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tupp
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March 27th, 2013 at 11:55:03 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Alan has some very good points.
[snip]
Many random throwers go through a long ritual before the roll.


Actually, if you reread the exchange, that was my point, not Alan's.

No DI will take 30 seconds to shoot (unless some event/problem prevents him/her from shooting right away). The misconception that DIs delay the game is common with those who know very little of craps, but refuse to believe in the possibility of dice influencing. Such a notion is a dead give-away to one's ignorance of the game. It's the finger-snapping, random shooters who perpetrate the "30-second ritual."


Quote: dicesitter

In terms of influence, it has to be math, you have to have good enough records to indicate you have some influence. Without records over time, you cant possibly say you influence anything.


Another point that I (and others) have made, with which Alan might disagree. Alan's past posts seem to denounce the recording throws as useless -- "the records wouldn't hold up in court."
tupp
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March 27th, 2013 at 11:55:30 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Only one "6-1."


What is your point?
thecesspit
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March 28th, 2013 at 2:14:02 AM permalink
Especially as in a forty roll span, expectation is one 6-1 and one 1-6.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AlanMendelson
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March 28th, 2013 at 2:50:13 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

Another point that I (and others) have made, with which Alan might disagree. Alan's past posts seem to denounce the recording throws as useless -- "the records wouldn't hold up in court."



Let's clarify this: what are the records of the dice throws suppose to show?

Do they show the dice are biased? In that context no, and I believe that's when I made that comment, during that discussion.

Do they show the shooter held a record for consecutive hard-6s? Sure, a record of the throws at a table would do that.

Do they show the shooter had a hand that lasted four and a half hours? Of course records would show that.

Do they show the shooter is a dice influencer or a dice controller? How would records of a shooter at a table show that or prove that? I say that because even random rollers can have long hands and can make multiple passes. And this brings me back to my original statement: if you want to say that Henry XXX is a controlled shooter, have him demonstrate "controlled shots." I have offered some parameters for "controlled shots." And I am wiling to consider other suggestions for how to define a "controlled shot."

But I cannot consider a shot that bounces wildly -- even if it ends up with a desired result -- as a controlled shot UNLESS the shooter can duplicate that wild bouncing and the desired result.

That's my position. Sorry, but I stick with it.
Zcore13
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March 28th, 2013 at 7:18:00 AM permalink
Don't be sorry Alan. That's the position of any sane person.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
dicesitter
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March 28th, 2013 at 7:38:12 AM permalink
Alan


I guess to be honest the question is no longer whether a person can influence the dice
or they cant is why you assume it is not possible.

Smart craps for instance is a well designed tool, would you assume your opinion is a better indicator of
influence????

Would you assume that when a person has his or her records which over thousands of rolls show
a certain advantage is lying??

Now i understand and have seen for years the attacks on the guys that write books or provide
vidoes etc... if their is a profit in it, they must be lying to obtain that profit.. i get that, i also think
it is a very sick way to think. I also also paid for golf lessons and did not get any better, i have hired
a stock broker and lost money....

I would understand completely if you took the classes and did the practice and recorded the numbers
and it did not work for you... but even then.... it did not work for you, !!!!!

I have been involved with dice control now for 6 years... 3.5 years of classes and practice. My shot is
not nearly as controlled as a number of people i have played with...but i am getting there.

I am also 100% honest and i agree with you, you cant say a roll that runs all over the table and gets a
good number is dice control.... its not , i have had a number of long rolls where that has happened, i dont
go home and say wow i have control... i go home and say what the hell was that!!!!

6-1 is an example.... now i understand you will either beleive me or you wont,,that is up to you... but
when i release my dice properly.. that means even, and they hit and go to the back wall i dont get
hardly any 1/6 or 6/1 , far less than 33% which is what normal would be. If my thow is not even
, but that i mean the dice hit the table with a low right or low left bias, and scoot to the side, i get lots
of 1/6/6-1 for greater than 33% because the dice are leaving the forward access and going over side ways.
Ahigh could prove that easily.

The guys i play with that are not dice controllers, one is 73 and the other is 66 tell me that all the time
and they would tell you.... when my dice are correct i wont get a 6-1....

