Quote: joedolI'd like to know why the mods put up with crap like this nonsense. The forum has really gone to hell
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lately and everyone knows why.
I'm going to file this as an indefinite resignation.
Quote: ExpectedvalueThis 60 hands is bullshit.
Personal insult/profanity -- Seven days.
https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cheatin-man-7728
(that whole series from him that went on for several years is worth checking out).
Quote: WizardQuote: MDawgQuote: WizardHmmm. I'm going to give you a chance to retract that before I pounce all over it.
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It should be "some sixty" hands in a row. If you want to PM me I will tell you my average bet and how much exactly I walked with, and you figure out how many hands in a row I won! I was unstoppable. We can talk about this more when I see you or on the phone. It is truthful.
Looking back, I wonder if the fact that they were constantly changing decks or getting to the point where they would deal only one hand to me and then shuffle was actually what made my streak possible. In any case, yes, it did happen.
I would not be able to determine the exact consecutive number of hands based on that information. How many shuffles took place in between is not very relevant, compared to the enormity of your claim.
That said, my page on variance in blackjack (which I always have difficulty finding) shows that under liberal Vegas Strip rules, shows the following probability of the net result per hand:
Win: 42.43%
Push: 8.48%
Loss: 49.09%
I'll nicely take out the pushes, for a probability of winning, given the bet was resolved, of 46.36%.
Let me say that yes, I know the odds are a little different for other sets of rules. I am just making an estimate here.
The probability of winning 60 hands in a row, starting at any one point, is 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.
Let's say you play blackjack four hours a day, at 100 hands per hour, for a year, five days a week. The probability of seeing 60 wins in a row is about 1 in 102,885,449,857,828,000. Before somebody jumps down my black, this is just an estimate. It's not exactly right because of overlapping sequences of 60 hands.
As a basis of comparison, the probability of winning the Powerball is 1 in 292,201,338 and the probability of winning Megamillions is 1 in 302,575,350. If you purchased one of each ticket, the probability of winning both would be 1 in 88,412,922,115,818,300. So, it's 16% more likely to win both lotteries, with two tickets, than do what you're claiming.
I see the comparison to Alan's 18 yo's in a row as already been made. As a reminder, the probability of that, starting with any one roll, is 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000. That is still 367 times more unlikely than starting with any one hand in blackjack, but they are the same order of magnitude.
I have said many times that I don't believe Alan and think his memory is not perfect. I suspect he read somewhere that the probability of an 11 is 1 in 18, and the 18 stuck in his head.
Likewise, I think your memory, or your math, is not perfect. You are now in the same basket with Alan. May you become good friends.link to original post
Since my name was brought up...
For the record I DID NOT throw 18 yos in a row. I was at a craps table at Caesars Palace when a random shooter rolled 18 yos in a row. Also I never bet on the yo nor did the shooter or his friend... so I cant claim any huge winnings.
Also I know little about blackjack and havent played it in years except at a free blackjack tournament at Red Rock Casino pre Covid.
I did play Blackjack one time at the old Sahara when they had a $1 game. I bought in for $20 and I lost 20 hands in a row. I've been told that's some kind of a record. At the time the pit boss came over to me and said it was the worst run of bad luck he ever saw.
I was playing okay... no stupid moves. But when I had 18 the dealer had 19. When I had 20 the dealer had 21. It was like that.
Other players at the table got blackjacks but not me. Other players won but not me.
Regarding 60+ wins in a row: after seeing a random roller throw 18 yos in a row i can believe 60 wins at blackjack in a row.
By the way, my personal record is 4 yos in a row. And I took photos of dice being thrown and ending up stacked three different times and I sent those to the Wizard, and two of those throws were mine.
I've also been married four times. Do the math on that too. LOL
Quote: FastEddieSo since the odds of 18 yo’s is less than the odds of two dice landing atop each other 18 times in a row, you accept Alan’s claim as well ??? Fair is only fair !
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Sure, why not? He says it happened. It’s mathematically possible.
Besides, I never really went after Alan over that one. If you watch a Craps Table for twenty rolls, whatever the precise order of outcomes is, it’s pretty ridiculously unlikely that such a specific sequence will happen.
