Moving out to play

Quote: AxelWolf

Hopefully for his sake he would drift into other aspects of AP. There's a multitude of different things available everything inducing, bingo, slots, VP, roulette, keno, sports, online stuff that comes up you never seen before or could even imagine.... "the gigs ARE always different if you want. I would never suggest anyone play the KJ way. Hopefully he wouldn't either. However enjoyable to him, I'm fairly certain he's one of a very, very few AP's that actually think that way. Not to mention something unknown could happen killing counting opportunities.

I expect counting opportunities will disappear in the next 20 years, because I think there won't be too many physical card games by that point. Once everything's virtual and the software running the RNG can reshuffle after every hand, all of the physical exploits of card games (card counting, hole carding, edge sorting, etc.) become impossible. The only possible edge is from depth-charging and I doubt that will be financially feasible.

Quote:

One of the biggest myths about AP's is t if they have what it takes to be a successful AP they can run a fortune 500 company or some crap like that.

I never said anything about running a Fortune 500 company. Senior leadership at a large corporation is an entirely different skill set than what APs use. I was focusing on detail orientation and numeracy under the assumption that all APs exhibited those traits.

Maybe I'm giving APs too much credit. If it's possible to be a successful AP without actually having good attention to detail or understanding numbers, then none of the more-lucrative careers involving detail orientation or numeracy would be a feasible alternative. So let me amend that -- if you do have good attention to detail and good understanding of numbers, I believe AP is not the most lucrative entrepreneurial career you could choose.

In fact, I would be interested in hearing your take on what combination of character traits would indicate that AP is, in fact, the ideal job for someone. What are your thoughts on that?

Axel has said many times and he's right, you don't have to be great or really that Good at math to be a good AP (sometimes helps to have a friend who is.) you can't be scared of numbers and immediately shy away from it, have to have solid 7th-8th grade arithmetic for sure.

Quote: MathExtremist

I expect counting opportunities will disappear in the next 20 years, because I think there won't be too many physical card games by that point. Once everything's virtual and the software running the RNG can reshuffle after every hand, all of the physical exploits of card games (card counting, hole carding, edge sorting, etc.) become impossible. The only possible edge is from depth-charging and I doubt that will be financially feasible.

I never said anything about running a Fortune 500 company. Senior leadership at a large corporation is an entirely different skill set than what APs use. I was focusing on detail orientation and numeracy under the assumption that all APs exhibited those traits.

Maybe I'm giving APs too much credit. If it's possible to be a successful AP without actually having good attention to detail or understanding numbers, then none of the more-lucrative careers involving detail orientation or numeracy would be a feasible alternative. So let me amend that -- if you do have good attention to detail and good understanding of numbers, I believe AP is not the most lucrative entrepreneurial career you could choose.

In fact, I would be interested in hearing your take on what combination of character traits would indicate that AP is, in fact, the ideal job for someone. What are your thoughts on that?

Honestly I could train a monkey to be a good AP. Basically you just have to have good memory skills. Some problems could be visual. My wife can't play for very long hours before her eyes get tired or she yawns every 20 seconds. The biggest problems are Money Management and your Earn Rate Per Hour. I still know great players all over town who crush all games but are always broke and owe out because they can't manage money! First learn how to manage your money and after that go and crush the Casinos... Rinse and Repeat. After some time you will be able to go on vacation anywhere you want or take a month or two off as well. It doesn't hurt to get on a team if you can break in or find a good woman who likes to work, eat and sleep. So many other things to list. The OP needs to just get out there and do it and get on with it and learn and grow or die from the experiences!

I think to be a successful Ap you have to have a burning desire. When I was starting out I was living breathing and sleeping Ap,I thought about nothing else.You don't have to be a mensa candidate, you just have to work really hard.If you don't have the desire ,even if you're a genius you probably won't succeed.

Quote: ZenKinG

ive had a bit of bad luck

My last two cents... GET AWAY FROM THIS BS! There is no such thing as Bad/Good Luck or Luck Period! You think the Casinos have made all the money they have made because of Good Luck? Get that out of your vocabulary!! The only reason you keep it in your vocabulary is for cover when your talking to the Employees or Ploppies!

One other thing I forgot. You win 8k on BJ a couple of times in a few short sessions and your gonna run into some trouble but if you hit 8k jackpots on machines and they pay you everytime without blinking or thinking twice. Food For Thought.

Quote: monet0412

Honestly I could train a monkey to be a good AP. Basically you just have to have good memory skills. Some problems could be visual. My wife can't play for very long hours before her eyes get tired or she yawns every 20 seconds. The biggest problems are Money Management and your Earn Rate Per Hour. I still know great players all over town who crush all games but are always broke and owe out because they can't manage money!

Can you quantify that? What is the earn rate per hour for those great players, and how many hours per month are they actually playing? It doesn't mean much if your earn rate is $200/hour but you can only sustain that for 30 minutes. I'd like to know how much these players are actually blowing per month due to poor money management.

Quote: Zcore13

And off all the people you'very ever met in your life, how many have done this? Actually, I'll extend it to anyone you'very ever met and anyone you'very ever heard about?


ZCore13

As someone who spent most of the last thirty years in the bar/ nightclub business, quite few. A properly run bar/ dangerous is akin to owning a printing press.
Sure some people fail, but more succeed. Having done both, I'd wager that making a living owning a bar is more likely to lead to success than being a solo card counter.