Alan, this dice control stuff is not a pot of gold, this is hard work, and the edge you get is not much, for me it
is 1 6 or 8 more out of 10 rolls....you would hardly notice that, but if you are $30 better on the 6 and 8 that is
$35 . My goal for this when i started was not to make money, i am retired and lucky enough to have a good life
but i have seen people mess it up gambling.... so if there was a way to get good enough to come close to
breaking even and still play, i wanted to try that....

It works for me, i know several other old couples like us that do the same, they are good at this, many of the
women are better than the men, now my wife does not play.. so for us, its me or the nothing.

But we are not in this to sell books, or videos, we are here to play the game we love without losing our
homes.

I am on here to encourage anyone that wants to get better at craps to do that. Now there are a number
of knuckleheads on this site, many that really dont care... but i have had many private emails from some that
do... i hope some people learn to stop giving their money to the casino....

but it is a choice


Dicesitter
Keyser
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March 28th, 2013 at 8:21:56 AM permalink
Quote:

"When" does dice influence start???



At conception. (Buzzard, I beat you to it. ;))
AcesAndEights
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April 10th, 2013 at 3:59:15 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

One time when dice influencing starts is when you get banned from shooting.

This happened to me yesterday at the Gold Coast casino. This is the first time this has happened to me, but it confirmed that they are worried about my shot.

TeddyS was with me. But I was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.

I was getting heat yesterday more than usual. I think it's just because Teddy is so suspicious looking though. Normally I am just laughing it up and there are no worries. But they were criticizing my shot all day at half the places I went to play.

At LVH all my shots were 100% fine, and they criticized me for taking too long. When they did that I sent the dice back to the center and asked the stick Michael, the hispanic stick man who looked like Cheech Marin, "what?" IE: I took more time to have him clarify the "rule" that I have to shoot more quickly.

I told him "I don't know of any rule that I have to play at a certain speed!" It began to turn into an argument, and I quickly sevened out and asked, "are you happier now?"

When it was my turn to shoot next, I told them "it's not fun for me anymore" and Curtis on box snickered. I was 100% serious. I asked out loud "what are you laughing about?" He didn't answer.

These guys act like it's a big joke when you take the game seriously. But if they REALLY weren't worried, they would pretend that they wanted you to win with any legal shot you got. That doesn't happen when you are rolling well at any casino that sweats the money.


They aren't worried about your shot. They know, like any smart casino employees, that your shot is random and over time, they will win their money from you.

What they do care about is keeping the game moving. More rolls = more money in the box. Less rolls = less money exposed to the house edge = less money in the box.

That is the reason for 99% of casino "reaction" to dice setters/would-be dice influencers. By being confrontational or playing dumb with the dealers/box men/etc., you aren't helping yourself out at all. It's their flipping casino. They have no obligation to let you, or anyone else, play any of their games. So if they don't like the way you're shooting, either try to speed it up or just continue on until they tell you to get lost.

Being a jackass isn't going to help your cause, on these boards or in the casino.

I've been relatively supportive of your posts up to this point, because I don't personally believe that dice influence is impossible. I really like the idea of extensive statistical tests against thousands of rolls worth of data, and you have the setup to make that happen. But you just have a really strange attitude, especially toward casino dealers who have been instructed to keep the dice moving. It's just their job, stop being so confrontational.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 4:36:38 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

They aren't worried about your shot. They know, like any smart casino employees, that your shot is random and over time, they will win their money from you.

What they do care about is keeping the game moving. More rolls = more money in the box. Less rolls = less money exposed to the house edge = less money in the box.

That is the reason for 99% of casino "reaction" to dice setters/would-be dice influencers. By being confrontational or playing dumb with the dealers/box men/etc., you aren't helping yourself out at all. It's their flipping casino. They have no obligation to let you, or anyone else, play any of their games. So if they don't like the way you're shooting, either try to speed it up or just continue on until they tell you to get lost.

Being a jackass isn't going to help your cause, on these boards or in the casino.

I've been relatively supportive of your posts up to this point, because I don't personally believe that dice influence is impossible. I really like the idea of extensive statistical tests against thousands of rolls worth of data, and you have the setup to make that happen. But you just have a really strange attitude, especially toward casino dealers who have been instructed to keep the dice moving. It's just their job, stop being so confrontational.



This was not about the dice moving and was only about short rolls.

