Any Input on This Field Strategy?

I'm new to craps (new to this forum also). I am researching and practicing strategies before I play.

I stumbled across this strategy on youtube:
(Betting the field after 3 consecutive rolls of 5,6,7,8)

I have been practicing it on wincraps with some success.

Anyone ever try this, or know if it works?

If this worked, there wouldn't be casinos.

Quote: tgotch

I stumbled across this strategy on youtube:

If you can, whenever you post a link, post as well a brief textual description.

In this case, perhaps it might be:
>I stumbled across this strategy on you tube that involves waiting for three non-field rolls in succession and then betting the field.

The best expert for this system is the craps dealer. Ask them what do they recommend to novices... the field. What is the craps dealer's term for The Field? "The Garden".... it grows tips!!

All joking aside, its simply too high a percentage against the player even if you have very obedient dice who remember that there have been three non-field rolls in succession and hear you tell them to do a field roll this time.

Is it better than a slot machine? You betcha it is! Is it better than being at a craps table and having no plan or discipline at all? You betcha it is! Is it fun? Well, give it a try if you would like to, but be sure to have your return ticket home too.

Quote: tgotch

Anyone ever try this, or know if it works?

It works just as well as betting the field at other times. The dice have no idea that they just rolled a 5, 6, 7, or 8 for 3 consecutive rolls, and they're no more likely to roll a field number on the next roll than on any other roll.

As many people will tell you, I do a lot of research into the game of craps.

The field bet, when the 12 pays triple here in Las Vegas, is a good bet for a beginner.

The reason why is:

* It only lasts one roll
* Every number that wins is clearly marked on the bet
* The house edge is only half as much as roulette with double zero
* If you bet it for a large sum of money and the 12 comes, it can be lots of fun!
* It's a self-service bet so you can make the bet without any assistance or help from the dealers

There is an entire class of craps players, many of which won't even roll the dice, that make big and bold field bets and head for the door at the first sign of a profit.

A single bet in the field is, in fact, much better than doing a single spin on the roulette wheel no matter how you arrange your chips.

I have observed the field having a player advantage over the course of over 375 consecutive tosses of the dice. So it is possible to have a hot streak in the field. All you need to accomplish this is more than the expected number of 12's coming. That's when the field pays more than it does on average.

The subject of how the conditions can arise for more 12's than normal is like pandoras box. Once you open up that topic, all hell breaks lose. But the short answer is that there are people that believe that no matter if it's cosmic intervention, something weird going on with the dice, or a shooter that has a propensity to roll more 12's, if you have a hunch you're seeing more 12's because of something about the way the shooter is shooting the dice or if you have any other guess that you're seeing a lot of other field numbers, the field can and will yield a profit routinely over the course of 40 consecutive bets of the same amount.

Usually by the time you get into the hundreds of bets, you no longer have much chance to have a profit if you're betting the same amount in the field each time.

And by the time you bet it 1000 times for the same amount, you're going to be more likely to have lost 2.78% of each time you bet that bet on average (that's about $139 for 1000 rolls at a $5 bet).

So if you bet it for $5 every roll for an hour, which is about 100 rolls of the dice, and you expect to lost $14 per hour doing this, that's about right. You can easily get lucky and break even, or even come out ahead, but on average that's what you should expect!

The same $5 on the passline for every roll you would expect to lose $2.10 instead of $14.

I hope this is helpful, and good luck and have fun!

Quote: tgotch

I stumbled across this strategy on youtube [for field betting]

There is no such thing as a good strategy that justifies field betting.

Indeed, there is no such thing as a good "craps strategy" on You Tube.

Quote: Ahigh

The field bet, when the 12 pays triple here in Las Vegas, is a good bet for a beginner.

Regardless whether the field bet pays triple on the 12, it is still not a good or smart bet even for beginners.

Simply because the field bet may be easy for a beginner to understand does not make it a smart bet. And just because the house edge on the field bet may not be as high as a slots or roulette, doesn't make it a smart bet either.

Consider that the house edge for the field bet (assuming triple for the 12) is more than 7 times higher than betting the line with 3x-4x-5x odds.

Quote: Ahigh

So it is possible to have a hot streak in the field.

