rottenluck
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 1:46:58 PM permalink
First, let me say, either the casinos are somehow cheating (and I don't have a conspiracy theory explaining how) or I have a cloud of bad luck hovering over my head for life.

Back in '09-'10, my friend introduced to me a craps system. Trust me, I'm really good with math, and I know there is never a way to beat the 1.4% hold in craps. It was 20X odds, starting with a $10 don't pass bet and then enough to win $200. Then a don't come and another don't come. Three points, with $780 to $1100 on the table hoping for a 7. I got killed. I am guessing I probably lost somewhere between $25k to $50k over a dozen or so "vacations" to Louisiana.

I dropped that "system" and decided to play for comps. $10,000 bank roll and $2,000 units on the Don't Pass. Either win $10,000 or lose $10,000. Won 3 sessions, lost 3 sessions. Then I altered my system to still bet $2k units, but either win $12K or lose $10k. Over 4 years, I'm down $40,000. The spreadsheet doesn't suggest anything terribly dishonest, considering I should lose $28 on every come out roll, although there has been some mild bad luck.

Decided to play 20X odds again for big money, starting with $100 on the Don't Pass and $2,400 to $4,000 against the point. Played it 4 times and lost $44,200.

Baccarat is what tipped me off. My wife records every bet we make. We started playing progressives last fall, starting with $25. Lose, bet $50. Lose that, bet $100. Up to $3,200. It was amazing how often we'd lose 8 in a row. We figured it out in Louisiana. My wife and I are always drinking, and we usually buy in for $7,000 cash. Win a few bets and then a dealer change. Next thing we know, we're making the $800 bet. The old man across from us had also bet on bank. The dealer was dealing SUPER FAST. She "accidentally" called a win a tie. The old man caught it. I colored up and got out. Come to think of it, this was a pattern I had seen in Vegas several times before. Drinking couple buys in with $7k cash, dealer change, new dealer is fast fast fast and next thing I know, I'm getting wiped out. When the ace is out there, it confuses things and the dealer goes super fast. Accidents happen, but always in the casino's favor. I probably lost around $40,000 on that learning lesson.

So now I am playing progressive craps, starting with $25. I've done the math, I lose 50.7% of the time. I should lose 8 in a row 1 out of every 229 attempts. We have played at a lot of different casinos starting on Aug 29th of this year and we've recorded every bet. We won 93 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won 76 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won exactly another 76 attempts and got wiped out yet again. Total record: 245 wins, 3 wipe outs. Total loss: $12,925. Theoretical loss is $722.16. Statistically speaking, we are 280.47% above target for wipe outs and actual loss exceeds theoretical loss by 1,789%. We're both convinced, if you buy in for $7K cash and play progressives, there is no way in hell you can possibly win even as few as 100 bets in a row without getting wiped out. In order to make things "normal", we should be able to win 439 bets in a row without a wipe out. There's no way in hell that could possibly happen. No way.

We started really watching the dice after an incident in Louisiana. Over the last 20 attempts, we've caught the dealers "accidently" calling a winning 7 a 6 and then taking my Don't bet after an 8 was rolled but the point was 4.

I know my sample size of 248 attempts isn't enough to prove anything, but combined with all the other "systems" and the never ending trail of bad luck along with the "accidents" from the super fast Baccarat dealers, my trust is about over with. I don't have a single system I can point to that's been successful.
Dodsferd
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December 13th, 2015 at 1:57:00 PM permalink
You're playing negative expectation games, with the presumption that you're going to come out ahead. No, spread sheets don't lie, but misconceptions about odds are just as misleading as bad math.

Casinos don't cheat, you're just playing into their hands with bad decisions.
This feeling is heavy, makes my body ache and I'm ready; To fall into the sky and I see now, the reason why. My heart is heavy, takes me to a place I can't breathe. Only then I know why I see the warning sign.
OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:08:13 PM permalink
Welcome to the forum. Don't expect much sympathy if you discovered Marty would work alongside house edge to slaughter you. Thanks for being an example of that.
Quote: rottenluck

Back in '09-'10, my friend introduced to me a craps system.

Some friend!
Quote:

Trust me, I'm really good with math, and I know there is never a way to beat the 1.4% hold in craps.

So you expected to be a loser? Why come here all surprised?
Quote:

Over 4 years, I'm down $40,000.

Let's see now, Negative expectation game played with high stakes. What were you expecting?
Quote:

Baccarat is what tipped me off. My wife records every bet we make. We started playing progressives last fall, starting with $25. Lose, bet $50. Lose that, bet $100. Up to $3,200. It was amazing how often we'd lose 8 in a row.

So. You figure to expect such a bad streak every 229 hands or so. Count how many games you played with those super fast dealers.

Oh hum. Sounds like you must be playing for fun. Did you get good value? If not, you are gluttons for punishment.
Do the casino's 'cheat' by bringing on 'careless' fast dealers when the customers are throwing money away? I don't know. But with two of you watching and recording, you should be catching as many dealer errors against you as you are ignoring such errors in your favour.

