Defeating the $25 Table Minimum
June 20th, 2021 at 2:39:04 PM
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Last Memorial Day I went to Harrah's Casino in Cherokee, NC, about 2 hrs. drive from home, for some gambling action. To my dismay, the table minimums were $25. I immediately turned away, played some slots, and left very disappointed. Time passed and I thought out a plan, which I have NOT tried yet, on how to defeat the $25 casino imposed minimum with legal small bets ($3-15), still use the $25 minimum when necessary, play for an hour or more without going bankrupt on a "cold" or "choppy" table, and possibly walking away winning. So to those of you forum player/participants, using your creative juices, tell us how one would attack those greedy casinos and the $25 table minimum using those small table legal bets in conjunction with the $25 minimum as required. Your buy-in should be $500. Your plan can be point specific. After a week of answers, I will reveal my plan or "system."
June 20th, 2021 at 3:12:18 PM
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Maybe drive on up to their less amenities/touristy location in Murphy if Cherokee table minimums are too high. Your “system” is going to be wasted energy, but whatever floats your boat.
June 20th, 2021 at 3:16:56 PM
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I should really limit my HA to 2%. 6:5 Blackjack anyone? My buy-in is $30-$60, so I'll have to stick to the $2 bubble craps or $3 roulette machines.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 20, 2021
June 20th, 2021 at 6:16:07 PM
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As opposed to the old me, when unhappy with the minimum, I'm going to avoid making Come bets to keep from having too much in action. When I want to press, I'll add to the free odds instead of making a Come bet, progressively up to the full 10x where available like Cherokee. As you've heard me say before, ha!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 20th, 2021 at 8:28:08 PM
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Quote: tuttigymLast Memorial Day I went to Harrah's Casino in Cherokee, NC, about 2 hrs. drive from home, for some gambling action. To my dismay, the table minimums were $25. I immediately turned away, played some slots, and left very disappointed. Time passed and I thought out a plan, which I have NOT tried yet, on how to defeat the $25 casino imposed minimum with legal small bets ($3-15), still use the $25 minimum when necessary, play for an hour or more without going bankrupt on a "cold" or "choppy" table, and possibly walking away winning. So to those of you forum player/participants, using your creative juices, tell us how one would attack those greedy casinos and the $25 table minimum using those small table legal bets in conjunction with the $25 minimum as required. Your buy-in should be $500. Your plan can be point specific. After a week of answers, I will reveal my plan or "system."
Please don’t tell us you will bet $40 on the pass line and $25 on the don’t pass, thus in your mind really betting $15 on the pass line? And just ignore when a 12 is rolled? Assuming you were talking about craps?
June 21st, 2021 at 12:28:50 AM
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Walk out - go somewhere else.
Unless you're an AP or other reasons, casinos offer entertainment at a cost. The original aim of WoO was to reduce this cost by pointing out better ways to play games. If you feel the perceived cost is too high then leave it for others.
Last week I walked into a pub and seeing their range of beers only liked one. When the bar staff said they'd run out of that one, I gave my excuses and walked out. That particular pub used to have a range of good beers but their choice has gone down. However there are enough people who enjoy that type of beer.
It's the same with 6/5 BJ!
Unless you're an AP or other reasons, casinos offer entertainment at a cost. The original aim of WoO was to reduce this cost by pointing out better ways to play games. If you feel the perceived cost is too high then leave it for others.
Last week I walked into a pub and seeing their range of beers only liked one. When the bar staff said they'd run out of that one, I gave my excuses and walked out. That particular pub used to have a range of good beers but their choice has gone down. However there are enough people who enjoy that type of beer.
It's the same with 6/5 BJ!
June 21st, 2021 at 5:44:44 AM
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i usually just ask - did you try asking?
June 21st, 2021 at 12:09:17 PM
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Even 500$ for a session at $25 minimum craps is not going to last long.
If you don't cover at least two numbers you are playing with 1/10 or more of your session stake on each hand. Most players don't have
the discipline to avoid betting more when they "feel" a hot roll is happening. If their feeling is wrong, they've shot even more of their stake
in lickety-split.