Well, again, im not looking for advice on what ELSE I could do with my life, all the stuff everyone mentioned, I already thought about in my mind. I have thought about long term plans already as well, believe me, as well as potentially finding a girl later on before im in mid 30s living in a shack alone. Right now, after considering all the other options, the best decision is to get out of my house.

With that being said, I have a solid plan to attack vegas that will allow me to play for a long time or at least I hope so. No, i dont plan on just pure wonging in vegas as Im aware the surveillance, especially at aria is top notch. Ill save the pure wonging for the smaller chains. But besides, with my short session and aggressive approach, im not too worried about surveillance as many casinos need at least 3 shoes to evaluate a player. Also, referring to what AxlWolf said, no, i dont have any of that flashy red light fever of vegas or any of that. I have been playing solidly for a while now, i have great money management, and I never buy things i dont need or have ever in my life blew through money like some kids do. I grew up with strict parents that taught me the value of money i guess or maybe it's just a natural trait of mine. Im also proud to admit I never lost discipline one time at the tables and ever increased my bet more than what my bankroll could handle at the risk. With the variance i've seen so far through all the hours ive logged, there's nothing that will shock me anymore and if I made it through traveling 1.5 hours to games even after all this variance, i dont see anything throwing me off my game living in such a close proximity to so many casinos.

I have the desire and discipline to move out there and AGAIN this was not a question of what else I can do with my life. Right now the plan is to attack the city and i have a nice plan of attack written up in a word document. Of course nothing is set in stone and any AP has to adjust every day of how they will play and I already thought of that as well, but the word document is more of a guide to keep me organized of how I plan to play.

I dont think I fit many of the past players who also had the same idea of going to vegas with a 'counting' dream'. This is not some sort of spectacle im seeking but rather the idea of needing to move out of my house and cutting travel between games and so vegas fits the bill for now even with them having some of the worst games of any city. But what Vegas lacks in 'quality' of games, they make up for it in the 'quantity' of games and that can't be underestimated. As many successful counters can attest to, its sometimes better to have a place that lets you play a worse game than being able to play a high SCORE game of 150 or so that will kick you out after a couple of visits. And because of the 'quantity' aspect of vegas i can move around a lot with short sessions that will do exactly that, which is being able to play lots of hours even if it's a worse game as well as cutting travel expenses.

But again, this thread was to hope to get advice on where else would be a good moving spot to play besides sin city, and not many have tried to answer that. I appreciate all the other responses and the advice from much older people with much more experience than me and hope you guys know i didnt just ignore your posts and that i will keep it in the back of my mind. What would be some really great advice would be the best and safest parts of vegas I should look to live in, as from what I've seen so far the cheaper studios either all have a lot of crime around them or full of roaches and incompetent management.

Where are the best studios for your money?

Quote: onenickelmiracle

There are so many bar rescue episodes where people thought buying a bar was easy with no experience and there goes everything.

Yep, and their are many Auction War shows where the buyers find gold.
They are scripted.reality shows. Entertainment first, reality last.

Quote: billryan

Living in the $500 a month studios, he'll be able to have a different girl every night, all for the price of a ten dollar rock. Plenty to choose from.

A successful AP should have no problem banking money and when it's time to retire, they should have cash to open their own business. A decent sports bar can be bought for $300,000 in Vegas, half that elsewhere.

Are u sure? Only $10??? I strongly doubt that. If u can show me some decent ones, I will buy u two (2).

I laugh every time I see these hourly numbers. It isn't that players aren't making 100/200 an hour on plays... It is just that it isn't the norm. My assessment of a great player is someone who has been in town 10/20 years plus with no job or other source of income and is still in action. Realistically, most players make 8 to 75 dollars per hour on plays. I'd roughly estimate that 20 dollars per hour is doing really well. The main problem as I stated is management. All players I know have had bankrolls over 100 to 500k but can't hold on. It isn't long before some vice or they are playing some carnival game way outside of the bankroll and things come crashing down. Oddly enough all of these players still manage to be in action, pay the bills, and eat steak and lobster any time they like. The downside is they have no safety nets in place. Great players but really no money management skills in any aspect of life. Only my observation and opinion and doesn't really amount to jack squat!

Quote: speedycrap

Are u sure? Only $10??? I strongly doubt that. If u can show me some decent ones, I will buy u two (2).

Where did I mention decent? You get what you pay for,and living in a a crack hotel, you get what you get.

Quote: monet0412

Realistically, most players make 8 to 75 dollars per hour on plays. I'd roughly estimate that 20 dollars per hour is doing really well.

Is that $20/hour only while playing, or is that an average that includes all of the playing hours plus all the non-playing overhead to find those plays? How many hours per year does a typical AP work, and how many hours of that is actually spent playing?

Quote: MathExtremist

Is that $20/hour only while playing, or is that an average that includes all of the playing hours plus all the non-playing overhead to find those plays? How many hours per year does a typical AP work, and how many hours of that is actually spent playing?

Netting 30k a year is doing very well. This is after paying all expenses and tipping. The problem with you number guys is that you want to itemize every little detail. I deal in cash. This game isn't like football. You don't get paid for yardage. At the end of the year I count up all my dough and that is how I know where I am at.

