"When" does dice influence start???
How many times have you seen this? How many times have you seen a person go through a 30 second dice ritual and 7 out before your drink order comes back?
There have been many threads lately about cheating and biased dice, but I wanted to ask a few questions that maybe someone can answer..
When does Dice influence Actually start during a roll? And exactly When does it end?
What's the difference between a 'influenced' 6 or 8 and a random 6 & 8? Do you count only one of them?
Does increasing the amount of sevens thrown count as influence too?
Quote: TheWolf713Does increasing the amount of sevens thrown count as influence too?
Sure does for us don't bettors. Where do we sign up?
Quote: sodawaterthe entire endeavor of "dice influence" is one giant circlejerk in the practice of confirmation bias.
But fun is had by all, isn't that the purpose of
such a circle?
Quote: TheWolf713When does Dice influence Actually start during a roll? And exactly When does it end?
What's the difference between a 'influenced' 6 or 8 and a random 6 & 8? Do you count only one of them?
Does increasing the amount of sevens thrown count as influence too?
No individual roll is a sign of 'influence'. Which is part of the problem for proving it actually exists.
Quote: thecesspitNo individual roll is a sign of 'influence'. Which is part of the problem for proving it actually exists.
Exactly....
Each roll is independent so a DI's mindset would be something like this...
Influenced roll
Influenced roll
Random roll off axis
Ehh kind of influenced roll (because it's a number they feel is in their advantage)
Random roll
7 out (yet it would like all the other 'influenced' rolls)
So is the picking and choosing of certain rolls at your leisure one of the prerequisites for being a DI? Just trying to understand the mindset..
This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.
TeddyS was with me. But I was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.
I was getting heat yesterday more than usual. I think it's just because Teddy is so suspicious looking though. Normally I am just laughing it up and there are no worries. But they were criticizing my shot all day at half the places I went to play.
At LVH all my shots were 100% fine, and they criticized me for taking too long. When they did that I sent the dice back to the center and asked the stick Michael, the hispanic stick man who looked like Cheech Marin, "what?" IE: I took more time to have him clarify the "rule" that I have to shoot more quickly.
I told him "I don't know of any rule that I have to play at a certain speed!" It began to turn into an argument, and I quickly sevened out and asked, "are you happier now?"
When it was my turn to shoot next, I told them "it's not fun for me anymore" and Curtis on box snickered. I was 100% serious. I asked out loud "what are you laughing about?" He didn't answer.
These guys act like it's a big joke when you take the game seriously. But if they REALLY weren't worried, they would pretend that they wanted you to win with any legal shot you got. That doesn't happen when you are rolling well at any casino that sweats the money.
Quote: AhighI was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.
There must be more to this! What reason did they give you? You were taking too long?
I kept throwing the same way, and one of the two dice came up short again (on the seven out!) and they banned me for 24 hours (anyway).
I told Wenda that if she banned me, it wouldn't hurt my feelings and I wouldn't take it personally. More than anyone else, Wenda is the one who gets in my case about everything at Gold Coast. I enjoy it and I tell her as much.
Wenda also feeds me at TGI Fridays when I have 20x the amount of action on random shooters and myself. She just doesn't like her table dumping on other people's money when I'm focusing more on having a longer roll instead of gambling (I only had a $5 line bet with no odds when they were complaining). I obviously do more of both, but less obviously, I am a big gambler there that does black chip bet on random shots (my own and others'). Otherwise they might have banned me for more than 24 hours for all I know...(?)
This place has a six-point fire bet that pays 1000-to-1 which could factor in to things a bit as they do pay big every now and then.
Quote: AhighThis is a type of questionable roll
Indeed. It's my sneak-under-the-radar roll. A player can more easily get away with having it seem accidental.
That's not to say this is proof that I have influence (because it is absolutely not). But if you do, expect to hear about it. Whether your shot is legal or not, if they think you're influencing, you will hear about it legal shot or not.