There are plenty of posts here that illustrate the error of your ways. Use the search feature.

Meanwhile,
Good luck for the future.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rottenluck
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:29:08 PM permalink
All I know is, if you bet $10 on the Don't Pass line and back it up with 20X odds, you should lose 14 cents per come out roll. Theoretical hold says you'd have to make over 178,000 bets to lose $25,000. I think I lost somewhere in the neighborhood of $25,000 to $50,000. A feat that would be nearly impossible to replicate on a dozen or so trips to the casinos with 2 hours of play per trip, on average.

I don't believe in coincidence.

I do believe in larger sample sizes and with small sample sizes, large deviations are entirely possible.

This string of bad luck dating back to 2009 is extremely consistent and therefore suspicious, especially in light of the fact that I don't have a single success story.

I remain fairly well convinced that if a vacationer, who is drinking, as most are, buys in to a craps table with $7,000 cash and plays progressives, beginning with $25... there is zero chance he will win 100 attempts in a row without getting wiped out for $6,375 first. I'd put the over/under at 50.

As for catching dealers "accidentally" making mistakes in the casino's favor, we never ever considered that a possibility until just a few months ago. I will never play a casino card game again unless I just want to kill time at $10 tables. Craps, I'm on the fence, and that's the reason for the thread/discussion.

If the dealers are intentionally trying to beat the players, that is a rabbit hole that I simply can't explain. How do they get paid? Why doesn't someone talk? Conspiracy theory big time, I have no theory, just my extremely consistent and therefore suspicious bad luck.
OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:48:56 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I do believe in larger sample sizes and with small sample sizes, large deviations are entirely possible.

This string of bad luck dating back to 2009 is extremely consistent and therefore suspicious, especially in light of the fact that I don't have a single success story.

I remain fairly well convinced that if a vacationer, who is drinking, as most are, buys in to a craps table with $7,000 cash and plays progressives, beginning with $25... there is zero chance he will win 100 attempts in a row without getting wiped out for $6,375 first. I'd put the over/under at 50.

Maybe. You were sure to realise how badly you were losing. But those were not flat bets. I bet your overall action was massive.
But still, I have some good news for you. For all your bad luck, someone is getting good luck (me) Check out the charts in my blog and this post where I expected to lose, but failed and won spectacularly.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/23617-my-winning-system-an-exercise-in-debunking where I turned £250.50 into £3603.50 over 3 days with barely one setback, while trying to debunk a hit and run money management system.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:54:50 PM permalink
I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's consistently suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed. I wonder if the Nevada Gaming Commission ever hears this complaint? I might give them a call tomorrow.
OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:59:06 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's must suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed.


What I meant was that you might have had say a $25 base bet, but with Marty betting your average bet would have been much much more. The more your average bet, the more your total action exposed to the house edge.
I won't be trying it. I already simulated the destructive power of Marty, admittedly on roulette even money betting.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Dodsferd
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's consistently suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed. I wonder if the Nevada Gaming Commission ever hears this complaint? I might give them a call tomorrow.



That much is clear.

Again, you're using a progressive betting strategy on a negative expectation game. Call the gaming board, and get in touch with a representative who can educate you on the odds of the game.
This feeling is heavy, makes my body ache and I'm ready; To fall into the sky and I see now, the reason why. My heart is heavy, takes me to a place I can't breathe. Only then I know why I see the warning sign.
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:10:02 PM permalink
Agree, the theoretical hold is far far more than 1.4% of $25. Theoretical cost per attempt is $2.91. I'm cool with that and I understand that. 248 attempts is a very small sample size, but after getting killed on everything else leading up to this, surely you must understand why I'm suspicious.

Again, I'm 280.47% above target for wipe outs and over 1789% ahead of target for theoretical loss. I know the math. I understand the math. I've done the math.
OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:13:20 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

All I know is, if you bet $10 on the Don't Pass line and back it up with 20X odds, you should lose 14 cents per come out roll. Theoretical hold says you'd have to make over 178,000 bets to lose $25,000

That's if your average bet was $10. But your average bet with your system was MUCH MUCH more than that, so you had less bets, wasted less time and exposed yourself to greater variance.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:19:47 PM permalink
Oncedealer, agree with what you are saying. There was no record keeping with the $10 system and 20X odds, so I am just explaining, that, once again, this extremely consistent bad luck has been there for years. Again, if you were to win that much, less the .14 cent vig, on a dozen or so trips to the casino with 2-3 hours of play per trip, well, can't we both agree that the odds of that happening are extremely low.
OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:30:44 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

Oncedealer, agree with what you are saying. There was no record keeping with the $10 system and 20X odds, so I am just explaining, that, once again, this extremely consistent bad luck has been there for years. Again, if you were to win that much, less the .14 cent vig, on a dozen or so trips to the casino with 2-3 hours of play per trip, well, can't we both agree that the odds of that happening are extremely low.