Quote: monet0412

Netting 30k a year is doing very well. This is after paying all expenses and tipping. The problem with you number guys is that you want to itemize every little detail. I deal in cash. This game isn't like football. You don't get paid for yardage. At the end of the year I count up all my dough and that is how I know where I am at.

Monet0412 no disrespect but
Most of the aps i know make over 100k a year,are you talking about poker players?

Quote: Hunterhill

Monet0412 no disrespect but
Most of the aps i know make over 100k a year,are you talking about poker players?

Your talking about the top tier of players. You are not talking about your local player in Vegas who has been around for 20 years plus. Your dealing with the 1% and 2%, where I am talking about your average player who can beat the game or games and does it year in and year out. Your talking about the guys running the crews and not the guys playing for them making them all the dough with 50 player cards per house.

Honestly and I mean no offense but your saying that all the APs you know make 2000 dollars in cash per week and that is Fantasy Island in my book! Of course if I am wrong and all the APs including yourself are making 2k and over a week plus... sign me up! I have over 100k bankroll that I can invest but I will be very skeptical until I start to see the yearly profits over and over and over again. Perhaps you and all the APs have the Super Hosts in all the joints and your getting all this dough on the backside. I can believe that but it isn't everyday common knowledge.

I just bought a jacket at nike in forum shops cash. I am ballin

I didn't think 100k/year was "top tier" for AP. I'd say that's probably a rough average for professional APs.

Quote: RS

I didn't think 100k/year was "top tier" for AP. I'd say that's probably a rough average for professional APs.

Alright... I give. It seems that any AP that posts on here except myself is living the dream while I continue to grind out a meager existence :) !!

2000 cash a week after expenses and you get all that dough on the backside... must be nice, real nice!

Quote: monet0412

Your talking about the top tier of players. You are not talking about your local player in Vegas who has been around for 20 years plus. Your dealing with the 1% and 2%, where I am talking about your average player who can beat the game or games and does it year in and year out. Your talking about the guys running the crews and not the guys playing for them making them all the dough with 50 player cards per house.

Honestly and I mean no offense but your saying that all the APs you know make 2000 dollars in cash per week and that is Fantasy Island in my book! Of course if I am wrong and all the APs including yourself are making 2k and over a week plus... sign me up! I have over 100k bankroll that I can invest but I will be very skeptical until I start to see the yearly profits over and over and over again. Perhaps you and all the APs have the Super Hosts in all the joints and your getting all this dough on the backside. I can believe that but it isn't everyday common knowledge.

I only loosely associate with about 10 other Aps and yes they all make over 2k a week.Most of the players I know don't even have hosts,they play unrated.
You sound like you're talking machine plays,I only know a couple machine players the rest play table games.

Quote: djatc

I just bought a jacket at nike in forum shops cash. I am ballin

Keep working hard and you will be able to afford lunch at Cheesecake Factory soon!

Quote: Boz

Keep working hard and you will be able to afford lunch at Cheesecake Factory soon!

Olive garden is better. Unlimited breadsticks

What I like is that the yearly average income for the USA is around 52k but RS and others state that your average hard working AP is making 100k easy. Mind Boggling for me but... ok, you guys win. This is per household mind you ... as an individual it is more like 30k per year gross.

Quote: monet0412

... ok, you guys win. .

Not always, sometimes they break even.

I have to say ZK, from this and other forums I've seen you on, you ask a question, but refuse to acknowledge or argue any answer that isn't exactly what you want, even the good ones mixed in with the garbage. If you already know all the answers and have a bulletproof plan, why ask the question?

30K doesn't leave much after paying living expenses.
My rent, all in, is about $1250-$1300. My car lease and insurance runs close to $400. Food is $400. Tipping about $200.
That's over $25,000 just there. Throw in a cell phone and insurance and you are closing in on $3,000 a month.
I am in process of buying a place so my monthly nut should go down a few hundred when I do. Still wouldn't want to scrape by on thirty grand.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Do not mean to patronize by saying this. I think you should get a job valet parking in a non-casino hotel. Visible employment, rent payer, easy hours at least part time, great exercise when your main activity involves sitting on your ass, make some contacts. See what's around, meet some people.
Just a thought.

A good thought though. After all, there is the IRS, subsequent career shifts, etc. Its like having a job collecting payment at a parking lot when your real job is providing security to a dumb drug dealer. (Breaking Bad).

Quote: FleaStiff

A good thought though. After all, there is the IRS, subsequent career shifts, etc. Its like having a job collecting payment at a parking lot when your real job is providing security to a dumb drug dealer. (Breaking Bad).

That was the point, though unwelcome. A good cover.job.for AP'S and helps . stretch the bankroll while getting started.

Quote: MathExtremist

Advantage play is the opposite -- it doesn't produce anything and the casinos definitely don't want you to be there.

My advantage play often does produce for the casinos, and they should want me there. I often play high jackpot progressives on lower-based games. They make money off me, even when I have positive EV. They should love me. If they had any brains. Plus, as is obvious, I am charming.

Quote: mcallister3200

I have to say ZK, from this and other forums I've seen you on, you ask a question, but refuse to acknowledge or argue any answer that isn't exactly what you want, even the good ones mixed in with the garbage. If you already know all the answers and have a bulletproof plan, why ask the question?