Sorry you were confused.
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AcesAndEights
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April 10th, 2013 at 4:51:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

This was not about the dice moving and was only about short rolls.

Sorry you were confused.



Okay...

Quote: Ahigh

But I was writing stuff down and looking at papers on how to set the dice before my throws, and they told me I couldn't shoot at the Gold Coast for the next 24 hours.



Quote: Ahigh

At LVH all my shots were 100% fine, and they criticized me for taking too long. When they did that I sent the dice back to the center and asked the stick Michael, the hispanic stick man who looked like Cheech Marin, "what?" IE: I took more time to have him clarify the "rule" that I have to shoot more quickly.

I told him "I don't know of any rule that I have to play at a certain speed!" It began to turn into an argument, and I quickly sevened out and asked, "are you happier now?"



Those quotes are what spurred me to write my reply.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 4:58:37 PM permalink
Yeah, no worries, and I understand. Absolutely some players have the dice taken away for taking too much time.

That's never happened. It was very specifically about short roll in this case. I was shooting as soon as the dice got sent out to me and I took no more than three seconds to set the dice and no more than one second to shoot after the dice were pushed my way.

I was writing and looking at charts during the time that the dice were being called and in the center.

Teddy was there too. But this is influence on short rolls they are worried about, and it's well known that casinos do worry about short rolls.

Whether there are influenced short rolls is another debate. But the casinos assume that there is and they worry about them sometimes.
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MrV
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April 10th, 2013 at 5:45:50 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

That's never happened. It was very specifically about short roll in this case. I was shooting as soon as the dice got sent out to me and I took no more than three seconds to set the dice and no more than one second to shoot after the dice were pushed my way.



While I am not a dice setter (duh!), it certainly makes sense that someone who sets and plays regularly would be able to quickly set / fix the dice the way they want them, even when sliding the dice from where the stick leaves them to where the player chooses to pick them up.

So, an experienced dice setter will not slow down the game enough to warrant countermeasures.

Rookies and wannabes, ubetcha: ma and pa Kettle superstitiously fondling and blowing on the dice waste lots of time, but that nonsense is nothing new.

No, countermeasures are the fault of guys like Scoblete, who brag about beating the casinos out of millions by dice setting.
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:15:25 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

While I am not a dice setter (duh!), it certainly makes sense that someone who sets and plays regularly would be able to quickly set / fix the dice the way they want them, even when sliding the dice from where the stick leaves them to where the player chooses to pick them up.

So, an experienced dice setter will not slow down the game enough to warrant countermeasures.

Rookies and wannabes, ubetcha: ma and pa Kettle superstitiously fondling and blowing on the dice waste lots of time, but that nonsense is nothing new.

No, countermeasures are the fault of guys like Scoblete, who brag about beating the casinos out of millions by dice setting.



I agree with MrV and Ahigh that experienced dice setters can make their set in two seconds-- literally. This is nonsense blaming dice setters for delaying the game. Blame the new players, the players changing their bets, the players arguing with dealers, the players who do a pre roll ritual of praying, kissing, turning in circles, ordering drinks, then changing their bets again, then changing their drink order... for slowing the game.
SanchoPanza
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:38:41 PM permalink
The answer to the question of the thread's title seems to be growing clearer here. The answer, by all appearances, is dice influence starts whenever the shooter says it does.
Ahigh
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April 10th, 2013 at 8:06:12 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

The answer to the question of the thread's title seems to be growing clearer here. The answer, by all appearances, is dice influence starts whenever the shooter says it does.



I disagree. The only influence that casinos are concerned about is the influence that affects the bottom line. And my belief is that the only influence that is known to affect the bottom line is sliding and short rolls. The end.

Any other influence is not even proven to exist in the casino. So it's pointless to argue about when something that isn't proven to exist is to begin.

It would be about as fruitful as talking about which superstitions are true and which ones are false.
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AlanMendelson
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April 10th, 2013 at 8:56:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I disagree. The only influence that casinos are concerned about is the influence that affects the bottom line. And my belief is that the only influence that is known to affect the bottom line is sliding and short rolls. The end.

Any other influence is not even proven to exist in the casino. So it's pointless to argue about when something that isn't proven to exist is to begin.

It would be about as fruitful as talking about which superstitions are true and which ones are false.