Hmmmmmm.
Ok. You were damned unlucky. That's perhaps why you posted here. Let's say you were in the bottom 1% of players with similar wagering patterns and scale.
maybe the lucky 1% had equally consistent good luck. Maybe they are too busy sat on their yachts to post here. The 98% in the middle of the bell curve possibly don't think their experience worthy of posting.

Now, 'fess up, in all those years of play, did you ever go on 'tilt' to bet aggressively to catch up? Or were you REALLY so consistent in your base bet and on your leaving when goal met?
If 'yes', then again, you embraced the variance too much and your ROR would have been higher.

Read Romes' posts and get hold of the ROR calculator.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:35:39 PM permalink
So, on a $10 table you're betting DP 10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160 + 320 + 640 + 1280 (your top bet) PLUS 20x (of each of those?) odds on a 7k bankroll? I don't understand how you can afford to place full odds even above the 4th level, but maybe I'm confused about what you're doing now. For a net $10 if you win (plus odds) before you bust. Subject to a HE of $35.70 per progression, assuming you're holding your own and each progressive loss is canceled out by a progressive win.

At $25, your 8th bet is a progressive $6375 (last bet $3200) not counting odds, to try and get back that $25 you lost. Not really that many tables will even let you place that bet, but maybe you're in one. But there's 1 entire BR tied up in chasing losses on 1 progression, and costing you $89.25/progression even if you manage to balance.

I'm just having trouble imagining putting that much money at risk to win $25, especially with the HE working on those bets.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 4:10:30 PM permalink
Thanks for reading. You are confusing two different strategies. The first strategy was to play $10 on the Don't, play 20X odds behind. Bet the Don't Come for $10, play 20X odds behind there too. Then another $10 bet on the Don't Come with 20X odds behind that one as well. Three numbers in action with 20X odds, hoping for a 7. Three $10 bets costing 14 cents each theoretical, and another $780 to $1,100 in odds bets hoping for a 7, with no house edge.

The system I'm messing with now is simple progressives, beginning with a $25 bet and ending with a $3,200 bet. Theoretical loss is $2.91 per attempt. Should see 228 successful attempts to every wipe out.

My actual results indicate that either I am consistently the most unlucky SOB on the planet or somehow the game is dishonest. I'm leaning towards the latter. My best friend, who plays about half the $$$$ I do, doesn't track his results on a spreadsheet, but he is also very regimented in his craps play and he has experienced very similar results. It is consistent, and therefore, very suspicious.
odiousgambit
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December 13th, 2015 at 4:52:01 PM permalink
20x odds is some pretty crazy stuff to begin with, and if you aren't flat betting you are really doing some pretty insane stuff - unless 10s of thousands of dollars is not much money to you.

I've done simulations with Wincraps that consistently show bankrolls less than 100s of thousands of dollars at 10x are in grave danger. Flat betting too. I wouldn't even want to take a look at *pressing* bets at 20x odds. You, sir, have stepped foot in another universe, one us ordinary mortals only get to see with the Hubble telescope.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darthvader
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December 14th, 2015 at 5:57:40 AM permalink
Dear Rottenluck,

Here's a tip. Always make sure that your Don't money is less than the Do money on the table. That is, past the come out roll, have yourself on the casino's side of the W/L.

Darth
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
rottenluck
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December 14th, 2015 at 6:59:02 AM permalink
So I had dinner with my good friend last night. Like I said, he is very regimented and systematic in his craps play. Like me, his "systems" have changed over the years. So we both have that in common. Another thing we have in common is this: we both agree that when either one of us is at a craps table, we are almost, like 99% of the time, the guy at the table betting the most money. If the casinos did have methods for cheating, if there is one player the casinos would want to beat, it would be me and him 99% of the time. (Oddly, we barely get free rooms and I was just told to F-off for a room on NYE in Louisiana and apparently my play isn't enough for a Sugar Bowl ticket even though that casino has at least two suites at the Super Dome that I'm aware of, maybe more. Another rant for another thread.)

So I asked him last night. He's a very intelligent guy, basically, have his results been anywhere close to expectation? Low and behold, he too, has consistently hit bad luck for YEARS. His losses are in the high five figures, maybe low six figures. Theoretical hold, he might be down maybe $5k at the most. He's smart, so most of his action is behind the line, with no house edge.

So not only is this never ending cloud of doom and horrible luck hovering over me for life, but that very same cloud of rotten luck just happens to follow him around everywhere he goes too. Wow, that's so odd. Just random happenstance, I'm sure.
OnceDear
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:33:44 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

So I had dinner with my good friend last night. Like I said, he is very regimented and systematic in his craps play. . . . He's a very intelligent guy, basically, have his results been anywhere close to expectation? Low and behold, he too, has consistently hit bad luck for YEARS. His losses are in the high five figures, maybe low six figures.
So not only is this never ending cloud of doom and horrible luck hovering over me for life, but that very same cloud of rotten luck just happens to follow him around everywhere he goes too. Wow, that's so odd. Just random happenstance, I'm sure.



Jeez, You guys need to have dinner together, or talk to eachother more often.
There's a common theme running through this thread: Casino's win, Losers keep playing. You claim some intelligence for yourself and for your friend, but you think Martying a -ev game is a good idea.