Like I said before, the aspect of Alan’s story that I most questioned is that nobody bet the Yo!
Quote: DieterI believe this would be consistent with the mythology that many dealers perpetuate.
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Not exactly a, “Mythology.” If Blackjack paid on a, “For one,” rather than, “To one,” basis, then pushes would be considered a win. That’s why slots can call so many outcomes in which a player has a net loss a, “Win.”
Quote: Mission146Quote: DieterI believe this would be consistent with the mythology that many dealers perpetuate.
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Not exactly a, “Mythology.” If Blackjack paid on a, “For one,” rather than, “To one,” basis, then pushes would be considered a win. That’s why slots can call so many outcomes in which a player has a net loss a, “Win.”link to original post
Quote: Random blackjack dealer, tapping table with back of hand
A push is a win!
Perhaps it's more of a religion than a mythology to miscategorize "not-loss" as "Win!"
Quote: AxelWolfIf you are talking about AOS it was 30.link to original postQuote: JimRockfordI recall that a few years back, a regular poster was nearly run out of here because he claimed 33 consecutive blackjack losses.
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I’m sure you’re right. I didn’t name the poster because so I would not be asked to provide evidence.
Quote: JimRockfordI didn’t name the poster because so I would not be asked to provide evidence.
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You would only get asked if somebody else did a coach's challenge.
I have no problem whatsoever in responding to this post, except for one thing. A lack of protection for posters, especially on controversial topics. KissesQuote: Mission146I'm going to take MDawg at face value on this one and would highly encourage everyone to direct WellBush to this thread.
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In the event that, "Some sixty," consecutive Blackjack wins in a row can happen (disregarding pushes) as MDawg is claiming to have happened, AND the probability of losing an individual hand is greater than the probability of winning one (which it is) that means that MDawg was personally involved in an event that is LESS probable than losing, "Some sixty," hands in a row.
Therefore, if WellBush accepts anything even close to this account as true, then any negative progression betting system he can come up with (as we already know) can fail.
We have the real life proof account here, if MDawg is to be believed, except in reverse...because this event is actually less likely than losing some sixty hands in a row.
joke of the day 👍Quote: vegasTo quote Jim Carrey 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000. "So your telling me there's a chance"
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Quote: FastEddie60 winning hands in a row is joke of the year, but nobody is laughing.
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Why is it a joke? Because the odds say it shouldn't happen? The odds look at the possibility in a rear view mirror.
But how many times has blackjack been played by a single player for at least sixty hands? And out of all those times everyone is so positive a string of 60 wins can't happen?
It's a big world. Anything can happen.
If you have a 42% chance winning one hand, does that percentage decrease on the next hand?
If a coin has a 50% chance of being heads on one flip isnt it still 50% on the next flip?
That any of us exist with our own string of DNA shows anything can happen.
If you used DNA in the rear view mirror YOU would not exist because the odds say that. Yet you do exist.
Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Quote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Trolling?
Quote: AlanMendelson
It's a big world. Anything can happen.link to original post
I'm just a little surprised it happened so soon.
Assuming we have 107x1019 trials to run through; if 1000 hands of blackjack have been played every second for 50 years, we still have nearly 107x1019 hands to go... Like 340 billion years worth.
yes, I agree. Seems difficult to believe. That he had an exceptional run, considering he's a frequent, arguably savvy gambler, that seems perpetually well cashed up? Not as hard to believe. It may come down to the fact that his run was so exceptional, that he calculated his winnings, and in hindsight estimated what may have occurred in an excessively favourable light? Unless one can obtain verifiable proof, for or against the facts, we can only wonder.Quote: WizardLet's simplify the question and use the pass bet in craps. If the shoeless man won just 11 bets in a row, he could parlay that $600 to $1,228,800. The probability of that is just 1 in 2,395. What you are claiming has a probability of 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.
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You will note what's in my signature, and in OD's as well. It may be worth revisiting the idea of placing some clear signage on the main pages of this site, with something similar. This kind of signage need not interfere with site advertising. Mods could then reiterate the caveats clearly shown on the site, whenever such exceptional talk or claims are made.
