OnceDear's Method
Somebody had to do it $:o)Quote: EvenBobThis thread is such an inspiration to the entire gambling community. Someone with an obvious winning method sharing all his secrets openly on a public forum, my hats off to you sir. We should all sit at your feet and learn. I feel like I'm getting all emotional with gratitude. Sniff..
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Quote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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25 sessions in, I'm inclined to throw you guys a bone.....
OnceDear's Method : As it applies to Roulette, Baccarat, SicBo and any games with a games history Marquee.
That there is a marquee present is of ZERO significance or value. If that marquee indicates a trend or pattern it's of no more importance or use than if you spill some ink spots and see a picture of a butterfly. No Value at all. No Ifs, No Buts, No giving a damn that some trend seems to be present. It all means NOTHING. It adds NOTHING. It has no part to play in OnceDear's Method. The Method stands on it's own without any game history display.
You'll note that I like to play BlackJack with my Method. Blackjack has no game history marquee.
I'll probably refer more to marquees and history displays after a few more (winning) sessions.
A grand accomplishment at showing screenshots of incomplete or missing pages, cherrypicked data, adding and subtracting casinos from your data. Sounds very scientific to... NO ONE.Quote: EvenBobQuote: odiousgambitI wish Bob well, generally, but not in this matter. This is exactly the matter of a "freeroll" had there been a bet involved. You can't allow someone to back out for free, I'm sure I don't need to go on. Since there was no bet, I say it still can't be "free" so I am glad you said this and I am piling on. It is outrageous and this piling on is deserved
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I don't know what's outrageous but if you're piling on because you think I crashed and burned, you could not be more wrong if you put your mind to it. The polar opposite happened, it was a spectacular success there was not a single crash, not a single burn, not a single losing session. The entire experiment was a grand accomplishment, and once again your wishful thinking is dashed to the ground. You should be used to that by now.
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It has been obvious to me that your method is just a betting system. It's your method of showing that Bob's method is nothing but a -EV betting system.Quote: OnceDearQuote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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25 sessions in, I'm inclined to throw you guys a bone.....
OnceDear's Method : As it applies to Roulette, Baccarat, SicBo and any games with a games history Marquee.
That there is a marquee present is of ZERO significance or value. If that marquee indicates a trend or pattern it's of no more importance or use than if you spill some ink spots and see a picture of a butterfly. No Value at all. No Ifs, No Buts, No giving a damn that some trend seems to be present. It all means NOTHING. It adds NOTHING. It has no part to play in OnceDear's Method.
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Quote: OnceDearWell, This is embarrassing.....
Session 23 now completed. I completed the Blackjack session 'up' by only a quarter of the table minimum bet.
Still. OnceDear's Method prevailed.
Sessions Played 23: Sessions Won 23: Session Win Rate 100%
I think I need to tuck Sessions 24 and 35 under my belt before dinner.
Off we go.
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"Up"? Did I just teach YOU a new term for winning or a win?
TUTTIGYM strikes again!!
tuttigym
Quote: OnceDearQuote: OnceDearQuote: OnceDear
Session 25 about to start..... I think, maybe baccarat.
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Hmm I'd have to change casino for baccarat at less than £1 table min. Maybe later.
Session 25 shall be low stakes roulette. I might eschew the even money bets for a change. Yes. That's what I'll do.
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That was boring!
1 wager placed a chip on each of two columns and immediately one one unit profit. Session was a success.
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Quick question OD: Could one define the above wager as an AP (advantage play) or a +EV event? If so, why does it qualify? If not, why not?
tuttigym
Why don't people understand how easy it is to show you are winning while playing a -EV game without an advantage?
It's hard for me to believe people can fall for this. I should just sell betting systems and whatnot. I can show what seems like legitimate proof of consistently winning thousands and thousands on everything from slots to the big 6.
I could even show actual legitimate proof using +EV methods.