So I don't understand. If this is what you truly believe why are you spending so much time doing whatever you are doing?
MrPapagiorgio
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The response wasn't about me. It was about how to tell when influence starts. The topic of the thread. This is one way to tell. If you want to talk about the possibility of me being a marked man, that's maybe another subject for another thread. But short answer: "ABSOLUTELY NOT!" Everywhere I go my play is welcome and everywhere I go they absolutely love me.

Yesterday was an exception, not the rule. Again, I await TeddyS's unbiased opinion. Maybe he will add his two cents.

When they gave me troubles at LVH, they didn't like HOW I was throwing the dice (IE: consistently and a little more slowly) more than anything else. I still shoot very fast. Look at the you tube video for the Wizard's Challenge on the Ahigh show. That's how fast I shoot. They were picking nits because about all I hit were 6 and 8 and I turned $25 into $150 in just a few rolls and then neutralized my come bets. It was after I neutralized my come bets that they complained about the pace, and it probably had more to do with me knowing how to win without taking huge risks that they didn't like.

If I bet $180 across to win $125 in 8 throws, it would have been no big whoop.

They don't like big percentage wins real quick unless you are exposed properly. I was parlaying come bets with no odds. They didn't like how I shot and they didn't like how I bet.

But each place is different. As it relates to the thread though, both these instances were feedback of what one would expect when you are influencing the dice. And to be clear again, I'm not saying this is confirmation, just what you should EXPECT if you are able to accomplish it.



I logged in after nearly 4 years of inactive lurking just to tell you how absolutely bat shit crazy you sound. That is all.
So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
Zcore13
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:18:53 PM permalink
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

I logged in after nearly 4 years of inactive lurking just to tell you how absolutely bat shit crazy you sound. That is all.



LOL Welcome back! I feel your pain.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:23:43 PM permalink
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

I logged in after nearly 4 years of inactive lurking just to tell you how absolutely bat shit crazy you sound. That is all.



Thank you so much for your comment. I am glad you came out of hiding.

Bat shit is known to accumulate for long periods of time in caves.



It is then used to make some of the biggest pumpkins known!



It's good that my bat shit crazy got you out of your cave you big pumpkin!
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:28:12 PM permalink
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

I logged in after nearly 4 years of inactive lurking just to tell you how absolutely bat shit crazy you sound. That is all.



LOL! We empathize with you, dude. Ahigh will
be along any minute to tell you you're wrong.
His response to everything is 'You're wrong'

He's the 'wrong' guy..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 2:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

LOL! We empathize with you, dude. Ahigh will
be along any minute to tell you you're wrong.
His response to everything is 'You're wrong'

He's the 'wrong' guy..



You're wrong. I was ALREADY done posting when you replied.

GEEEESH!!!
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EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:03:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You're wrong. !



Yes, we know, everybody is wrong and you're right.
They have meds for this kind of thing, check into it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:10:18 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Yes, we know, everybody is wrong and you're right.
They have meds for this kind of thing, check into it.



DUDE! You don't care if you're wrong or not! Don't pretend you do. But yeah, I tell you that you're wrong a lot because you are.
aahigh.com
EvenBob
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April 11th, 2013 at 3:43:46 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

DUDE! You don't care if you're wrong or not! ..



DUDE! You tell EVERYBODY they're wrong! Alan was wrong
every time he posted. Everybody is wrong except you, or
haven't you noticed. I don't even pay attention to it, you're
like a kid with a stutter..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
thecesspit
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:07:04 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

DUDE! You tell EVERYBODY they're wrong! Alan was wrong
every time he posted. Everybody is wrong except you, or
haven't you noticed. I don't even pay attention to it, you're
like a kid with a stutter..



This post... ironic, don't you think?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
MrPapagiorgio
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April 11th, 2013 at 4:34:22 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

This post... ironic, don't you think?



So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
TheWolf713
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April 11th, 2013 at 6:15:48 PM permalink
So back to the Original Post...


When does it start?

Can i just say say...."Im going to roll a hard 8... 90 rolls later... THERE IT GOES!!! That was influenced" Im not trying to disrespect anyone, but Im really trying to understand the exact point when it happens. Does it only apply to 'Desired outcome' only? Are the 89 rolls prior to it considered null??
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
Zcore13
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April 11th, 2013 at 6:21:57 PM permalink
I think you may have just nailed it.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AlanMendelson
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April 11th, 2013 at 6:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

So back to the Original Post...