Earlier that day, Sam at Jerry's Nugget told me "you're turning me into a believer" as I demonstrated techniques to them successfully. My bets were sufficiently small that there was no boxman watching.
But that's also confirmation "when does dice influence start" when experienced dealers are admiring what you accomplish right in front of them very deliberately and explicitly telling them everything that you're doing and they are impressed.
Quote: Ahigh
But that's also confirmation "when does dice influence start" when experienced dealers are admiring what you accomplish right in front of them very deliberately and explicitly telling them everything that you're doing and they are impressed.
Pretty much every single "experienced dealer" I have ever had at PG tiles told me (as if he were doing me a favor) that I shouldn't bank every other hand when playing alone because it would break up my lucky streaks. You should see the reaction Chinese dealers give me when I bank after the dealer gets 2-2. It's like I committed a crime against humanity.
"Experienced dealers" are among the worst when it comes to evaluating probability because they often are uneducated and have monotonous jobs such that they easily remember outliers and random events, and then mistake those for statistical evidence.
Craps dealers have routinely told players in my games that it was a "smart move" to call off their place bets for a roll after the dice went off the table. It's a smart move to ALWAYS call off place bets, since they are negative, but this advice stems from the craps dealers' belief that the 7 comes more often after the dice hit the ground, cooling them off. Textbook example of confirmation bias.
Quote: sodawaterI can guarantee you they weren't worried about you beating the game, especially for the microstakes that you play. They probably were just sick of watching your writing and setting routine and wanted to speed the game along.
Are you just trying to start an argument.
Here's the truth about the specific situation I am talking about. You don't know jack shit about it! Yet you want to comment as if you do. Great guesswork, Mr. Probably.
I wondered when this would happen?
Remember when you told us how you were being observed at Wynn after announcing yourself? Why would you announce yourself? What "advantaged player" ever announces himself?
Do you think you have finally established yourself as being a PITA to local casinos? Do you think all of those "comps" you received for $20 were nothing more than a little pat on the top of the head and a wish that you would just go away and leave the game for the big boys to play? (Nah... that's too cruel. Maybe you really did earn the $20 comps with your little action.)
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh, so it finally happened. A crew got fed up with you, is that what you're saying?
I wondered when this would happen?
Remember when you told us how you were being observed at Wynn after announcing yourself? Why would you announce yourself? What "advantaged player" ever announces himself?
Do you think you have finally established yourself as being a PITA to local casinos? Do you think all of those "comps" you received for $20 were nothing more than a little pat on the top of the head and a wish that you would just go away and leave the game for the big boys to play? (Nah... that's too cruel. Maybe you really did earn the $20 comps with your little action.)
I definitely don't get the attention you get at the casino, Alan. It must be nice to be you! Congratulations! But trust me, I'm not looking up to you as a role model.
Just so you know, I just motorboated my face into my woman's boobs. She loved it!
PITA. I had to look that up. When did you learn about that acronym?
The crew at the Gold Coast STILL absolutely love me. They were just doing their job.
Are you a marked man? Please, let us know.
Quote: Ahigh
Just so you know, I just motorboated my face into my woman's boobs. She loved it!
One thing's for sure, she appreciated a break from dishwashing duty.
Quote: Ahigh
The crew at the Gold Coast STILL absolutely love me. They were just doing their job.
they love you and they banned you for 24 hours? Okay.
Quote: AlanMendelsonCome on Ahigh, I'm serious here. Do you think the casinos have now marked you as a problem? You announce that you are doing your research. You even call the WYNN in advance and announce what you will be doing. You discuss bias and setting and your superior shooting with the table crews. They start writing you comps seemingly to get you away from the table. Now a casino talks about banning you!
Are you a marked man? Please, let us know.
The response wasn't about me. It was about how to tell when influence starts. The topic of the thread. This is one way to tell. If you want to talk about the possibility of me being a marked man, that's maybe another subject for another thread. But short answer: "ABSOLUTELY NOT!" Everywhere I go my play is welcome and everywhere I go they absolutely love me.
