cmMitchell
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 11:01:03 AM permalink
suppose the wizard had a gun to his/her head and the person holding the gun said if you do not double bankroll of 10k units you die,
besides live poker or blackjack or sports betting which game would he pick and how would he bet his system?

i know he wont reply to this question but you just might!

i know tis not flat bet since can only get ahead 2 maybe 3 standard deviants so how about wizard?
Dieter
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October 10th, 2023 at 11:23:14 AM permalink
I'm curious... what kind of timeline?

10,000 is a lot of units to double quickly.
May the cards fall in your favor.
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 11:25:07 AM permalink
no time control i suppose 1 year tho, he can play keno video poker, table games etc etc but no games listed above.
and it cant be online , i know windcreek is offering 400$ for 400$ and philly is doing 250$
but yea only offline casinos! i don't want him to do online sign ups and crap even tho im sure that river has dried up but not entirely sure on it!
so yea offline only Wizard

almost forgot too no multi carding! dont want him to muster up 10k friends and pull it off

so basically he needs to beat the game out-right as eliot jacobson would say
OnceDear
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MichaelBluejay
October 10th, 2023 at 12:04:00 PM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell


so basically he needs to beat the game out-right as eliot jacobson would say
link to original post


He doesnt need to beat the game. Probability of success close to 50% just making a few big bets on Blackjack or roulette.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/8/#post1370
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:12:33 PM permalink
but can he double the 10k?
rainman
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AitchTheLetter
October 10th, 2023 at 12:13:28 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: cmMitchell


so basically he needs to beat the game out-right as eliot jacobson would say
link to original post


He doesnt need to beat the game. Probability of success close to 50% just making a few big bets on Blackjack or roulette.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/8/#post1370
link to original post





OP excluded BJ, You and I both know he would be in quick consultation with the King of roulette.
TigerWu
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:16:53 PM permalink
$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:19:17 PM permalink
oh he can bet 10k on 1 turn but if he loses then his fate is sealed...
wouldnt it be better/safer to grind out 10k? or not?
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:19:50 PM permalink
I don't believe Wizard beats these games, he just does the math to prove they can't be beaten. But if you're going to rule out BJ because of a potential backoff, go try baccarat. Other games like Pai Gow Poker and MS Stud have potential but you won't necessarily win and could go down fast; but there's a progressive JP to shoot for. I thought craps would be a good game to win big at but I can't get a handle on this game yet. I have awful software that cranks up the difficulty to extreme and the bubble craps machine is the same with getting more vibratory by the 15 minutes until it wasn't playing like it was when I sat down an hour ago. Table minimum is $10 now so I may migrate to a table and play the DC while everybody else swings and misses.
billryan
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:22:59 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
link to original post



Are you willing to play a negative ev game with your life? i'd play a penny slot one cent at a time.

Winning $10,000 won't change my life; dying will. Seems like the smart play is to slow-roll it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell

oh he can bet 10k on 1 turn but if he loses then his fate is sealed...
wouldnt it be better/safer to grind out 10k? or not?
link to original post



If there's a gun to my head I would just rather get it over with, good or bad.
TigerWu
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:25:42 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: TigerWu

$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
link to original post



Are you willing to play a negative ev game with your life? i'd play a penny slot one cent at a time.

Winning $10,000 won't change my life; dying will. Seems like the smart play is to slow-roll it.
link to original post



What makes that the "smart play," though? Hoping you'll get lucky and hit a few penny jackpots? Otherwise you're just glued to a slot machine for the last hours of your life, almost guaranteed to lose.
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:40:03 PM permalink
the problem is Bill he has one year, one whole year to double his allocated roll of 10k units.
he certainly could put in a 50/50 shot bacc game, however not sure if thats wise letting 1 turn decide his fate (or is it?)

i am re-considering if he does fail i will allocate the wizard unlimited bankroll and remove the table limits.
with that i believe any betting system is winning (as long as he doubles up)

im suspecting the wizard would gear towards the oscards grind maybe just maybe a roulette trend straight up number
but only the whiz knows the standard devations of ones 10k roll can peak in these carny games..
billryan
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:44:09 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: billryan

Quote: TigerWu

$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat. One of the best house edges, and doing it all in one bet won't allow the house edge to grind away at you. Just get it over with.
link to original post



Are you willing to play a negative ev game with your life? i'd play a penny slot one cent at a time.

Winning $10,000 won't change my life; dying will. Seems like the smart play is to slow-roll it.
link to original post



What makes that the "smart play," though? Hoping you'll get lucky and hit a few penny jackpots? Otherwise you're just glued to a slot machine for the last hours of your life, almost guaranteed to lose.
link to original post



I lose when I go broke. I'll live for a million spins if I don't hit anything. Chances are I'll get close to a hundred million spins. Sometimes you play to win, and sometimes, you play not to lose.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:54:13 PM permalink
I believe Wizard understands the grind means time means more exposure to house edge. He would go with one big bet.