Whilst I am toying with a betting system of my own, I DO NOT think people should do the same unless they have tried and tested their own system, and are prepared to take their own risk. What one may experience on free software, can invariably be different to what's experienced with paid bets, both online and at a casino. I've experienced this first hand. Pointing out these anomalies could be a helpful deterrent to new gamblers unaware of the risks.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Trolling?link to original post
I disagree.
Rainman rightly observed that MDawg and AlanMendelson were to go in the same basket. That was an expression used by wizard himself out of no-where.
Incidentally I asked him later if that constituted an insult to you and MDawg and he said it wasn't.
Quote: Wizard Bolding mineI see the comparison to Alan's 18 yo's in a row as already been made. As a reminder, the probability of that, starting with any one roll, is 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000. That is still 367 times more unlikely than starting with any one hand in blackjack, but they are the same order of magnitude.
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I have said many times that I don't believe Alan and think his memory is not perfect. I suspect he read somewhere that the probability of an 11 is 1 in 18, and the 18 stuck in his head.
Likewise, I think your memory, or your math, is not perfect. You are now in the same basket with Alan. May you become good friends.
You have both made posts about astronomically unlikely events. I'm not talking about unlikely I'm talking about implausible. You are indeed now bound for eternity by this almost unique characteristic. Keep a space in the basket for the un-named member that claimed 30 BJ hands in a row.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Trolling?link to original post
I disagree.
Rainman rightly observed that MDawg and AlanMendelson were to go in the same basket. That was an expression used by wizard himself out of no-where.
Incidentally I asked him later if that constituted an insult to you and MDawg and he said it wasn't.
You have both made posts about astronomically unlikely events. I'm not talking about unlikely I'm talking about implausible. You are indeed now bound for eternity by this almost unique characteristic. Keep a space in the basket for the un-named member that claimed 30 BJ hands in a row.link to original post
The difference is Mdawg claimed he won. I made no such claim. I reported what I saw.
There are many reasons to account for 18 yos in a row, including flawed dice.
I reported how one time at Caesars a new box of Paulson dice was opened. A new stick was unwrapped and I was the next shooter.
One of the five dice was missing a pip from the 6. A small flaw, yes, but a flaw that could alter results. The die was removed when I pointed it out to the floor man.
But getting back to the post in question. What contribution was made to the discussion? The contribution escapes me.
I feel I was trolled and I feel that questioning what I observed and reported is an attack on my professionalism and my credibility.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI feel I was trolled and I feel that questioning what I observed and reported is an attack on my professionalism and my credibility.
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OK. If you feel you were trolled, indeed if anyone thinks they are being trolled, take it as a complaint to one of we moderators. We are easily identified. This whole forum has too many threads polluted by complaints about other users.
TAKE COMPLAINTS AND ACCUSATIONS TO THE MODERATORS BY PM!
Alan. That ship has sailed. Your credibility was questioned and tested in the presence of your peers way back when you made that claim. It was always the claim that was attacked and way back then, you pinned your credibility to it. You own that claim and all its implications.
I rule that you were not being trolled by Rainman. You are not being trolled or insulted here. If you disagree take it to Wizard by PM.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: AlanMendelsonI feel I was trolled and I feel that questioning what I observed and reported is an attack on my professionalism and my credibility.
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OK. If you feel you were trolled, indeed if anyone thinks they are being trolled, take it as a complaint to one of we moderators. We are easily identified. This whole forum has too many threads polluted by complaints about other users.
TAKE COMPLAINTS AND ACCUSATIONS TO THE MODERATORS BY PM!
Alan. That ship has sailed. Your credibility was questioned and tested in the presence of your peers way back when you made that claim. It was always the claim that was attacked and way back then, you pinned your credibility to it. You own that claim and all its implications.
I rule that you were not being trolled by Rainman. You are not being trolled or insulted here. If you disagree take it to Wizard by PM.link to original post
There's no need because nothing will change. But each time I'm attacked I think I have the right to defend myself. After all... I was there and not one of who criticize me was there. And to date no one who was there has said my report was wrong.
