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SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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March 8th, 2013 at 3:41:33 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Ahigh has not alleged nor accused any casinos of wrongdoing. He has merely reported facts, and has speculated on possibilities, just like most on this forum and on countless other Internet forums.


No???? What do you call this:>
"Go to Fiesta Rancho and look for red transparent dice with serial numbers 11xx. That's the best lead that I currently have."

That is more than the typical mere BS speculation. That is besmirching without a scintilla of basis. Just what we have been seeing right here.
Ahigh
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:15:29 PM permalink
All it is, and go and reread that post and the post before that from me, is a lead!

Read the previous post for context of my comments!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13148-bad-dice-the-saga-continues/22/#post225439

Especially this comment I made:

Quote:

If the dice are already fair, and all this is just random stuff happening, we will hear back from people saying as much.



in response to Harley's comments. Don't think that sounds like an accusation, just a way for others to follow up on the work to find out if there is anything to this suspicious data.

All those comments are is a lead on how to follow up on the POSSIBILITY of SUSPICIOUS DICE. There is still a 40% chance those dice are fair dice according to Chi-squared.

Alan was looking for specific information to follow up on a story.

If he went back and collected MORE DATA from those dice (IE: did the work) he could maybe get a story.

The truth is that he's not going to spend all day with some finger snappers at the Fiesta!

But for you to say I am accusing ANYONE of ANYTHING is just flat out WRONG.

Read all of my messages in this thread.

Everything is simply considering the possibility, and the are NO ACCUSATIONS AT ALL!

In fact, I think the whole thing is hilarious. Including YOUR WRONG CONCLUSIONS! The fact that everybody here is thinking stuff that is so obviously wrong makes me LAUGH AND LAUGH AND LAUGH.

Sancho... LOLz.
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Ahigh
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:23:31 PM permalink
Here's what I'm saying though: nobody is going to do any work! Are you freaking kidding me? It's hard work!!! And even to exploit it, you need to grind a ton of money for a couple bucks!!!

My whole point in making this thread is that THERE IS IN FACT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT HARLEY'S THEORIES.

Maybe you guys don't like that fact, but IT IS A FACT! LIVE WITH IT!!!
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thecesspit
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:33:58 PM permalink
It's greater than 40% chance. You are using the chi-squared results incorrectly.

The chi-squared number says the probability of seeing that distribution is 40% if the dice is uniformly random. That is NOT the same as it being a 40% chance that the dice is uniformly random.

Very important distinction. The point of chi-squared is to reject the null hypothesis (this dice is uniformly random) by showing the probability of the distribution you've seen is very small (5%, 1%, 0.1%.... I think you;d have to go to 0.1%).

It is NOT intended to give you the probability that the dice ARE random.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ahigh
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:35:17 PM permalink
Thanks for the correction. I am totally new to chi-squared, and apologize for the mistake. I will learn eventually.

But the point is still there is a very large possibility that the dice are fair. We can agree on that, no?

My point is that I've not been saying anything is certain or making accusations to anyone or any casino.

I have been saying that IF there is truth to it, here is how to exploit it!

Exploiting it is the absolutely best way to bring it to any casino's attention!
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Buzzard
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:36:24 PM permalink
THERE IS IN FACT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT HARLEY'S THEORIES.


When will that evidence be revealed to us not in the inner circle ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
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March 8th, 2013 at 4:46:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Thanks for the correction. I am totally new to chi-squared, and apologize for the mistake. I will learn eventually.

But the point is still there is a very large possibility that the dice are fair. We can agree on that, no?



Yes... VERY large, far greater than 40%, based on the samples we've seen. I'm sorry I've not had time to chuck some cheap dice around and see what comes out with them.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Face
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March 8th, 2013 at 5:23:38 PM permalink
Quote: Harley

AHigh .... the Wynn Sliding dice story from late 2011 where several dealers and box were mysteriously fired and several players had trumped up civil charges filed against them was a case where some smart players exploited biased dice legally .... the facts of the case as reported do not make sense and a security friend of ours saw the video tape --- there was no sliding of the dice as alleged



I saw that footage. Several times, actually, wrote about it here.

That had zero to do with biased die, DI, DC, or anything else. It was 100% short-throw sliding, and a ridiculous example of it as well.

I'd take all of the player's money away just because it was such a sad example. I'd then award it right back due to the complete idiocy of the dealing squad that night.