Quote: ChumpChangeThe difference between BJ & craps is that I can play 200 hands of BJ and come out even after being down the entire time. On the PL in craps, I think I'd multiply by 8.5 or something, not sure what, to get the number of rolls it would take me to go through 200 shooters and get the same result. So 1700 rolls of the dice to get nowhere, or nearly 19 hours at 90 rolls per hour. I feel I'm wasting my time at the craps table and I need to either make more bets per shooter or switch games to play BJ.
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Can this marvelous method beat Casino War, that would be amazing. You should write a book.
Thanks for your input.Quote: AxelWolfQuote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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It has been obvious to me that your method is just a betting system. It's your method of showing that Bob's method is nothing but a -EV betting system.
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Is OnceDear's Method a betting system? I'm not arguing either way. There is a method whereby something is done methodically and even repeatedly. It is rule based and Betting is done. Yayyy even GAMBLING is done. We could call it OnceDear's Gambling Method. So if a system is a method is a system is a method, I'm fine with that. It certainly belongs in the BS subforum. Call it what you will.
Is this thread a parody thread? Absolutely NOT.
Is it my method of showing Bob's method is nothing but a -EV Betting system?
It IS my method of demonstrating how some 'Method' can give the appearance of being useful and of some dollar value when it is not.
Stealing my own thunder a bit, there will be revelations which will show how deceptive a 'method' can be.
EvenBob had his fun. He had his chance, briefly demonstrating whatever it was that he demonstrated. But he never demonstrated or explained any of his method, so we'll never be able to demonstrate any invalidity of his 'Method'. Frankly, I could not care less. He had his chances and declined to be put under scrutiny.
This thread is NOT a demonstration of Bob's method. It's not about or related to his Method.
I might later reference some similarities and differences between my method and a few systems.
Quote: tuttigym"Up"? Did I just teach YOU a new term for winning or a win?
TUTTIGYM strikes again!!
tuttigym
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Every day is a school day $:o)
Quote: tuttigymQuote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Quick question OD: Could one define the above wager as an AP (advantage play) or a +EV event? If so, why does it qualify? If not, why not?
tuttigym
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Great questions which I'll gladly answer.
Not an advantage play and not a +EV event.
Before I played the Roulette wager, I had the expectation of either losing my wagered stake (40p) or receiving some winnings (20p + Stake) for winning my wager.
I staked 40p onto the table and expected to pick up 60p or 0p
I expected those events with 24/37 = 64.865% and 13/37 = 35.135% probability respectively.
For it to qualify as a +EV event, it would have had to be wager where the probability of winning that 20p was over
66 and 2/3 percent.* Or where the paytable was unusual or some sort of bonus available.
So.... Nothing was +EV and I had no Advantage play.
I just gambled and won. It happens.
*I.e I'd need to know something unusual about the spin beforehand.
Quote: AxelWolfFor F's sake.
Why don't people understand how easy it is to show you are winning while playing a -EV game without an advantage?
It's hard for me to believe people can fall for this. I should just sell betting systems and whatnot. I can show what seems like legitimate proof of consistently winning thousands and thousands on everything from slots to the big 6.
I could even show actual legitimate proof using +EV methods.
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I fully agree. I understand that you know that I too could demonstrate real +EV methods.
You and I both know that OnceDear's method is -EV. Maybe as I demonstrate it and explain it, a penny will drop in someone's head.
At some point we might have to explain YET again the value of the definition of Expected Value. EV has been defined by many renowned mathematicians. (Check it out on WikiPedia ) Sadly, some of the better ones were French and modern translations of their definitions and analysis are a little complex for the participants in this subforum.
Let's spoon feed them the truth
Quote: OnceDear
EvenBob had his fun. He had his chance, briefly demonstrating whatever it was that he demonstrated. But he never demonstrated or explained any of his method,
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But of course you are 100% wrong. I explained my method many many times, I follow patterns and trends. Perhaps this was too simple of an explanation, but that's all I do. There's no more to it. I have studied patterns and trends and I put that knowledge to use making educated guesses as to what might be next. I don't know how I could have explained it any further or in any simpler terms. It's amazing that you missed it.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDear
EvenBob had his fun. He had his chance, briefly demonstrating whatever it was that he demonstrated. But he never demonstrated or explained any of his method,
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But of course you are 100% wrong. I explained my method many many times, I follow patterns and trends. Perhaps this was too simple of an explanation, but that's all I do. There's no more to it. I have studied patterns and trends and I put that knowledge to use making educated guesses as to what might be next. I don't know how I could have explained it any further or in any simpler terms. It's amazing that you missed it.