When does it start?

Can i just say say...."Im going to roll a hard 8... 90 rolls later... THERE IT GOES!!! That was influenced" Im not trying to disrespect anyone, but Im really trying to understand the exact point when it happens. Does it only apply to 'Desired outcome' only? Are the 89 rolls prior to it considered null??



There seems to be a very loose definition of dice control and even dice influencing here. And that has been my point from the beginning. Early on I asked for a "definition" and everybody detoured around it.

TheWolf has now taken the lack of a definition to the extreme here, and pretty much, his satire is spot on. This is how dice control has been defined: if I plan to do something and it happens to come along eventually then I was controlling the dice.

This is why I also reject the idea that dice controllers need luck. For heaven's sake, either your are controlling the dice or you're not. Luck is not an issue.
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 8:47:08 PM permalink
These terms are meaningless first of all.

Advantage Play is what I would use as a term.

Here is how I attempt (not perform) advantage play, and I generally do this every day.

I start with a line bet at the minimum amount, and I bet flat bets and I gauge my confidence to roll what I want to roll.

If things are going well, and my confidence improves that I am landing where I want and getting results that look good to my eye in terms of what I hope to see, I try to remain calm as I increase my bets.

For my shot, I might then go with a $30 8 and a $5 hard 8 and try to hit a hard 8.

If I hit that, I consider that a break-even point and try to hit another hard 8.

If I hit another hard 8, I consider myself ahead, and I then start the whole process over after feeling a moment of "success."

In general, when I am attempting to advantage play, I try to flat bet for a hit, and hopefully two hits, and then I'm down, especially if my confidence goes down, my bets come down.

I am not a blackjack player, but coming down when I don't feel confidence is as important to me as a card counter decreasing his bets when he feels he no longer has an advantage.

Those who think that you have to deliver thousands of shots regardless of your state of mind or how confident you feel about your shot or who merely look at the house edge of each and every bet more closely than what number those bets are associated with, in my opinion, are more likely not as experienced. Or they are possibly just betting smart and not shooting towards the bets that they have.

But to recap, this is just my attempt as I admit I am not currently a lifetime winner at craps.

I don't know if this answers any questions, but the other answer, to me, is when I turn $25 into $1,500 (without having more money in my pocket or easily accessible) that's a moment where I think "I wonder if my method of play is responsible for that or if it was luck."

When I do that 3 or 4 times in a week and buy a gold bar to lock up those wins and do it again, that's a moment where I feel somewhat confidence that there's a chance that there's something there besides just luck.

But it could just be luck.

That's my perspective anyway.
aahigh.com
MrV
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:03:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


I don't know if this answers any questions, but the other answer, to me, is when I turn $25 into $1,500 (without having more money in my pocket or easily accessible) that's a moment where I think "I wonder if my method of play is responsible for that or if it was luck."
When I do that 3 or 4 times in a week and buy a gold bar to lock up those wins and do it again, that's a moment where I feel somewhat confidence that there's a chance that there's something there besides just luck.



It's only luck.

Archie Karas had an epic winning streak: he almost "won" Binions.

But then the worm turned ... as it does for us all.

But keep dreaming the dream ...
"What, me worry?"
Zcore13
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:20:33 PM permalink
It's really hard to read or even respond to your post Aaron. You are so off base and comparing apples to oranges it's almost funny.

1. The description of how you play is pretty much how every craps player plays. We want to hit a number. Maybe the point, maybe another number or a hardway something or other. If we hit it we feel pretty good. I know I do. And we try and do it again. If we do it again we feel a moment of success.

2. You coming down based on your feeling is NOTHING like a blackjack player who counts the cards coming down when the count is not favorable. Yours is a feeling. A tingle or voice in your head. The blackjack player is a fact that they are now at a disadvantage based on mathematics and statistics. No way comparable.

3. I believe I could think about dog poop and spiders and alternate between my left hand and right hand and roll the same as you over time. Maybe some day I can do that on your show. I think it would be fun and I'm pretty sure the viewers would enjoy it.