If you need to have more than a couple numbers in action, go to LAS or somewhere that has casinos with a lower rent.
If you don't cover at least two numbers you are playing with 1/10 or more of your session stake on each hand. Most players don't have
the discipline to avoid betting more when they "feel" a hot roll is happening. If their feeling is wrong, they've shot even more of their stake
in lickety-split.
If you need to have more than a couple numbers in action, go to LAS or somewhere that has casinos with a lower rent.
June 21st, 2021 at 12:23:48 PM
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Mr.3200: Thanks for the response. My drive to Cherokee is on four lane roads all the way with the short exception of about a mile outside Clayton, GA. The road to Murphy is two lane, lots turns to negotiate at less than 30 mph, and other dangers such as wondering deer. The inflated table minimum was because of Memorial Day. It was not permanent although I am confident that weekend evenings will send those minimums back to $25.
So you must be clairvoyant as to the internal workings of my "system." That "gift" would be of more productive use at the roulette table.
tuttigym
So you must be clairvoyant as to the internal workings of my "system." That "gift" would be of more productive use at the roulette table.
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 12:32:20 PM
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If the only available craps table has a $25 minimum, and if you are bound and determined to play craps and want a system that might give you a chance to bet at the $25 level, then I suggest the following:
Bet a buck each on hard six and eight.
Yeah, horrible HA...anyway, keep making the bet, every shooter.
When it hits increase the bet on each a couple units, and regress to a buck each if the profit is lost.
If you get a hit at the higher level then you should have enough money to make a few $25 bets.
Bet a buck each on hard six and eight.
Yeah, horrible HA...anyway, keep making the bet, every shooter.
When it hits increase the bet on each a couple units, and regress to a buck each if the profit is lost.
If you get a hit at the higher level then you should have enough money to make a few $25 bets.
"What, me worry?"
June 21st, 2021 at 12:39:16 PM
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Mr.SP: Thanks for your thoughtful response. You are close. My personal craps gambling philosophy regarding the PL wager as the ultimate con of the casino which offers a one roll two to one advantage to the shooter only to have the "house" take away that advantage when a point is established. That being said, I would start any hand with $25 PL; $25 DP + $1 on the 12. I have now created, for me, table options based on the point established, and I basically break even with the come-out roll. The $1 is collateral damage in most cases. More to follow if you would like to carry your additional thoughts and creativity forward.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 12:46:20 PM
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Mr Chump c: Thanks for your reply. Your post strongly suggests that you are NOT a player, not any kind of a risk taker, but will jump into a gambling conversation without any real knowledge or table experience. How does what you say or write have any validity to those you address??
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 1:06:06 PM
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Mr. C Patrick: My thread stated that I did walk out. Cherokee has only one casino, so I did not play. The thread IS attempting to find players who can think and play "outside the box." Traditional or "establishment" players have their feet "planted in cement" when it comes to their play which usually results in multiple losses and mental or emotional nausea. One plays to win but also to have fun. That is what I am trying to establish.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 1:08:48 PM
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Mr. Heatmap: I did not ask, but in my defense, Harrah's does not make exceptions and the tables were jammed.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 1:19:43 PM
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Mr. onebok: Thanks for your thoughtful response. You are very correct in your assessment of the $500 buy-in at the $25 table. "Establishment" players will wager as you have written because they cannot be creative in their wagers AND they are, for the most part undisciplined trying to recover losses with larger and more foolish bets. My thread specifies bets between $3 -$15 (acceptable) even at the $25 table. Think about it a little more. Two or three numbers can be played.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 1:53:02 PM
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Save your money and take a trip out to Nevada where you have better options when it comes to playing BJ. My friend from Connecticut doesn't like playing at the casinos in the NE for that reason, the minimum bet is too high. He's staying on Freemont St in Vegas then heading up to Reno for a few days where $5 BJ and 3:2 payouts still exists at many casinos.