That's not true, i thanked everyone for their answers and will keep it in mind. The problem is, my original post had nothing to do with the advice being given. I asked about ideas where I can move to play besides vegas and everyone went on about what career i should choose instead lol. That's why i guess you could say i 'refuesed to acknowledge' the answers given.

And if someone asks what the best system to use is.......the best answer is nof "martingale" or any other system. A better answer is "systems don't work".


You can take people's advice or not. But I know it's a whole hell of a lot easier being in LV if you at least get a part time job for starters so you can get a feel for the ebb and flow of professional play and what all is required.

Your game plan may seem spotless and perfect and all that, but it's not, unless you've actually been here and played under the conditions. The game plan works if it goes as planned. You could easily get 86'd from Caesars properties the first time you sit down to play (okay, not immediately). Or you could end up getting 86'd from Stations or Boyd or wherever else. It might not even be in your control -- do you know which pit bosses to avoid or not to avoid? Which properties are sweaty and which aren't?

It's a lot more difficult to accurately make a game plan and say, "I can get away with X-Y spread at casino Z" or whatever else, if you haven't even played at these properties for more than a tiny bit of time. Guess what, they'll start to recognize you if you play with any amount of frequency....and averaging 4 hours a day of play, that's gonna happen fairly quickly.


Do as you wish. Just remember: it's not gonna be as easy as you think it'll be.

Quote: bobbartop

My advantage play often does produce for the casinos, and they should want me there. I often play high jackpot progressives on lower-based games. They make money off me, even when I have positive EV. They should love me. If they had any brains. Plus, as is obvious, I am charming.

When you win, do you feed back a huge portion into the slots? Do you splurge on an extravagant meal in their restaurant? Do you buy some horrifically overpriced Rolex in their store?

If the answer is no to all these, I'm going to go ahead and challenge your statement that "They should love me. If they had any brains."

Quote: MathExtremist

One last point. With AP, there is no meaningful upside, no chance for a home run. Your only source of revenue is playing and there are no residuals. Unless you're going to write books or teach seminars, if you stop playing, you stop earning. If you create something as part of a business, on the other hand, you can sell or license it for a much larger amount than it cost you to create. I have personally done that, and that's the entire basis of the tech startup industry. As a business major this isn't news to you. The point is, that option isn't even available with AP...

I agree a ton with most of your post. This, however, I do disagree with. Counting itself won't lead you to a "home run" so to say, but having your feet on the ground and being in different casinos every single day is a HUGE necessity to come across other much bigger/better plays. I started out as just a card counter and didn't get in to more until I personally just came across better opportunities when I was there to count. I saw the opportunities and decided to go research/learn how to play them and found out the edge was WAYYYYYYYYY bigger than counting cards. From that experience, and counting, I've now grown to playing games with EV's averaging around $1,000/hour... I think I'll take that over the "average" successful entrepreneur. Also, I think the average successful entrepreneur is someone who is cash flow positive, which could mean they're making next to nothing but they're not losing money. Not losing money is the first step in any business and often takes most a couple years to get cash flow positive.

Quote: MathExtremist

...I expect a lot of pushback from the APs on this site who do make a lot of money on the grounds that making that money qualifies AP as a "real business", but it's inarguable that the average successful AP earns less money than the average successful entrepreneur. And so does the most successful AP compared to the most successful entrepreneur. Which would you rather be?

I also think you're comparing a bit of apples and oranges and ignoring your sampling size. How many people really try to be the top AP's in the world? Hundreds? Okay... How many people try to be the top entrepreneurs in the world? Hundreds of millions or more? The truth is 99% of people (and AP's) don't really know what's at the top of the AP chain because we hold those top secret things as long as possible. Remember when people thought AP'ing was just counting cards because the machine players and hole carders kept their mouths shut? It was like a whole new world that was previously undiscovered when some of these plays started coming to light, and you must realize that that is still happening today. We don't know what we don't know =)... but with just the knowledge that I have right now, I'd still be willing to wager the average TOP AP's do just as well (if not better) than the average TOP entrepreneur. One SMALL example is Don Johnson... Making around $15 million over a half a year period. Pretty sure that would beat out a lot of very very successful entrepreneurs.

For ZK, I could go on for a while about different things to be careful of and check out, but I think the summation of all of those pieces of advice could be given simply by stating the following: Find some local AP contacts in Vegas and meet up with them for a beer/dinner/etc. Try not to ask for their "secret places" with good plays, but in general ask them how being a professional in that region is. Ask them about their day to days. Ask them about when they moved out there, did they get a part time job just in case it didn't work out, etc.

As RS kind of pointed out, you more than likely haven't played there with enough frequency to understand all of the things that could happen to blow your perfect plan of attack out of the water. You don't know what you don't know, but someone else has lived that experience and has that knowledge. Find them and tap in to that knowledge of how to break the initial barrier. With the knowledge from someone that's already done it, that will up your chances for success dramatically.

Lastly, I guess I can't go without adding this... If you're playing for any kind of decent money (low to mid blacks as top bets even) you're not going to be able to get away with always splitting 10's and doubling A-9, and using "all" index plays. You really need to be careful and willing to give up just a little EV in exchange for longevity. If you're going pro, LONGEVITY is what your game should be about now, NOT just pure EV.

Quote: sabre

When you win, do you feed back a huge portion into the slots? Do you splurge on an extravagant meal in their restaurant? Do you buy some horrifically overpriced Rolex in their store?

