Brand New Counter - $40,000 bankroll - What should be my bet spread and at what table minimum?

$40k? I would bet a unit of $100

Betting would be TC -1 *100. I would bet this amount as far up the scale as you can get away with. ( eg True Count of 7 bet $600)

Minimum should be the lowest possible bet. Zero is the lowest bet one can (not) make. ALWAYS walk at a true minus 0.5 (-0.5) or worse.

Do not deviate from what you know for cover purposes. This is just costing you money needlessly.

Never ever play the next shoe after betting big on the previous one. If you are young you will get heat so look like you can afford to bet the money you intend to.

I have made the assumption you know the game in a real live casino played lots of hours are able to play with

distractions constantly and have learned the indices from perhaps -1 through to +6.

Your risk of ruin will be less than 2% playing this way.

Lastly be prepared to get barred. It happens to the best and worst of us.

( If you are smart about how you go about it you will do ok.)

To StabWorld.
Sincerest thanks for the update and sorry to hear about the bankruptsy. Newbies should learn from your excellent experience and maybe they would be wise enough to not be cocky. You had annual swings of the order of 12K and were unlucky enough to have had an up year to start off. Like most of us,. you soon discovered that variance is a two way street and massive. For you guys in the USA, I understand that doing your taxes properly would be enough on its own to stop you in your tracks.

To Salthouse: Don't underestimate Stabworld's knowledge or experience. He really has lived the dream and was very skilled at it when he ventured forth. Telling Stabworld how to play is telling your granny how to suck eggs. I've PM'd you on another matter. Maybe when you reply to that, you will update me on your real world gambling experience.

To Zenking, if you are reading: You'd be very wise to get to know Stabworld's story. He was the 'New kid on the block of 3 years ago' He never blamed Chinese cards or crooked games.

Quote: OnceDear

To StabWorld.
Sincerest thanks for the update and sorry to hear about the bankruptsy. Newbies should learn from your excellent experience and maybe they would be wise enough to not be cocky. You had annual swings of the order of 12K and were unlucky enough to have had an up year to start off. Like most of us,. you soon discovered that variance is a two way street and massive. For you guys in the USA, I understand that doing your taxes properly would be enough on its own to stop you in your tracks.

To Salthouse: Don't underestimate Stabworld's knowledge or experience. He really has lived the dream and was very skilled at it when he ventured forth. Telling Stabworld how to play is telling your granny how to suck eggs. I've PM'd you on another matter. Maybe when you reply to that, you will update me on your real world gambling experience.

To Zenking, if you are reading: You'd be very wise to get to know Stabworld's story. He was the 'New kid on the block of 3 years ago' He never blamed Chinese cards or crooked games.

He never blamed chinese cards or crooked games, but he also never made 41k profit. Interesting observation. He also got barred all over the east coast and only made 5k profit? How does that happen? He also admitted he played intoxicated, did you forget that? I think ill listen to my own advice and my own story. Ive only been trespassed once and i think its because i ripped them off on a mispay blackjack at a max bet and got paid twice LOL. Now that i think about it, i think me acting crazy at the tables has provided good cover and longevity. They must think im a degenerate.

Quote: stabworld

My first year - i made 12k roughly
2nd year - I lost 10k roughly
3rd year - I made 11k roughly
This year - I am down 8k

- during these 3 years - I have been backed off, amd restricted from playing blackjack on just about every casino here on the East coast - with a few in vegas- 86' d from an indian casino - as well as 1 in vegas - i been backroomed - assualted - illegally detained - illegal search and seizure - and illegal dissemination of personal information against my consent - by tribal police

These are interesting reports and I enjoy reading them. They reinforce my opinion of card counting the current USA environment - it's just not worth it. Maybe there are better opportunities abroad with less heat and more penetration.

Quote: Ace

These are interesting reports and I enjoy reading them. They reinforce my opinion of card counting the current USA environment - it's just not worth it. Maybe there are better opportunities abroad with less heat and more penetration.

A few math guys/writers, like Eliot Jacobson, have said for a while that counting is no longer a viable advantage play. And while I agree there's plays out there with a much higher edge, I don't see what switch flipped to back up the claim that counting is no longer profitable. There's more casinos in the US today than ever before, and 3-2 with decent penetration still exists.