June 21st, 2021 at 2:00:23 PM
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Quote: tuttigym... The inflated table minimum was because of Memorial Day. It was not permanent although I am confident that weekend evenings will send those minimums back to $25.
Sunday and Monday a week prior to your visit, I was at Harrah's Cherokee and met up with our fellow member odiousgambit. (He made a blog post about our experiences.) While I was there, the crap table minimum was $25 at some tables and $15 at others. Even that is pricier than I like, but I was winning, so I tolerated the tariff for a while. On Monday we spent a little time at their "Roll-to-Win" craps table with a $5 minimum. That is discussed some in OG's blog entry.
June 21st, 2021 at 3:31:07 PM
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Doc: I believe the holiday crowd play was so substantial that the "demand" exceeded the "supply" so that "market forces" allowed for the inflationary table minimums to rise. Mid-week play will subside and the tables will not be so crowded with minimums retreating.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 3:48:53 PM
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Quote: MrVIf the only available craps table has a $25 minimum, and if you are bound and determined to play craps and want a system that might give you a chance to bet at the $25 level, then I suggest the following:
Bet a buck each on hard six and eight.
Yeah, horrible HA...anyway, keep making the bet, every shooter.
When it hits increase the bet on each a couple units, and regress to a buck each if the profit is lost.
If you get a hit at the higher level then you should have enough money to make a few $25 bets.
I think the hardway minimums are $5 on a $25 table.
Since a $39 (+$1 vig) Lay 5 or 9 pays $26, maybe that's the minimum for those lay bets, otherwise I'd go for a $30 (+$1 vig) lay bet on the 5 or 9 that pays $20. Play the Lays on the Come-outs when people are rolling 7's and maybe for 2 rolls after that when they still roll 7's. Just one bet at a time.
June 21st, 2021 at 3:57:40 PM
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You can call that "The No Chance of Winning System". When you play roulette, do you bet red and black at the same time?Quote: tuttigymThat being said, I would start any hand with $25 PL; $25 DP + $1 on the 12. I have now created, for me, table options based on the point established, and I basically break even with the come-out roll.
What do you mean you basically break even on the come out roll?
It’s all about making that GTA
June 21st, 2021 at 7:41:58 PM
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Mr. Ace2: You have made a statement that is reasonable regarding the come out roll as well as a valid question, so I will elaborate.
Whenever I play, regardless of the table limit, I use the "Doey/Don't on the come out simply because winning a table minimum bet at come out is not important to my over-all strategy. What that does is allows me to play Don't odds when the table is cold or the HA on the point is so great, i.e. 10 or 4, Now, I do not have to pay a vig on a lay which does the same thing. Also, I can play both sides of the table and use the Don't odds as a hedge on a "choppy" table. Does it work all the time? Of course not, but I can get more bang for my gambling buck so that when a hot shooter appears, I can take down the Don't odds during the hand. Flexibility!!
tuttigym
Whenever I play, regardless of the table limit, I use the "Doey/Don't on the come out simply because winning a table minimum bet at come out is not important to my over-all strategy. What that does is allows me to play Don't odds when the table is cold or the HA on the point is so great, i.e. 10 or 4, Now, I do not have to pay a vig on a lay which does the same thing. Also, I can play both sides of the table and use the Don't odds as a hedge on a "choppy" table. Does it work all the time? Of course not, but I can get more bang for my gambling buck so that when a hot shooter appears, I can take down the Don't odds during the hand. Flexibility!!
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 7:54:06 PM
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Mr. Vegasrider: I am originally from Hollywood, CA, so been going to Vegas since the '50's when it was the only game around, period and a real value. Now I live in the southeast US so Biloxi is my chosen destination with huge comps for rooms, meals, and golf. I don't need the Vegas glitz or heat or expenses. Treasure Bay in Biloxi offers $2 BJ and other "carnival" card games like 3 Card Poker, Mississippi Stud, etc. One other thing, they are much more friendly there. You should try it.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 7:57:03 PM
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MrV: Now you are starting to think with some creativity, but you need to take your thoughts a few steps further out.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 21st, 2021 at 8:17:42 PM
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I sometimes have 5 to 10 come-out rolls before the first point gets established. That $1 midnight bet would get crushed, unless it hit.
