heeees baaaaaaack!

And again thanks for the tee shirt you gave me many years ago! Still shoot at The Beau?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
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June 27th, 2021 at 7:55:17 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

We must realize there are two cycles to this game. Come out and point cycle. You have a 8-4 advantage on the come out. The point cycle offers disadvantages of 5-6, or 4-6, or 3-6. Add them all up and you have a disadvantage of 1.41%. You cannot compare apples to oranges to grapefruits!


Hey DeMango: Hope you are well. Have not been staying at the Beau in about 4 years as my Host, who was a fraternity brother, left for greener pastures. There is no comparison here. You just illustrated the true picture of the game by isolating the "two cycles." During that second and most prominent portion is where losing accelerates. One cannot deny that fact. Those "disadvantages" above mathematically offer HA's of from 16+% to 50%. That is my message and has been throughout. You and the others want to combine the two cycles to 1.41% have at it, but unless the full story is related of the two distinct cycles, "Establishment" participants will continue to mislead the novice, the truly uninformed, and the gullible.

Quote: DeMango} And again thanks for the tee shirt you gave me many years ago! Still shoot at The Beau? [/q



You still playing crapless craps?? Mississippi Stud? Are practicing "controlling" and dice "influencing"? Have you washed the shirt yet?
I wish you well.

tuttigym

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June 27th, 2021 at 8:01:38 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You and the others want to combine the two cycles to 1.41% have at it, but unless the full story is related of the two distinct cycles (...)



Are you placing pass line wagers after the point is established?

If not, then your chances of winning are the combination of both "cycles".
May the cards fall in your favor.
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:28:42 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Who knew that you can control / influence dem bones simply by adjusting your throw ... what a novel idea!


MrV: Are you a proponent of "controlling" and dice "influencing"? How is that going for you?

A short anecdote for you:

Several years ago, I was a participant on the Scoblete forum. Those folks tried to convince me to take their classes and "learn" the "techniques". I was positive it was a sham and told them so. There came a time when a group of about 12 or so "controllers" had a get together in Biloxi, and they were nice enough to have me join them. I did. These guys were serious about the "skill" and most all practiced religiously on their own tables at home spending hours and hundreds of practice tosses daily.

That first night we all met at the table. The results were stunning. Each player had their turn with the dice twice during that session. Only one of the 24 turns had a roll of more than one point conversion. The rest had a 7 out within 7 tosses after their point was established. Only one shooter converted three points and had a significant hand of about 21 throws. Their collective disappointment was heavy. But they were resilient and remained upbeat. A really great group and, ultimately for me, a wonderful memory of a friendly gathering.

I left the next day, so I can't tell you of their results,

So MrV, I am NOT blind; I am just not convinced that "controlling" works to any degree better than just shaking them up and tossing them down the felt aand hitting that back titted wall.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:39:11 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

MrV: Are you a proponent of "controlling" and dice "influencing"? How is that going for you?

A short anecdote for you:

Several years ago, I was a participant on the Scoblete forum. Those folks tried to convince me to take their classes and "learn" the "techniques". I was positive it was a sham and told them so. There came a time when a group of about 12 or so "controllers" had a get together in Biloxi, and they were nice enough to have me join them. I did. These guys were serious about the "skill" and most all practiced religiously on their own tables at home spending hours and hundreds of practice tosses daily.

That first night we all met at the table. The results were stunning. Each player had their turn with the dice twice during that session. Only one of the 24 turns had a roll of more than one point conversion. The rest had a 7 out within 7 tosses after their point was established. Only one shooter converted three points and had a significant hand of about 21 throws. Their collective disappointment was heavy. But they were resilient and remained upbeat. A really great group and, ultimately for me, a wonderful memory of a friendly gathering.

I left the next day, so I can't tell you of their results,

So MrV, I am NOT blind; I am just not convinced that "controlling" works to any degree better than just shaking them up and tossing them down the felt aand hitting that back titted wall.

tuttigym



Then you cannot challenge the math of the game. Craps is negative expectation. Deal with it.
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:39:32 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Are you placing pass line wagers after the point is established?

If not, then your chances of winning are the combination of both "cycles".



Mr Dieter: As I related before, I use the Doey/Don't so my wagering depends on the point established, how the table is playing, and, get ready to pounce, my gut feeling. Sometimes I do not play the hand at all simply because the shooter had poor outcomes in previous tries. Have I guessed wrong? Absolutely, but I have also guessed correctly. And the chances of losing are the same combination. There is NO right answer. I am well aware.

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June 27th, 2021 at 8:50:53 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Then you cannot challenge the math of the game. Craps is negative expectation. Deal with it.