4. I play craps at a very low limit but last time I played in Laughlin I turned $60 into over $300. This was with only $5 on the pass line and double odds. When I was doing well I placed a $1 on all hardways for the dealers and hit everyone one of them before sevening out. I had a nice roll. 20 maybe? I never once wondered if my method of play was responsible. I also lost $600 playing Three Card Poker and High Card Flush. I also never thought my method of play was responsible for that either, since I play PERFECT Three Card and High Card Flush strategy. It's just the luck of the draw in both games.

5. You're not accomplishing anything by locking up gold if you are even lifetime. Your spending your own money you are winning back after losing on gold. You can just buy gold with that same money without risking it if the "locking up investments" is what you want to do. Buy gold with your money you are winning back is not impressive.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AlanMendelson
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April 11th, 2013 at 9:22:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

These terms are meaningless first of all.

Advantage Play is what I would use as a term.



Okay, I can accept that. Let's talk about advantage play. First of all, you don't have to even throw the dice to be an advantage player at craps. Like in video poker, you have to play the best bets with the lowest edge, and rake in whatever freebies and comps and giveaways you can get your hands on.

I think a passline bettor or a dont pass bettor (lowest edge bet on the table) who bets enough to score big comps, or at a Caesars property enough reward credits to be fullly compaed and to redeem reward credits for department store gift cards or gas cards is a pretty good advantage player. With a good-sized bet on the pass or DP you stand to stay, eat free, get plenty of shows and shopping, and have a fair chance of having a net gain from the department store gift cards and merchandise you can buy through Total Rewards.
Ahigh
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April 11th, 2013 at 10:36:39 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

It's really hard to read or even respond to your post Aaron. You are so off base and comparing apples to oranges it's almost funny.

1. The description of how you play is pretty much how every craps player plays. We want to hit a number. Maybe the point, maybe another number or a hardway something or other. If we hit it we feel pretty good. I know I do. And we try and do it again. If we do it again we feel a moment of success.

2. You coming down based on your feeling is NOTHING like a blackjack player who counts the cards coming down when the count is not favorable. Yours is a feeling. A tingle or voice in your head. The blackjack player is a fact that they are now at a disadvantage based on mathematics and statistics. No way comparable.

3. I believe I could think about dog poop and spiders and alternate between my left hand and right hand and roll the same as you over time. Maybe some day I can do that on your show. I think it would be fun and I'm pretty sure the viewers would enjoy it.

4. I play craps at a very low limit but last time I played in Laughlin I turned $60 into over $300. This was with only $5 on the pass line and double odds. When I was doing well I placed a $1 on all hardways for the dealers and hit everyone one of them before sevening out. I had a nice roll. 20 maybe? I never once wondered if my method of play was responsible. I also lost $600 playing Three Card Poker and High Card Flush. I also never thought my method of play was responsible for that either, since I play PERFECT Three Card and High Card Flush strategy. It's just the luck of the draw in both games.

5. You're not accomplishing anything by locking up gold if you are even lifetime. Your spending your own money you are winning back after losing on gold. You can just buy gold with that same money without risking it if the "locking up investments" is what you want to do. Buy gold with your money you are winning back is not impressive.

ZCore13



I didn't say I came down on a feeling. I said I increase and decrease my bets based on confidence.

If you're saying you should bet bigger even when you're not confident of your shot, I would disagree.

If something is distracting me or for any reason I don't feel confident, I will still play, but I will play at lower levels until I feel comfortable.

There are only two cases surrounding confidence of being able to deliver what you believe is a good shot. You either factor in your confidence or you bet when you're not confident.

I read your response loud and clear if you disagree: you bet just as big when you are not confident of your shot because you don't have any degree of confidence in your shot and you consider it not different than a superstition.

If I had zero confidence in my shot and I had zero time invested in researching what to expect from my shot, I would agree with you.

But I have more confidence in my shot based on the work that I have done over years of practice, writing software, and doing analysis on my shot.

Without that, I wouldn't do what I'm saying that I do.

Without that, I would be playing just like you describe. And I do play that way when I bet on other people's shots. And I even bet bigger on random shooters shots many times than on my own.

I've taken $300 to $1800 on random shooters before, and I got lucky.

But that's not the subject. The subject is "when does influence begin" or "how can you tell?"