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Not relevent in this thread. I guess I made the mistake of opening the door to your response by mentioning you.
Lesson learned.
.
Quote: EvenBobI have studied patterns and trends and I put that knowledge to use making educated guesses as to what might be next.
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Remember folks, EB doesn't gamble... he guesses! For money! Totally different from gambling.
If anyone wants to discuss those things, maybe open a thread other than this one. But if you ask for that thread to be closed, don't come back to hijack this one.
There used to be a thread for that. This isn't it.Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobI have studied patterns and trends and I put that knowledge to use making educated guesses as to what might be next.
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Remember folks, EB doesn't gamble... he guesses! For money! Totally different from gambling.
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Quote: OnceDearQuote: tuttigym"Up"? Did I just teach YOU a new term for winning or a win?
TUTTIGYM strikes again!!
tuttigym
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Every day is a school day $:o)
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As it is for me.
tuttigym
Quote: OnceDearQuote: tuttigymQuote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Quick question OD: Could one define the above wager as an AP (advantage play) or a +EV event? If so, why does it qualify? If not, why not?
tuttigym
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Great questions which I'll gladly answer.
Not an advantage play and not a +EV event.
Before I played the Roulette wager, I had the expectation of either losing my wagered stake (40p) or receiving some winnings (20p + Stake) for winning my wager.
I staked 40p onto the table and expected to pick up 60p or 0p
I expected those events with 24/37 = 64.865% and 13/37 = 35.135% probability respectively.
For it to qualify as a +EV event, it would have had to be wager where the probability of winning that 20p was over
66 and 2/3 percent.* Or where the paytable was unusual or some sort of bonus available.
So.... Nothing was +EV and I had no Advantage play.
I just gambled and won. It happens.
*I.e I'd need to know something unusual about the spin beforehand.
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Thanks for the answer.
So, is 66.67% the "standard" margin to have any wager an AP (advantage play) or +EV? Does the gambling world of the "establishment" totally recognize that "standard" or are there variations?
tuttigym
Quote: OnceDear
Not relevent in this thread. I guess I made the mistake of opening the door to your response by mentioning you.
Lesson learned.
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Hold the phone there. You make an accusation against me and I answered it and now you're saying it's not relevant to the thread? You don't get off that easy, you can't go throwing accusations around and then weasel out of it. Did I or did I not tell exactly how my method works and exactly what I do. It's like I was a Wall Street expert and I wrote a book on the stock market I told you exactly what I did but I did not include what stocks you're supposed to buy for that day. So then you accuse me of not demonstrating anything in my book. Of course I told you what I do, quit denying it. What you mean is that I did not give you an exact step by step second by second education on how to win. So you're going to use that to say that I told you nothing at all about what I do.
Quote: OnceDearOnceDear's Method does not, in any way, involve Following or Studying patterns or trends. Nor does it involve making educated guesses.
If anyone wants to discuss those things, maybe open a thread other than this one. But if you ask for that thread to be closed, don't come back to hijack this one.
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Nobody's hijacking anything. You made a blatant 100% inaccurate accusation you expect me to just keep my mouth shut about it? It doesn't work that way.
Uh? Standard Margin? Margin?Quote: tuttigymQuote: OnceDearQuote: tuttigymQuote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Quick question OD: Could one define the above wager as an AP (advantage play) or a +EV event? If so, why does it qualify? If not, why not?
tuttigym
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Great questions which I'll gladly answer.
Not an advantage play and not a +EV event.
Before I played the Roulette wager, I had the expectation of either losing my wagered stake (40p) or receiving some winnings (20p + Stake) for winning my wager.