I don't have a dog in this fight, just wanted to correct misinformation. Carry on...
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
tupp
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March 8th, 2013 at 6:19:46 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Speaking of proof, could you please provide verification that you have deposited with an independent party your half of our $100 bet on the upcoming dice trial?

Quote: Buzzard

NO !


I see.

So, you are backing out of our bet?
tupp
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March 8th, 2013 at 6:23:44 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Ahigh has not alleged nor accused any casinos of wrongdoing. He has merely reported facts, and has speculated on possibilities, just like most on this forum and on countless other Internet forums.

Quote: SanchoPanza

No???? What do you call this:>
"Go to Fiesta Rancho and look for red transparent dice with serial numbers 11xx. That's the best lead that I currently have."
That is more than the typical mere BS speculation. That is besmirching without a scintilla of basis. Just what we have been seeing right here.


No.

It is quite plain that Ahigh is merely pointing to the series of dice in question, for anyone who cares to try to test his findings.
tupp
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March 8th, 2013 at 6:30:28 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm confused? Why did Ahigh mention a particular casino and invite us (me) to go observe the dice there and discover how to win money from an alleged bias with particular dice with a particular partial code number?


Scientific method. One shows findings, and gives details so that others can retest those findings.


Quote: AlanMendelson

I also enjoy Ahigh's exercise, but he is not the first to employ charting of tables. I will acknowledge that he is using the charting for the isolated purpose of finding out if the dice are biased. Others have used this fantasy to determine if tables are "hot" or "cold."


Charts and tables are unnecessary to see that the results are skewed to the 1s and 6s. Charts are just for speculative discussion.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I am not attacking him personally. In fact, I like the guy. I even invited him out to dinner tonight (but he didn't have the courtesy to respond). We also made plans twice before to meet up -- but we never did. I wonder if Ahigh doesn't want to meet up for some reason?? Anyway I digress. This is not a personal attack, but a disagreement over his claims and the evidence he presents here.


Okay. Then, perhaps it would be best for us to continue our discussion without the use of the term "you" (or "your" or "you're"). Such a change would switch our focus to the issues, away from those discussing the issues.
Buzzard
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March 8th, 2013 at 8:20:36 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

I see.

So, you are backing out of our bet?



NO !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
tupp
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March 8th, 2013 at 8:52:20 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

So, you are backing out of our bet?

Quote: Buzzard

NO !


Oh. Then your side of the wager will be "Post Toasties?"
Ahigh
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March 8th, 2013 at 11:31:40 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

It's greater than 40% chance. You are using the chi-squared results incorrectly.

The chi-squared number says the probability of seeing that distribution is 40% if the dice is uniformly random. That is NOT the same as it being a 40% chance that the dice is uniformly random.

Very important distinction. The point of chi-squared is to reject the null hypothesis (this dice is uniformly random) by showing the probability of the distribution you've seen is very small (5%, 1%, 0.1%.... I think you;d have to go to 0.1%).

It is NOT intended to give you the probability that the dice ARE random.



I'm still trying to understand this assertion. I thought it means that there is a 40% chance that the distribution is correct and you're just seeing random deviations that are normal. Not that the probability of seeing that distribution is whatever percent. If the probability of seeing that distribution is 40% then all the other distributions would have to fit in the remaining 60%, and that's ridiculous (RAA says that can't be right!)

I have face distributions with a p-value of 98%. My interpretation was that there was a 98% chance that the distributions are as I expected them to be! And a 2% chance that they are not what I expected them to be, just randomly came out that way when in fact they are a little bit different than I expected.

I'm not saying you're wrong, though, just that I'm confused.

I will read up more online about it though. Thanks for the response.

After reading Wiki, the key phrase is, "at least as extreme"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

So that clears it up.

Now that I have chi-squared built into my software, it's easy for me to see that if I had collected 800 rolls to 1000 rolls instead of only 350 and had these same distribution of faces that it would be enough to say very strongly that something is going on.

I may go back soon and see if I can get that many rolls recorded. 1000 rolls would take all day, but on the don't pass, it should cost $0.02 per roll or less to collect them even if I have to finger-snap random roll them myself!

The last time I was there, I saw serial number 1169 in play (serial number 1199 was the one that had the report from the original post).

If I see serial number 1100 through 1200 I will assume it's in the same batch and hope for the best.
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Buzzard
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March 9th, 2013 at 7:32:45 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

Oh. Then your side of the wager will be "Post Toasties?"