Yesterday was an exception, not the rule. Again, I await TeddyS's unbiased opinion. Maybe he will add his two cents.
When they gave me troubles at LVH, they didn't like HOW I was throwing the dice (IE: consistently and a little more slowly) more than anything else. I still shoot very fast. Look at the you tube video for the Wizard's Challenge on the Ahigh show. That's how fast I shoot. They were picking nits because about all I hit were 6 and 8 and I turned $25 into $150 in just a few rolls and then neutralized my come bets. It was after I neutralized my come bets that they complained about the pace, and it probably had more to do with me knowing how to win without taking huge risks that they didn't like.
If I bet $180 across to win $125 in 8 throws, it would have been no big whoop.
They don't like big percentage wins real quick unless you are exposed properly. I was parlaying come bets with no odds. They didn't like how I shot and they didn't like how I bet.
But each place is different. As it relates to the thread though, both these instances were feedback of what one would expect when you are influencing the dice. And to be clear again, I'm not saying this is confirmation, just what you should EXPECT if you are able to accomplish it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonthey love you and they banned you for 24 hours? Okay.
What part did you not understand? But yes. They love me, AND they banned me for 24 hours. That is right. You got it. A-OK.
Wenda is her name. She works for the Gold Coast. Go and ask her and confirm. But both statement I believe are 100% accurate.
None of this was personal in the slightest. She apologized for having to do it. I told her before she did it that I wouldn't take it personally and I did not.
Teddy was witness to the entire event. I'm pretty sure he will tell you the same thing.
And let us go back to the topic of the thread. This isn't about me, this is about what to expect when you have influence. What it's like when you are being successful at influencing the dice. No matter what the dollar amount is, they are going to take notice whether it's a short roll or not. Influence is influence, and you can expect some attention for it.
I have two short rolls for a hard 8 on video on the Ahigh show. Those were influenced short rolls from the perspective of any casino in Vegas that I know of. I'm pretty sure that any casino would take the dice away from you if you took $10 to $1000 in those two throws. Even a nice place like the Wynn. That is influence even from the view of the casino. But they would pay you, they just wouldn't be happy about it (unless you were still losing and they weren't sweating it maybe.)
Start watching at 14:15 on this link:
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/29765719
There two short hard-eight back-to-back there. Those are rolls that any casino would not generally allow to continue no matter who was shooting and how much evidence of control there was.
But you can get paid from that kind of bias. And it will put a target on your back if you make enough money doing it.
I don't do this. But that's the sort of thing that would qualify as "when does influence start." It's just that it's not tolerated at all.
Quote: TheWolf713Exactly....
Each roll is independent so a DI's mindset would be something like this...
Maybe, I'm not a DI. But either every roll is influenced, or it's not.
It may be some rolls have 0 actual influence, and some are influenced. It doesn't matter, you can only look at all the data to make any statement about the influence that could have happened. Pick and Choose is a terrible way to make any assesment (confirmation bias, say).
Quote: AhighWhat part did you not understand? But yes. They love me, AND they banned me for 24 hours.
Ahhh... I got it now. Tough love.
Quote: thecesspitMaybe, I'm not a DI. But either every roll is influenced, or it's not.
It may be some rolls have 0 actual influence, and some are influenced. It doesn't matter, you can only look at all the data to make any statement about the influence that could have happened. Pick and Choose is a terrible way to make any assesment (confirmation bias, say).
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. But just to understand my perspective: I attempt to achieve better results on each roll. Some rolls I fail. My failed rolls are random. Even if they are not 100% random, I expect them to be.
If you're saying that random rolling one or more times means every roll is random, that doesn't make sense to me.
More than HALF of my rolls are more than likely 100% random in what I expect from them. When I fail to accomplish my goals in my shot, that is what I consider a random roll. I fail a lot. *I* would be happy to have a two digit percentage of my rolls not be 100% random. But for those specific rolls, I hope to achieve the least amount of randomness possible.