June 22nd, 2021 at 3:43:43 AM
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Probably $5 on a $25 table. But when it does hit, it wipes out the the only time you get a loss doing the doey-don't. Hmmm.Quote: ChumpChangeI sometimes have 5 to 10 come-out rolls before the first point gets established. That $1 midnight bet would get crushed, unless it hit.
But the student of the game will know instantly it won't work in the long run because it is a combination of negative expectaion bets; the overall EV is always a sum of the EV of each bet. The HE against the '12' bet is quite heavy, but interestingly it still wouldn't work to beat the house long-run if it was small edge or even a fair bet with no edge. Note Tuttigym concedes " Does it work all the time? Of course not"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 22nd, 2021 at 7:01:36 AM
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Mr. Chump c: As an "establishment" (right side, i.e. PL player) several of those come-out rolls are probably craps which means losing that $25 PL bet every time. My play NEVER LOSES a PL wager. I have 30 come out rolls to hit that "midnight" number, and if it does not show, a reasonable probability, losing $30 over a span of 30 hands is not "crushing" to my bankroll or ego. Losing several $25 come outs to craps tosses would probably be beyond "crushing" to you though. One other thing: It's gambling.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 7:08:23 AM
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An ill-informed gambler is the casino's best friend.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 22nd, 2021 at 7:30:42 AM
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Mr. O: "Doey/Don't" gotcha thinking some perhaps. I am a student of the game in a more creative fashion that the "right-side establishment" player. First, for me there is no such thing as the "long run." Why? I do not know precisely what that entails: 100; 250; 500+ hands in a session? We all play in a "short term" environment and are at the mercy of the table, limited finances, style of play, luck, and lastly discipline or lack thereof. However, what I can do to TRY to beat the HA or HE is to use some SIMPLE craps math such as: point is 8; play DP odds at $18; play the Hard 8 for $9. I now have 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose. I have a mathematical advantage of winning over the house. If I win by 7 out, it is small, $6; if I win by the Hard 8: $72, really good. If I lose with a easy 8 which happens; -$18 no big deal but fun and not "crushing". See Mr Chumpc.
p.s. I am talking about a $10 or $15 table minimum here.
tuttigym
p.s. I am talking about a $10 or $15 table minimum here.
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 7:34:41 AM
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Mr billryan: That's why I don't play roulette or Keno or "establishment " (right-side only) craps.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 8:55:47 AM
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Tuttigym: it seems you enjoying hedging your bets.
In that you are not alone.
The first gambling author I read was John Patrick, and in his two books on craps, esp. "Advanced Craps" he lays out a variety of plays on both the right and the dark side, which you might enjoy looking at.
No, his methods are not "math approved" but it seems you and he think alike.
In that you are not alone.
The first gambling author I read was John Patrick, and in his two books on craps, esp. "Advanced Craps" he lays out a variety of plays on both the right and the dark side, which you might enjoy looking at.
No, his methods are not "math approved" but it seems you and he think alike.
"What, me worry?"
June 22nd, 2021 at 9:05:21 AM
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well, you told me that you've experienced uncivil pushback in the past, so I'll try to not 'go there' ... but there's a 'but' alright. It sounds good *but* you've only listed -EV bets... you qualified your remarks so let's say you know that but are hoping for short term good results. The problem is you're going down the road marked 'hedging' , and honestly you should really think that hedging favors the house in the sense that it takes away variance, your only hope at -EV betting.Quote: tuttigym...some SIMPLE craps math such as: point is 8; play DP odds at $18; play the Hard 8 for $9.