I strongly recommend bringing in a third impartial judge. I'll do it for $25,000, which on current form would be a good deal for you both.

But seriously, would you share your spreadsheets with me and I'd be delighted to analyse and simulate going forward.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rottenluck
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:33:46 AM permalink
I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

http://www.dicesetter.com/Casino%20Dice%20Surveys/Bias%20Dice.htm

Absolutely fascinating.
MrV
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:56:20 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

http://www.dicesetter.com/Casino%20Dice%20Surveys/Bias%20Dice.htm

Absolutely fascinating.



"Biased dice."

This notion has been explored and essentially dismissed in other, earlier threads.
"What, me worry?"
odiousgambit
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:04:53 AM permalink
The "biased dice" path eh?

Don't go there unless you want us to think you are a banned member coming back under a new ID.

Oops, too late, at least for the suspicion.

You can redeem yourself, though, by determining how the dice were biased and giving us a report on how you cleaned up taking advantage of it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MathExtremist
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:19:01 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

[bunko biased dice conspiracy theory URL removed]

Absolutely fascinating.

...that anyone could possibly put stock in crackpot allegations of a widespread conspiracy theory that, if proven, would not only lead to felony cheating charges but would actually mean that certain craps bets were actually player-favorable. All you'd have to do to beat the game is put your money in the right spot. No card counting, hole carding, or progressive scouting. Just walk up to the table and bet.

If the dice are biased, you have an effortless and consistent way to beat the casino. So why do you lose playing craps?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
OnceDear
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:25:39 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

(link redacted) ----------------

Absolutely fascinating.


You're right. Fascinating assortment of illiterate deluded fools on a web page designed to sell the idea of dice setting.

The theme continues. Is that a reliable source of intelligent commentary, in your opinion?

Was spamming this site with that nonsense your sole motive for joining here?
Links out from that shoddy site will offer you Dice Busting lessons for just $895
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
muleyvoice
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December 14th, 2015 at 8:49:29 AM permalink
PM me and I will remove the curse an enemy has put on you.
MrV
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December 14th, 2015 at 9:01:12 AM permalink
PM me and I'll show you how the casinos use biased chips to cause gamblers to lose more than they win.
"What, me worry?"
MathExtremist
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December 14th, 2015 at 9:31:42 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

PM me and I'll show you how the casinos use biased chips to cause gamblers to lose more than they win.

Did you know that you can tell whether your bet will win or not based on the edge spots on the chips? It has to do with the asymmetry in the materials used to make the chips and how they lead to a financial imbalance. Since the casino has the edge under normal circumstances, any financial imbalance is good for the player. For example, this chip will definitely win the bet it's used on:

See that crooked green edge spot? That's a telltale sign you're going to win. On the other hand, this chip below is a guaranteed loser:

For anyone who is wondering about the truthitude of this post, it has as much validity as the complaint made by the residents of Woodland who rejected a solar panel farm because it would suck up all the energy from the sun and businesses would not come there.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
TwoFeathersATL
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December 14th, 2015 at 12:49:04 PM permalink
I don't believe truthitude is an allowable word in Scrabble.......
Just because it comes up in Quantum Theory, does not make it acceptable in Scrabble......

<edit> I didn't know I had to check the chips for telltale signs, no wonder I can't win.....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Romes
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December 14th, 2015 at 2:11:26 PM permalink
Hello OP, WELCOME to the forums =p.

The reason you're finding some resistance here is because many of the people who've chimed in on this thread are quite mathematically inclined. I was hoping MathExtremest or ThatDonGuy would chime in so I didn't have to run some potential Standard Deviation numbers =P. I still don't want to, just yet (lol) but I think I can get a few points across to try to help you understand a few things.

1) As you already hinted towards, your sampling size seems to be quite small. In the short run, anything is possible. If you lose 3 throws in a row, you're 0 for 3 with a win rate of 0% and a loss rate of 100%, which is mathematically impossible (in the long run). You really need to get a larger sampling size to do any kind of meaningful statistical research. In blackjack for example, if you have your average bet, house edge, the variance of the game, and the number of trials, you can easily calculate your EV and your standard deviations. Then, once you've obtained any kind of meaningful amount of data, you can tell with mathematical certainty if your results are "abnormal."

2) Next comes your bet sizing and the word most of us hate, VARIANCE. While your base bet might be small, and in craps even if most of your money is stacked on the zero house edge odds, you're still going to have WILD swings of variance based off your bet size. Your bet size plus the variance of the bets will jack your standard deviations way out. Combine this with your small sampling size and it's not too crazy to see some really wild results (in either direction). Martingale isn't any better =/.