You can rationalize just about any bet on the craps table by suggesting that a "hot streak" will give you a great return for your bet. Hell, bet the 2 or the 12 if you expect a hot streak of those numbers. Or the Hops bets.

But trying to anticipate "hot streaks" will not pay off in the long run.

It may be "fun" to bet based on all kinds of hunches or intuition (or astrology or prayer or anything else that may be guiding you), but if you want to play "smart" then avoid the field altogether.

Quote: tgotch

I'm new to craps (new to this forum also). I am researching and practicing strategies before I play.


I have been practicing it on wincraps with some success.

Anyone ever try this, or know if it works?

Hey I'm about to save you a lot of money right now...

The words "strategy" and "field" should never be mentioned in the same sentence.

If you plan on playing craps... The field is like a bad habit... It won't hurt you all the time and it even feels good but after a while, you'll wish you never started it.

Good luck

Quote: tgotch

I have been practicing it on wincraps...

I meant to say that it is an excellent idea to practice away from the casino where you are not using actual money. And WinCraps is an excellent program to try out different scenarios.

Quote: TheWolf713

The words "strategy" and "field" should never be mentioned in the same sentence.

Some would say that the words "strategy" and "craps" should also not be mentioned in the same sentence.

Given the above arguments, what's your strategy for dealing with people who make internet forums less entertaining for you?

Look: I explained the cost very clearly! There are costs with gambling for ANY non-AP play.

If somebody wants to pay an extra $12/hour to have an easier game to play, GO FOR IT!

There's nothing dumb about paying more money for something that is easier to understand.

All your perspectives are those of someone with more experience.

The less experienced person might not have fun trying to play the game the way that you do it.

People who get tired of waiting for a bet to resolve are more likely to take on more risk than they should. And there are many other pitfalls of playing the game "the way it is SUPPOSED to be played."

Fewer and bigger bets in the field could quite possibly do better than a typical session of yours, Jimbo!!! 1/7th the number of rolls is a savings of time if you look at it that way, and my time is worth a lot of money. I'm just sayin'!

No, it does not work. Stick to

Ahigh, you explained with a lame backhanded attempt to say that someone might be able to control 12's coming up more often. You took half a page to say nothing that could help him. He wants to learn craps not search for a unicorn.

The field is not a good bet compared to other options while you are learning. If you want to learn how to play craps, start with a passline bet. That's just as easy to learn and a way better bet. Add odds once your comfortable with how the passline works. You could just play passline and odds and watch everything else and be in way better shape then trying any "system" on the field.

Good luck!

ZCore13

Quote: Ahigh

The less experienced person might not have fun trying to play the game the way that you do it.

Quote: Ahigh

Fewer and bigger bets in the field could quite possibly do better than a typical session of yours, Jimbo!!!

Now calm down, Aaron. Please don't take it personal if my advice may differ from yours.

And, yes, you did explain the "costs" of the field bet.

Just because someone is a beginner, does not mean they have to play "dumb" (and please do not interpret that I am suggesting you play dumb--or we will go off on a tangent).

I did advise "tgotch" that it is a good idea to practice away from the casino where he can learn the game without risking actual money. I am also sure that if he runs simulations on WinCraps, he will become a more informed player.

And I did say--or meant to say--that there is a difference in playing for "fun" or playing "smart."

I will never begrudge or criticize someone for approaching the game differently than I do. To each their own. Many people are not interested in playing craps in such a way where the house edge is the lowest. Just look at all the bets in the center of the table. Also consider your own play.

Many people are "gamblers" who play for fun and the thrill of catching that "hot" shooter or, as you put it, that possible "hot streak."

However, if a beginner (apparently with a genuine and sincere desire to learn) asks specifically about betting the field, then I am going to advise him to avoid betting the field. Because under no circumstance is it a "smart" bet. Nor is there any such thing as a "strategy" that justifiably includes the field bet.

I do not view the game of craps as so complicated that it is imperative for a beginner to bet where the house edge is higher simply because that particular bet may be easier to understand. If that were the case, then the advice for beginners is to bet the Seven--since nothing could be more simple--yet that bet has the highest house edge on the table.

Quote: Ahigh

Given the above arguments, what's your strategy for dealing with people who make internet forums less entertaining for you?

