rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 1:46:58 PM permalink
First, let me say, either the casinos are somehow cheating (and I don't have a conspiracy theory explaining how) or I have a cloud of bad luck hovering over my head for life.

Back in '09-'10, my friend introduced to me a craps system. Trust me, I'm really good with math, and I know there is never a way to beat the 1.4% hold in craps. It was 20X odds, starting with a $10 don't pass bet and then enough to win $200. Then a don't come and another don't come. Three points, with $780 to $1100 on the table hoping for a 7. I got killed. I am guessing I probably lost somewhere between $25k to $50k over a dozen or so "vacations" to Louisiana.

I dropped that "system" and decided to play for comps. $10,000 bank roll and $2,000 units on the Don't Pass. Either win $10,000 or lose $10,000. Won 3 sessions, lost 3 sessions. Then I altered my system to still bet $2k units, but either win $12K or lose $10k. Over 4 years, I'm down $40,000. The spreadsheet doesn't suggest anything terribly dishonest, considering I should lose $28 on every come out roll, although there has been some mild bad luck.

Decided to play 20X odds again for big money, starting with $100 on the Don't Pass and $2,400 to $4,000 against the point. Played it 4 times and lost $44,200.

Baccarat is what tipped me off. My wife records every bet we make. We started playing progressives last fall, starting with $25. Lose, bet $50. Lose that, bet $100. Up to $3,200. It was amazing how often we'd lose 8 in a row. We figured it out in Louisiana. My wife and I are always drinking, and we usually buy in for $7,000 cash. Win a few bets and then a dealer change. Next thing we know, we're making the $800 bet. The old man across from us had also bet on bank. The dealer was dealing SUPER FAST. She "accidentally" called a win a tie. The old man caught it. I colored up and got out. Come to think of it, this was a pattern I had seen in Vegas several times before. Drinking couple buys in with $7k cash, dealer change, new dealer is fast fast fast and next thing I know, I'm getting wiped out. When the ace is out there, it confuses things and the dealer goes super fast. Accidents happen, but always in the casino's favor. I probably lost around $40,000 on that learning lesson.

So now I am playing progressive craps, starting with $25. I've done the math, I lose 50.7% of the time. I should lose 8 in a row 1 out of every 229 attempts. We have played at a lot of different casinos starting on Aug 29th of this year and we've recorded every bet. We won 93 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won 76 attempts and got wiped out. Then we won exactly another 76 attempts and got wiped out yet again. Total record: 245 wins, 3 wipe outs. Total loss: $12,925. Theoretical loss is $722.16. Statistically speaking, we are 280.47% above target for wipe outs and actual loss exceeds theoretical loss by 1,789%. We're both convinced, if you buy in for $7K cash and play progressives, there is no way in hell you can possibly win even as few as 100 bets in a row without getting wiped out. In order to make things "normal", we should be able to win 439 bets in a row without a wipe out. There's no way in hell that could possibly happen. No way.

We started really watching the dice after an incident in Louisiana. Over the last 20 attempts, we've caught the dealers "accidently" calling a winning 7 a 6 and then taking my Don't bet after an 8 was rolled but the point was 4.

I know my sample size of 248 attempts isn't enough to prove anything, but combined with all the other "systems" and the never ending trail of bad luck along with the "accidents" from the super fast Baccarat dealers, my trust is about over with. I don't have a single system I can point to that's been successful.
Dodsferd
Dodsferd
Joined: Jun 10, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 1:57:00 PM permalink
You're playing negative expectation games, with the presumption that you're going to come out ahead. No, spread sheets don't lie, but misconceptions about odds are just as misleading as bad math.

Casinos don't cheat, you're just playing into their hands with bad decisions.
This feeling is heavy, makes my body ache and I'm ready; To fall into the sky and I see now, the reason why. My heart is heavy, takes me to a place I can't breathe. Only then I know why I see the warning sign.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:08:13 PM permalink
Welcome to the forum. Don't expect much sympathy if you discovered Marty would work alongside house edge to slaughter you. Thanks for being an example of that.
Quote: rottenluck

Back in '09-'10, my friend introduced to me a craps system.

Some friend!
Quote:

Trust me, I'm really good with math, and I know there is never a way to beat the 1.4% hold in craps.

So you expected to be a loser? Why come here all surprised?
Quote:

Over 4 years, I'm down $40,000.

Let's see now, Negative expectation game played with high stakes. What were you expecting?
Quote:

Baccarat is what tipped me off. My wife records every bet we make. We started playing progressives last fall, starting with $25. Lose, bet $50. Lose that, bet $100. Up to $3,200. It was amazing how often we'd lose 8 in a row.

So. You figure to expect such a bad streak every 229 hands or so. Count how many games you played with those super fast dealers.