Quote: SOOPOO
Uh, Buzz.... playing the senile old man does not get you out of this. tupp has offered to put his money where his mouth is, and you conveniently have ignored his offer. So are you, Buzz, going to put YOUR money where your mouth is?

If you are afraid of tupp not paying up, I'll pay you if he doesn't. So no excuses....



SOOPOO I have already proved that cash ain't that important to me. Of course the bet is on, but if TUPP does not pay, I don't want your money. Fair enough ?



PS From here till March 11 you will be talking to yourself, not me. Enjoy the solitude.

I will stand by the bet as originally made. It was only weeks later that you posted that you had put the funds in trust. I am not, so just concentrate on winning and stop whining !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
SOOPOO
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March 9th, 2013 at 8:28:45 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Quote: tupp

Oh. Then your side of the wager will be "Post Toasties?"




Quote: SOOPOO
Uh, Buzz.... playing the senile old man does not get you out of this. tupp has offered to put his money where his mouth is, and you conveniently have ignored his offer. So are you, Buzz, going to put YOUR money where your mouth is?

If you are afraid of tupp not paying up, I'll pay you if he doesn't. So no excuses....



SOOPOO I have already proved that cash ain't that important to me. Of course the bet is on, but if TUPP does not pay, I don't want your money. Fair enough ?



PS From here till March 11 you will be talking to yourself, not me. Enjoy the solitude.

I will stand by the bet as originally made. It was only weeks later that you posted that you had put the funds in trust. I am not, so just concentrate on winning and stop whining !



Buzz---- tupp's 'concentration on winning' will not help him..... it is Nickolay who will be rolling the dice. I am glad you answered that the bet with tupp is up and running. Can't wait til Monday!
Ahigh
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March 9th, 2013 at 8:32:37 AM permalink
Tupp's just taking a jab at ya, Buzz. We all know you're good for your word. Let's focus on making it fun on Monday though. Thanks for everyone's interest and participation.
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SanchoPanza
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March 9th, 2013 at 10:57:15 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

It is quite plain that Ahigh is merely pointing to the series of dice in question, for anyone who cares to try to test his findings.


It is quite plain in this case that there is then no basis for specifying said casino and said set of dice. In other words, the whole suggestion, as well as the ensuing discussion, fails the basic test of reasonable suspicion or probable cause.
Ahigh
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March 9th, 2013 at 1:07:09 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

It is quite plain in this case that there is then no basis for specifying said casino and said set of dice. In other words, the whole suggestion, as well as the ensuing discussion, fails the basic test of reasonable suspicion or probable cause.



Thanks for your opinion on the matter. I disagree with your opinion. If you have a better place to look for theoretically biased dice, speak up. Otherwise, the discussion was what is your best lead. That's the best lead I had for Alan to go and do the work that I have been doing on my own up until this point.

Everybody, including you, wants to say that my work is not valid without doing any work of their own.

So here's my claim: you can go and do the work, and I will take the position you currently have. Sitting back in your chair talking trash against all the hard work that you will be doing in the future making claims about how ridiculous you are for presenting evidence and making accusations that there is no basis for a conclusion when you aren't even making one.

Here's what I think is plain: you.
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SanchoPanza
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March 9th, 2013 at 1:24:34 PM permalink
How about describing just what the experience was with that particular set of dice at that particular venue that helped lead to sweeping generalizations?
Ahigh
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March 9th, 2013 at 1:34:43 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

How about describing just what the experience was with that particular set of dice at that particular venue that helped lead to sweeping generalizations?



Which sweeping generalizations are you referring to? The ones where I say, "here's some data that supports what Harley is saying?"

Everybody generalizes, but I have no idea what sweeping generalizations you're talking about.
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tupp
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March 9th, 2013 at 2:29:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Tupp's just taking a jab at ya, Buzz. We all know you're good for your word. Let's focus on making it fun on Monday though. Thanks for everyone's interest and participation.


Please note that I am never the one who jabs first.

Yes. Monday should be a lot of fun!
Buzzard
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March 9th, 2013 at 7:12:27 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Please note that I am never the one who jabs first.

Yes. Monday should be a lot of fun!




I was simply following the advice Polonius gave to his son Laertes !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
SanchoPanza
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March 9th, 2013 at 8:16:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Everybody generalizes, but I have no idea what sweeping generalizations you're talking about.