I don't know what that is supposed to mean. Not that it matters.

Quote: Beethoven9th

No, it does not work.

Any system will work until it stops working. Given a sufficient number of events, all betting systems fail.

But there are in fact some people who bet fewer than 10 bets per year on the game. The field only becomes a bad way to play the game the more you play it that way.

If we compare apples to apples, and look at the advantage per bet, the difference isn't even 7x. It's more like 2x.

Some people don't want to stand there all day long and just want to make one bet and be done.

It's still better than roulette for that type of player.

Your comments are very myopically assuming that people who don't think they way you do don't exist.

It does work! It ABSOLUTELY WORKS for more 44% of the people who only ever want to make one craps bet in their life!

And 2.78% of those people QUADRUPLE THEIR MONEY!

Stop thinking like the way you do it is the only way that is worthwhile.

Quote: Beethoven9th

The less experienced player will have more fun becoming a more experienced player and forgetting about the Field.

Or they could become a degenerate gambler and lose everything they worked for their entire life. But I'm sure you know better than me that they will have more fun the more they play.

And for anyone reading, betting the field and losing a hundred bucks or two hundred bucks while you're watching others lose more money doing more complicated things is not a bad idea.

The worst thing I hate to see is someone taking the "smart" odds bet betting way more than they feel comfortable betting normally because "it's a good deal" and losing way more money than they ever imagined they might because they got unlucky.

For NEARLY every one of these people, there's another person who wins.

But the sad story side can be very sad, is all.

I watched mathematically intelligent old man lose over five grand at lunch today thinking he was betting smart by getting the best house edge on the don't pass with full odds on a $25 minimum table.

He sure did get unlucky on my roll. He kept chasing and losing and chasing and losing.

But he had a great bet in theory.

The dealers assured me not to worry about his money as he loses often.

I won a $50 pass line bet with $150 odds on a 4-point. He lost MUCH more than I won on that roll! But he had a better house edge than I did, so that counts for something.

The nice thing is that the house gave me no heat at all to roll that winning roll.

The bottom line is, bet however you want, but the field has a 2.78% edge per roll. You are better off sticking with bets that have lower edges per roll, and I agree with that. But bet small in the field and learn the game if you want, and don't let the "smart guys" who lose more than you worry you with their condemnation of your naive approach to the game. You're fine if you can handle the higher edge with smaller bets, don't worry about it.

Another nice thing about the field is that it can win when the table is what the smart guys would call "cold." Lots of crap rolls means come away, but single the field, or double, or triple.

So you're sort of betting on crap and you're betting on numbers that don't come up as often as the numbers in the middle (the 5, 6, 7, and the 8).

Most of the "smart" betters are betting on the 6 and 8 either through odds or place bets.

If they are losing on a long roll, you can be laughing in the field while they are digging for more money.

One more point about the field, if you must bet the field, don't combine it with a passline or come bet at the same time. This is not as smart.

If you bet the field, don't take a bunch of other bets as you can unintentionally be hedging and making it much harder to win.

Quote: Ahigh

And for anyone reading, betting the field and losing a hundred bucks or two hundred bucks while you're watching others lose more money doing more complicated things is not a bad idea.

This suggestion of yours is not only a bad idea--it is an absurd and terrible idea.

No one should pay anything while watching others play at the craps table. It is free to watch.

And but for the nominal cost of a software program such as WinCraps (or the free use of craps simulations on the internet), no one need pay anything to learn the game away from the casino.

Your remark about your lunch session where you won while a "mathematically intelligent don't player" lost as if that is somehow supportive of your argument for betting the field or for playing dumb does not deserve a response.

Quote: Jimbo

Your remark about your lunch session where you won while a "mathematically intelligent don't player" lost as if that is somehow supportive of your argument for betting the field or for playing dumb does not deserve a response.

Let me be more specific: smart people lose too! The way to win at the game isn't to be smart, it's to be lucky.

In the short term, being smart about the difference in the edge between the pass line and the field doesn't even MATTER. It's only in the longer term that it matters.

If you are suggesting not to play the game until you know how to play it, I STRONGLY DISAGREE.

Play and bet the game as you learn. You tell someone to bet the pass line to be smart, and they don't get it yet, they'll be making bets with a 33.33% house advantage. Did you ever consider that?