If the answer is no to all these, I'm going to go ahead and challenge your statement that "They should love me. If they had any brains."

Challenge noted. But when I win, the money does not come from the casino. They do nothing but make money off my play. And if I tweek my playing strategy to adjust for the higher jackpot, they make even more from me. They should love me. Did I mention that I'm charming?

Quote: Romes

I agree a ton with most of your post. This, however, I do disagree with. Counting itself won't lead you to a "home run" so to say, but having your feet on the ground and being in different casinos every single day is a HUGE necessity to come across other much bigger/better plays. I started out as just a card counter and didn't get in to more until I personally just came across better opportunities when I was there to count. I saw the opportunities and decided to go research/learn how to play them and found out the edge was WAYYYYYYYYY bigger than counting cards. From that experience, and counting, I've now grown to playing games with EV's averaging around $1,000/hour... I think I'll take that over the "average" successful entrepreneur.

Sure, but you're not an average AP so that's like comparing McDonald's to Morton's. How sustainable are those hourly rates? I mean, if you're a partner at a NYC law firm you can bill at $1,000/hour all year and gross $2M just in billings, without even counting the upside. As an AP, are you working as much as 500 hours/year at that $1000/hour rate? If not, citing to a marginal rate of $1000 is misleading, wouldn't you say? I mean, finding a dollar on the ground and picking it up has a marginal rate of over $1000/hour too, but it's not like that's repeatable.

Quote:

but with just the knowledge that I have right now, I'd still be willing to wager the average TOP AP's do just as well (if not better) than the average TOP entrepreneur. One SMALL example is Don Johnson... Making around $15 million over a half a year period. Pretty sure that would beat out a lot of very very successful entrepreneurs.

Sure it would, but you're off by at least an order of magnitude vis-a-vis the ceiling on entrepreneurship. I worked with a company in Seattle started by two entrepreneurs in 2011. They sold it a year later for $500 million. Upside. :)

Quote: Romes

For ZK, I could go on for a while about different things to be careful of and check out, but I think the summation of all of those pieces of advice could be given simply by stating the following: Find some local AP contacts in Vegas and meet up with them for a beer/dinner/etc. Try not to ask for their "secret places" with good plays, but in general ask them how being a professional in that region is. Ask them about their day to days. Ask them about when they moved out there, did they get a part time job just in case it didn't work out, etc.

As RS kind of pointed out, you more than likely haven't played there with enough frequency to understand all of the things that could happen to blow your perfect plan of attack out of the water. You don't know what you don't know, but someone else has lived that experience and has that knowledge. Find them and tap in to that knowledge of how to break the initial barrier. With the knowledge from someone that's already done it, that will up your chances for success dramatically.

So this is interesting advice. There is a total addressable market (TAM) in any industry. Are you suggesting that the TAM for APs in Las Vegas is so big that it can handle many more competitors? Normally competitors for a scarce resource don't willingly help each other in the way you're suggesting -- and the AP-able EV available on any given day is a scarce resource, limited both by hours and maximum allowable wagers. Cooperation is useful when building a market, where the joint actions of competing companies increase the actual size of the pie, but I can't imagine additional APs in town would accomplish that. Is the AP community different in that regard?

Quote: MathExtremist

Sure it would, but you're off by at least an order of magnitude vis-a-vis the ceiling on entrepreneurship. I worked with a company in Seattle started by two entrepreneurs in 2011. They sold it a year later for $500 million. Upside. :)

But then they blew it all when some hipster in town suckered then into sponsoring a Nirvana reunion tour. They didn't realize Kurt was dead and lost it all. Now they are trying to find the magic again and realized they just got lucky once and it doesn't always happen that way.

Always easy to pick out the winners instead of the thousands of tech startups that went broke. And they were all headed by so called book "Entrepreneurs" without a clue in the business world. But you can also blame the investors who blindly give them money and fall for the gimmicks. Meanwhile they sit in the coffee shop for hours a day on the net and call it research.

I think if you ask the APs for help, and aren't a complete disk, you"ll get some. No one will tell you their secret sauce, but they will tell you some places to avoid, at a minimum.
A number of people have shown me some vp plays I wouldn't have thought of, and others have helped with slot clubs.Others have offered help but I'm waiting a bit to work with them. House hunting takes a lot of time.
I found a side gig that pays well and only takes up a few hours a week. Unfortunately, it's not really scaleable. While I can make full-time money working part time, I can't work full-time and make serious money.

Quote: MathExtremist

Sure, but you're not an average AP so that's like comparing McDonald's to Morton's. How sustainable are those hourly rates? I mean, if you're a partner at a NYC law firm you can bill at $1,000/hour all year and gross $2M just in billings, without even counting the upside...

So you think I'm above the average AP (much love <3) but you don't think a partner at an NYC law firm isn't above the average successful entrepreneur? ...Again, I think we need to better define BOTH averages as I disagree with that =P. From my experience/perspective most entrepreneurs simply attempt to get cash flow positive for the first couple YEARS of their business.

Quote: MathExtremist

...As an AP, are you working as much as 500 hours/year at that $1000/hour rate? If not, citing to a marginal rate of $1000 is misleading, wouldn't you say? I mean, finding a dollar on the ground and picking it up has a marginal rate of over $1000/hour too, but it's not like that's repeatable.