3) Giving some small validity to the statement you're begin cheated, there are several things you can do about this:
- Use the information to go the opposite direction. If the dice are loaded for 6/8 or something (to screw a DP player) then just switch to hard betting the pass with those dice. Basically, as others pointed out, if they put loaded dice in play, all you have to do is pay attention to what they're loaded to and then win $100,000 that night (given your average bets).
- Cheating dealers. This has been done. Hell, I've even caught a cheating blackjack dealer in 2015 in a vegas double deck game (called gaming to report them). Some people think casinos would never cheat, but I mark that up to ignorance. That being said, I still believe MOST casinos/employees do not cheat. Again, giving you the assumption that they're trying to, you can easily handle this. In Baccarat, tell them to deal slower. You're betting hundreds and thousands a hand, they will do what you request. Tell them if they don't deal slower you'll leave. Complain to the pit and the dealers will quite quickly do what you want. Same goes for craps. Stand near the middle of the table and tell them to give it a second or two when the dice land so you can clearly see them. If you're 99% of the time the biggest money at the table, they'll either appease you, or you can complain to a higher up and make them appease you. The money almost always gets what it wants.
- You're responsible for knowing your game, bets, etc. Dealers (intentionally or not) make mistakes. They will try to over pay you, and take your money. You must be on your game to make sure you're not getting cheated. I've been AP'ing for nearly a decade and while I can't say with certainty I've caught them all, I'd be willing to bet of the dealer mistakes AGAINST me, I've caught and pointed out 99% of them. This much is just paying attention, knowing when your bets win/lose and how much they win/lose.

4) Your comps sound VERY odd to me. If you're putting that kind of action down you should be able to get whatever you want whenever you want. Do you have a host? You should request a host or at least go to VIP and talk to the host on duty about your action. Tell them what you play, make them look your account up, and ask them why you're rated so poorly that they couldn't even give you a room, or whatever else you want. One thing for you to note though, most casinos do NOT count odds in craps to your average bet. After all, there's no house edge, so why should they count it? They'll just count your bets that have a house edge for your average bet/etc. Just go talk to a host and they should be able to explain why. I HIGHLY doubt you've been marked as some super skilled player or a threat given the "systems" you've mentioned... In fact, if you finally get a host to review your games/action you might finally get noticed and get the comps your level of play clearly deserves.

So overall, the claim of "cheating" must be followed with meaningful statistical data. Obviously 99% of amateurs that play and lose think they were cheated, thus the only way to back your claims is with this qualified data, which unfortunately (even though you do seem smarter than your average ploppy) you do not have. This is why you got a bit of backlash, but try to understand both sides and how we hear about casinos cheating on a near daily basis.

Again, welcome to the forums. Feel free to search them to find others that have had similar betting "systems," etc, etc. There's a ton of great info on this site =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
rottenluck
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December 15th, 2015 at 10:49:08 AM permalink
Thanks Romes, a very well thought and intelligent reply. I am here for my final day in Vegas. I've decided to give this another try, that is, the benefit of the doubt. I'll keep playing progressives today and I swear if I get wiped out again today, that's gonna be pretty damning. Theoretically, I should be able to win 439 attempts in a row. Eight in a row is hard to do but I am not seeing that in my first 248 attempts.

We are definitely watching the dealers. We just started doing this and in the last 49 attempts we've caught the dealers 'accidentally' calling our win a tie once and another time our tie was called a loss.

As for the comps, I haven't even mentioned my sports play. I'm down $83k this year in sports, all with the casino I've been loyal to, on four plays that went 0-4. This host put me in a suite that retails for $99 a night. My wife and I wouldn't even buy a room this shifty if we were on a vacay to a non-gambling destination. I even once tipped my host a $100 about four years ago, which seemed to have zero effect.

The wife and I have decided to text the host next time we come to town with a polite ultimatum, give me the big suite at the top with the ice maker in it, and if you aren't able to, no biggie, we'll just stay elsewhere.
Ayecarumba
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December 15th, 2015 at 11:40:20 AM permalink
You mention that you have a win goal. Perhaps abiding by this goal, and stopping play when you reach it, is keeping you from maximizing your winning sessions? Just as you have bad losing streaks, you could also have epic winning streaks, but if you walk away after reaching an arbitrary number, you may be cutting yourself off from the whole "right tail" of the bell curve.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
OnceDear
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December 15th, 2015 at 1:24:22 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

You mention that you have a win goal. Perhaps abiding by this goal, and stopping play when you reach it, is keeping you from maximizing your winning sessions? Just as you have bad losing streaks, you could also have epic winning streaks, but if you walk away after reaching an arbitrary number, you may be cutting yourself off from the whole "right tail" of the bell curve.

Lol. Don't encourage RL's financial death wish.
RL, If you knew what Aye's tagline meant, you would know to ignore his advice on probability :o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Romes
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December 15th, 2015 at 1:34:50 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

Thanks Romes, a very well thought and intelligent reply. I am here for my final day in Vegas. I've decided to give this another try, that is, the benefit of the doubt. I'll keep playing progressives today and I swear if I get wiped out again today, that's gonna be pretty damning. Theoretically, I should be able to win 439 attempts in a row. Eight in a row is hard to do but I am not seeing that in my first 248 attempts.

We are definitely watching the dealers. We just started doing this and in the last 49 attempts we've caught the dealers 'accidentally' calling our win a tie once and another time our tie was called a loss.