I staked 40p onto the table and expected to pick up 60p or 0p
I expected those events with 24/37 = 64.865% and 13/37 = 35.135% probability respectively.
For it to qualify as a +EV event, it would have had to be wager where the probability of winning that 20p was over
66 and 2/3 percent.* Or where the paytable was unusual or some sort of bonus available.
So.... Nothing was +EV and I had no Advantage play.
I just gambled and won. It happens.
*I.e I'd need to know something unusual about the spin beforehand.
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Thanks for the answer.
So, is 66.67% the "standard" margin to have any wager an AP (advantage play) or +EV? Does the gambling world of the "establishment" totally recognize that "standard" or are there variations?
tuttigym
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In that instance, a 66 and 2/3 % probability of the wager getting paid at 1:2 would have made that particular wager 0EV
Any higher probability would have meant the player had an edge and it would be +EV.
Any lower probability would have meant the house had an edge and it would be -EV.
With roulette, the probability is 64.865 which is lower than 66 2/3 therefore the house has the edge and it's -EV.
The 'establishment'? I don't know about that. But Mathematicians define EV and how it's calculated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
Simplified for a simple wager with two possible outcomes where one outcome is a win and one outcome is a loss.
But someone, I think it was you said something about the application of EV as overly complex.
I may come back to it later.
OnceDear's Method is -EV and has no Dollar Value, except as a concept to be sold to suckers or as content on a monetized web platform.
Quote: OnceDear
Before I played the Roulette wager, I had the expectation of either losing my wagered stake (40p) or receiving some winnings (20p + Stake) for winning my wager.
I staked 40p onto the table and expected to pick up 60p or 0p
I expected those events with 24/37 = 64.865% and 13/37 = 35.135% probability respectively.
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For that 40p wager, If i won, i had a return of 60p and if I lost I had a return of 0p
The expected return on that 40p wager was
60 x 64.865 + 0 x 35.135 = 38.92p
That's an expected loss of 40 - 38.92 = 1.08p
An expected loss of > 0 is a -EV proposition and an expected profit > 0 is a +EV proposition
Quote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Session 26 just in.
Gambled 3 times, each a flat bet of 20p at BlackJack.
Lost one hand, Won two hands.
Therefore
Sessions Played 26: Sessions Won 26: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
I think that's enough sessions for today. Got to rehydrate.
As Always, full and unredacted game log files are available to Wizard, his moderators or members of my choosing.
I may make errors in my reporting, especially reporting so frequently. E & OE
Although some are making the case that what you do can't be done to positive expectation, and that this site is the wrong place to make such a claim, I agree with the decision to let it be posted.Quote: EvenBobBut of course you are 100% wrong. I explained my method many many times, I follow patterns and trends. Perhaps this was too simple of an explanation, but that's all I do. There's no more to it. I have studied patterns and trends and I put that knowledge to use making educated guesses as to what might be next. I don't know how I could have explained it any further or in any simpler terms. It's amazing that you missed it.
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However as you no doubt noted, posting logs of your betting for the purpose of supporting this claim sent me over the edge. In particular once I recognized that such a thing is wholly a template for "freerolling" whether or not you intended to do so. Yes I know there was no bet ... well , actually there was, the stakes were bragging rights and saving face.
Looking back on it now, when you had the Wizard looking at your live betting, I consider that an exercise in freerolling that you got away with. The Wizard was duped I'm sorry to say. And even though I think it possible you didn't have the intent, each time of the three instances I have in mind the event was terminated at no cost to you meanwhile before termination there was a chance you could have gone on a lucky winning streak
I respectfully suggest to the moderators that in future no log-posting that is supposed to support any claims other than 'lookie here I got lucky' be allowed
Quote: odiousgambit
I respectfully suggest to the moderators that in future no log-posting that is supposed to support any claims other than 'lookie here I got lucky' be allowed
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Hey, you people asked me, almost begged me, to post logs of what I was betting. So I do it and I get mocked because I'm not betting enough money, like that has anything to do with it. And because I'm not bending over backwards to post every single jot and tittle of whatever proof I could lay my hands on just so a bunch of people who could give a crap less and don't like me anyway MIGHT be convinced that I had a winning method. I did the minimum amount possible for the time that I had to give to it, not enough? Oh well. There was a chance I could have been on a lucky winning streak? Why didn't I think of that, I've been on a 16 year lucky winning streak! That's the ticket, thank you for clearing things up. Good grief..