And... as I used to say on TV... that is the bottom line for your money.
Quote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
POST OF THE YEAR! Heck, POST OF THE DECADE!
Alan, of course ANYONE who posts seeing an event like 18 yo’s or 60 BJ wins in a row will lose all credibility. Don’t take it personally! Frankly, I would be embarrassed if anyone I know would believe such a claim.
Is there ANY chance such an event happened in your presence? Of course, but it is much more reasonable for me to live my life disbelieving a 4e22 occurrence happened. I’ll take the consequences if I am ever proved wrong on something like this.
You are still a hero having gotten married at a craps table.
Quote: SOOPOOIs there ANY chance such an event happened in your presence? Of course, but it is much more reasonable for me to live my life disbelieving a 4e22 occurrence happened. I’ll take the consequences if I am ever proved wrong on something like this.
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Math puzzle time!
Alex is such a truthful person that he speaks the truth 999,999 times out of a million. The other one time, his memory betrayed him.
Alex just witnessed 18 rolls in craps. The following conversation then ensues:
Steve: Were all 18 rolls a "yo"?
Alex: Yes
What is the probability Alex speaks the truth?
Quote: Wizardlink to original post
What is the probability Alex speaks the truth?
50%. Either he does or he doesn't. ;-)
Quote: SOOPOOFigure out the odds of 18 yo’s in a row. Then multiply that by 1,000,000.
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No. It’s a Bayes Theorem problem.
Sorry, read your answer wrong.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOIs there ANY chance such an event happened in your presence? Of course, but it is much more reasonable for me to live my life disbelieving a 4e22 occurrence happened. I’ll take the consequences if I am ever proved wrong on something like this.
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Math puzzle time!
Alex is such a truthful person that he speaks the truth 999,999 times out of a million. The other one time, his memory betrayed him.
Alex just witnessed 18 rolls in craps. The following conversation then ensues:
Steve: Were all 18 rolls a "yo"?
Alex: Yes
What is the probability Alex speaks the truth?link to original post
Let Y stand for the event of 18 yo's.
Let S stand for the event of Alex's saying he saw 18 yo's.
Let P stand for probability.
Then:
P(Y and S) = P(Y) * P(S|Y) = P(S) * P(Y|S)
Solve for P(Y|S):
P(Y|S) = P(Y) * P(S|Y) / P(S)
S can occur either of two ways: Either Y happened and Alex told a truth, or Y didn't happen and Alex did not tell a truth.
So:
P(S) = P(Y) * P(S|Y) + P(not Y) * P(S| not Y)
Then P(Y|S) = P(Y) * P(S|Y) / [ P(Y) * P(S|Y) + P(not Y) * P(S| not Y) ]
Known values:
P(Y) = 2.54153 x 10-23
P(S|Y) = 999,999 / 1,000,000
P(S| not Y) = 1 / 1,000,000
Then:
P(Y|S) = 2.54153 x 10-23 * 999,999 / 1,000,000 / [ 2.54153 x 10-23 * 999,999 / 1,000,000 + (1 - 2.54153 x 10-23) * 1 / 1,000,000 ]
P(Y|S) = 2.54153 x 10-17
So, the probability that Alex told the truth is about one million times the probability that all 18 rolls were eleven.
Quote: ChesterDoglink to original postP(Y|S) = 2.54153 x 10-17
I agree!
Just want to make sure I’ve got this straight.
Quote: FinsRuleAdmittedly, I’m not an expert on WoV forum rules. Saying you saw 18 yos in a row is fine? Or saying you won 60 hands of blackjack or 400 hands of blackjack in a row is fine. But If you tell someone “There is no way that actually happened”, the latter person gets suspended?
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Just want to make sure I’ve got this straight.
Calling someone a liar would be an insult.
Calling their statement hard to believe is not.
Quote: DieterQuote: FinsRuleAdmittedly, I’m not an expert on WoV forum rules. Saying you saw 18 yos in a row is fine? Or saying you won 60 hands of blackjack or 400 hands of blackjack in a row is fine. But If you tell someone “There is no way that actually happened”, the latter person gets suspended?