I say Craps.

Passline $100. Make certain to find a 100× odds table. He can decide if the odds are good (for example maybe he doesn't take odds except if the point is 6 and 8. Then takes full odds for 100x. Mathematically the bulk of the bet is the best odds possible with zero EV for the house.

EDIT: Actually he probably would play the don't pass and lay full odds against 4 or 8 so he has the greater free odds of the 7 working for him.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 12:55:29 PM permalink
10,000 units of $100 is a million dollars, and all he has to do is to double up in a year before the water bill is due and he has to move. Most casinos won't let you cash out more than $50K in a day without banning you unless you're a whale and the Wizard never plays those stakes anyway, so put your gun away and find another mark, but not me.
darkoz
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:02:51 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

10,000 units of $100 is a million dollars, and all he has to do is to double up in a year before the water bill is due and he has to move. Most casinos won't let you cash out more than $50K in a day without banning you unless you're a whale and the Wizard never plays those stakes anyway, so put your gun away and find another mark, but not me.
link to original post



The OP said bankroll of 10k units. So a unit could be $1 and he has to double $10,000. So betting $100 at Craps is feasible.

If the OP meant 10K units with a unit being $100 then I agree.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TigerWu
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:21:57 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

The OP said bankroll of 10k units. So a unit could be $1 and he has to double $10,000. So betting $100 at Craps is feasible.

If the OP meant 10K units with a unit being $100 then I agree.
link to original post



I missed the "units." I thought it was just $10,000.

In that case my "units" would be $1,000 chips. That totals $10,000,000. I would take that to a casino, play Baccarat, and absolutely milk them for every comp imaginable. Get a rebate on losses, get freeplay chips, free gift cards, even steal the towels from the penthouse. After loss rebates and selling everything I can, I might be able to hit $20,000,000. If that doesn't work, then at least I got to go out with a bang.
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:33:50 PM permalink
If I had 10,000 $10K buy-ins, I'd have a good chance of doubling that. The price of bread might be $100 by then though.
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:38:13 PM permalink
10kunits could be anything, they do have 0.25 denom at craps game as i watch eatsleepgamble channel
or could be 10k$ cash

i am giving the whiz 10k units to play with yet if he loses all he lose his life

if he doubles he wins his life

what is the best method to double the 10k roll? would virtual bets help at all? would an oscars grind be the answer? would betting it all on 1 turn of the cards?
maybe 3 arrows shots may be better than anything else?

again only the wizard knows for certain.
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:41:19 PM permalink
What do you get if the Wizard loses his life? Do you lose your life too?
darkoz
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cmMitchell
October 10th, 2023 at 1:43:14 PM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell

10kunits could be anything, they do have 0.25 denom at craps game as i watch eatsleepgamble channel
or could be 10k$ cash

i am giving the whiz 10k units to play with yet if he loses all he lose his life

if he doubles he wins his life

what is the best method to double the 10k roll? would virtual bets help at all? would an oscars grind be the answer? would betting it all on 1 turn of the cards?
maybe 3 arrows shots may be better than anything else?

again only the wizard knows for certain.
link to original post



Well, the best method for winning is probably notifying security that the guy next to you is concealing a gun and hoping you win your life by being saved :))
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:44:13 PM permalink
that would make sense and would be fair but we dont live in those fair and make sense worlds

so maybe just maybe he gets to keep his life and the cash...

i strongly believe the wizard would use a system if forced to play a carny game and had no other option
but which system is the question...
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:47:10 PM permalink
I'm gonna assume you've taken the Wizard hostage and you don't know how to gamble.
But if you want to check out some games to play on the website there's this link: https://wizardofvegas.com/games/
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:53:02 PM permalink
we can rule out flat betting that would lead to his ruination
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:55:14 PM permalink
So you're in Atlantic City?
cmMitchell
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October 10th, 2023 at 1:57:23 PM permalink
Yes
but why?

imnot CM mitchhel but i do like how the sheep flock to him and give him there hard earn cash for a few videos of casino fiction.fantasy
i wish i had the talent to give speeches and say this and say that that maybe fake and yet receive cold hard cash for doin it
even if 10 heads gives him 500$ a pop thats 5k a year for a few stupid videos agian only he knows what he makes off this racket
ChumpChange
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cmMitchell
October 10th, 2023 at 1:59:06 PM permalink
Just to see if this is a remote hostage taking.
Mind you, the mods should be dialing the Wizard looking for his whereabouts or dialing 911 if they can't find him, and if the mods do find him, they should nuke the OP.
ThatDonGuy
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October 10th, 2023 at 4:23:01 PM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell

oh he can bet 10k on 1 turn but if he loses then his fate is sealed...
wouldnt it be better/safer to grind out 10k? or not?
link to original post


No - all at once is the move. The more you grind, the more money you expose to the house edge.

