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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:46:22 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I'm saying if 90% of your rolls are "random" and 10% are "influenced", you have to take all the rolls if you are claiming to "influence the dice".

You CAN'T pick and choose which are influence when deciding if the dice are influenced at all, as that adds confirmation bias and data mining. If 90% of your rolls are random, and 10% have a (say) a 10% less chance of rolling a 7, you are still influencing the dice (with an overall 1% less chance of rolling a 7). Observing that data, you ignore what the DI says is a 'good' roll or 'bad' roll, and just take the data set as the complete data set.

I'm saying DI doesn't start at some point in the roll. Either you are doing it, or you aren't.

(Caveat, I guess if you said -right, from this roll, I am DI-ing, then fine).



I'll have to disagree with you here, cess. Aaron sets out to roll, and he would say his goal is to avoid hitting the pyramids. He knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random. But he thinks if he avoids the pyramids he is exerting some control. So if he can avoid the pyramids 40% of the time, then he is exerting influence 40% of the time, and being random 60% of the time. So, if you believe that the roll, when not hitting a pyramid, is one that will have a lower chance of a 7, then he is attempting to influence the dice on each roll, but only 40% of the time is he skilled enough to do so. I of course don not believe that even when his dice bounce off of the table and hit the back wall above the pyramids the results are anything but random, but you can understand his assertion that there is a difference between him making a 'good' roll (not hitting pyramid) and a bad roll (hitting pyramid),
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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March 17th, 2013 at 11:15:50 AM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

How many times have you seen a person go through a 30 second dice ritual and 7 out before your drink order comes back?


A shooter with a "30 second ritual" is definitely not a dice influencer. Most skilled DIs can easily and comfortably shoot within five seconds of receiving the dice.


Quote: TheWolf713

When does Dice influence Actually start during a roll? And exactly When does it end?


That's like asking when does arrow influence start during an archer's turn in an archery tournament.

The DI is trying to influence every toss, just like the archer is trying to influence every shot. Some tosses/shots end up being better than others.


Quote: TheWolf713

What's the difference between a 'influenced' 6 or 8 and a random 6 & 8?


Huh? One roll results from skill and the other roll results from luck. However, it's usually impossible to determine the degree of influence on a single toss.

Dice influencing is much more of a cumulative, statistical game. One can gain an edge by avoiding just one seven in, say, fifty rolls.


Quote: TheWolf713

Do you count only one of them?


All of the tosses are "counted," just like all of the archer's shots are counted.


Quote: TheWolf713

Does increasing the amount of sevens thrown count as influence too?


If the increase is statistically consistent, you betcha. Sevens are often what DIs try to shoot during the comeout roll.
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:39:54 PM permalink
Legal influenced throws are not even known to be possible, so let's just talk about the shorties. I bet accordingly and I think other smart players who are attempting to influence the dice should do the same. ABSOLUTELY! Regardless of what the Wizard and others say on this forum, I think they're wrong about long-hauling it and always betting and trying. Confidence goes up and down and bets should follow!!!

A good pit manager will tell you that if they are losing money, they will start sniffing for any short rolls that are pulling money. Short rolls are known exploits!



You are a walking contradiction [KK,JC]
It's a common belief that the house rules want the dice to hit the deck, back wall and the deck. We all know it. Their general good nature let's shooter's get away with minor differences, sometimes. You go on incessantly about fair. If it is your intention to profit from short rolling, that Ahigh is cheating. Yep, that's what it is. Many casino's don't mind a guy with a smooth throw that might be winning, some.
When you go up for your buy in and announcing about your ap, blog, etc. and get them stirred up. [again like the kid putting the stick in the hornet's nest], do you happen to mention you plan to cheat them? That'll probably really get "em going.
It will also help create a hostile atmosphere for everyone else.
Good job Ahigh, anger, hostility, chaos. Your work is done. Oh, and you've also garnered yourself quite a bit of attention.
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:47:16 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

He knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random.


I am not sure if anyone "knows" this.

I think that most of us agree that the pyramids can make a toss more chaotic, but there is probably some disagreement on the belief that the pyramids make the results "totally random."

Consider the extreme hypothetical scenario in which a die always hits a pyramid in the exact same spot with the exact same orientation, trajectory and force. The results of such a hypothetical run should be fairly consistent and decidedly not "totally random."

Now, if we begin to change-up one of the variables (say, the trajectory), then we start getting less consistent results, but the results would likely not be random. We would probably still see some pattern in the results.

If we additionally change-up another variable (say, the force), would we then be "totally random?" Maybe, maybe not. I would doubt it, but the only way to know for sure is with real life trials. Same thing if we change-up a third variable.

Also, keep in mind that a die can hit the bottom side of the bottom row of pyramids, after losing most of its force from landing on the felt just 1 inch below. So, the chaotic effect of the pyramids is lessened with such a trajectory.

Furthermore, it is interesting to note that casinos generally do not think that it is enough for the dice to just hit the back wall -- the shooter must also be a given distance from the wall. I experienced this requirement two weeks ago at Club Fortune, when they had their "bump" installed. A bump is a removable wall (with pyramids) that is installed near the middle of a craps table, which allows for a single dealer.