Mr. Mendelson, I can challenge anything. Your inability to come to terms with the point cycle's inflated negative HA is disappointing. Are those not a "negative expectations"? You just somehow can't deal with the truth offered in a format that you wish to ignore. Deal with that.

tuttigym
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June 27th, 2021 at 8:52:23 PM permalink
If he's asking what the HA on a put bet is without the odds, because every answer I can find in 5 minutes adds odds of 5X or 10X or 20X.

I'm gonna refigure. 24 ways to win plus 36 ways to lose out of 60 bets. 60 x $10 bets = $600 bet, I win 24 x $10 = $240 plus $240 of my original wager returned = $480 of my $600 for a $120 loss. -$120/$600 = 20% HA.

Since I can't move my PL bet around after the come-out, checking for the HA on individual points is meaningless. You want an overall HA on all the points if they were put bets put there by the dice on the come-out with no benefit of the 7-11, and it's 20%.

I've been wondering about this question for a couple weeks and I'm glad I answered it for myself.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 27, 2021
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June 27th, 2021 at 9:21:11 PM permalink
Smarter people than you or me tuttigym have figured the math of the game. Why are you trying to change the math?

The math is the math. Your results may be different. But that doesn't mean the math is wrong.

The point of four according to the math should win one out of three times. You might win the point of 4 more times or fewer times. That doesn't mean the math that says the point of four will win one out of three times is wrong.

If you think the point of four as defined by the math is not expected to win one out of three times what do you believe the correct value is and WHY?
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June 27th, 2021 at 9:47:02 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


I use the Doey/Don't so my wagering depends on the point established, how the table is playing, and, get ready to pounce, my gut feeling.



Cancellation betting is the biggest problem here.

The house still takes a bite; they have structured the wagers so that you'll usually push, except for the rare instance you lose.

You came to gamble, right?
Pick a side; pay your money; take your chances.
May the cards fall in your favor.
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June 28th, 2021 at 4:58:15 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I did not ask about the HA on Don't Pass Bets

One cannot just shrug off the most VALID question of this discussion by saying nothing changes regarding the PL bet after the point is established. That bet is the 800 lb. gorilla in the room; the albatross around the player's neck, the absolute reason "THE math" surrounding the 1.41% HA is NOT reality. The House mandates that the PL bet must stay on the table knowing that winning for the player has flipped big time in favor of the house. "Does not change."? Everything changes and by dismissing the question and the real answers is a disservice. Why not acknowledge the, in any discussion of the PL HA, the real pitfalls of the bet so that the uninitiated might be fully informed, which is your stated mission?



(Quote clipped, relevance)

First of all, thank you for the non-quoted compliment at the end of your post.

My simple answer to this question is because the antithesis of the proposition is true for the Don't Pass bet, which is why you look at the total expected value and probabilities as of the time that the bet is made. The House does mandate that the PL bet stay up after a point is established, and similarly, a player SHOULD, "Mandate," that a DP bet stays up at the time the point is established.

Anyway, if you're suggesting that I should acknowledge that---say a five having been established---that a seven is more likely to come than another five, then all I can say is, "Acknowledged as obvious."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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June 28th, 2021 at 5:01:23 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You definitely have too much time on your hands. How do you deal with the boredom? 22 cents, wow, did you report that to the IRS or will you wait for the casino to send you a 1099?




(Quote clipped, relevance)

That's certainly rude. I thought we weren't judging what people do with their own time and money, here?

I like to play UTH on WoO with a buy-in of $0 real money and $5,000 virtual dollars. It's a fun game, and if I ever get the, 'Urge,' to play a table game in a live casino, then it would probably be that one again...so I want to have strategy pretty much down cold.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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June 28th, 2021 at 5:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

MrV: Are you a proponent of "controlling" and dice "influencing"? How is that going for you?

A short anecdote for you:

Several years ago, I was a participant on the Scoblete forum. Those folks tried to convince me to take their classes and "learn" the "techniques". I was positive it was a sham and told them so. There came a time when a group of about 12 or so "controllers" had a get together in Biloxi, and they were nice enough to have me join them. I did. These guys were serious about the "skill" and most all practiced religiously on their own tables at home spending hours and hundreds of practice tosses daily.

That first night we all met at the table. The results were stunning. Each player had their turn with the dice twice during that session. Only one of the 24 turns had a roll of more than one point conversion. The rest had a 7 out within 7 tosses after their point was established. Only one shooter converted three points and had a significant hand of about 21 throws. Their collective disappointment was heavy. But they were resilient and remained upbeat. A really great group and, ultimately for me, a wonderful memory of a friendly gathering.