The only problem with betting bank in baccarat is, the 5% commission - either you have to pad the bankroll, or you don't double it with a win.
Ace2
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October 10th, 2023 at 6:20:12 PM permalink
If you make one bet for $10,000 or 10,000 bets for $1, you expose the same amount of money to the house edge. For simplicity, assume you bet player and ignore ties.

You have nearly a 50% chance of going up $10,000 if you make one bet for $10,000. However, if you make 10,000 bets for $1, you have a 90% chance of logging a loss and essentially a zero chance of ending up over $400.

House edge increases linearly with number of bets while standard deviation increases by the square root of them. Therefore, making more bets reduces the standard deviation relative to bets made, making it more likely youíll be close to expectations, which is a loss

Bottom line. High standard deviation is beneficial if your goal is biggest possible gain OR loss
Itís all about making that GTA
Gandler
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October 10th, 2023 at 6:37:24 PM permalink
If I had a literal gun to my head, I would probably just make any single even money bet and hope for the best, because I would not be in a position/state to think too deeply about it. If the situation was I was being held hostage for an extended period of time and I was able to think more long-term about it, I would probably bet the smallest bet that I could, and drag it out as long as I could in hopes of rescue.
ThatDonGuy
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October 10th, 2023 at 6:41:20 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

If you make one bet for $10,000 or 10,000 bets for $1, you expose the same amount of money to the house edge. For simplicity, assume you bet player and ignore ties.

You have nearly a 50% chance of going up $10,000 if you make one bet for $10,000. However, if you make 10,000 bets for $1, you have a 90% chance of logging a loss and essentially a zero chance of ending up over $400.
link to original post


True, but remember that the original post mandated that the $10,000 be doubled, under penalty of death. That changes the conditions under which you are betting considerably.
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 6:55:17 PM permalink
I'm sure it would take me several hundred hours to win 3,000 units ahead. So winning 10,000 units ahead would take over 1,000 hours. But I don't have the luxury of starting out with 10,000 units, more like 25 units.
FinsRule
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October 10th, 2023 at 7:03:03 PM permalink
Vulture everything all year.
unJon
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October 10th, 2023 at 7:16:39 PM permalink
Whatís your life vs 10k units? There are +EV shots if you can use money to stack the deck in your favor. How much would it take to get the dealer and the pit boss to flash you the card on top of the baccarat shoe. Or their hole cards at UTH. Etc.

Or is that outside the scope of this game?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
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October 10th, 2023 at 8:59:57 PM permalink
I assume the OP.is talking about standard casino games without any AP knowledge or understanding.

Just gambling.

I assume he is asking what game and betting systems would give you the best chance to double your money.

If you start to add in no restrictions no limits and factor in everything with an advantage, it's impossible to answer since there's so many variables and various +EV opportunities out there(many unknown to most).
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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October 10th, 2023 at 9:18:29 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I assume the OP.is talking about standard casino games without any AP knowledge or understanding.

Just gambling.

I assume he is asking what game and betting systems would give you the best chance to double your money.

If you start to add in no restrictions no limits and factor in everything with an advantage, it's impossible to answer since there's so many variables and various +EV opportunities out there(many unknown to most).
link to original post



The OP said no BJ and no multicarding but nothing about vulturing so yeah with time that would be the most guaranteed method to double your money.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ChumpChange
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October 10th, 2023 at 9:20:48 PM permalink
Here's an appetizer I'm not impressed with.


It's the Fibonacci and after over 50 hands he's only up 6 units. But he found a bug in the software that gave him an extra unit. Not sure how he's gonna get past level 6 with the table limits posted but I like his bankroll.
darkoz
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October 10th, 2023 at 10:22:55 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Here's an appetizer I'm not impressed with.



It's the Fibonacci and after over 50 hands he's only up 6 units. But he found a bug in the software that gave him an extra unit. Not sure how he's gonna get past level 6 with the table limits posted but I like his bankroll.
link to original post



The Fibonacci flaw is that you have to win 2x in a row back to back to make your profit. So LLLLLLWLWLWLL is three wins and you still haven't made a profit. It throws the whole notion that you have to win sometime out the window.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mental
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October 10th, 2023 at 11:29:08 PM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell

suppose the wizard had a gun to his/her head and the person holding the gun said if you do not double bankroll of 10k units you die,
besides live poker or blackjack or sports betting which game would he pick and how would he bet his system?

i know he wont reply to this question but you just might!

i know tis not flat bet since can only get ahead 2 maybe 3 standard deviants so how about wizard?
link to original post

I'd definitely want a 100% guaranteed system. I would give 100K units to a friend. They would play River Dragons until the meters were $492 minor or $4990 major. I would hit the jackpots and give the game back to my friend. Repeat as necessary until I have doubled up my 10K units. My friend gets to keep whatever is left over for saving my life.