Here is a typical sample: "if casinos don't want to look at die balance and leave themselves exposed, I guess that's how it will be for now. This is absolutely evidence that imbalanced dice are out there. I have no idea if this amount of imbalance is detectable from other balance devices, but I doubt it. The $40 calipers are pretty poor in quality and are difficult to use and read, and more often give you misreads."
Ahigh
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March 10th, 2013 at 4:56:11 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Here is a typical sample: "if casinos don't want to look at die balance and leave themselves exposed, I guess that's how it will be for now. This is absolutely evidence that imbalanced dice are out there. I have no idea if this amount of imbalance is detectable from other balance devices, but I doubt it. The $40 calipers are pretty poor in quality and are difficult to use and read, and more often give you misreads."



Those are not sweeping generalizations at all. To the best of my knowledge, I have the most accurate die balancer in existence. I have taken the balancer and I have demonstrated it face-to-face with those in charge of casino pits. The responses that I got was that this was a very interesting and effective, and even impressive balance, but there is absolutely no interest in taking the time to inspect the dice to that level of detail.

If you would like to know exactly who I talked to, I can provide you with names, but this is not a generalization. Of the people I talked to, I am absolutely certain that you can verify with Wayne at the Silverton that I demonstrated the balance to him and he assured me that neither he or anyone else in charge of dice in Vegas is interested in it. This is the general truth: nobody cares about the balance being precise enough to pass my die balancer's test.

I have absolutely demonstrated with 100% proof to my own personal satisfaction that there are casino dice that are not balanced properly with my balancer. In fact, just this evening, I have had some un-cancelled dice brought to my house and tested them in my balancer, and they are very obviously out of balance and detectable both with my balancer as well as the cheap balancer.

My balance can absolutely detect more slight amounts of imbalance than any other balance available. The fact is that there is no demand for my balance because casinos are not concerned enough to feel they need my balance device. IE: it's just not a priority for them.

Until it affects their bottom line, they are not going to care about it.

But this is not a generalization. It's the truth. They don't care, don't believe, don't admit, or whatever it is, there is no direct expression of concern about the dice being balanced from any casino that I know of. Certainly not to the extent that they feel they need a balance device that works better than the best one available, which is to say that the level of necessity that they feel a die needs to be balanced is only as effective as what they currently available $40 balancer can achieve.

But there is nothing general about this. My balance is available and I am willing to sell it, yet there is zero demand. Multiple casinos are very aware my balance exists, and they aren't worried about it being a problem for them as their bottom line has not been affected one iota from not having one already. IE: it's extra work that is unnecessary for them.

I know this is a lot of detail, but just so you understand: this is not a generalization. This is very specific, and I can provide as much detail as you want to know.

In fact, if you want to try to prove me wrong, why not find someone in charge of a pit in Las Vegas who is interested in a better die balancer! Tell them I will give them a personal demonstration. And I will tell you what they will say, "what for again?" Then they'll scoff and laugh maybe. They don't do that. Mic 'em and done. Anything more than mic'ing the dice, and it's not going to be openly talked about what they are doing. The end.

Just this evening (a few hours ago) I saw someone grinding the yo for four hours from midnight to 4am. He bet the yo every roll on a grind with only minimal other bets to shoot, and he was up over a thousand bucks. Four hours on the yo every roll!

Marco was dealing and Long was on box and Nancy was also dealing at the Silverton as witnesses to this person who did a grind on the yo and the guy was at about $1,500 from a $100 buy-in when I left.

Who knows, maybe he is following along! Maybe we will see more of this. The hop bets seem horrible until you start counting samples to see what faces are higher (maybe 6 and 5 for this set of dice?) and start grinding and never go down.

Is it proof? Absolutely not. But in my three years, this is the first time I have seen this. And the guy did NOT look stupid at all. Very intelligent younger Asian guy (about 37 years old maybe). Definitely looked smarter than his betting pattern of grinding the yo on EVERY SINGLE ROLL.
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Ahigh
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:20:07 AM permalink
I created this excel file to show the edges given face weights using the math.

In column B, if you put in values of 1 from B2 through B7, you will see all the edges you know and love down at the bottom.

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/excel/biased_faces_with_line_bet_edges.xlsx

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/img/fiesta_rancho_face_sample_edges.png



http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/img/fair_face_sample_edges.png



You can download this spreadsheet and look at edges that result on various bets given unevenly distributed face weights.

It's pretty interesting to just play with the face weights to see what you can do to get super high edges on the passline without making exposure on the don't pass or anything else except the horn bets and/or the field.