The purpose of locking up gold is to prevent me from making larger bets if and when I get impatient. It does serve a purpose as I can only turn gold into cash during normal business hours at Sahara Coin. So far I haven't sold any gold at all, and if I instead had cash in my checking account it would be much more likely to be spent even though gold is nearly as liquid. It's effectively just a way to chart my progress using a liquid asset that is easily sold in an emergency that's not likely to be risked in further gambling.

To give you another answer: if you don't believe a controlled shot can give you an advantage bet, then you can't answer the original question.

And all I said was that my efforts were attempts, not even that I was accomplishing this.

The last time I gambled, I was getting black chips off-and-on and parlayed hardways, and I left the table with $1,600 and I deposited it all in my checking account and I just paid my mortgage payment early.

You can say that does nothing if you want, but to me, it makes me relax about having money in the future and it does something for me knowing that even though I have no cash, I also have no debt and my bills are paid in advance and I have liquid assets all around me if I need them; but I don't.

So I will agree that it has nothing to do with advantage play, really, but if you can routinely turn a $100 buy in into more serious money, and turn the more serious money into stuff of value that's harder to turn back into cash, it will prevent you from making big bets and keep you in the practice of getting higher percentage wins more frequently and leaning more heavily on smaller repetitive advantage plays that keep you in the game than high-risk plays that are less likely to work in the long run and generally win smaller multiples of your original buy-in.
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AxelWolf
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:08:28 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Pretty much every single "experienced dealer" I have ever had at PG tiles told me (as if he were doing me a favor) that I shouldn't bank every other hand when playing alone because it would break up my lucky streaks. You should see the reaction Chinese dealers give me when I bank after the dealer gets 2-2. It's like I committed a crime against humanity.

"Experienced dealers" are among the worst when it comes to evaluating probability because they often are uneducated and have monotonous jobs such that they easily remember outliers and random events, and then mistake those for statistical evidence.

Craps dealers have routinely told players in my games that it was a "smart move" to call off their place bets for a roll after the dice went off the table. It's a smart move to ALWAYS call off place bets, since they are negative, but this advice stems from the craps dealers' belief that the 7 comes more often after the dice hit the ground, cooling them off. Textbook example of confirmation bias.

AMEN....we really need likes and dislikes on this forum
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Just so you know, I just motorboated my face into my woman's boobs. She loved it!

.

I noticed that some people get mad when when their significant others are brought into conversations yet sometimes they bring it on themselves.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ahigh
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:40:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I noticed that some people get mad when when their significant others are brought into conversations yet sometimes they bring it on themselves.



I'm not mad about my SO being *IN* the conversation. I'm mad about someone making comedy out of my vernacular of calling my woman "my woman."

That's what I call her, and she's fine by it, and regardless of what it means to other people, to me, that's what I call her and she likes it!

What I'm "mad" about is being laughed at and compared to an unintelligent fictional character (in this case Tarzan) in reference to my vernacular.

Nothing to do with my woman, or as you so PC referred to her as my "significant other."

It has to do with making a demeaning remark about my intelligence as inferred from my word selection.

IE: What upsets me is the comment that intends to say that I am unintelligent for calling her "my woman."

And I will tell you, I'm proud of my woman and I like the fact that she's gorgeous and she likes me just the way I am.

I don't know. It seems like a lot of people on here don't understand me; and that's fine. Just don't assume that means that I'm stupid, alright?
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EvenBob
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April 12th, 2013 at 6:56:38 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


I don't know. It seems like a lot of people on here don't understand me; and that's fine.



No, a lot of people here do understand you and most
of the time you don't think thats fine at all. I don't need
to go into detail, thats already been done previously.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
thecesspit
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April 12th, 2013 at 8:29:24 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is why I also reject the idea that dice controllers need luck. For heaven's sake, either your are controlling the dice or you're not. Luck is not an issue.



Probability is. They don't -need- luck, but in the short term, they will have the variance (maybe less than mere mortals). It's the same with card counters. They don't need luck over the long term, but in the short term, as we've seen, they can have wild swings.

The big difference... I'm sure card counters exist.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ahigh
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April 12th, 2013 at 9:11:10 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

No, a lot of people here do understand you.



WRONG.
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EvenBob
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April 12th, 2013 at 1:28:33 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

WRONG.