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Just want to make sure I’ve got this straight.
Calling someone a liar would be an insult.
Calling their statement hard to believe is not.link to original post
Rules and regulations must live by them. I admire your tenacity and your consistency. Thanks for doing a superb job.
Lying and makeing up complete BS is not agisnt the form rules.Quote: FinsRuleAdmittedly, I’m not an expert on WoV forum rules. Saying you saw 18 yos in a row is fine? Or saying you won 60 hands of blackjack or 400 hands of blackjack in a row is fine. But If you tell someone “There is no way that actually happened”, the latter person gets suspended?
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Just want to make sure I’ve got this straight.
Quote: AxelWolfLying and makeing up complete BS is not agisnt the form rules.
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Neither is remembering things incorrectly.
What if you remember things incorrectly, but then you double and triple down on it only to backpedal once someone actually does the math? Yes, it is certainly nice of you to have given your Dawg(please reference the Urban Dictionary before you get all banhammery ) an out on this. It was such a ridiculous claim that it was embarrassing to us all.Quote: WizardQuote: AxelWolfLying and makeing up complete BS is not agisnt the form rules.
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Neither is remembering things incorrectly.link to original post
Or what if it's found out what someone said something many times (and even proposed a bet over it) was incorrect entirely in the first place?
Some 60 hands, perhaps it was only 50? Maybe everything an individual has said has been misremembered.
What happens when we add that up to all the other extraordinarily unlikely claims coming from the same individual? Shall we come up with a list? I think you would be simply amazed.
Yes, I know, none of this is against the rules, but not long ago members were given a little more leeway when calling out this type of stuff.
I certainly believe these claims should be called out so the Wizard Of Odds doesn't get nicknamed The Wizard Of Frauds.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat happens when we add that up to all the other extraordinarily unlikely claims coming from the same individual? Shall we come up with a list? I think you would be simply amazed.
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Yes, I know, none of this is against the rules, but not long ago members were given a little more leeway when calling out this type of stuff.
I certainly believe these claims should be called out so the Wizard Of Odds doesn't get nicknamed The Wizard Of Frauds.
Everything you just wrote is fine. I encourage skepticism and ridiculous claims should get called out. Just remember to attack the writing, the the writer. It is even fine to question the totality of ones claims based on multiple stories.
Just do it nicely. That is all I ask.
Quote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Actually much like Javert and Jean Valjean in Les Miserables*, I would suggest that OnceDear and MDawg are now bound together for eternity.
(*Explanation: In Les Miz, Javert stalks Jean Valjean for decades because of a trivial crime.)
Personal insult against Mdawg and myself. 7 days.Quote: gordonm888Quote: rainman60 hands in a Yo!
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Yourself and MDawg are now bound for eternity.
Actually much like Javert and Jean Valjean in Les Miserables*, I would suggest that OnceDear and MDawg are now bound together for eternity.
(*Explanation: In Les Miz, Javert stalks Jean Valjean for decades because of a trivial crime.)link to original post
$:o)
/JK
If you call the writing a lie, aren't you by default calling the writer a liar?
I can't think of a good, nice way that I would word "That is a lie", or "I don't believe you".
Quote: mwalz9I have a legit question that I don't know how to do. Can someone show me an example of calling out a lie where you attack the writing and not the writer?
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If you call the writing a lie, aren't you by default calling the writer a liar?
I can't think of a good, nice way that I would word "That is a lie", or "I don't believe you".
You project it onto yourself.
What you have said is beyond my capacity to believe you.
Your words are at odds with my logic and reason and I must choose to not believe them.
You are free to choose what you believe if you are sanctioned for voicing that choice
you sir are under the rule of a tyranny where logic is the enemy and truth is a menace.
Quote: rainman
You project it onto yourself.link to original post
Exactly this.
The same way I apologize for having a little trouble with one of my ears instead of telling Grandma that she's mumbling incoherently.
All perfectly true.Quote: DieterQuote: rainman
You project it onto yourself.link to original post
Exactly this.