I left the next day, so I can't tell you of their results,

So MrV, I am NOT blind; I am just not convinced that "controlling" works to any degree better than just shaking them up and tossing them down the felt aand hitting that back titted wall.

tuttigym



With a low enough minimum, I'd roll those bones with Scoblete anytime. I don't think I'd learn how to play a winning game of Craps, but the company would be well worth the expected loss. Really smart and witty dude.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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June 28th, 2021 at 5:10:06 AM permalink
Tutti…. There is no one here who is telling you not to go to the casino and have fun with your system. There is no one telling you that you may not get lucky and actually win that day.

The kind members have been trying to explain to you concepts like house edge and variance, probably not enough about variance, so that you have an idea of likely outcomes for you.

I play craps quite infrequently. I am up over my lifetime SOLELY due to some ridiculous good luck. But I won’t try and make it seem like I had some system that I could ever expect to repeat.

A few of your posts you mention you want to go have entertainment at the casino. Stop arguing with the forum and just go have fun. Go win or lose a few hundred $$.
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June 28th, 2021 at 6:04:33 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange


These are theoretical results you should expect, and your luck may vary.



Quote: tuttigym

Oh! So nothing is real. OK, I get it now.



The events of the future are never real until they happen. "Expected Value" is just the chatter of dusty intellects; it is nothing more than mathematicians j**king off into a Kleenex.

The true expectation is really a probability distribution around the so-called 'Expected Value.' Because we don't really expect that you'll get the expected value. So. Welcome to Wonderland.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
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June 28th, 2021 at 10:29:21 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If he's asking what the HA on a put bet is without the odds


I do not know who "he" is. I am not discussing "put" bets or whatever that relationship is to HA.

Quote: ChumpChange

I've been wondering about this question for a couple weeks and I'm glad I answered it for myself.


I don't think I provided that question, but I am glad you have become enlightened on something for which you had a question.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 10:56:04 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Smarter people than you or me tuttigym have figured the math of the game. Why are you trying to change the math?

The math is the math. Your results may be different. But that doesn't mean the math is wrong.


Mr. Mendelson: I am not trying to "change" the math. I am expanding the "math" probabilities.

Consider those folks who are new, or uninformed, or worse yet gullible. Their thought processes might be working or telling their brain: "Mr. Mendelson continues to say craps is a negative expectation game, and no matter what, I am going to lose. I get that, but I am going to lose less than 1.5% of my bankroll during all of my play because the HA on PL bets is only 1.41% AND there is NO HA on the free odds bet tied in. So, I can buy-in for $200 at that $10 table over there, play the PL + free odds for hours, and maybe only lose a few dollars unless I get really lucky and defeat that really small 1.41% HA."

Those gullible folks and the newbies you are talking to, are giving you their blind allegiance and faith because you refuse to expand the truth of the expected losses associated the PL + free odds wagering. You need to deal with the whole truth and set your ego aside.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:15:11 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Cancellation betting is the biggest problem here.


Mr. Dieter: If the PL bet is soooo great that it should not be "cancelled" by players such as myself, then why do the vast vast majority of players bet the table MINIMUM? What is it that makes one believe that on a $5 table that miniscule $5 opening bet is going to make some kind of difference?? Is one to believe that the player should bet $25 or $50 on the PL on a $5 table? Would you play that way?

Quote: Dieter

You came to gamble, right?
Pick a side; pay your money; take your chances.



I do, and I get one side or two sides or a third choice which is a combination of both. For me, it is empowering.

tuttigym.
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:27:46 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

First of all, thank you for the non-quoted compliment at the end of your post.


You are welcome. I want to acknowledge your self-degradation, creativity, and LOL sense of humor you posted on other threads. Those multiple self descriptions are hilarious.

Quote: Mission146

My simple answer to this question is because the antithesis of the proposition is true for the Don't Pass bet, which is why you look at the total expected value and probabilities as of the time that the bet is made. The House does mandate that the PL bet stay up after a point is established, and similarly, a player SHOULD, "Mandate," that a DP bet stays up at the time the point is established.



For me, playing the Doey/Don't allows me to disregard that "Mandate."

Quote: Mission 146

Anyway, if you're suggesting that I should acknowledge that---say a five having been established---that a seven is more likely to come than another five, then all I can say is, "Acknowledged as obvious."


Thank you for that.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:38:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146



(Quote clipped, relevance)

That's certainly rude. I thought we weren't judging what people do with their own time and money, here?


I did not mean to be rude or snarky with those comments, and if they were taken that way, I apologize. I meant it as a compliment to be committed to the game for such a long session with the documented results. I personally could never do it.

Quote: Mission 146

I like to play UTH on WoO with a buy-in of $0 real money and $5,000 virtual dollars. It's a fun game, and if I ever get the, 'Urge,' to play a table game in a live casino, then it would probably be that one again...so I want to have strategy pretty much down cold.