I'll actually be very interested to see my personal hours when we put our reports together later this month. I'd say I averaged about 25 hours per month, which would equate to approximately 300 hours for the year. You forget about having teammates =). I manage our team and we leverage teammates and pay them a cut of the win after a certain time cycle is reached. ALL of us have regular 9-5 jobs and still we'll manage to put in a ton of hours this year (~1,000). So yes, given the fact that I even have my 9-5 I'd say it's quite plausible for a "full time" AP to keep their hours quite high, in many ways.

Quote: MathExtremist

Sure it would, but you're off by at least an order of magnitude vis-a-vis the ceiling on entrepreneurship. I worked with a company in Seattle started by two entrepreneurs in 2011. They sold it a year later for $500 million. Upside. :)

Look at the risk involved in starting a company vs AP'ing as well. I'm certainly not saying risk isn't involved in BOTH situations, but with AP so long as you're properly bankrolled your risk is really actually relatively small. With a company, sometimes the risk is being OVER funded where you're burning through capital without the business being cash flow positive and you essentially double down on your losses. i.e. Growing too wide to quickly and sinking due to your own weight.

I like this discussion. I think there's a lot to be said for on both sides. I can think of a lot more points for your argument, as well as mine, but where would be the fun in telling you yours =D. Hah.

Quote: MathExtremist

So this is interesting advice. There is a total addressable market (TAM) in any industry. Are you suggesting that the TAM for APs in Las Vegas is so big that it can handle many more competitors? Normally competitors for a scarce resource don't willingly help each other in the way you're suggesting -- and the AP-able EV available on any given day is a scarce resource, limited both by hours and maximum allowable wagers. Cooperation is useful when building a market, where the joint actions of competing companies increase the actual size of the pie, but I can't imagine additional APs in town would accomplish that. Is the AP community different in that regard?

Well, with certain things that involve the law of large numbers, yes. Teaming is ALWAYS beneficial to the AP in that regard. If he really is a proven good counter, he should have no problem hitting up the message boards, posting an online add, or even spotting other AP's/counters to meet up and chat with. Let alone again if he's a good counter and proves himself to a well established AP/counter/team, then he could possibly join a team to help mitigate his risk in the move out there, as well as potentially find a cheap place to say, other part time work, etc, etc. In doing so he would have access to all of the knowledge I previously mentioned and be getting paid to learn it. After a bit of time, if the OP still chooses, he could then strike out on his own... After successfully jumping the hurdle of the initial move and getting settled in to the town and learning what he can get away with, with who, and where... etc.

Quote: Romes

For ZK, I could go on for a while about different things to be careful of and check out, but I think the summation of all of those pieces of advice could be given simply by stating the following: Find some local AP contacts in Vegas and meet up with them for a beer/dinner/etc. Try not to ask for their "secret places" with good plays, but in general ask them how being a professional in that region is. Ask them about their day to days. Ask them about when they moved out there, did they get a part time job just in case it didn't work out, etc.

As RS kind of pointed out, you more than likely haven't played there with enough frequency to understand all of the things that could happen to blow your perfect plan of attack out of the water. You don't know what you don't know, but someone else has lived that experience and has that knowledge. Find them and tap in to that knowledge of how to break the initial barrier. With the knowledge from someone that's already done it, that will up your chances for success dramatically.

Lastly, I guess I can't go without adding this... If you're playing for any kind of decent money (low to mid blacks as top bets even) you're not going to be able to get away with always splitting 10's and doubling A-9, and using "all" index plays. You really need to be careful and willing to give up just a little EV in exchange for longevity. If you're going pro, LONGEVITY is what your game should be about now, NOT just pure EV.

Appreciate the advice as always Romes, but again you and others fail to respond to what my initial thread was about, maybe because i wrote too much and everyone just skimmed through it. Yes vegas advice is good and i welcome all advice on vegas, but the point of the thread was more about, WHERE ELSE would I be able to move to that would be convenient, less heat, longevity, profit, etc for a pure counter? I mean im close to PA, i could just move there, but like I said I think i burned my face out there enough already, better for a fresh start. I hope that small garbage sweat shop didnt put me in OSN though, that would be a bummer.

Quote: Romes

I'll actually be very interested to see my personal hours when we put our reports together later this month. I'd say I averaged about 25 hours per month, which would equate to approximately 300 hours for the year. You forget about having teammates =). I manage our team and we leverage teammates and pay them a cut of the win after a certain time cycle is reached. ALL of us have regular 9-5 jobs and still we'll manage to put in a ton of hours this year (~1,000). So yes, given the fact that I even have my 9-5 I'd say it's quite plausible for a "full time" AP to keep their hours quite high, in many ways.

I like this discussion. I think there's a lot to be said for on both sides. I can think of a lot more points for your argument, as well as mine, but where would be the fun in telling you yours =D. Hah.

25 hours/month isn't much time at all. You spend more than 25 hours every month just eating. Presumably you wouldn't consider your 300 hours/year full-time, but if you earned your proposed $1000 rate for that 300 hours, that's $300,000/year. Does your 9-5 pay you even half that much? Most 9-5 jobs in Las Vegas don't. Are you making a bad financial decision by keeping your day job vs. increasing your AP hours? This isn't a hypothetical point -- I made precisely the same decision when I chose to turn my side consulting practice into a full-time business. In the final analysis, my self-employment revenues were projected to be higher than my salary+benefits+stock plan from the big corporation, and that's the way it turned out. Is that true for your situation as well?