Having random rolls mixed in with controlled throws and having them look exactly the same to the untrained eye is a huge benefit.
You want to look random, and I have had no problems with people saying my shots look random. I think comments on this forum are clear evidence of that!
You CAN'T pick and choose which are influence when deciding if the dice are influenced at all, as that adds confirmation bias and data mining. If 90% of your rolls are random, and 10% have a (say) a 10% less chance of rolling a 7, you are still influencing the dice (with an overall 1% less chance of rolling a 7). Observing that data, you ignore what the DI says is a 'good' roll or 'bad' roll, and just take the data set as the complete data set.
I'm saying DI doesn't start at some point in the roll. Either you are doing it, or you aren't.
(Caveat, I guess if you said -right, from this roll, I am DI-ing, then fine).
Quote: thecesspitI'm saying if 90% of your rolls are "random" and 10% are "influenced", you have to take all the rolls if you are claiming to "influence the dice".
You CAN'T pick and choose which are influence when deciding if the dice are influenced at all, as that adds confirmation bias and data mining. If 90% of your rolls are random, and 10% have a (say) a 10% less chance of rolling a 7, you are still influencing the dice (with an overall 1% less chance of rolling a 7). Observing that data, you ignore what the DI says is a 'good' roll or 'bad' roll, and just take the data set as the complete data set.
I'm saying DI doesn't start at some point in the roll. Either you are doing it, or you aren't.
(Caveat, I guess if you said -right, from this roll, I am DI-ing, then fine).
I guess that's a valid perspective, and frankly I don't know for sure or not if it's valid.
But go up and look at that Ustream video and tell me I had a ton of sevens, but two of those short rolls that were both hard eights back to back (the heaviest outcome from my theoretically biased throw) and tell me that there's not more influence on those two rolls than the other rolls in that video.
I generally disagree. I like to bet with zero to no wagers most of my rolls and light it up when I am feeling confident.
Consider it like doing counts and betting when the cards favor you.
I bet bigger when I am ready and feeling good. Sometimes I still get bitch slapped and that's to be expected.
But hopefully I have a better chance of getting what I want when I am having better results delivering the dice the way that I am feeling confident about.
And don't take this as a claim of what I can do, just a mental model for how I think about it.
I understand what you're saying, and effectively your position is that I should always flat bet and seek out the grind and make money from minimum edges and maximum flat bets over the long haul.
I find that boring. I disagree with this perspective on "how to do things" with the Wizard and many other people who think that "if you can have an SRR of X, just bet more odds bets and win."
Very interesting simplification of things, but not the way I think about things myself.
In summary, I don't know if you're wrong, but I disagree with your mental model for how a person who is attempting control should approach bets.
IE: I believe my ability to influence the dice is MUCH MUCH MUCH stronger on some rolls and is COMPLETELY ABSENT on others -- and certainly when considering known influenced rolls such as short rolls shown in the video above. Legal influenced throws are not even known to be possible, so let's just talk about the shorties. I bet accordingly and I think other smart players who are attempting to influence the dice should do the same. ABSOLUTELY! Regardless of what the Wizard and others say on this forum, I think they're wrong about long-hauling it and always betting and trying. Confidence goes up and down and bets should follow!!!
A good pit manager will tell you that if they are losing money, they will start sniffing for any short rolls that are pulling money. Short rolls are known exploits!
Quote: thecesspitI'm saying if 90% of your rolls are "random" and 10% are "influenced", you have to take all the rolls if you are claiming to "influence the dice".
You CAN'T pick and choose which are influence when deciding if the dice are influenced at all, as that adds confirmation bias and data mining. If 90% of your rolls are random, and 10% have a (say) a 10% less chance of rolling a 7, you are still influencing the dice (with an overall 1% less chance of rolling a 7). Observing that data, you ignore what the DI says is a 'good' roll or 'bad' roll, and just take the data set as the complete data set.
I'm saying DI doesn't start at some point in the roll. Either you are doing it, or you aren't.