Oh hum. Sounds like you must be playing for fun. Did you get good value? If not, you are gluttons for punishment.
Do the casino's 'cheat' by bringing on 'careless' fast dealers when the customers are throwing money away? I don't know. But with two of you watching and recording, you should be catching as many dealer errors against you as you are ignoring such errors in your favour.

There are plenty of posts here that illustrate the error of your ways. Use the search feature.

Meanwhile,
Good luck for the future.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:29:08 PM permalink
All I know is, if you bet $10 on the Don't Pass line and back it up with 20X odds, you should lose 14 cents per come out roll. Theoretical hold says you'd have to make over 178,000 bets to lose $25,000. I think I lost somewhere in the neighborhood of $25,000 to $50,000. A feat that would be nearly impossible to replicate on a dozen or so trips to the casinos with 2 hours of play per trip, on average.

I don't believe in coincidence.

I do believe in larger sample sizes and with small sample sizes, large deviations are entirely possible.

This string of bad luck dating back to 2009 is extremely consistent and therefore suspicious, especially in light of the fact that I don't have a single success story.

I remain fairly well convinced that if a vacationer, who is drinking, as most are, buys in to a craps table with $7,000 cash and plays progressives, beginning with $25... there is zero chance he will win 100 attempts in a row without getting wiped out for $6,375 first. I'd put the over/under at 50.

As for catching dealers "accidentally" making mistakes in the casino's favor, we never ever considered that a possibility until just a few months ago. I will never play a casino card game again unless I just want to kill time at $10 tables. Craps, I'm on the fence, and that's the reason for the thread/discussion.

If the dealers are intentionally trying to beat the players, that is a rabbit hole that I simply can't explain. How do they get paid? Why doesn't someone talk? Conspiracy theory big time, I have no theory, just my extremely consistent and therefore suspicious bad luck.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:48:56 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I do believe in larger sample sizes and with small sample sizes, large deviations are entirely possible.

This string of bad luck dating back to 2009 is extremely consistent and therefore suspicious, especially in light of the fact that I don't have a single success story.

I remain fairly well convinced that if a vacationer, who is drinking, as most are, buys in to a craps table with $7,000 cash and plays progressives, beginning with $25... there is zero chance he will win 100 attempts in a row without getting wiped out for $6,375 first. I'd put the over/under at 50.

Maybe. You were sure to realise how badly you were losing. But those were not flat bets. I bet your overall action was massive.
But still, I have some good news for you. For all your bad luck, someone is getting good luck (me) Check out the charts in my blog and this post where I expected to lose, but failed and won spectacularly.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/23617-my-winning-system-an-exercise-in-debunking where I turned £250.50 into £3603.50 over 3 days with barely one setback, while trying to debunk a hit and run money management system.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:54:50 PM permalink
I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's consistently suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed. I wonder if the Nevada Gaming Commission ever hears this complaint? I might give them a call tomorrow.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 2:59:06 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's must suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed.


What I meant was that you might have had say a $25 base bet, but with Marty betting your average bet would have been much much more. The more your average bet, the more your total action exposed to the house edge.
I won't be trying it. I already simulated the destructive power of Marty, admittedly on roulette even money betting.
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Dodsferd
Dodsferd
Joined: Jun 10, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I don't know what you mean by "flat bets". Basically, it's very simple. Bet the Don't pass on the come out roll, or the Pass Line. Either way, it's a 49.3% chance of winning. If you lose the bet, double the bet, pick a side, and bet again. The odds of losing 8 in a row are one out of 229 attempts. Should be 228 winners per every loser. I guarantee if you try this, you'll experience the same thing. Wipe outs will come at a pace that far exceeds theoretical. It's consistently suspicious. Try it. You'll see what I'm talking about. Guaranteed. I wonder if the Nevada Gaming Commission ever hears this complaint? I might give them a call tomorrow.



That much is clear.

Again, you're using a progressive betting strategy on a negative expectation game. Call the gaming board, and get in touch with a representative who can educate you on the odds of the game.
This feeling is heavy, makes my body ache and I'm ready; To fall into the sky and I see now, the reason why. My heart is heavy, takes me to a place I can't breathe. Only then I know why I see the warning sign.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:10:02 PM permalink
Agree, the theoretical hold is far far more than 1.4% of $25. Theoretical cost per attempt is $2.91. I'm cool with that and I understand that. 248 attempts is a very small sample size, but after getting killed on everything else leading up to this, surely you must understand why I'm suspicious.

Again, I'm 280.47% above target for wipe outs and over 1789% ahead of target for theoretical loss. I know the math. I understand the math. I've done the math.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:13:20 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

All I know is, if you bet $10 on the Don't Pass line and back it up with 20X odds, you should lose 14 cents per come out roll. Theoretical hold says you'd have to make over 178,000 bets to lose $25,000

That's if your average bet was $10. But your average bet with your system was MUCH MUCH more than that, so you had less bets, wasted less time and exposed yourself to greater variance.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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