I'll say it again, don't let experienced people tell you that your field bet is a bad bet. It's still about twice as good as playing double zero roulette any way you slice it if you get triple in the field.

I will make another point: the field bet is the easiest bet on the felt for a new player to understand. How about you prove me wrong on that point?

Quote: Ahigh

You tell someone to bet the pass line to be smart, and they don't get it yet, they'll be making bets with a 33.33% house advantage.

I am inclined not to respond. You seem so consumed or obsessed on wanting the last word, you can have it.

I am sure the original poster has the answer to his question.

But I am baffled by your above remark that betting the pass line will be giving up a 33.33% house advantage. I am sure you are itching to enlighten me.

Quote: Jimbo

This suggestion of yours is not only a bad idea--it is an absurd and terrible idea.

I disagree. In fact, your suggestion that the player learn about the game before they play it is what is absurd.

Some people want to play a simpler game than you. The extra seven cents per $5 bet on the field compared to a pass line bet is worth it if you only ever want the minimum amount on the felt at a time. There are LOTS of new players that this is EXACTLY what they want.

We are arguing about $0.07 for a player who isn't ready to make a single $30 bet or higher on a $5 table. This describes almost ALL new players in my mind.

My opinion about your advice is that you shouldn't play craps unless you understand how odds work.

I disagree.

That pretty much sums it all up!!

Quote: tgotch

I have been practicing it on wincraps with some success.

My guess is you will win the very next bet
after 3 no-fields, on average, 44.4% of the time (4 out of 9)

But are you thinking of doing some kind of negative progression to win just one time??

Quote: tgotch

Anyone ever try this,

Sure, I have tried it many times.
Even waiting just 2 non-fields then betting the field.

Also waiting for 6 non-fields and betting the field.

IMO, Too much waiting for a 4 in 9 chance to win on the very next bet.

How about this.
ONLY bet the field after it just hit.
if it loses, wait until the next field hits and bet the very next roll.
Chance of success = 16/36 or 4 in 9 (44.4%)

Quote: tgotch

or know if it works?

Sure it works.
It works about 44.4% of the time for the very next roll.
there will be variance around that 44.4% figure for X rolls,
but you did not ask about that.

You did not ask but...
Want a higher win rate?

Bet the pass line for 49.3% chance of winning
Not high enough??

Lay the 4 or the 10 and win 66.67% of the time.
The best it gets for just one bet made

Quote: Jimbo

But I am baffled by your above remark that betting the pass line will be giving up a 33.33% house advantage. I am sure you are itching to enlighten me.

You didn't tell them not to bet the pass line after the point is already marked up on a 4 or a 10. You would know about the pitfalls of a new player if you gave them advice as often as I do while at the table.

The first question I would ask a new player is "what's the most amount of money you are comfortable losing on a single toss of the dice."

You pretty much assume that somebody is okay with that being $30.

If I got that answer, and the person wasn't so stupid as not to make a put bet, I would agree with you.

But there are plenty of new players who can have just as much fun resolving their bets immediately and getting a triple every now and then and jumping up and down.

KISS.

Quote: Ahigh

Any system will work until it stops working.

Quote: Ahigh

Some people don't want to stand there all day long and just want to make one bet and be done.

Quote: Ahigh

If they are losing on a long roll, you can be laughing in the field while they are digging for more money.

Quote: Ahigh

One more point about the field, if you must bet the field, don't combine it with a passline or come bet at the same time. This is not as smart.

Thank you Aaron. Your gems--several of which I quoted above--have been a source of enlightenment for me today.

Quote: Ahigh

your suggestion that the player learn about the game before they play it is what is absurd.

This has to be the best all time.

Quote: Ahigh

You would know about the pitfalls of a new player if you gave them advice as often as I do while at the table.

You have no clear idea as to what I know about the game of craps and what advice I offer others. On the other hand, based on your postings, I have a fairly good idea as to the advice you give while you are at the table.

Every time Ahigh posts I can't stop thinking about the song by the Talking Heads... "Same as it ever was". Such nonsense.

ZCore13

Not nonsense assuming you can realize that different people have different perspectives.

I have told the Wizard to his face that some of his advice on how to bet rubs me the wrong way.

