rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:19:47 PM permalink
Oncedealer, agree with what you are saying. There was no record keeping with the $10 system and 20X odds, so I am just explaining, that, once again, this extremely consistent bad luck has been there for years. Again, if you were to win that much, less the .14 cent vig, on a dozen or so trips to the casino with 2-3 hours of play per trip, well, can't we both agree that the odds of that happening are extremely low.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:30:44 PM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

Oncedealer, agree with what you are saying. There was no record keeping with the $10 system and 20X odds, so I am just explaining, that, once again, this extremely consistent bad luck has been there for years. Again, if you were to win that much, less the .14 cent vig, on a dozen or so trips to the casino with 2-3 hours of play per trip, well, can't we both agree that the odds of that happening are extremely low.


Hmmmmmm.
Ok. You were damned unlucky. That's perhaps why you posted here. Let's say you were in the bottom 1% of players with similar wagering patterns and scale.
maybe the lucky 1% had equally consistent good luck. Maybe they are too busy sat on their yachts to post here. The 98% in the middle of the bell curve possibly don't think their experience worthy of posting.

Now, 'fess up, in all those years of play, did you ever go on 'tilt' to bet aggressively to catch up? Or were you REALLY so consistent in your base bet and on your leaving when goal met?
If 'yes', then again, you embraced the variance too much and your ROR would have been higher.

Read Romes' posts and get hold of the ROR calculator.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2015 at 3:35:39 PM permalink
So, on a $10 table you're betting DP 10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160 + 320 + 640 + 1280 (your top bet) PLUS 20x (of each of those?) odds on a 7k bankroll? I don't understand how you can afford to place full odds even above the 4th level, but maybe I'm confused about what you're doing now. For a net $10 if you win (plus odds) before you bust. Subject to a HE of $35.70 per progression, assuming you're holding your own and each progressive loss is canceled out by a progressive win.

At $25, your 8th bet is a progressive $6375 (last bet $3200) not counting odds, to try and get back that $25 you lost. Not really that many tables will even let you place that bet, but maybe you're in one. But there's 1 entire BR tied up in chasing losses on 1 progression, and costing you $89.25/progression even if you manage to balance.

I'm just having trouble imagining putting that much money at risk to win $25, especially with the HE working on those bets.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rottenluck
rottenluck
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December 13th, 2015 at 4:10:30 PM permalink
Thanks for reading. You are confusing two different strategies. The first strategy was to play $10 on the Don't, play 20X odds behind. Bet the Don't Come for $10, play 20X odds behind there too. Then another $10 bet on the Don't Come with 20X odds behind that one as well. Three numbers in action with 20X odds, hoping for a 7. Three $10 bets costing 14 cents each theoretical, and another $780 to $1,100 in odds bets hoping for a 7, with no house edge.

The system I'm messing with now is simple progressives, beginning with a $25 bet and ending with a $3,200 bet. Theoretical loss is $2.91 per attempt. Should see 228 successful attempts to every wipe out.

My actual results indicate that either I am consistently the most unlucky SOB on the planet or somehow the game is dishonest. I'm leaning towards the latter. My best friend, who plays about half the $$$$ I do, doesn't track his results on a spreadsheet, but he is also very regimented in his craps play and he has experienced very similar results. It is consistent, and therefore, very suspicious.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 13th, 2015 at 4:52:01 PM permalink
20x odds is some pretty crazy stuff to begin with, and if you aren't flat betting you are really doing some pretty insane stuff - unless 10s of thousands of dollars is not much money to you.

I've done simulations with Wincraps that consistently show bankrolls less than 100s of thousands of dollars at 10x are in grave danger. Flat betting too. I wouldn't even want to take a look at *pressing* bets at 20x odds. You, sir, have stepped foot in another universe, one us ordinary mortals only get to see with the Hubble telescope.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darthvader
darthvader
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December 14th, 2015 at 5:57:40 AM permalink
Dear Rottenluck,

Here's a tip. Always make sure that your Don't money is less than the Do money on the table. That is, past the come out roll, have yourself on the casino's side of the W/L.

Darth
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
rottenluck
rottenluck
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December 14th, 2015 at 6:59:02 AM permalink
So I had dinner with my good friend last night. Like I said, he is very regimented and systematic in his craps play. Like me, his "systems" have changed over the years. So we both have that in common. Another thing we have in common is this: we both agree that when either one of us is at a craps table, we are almost, like 99% of the time, the guy at the table betting the most money. If the casinos did have methods for cheating, if there is one player the casinos would want to beat, it would be me and him 99% of the time. (Oddly, we barely get free rooms and I was just told to F-off for a room on NYE in Louisiana and apparently my play isn't enough for a Sugar Bowl ticket even though that casino has at least two suites at the Super Dome that I'm aware of, maybe more. Another rant for another thread.)

So I asked him last night. He's a very intelligent guy, basically, have his results been anywhere close to expectation? Low and behold, he too, has consistently hit bad luck for YEARS. His losses are in the high five figures, maybe low six figures. Theoretical hold, he might be down maybe $5k at the most. He's smart, so most of his action is behind the line, with no house edge.

So not only is this never ending cloud of doom and horrible luck hovering over me for life, but that very same cloud of rotten luck just happens to follow him around everywhere he goes too. Wow, that's so odd. Just random happenstance, I'm sure.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:33:44 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

So I had dinner with my good friend last night. Like I said, he is very regimented and systematic in his craps play. . . . He's a very intelligent guy, basically, have his results been anywhere close to expectation? Low and behold, he too, has consistently hit bad luck for YEARS. His losses are in the high five figures, maybe low six figures.
So not only is this never ending cloud of doom and horrible luck hovering over me for life, but that very same cloud of rotten luck just happens to follow him around everywhere he goes too. Wow, that's so odd. Just random happenstance, I'm sure.



Jeez, You guys need to have dinner together, or talk to eachother more often.
There's a common theme running through this thread: Casino's win, Losers keep playing. You claim some intelligence for yourself and for your friend, but you think Martying a -ev game is a good idea.

I strongly recommend bringing in a third impartial judge. I'll do it for $25,000, which on current form would be a good deal for you both.

But seriously, would you share your spreadsheets with me and I'd be delighted to analyse and simulate going forward.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
rottenluck
rottenluck
Joined: Dec 13, 2015
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:33:46 AM permalink
I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

http://www.dicesetter.com/Casino%20Dice%20Surveys/Bias%20Dice.htm

Absolutely fascinating.
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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December 14th, 2015 at 7:56:20 AM permalink
Quote: rottenluck

I think everyone who plays craps should take the time to read this:

http://www.dicesetter.com/Casino%20Dice%20Surveys/Bias%20Dice.htm

Absolutely fascinating.



"Biased dice."

This notion has been explored and essentially dismissed in other, earlier threads.
"What, me worry?"

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