The same way I apologize for having a little trouble with one of my ears instead of telling Grandma that she's mumbling incoherently.link to original post
One must simply be polite and inoffensive in the perception of the notional average reasonable person.
If members are so thoughtful as to clearly TRY not to be insulting, then Moderators will go the extra mile in trying not to impose a penalty.
"I cannot believe the assertion in your post" is quite safe. Because it is an observation on my own abilities AND is a reference to the assertion in the post"
"I do not believe your post" is in a grey area
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
There is some subjectivity still in the extent of any potential Insult. E.g. If I posted I served with Special Forces in Vietnam where I lost an eye and you cast that in any doubt in any way, then I might reasonably see that as personally insulting.
Just be kind and sensitive.
Quote: OnceDearAll perfectly true.Quote: DieterQuote: rainman
You project it onto yourself.link to original post
Exactly this.
The same way I apologize for having a little trouble with one of my ears instead of telling Grandma that she's mumbling incoherently.link to original post
One must simply be polite and inoffensive in the perception of the notional average reasonable person.
If members are so thoughtful as to clearly TRY not to be insulting, then Moderators will go the extra mile in trying not to impose a penalty.
"I cannot believe the assertion in your post" is quite safe. Because it is an observation on my own abilities AND is a reference to the assertion in the post"
"I do not believe your post" is in a grey area
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
There is some subjectivity still in the extent of any potential Insult. E.g. If I posted I served with Special Forces in Vietnam where I lost an eye and you cast that in any doubt in any way, then I might reasonably see that as personally insulting.
Just be kind and sensitive.link to original post
I answered a question on how to phrase a PC response so as to present it as disagreeing with someone
instead of being adversarial.
I am in no way in agreement with being coerced into giving PC responses.
I'm Hungry and am headed to my favorite taco truck, later I will ask you questions
about this statement.
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
Quote: rainmanlink to original post
I answered a question on how to phrase a PC response so as to present it as disagreeing with someone
instead of being adversarial.
I am in no way in agreement with being coerced into giving PC responses.
I'm Hungry and am headed to my favorite taco truck, later I will ask you questions
about this statement.
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
I guess it's very important to you to beat a dead horse?
Quote: AlanMendelsonlink to original post
I guess it's very important to you to beat a dead horse?
I expect the question to be valid and relevant.
Since I haven't gotten to the taco truck yet, I will guess as to rainman's question, and answer that
- You are not REQUIRED to reply
- You MAY reply nicely
- You MAY reply not-nicely, in contradiction with established community standards, but graciously accept any consequences of your statements
Sorry if that feels unduly coercive.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rainmanlink to original post
I answered a question on how to phrase a PC response so as to present it as disagreeing with someone
instead of being adversarial.
I am in no way in agreement with being coerced into giving PC responses.
I'm Hungry and am headed to my favorite taco truck, later I will ask you questions
about this statement.
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
I guess it's very important to you to beat a dead horse?link to original post
What Horse and who killed it?
What I'm trying to do AL is engage another Human being who I am certain
has a higher intellect than me that I believe has a presupposition that
is wrong, so if I lead this man of higher intellect down the path of righteousness
and enlightenment AL, I will feel pretty good about myself. And If I fail AL,
I also win for I will be the enlightened one.
Quote: rainmanQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rainmanlink to original post
I answered a question on how to phrase a PC response so as to present it as disagreeing with someone
instead of being adversarial.
I am in no way in agreement with being coerced into giving PC responses.
I'm Hungry and am headed to my favorite taco truck, later I will ask you questions
about this statement.
"I do not believe you" is an obvious implication that the poster is a liar and would be un-accepable.
I guess it's very important to you to beat a dead horse?link to original post
What Horse and who killed it?
What I'm trying to do AL is engage another Human being who I am certain
has a higher intellect than me that I believe has a presupposition that
is wrong, so if I lead this man of higher intellect down the path of righteousness
and enlightenment AL, I will feel pretty good about myself. And If I fail AL,
I also win for I will be the enlightened one.link to original post
Dont you think we all got the picture already?