You guys who follow his advice based purely on mathematics and "in the long run..." are actually a MINORITY of craps players. I know because I see craps players all day long, and VERY FEW OF THEM bet the way that the Wizard or you guys describe.

In your myopic worlds, collectively, these people are just wrong.

In my world, they aren't. They are legitimate craps players having fun playing the game. As a matter of fact, on average, THEY define how the game is played, not your mathematical approach to how "best" play the game. The REAL world is them, not you! And the real world of playing craps is not an intelligent person "learning the game before you play." That's just how it is whether you like it, or not!!!

And they play the game in a way that you guys think is wrong.

Clearly, there is not a right or a wrong way to have fun pissing away your money at the casino.

You do it however the hell you want!

You guys that subscribe to the fact that the only way to play the game is the way that people on this forum generally agree on have very limited methods of considering what this game is for.

As a matter of perspective, this forum, and the Wizard himself, are generally against the idea of people "foolishly" letting their money be lost in the casino. I think the dogma that's shared on here for craps is that you want to make the process of losing all of your money be as slow and drawn out as possible, maximizing the time you have to spend to get rid of it all by lowering the edge to almost give you a false sense of hope that you could win. But KEEP PLAYING, of course, to get that EXPERIENCE so you can play SMARTER.

LOL.

My opinion is that if you wanna go and waste your money, don't let some smart ass tell you you're wrong. Go for it! Your life is probably not as troubled as his if you're alright with losing and having fun at the same time.

I think I just saw a post from a myopic member of this forum basically saying that they cannot understand someone intentionally losing their money.

So there ya go!

Call me what you want, but all I am saying is there is more than one valid way of losing your money.

If you want to be strict as strict can be, the only true answer is BE SMART DON'T START.

Don't pretend that a smaller edge will prevent you from losing it all!

And definitely don't pretend that your playing the game for more years than someone else makes you smarter. Especially if you're lost more on the game than the person asking the questions!

Ahigh,

So how often do you make field bets? How well does that go with those 6s & 8s you love to throw?

I respect your perspective, but why would you promote something that you don't even use...

I'm a live player as well, and My perspective is "it's a bad habit" I don't play it.... And I am almost certain after he plays a while, he'll do the same..

Quote: Ahigh

Your comments are very myopically assuming that people who don't think they way you do don't exist.

It does work! It ABSOLUTELY WORKS for more 44% of the people who only ever want to make one craps bet in their life!

And 2.78% of those people QUADRUPLE THEIR MONEY!

Stop thinking like the way you do it is the only way that is worthwhile.

The last field bet I made was a $60 field bet and it hit aces. That was when I was counting faces at Fiesta Henderson and the previous 375 rolls I recorded were showing a 2% player edge in the field if those face distributions held.

If I have a point it is this: don't be so narrow minded. We are talking about GAMBLING IN A CASINO not heart surgery.

You lose in the long run no matter what you do until you get to AP.

So few people successfully do AP, it's another subject.

Some people who lose real quick and never gamble again are WAY BETTER OFF FOR IT in the long run.

But hell no I don't do field bets on random shooters shooting what I believe are fair dice!

If I do a field bet, I'll use a boxcar set. And even that, it's hard to overcome the house edge.

But in theory, I could. I just prefer to bet lower edge bets instead.

Before I used my software to advise my sets, plenty of people won money with field and even horn bets on my throw because those 12's were coming out like crazy between June and August 2012 on my rolls with the boxcar set.

But again, and to reiterate, please stop the myopia! Even stupid ways of gambling are maybe more stupid than relatively more intelligent ways of gambling and still having a negative expectation. They are both considered just as stupid by people that are smart enough not to gamble in the first place. Context!!!!

IE: it's splitting hairs as far as a new-comer is concerned. All the things we're arguing between are still twice as good as roulette on the edge side of things.

Quote: Ahigh

Or they could become a degenerate gambler and lose everything they worked for their entire life. But I'm sure you know better than me that they will have more fun the more they play.

After only one month here, the new god of craps: "Rymes with Tebow"!

Alright, I give up.

How about this opinion: only stupid people bet the field, DUH!!!!

Does that make me fit in better here or what?!?!

Let's keep these conversations on rails.