I was standing next to the stickman position (now vacant). The solitary dealer across from me was new, and was about to let me shoot. I said, "From here? I can reach over and touch the bump!" He said, "Hold on a second, and let me ask." The pit manager came over and told me that, to shoot, I would have to move away from the bump, at least to the table's corner. I asked if such a requirement was to prevent dice influencing, and he answered, "Yes." I asked the same question of the two dealers who later removed the bump, and they gave the same answer.

Likewise, casinos operating short crapshooter tables and tubs have a counter-measure to thwart DIs -- the shooter is not allowed to set the dice.

So, casinos believe that just hitting the wall is not "random" enough. Casinos think that the possibility of dice influencing is matter of degree, pertaining to throw distance. Such "matter of degree" character would seem to negate the stance that dice influencing is absolutely impossible.

By the way, I hope to soon have a video posted of the Club Fortune bump. The Fortune is a nice, friendly locals operation, with $1 craps minimum (but no breakage on the dollar). The bump is removed daily around 4pm.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:57:12 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'll have to disagree with you here, cess. Aaron sets out to roll, and he would say his goal is to avoid hitting the pyramids. He knows if it hits the pyramids that his results are totally random. But he thinks if he avoids the pyramids he is exerting some control. So if he can avoid the pyramids 40% of the time, then he is exerting influence 40% of the time, and being random 60% of the time. So, if you believe that the roll, when not hitting a pyramid, is one that will have a lower chance of a 7, then he is attempting to influence the dice on each roll, but only 40% of the time is he skilled enough to do so. I of course don not believe that even when his dice bounce off of the table and hit the back wall above the pyramids the results are anything but random, but you can understand his assertion that there is a difference between him making a 'good' roll (not hitting pyramid) and a bad roll (hitting pyramid),


But you have to bet before you know whether your next roll will miss the pyramids. If you believe you can miss 40% of the time overall and, as a result, you have a player advantage of X%, you should make all your bets based on that theory (e.g., X% of bankroll every throw). Not based on the idea that you can tell *before* you throw whether your next roll will be a good one. If you know what your roll is going to do with that level of certainty, you should bet (or not bet) accordingly.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 17th, 2013 at 12:57:37 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

One time when dice influencing starts is when you get banned from shooting.

This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.

TeddyS was with me. But I was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.

I was getting heat yesterday more than usual. I think it's just because Teddy is so suspicious looking though. Normally I am just laughing it up and there are no worries. But they were criticizing my shot all day at half the places I went to play.

At LVH all my shots were 100% fine, and they criticized me for taking too long. When they did that I sent the dice back to the center and asked the stick Michael, the hispanic stick man who looked like Cheech Marin, "what?" IE: I took more time to have him clarify the "rule" that I have to shoot more quickly.

I told him "I don't know of any rule that I have to play at a certain speed!" It began to turn into an argument, and I quickly sevened out and asked, "are you happier now?"

When it was my turn to shoot next, I told them "it's not fun for me anymore" and Curtis on box snickered. I was 100% serious. I asked out loud "what are you laughing about?" He didn't answer.

These guys act like it's a big joke when you take the game seriously. But if they REALLY weren't worried, they would pretend that they wanted you to win with any legal shot you got. That doesn't happen when you are rolling well at any casino that sweats the money.



Ahigh,

With all due respect, that are not worried about your shot. You take too long and are slowing the game down. I would not allow you to do that at any game and they probably won't either. Casino's make money by owning a small advantage on each game. To pay the bills they need the dice rolling, the cards being dealt, the ball spinning, etc. It takes an average shooter less than 10 seconds to grab the dice and throw them. If you are writing and taking 30 seconds, that's too long. Same as if you were taking 30 seconds to decide to hit/stay in blackjack at the Casino I work at. I'd ask you to leave. It's that simple.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:01:47 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:05:36 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

One time when dice influencing starts is when you get banned from shooting.
This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.
.



Isn't the Gold Coast one of the places you told us
that you explained to the pit exactly what you were
doing and why, a few weeks ago? Did you think
they would forget?
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:16:23 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



The crew at the Gold Coast STILL absolutely love me. .



They love you because they have your number. They
know you're somebody who fancies himself a dice
manipulator and you amuse them. They let you do
what you do until you either bother them by winning,
or bother them with slow play. Then they get rid of
you for awhile. Its really that simple.

Never think they respect you or they're your friends.
To them you're just another oddball character who thinks
he can get one over on their casino.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
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March 17th, 2013 at 1:19:17 PM permalink
For some reason I don't have this craps thread blocked yet. Before I do, I'll share a story about how to beat the game of craps.

While walking through the casino yesterday, I stopped by the craps table to see what all the fuss was about. The dealer said it was ok if I just wanted to watch. I stood back a little bit and watched the action. There was lots of fun and the guy next to me was making a killing. After 10 or 15 minutes, I got bored and decided to walk away. The guy playing next to me stopped me and said he was down to $40 when I showed up and now he has over $400. He wanted me to stay standing in the same place because he was supersticious. He said he would make it worth my time. I had no where to be so I just stood there and continued to sip my beer. A few rolls later the shooter 7'd out. This guy, who was very nice and gave me a mini craps lesson, turns to thank me and gives me 4 red chips (Score! paid my bus for the weekend).
100% risk of ruin

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