It will definitely make you wonder the next time you start seeing lots of hi's and lo's and 6-1 seven outs come up.

And of course, all this is theory, and conspiracy theory at that. But have fun playing with this if you're interested.
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FleaStiff
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March 16th, 2013 at 5:09:16 AM permalink
Okay. I've skipped over alot of posts in this "Bad Dice" thread, partly because my eyes glazed over when I tried to figure out all these charts and diagrams. Reminds me of those ancient maps where the legend reads "Beyond here are monsters".

Can anyone show me someone who has these "bad dice" and is making a bundle with them somewhere? I'll admit that even if a casino buys somewhat cheap dice and they get abused a bit they will have some wear and tear and maybe a chipped pip or something or an edge whats got a nick in it. Heck an airplane wing has nicks and dents and bugs adhering to it, but the plane still flies despite its less than perfect condition. That cocktail waitress who just handed you a drink and a napkin with her name and number on it may have a few defects too, but you are still going to give her a call aren't you?
Wizard
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March 16th, 2013 at 5:16:09 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

That cocktail waitress who just handed you a drink and a napkin with her name and number on it may have a few defects too, but you are still going to give her a call aren't you?



How come that never happens to me?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
FleaStiff
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March 16th, 2013 at 5:36:32 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

How come that never happens to me?

Maybe because you ain't flinging biased dice on their radial axis at a biased table's sweet spot.
SanchoPanza
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March 16th, 2013 at 8:02:46 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Maybe because you ain't flinging biased dice on their radial axis at a biased table's sweet spot.


Oh, now we understand. You mean "The Big G."
Ahigh
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March 16th, 2013 at 8:50:01 AM permalink
The members of this forum are as obsessive over what should be free bets IN THEORY with perfect dice as other forums are about how you throw the dice to be fair to the two opposing camps on the game of craps.

All this does is demonstrate that the bets are not free for any distribution except perfectly flat. Perfectly flat distributions generally don't exist anywhere except in theory.

The challenge is to record outcomes for a stick of dice in a real casino, download the spreadsheet, and see what the edges are in reality of the real world instead of mocking people who believe things that are not compatible with your personal belief system.

The casino doesn't look at things this way, they just look at the holds. But for a casino that takes more free odds bets than lay odds bets, their holds are going to look better the fewer those free odds bets have any player advantage, especially for a given dice manufacturer that they happen to use.

You guys can mock people with different beliefs than you, but as long as you don't collect your own real world data to plug into this spreadsheet with enough samples, your free odds bet is just a guess as much as the guy who learns to throw the dice and assumes he's getting an advantage over the casino for his lower SRR. No difference in my view. Just blind and ignorant faith.

Once this forum realizes they are merely just another camp and not the one true religion when it comes to dice, there might be some progress made.

For now, let the "holier than thou" continue. It's the mathematicians' security blanket. Don't want any crying...
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Sabretom2
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:02:10 AM permalink
There doesn't seem to be any word count shortage in these threads dominated by ahigh, so i'll use just one word: Wow!
Ahigh
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:14:09 AM permalink


Wow. (how's that for fewer words?)
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FleaStiff
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:35:29 AM permalink
Blind Faith? A rock group from the sixties with a record album that at the time was a daring pre-pubescent photo.

Now a bout of blind faith and dice results? H'mm? Okay... I'll go along with it, but tell me are we really talking big money here or not? If all we are talking about is a disparity between the ultra ideal mathematical expectation and some real world approximation then big deal. If its a humungous some... then money can be made.
Harley
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:47:36 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The members of this forum are as obsessive over what should be free bets IN THEORY with perfect dice as other forums are about how you throw the dice to be fair to the two opposing camps on the game of craps.

All this does is demonstrate that the bets are not free for any distribution except perfectly flat. Perfectly flat distributions generally don't exist anywhere except in theory.

The challenge is to record outcomes for a stick of dice in a real casino, download the spreadsheet, and see what the edges are in reality of the real world instead of mocking people who believe things that are not compatible with your personal belief system.
...



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My blacklist is a place for the most unethical of Internet casinos. Reasons for inclusion on the blacklist include:

Game results are not consistent with a random game.

I expect all casinos to offer a fair game as evidenced by the fact that the cards or dice observed fall in line with statistical norms. ...



- Who did the observation of casino dice ??!
- does the Wizard give the casinos a pass since he is on their payroll ??!
- is this why he only goes after online casinos ??!!