After all, nobody can handle a suggestion that a field bet isn't stupid. So let's just go with the stupid thing then.

Oh my god all those people playing craps are retarded! IKR!!! Hardways and field bets!! Why stop there when you can bet the any seven bet for $50,000 at Caesar's Palace! Or maybe a $50,000 put bet after the point is established at a four! Gawd how stupid people are out there to make a $5 field bet!!!

Yeah those people are stupid and I'm smart making max odds and come bets only. Yeah. Smart me.

Ohoh. another screw is coming loose...

ZCore13

I do understand that ahigh was trying to the give a different perspective... And yes most beginners do play the field... But when a person grabs software and begins research, I believe he is looking to be brought up to speed versus "playing wild fun and free".

past rolls do no influence future rolls at all. This is a very noobish video.


Try this is you want an 83.333% winner and only 16.666% loser

you need $205, ABS (Anything But Seven) or AB7

place the 5 for $50,and the 6and 8 for $60 each. Now chuck the last $35 on the field

here is what happens based on what rolsl

2 - $70 double
3 - $35
4 - $35
5 - $70 - $35 field = $35
6 - $70 - $35 field = $35
8 - $70 - $35 field = $35
9 - $35
10 - $35
11 - $35
12 - $105

if you roll a 7 your dusted and lose the whole $205

so you have 30 winners and 6 losers

you can expect to win $38.50 per win and -$205 when you lose

win 5/6 times
lose 1/6 times

Quote: nezbit

Try this is you want an 83.333% winner and only 16.666% loser

All that fun and at a cost of just $15 a throw.

I have been playing craps for almost 40 years, and I bet the field sometimes. I've been lucky at it lately.

A house edge of 2.78% doesn't bother me too much. It's all a matter of degree.

Quote: nezbit

Try this is you want an 83.333% winner and only 16.666% loser

you need $205, ABS (Anything But Seven) or AB7

place the 5 for $50,and the 6and 8 for $60 each. Now chuck the last $35 on the field

Quote: nezbit

Try this is you want an 83.333% winner and only 16.666% loser

you need $205, ABS (Anything But Seven) or AB7

place the 5 for $50,and the 6 and 8 for $60 each. Now chuck the last $35 on the field

The "Anything But Seven" is a known "system" of using the field as some sort of "hedge" in conjunction with betting other numbers to insure getting paid in all circumstances--except, of course, in the case of a seven. In fact, there is an Auto-Bet for this in WinCraps (anybut7.bet). I also recall vaguely reading about this "system" in a book--maybe the Mensa Guide to Gambling, but I can't be certain.

I don't know if "nezbit" is advocating this "system" as a smart way to play or whether it is suggested only as a way to at least collect on a bet more times than not even though the overall loss exceeds the overall win. The bottom line is that the losses in the case of a seven wipe out the wins.

By the way, I don't believe in "systems" which is why I put the word in quotes. Like the Wizard and most people on this Forum, I also do not believe in a hedge. A "hedge" is a method of insurance that is meant to protect against risk. It should not be used to increase losses.

As I figure it, the house edge on using the "Anything But Seven" is 3.14% which is higher than the house edge for simply betting the field (which is 2.78%). I also read that the house edge on this system is 3.97% but I could not conclude how that was figured. Someone else can gladly correct or educate me. Perhaps the Wizard has calculated this already.

Another "system" is to cover all six points with place bets as well as betting the field--so that the 4, 9, and 10 will be paid twice. Though there will be double payoff ten times, there is a reduction in winnings 14 times. I believe the house edge here is a little lower than the "Anything But Seven" but still higher than if you bet the field by itself.

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/

Search for "MENSA" ..

To be fair, the edge per roll is lowered not raised with this system compared to a simple field bet.

The problem with the system is that it requires more money on the felt and has more exposure to a seven requiring a larger bankroll to be effective.

Many of these "anything but seven" approaches are advocated to be used on players who are expected to roll fewer than the average number of sevens.

The MP204 is a similar system that just pushes on crap and yo rolls compared to the iron cross. But it's equally bad for exploiting dice control (avoiding sevens) because the edge per roll is too high.

But if all you can do it avoid sevens, I think working the comeout with max odds is a far superior method of play where you just have to get a comfort level for the ups and downs.