As for the comps, I haven't even mentioned my sports play. I'm down $83k this year in sports, all with the casino I've been loyal to, on four plays that went 0-4. This host put me in a suite that retails for $99 a night. My wife and I wouldn't even buy a room this shifty if we were on a vacay to a non-gambling destination. I even once tipped my host a $100 about four years ago, which seemed to have zero effect.

The wife and I have decided to text the host next time we come to town with a polite ultimatum, give me the big suite at the top with the ice maker in it, and if you aren't able to, no biggie, we'll just stay elsewhere.

Wow, if you're putting that kind of action through, you absolutely need to get a host at a new chain. There's plenty of people on here that could recommend a host, but simply go to VIP services and tell them how much action you put through (like here) and tell them you need a host because you're fed up that your current casino you've been loyal to for so long won't do CRAP for you even being down over $100k. Drop that $100k in there somewhere and watch for their eyes to lite up =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
petroglyph
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December 15th, 2015 at 5:30:39 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Wow, if you're putting that kind of action through, you absolutely need to get a host at a new chain. There's plenty of people on here that could recommend a host, but simply go to VIP services and tell them how much action you put through (like here) and tell them you need a host because you're fed up that your current casino you've been loyal to for so long won't do CRAP for you even being down over $100k. Drop that $100k in there somewhere and watch for their eyes to lite up =P.

At that level of play would it behoove him to contact a private host like Steve Cyr?
rottenluck
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December 16th, 2015 at 6:45:22 PM permalink
The wife and I played casino games again yesterday and only added lighter fluid to the fire of our conspiracy theories.

We played progressive craps for a starting unit of $25. We ended up with 18 attempts and no wipe outs. But we were forced to make the $400 bet 3 times in 18 attempts, that is, we started the attempt with four losers in a row ($25, $50, $100 & $200 all lost). Statistically speaking, we should see 4 losers in a row to start an attempt 6.6% of the time, or 1 in 15.13 attempts. Theoretical says we were supposed to see the 0-4 start 1.19 times yesterday, but, as luck would have it, we saw it 3 times, which is 252% ahead of theoretical.

We sat at a baccarat table and played $25 units for a while, ensuring that our play was evenly balanced between player and bank. We ended up winning 67 times and only saw 4 losers in a row occur twice. We never saw 5 losers in a row. It's kind of strange, that, as soon as we take the progression out of the equation, we see 5 losers in a row at a rate of 0 in 67. Like I said earlier, we track all of our progressive play in a spreadsheet, and in 266 attempts, we have seen 8 losers in a row occur 13 times, or roughly 1 in 20. But as soon as we eliminate progression, we go 0-67. Weird.

As if that wasn't enough to make me paranoid, we bought in at our last craps table with $1,000. We won 3 bets for $25 each and cashed out to go see our show. Immediately after the show, we went back to the same table. I pulled the chips out of my pocket and all I had was a $500 chip and 3 $25 chips. WTF. I figured I dropped a $500 chip on accident. We talked to security, we went back and forth, talked to the pit boss and about 45 minutes later the pit boss did admit that they had "accidentally" underpaid us by $500. My wife and I both thought we saw guilty body language from the box man when we were introduced to the pit boss by security.

All told, since we've really become paranoid of a dishonest game and really started watching carefully, we have caught the dealers making 3 mistakes in the last 43 attempts, all in the casinos favor, worth a total of $650. When I trusted them, I never watched them. That will never happen again.

So, yeah, you could call me paranoid but seriously, the casino is the one getting paranoid if we rub the dice on the pyramid backing before we roll. Yes, I'm definitely a little paranoid at this point.
TomG
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December 16th, 2015 at 7:33:10 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

Statistically speaking, we should see 4 losers in a row to start an attempt 6.6% of the time, or 1 in 15.13 attempts. Theoretical says we were supposed to see the 0-4 start 1.19 times yesterday, but, as luck would have it, we saw it 3 times, which is 252% ahead of theoretical.



You should see four losers 6.6% of the time every time you roll, not every time you follow a win as you seem to think. You definitely rolled more than 18 times. The spreadsheet doesn't lie. The person trying to interpret it does. Or at least doesn't know what it's saying. You've made that error multiple times here.

If anything, you lost more rolls than you won, yet still came out ahead. That's really cool. It's the times when you win more than you lose, yet still get crushed that really sucks about betting like that.
ontariodealer
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December 16th, 2015 at 7:54:38 PM permalink
dealers don't care if you win or lose...most hate their employer and wouldnt cheat for them.....we cater to tippers, hope we get a good number on the e.o. and that the new CW puts out.
get second you pig
rottenluck
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December 16th, 2015 at 9:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

You should see four losers 6.6% of the time every time you roll, not every time you follow a win as you seem to think.



Either way, it's the same. It's a 6.6% probability of occurring, whether you start counting after the win or not. It can't include the win, so by default, it always starts after the last win.