(Caveat, I guess if you said -right, from this roll, I am DI-ing, then fine).
I'll have to disagree with you here, cess. Aaron sets out to roll, and he would say his goal is to avoid hitting the pyramids. He knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random. But he thinks if he avoids the pyramids he is exerting some control. So if he can avoid the pyramids 40% of the time, then he is exerting influence 40% of the time, and being random 60% of the time. So, if you believe that the roll, when not hitting a pyramid, is one that will have a lower chance of a 7, then he is attempting to influence the dice on each roll, but only 40% of the time is he skilled enough to do so. I of course don not believe that even when his dice bounce off of the table and hit the back wall above the pyramids the results are anything but random, but you can understand his assertion that there is a difference between him making a 'good' roll (not hitting pyramid) and a bad roll (hitting pyramid),
Quote: TheWolf713How many times have you seen a person go through a 30 second dice ritual and 7 out before your drink order comes back?
A shooter with a "30 second ritual" is definitely not a dice influencer. Most skilled DIs can easily and comfortably shoot within five seconds of receiving the dice.
Quote: TheWolf713When does Dice influence Actually start during a roll? And exactly When does it end?
That's like asking when does arrow influence start during an archer's turn in an archery tournament.
The DI is trying to influence every toss, just like the archer is trying to influence every shot. Some tosses/shots end up being better than others.
Quote: TheWolf713What's the difference between a 'influenced' 6 or 8 and a random 6 & 8?
Huh? One roll results from skill and the other roll results from luck. However, it's usually impossible to determine the degree of influence on a single toss.
Dice influencing is much more of a cumulative, statistical game. One can gain an edge by avoiding just one seven in, say, fifty rolls.
Quote: TheWolf713Do you count only one of them?
All of the tosses are "counted," just like all of the archer's shots are counted.
Quote: TheWolf713Does increasing the amount of sevens thrown count as influence too?
If the increase is statistically consistent, you betcha. Sevens are often what DIs try to shoot during the comeout roll.
A good pit manager will tell you that if they are losing money, they will start sniffing for any short rolls that are pulling money. Short rolls are known exploits!
You are a walking contradiction [KK,JC]
It's a common belief that the house rules want the dice to hit the deck, back wall and the deck. We all know it. Their general good nature let's shooter's get away with minor differences, sometimes. You go on incessantly about fair. If it is your intention to profit from short rolling, that Ahigh is cheating. Yep, that's what it is. Many casino's don't mind a guy with a smooth throw that might be winning, some.
When you go up for your buy in and announcing about your ap, blog, etc. and get them stirred up. [again like the kid putting the stick in the hornet's nest], do you happen to mention you plan to cheat them? That'll probably really get "em going.
It will also help create a hostile atmosphere for everyone else.
Good job Ahigh, anger, hostility, chaos. Your work is done. Oh, and you've also garnered yourself quite a bit of attention.
Quote: SOOPOOHe knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random.
I am not sure if anyone "knows" this.
I think that most of us agree that the pyramids can make a toss more chaotic, but there is probably some disagreement on the belief that the pyramids make the results "totally random."
Consider the extreme hypothetical scenario in which a die always hits a pyramid in the exact same spot with the exact same orientation, trajectory and force. The results of such a hypothetical run should be fairly consistent and decidedly not "totally random."
Now, if we begin to change-up one of the variables (say, the trajectory), then we start getting less consistent results, but the results would likely not be random. We would probably still see some pattern in the results.
If we additionally change-up another variable (say, the force), would we then be "totally random?" Maybe, maybe not. I would doubt it, but the only way to know for sure is with real life trials. Same thing if we change-up a third variable.
Also, keep in mind that a die can hit the bottom side of the bottom row of pyramids, after losing most of its force from landing on the felt just 1 inch below. So, the chaotic effect of the pyramids is lessened with such a trajectory.