!!! ... I refer back to 'just knowing' you have an error without doing the work to show it because you've only listed -EV bets. So, it takes time for me to find it, if I can do it, certainly others can. I'll see what I can come up with.Quote:I now have 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose. I have a mathematical advantage of winning over the house.
this I've seen before. The problem with this kind of 'math' is that it doesn't weigh in the probabilities. You're not doing the right math unless the probability is factored.Quote:If I win by 7 out, it is small, $6; if I win by the Hard 8: $72, really good. If I lose with a easy 8 which happens; -$18 no big deal but fun and not "crushing"...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 22nd, 2021 at 9:31:33 AM
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MrV: Nice to know and a very nice compliment. Just to be clear, I am not looking for "approval" in an ego sense, but to offer simple doable bankroll extending possibilities to those with an open mind. If by "math approved," you mean Wizard following or variances, or standard deviations (SD), or HA , or HE "math," I personally believe those are false narratives. All they seem to do is create confusion, doubt, weed (not the kind one smokes) searching, and nit picking into a game that only requires a person knows 3rd grade arithmetic and apply it logically. Again, thanks for nice words.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 10:11:31 AM
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Mr O: Your responses and posts are NOT uncivil to me. They are thoughtful and to many represent those within the craps "establishment" thinking. When I play, I establish a winning goal number ($$$) for any given session. All of my play is "short term." I do not know anything else. The only true "variance" is guessing correctly, i.e., luck if you will. I try to nudge the luck to my side by creating a mathematical advantage (probability of winning over losing ) of number of ways to win vs number of ways to lose at any given time in my play. My strategies vary during the session, and the one shown above is NOT always in play with a 6 or 8 point. The above scenario gives me a 57+% probability of winning something. That sure is better than 16+% chance of losing in a straight PL+ odds play. Don't forget, I never lose my PL bet no matter what happens as opposed to a 7 out taking that PL + odds out: a double whammy. As far as finding the "error" do not forget to factor in PL bet loses as opposed to wins.
I appreciate your dedication to trying to research the EV bets, but really it is diving into the weeds that I am not willing to chase.
tuttigym
I appreciate your dedication to trying to research the EV bets, but really it is diving into the weeds that I am not willing to chase.
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 11:08:58 AM
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Thanks. As you know, there is nothing easier than to go on the internet and exercise the demon that makes you want to troll. It seems to be in everybody.Quote: tuttigymMr O: Your responses and posts are NOT uncivil to me.
OK. Unfortunately I put some time and effort into it. So don't click on the box marked 'examination'. Lots of edits.Quote:I appreciate your dedication to trying to research the EV bets, but really it is diving into the weeds that I am not willing to chase.
I assume we got here with the doey-don't or we couldn't do the DP odds. The 12s that get rolled on the come-out aside, reaching this point is where I think you evaluate the situation as " I now have 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose". I'll try to check that out.Quote:[if the] point is 8; play DP odds at $18; play the Hard 8 for $9
so there's 6/36 prob of 7 which would result in losing the Hard 8 for $9 and winning the odds bet for $15, $6 to the positive. Winning/losing the line bet is offset.
there's 1/36 chance of rolling a hard 8 winning $81 and losing $18 odds bet. Winning/losing the line bet is offset.
there's 4/36 chance of rolling a different 8 losing $9 + $18. Winning/losing the line bet is offset.
all other rolls are meaningless, so it resets every roll.
[6/36*6]+[1/36*63]+[4/36*-27]= -0.25 ... I concede that my math is often in error, but I think I got that right
As for 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose, you are correct there are 11 outcomes . Your error was in failing to subtract all the losses for rolling a 7 and a hard eight from the winning amounts, but check my work someone. [edit] I did make some mistakes I just caught. if you roll the hard 8 it comes out just fine for you, rolling a 7 is to the positive as well. Losing the hard 8 is the killer
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 22, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 22nd, 2021 at 11:15:02 AM
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Quote: tuttigymLast Memorial Day I went to Harrah's Casino in Cherokee, NC, about 2 hrs. drive from home, for some gambling action. To my dismay, the table minimums were $25. I immediately turned away, played some slots, and left very disappointed. Time passed and I thought out a plan, which I have NOT tried yet, on how to defeat the $25 casino imposed minimum with legal small bets ($3-15), still use the $25 minimum when necessary, play for an hour or more without going bankrupt on a "cold" or "choppy" table, and possibly walking away winning. So to those of you forum player/participants, using your creative juices, tell us how one would attack those greedy casinos and the $25 table minimum using those small table legal bets in conjunction with the $25 minimum as required. Your buy-in should be $500. Your plan can be point specific. After a week of answers, I will reveal my plan or "system."