Because, as I understand it, one of the draws of the AP lifestyle is working for yourself and setting your own hours. By holding a 9-5 job and doing AP on the side, you're clearly choosing a path of increased revenue, decreased risk, and decreased free time when compared to that archetypical AP lifestyle. I'm not saying it's a bad decision, but it seems like many starry-eyed AP novices don't want to be professional gamblers on the side while they're working an office or shift job. They dream of winning huge amounts of money in a short period of time and rolling around town like CeeLo Green before he got arrested for possession.

Happy CeeLo:


Sad CeeLo:

Quote: Boz

But then they blew it all when some hipster in town suckered then into sponsoring a Nirvana reunion tour. They didn't realize Kurt was dead and lost it all. Now they are trying to find the magic again and realized they just got lucky once and it doesn't always happen that way.

Perhaps you are under the mistaken impression that I was inventing a hypothetical startup and a hypothetical $500M exit. Perhaps that explains the fact that you invented some hypothetical fable about hipsters, dead rock stars, and wholesale fraud.

Except you were just spinning a yarn just then. I wasn't.

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2012/01/double-down-interactive-sold-for-500m.html

Quote: MathExtremist

25 hours/month isn't much time at all...

That was my point. While I personally only put in 300 hours, I'm getting credited for nearly 1,000 hours due to having teammates I've trained taking a well earned but much smaller cut of the pie. Thus, when they're working, I'm "working" without having to be there. So while I personally put in 300 hours (physically) my hours for this year are ~1,000... With a full time job.

Quote: MathExtremist

Does your 9-5 pay you even half that much? Most 9-5 jobs in Las Vegas don't. Are you making a bad financial decision by keeping your day job vs. increasing your AP hours? This isn't a hypothetical point -- I made precisely the same decision when I chose to turn my side consulting practice into a full-time business. In the final analysis, my self-employment revenues were projected to be higher than my salary+benefits+stock plan from the big corporation, and that's the way it turned out. Is that true for your situation as well?

Because, as I understand it, one of the draws of the AP lifestyle is working for yourself and setting your own hours. By holding a 9-5 job and doing AP on the side, you're clearly choosing a path of increased revenue, decreased risk, and decreased free time when compared to that archetypical AP lifestyle. I'm not saying it's a bad decision, but it seems like many starry-eyed AP novices don't want to be professional gamblers on the side while they're working an office or shift job. They dream of winning huge amounts of money in a short period of time and rolling around town like CeeLo Green before he got arrested for possession.

I know for a fact I could make at least as much as I do at my 9-5 going full time AP, but the stability and risk factors don't make sense, for me. Maybe I haven't had the dazzling dream of millions overnight, but I've always thought it my "AP" dream to make big bucks "on the side." This way I always have stability, reduced risk, and can still "clean up" in the AP world essentially double dipping. I used to just be a lonely card counter. Then I had a teammate card counter. Now we have a very successful team in which this generates more EV for me personally AND I get a lot of my free time back =).

The whole point of my comments were this - Only through putting my time in with blackjack, being in the casino every day have I come across the opportunities to grow in my AP career and have the knowledge from experience to optimize my career to be generating the most EV ever, while spending the least amount of time in a casino... but it was blackjack that made all of this possible. So when you stated that there is no "million dollar exit strategy" I disagree, as blackjack can (and usually does) lead to MUCH greater things.

Wisdom can't be taught, but it can be learned.

It is obvious that I am way out of my league but when you compare what I am talking about and do with what you High Rollers with square jobs do it is completely different than what the OP wants to do for the time being. When I read his OP it sounded to me like he wanted to move to Vegas and work Black Jack Full Time. This is more in my realm. I work AP around 60 hours per week when you factor in everything involved. Some months I have clocked over 300 hours just pushing the buttons alone. My perspective is more so from the quarter to dollar machine players who are basically playing non stop, always doing a loop around the city looking for any and all plays. Even small plays that will only net a dollar or two on a 2 step golden monkey machine. This means picking up all the 10 dollar match plays and 5 dollar free plays and whatever else you can find. It is clear that the OP should be able to weed through all the posts and pick out a wealth of free knowledge from many angles. Perhaps he isn't getting the answer or answers that he wanted but it would of been nice for me to have this thread 25 years ago when I was just walking around town, learning the ropes, in person... on the street!

If I was the OP, I would of already moved out to Vegas like I did when I was 16 (Yes dropped out of high school to move to Vegas on my own) because I always knew that this is where I was going to live for the rest of my life. Instead of hemming and hawing about it you need to just jump in and start swimming for goodness sake!

Also if and when you do move here you might want to try to do something that took me a few years to get hip to. Remember in the movie "The Color of Money" where Newman told Cruise that you need to ask for everything, the spot, the 7,and 8 ball and how humiliating it would be? Well do that when you get to town. I mean ask everyone for everything. Ask for two packs of cigarettes every time you play. Ask for a 10 dollar comp. Ask for a 100 dollar comp. Ask for a free 3 night stay. Ask for free NFR tickets. Ask for Nascar Tickets. Ask for money back in free play. Just keep asking... even if you get a no :) !!