Furthermore, it is interesting to note that casinos generally do not think that it is enough for the dice to just hit the back wall -- the shooter must also be a given distance from the wall. I experienced this requirement two weeks ago at Club Fortune, when they had their "bump" installed. A bump is a removable wall (with pyramids) that is installed near the middle of a craps table, which allows for a single dealer.
I was standing next to the stickman position (now vacant). The solitary dealer across from me was new, and was about to let me shoot. I said, "From here? I can reach over and touch the bump!" He said, "Hold on a second, and let me ask." The pit manager came over and told me that, to shoot, I would have to move away from the bump, at least to the table's corner. I asked if such a requirement was to prevent dice influencing, and he answered, "Yes." I asked the same question of the two dealers who later removed the bump, and they gave the same answer.
Likewise, casinos operating short crapshooter tables and tubs have a counter-measure to thwart DIs -- the shooter is not allowed to set the dice.
So, casinos believe that just hitting the wall is not "random" enough. Casinos think that the possibility of dice influencing is matter of degree, pertaining to throw distance. Such "matter of degree" character would seem to negate the stance that dice influencing is absolutely impossible.
By the way, I hope to soon have a video posted of the Club Fortune bump. The Fortune is a nice, friendly locals operation, with $1 craps minimum (but no breakage on the dollar). The bump is removed daily around 4pm.
Quote: SOOPOOI'll have to disagree with you here, cess. Aaron sets out to roll, and he would say his goal is to avoid hitting the pyramids. He knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random. But he thinks if he avoids the pyramids he is exerting some control. So if he can avoid the pyramids 40% of the time, then he is exerting influence 40% of the time, and being random 60% of the time. So, if you believe that the roll, when not hitting a pyramid, is one that will have a lower chance of a 7, then he is attempting to influence the dice on each roll, but only 40% of the time is he skilled enough to do so. I of course don not believe that even when his dice bounce off of the table and hit the back wall above the pyramids the results are anything but random, but you can understand his assertion that there is a difference between him making a 'good' roll (not hitting pyramid) and a bad roll (hitting pyramid),
But you have to bet before you know whether your next roll will miss the pyramids. If you believe you can miss 40% of the time overall and, as a result, you have a player advantage of X%, you should make all your bets based on that theory (e.g., X% of bankroll every throw). Not based on the idea that you can tell *before* you throw whether your next roll will be a good one. If you know what your roll is going to do with that level of certainty, you should bet (or not bet) accordingly.
Quote: AhighOne time when dice influencing starts is when you get banned from shooting.
This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.
TeddyS was with me. But I was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.
I was getting heat yesterday more than usual. I think it's just because Teddy is so suspicious looking though. Normally I am just laughing it up and there are no worries. But they were criticizing my shot all day at half the places I went to play.
At LVH all my shots were 100% fine, and they criticized me for taking too long. When they did that I sent the dice back to the center and asked the stick Michael, the hispanic stick man who looked like Cheech Marin, "what?" IE: I took more time to have him clarify the "rule" that I have to shoot more quickly.
I told him "I don't know of any rule that I have to play at a certain speed!" It began to turn into an argument, and I quickly sevened out and asked, "are you happier now?"
When it was my turn to shoot next, I told them "it's not fun for me anymore" and Curtis on box snickered. I was 100% serious. I asked out loud "what are you laughing about?" He didn't answer.
These guys act like it's a big joke when you take the game seriously. But if they REALLY weren't worried, they would pretend that they wanted you to win with any legal shot you got. That doesn't happen when you are rolling well at any casino that sweats the money.
Ahigh,
With all due respect, that are not worried about your shot. You take too long and are slowing the game down. I would not allow you to do that at any game and they probably won't either. Casino's make money by owning a small advantage on each game. To pay the bills they need the dice rolling, the cards being dealt, the ball spinning, etc. It takes an average shooter less than 10 seconds to grab the dice and throw them. If you are writing and taking 30 seconds, that's too long. Same as if you were taking 30 seconds to decide to hit/stay in blackjack at the Casino I work at. I'd ask you to leave. It's that simple.