... or was it just a big assumption .... we know what happens when we assume something .....

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/blacklist/index.php
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
7craps
7craps
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March 16th, 2013 at 12:14:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I created this excel file to show the edges given face weights using the math.

In column B, if you put in values of 1 from B2 through B7, you will see all the edges you know and love down at the bottom.

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/excel/biased_faces_with_line_bet_edges.xlsx

Nice work
I made a few simple additions to your file.

Added new column A for entering the face weights.
all orange cells are those to make changes in.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/biased_faces_with_line_bet_edges3.xlsx

The single bets ev match my Excel sheet and those calculated by WinCraps
The Lays and others do not match.
(I see now 19/41 instead of 20/41 and 19/40 for vig on win only)
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 16th, 2013 at 1:22:54 PM permalink
Somewhere along the line Caesars was mentioned for using "biased dice." And I've said from the beginning (being a long time player at Caesars) that I have seen players using the dice from the same stick have point-7s and then I have seen other players have rolls that last 20 minutes or longer.

I think there is more "bias" in how players throw the dice (bias used loosely here to differentiate lucky shooters from unlucky shooters) than there is in the actual cubes.

Ahigh, why don't you collect data on long-armed players vs. short-armed players, or lefties vs righties, or blue-eyes vs brown eyes?

Show me the biased dice that your stats purport to exist at casinos?
Harley
Harley
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:31:19 PM permalink
AlanMendelson .... we actually have data of how you influenced biased dice tossing from SR1 on table 403 at Caesars (sorry you lost money, but that is what happens with most people when they play with biased dice and an increased house edge) .... you actually did better and lasted longer with your Cross 6 set than random rollers did with the same dice, but the increased house edge eventually got to you also because you were following the standard betting patterns that the Wizard recommends

AHigh shares some of his data more freely .... laws of this great country we live in allow me to be more private if I wish

.... unless the price is right {wink}
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:40:44 PM permalink
Harley, what is your point? Craps is a negative expectation game, so you are not supposed to win -- period.

Anyone who plays craps with the idea of thinking they can beat the game is foolish unless they think they can master/control the dice. So it doesn't matter if the dice are biased or not.

And if the dice were biased to hurt right way shooters (the majority of players) why aren't all of the players betting the darkside? And the reason is darksiders lose just as much as right way shooters lose in the game of craps.

edited to add: So Harley, if I weren't playing at Caesars would I be winning at craps? Were NYNY, MGM and Bellagio right in pushing me out? Would I beat Ahigh as a shooter? LOL

And the next time you watch me play, say hello.
Harley
Harley
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March 16th, 2013 at 2:59:56 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Harley, what is your point? Craps is a negative expectation game, so you are not supposed to win -- period.

Anyone who plays craps with the idea of thinking they can beat the game is foolish unless they think they can master/control the dice. So it doesn't matter if the dice are biased or not. ...



1. So why are you playing the game ?
2. I know several players that win without touching the dice -- they win from just betting including myself, Steve Nelli Method players, TrendSetter players (email is trendsettercraps@gmail.com )

Quote: AlanMendelson

...And if the dice were biased to hurt right way shooters (the majority of players) why aren't all of the players betting the darkside? And the reason is darksiders lose just as much as right way shooters lose in the game of craps.



I think you answered your own question, but if not AHigh does a wonderful explanation why darksiders lose with biased dice:

Quote: Ahigh



Here's an image to explain the exposure. This is modeled from random outcomes from theoretically biased 9,8,8,8,8,9 dice. You can find more detail in other threads.

But this shows the exposure on betting the don't or the don't come every roll and laying max odds compared to the extra edge on the do side in graphical form.

In general, there is $0.20 per roll advantage to the player with 345x lay odds if you can handle volatility. Notice on this chart, it's not until 20,000 rolls that you get enough events for the $0.20 per roll advantage to be seen. IE: the $0.20 exposure is only apparent after a mere 200 hours of play due to the excessive volatility on 345x odds (most individuals would give up, but the house is in it for the long haul).

10x odds has more volatility but there's a whole $0.60 per roll advantage if you're willing to lay max odds on a $5 bet (IE: laying $100 on every four and ten rolled!). $0.60 per roll, yeah, just clean up there. Show us how you're ready to put up a $20,000 bankroll to get $0.60 per roll advantage once you nail a pair of these unfair dice with 4 hours of counting faces.