Counting is absolutely profitable. What most the book authors don't want you to know is it is in fact NOT an easy thing to do... +1's and -1's, sure, that's simple... but marrying all of the concepts needed together to have a winning game takes a greater grasp and understanding of the game and mathematics behind it. What the authors want to do is give the summation of these points, which in turn makes it sound like 'anyone can count' (which also helps sell their books) when in reality, no, not anyone can. You can be perfect at your +1's and -1's, but if you don't understand Kelly betting, RoR, etc, you're going to lose. If you don't understand variance and the natural swings of the game, you're going to accuse places of cheating you when it's really just your lack of understanding of the game and statistics. Hell, even I was there earlier in my career. I'd swear a place just cheated me because there's NO WAY you can lose that many hours in a row at the same place! Then after doing a deeper dive analysis not only did I find it was completely in the realm of possibility, but I did not IGNORE those facts but learned from them to get a better understanding of the sick variance that can come with playing blackjack.

The edge is low, the variance is high, and many many people will try...
To count the cards and make the bets, heck maybe even try to take on the side "bet the set",
But in the end, to no avail, many will falter, fumble, and fail...
Ignoring statistics, variance, betting, and RoR,
It's really no wonder, most don't get too far.
But the capital crime, the cream, the cheese,
Is ignoring good advice, from experienced members and pros such as these.

Hey Everybody,

Been years and just wanted to check in and say hello. Your boy is still alive and kicking. I just reread the whole thread and brought back some exciting memories.

Special shootouts to Kewlj and 1BB for all their helpful advice during my adventure, even while being stubborn. (Also anybody else that gave advice.)

Update to life:

Blackjack play- none really- I only play a handful of sessions a year now.

Ive been back to my roots of full time professional poker playing.

Moved out to Florida from NY 4 years ago and crushing poker with 2 of the 4 years having over 6 figure years, last year being the best at just around 150k.

Bought a house, have 2nd daughter- 1st one is now 8 years old, (she was only 4 months when I first posted thread) lol.

Anyways, my retirement plan in 13 years includes, moving to vegas and playing blackjack, lol.

So get ready for new thread, “counting in retirement.”

Hope all is well with all counters- and crushing the casino’s.

Oh how time flies, huh? =D Good to hear you've been crushing.

Only thing I'll mention, you'll have a LOT better luck playing poker in Vegas. Vegas blackjack is quantity, not quality, and if you live there eventually you'll get 86'd from every joint.

Quote: stabworld

Hey Everybody,

Been years and just wanted to check in and say hello. Your boy is still alive and kicking. I just reread the whole thread and brought back some exciting memories.

Special shootouts to Kewlj and 1BB for all their helpful advice during my adventure, even while being stubborn. (Also anybody else that gave advice.)

Update to life:

Blackjack play- none really- I only play a handful of sessions a year now.

Ive been back to my roots of full time professional poker playing.

Moved out to Florida from NY 4 years ago and crushing poker with 2 of the 4 years having over 6 figure years, last year being the best at just around 150k.

Bought a house, have 2nd daughter- 1st one is now 8 years old, (she was only 4 months when I first posted thread) lol.

Anyways, my retirement plan in 13 years includes, moving to vegas and playing blackjack, lol.

So get ready for new thread, “counting in retirement.”

Hope all is well with all counters- and crushing the casino’s.
link to original post

It seems like a weird thing to make a plan for 13 years from now. My motto is 'take what the defense gives you'. In my case, the defense is the casino slot director and the promotions department. Things change so rapidly that I cannot even plan my activities for tomorrow.

Ya when I move to vegas, maybe ill just play bj in the casinos with no poker rooms- so if i get 86’d wont jeopardize my opportunities of poker play.

Quote: stabworld

Ya when I move to vegas, maybe ill just play bj in the casinos with no poker rooms- so if i get 86’d wont jeopardize my opportunities of poker play.
link to original post

What, limits are you playing and what poker games?

Main game is 2/5, with some 5/10 and 5/5 Big 0.

Quote: stabworld

Main game is 2/5, with some 5/10 and 5/5 Big 0.
link to original post

Poker AP is somewhat scalable. Obviously, with a higher limit, the players are oftentimes better but you can offset that with better game selection.

I don't see many pros using game selection to their advantage nearly as often as they should. They seem to sit and stay at whatever table they first get a seat at. I rarely see people asking for table changes. I normally walk the room scanning tables and ask for a table change as I get seated.