Bottom line, a guy walks up to a craps table and loses 4 Pass Line or Don't Pass wagers in a row, any combination... it's a 6.6% probability. Doesn't matter if he's been standing there for hours or if he just got there and loses his first 4 bets. The likelihood of losing 4 in a row is 6.6%.
TomG
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December 16th, 2015 at 9:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

So now I am playing progressive craps, starting with $25. I've done the math, I lose 50.7% of the time. I should lose 8 in a row 1 out of every 229 attempts. We have played at a lot of different casinos starting on Aug 29th of this year and we've recorded every bet. We won 93 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won 76 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won exactly another 76 attempts and got wiped out yet again. Total record: 245 wins, 3 wipe outs. Total loss: $12,925. Theoretical loss is $722.16. Statistically speaking, we are 280.47% above target for wipe outs and actual loss exceeds theoretical loss by 1,789%. We're both convinced, if you buy in for $7K cash and play progressives, there is no way in hell you can possibly win even as few as 100 bets in a row without getting wiped out. In order to make things "normal", we should be able to win 439 bets in a row without a wipe out. There's no way in hell that could possibly happen. No way.



Since you recorded every bet, don't tell us the number of "attempts" won, tell us the total number of rolls. It will provide a far different story and show exactly how your math is all sorts of screwed up
MichaelBluejay
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December 16th, 2015 at 9:43:31 PM permalink
Many of you are dinging the OP because you think he doesn't understand that he's playing a -EV game and that he should lose. In fact, he stated right in the original post that he knows he's supposed lose. Those of us who get the math have forgotten the math is all based on the primary assumption that the game is fair. In some jurisdictions, and with some dealers, that's not a rock-solid assumption. Certain states are notorious for corruption, so why would their casinos be exempt? When I first started counting cards early in my career, in one such state, I was so bad at it my lips were moving and my friend said she could hear me mumbling the count over and over. I should have been bounced pronto, but instead they let me play and wiped me out quickly. Fast-forward some years by which time I'd accumulated several hundred hours of play, and I know what a streak of bad luck looks like, and I'm still suspicious that in that early outing the dealer was dealing seconds or something.

It cuts both ways: Once a dealer seemed to be making errors in my favor ("seemed to" only because he was dealing so fast I was having a hard time both counting and adding up the card totals fast enough before they were swept away). I suspect those "mistakes" were intentional, with him hoping I'd reward him by tipping more. This was during a very brief time where the casino in question let the dealers keep their own tips rather than pooling them. That experiment lasted maybe a week or two, probably because it was leading to corruption. To wit: That same dealer kept encouraging me to *bet my entire stack*. His logic was probably that if I won big, he'd get a big tip, and if I lost, well, it wasn't *his* money. He kept saying, "Bet it all, put it all out there, man, bet it all!" The one and only time that happened was when the dealers kept their own tips.

Getting back on topic, I remember a case a few years back where a Strip casino was caught rigging a drawing so a favored customer would win. You read books by casino insiders, they're filled with stories of corruption. So it's not a stretch at all to imagine that a player could be cheated, especially in places that are loosely regulated or have a history of corruption.
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MrV
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December 16th, 2015 at 9:54:36 PM permalink
I was talking to a buddy who said many years ago while playing BJ in Las Vegas, the dealer marked the cards by putting little cuts in them with his finger nail.

He found the aces marked in a single deck.

I asked whether another player might have done it, and he said "No, it was the dealer."
"What, me worry?"
Ibeatyouraces
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December 16th, 2015 at 10:03:00 PM permalink
Most people forget that not only are they being shorted true odds payoffs, but in a lot, if not most cases, when you lose, you're paying the casino BETTER than true odds.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
odiousgambit
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December 17th, 2015 at 5:03:12 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

we bought in at our last craps table with $1,000. We won 3 bets for $25 each and cashed out to go see our show. Immediately after the show, we went back to the same table. I pulled the chips out of my pocket and all I had was a $500 chip and 3 $25 chips. WTF. I figured I dropped a $500 chip on accident. We talked to security, we went back and forth, talked to the pit boss and about 45 minutes later the pit boss did admit that they had "accidentally" underpaid us by $500



3 things come to mind with this story,

*it was no accident. Why the box-man admitted to it I don't know. All the dealers at the table knew he did it, said so to those asking, and he had to? Of course he would be fired and maybe the other dealers too, unless the casino is so corrupt the entire organization is in on the cheating.

*do you have any idea that surveillance caught the "mistake"?

*a box-man thinking he could get away with shorting someone a $500 chip, that he wouldn't notice, has to figure he is dealing with a very drunk person. Sorry, I can't imagine anything else.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rottenluck
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December 17th, 2015 at 11:43:04 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

3 things come to mind with this story,

*it was no accident. Why the box-man admitted to it I don't know. All the dealers at the table knew he did it, said so to those asking, and he had to? Of course he would be fired and maybe the other dealers too, unless the casino is so corrupt the entire organization is in on the cheating.

*do you have any idea that surveillance caught the "mistake"?