And if somebody wants to scream this is hijacking this thread, the OP opened this can of worms a few posts back and now he gets to reap the benefits of it. If he doesn't want this stuff in his thread, he should be the one to leave it out of his thread.
Quote: OnceDear
Quote: OnceDear
Sessions Played 25: Sessions Won 25: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
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Session 26 just in.
Gambled 3 times, each a flat bet of 20p at BlackJack.
Lost one hand, Won two hands.
Therefore
Sessions Played 26: Sessions Won 26: Sessions Lost 0: Session Success Rate 100%
I think that's enough sessions for today. Got to rehydrate.
As Always, full and unredacted game log files are available to Wizard, his moderators or members of my choosing.
I may make errors in my reporting, especially reporting so frequently. E & OE
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I think your method is madness, I would expect nothing less from a clever Brit.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: odiousgambit
I respectfully suggest to the moderators that in future no log-posting that is supposed to support any claims other than 'lookie here I got lucky' be allowed
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Hey, you people asked me, almost begged me, to post logs of what I was betting. So I do it and I get mocked because I'm not betting enough money, like that has anything to do with it. And because I'm not bending over backwards to post every single jot and tittle of whatever proof I could lay my hands on just so a bunch of people who could give a crap less and don't like me anyway MIGHT be convinced that I had a winning method. I did the minimum amount possible for the time that I had to give to it, not enough? Oh well. There was a chance I could have been on a lucky winning streak? Why didn't I think of that, I've been on a 16 year lucky winning streak! That's the ticket, thank you for clearing things up. Good grief..
And if somebody wants to scream this is hijacking this thread, the OP opened this can of worms a few posts back and now he gets to reap the benefits of it. If he doesn't want this stuff in his thread, he should be the one to leave it out of his thread.
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Nobody cares don't respond, and stop Hijacking!
Quote: EvenBobWhat happened to this thread, the OP hasn't posted here in 3 days. And he's been on the Forum, he was here today. I confronted him about the fact that he was posting crap about me and he disappeared, poof. Oh well, I have the canons loaded ready to fire and now they just sit here, unlit.
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Must be in the middle of a long session.
Quote: billryanHe's waiting for his brown pants to come back from the cleaners.
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I thought he was getting taken to the cleaners?
Maybe he can pick them up.
Fear not. There have been several more short winning sessions and zero losing sessions. I just couldn't be bothered to post. It's not obligatory.Quote: unJonQuote: EvenBobWhat happened to this thread, the OP hasn't posted here in 3 days. And he's been on the Forum, he was here today. I confronted him about the fact that he was posting crap about me and he disappeared, poof. Oh well, I have the canons loaded ready to fire and now they just sit here, unlit.
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Must be in the middle of a long session.
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Quote: unJon
Must be in the middle of a long session.
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Actually Unjon, there is something particularly salient about your comment.
Most of the sessions where OnceDear's Method is applicable are short: Often one, two or three wagers. I've been lucky since starting this thread that there have been very few long sessions. Long sessions can be the more risky sessions, but they have their part to play.
A quick word about session length:-
It is what it is. The maths behind OnceDear's method makes shorter sessions significantly preferable but there is no way of knowing before a session begins, how many wagers it will involve.
Why preferable?
The house has an edge. It is a positive percentage of the total amount wagered. For a long session, more is wagered and so more is exposed to the house edge. For flat betting, the same stake is exposed to the house edge multiple times. For progressive betting such as Marty, there will tend to be fewer wagers, but the average wager size exposed to the house edge means a greater expected loss. Losing is generally deemed to be bad. Within a winning session, there will normally be a significant proportion of losing wagers.