LOL! Nice one, like nobody saw that coming.. Those of us
who understand you knew it could be your only response.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AxelWolf
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April 12th, 2013 at 3:20:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I'm not mad about my SO being *IN* the conversation. I'm mad about someone making comedy out of my vernacular of calling my woman "my woman."

It seems you already have a few felidae around here stalking you, just waiting for an opening. I think if it were me I would avoid mentioning my bitches, my woman or the wifey's name unless absolutely necessary. IE... My Wonderful wife is having a dinner party for everyone including EvenBob & AlenM. Certainly making comments about your girl where the description may leave pg-13 images in our heads will bring the schoolboys out to point, laugh and give the bullies an opening.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TheWolf713
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April 12th, 2013 at 10:18:30 PM permalink
And....Back to the discussion..
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
Zcore13
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April 13th, 2013 at 10:15:44 AM permalink
I think the discussion is over. And the answer to the question of "When does dice influencing start" is.... when it's convenient for the influencer to say it started.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AlanMendelson
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April 13th, 2013 at 10:19:43 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I think the discussion is over. And the answer to the question of "When does dice influencing start" is.... when it's convenient for the influencer to say it started.

ZCore13



I like that.
Ahigh
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April 13th, 2013 at 10:40:44 AM permalink
Honestly, this is so goddamn easy. It only starts in the imagination of those who falsely believe that it is possible.

Why not just ask the real question: has anybody proven it to be possible? Because without that underlying proof, the whole question of asking when something that's not proven to be possible "starts" is only to ridicule those who believe things that are not proven possible based on a weak belief system.

It's like asking "when does god perform miracles?"

Jesus MF ing Christ. At least dice influence COULD be proven if it weren't for all the dorks playing games with stupid loaded questions like this set up to ridicule those who respond.

Why not post on the "is there a god" topic if all you want to do is inflame the users of the forum?
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EvenBob
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April 13th, 2013 at 12:26:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Jesus MF ing Christ. At least dice influence COULD be proven if it weren't for all the dorks playing games with stupid loaded questions



What do dorks with questions have to do with scientific
research? "Gee, we'd like to research a cure for cancer,
but all the dorks with loaded questions are stopping us."

You crack me up, Ahigh..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Zcore13
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April 13th, 2013 at 1:30:03 PM permalink
Unfortunately Aaron's theory on dice control is going in the pooper just like his Bitcoin ponzi scheme investment. It seems he likes to grasp on to imaginary things. I feel bad for him in both cases because he was so sure both were real.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AxelWolf
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April 13th, 2013 at 8:44:37 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I generally disagree. I like to bet with zero to no wagers most of my rolls and light it up when I am feeling confident.
should approach bets.
IE: I believe my ability to influence the dice is MUCH MUCH MUCH stronger on some rolls and is COMPLETELY ABSENT on others

Ahigh when does a DIer/DCer know when he or she has made a good roll, toss or throw? When your arm is in motion? After your wrists have rotated? As you release the dice? As its in the air? As its about to land? right when it lands? As its rolling, After it rolls? after you decide it fits well in your criteria for a good roll. As in almost all sports that involve a skill ( I would call DC/DI a skill whether you can gain an edge or not. I'm 100% sure some people can add some control over the dice in the air prior to hitting the table ) the player/athlete can usually tell instantly if they have made a good shoot or not. When I shoot a game of 8 or 9 ball most of the time I know a split second before I strike the ball if it's a good shoot or not. Also players/athletes often know when they are playing bad and in a case of some pool players after a few shoots they will often say they feel off tonight. So to avoid cherry picking after the fact, why not? 1) prior to starting always take a set number of practice shoots that never count. Then state how your feeling. ( if your results started coinciding with how you were feeling NOW we have something) Every x amount of throws stop, and have some practice throws that don't count but determine how your feeling. 2) during your throws (you should know at some point during your toss if its a good or bad one) SHOUT out GOOD or BAD or say RANDOM or Controlled. Once again if you say your felling good prior to shooting and you have a higher SSR during that time and a lower SSR when its a random toss This would be some good evidence of DC/DI.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Zcore13
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April 13th, 2013 at 8:56:51 PM permalink
If you watch his program on Tuesday nights you'll see that there is no correlation in results when he says that he feels good on a roll. and when he does it something that he says he's trying to get like a hard 10, the dice are rolling all over the place there is no control it all.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
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