Quote: ZenKinG

Appreciate the advice as always Romes, but again you and others fail to respond to what my initial thread was about, maybe because i wrote too much and everyone just skimmed through it. Yes vegas advice is good and i welcome all advice on vegas, but the point of the thread was more about, WHERE ELSE would I be able to move to that would be convenient, less heat, longevity, profit, etc for a pure counter? I mean im close to PA, i could just move there, but like I said I think i burned my face out there enough already, better for a fresh start. I hope that small garbage sweat shop didnt put me in OSN though, that would be a bummer.

My apologies not to answer the real question ZK =P. I did read the whole OP and saw your question about where, I just kind of took it as a granted that Vegas would be your best opportunity. That's not to say there isn't other oasis's (say that word 5 times) to be found... but if you were to ask me where to full time AP/count, I would say vegas. There are ways to use promotions to basically have your rent paid for each and every month so that your blackjack bankroll doesn't take any hits. The local AP's out there know all of these tricks of the trade and if you read my other posts to ME you'll see a bit more of what I'm talking about in regards to getting in touch with locals and possibly even joining a team to get your feet grounded in the area and also pick up on these ticks/etc.

For a more direct answer, just from my knowledge (again could be better places) I would tell you vegas as well... With a caveat. You must understand when moving out there for blackjack the advantage is QUANTITY over QUALITY. You're not going to get near the rules you get in PA, and if you do, it's probably a closely watched game. You must also learn the thresholds of the different pits, and properties as to not get yourself burned. As I did state in my original post it's about LONGEVITY over EV in that town, which would be my vote on where to go.

I also would vote you go there because there is "usually" a lot of other type of promotional/machine plays that I'm hoping you'll eventually stumble upon. I too once was "Nah, I'm just fine with my blackjack EV!" Then I really go in to the other plays as well and you just can't believe how much easier they are, less time consumption, and how the EV from one play for a few hours could make up your entire blackjack EV for a month or two. Eventually, you just kinda can't ignore these plays anymore when the blackjack hours start to catch up on you (or maybe they won't - I was doing it with a full time job too).

Quote: Romes

My apologies not to answer the real question ZK =P. I did read the whole OP and saw your question about where, I just kind of took it as a granted that Vegas would be your best opportunity. That's not to say there isn't other oasis's (say that word 5 times) to be found... but if you were to ask me where to full time AP/count, I would say vegas. There are ways to use promotions to basically have your rent paid for each and every month so that your blackjack bankroll doesn't take any hits. The local AP's out there know all of these tricks of the trade and if you read my other posts to ME you'll see a bit more of what I'm talking about in regards to getting in touch with locals and possibly even joining a team to get your feet grounded in the area and also pick up on these ticks/etc.

For a more direct answer, just from my knowledge (again could be better places) I would tell you vegas as well... With a caveat. You must understand when moving out there for blackjack the advantage is QUANTITY over QUALITY. You're not going to get near the rules you get in PA, and if you do, it's probably a closely watched game. You must also learn the thresholds of the different pits, and properties as to not get yourself burned. As I did state in my original post it's about LONGEVITY over EV in that town, which would be my vote on where to go.

I also would vote you go there because there is "usually" a lot of other type of promotional/machine plays that I'm hoping you'll eventually stumble upon. I too once was "Nah, I'm just fine with my blackjack EV!" Then I really go in to the other plays as well and you just can't believe how much easier they are, less time consumption, and how the EV from one play for a few hours could make up your entire blackjack EV for a month or two. Eventually, you just kinda can't ignore these plays anymore when the blackjack hours start to catch up on you (or maybe they won't - I was doing it with a full time job too).

Well stated, thanks. Yes i've mentioned the "Quantity over Quality" before in my posts as well. I kind of stole that from KJ who im in a way trying to mimic his style of play as it seems to be a sound strategy. Of course I will improvise to it. And yes, an AP always must have his eyes open for a potential lucrative opportunity whether it be machine plays or catching a dealer who is exposing his holecard, etc. Cant be too focused on solely counting as you can miss other opportunities. I dont play much pitch though and probably never will especially in Vegas as that's what gets most people in the databases, so the chances of me catching a dealer exposing their hole card is not very high, but ill always keep my eyes open.

Why not just do a never ending loop? Pa. for a couple of days, on to Maryland, hit NC on the way to Mississippi,from there head to Oklahoma on the way to Vegas, then Reno and points north. Colorado, then South Dakota, on to Minnesota, Detroit, Canuckeheadland , and up to Foxwoods.
Trade in your car for a small camper. In six months, you'll have seen every place there is to gamble. No worries about burning out a place, either.

Quote: MathExtremist

Perhaps you are under the mistaken impression that I was inventing a hypothetical startup and a hypothetical $500M exit. Perhaps that explains the fact that you invented some hypothetical fable about hipsters, dead rock stars, and wholesale fraud.

Except you were just spinning a yarn just then. I wasn't.

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/techflash/2012/01/double-down-interactive-sold-for-500m.html

Perhaps you should find a sense of humor. Spinning a yarn? Jesus f'n Christ, who talks like that? No wonder your side still doesn't realize they are so out of touch with most Americans. Loosen the tie, take a break and relax dude, life isn't all that serious and the numbers will still be there when you get back.