Long term, with or without OnceDear's Method, and with or without progressive wagering, the amount lost will tend towards (Total Amount Wagered x House Edge ).
Report of recent sessions coming soon. I'm going to transcribe the many pages of game logs into text form, though unredacted log access is available to moderators or selected members of my choosing.
I'm thinking it may also be time for a chart as 'a picture paints a thousand words'
Quote: EvenBobBecause this thread is an obvious parody of my thread this seems to be the appropriate place to post this. I'm trying to join all the casinos in Michigan online and last night I joined Caesars and they immediately gave me a $10 bonus. I really don't want the bonus because it takes too long and you have to bet too much money to get the lousy $10 bonus but no matter what I do all I do is keep winning. You can see how erratic I was betting and I still doubled the bonus already. I must say I don't like Caesars very much because they already kicked me offline twice while I was betting made me go through the whole process of signing in again and verifying. As you can see I have $20 credit but I can't withdraw it because I haven't met their stupid requirements yet. I think I have to bet $300 to win the lousy $10 bonus. As you can see by the email I got I joined the casino at 12:58 a.m. And just after 1:00 a.m. I was betting. I'm going to keep trying to lose the bonus later today by cranking up my betting.
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Ouch.
The 13 hours is the time required to clear the bonus -- you have to subtract off his expected loss rate from the hourly earn rate. If you choose the wrong game to do the play through, the overall EV is negative, so taking a long time to lose money is better, I guess.Quote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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Quote: EvenBobBecause this thread is an obvious parody of my thread
Off Topic.
THIS thread is not about you, nor is it about wagering requirements at a casino in Michigan.
"Your thread" ??? You own a thread somewhere? Go post to it if this is salient content.
As far as I can tell, there is no mention in this thread of Michigan or Caesars online casino requirements.
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Quote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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What's time got to do with anything, I played a little last night and I played a little today I didn't play for 13 hours. And I didn't make any money, the money I'm using is a bonus so the money all belongs to the casino. I started out with $10 and I doubled it. What you have to look at is that I spent wagered $62 to make $10 which is freaking ridiculous. I would never do that if this was regular play, to make $10 I usually have to wager $10, and so on. This is just an experiment to see if by screwing around I can take a bonus and run it up to where I am making larger bets. If you look I did make a $4 bet and a $5 bet which are huge when you consider I only had $15 at the time I made them. But I was 80% sure I was going to win so I did it and I won. This whole thing could go bust, I don't like the way they're disconnecting me right when I'm playing that never happens in any other Casino.
Quote: MentalThe 13 hours is the time required to clear the bonusQuote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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The bonus isn't cleared what are you talking about. Did you miss the pic where I tried to withdraw and it says I don't have any funds to withdraw? To get this $10 released I have to wager $300 eventually. The whole thing is ridiculous.
Quote: EvenBob
Not off topic This thread is about methods and I'm posting about my method. At least I'm posting something that's real and not some fantasy that you made up to parody me.
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Are you playing by OnceDear's method?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MentalThe 13 hours is the time required to clear the bonusQuote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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The bonus isn't cleared what are you talking about. Did you miss the pic where I tried to withdraw and it says I don't have any funds to withdraw? To get this $10 released I have to wager $300 eventually. The whole thing is ridiculous.
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Whoa... 13 hours to not make $10 is even worse.
I think if the moderator pay got tripled (again), we'd almost be up to that level.
Quote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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You have to scale it. If you can play 130 hours a day, it is $100 per day.
Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBob
Not off topic This thread is about methods and I'm posting about my method. At least I'm posting something that's real and not some fantasy that you made up to parody me.
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Are you playing by OnceDear's method?
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Yes I am, I am playing Once Dear's method so this post is very much in accordance with this thread. Thank you OD for such a marvelous method of play.
Quote: billryanQuote: Dieter13 hours to make $10 sounds like about 75 cents an hour.
Ouch.
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You have to scale it. If you can play 130 hours a day, it is $100 per day.
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In the near future I plan on turning my clocks ahead so I can play 13,000 hours a day, that's the ticket. LOL