The only way to really do what you suggest is to make a hedge play. The only thing a hedge does is drive up the house edge and limit the variance.
I’m sure there limitless hedge plays.
June 22nd, 2021 at 2:20:53 PM
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Mr. O: When I started the original thread about, what I called, the PL 1.41 hoax, it lasted for months and every time I responded to "debunk" the various posts many called me a "troll." I was very amused. Then there were those who tried to "troll" me. I really enjoyed those folks and never got angry; I just had fun with my rebuttals.
I will wait on you to tell me to hit the "examination" switch when you are ready. We are having fun, right?
tuttigym
I will wait on you to tell me to hit the "examination" switch when you are ready. We are having fun, right?
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 2:32:02 PM
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Mr TDVegas: Thanks for jumping in and getting me back to the original intent of this thread. Actually in my vision to defeat the $25 table, there is some hedge betting, however, my outside the box thinking uses a number of really small wagers (from $1 - $15) that offer reasonable returns as some risk, but allows one to extend their buy-in for a much longer period than if one were to just play as an "establishment" player or even with $25 minimum hedge bets to satisfy the table "marshals." Try and think about it some more if you have some free time. Get creative. When I explain my plan next week, you will probably want to slap me silly and roll your eyes. I actually think it could work to win some.
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 3:04:51 PM
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Quote: tuttigymMr TDVegas: Thanks for jumping in and getting me back to the original intent of this thread. Actually in my vision to defeat the $25 table, there is some hedge betting, however, my outside the box thinking uses a number of really small wagers (from $1 - $15) that offer reasonable returns as some risk, but allows one to extend their buy-in for a much longer period than if one were to just play as an "establishment" player or even with $25 minimum hedge bets to satisfy the table "marshals." Try and think about it some more if you have some free time. Get creative. When I explain my plan next week, you will probably want to slap me silly and roll your eyes. I actually think it could work to win some.
tuttigym
You mentioned ‘the50’s’ I believe somewhere upthread so you I assume are at least in your 70’s? You have not reinvented the wheel here. Your doey/don’t with boxcar bet will cost you $5-10 an hour to be able to play the bets you want. If that is worth it to you, go for it. Overall, if there are no tables less than $25 it gets you a seat at the table for a small price. Trust me, you are not ‘fooling’ them. They will be happy to take a guaranteed $5-10 an hour plus an expected few more $ per hour on your -EV bets. If your only additional bets are ‘free odds’ bets then your expected loss is only the initial $5-10 an hour. You are less likely to win than a ‘regular’ bettor, but you are correct that you are likely to have a defined bankroll last longer. Any reply you make, or any further replies to you are just blather. Go to the casino and tell us how it worked out!
June 22nd, 2021 at 5:13:21 PM
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Mr. SOOPOO: I am 80 yrs. old, and I am not trying to "reinvent the wheel." The casinos can not exist on patrons losing $10/hr. BTW, I am not trying to "fool them." I can use their rules and limits along with my "creativity" to play. If it does not work, which most plans do not including the so-called "regular bettor," so be it.
When I read all the posts from veteran players who espouse their savant math HA/HE/variance/SD/'SD2 ad nauseum, the novice/newby/susceptible/easily led/easily swayed folks out there who desperately want to play and win probably believe that those "savants" have ALL the answers and never ever lose. They believe you guys are "Rain Man."