ZCore13
Quote: AhighOne time when dice influencing starts is when you get banned from shooting.
This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.
.
Isn't the Gold Coast one of the places you told us
that you explained to the pit exactly what you were
doing and why, a few weeks ago? Did you think
they would forget?
Quote: Ahigh
The crew at the Gold Coast STILL absolutely love me. .
They love you because they have your number. They
know you're somebody who fancies himself a dice
manipulator and you amuse them. They let you do
what you do until you either bother them by winning,
or bother them with slow play. Then they get rid of
you for awhile. Its really that simple.
Never think they respect you or they're your friends.
To them you're just another oddball character who thinks
he can get one over on their casino.
While walking through the casino yesterday, I stopped by the craps table to see what all the fuss was about. The dealer said it was ok if I just wanted to watch. I stood back a little bit and watched the action. There was lots of fun and the guy next to me was making a killing. After 10 or 15 minutes, I got bored and decided to walk away. The guy playing next to me stopped me and said he was down to $40 when I showed up and now he has over $400. He wanted me to stay standing in the same place because he was supersticious. He said he would make it worth my time. I had no where to be so I just stood there and continued to sip my beer. A few rolls later the shooter 7'd out. This guy, who was very nice and gave me a mini craps lesson, turns to thank me and gives me 4 red chips (Score! paid my bus for the weekend).
Quote: EvenBobThey love you because they have your number. They
know you're somebody who fancies himself a dice
manipulator and you amuse them. They let you do
what you do until you either bother them by winning,
or bother them with slow play. Then they get rid of
you for awhile. Its really that simple.
Never think they respect you or they're your friends.
To them you're just another oddball character who thinks
he can get one over on their casino.
This is more true than you think. I love "counters" and "AP" players and would love dice influencers and manipulators just as much. If I had a craps table I would have a comp room waiting for Harley and Ahigh. For every one decent "professional gambler" there are hundreds of thousands that put a smile on my face. I have one guy that comes in almost every day. He buys in for $100 and get's $20 in white chips. he then holds the white chips in his hand under the table and adjusts them back and forth based on whatever count he is using. Almost every day he leaves with little or nothing. The fun part is watching him try and be sneaky about it and him thinking he's pulling a fast one.
ZCore13
Very few of them ever leave the table, and
every one of them has been found.
Quote: RogerKintFor some reason I don't have this craps thread blocked yet. Before I do, I'll share a story about how to beat the game of craps.
While walking through the casino yesterday, I stopped by the craps table to see what all the fuss was about. The dealer said it was ok if I just wanted to watch. I stood back a little bit and watched the action. There was lots of fun and the guy next to me was making a killing. After 10 or 15 minutes, I got bored and decided to walk away. The guy playing next to me stopped me and said he was down to $40 when I showed up and now he has over $400. He wanted me to stay standing in the same place because he was supersticious. He said he would make it worth my time. I had no where to be so I just stood there and continued to sip my beer. A few rolls later the shooter 7'd out. This guy, who was very nice and gave me a mini craps lesson, turns to thank me and gives me 4 red chips (Score! paid my bus for the weekend).
this works even better if youre an attractive woman. many of my female friends have been tipped green chips just for standing at a crap table
Quote: Zcore13This is more true than you think. I love "counters" and "AP" players and would love dice influencers and manipulators just as much. If I had a craps table I would have a comp room waiting for Harley and Ahigh. For every one decent "professional gambler" there are hundreds of thousands that put a smile on my face. I have one guy that comes in almost every day. He buys in for $100 and get's $20 in white chips. he then holds the white chips in his hand under the table and adjusts them back and forth based on whatever count he is using. Almost every day he leaves with little or nothing. The fun part is watching him try and be sneaky about it and him thinking he's pulling a fast one.