*a box-man thinking he could get away with shorting someone a $500 chip, that he wouldn't notice, has to figure he is dealing with a very drunk person. Sorry, I can't imagine anything else.



I was extremely tired and I'm sure my eyes were blood shot. We had been drinking but I wasn't noticeably drunk. Too drunk to blow for a cop in a DWI case, yes, but not drunk. I didn't even notice. It's like signing a credit card slip, they hand over the receipt, I sign it and NEVER read the total. I trust people, and casinos are teaching me their dealers are no longer to be trusted.

We went to security first. They brought us to the pit and he had to call his security. There are two separate banks of cameras. It was the video footage that lead to me getting my $500 back. The boxman did look guilty when he saw us being escorted to the pit boss with security. The casino is on the strip and has a $300 minimum craps table, so this is not a truck-stop casino. It's a very nice place, probably one of the nicest casinos in Vegas.

Besides, if cheating can go on in a dumpy casino in Louisiana or another state, why would Vegas be immune to it? Either it happens or it doesn't. Three mistakes by dealers who do this every day for a living, and all three mistakes just happen to work against my favor.
odiousgambit
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December 17th, 2015 at 12:27:49 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

The casino is on the strip and has a $300 minimum craps table, so this is not a truck-stop casino. It's a very nice place, probably one of the nicest casinos in Vegas.

Besides, if cheating can go on in a dumpy casino in Louisiana or another state, why would Vegas be immune to it? Either it happens or it doesn't.



Wow! Just as I was accepting that some place in Louisiana had gone to hell ... now it's Vegas too. [I had missed that]

If that box man is still employed I'd be astounded. I just don't see how he can think he paid somebody $1000 and change with one chip plus change [nah, no way he thought it was a $1000 chip either]. It was intentional.

Now, look, everyone that posts here is entitled to have such stories accepted at face value. But what you have described is quite alien to me. What I mean is, large color-ups in my experience get a lot of attention, everyone is looking, often the pit-boss himself. Wow. Just saying.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MathExtremist
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December 17th, 2015 at 12:33:12 PM permalink
I was going to comment about how a $300 minimum seems strange, but then I realized that dealers who are used to dealing at $15 minimum tables with red and green chips would have exactly the same physical movements at a $300 minimum table with black and purple chips. So that's actually clever from a management standpoint.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
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December 17th, 2015 at 12:39:38 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I was going to comment about how a $300 minimum seems strange...


Bellagio maybe. Their single zero roulette wheel is usually $300 minimum and the neighboring double zero wheel is $15.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rottenluck
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December 17th, 2015 at 1:32:42 PM permalink
I won't mention any specific names of casinos. Just to be clear, I wasn't playing at their $300 min table. I was at a $15 min table. The table was crowded and full. There was a lot of action. It could have been a mistake, but seriously, I know for a solid fact I would never be paid $1,075 as an accident if I colored up for $575. That would never happen. It does look to be intentional. And if it was, then how are the employees getting the money out of the count room? It's a big conspiracy.

My theory is that the employees (dealers and boxmen) are getting bonused on their paycheck if the table produces profits above a certain quota for their shift. That's the only simply explanation I can figure. And if that's how it is working, I would guess this is a fairly new policy that I would suspect would rather quickly blow up in their faces. YouTube is rather good at exposing things like this.

If the boxman who underpaid me was getting, say, half of the $500, if he got away with it, there would have to be a lot of people who are in on the conspiracy. Not saying that's impossible at all, but at some point, you'd think you'd have dealers talking on youtube, etc. after they were let go or fired or otherwise pissed off at their employer. Bitter employees are common as tap water.

There's a fine line between intentional fraud and an honest "accident".
MichaelBluejay
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December 17th, 2015 at 1:40:50 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I know for a solid fact I would never be paid $1,075 as an accident if I colored up for $575. That would never happen.


Don't bet on it. Once I was coloring up for $300, and the dealer must have had 3 on his mind because it was $300, so he made *three* stacks of $300, for $900 total. The other players dutifully kept their mouths shut. He called it out to the boss, "Color out, $300!" The boss glanced over and said, "Okay," then did a double-take and came up to the table and politely asked the dealer, "How much is that?" The dealer said, "Well it's....... Oh!"

That was at the Four Queens. I liked how the supervisor didn't jump down the dealer's throat for an honest mistake. At Terrible's the floor guy would have boxed the dealer's ears.
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muleyvoice
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December 17th, 2015 at 1:42:24 PM permalink
" There's a fine line between intentional fraud and an honest "accident". " FINE LINE , MY ASS !
rottenluck
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December 17th, 2015 at 1:49:16 PM permalink
MichaelBLueJay, yes, there was one person who did make a mistake in your favor, but the second person caught it. That's why there's always two that monitor a color up. Therefore, the mistake you describe doesn't count. It wasn't a mistake because you weren't over paid.

My mistake did have the eyes of two employees looking at it and I was short changed. The mistake counts. Odd how they caught their mistake when it benefits you but when the mistake benefits them it slips through.

Like I said earlier in this thread, I don't believe in coincidence.
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