MENSA, Iron Cross, and MP204 "systems" in general appeal to people who have learned a little bit about the game and are generally more interested to employ a system than to have fun playing the game or get serious about having enough of an edge for it to matter (which takes a lot more effort!)

Even when they work, most get a profit on average of $1 per roll or less with hundreds of dollars at risk of a seven being rolled at any moment.

For a new player who is looking for a system, it might be quicker to use systems on roulette as you will learn more quickly how systems don't work compared to craps where you could be left chasing a red herring for a long time before coming to the final conclusion that you are merely postponing a huge loss rather than avoiding it entirely.

There is also a "four rolls no seven" bet at Sam's Town, and I recently posted how to engineer a "Three rolls no seven bet" on my website. Both of these bets have pretty good edges per roll similar to the MENSA and Iron Cross systems.

http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic227.html

At 1.1412% edge per roll (EPR) for four rolls no seven and 1.8215% EPR for three rolls no seven (adding a 3-way red after the third roll), these both compare favorably to the 1.136% EPR on the other system of not rolling sevens mainly due to the lack of need of such a large amount of money being exposed. IE: you only have to bet $5 for a four rolls no seven to get a 1.136% EPR at Sam's Town. So for a small time bet, Sam's Town's no seven bet is a better deal than the Mensa approach. Also the dealers don't have to take so long to set it up.

But it's still the type of thing where if you're alright with 1% edge per roll or higher, you're probably more into systems than you are into trying to have a good shot that gives you an advantage.

There is merit to playing systems. Some people like postponing financial stress as evidenced by our country's use of credit cards.

Different strokes for different folks!

so you can expect to win $38.50 per win and lose $41 per loss (this is averaged 30 wins vs 6 losses)

so on a $205 bet you can expect to lose (38.50 - 41) $2.50 per throw


-$2.50 / $205 wagered = -1.2195% expected value

not bad for a table game ( this percentage drops if 12 is only a double )



I have stated this before in other threads, i seriously hope this is the system that the DI/DC use. If they can "honestly avoid the 7" then they will/should have an edge and might as well get paid for every throw except a 7.

yes i have heard it called the iron cross as well.

You can obviously do different variations of the bet sizing as well. I just use the "205" because that is where i am comfortable bankroll wise personally.

Thanks Ahigh (Aaron) for your link to Mensa. I thought it was in that book, among other places, where I read about this. I just didn't take the time to look it up.

I regret that I don't agree with your notion that there is merit to playing systems or your rationalization for playing "Anything But Seven"--such as the edge per roll being lowered (?) or where it is advocated for use with those players who are expected (?) to roll fewer than the average number of sevens.

But I must say you are passionate about that which you write.

Sincerely, when there is time, it is always a pleasure to read your posts.

Quote: nezbit

so you can expect to win $38.50 per win and lose $41 per loss (this is averaged 30 wins vs 6 losses)

so on a $205 bet you can expect to lose (38.50 - 41) $2.50 per throw

-$2.50 / $205 wagered = -1.2195% expected value

I thought the math on determining the house edge for this system was pretty straightforward.

Using your suggested bet amounts, the total wins on 36 rolls of the dice is $1,155. The total losses are $1,230. That being the case, the house edge is 3.1446%

Again, I will be glad if someone corrects my math.

lets just look at the per throw

3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 pay $35
2 pays $70
12 pays $105

added up that equals

3/11 - 4 combos ($35*4) = $140
4/10 - 6 combos ($35*6) = $210
5/9 - 8 combos ($35*8) = $280
6/8 - 10 combos ($35*10) =$350
2 - 1 combo ($70*1) = $70
12 - 1 combo ($105*1) = $105

this is a grand total of $1155

7 - 6 combos (-$205*6) = $1230


$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw (sorry my math in above post was off, i divided by 30 above instead of 36)

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%

This is correct. - even better than above mentioned.

lets look at the field bet

16 winners 20 losers (think we all know this)

$5 wagered on field has expected value of (12 pays triple)



$95 wins - 16 winners
$100 losses - 20 losers

95/36 = 2.63889
100/36 = -2.77778

-$0.13889 per throw

-0.13889/$5 = -2.7778%



12 pays double?