ZCore13
that is hilarious... the guy can't remember a number between 0 and 20 in his head? if you can't remember a 2-digit number, you are not ready for the world of advantage casino play
Quote: Zcore13This is more true than you think. I love "counters" and "AP" players and would love dice influencers and manipulators just as much. If I had a craps table I would have a comp room waiting for Harley and Ahigh. For every one decent "professional gambler" there are hundreds of thousands that put a smile on my face. I have one guy that comes in almost every day. He buys in for $100 and get's $20 in white chips. he then holds the white chips in his hand under the table and adjusts them back and forth based on whatever count he is using. Almost every day he leaves with little or nothing. The fun part is watching him try and be sneaky about it and him thinking he's pulling a fast one.
That's funny,
You thought I was trying to count cards,
I was only trying to count up my hand.
Quote:But go up and look at that Ustream video and tell me I had a ton of sevens, but two of those short rolls that were both hard eights back to back (the heaviest outcome from my theoretically biased throw) and tell me that there's not more influence on those two rolls than the other rolls in that video.
But thats what I am saying. There may be throws with 'more' influence than others, but you can't choose them after the fact as evidence. You can include in your models that you know X% of the time you get some influence and Y% it's random. As I assume you are trying to influence every throw.
It's not about betting patterns, or if you should grind or not. Jus answering the question 'when does influence start', and saying you can't pick and choose after the throw.
ME explained it better than me, but he tends to anyways.
Quote: AhighI'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. But just to understand my perspective: I attempt to achieve better results on each roll. Some rolls I fail. My failed rolls are random.
I think this comes down to linguistics... and a choice of words. Here's what I get from Ahigh:
1. He tries to make a good roll to get better results with each roll.
2. Some rolls do get the results he wants.
3. Some rolls do not get the results he wants.
4. With each roll he is trying to influence the dice.
5. Sometimes the influence works, and sometimes it doesn't.
I see nothing wrong with that because it's what everyone does whether or not they set the dice, throw the dice a certain way, or just heave them. We all have the same goals when we throw the dice -- to have them show the number that will help us. After all, that is the point of the game.
Quote: tuppA shooter with a "30 second ritual" is definitely not a dice influencer. Most skilled DIs can easily and comfortably shoot within five seconds of receiving the dice.
I think you're being harsh here. Whether or not it takes someone 30 seconds... or five seconds... or two seconds (which is more than it takes me) to set the dice is not any kind of measure at all of dice influencing. Speed for setting dice comes with practice. And that speed has no bearing on any other factor of dice influencing including the grip and toss, etc.
In my case as the dice are being pushed to me I immediately can see how to change the faces to make my set. Sometimes, however, I will take a few breaths because I don't want to feel pressured to throw too quickly.
When I had five fire bet numbers at Caesars a couple months back, the crew was very patient with me while I stood at the table, taking deep breaths even before I picked up the dice. I was the only player at the table with a fire bet -- $10 --- and a player at the other end of the table asked his base dealer "why is he taking so long?"
The stickman said "he has five points...." etc. They let me take my time. The next come out roll was a repeat number, but they also didn't rush me on successive rolls. Maybe it helped that I announced that if I made the sixth point the dealers would get a thousand bucks.
Many random throwers go through a long ritual before the roll.
In terms of influence, it has to be math, you have to have good enough records to indicate you have some influence. Without
records over time, you cant possibly say you influence anything.
Todays practice is an example..
3-5 3-6 5-12 6-1
4-2 4-1 6-6 2-2
2-4 1-2 4-3 2-1
6-6 2-6 6-4 4-3
3-1 4-1 6-2 3-1
1-1 5-4 4-2 4-6
3-6 3-3 5-1 3-1
3-2 2-3 2-4 5-4
3-5 5-3 2-3 2-3
6-5 6-2 4-3 5-4
now this set i had 22 rolls before a 7 , thats good, but in truth this set shows no influence over the dice at all,
there is 27.5% 6 & 8 which is average and 45% on axis which is average . I had 4 7's and only 1 6-1 which is
good. But results like these over time show no influence thank goodness this is not the typical session.
You need to be honest with your records... or your kidding yourself
dicesitter