None of this long term effect means anything to anyone except those who are truly in it for the long term. IE: it affects the edge over very long periods of time on free bets to favor the house on passline bets in theory at the expense of a possible slight exposure on the don't pass for anyone who can withstand ups and downs of tens of thousands of dollars.
...

.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
thecesspit
thecesspit
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:22:35 PM permalink
-If- all dice are randomly biased, and the distribution of bias itself is unbiased, then it doesn't matter if they are biased, as long as that bias is relatively small.

Why? Because if you cannot detect it quickly, the bias that might lead to a pass line being less than -1.41% will be counter-balanced by one that improves the pass line EV. If there's an equal chance of all biases, then the EV is actually unchanged.



Note, that is the casino gives up a 20c advantage per roll, it doesn't matter that it takes 20,000 rolls to see that advantage. The expected value works on every roll. They handle so many more bets than the player does, and if everyone on a certain bet is a loss for them, that will show up.

"IE: the $0.20 exposure is only apparent after a mere 200 hours of play due to the excessive volatility on 345x odds (most individuals would give up, but the house is in it for the long haul)." - this sentence just doesn't follow. The 20c exposure is there everytime. A single line simulation just shows one result. Average this of many many instances, and you'll see a roughly straight line. You could put some error bars around it to show the 1 s.d. variance.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 16th, 2013 at 3:39:33 PM permalink
Harley asks the $60,000 question:

Quote: Harley

1. So why are you playing the game ?



I don't play the game for the fun, comraderie, the chance for variance, or the free booze. I play craps as a test of skill. I think that it is the only test of physical skill in the casino. Poker, video poker, blackjack are all tests of mental skills -- craps is a physical test.

I was into dice setting and dice influencing and dice controlling long before it was the flavor of the week, or of the month.

I know what is involved to have a controlled or influenced shot. I can't do it, but I keep trying. I also doubt others do it. I've only seen two players repeat what I would consider to be a "controlled shot" -- the surgeon from Washington State and the mystery player I saw at Caesars only once years ago.

When I played basketball I had a very high rate for making free-throws, because our coach made us run one mile for every free throw missed in a game. But I know that shooting hoops is a whole lot different than throwing two little cubes.

I play the game as a physical test. I bet on others hoping someone will get lucky.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 17th, 2013 at 2:47:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

this shows the exposure on betting the don't or the don't come every roll and laying max odds compared to the extra edge on the do side in graphical form.

In general, there is $0.20 per roll advantage to the player with 345x lay odds



*not* "a wonderful explanation why darksiders lose with biased dice", Kemo sabe.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ahigh
Ahigh
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March 17th, 2013 at 8:06:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

*not* "a wonderful explanation why darksiders lose with biased dice", Kemo sabe.



Nobody said dark siders lose in the long run of playing exclusively against the theoretically biased dice in question. The question, was not why darksiders lose. The question was why don't you "clean up" on the dark side.

The answer is that you can if you always just play the dark side and you always do your due diligence to ensure you are playing biased dice and you always have enough events to win in the long run (wade through the volatility) you can average $.20 to $.60 per roll with 345x to 10x odds.

What part did you not understand in the answer? The point that is being made is that the exposure isn't on the dark side. It's actually, and very ironically, in the field!

A very intelligent poster would be asking "WHY DON'T YOU CLEAN UP IN THE FIELD?" Not the dark side.

The dark side question has been asked and answered many many many many times. You just happened not to be paying attention, and it seems that you are still having a hard time understanding both the question and the answer.

I used to take this same position as you as evidenced from the post about this on my forum in September 2011. Then I did a bunch of work instead of saying "not a wonderful explanation."

Why don't you do your presentation how it should be "EASY" to "CLEAN UP ON THE DARK SIDE" since you believe that it should be easy, if that is a correct assumption from your response.

Who knows? Maybe you're right! Maybe you can find biased dice in less than 8 hours of samples! That would be a place to start.

The truth is that you have a dismissive response. One that I am familiar with because I have used it myself.

Do the work!
aahigh.com
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 17th, 2013 at 8:20:14 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The truth is that you have a dismissive response.



I have been feeling a little dismissive of Kemo Sabe, is all. This is all I can muster since I vowed not to go ape s**t. Keeping it to the Statler and Waldorf level.

I've paid some attention to your Field-bet-being-better theory, with biased dice. As I've mentioned before, that you can't go darkside on the bets in the middle of the table keeps players from benefiting the way the casino does on certain trends as well [random or otherwise]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:07:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


Do the work!