Anyways, why not just bump up your limits and learn different games and forget about BJ, unless it's something juicy? There's no heat and all the BS associated with Blackjack.

Yes, the 5/10 pro’s are pretty much married to the game, they will all sit with each other targeting 1 or 2 rec players and their ego’s wont allow them to move down in stakes even when games are bad.

I only sit the 5/10 when it seems good.

And yes, game selection is very important. I constantly am trying to sit the softest game if their are choices.

The problem with the 5/10 is that theirs usually only 1 game running and occasionally a 2nd and 3rd table (but they are must move tables so you dont have a table transfer option-) and anything higher 10/25 and up nose bleeds, their will be one game if it even gets off. So table selection on 5/10 and above is really not an option/ hence why you are not seeing the 5/10 guys not table transferring.

Axel, im not focusing on bj, that part of my life is behind me, I was just going to take it up again as a retirement hobby when I retire from poker in 13 years. (But still will be playing poker- just as a passion - not as a necessity to pay bills)

Quote: stabworld

Yes, the 5/10 pro’s are pretty much married to the game, they will all sit with each other targeting 1 or 2 rec players and their ego’s wont allow them to move down in stakes even when games are bad.

I only sit the 5/10 when it seems good.

And yes, game selection is very important. I constantly am trying to sit the softest game if their are choices.

The problem with the 5/10 is that theirs usually only 1 game running and occasionally a 2nd and 3rd table (but they are must move tables so you dont have a table transfer option-) and anything higher 10/25 and up nose bleeds, their will be one game if it even gets off. So table selection on 5/10 and above is really not an option/ hence why you are not seeing the 5/10 guys not table transferring.

Axel, im not focusing on bj, that part of my life is behind me, I was just going to take it up again as a retirement hobby when I retire from poker in 13 years. (But still will be playing poker- just as a passion - not as a necessity to pay bills)
link to original post

IC. Yeah, Florida probably isn't great for GS. California or Vegas might be better, but I hear FL has some big money being tossed around in the casinos.

Good money games at a lot of country clubs if you can wrangle an invite.

Quote: billryan

Good money games at a lot of country clubs if you can wrangle an invite.
link to original post

I’ve always wondered how many legitimate legal casinos there are that are not open to the general public.

The only one I know of is at the Greenbrier in WV.

Axel- what is “GS”?

Ya, their are some big plo games (50/100- 100/200) that pop up at the hard rock hollywood, usually when their are high buy in tournaments and the high rollers come into town to play.

Quote: stabworld

Axel- what is “GS”?

Ya, their are some big plo games (50/100- 100/200) that pop up at the hard rock hollywood, usually when their are high buy in tournaments and the high rollers come into town to play.
link to original post

Game Selection.

Quote: billryan

Good money games at a lot of country clubs if you can wrangle an invite.
link to original post

It's all relative I guess. There's probably little or no game selection.

The one big problem you have:

Little or no fear of getting caught cheating. Cheating is probably going unchecked. Dealer-player collusion could be easily orchestrated with no fear of legal repercussions.

A dealer and conspirator vs the unsuspecting players involved in hand setups would be absolutely brutal for the marks bankroll.

People oftentimes think of setups as big obvious hands, like a Straight flush VS a Royal flush. Doing that sort of thing would be super dumb. Just deal the Mark AK and the conspirator KQ with a K Q 2 4 7 board. Something like that looks normal and happens often.

Now imagine the occasional Set vs Set, Khigh flush high vas A high flush. A few times over a session is all that's needed to go undetected and make significant amounts of money.

👍

Quote: Romes

Oh how time flies, huh? =D Good to hear you've been crushing.

Only thing I'll mention, you'll have a LOT better luck playing poker in Vegas. Vegas blackjack is quantity, not quality, and if you live there eventually you'll get 86'd from every joint.
link to original post

Curious what you mean by "not quality"? Can you elaborate?
Rule wise, Vegas has the most liberal rules in High Limit rooms everywhere on the strip. Pen varies but some have really good pen. For the straight-up card counter, the only downside of Vegas is the security is sharper than most places, is that what you mean?
The other places tend to have worse rules, smaller limits, sweat smaller action and it's not feasible to do short session due to driving times, so I still think Vegas is one of the best places in both quality and quantity, but I'm sure you know something I don't.