$90 wins - 16 winners
$100 losses - 20 losers

90/36 = 2.5
100/36 = -2.77778

-$0.27778 per throw

-0.27778/$5 = -5.5556%

in conclusion...dont bet field without the triple for the 12

My conclusion: Set the 6's on top and throw a knuckleball.

Quote: nezbit

$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw (sorry my math in above post was off, i divided by 30 above instead of 36)

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%

I am not trying to be argumentative here.

I thought the proper formula for determining the house edge in this situation is:

(Loss) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss) less (Gain) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss).

Again, if someone else who is knowledgeable wants to chime in, they are welcome.

The fallacy of a hedge is the idea that you can combine different bets with different house edges and somehow, magically, come up with an overall lower house edge.

I agree with you that the house edge for the Field is 2.78%. The house edge for placing the 6 and 8 is 1.52%. The house edge for placing the 9 is 4.00%. I don't think there is any way mathematically possible to combine those bets to arrive at a combined lower house edge.

But as DeMango reminded me, I've only been on the Forum a month, so I am undoubtedly mistaken.

Quote: Jimbo

(Loss) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss) less (Gain) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss).

I just saw where I had a "typo" when I first posted this and I edited/corrected my mistake. Sorry for the initial confusion.

Quote: Jimbo

The fallacy of a hedge is the idea that you can combine different bets with different house edges and somehow, magically, come up with an overall lower house edge.

Let's say that one already has a $50 don't pass bet established with 4 as the point.

What is the house edge when one hedges that bet by buying the 4 for $30?

Quote: tupp

Let's say that one already has a $50 don't pass bet established with 4 as the point.

What is the house edge when one hedges that bet by buying the 4 for $30?

I suppose if the $50 don't pass bet that you have made is a "life altering" amount--in the sense that the loss of $50 is something that you could not sustain--then only in that instance would you even remotely consider hedging the bet.

To begin with, on the don't pass with 4 as the point, you are already a 2 to 1 favorite to win the bet. There is nothing you can do to improve those odds. You can take a better advantage of your favorable position by laying odds against your don't pass bet. You are still the 2 to 1 favorite regardless.

When you buy the 4 for $30, all you've done is create a second, separate bet with its own individual house advantage. In this case 4.76%.

Combining the bet for buying the 4 with your original don't pass bet, all you've done is to take away from your initial advantage over the house.

If you goal is to be paid "something" regardless of the outcome of the resolution of the point number (4 in this case), then this is certainly a way to achieve that goal.

But as a "strategy," this would not make any sense, since the reason you are the 2 to 1 favorite with the 4 as the point is that you succeeded in getting to the point, i.e. you did not lose the don't pass bet on the come out throw when you are at a clear disadvantage.

Once you get pass the come out roll (on a don't bet), enjoy your advantage over the house. Don't diminish it.

Quote:

Ahigh

Alright, I give up.

How about this opinion: only stupid people bet the field, DUH!!!!

There are no bad bets on any craps table if the are being rolled!

There are a lot of good bets, that the players will never get paid on!

No system works all the time, but they do work some of the time!

I've showed other players how to profit from the field if their timing is right!
There is nothing wrong with a field bet, if it pays 3 x's on the 12. It has a lower house edge then a lot of placed bets.

My wife loves the field bet and I hate to see her making it because she doesn't know when the time is right, nor does she want to take any advice as to when to place a field bet.

You can't play craps by only the math of the game, you are only there for the short run, not the long run when the math of the game kicks in.

Ahigh the problem with arguing with anybody on one of these boards is, you don't even know if they play the game more then a few times a year. Most live where they don't even have casinos, they have to travel hours just to get to one. They have their minds made up, and their way is the only way to bet the game!

If you live in a town like Vegas, your way of thinking about how you bet the game changes, because you see so many thing happening on the craps tables. If you want to win you have to be open on other ways of betting the game. There is no text book way of betting that will work all of the time.

There is a big difference between winning and surviving at the craps tables. Do you want to be a winner, or are you happy with just being a survivor?
I know good DI's that never make money because of the safe way they bet, sure they survive to play the next day, but they are always going to be losers, because of the way they play it safe. Their wins never cover what they will lose!