As far as "less likely to win than a "regular bettor' "? You don't know that; you are just guessing much like the way you play. "Blather?" Really?
tuttigym
When I read all the posts from veteran players who espouse their savant math HA/HE/variance/SD/'SD2 ad nauseum, the novice/newby/susceptible/easily led/easily swayed folks out there who desperately want to play and win probably believe that those "savants" have ALL the answers and never ever lose. They believe you guys are "Rain Man."
As far as "less likely to win than a "regular bettor' "? You don't know that; you are just guessing much like the way you play. "Blather?" Really?
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 5:25:01 PM
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Quote: tuttigymMr. SOOPOO: I am 80 yrs. old, and I am not trying to "reinvent the wheel." The casinos can not exist on patrons losing $10/hr. BTW, I am not trying to "fool them." I can use their rules and limits along with my "creativity" to play. If it does not work, which most plans do not including the so-called "regular bettor," so be it.
When I read all the posts from veteran players who espouse their savant math HA/HE/variance/SD/'SD2 ad nauseum, the novice/newby/susceptible/easily led/easily swayed folks out there who desperately want to play and win probably believe that those "savants" have ALL the answers and never ever lose. They believe you guys are "Rain Man."
As far as "less likely to win than a "regular bettor' "? You don't know that; you are just guessing much like the way you play. "Blather?" Really?
tuttigym
I haven’t lost at Craps in about three years. I played one session in that amount of time and won.
The only answer that I claim to have when it comes to Craps is which bets have the lowest edge, but for me, I think players should do whatever they like…my interest is exclusively in them understanding the expected loss (cost) of each bet.
I only play $5 tables and hedge my Pass Line CO with a $1 Crap Check. Terrible bet, but I know what it costs me in the long run and I almost never play Craps.
I don’t know why this perception exists that math guys, APs, or both, look down on ALL -EV play, but that’s simply not the case with most of us. I just want people to know what the expected loss of their action is.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
June 22nd, 2021 at 6:40:23 PM
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You can hit it anytime. But I wanted you to be able to decline to do so, since you said you don't want to get into the weeds.Quote: tuttigymI will wait on you to tell me to hit the "examination" switch when you are ready. We are having fun, right?
I felt compelled to follow the formula that goes, "the amount won or lost in gambling is the amount won times the probability of winning minus the amount loss times the prob. of losing" . Simple as that.
I get those heebie-jeebies when I see an evaluation that does not take probability into account.
yeah, it's nice to get rid of the heebie-jeebies, just want to see if I can do it. I just hope you aren't one of the guys I've seen who really did think the doey-don't cancelled out the bets perfectly. I've run into those players and they are definitely not having fun. They are still losing on the line bets and they are betting twice as much , each bet against an edge.Quote:We are having fun, right?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 22nd, 2021 at 6:43:41 PM
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Mission 146: Thanks for the post. What are AP's and who are "most of us"? I am not being critical. It is just that folks who consider themselves to be craps "officiandos", i.e. experts that I have seen play do not do much better than their novice counterparts even though they claim to know the best bets with the lowest HA/HE. It is gambling, and play along with the dice tosses are random events.
The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.
tuttigym
The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 6:53:38 PM
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Quote: tuttigym
The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.
One out of three ain't bad.
June 22nd, 2021 at 6:55:01 PM
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Mr. O: I just quickly wanted to respond on your bet "cancelling" comment. I know that me playing the doey/don't is NOT unique, but I personally have never seen anyone else play that way. When I do, the dealers give me strange looks of bewilderment, and I have to teach them to not take and replace the chips that all they have to do is knock on the table. It takes a few hands, but eventually they get it and we laugh alot. I do not know what you mean by "cancelling out the bets perfectly." Can you explain?