This is similar to chip dumping at poker, but live poker is not allowed in the OP.
Last edited by: Mental on Oct 11, 2023
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OnceDear
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October 11th, 2023 at 12:10:57 AM permalink
Quote: cmMitchell

oh he can bet 10k on 1 turn but if he loses then his fate is sealed...
wouldnt it be better/safer to grind out 10k? or not?
link to original post


Absolutely not
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TigerWu
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October 11th, 2023 at 6:26:26 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The only problem with betting bank in baccarat is, the 5% commission - either you have to pad the bankroll, or you don't double it with a win.
link to original post



Just play at a table where they do a running total of commission instead of taking it out every hand.

Bet banker, win, and you've doubled your bankroll. You only have to pay commission when you leave the table or at the end of a shoe, so you've satisfied the conditions of the challenge before having to pay commission.
Tanko
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October 11th, 2023 at 6:53:40 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat.
link to original post



You would still come up $500 short if you won the hand.

There's a 5% commission on all Banker wins.

Best chance is to split the bankroll into twenty units and count a single-deck Blackjack game with liberal rules. Then only bet any time the true count is +3 or higher, for a 1% edge or higher over the house.
TigerWu
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:06:07 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Quote: TigerWu

$10,000 all on Banker in Baccarat.
link to original post



You would still come up $500 short if you won the hand.

There's a 5% commission on all Banker wins.

link to original post



See my above post re: commission.

Even disregarding that, there's no rule in the challenge (or in Baccarat for that matter) that says you have to pay commission from your winnings. You could bring extra money to the table to pay the commission.
Mental
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:24:02 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Best chance is to split the bankroll into twenty units and count a single-deck Blackjack game with liberal rules. Then only bet any time the true count is +3 or higher, for a 1% edge or higher over the house.
link to original post



Blackjack is against the rules of the OP.
Quote: OP

besides live poker or blackjack or sports betting which game would he pick and how would he bet his system?

The OP is really a math question about maximizing double-up probability in a live casino setting excluding certain games. However, we cannot find the best betting system to maximize double-up probability without knowing what the unit is or what the max allowed bet is in terms of units. Aggressive betting systems can improve the double-up probability, but the exact optimum system depends on the exact PDF.

OP does not specifically say whether casino cashback and bonuses are included in the bankroll calculation. I could also double my bankroll by taking out a marker.
Last edited by: Mental on Oct 11, 2023
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lilredrooster
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:32:48 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu


Even disregarding that, there's no rule in the challenge (or in Baccarat for that matter) that says you have to pay commission from your winnings



just curious if you don't mind my asking

I remember playing bacc or maybe it was mini bacc when I wanted to just take a break and goof off with no edge

I remember at some tables on a winning banker bet the dealer paid out just 95%__________no choice was offered to get a 1/1 payout and then later pay it back

is that kind of payout procedure still out there_________?________thanks

.
Please don't feed the trolls
unJon
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:39:45 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: ThatDonGuy

The only problem with betting bank in baccarat is, the 5% commission - either you have to pad the bankroll, or you don't double it with a win.
link to original post



Just play at a table where they do a running total of commission instead of taking it out every hand.

Bet banker, win, and you've doubled your bankroll. You only have to pay commission when you leave the table or at the end of a shoe, so you've satisfied the conditions of the challenge before having to pay commission.
link to original post



If thatís allowed then Banker is +EV and you could Kelly your way to a double up (excluding commission) with no risk of ruin.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TigerWu
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:40:16 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

just curious if you don't mind my asking

I remember playing bacc or maybe it was mini bacc when I wanted to just take a break and goof off with no edge

I remember at some tables on a winning banker bet the dealer paid out just 95%__________no choice was offered to get a 1/1 payout and then later pay it back

is that kind of payout procedure still out there_________?________thanks

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I think so.... depends on the casino, I think, and the version of baccarat.

I usually play at high limit tables, and at least in every high limit room I've been in the baccarat is 1:1 payout with commission having a running tally.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 11th, 2023 at 7:53:41 AM permalink
please delete
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 11, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 11th, 2023 at 1:16:17 PM permalink
Doubling up by taking out a marker is probably exactly what a hostage taker wants immediately. You can pay off the hostage taker, and spend whatever time you want trying to recoup the money you paid him. But if you have to get this done in 6 hours, somebody explain how this can be done. Some of the celebs these days could be Elon's terrorists.

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