UTH?? I do the same with his virtual craps game. The only bets I miss in his simulation are hop bets, otherwise the practice is good, but after a time can be figured out and beaten often. I miss the real randomness. Can't have everything I guess, but free is great.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:49:04 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

The events of the future are never real until they happen. "Expected Value" is just the chatter of dusty intellects; it is nothing more than mathematicians j**king off into a Kleenex.

The true expectation is really a probability distribution around the so-called 'Expected Value.' Because we don't really expect that you'll get the expected value. So. Welcome to Wonderland.



Mr. Gordon888: Do not tell Mr. Mendelson that, and thank you. I wish I had said the above. It is beyond profound, and I will steal that sentiment and use it often.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 11:50:35 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

If the PL bet is soooo great that it should not be "cancelled" by players such as myself



(clipped)

You're cancelling your chance of winning.
You're not cancelling the house's chance of winning.

You can make other bets, of course. Maybe one of those will win.


Cancellation betting may keep you in the game, but I doubt that paying your wins with chips you just lost is a prudent way to play.
May the cards fall in your favor.
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June 28th, 2021 at 12:04:37 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. Mendelson: I am not trying to "change" the math. I am expanding the "math" probabilities.

Consider those folks who are new, or uninformed, or worse yet gullible. Their thought processes might be working or telling their brain: "Mr. Mendelson continues to say craps is a negative expectation game, and no matter what, I am going to lose. I get that, but I am going to lose less than 1.5% of my bankroll during all of my play because the HA on PL bets is only 1.41% AND there is NO HA on the free odds bet tied in. So, I can buy-in for $200 at that $10 table over there, play the PL + free odds for hours, and maybe only lose a few dollars unless I get really lucky and defeat that really small 1.41% HA."

Those gullible folks and the newbies you are talking to, are giving you their blind allegiance and faith because you refuse to expand the truth of the expected losses associated the PL + free odds wagering. You need to deal with the whole truth and set your ego aside.

tuttigym



Wow. Are you saying that the general public thinks "expected return" is a law and a guarantee?
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June 28th, 2021 at 2:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Wow. Are you saying that the general public thinks "expected return" is a law and a guarantee?


The general public believes that the democrats never lie. They have believed that "climate change, i.e., global warming was going to destroy the planet in a 10 year period of time since the mid '80's. They believe that there is "systemic racism" in every corner of the country. They believe The New York Times editorial page. They believe that there is NO southern border crisis. The "general public" is uninformed, gullible, and susceptible to the loudest voices making the greatest amount of noise. They believe our kids are educated and have the highest of critical thinking skills. All in all, they believe in the cancel culture, BLM, and the 1.41 HA on PL bets because that is all that is out there.

tuttigym
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June 28th, 2021 at 2:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The general public believes that the democrats never lie. They have believed that "climate change, i.e., global warming was going to destroy the planet in a 10 year period of time since the mid '80's. They believe that there is "systemic racism" in every corner of the country. They believe The New York Times editorial page. They believe that there is NO southern border crisis. The "general public" is uninformed, gullible, and susceptible to the loudest voices making the greatest amount of noise. They believe our kids are educated and have the highest of critical thinking skills. All in all, they believe in the cancel culture, BLM, and the 1.41 HA on PL bets because that is all that is out there.



Political statement. Three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
daveyandersen1
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June 28th, 2021 at 2:55:25 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Last Memorial Day I went to Harrah's Casino in Cherokee, NC, about 2 hrs. drive from home, for some gambling action. To my dismay, the table minimums were $25. I immediately turned away, played some slots, and left very disappointed. Time passed and I thought out a plan, which I have NOT tried yet, on how to defeat the $25 casino imposed minimum with legal small bets ($3-15), still use the $25 minimum when necessary, play for an hour or more without going bankrupt on a "cold" or "choppy" table, and possibly walking away winning. So to those of you forum player/participants, using your creative juices, tell us how one would attack those greedy casinos and the $25 table minimum using those small table legal bets in conjunction with the $25 minimum as required. Your buy-in should be $500. Your plan can be point specific. After a week of answers, I will reveal my plan or "system."

Hey tuttigym try this M.ake 1 dollar bets on any prop bets you want. say 3$ on the hop 7s or 3$ on hop 6 or8 or5$ horns or 1$ any crap or a 1$yo you have 500$ to go thru right??Bet all those STUPID bets in the middle of the table Don't forget to hop any # for $2..You haven't made a 25$ bet yet.. just take your pick or combination of these bets.. you just might hit on some of them... If you do take that win and bet a lay with those winnings Lay a 5 or 9 for 30$$ It might hit... just play it by what #s are hitting. What the hell it's just for entertainment . Right?? also try betting the hard ways for 1 dollar each and parly like crazy if one or all hit...I might do this myself sometime but I wont go thru the whole 500$ Thats for sure.. I know all about house edge on these bets but you cant concern yourself with that if you try this..
davey
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