tuttigym
tuttigym
June 22nd, 2021 at 7:05:09 PM
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If you wanted to make a $15 game out of a $25 table, you could bet $25 on the PL & $40 on the DP and lay your odds on the Don't. You'll lose close to 91 cents per come-out roll in HA on the $65 line bets at 1.4%. That means you'll lose $65 in HA after every 72 come-out rolls. It's the difference between pushing and winning on the 12 on the Don't Pass; and losing and pushing on the 12 on the Pass Line. You lose half a bet on each on the come-out 12's.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 23, 2021
June 22nd, 2021 at 8:16:51 PM
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All gambling in a casino is obviously -EV. My view is that the EV is so low (under half a percent) on properly played games such as Craps and BJ that it's actually one of the cheaper forms of entertainment available. Assuming you like gambling of course. It's so low that you could even beat the edge over a lifetime of playing via variance
Are there still $5 dollar tables downtown? In Vegas a few weeks ago it was sometimes difficult finding a table under $50 at Cosmo/Aria
Are there still $5 dollar tables downtown? In Vegas a few weeks ago it was sometimes difficult finding a table under $50 at Cosmo/Aria
It’s all about making that GTA
June 23rd, 2021 at 3:11:00 AM
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Let's say someone who didn't know it before finally accepts the idea that no combination of bets that have a house edge can result in player advantage *or* even reduce the amount of negative average expected loss... even in the case of hedging bets.Quote: tuttigym... I do not know what you mean by "cancelling out the bets perfectly." Can you explain?
When it comes to the doey-don't, though, this same person might feel that "here is an exception", clearly the Pass bet cancels out the Don't Pass bet! Except for that pesky come-out 12, which is no big deal. Well, if it isn't, then the lamented $25 minimum is no big deal either.
But OK, you can bet on the 12 as well, and if it comes up on the come-out that bet will cancel out that problem too, right? Well, it sure would if it would quit losing on the come-out when the roll is the other 35 possibilities.
I won't take you into the weeds and show the math, but when you come up with the idea of adding one -EV to another -EV bet, you are increasing the amount of loss to be expected on average. That's easy to see when your wife places a bet on her game at the same time you place your bet on your different game. But it seems hard to see for some very smart people when it comes to hedging. In the case of the doey-don't, at a $25 table, you have decided to change from putting $25 up against the house edge to now putting $50 up against it for the benefit of never being able to win. OK, you add some other bets so you can win maybe; all the bets being offered by the casino are -EV too*, and you are making it worse. Without going into the weeds that's the best I can explain it.
I too once thought the doey-don't was brilliant. About 16 years ago I emailed the Wizard about it [you could do that then and he would email you back!]. I was quite shocked to find out what he said and it took me a year or two to really believe I was so wrong.
*except the free odds, which are available all along without doing all these somersaults
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 23, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 23rd, 2021 at 4:52:06 AM
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Quote: tuttigymWhenever I play, regardless of the table limit, I use the "Doey/Don't on the come out simply because winning a table minimum bet at come out is not important to my over-all strategy. What that does is allows me to play Don't odds when the table is cold or the HA on the point is so great, i.e. 10 or 4, Now, I do not have to pay a vig on a lay which does the same thing. Also, I can play both sides of the table and use the Don't odds as a hedge on a "choppy" table.
Try running that on your WinCraps, and you will quickly find it either loses more, or does not win as much, vs betting the DP or PL alone. You are taking the important 7 and the 11 out of play. Eight winning dice combinations on the come out, canceled by the DP bet.
Whatever you might win with your DP odds bets, will be more than offset by the lost come out roll win opportunities on the PL.
You are also betting twice as much on the come out, where you are expected to lose 1.36% of the total bet on the DP, and 1.41% of the total bet on the PL. Doubling your potential loss on those combined bets. Hedging with a bet on the 12, would only make it worse.
June 23rd, 2021 at 8:17:20 AM
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Sabre: Which one and how so?
June 23rd, 2021 at 8:26:25 AM
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Mr. Chump c: I appreciate the attempt, but again, for me, the PL bet is just a gateway to play and holds no allure to my overall game plan, so if I lose $1 at come out each time to protect the PL bet, I am okay with that and it is easily recovered through other betting practices. Being an old, short, fat, dumpy dude, I can only stay at the table for between an hour to 2 hours before becoming either bored with the game or just tired. So 72 come outs might be a bit much for me.
tuttigym
tuttigym