I may have missed the post... have you tracked and determined there were biased dice at any casino in LV and posted your graphic analysis here? Please give the link or repost so I can take a look.

Also, I might have missed the response to the question I asked before: if the 6-side is heavier why do 6 and 1 show up so many times? Why wouldn't the most prolific roll be 1-1 if gravity did it's job, which is a "neutral" number for right way players except for the come-out roll?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 17th, 2013 at 9:28:26 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

How come that never happens to me?



I tried to give you some lessons.... You saw the general technique at the golf course restaurant... You need to play to your strengths.... "WIZARD!!!!!" might attract some attention.....
Ahigh
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:07:46 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I may have missed the post... have you tracked and determined there were biased dice at any casino in LV and posted your graphic analysis here? Please give the link or repost so I can take a look.

Also, I might have missed the response to the question I asked before: if the 6-side is heavier why do 6 and 1 show up so many times? Why wouldn't the most prolific roll be 1-1 if gravity did it's job, which is a "neutral" number for right way players except for the come-out roll?



The original post in this thread is the best evidence I have, and no it is not conclusive, merely supporting the theory outlined by Harley.

I have more samples that I have shared with Harley and I have chosen not to go public with. I am not naming the casino because I am choosing not to do that.

Re-read the original post in this thread, maybe. If you still have quesitons let me know.

About how the six and one face are coming up heavier, I do not know. Tupp had an explanation that made sense, but I had this same question myself and it got me stuck for a while saying "BULLSHIT" to Harley.

But that's why I created the theoretical dice first and THEN after that I went out and started profiling dice to see if they matched the theoretically ideal biased dice to create extra edge on the passline without creating exposure in other places that was easily exploited.

So far the evidence supports rather than rejects Harley's theories.

This is all a recap of this whole thread though. You may want to re-read it.
aahigh.com
superrick
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:08:43 AM permalink
Quote:




AlanMendelson
I may have missed the post... have you tracked and determined there were biased dice at any casino in LV and posted your graphic analysis here? Please give the link or repost so I can take a look.

Also, I might have missed the response to the question I asked before: if the 6-side is heavier why do 6 and 1 show up so many times? Why wouldn't the most prolific roll be 1-1 if gravity did it's job, which is a "neutral" number for right way players except for the come-out roll?



Did you ever hear of paging back, you just might have missed a few other things along the way too!

So Alan basically after calling Ahigh and Harley nuts or damn close to it, you want them to come up with a system, so you can go into a casino and start winning money off their hard work and everybody else that has contributed to finding out if these dice do exist.
It’s not enough that they gave you a warning about them? I don’t even see why you of all people on this board is even questioning them about what they have found, because you believe that the fact that NV has no laws on their books about the dice is sufficient enough for all the players that come to our state to gamble.

In your mind there is no need to have laws in place like Colorado, NJ, or Pennsylvania for the dice they use in the casinos, nor is there any need to have those rules spell out what the casinos can and can’t do!

Quote:



Alan
I don't play the game for the fun, comraderie, the chance for variance, or the free booze. I play craps as a test of skill. I think that it is the only test of physical skill in the casino. Poker, video poker, blackjack are all tests of mental skills -- craps is a physical test.



With the above statement, you would be a lot better off playing at Jokers Wild, were you could test your skill or lack of it for $1 a round! I think the guys that I know that don’t even pick-up the dice and still win would have a problem with you’re statement about the game of craps not needing mental skills, and being all physical skills!

Quote:


Alan
I play the game as a physical test. I bet on others hoping someone will get lucky.



Spoken like a true gambler! You’re kind of contradicting yourself on that statement, if you were looking for a physical test then why in the world would you be betting on other players? There is nothing physical about that; that come from you’re need to gamble.

Everybody wants the magic bullet, which will win them money without doing the work to get it. I prospect for gold, when I’m hunting for meteorites and will never tell anybody where I found gold. There is no need to start another gold rush here in NV. The same thing applies to the tables we play on, or how to beat the bias dice.
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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March 17th, 2013 at 10:11:07 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I tried to give you some lessons.... You saw the general technique at the golf course restaurant... You need to play to your strengths.... "WIZARD!!!!!" might attract some attention.....



I'm a hopeless student. As I've said before, I have a certain magnetism around women. Unfortunately, it is the repelling kind.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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