Chasing Quads instead of Royals
May 20th, 2022 at 11:12:43 AM
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are royals logged somewhere? we could probably compare the metadata and figure out clusters or hot spots
May 20th, 2022 at 11:18:27 AM
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you mean on my game app, or my 2 royals in real life or johns 3 royals?
my 2 royals , 1 was at ballys ac got the royal took a break wife lost 1/3ish of my winnings played again same machine next day 10min later bam RF'ed a cool grand cash out and in Pa, played Deuces wild 3 card hold Rfed out of the blue i nodded and played another 100$ in jacks or better diamonds of Rf'ed noded again needed the cash cause i got laid off from work, went home 1900$ cash tax free winner that night, andrew said he gotten 40k royal flush off his free play! so im small potatoes compared to big dogs out there.
and on the app i played on my phone got royal flushed went to bed after, went on the bus to the casino played on my app again and what do you know another royal flush
that app does seem to follow the royal flush theory more so than the other app claiming the 7 shuffle single deck video poker game, cant win anything off the 7shuffler
my 2 royals , 1 was at ballys ac got the royal took a break wife lost 1/3ish of my winnings played again same machine next day 10min later bam RF'ed a cool grand cash out and in Pa, played Deuces wild 3 card hold Rfed out of the blue i nodded and played another 100$ in jacks or better diamonds of Rf'ed noded again needed the cash cause i got laid off from work, went home 1900$ cash tax free winner that night, andrew said he gotten 40k royal flush off his free play! so im small potatoes compared to big dogs out there.
and on the app i played on my phone got royal flushed went to bed after, went on the bus to the casino played on my app again and what do you know another royal flush
that app does seem to follow the royal flush theory more so than the other app claiming the 7 shuffle single deck video poker game, cant win anything off the 7shuffler
May 20th, 2022 at 11:24:10 AM
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No I mean IRL royal flushes. Then again casinos don't publish those for obvious reasons.
Also what's the fastest way to learn straight and flush penalties? I've just been keeping 4 face cards when dealt but sometimes a ten makes things pretty irritating. Aside from really obscure situations where there is a flush and a 9-straight penalty at the same time my play is pretty accurate
Also what's the fastest way to learn straight and flush penalties? I've just been keeping 4 face cards when dealt but sometimes a ten makes things pretty irritating. Aside from really obscure situations where there is a flush and a 9-straight penalty at the same time my play is pretty accurate
May 20th, 2022 at 11:35:13 AM
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i had more winning years on 97% machines with a little luck and best comps had good times did not play every day more like twice a month (per week if i was running hot)they lowered the pay table at my casino and tampered with the free play so i dont play there as much, im basing that off my gaming log i log amount of free play i get per trip and it was damn good eatin ranging from 500 to 1200$ free play stricly quarter player, never got no 200 dollar free play crummy atlantic city casinos or anything close to it atleast from a single joint, you seem to be stuck on the royal flush, i used to be stuck on it too, i let go i consider it a far away side bet you cant count on happening, but what you can hope for is 4 ducks or 4oak w/kixer and such, followed by good comps free play.
i know i sound like some players claiming to read patterns and crap but i swear i know which machines will beat you up like substract 200$ from your bankroll while other machines just randomly kix ya in the nuts every now and then.
and same for online sites and home apps and home programs of video poker, again climbing to 630 credits with a 80 credit buy in stands out and that 7 card shuffler app is ice freakin cold his very first version for android isn't that bad 4.1 but anything after that version is ice cold or could just be hi's and lows' per 10k hands im experiecing but doubtful
i know i sound like some players claiming to read patterns and crap but i swear i know which machines will beat you up like substract 200$ from your bankroll while other machines just randomly kix ya in the nuts every now and then.
and same for online sites and home apps and home programs of video poker, again climbing to 630 credits with a 80 credit buy in stands out and that 7 card shuffler app is ice freakin cold his very first version for android isn't that bad 4.1 but anything after that version is ice cold or could just be hi's and lows' per 10k hands im experiecing but doubtful
May 20th, 2022 at 11:57:50 AM
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imo jacks or better is the worst and best poker, worst because i saw everything revolves around the RF, like ghost n the shell quote once said over breed in 1 thing die slow and painful death like putting your eggs in 1 basket heck look at the crocs and aligators they can survive on land and water so best to spread your chances then hoping for 1 hand will never come, and best i mean great for comps/rewards but the jacks at my casino is poop think its 6/5 =/, one of my gaming books claim if you play 1,000$ through a 9/6 jacks or better machine have a 60% chance of seeing a jackpot, sounds great on paper but in real life it doesn't happen, more likely to exhaust your roll since were not 1000% perfect play players
May 20th, 2022 at 12:00:56 PM
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Quote: rektfastExactly, that would also be why people have observed slot machines hitting at the same times of day over and over again.
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This is probably coincidence more than anything else. A machine would have to have a periodicity of almost exactly 24 hours, or 24 hours divided by some integer, to do this. If the periodicity is, say, 10 minutes (which is 60 billion "spins" with a 100 MHz processing speed), then for any given time, it will hit once within five minutes of that time, every day.
Quote: MypowerinMyheadDon, what is the possibiltiies of hitting 3 royals with a constraint bankroll?
that John guy claimed to do it and went home a winner 100k cash, ive hit 2 royals within 20min each other, once in ac and other in pa but i dont play hardcore like most video poker players.
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There are far too many variables involved to calculate that in general. How many max bets is the constraint bankroll? What game (e.g. 9-6 Jacks or Better)? Is "perfect strategy" being used? Are the three Royals in the same "session", and if not, does the constraint reset after each one?
May 20th, 2022 at 12:03:56 PM
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i honestly dont know what John did, im assuming he went with 100$ free play got royaled on ,50 denom and moved to 2$ denom got royaled and then last play was 125$
so constraint a 100$ free play and shoot for 3 royals without ever reloading is probably the same as other style of gamble?
as follows
100$ roll jackpot 2grand > jackpot 8 grand > 100k jackpot end
its probably the same 1:1 prop he just got lucky?x3?
game was 8/5BP 99.17 (like it matters rf doesnt follow points, numbers or percentages)
so constraint a 100$ free play and shoot for 3 royals without ever reloading is probably the same as other style of gamble?
as follows
100$ roll jackpot 2grand > jackpot 8 grand > 100k jackpot end
its probably the same 1:1 prop he just got lucky?x3?
game was 8/5BP 99.17 (like it matters rf doesnt follow points, numbers or percentages)
May 20th, 2022 at 1:13:37 PM
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It's possible changing denomination makes the machine consider you a new player and give you a free taste again
May 20th, 2022 at 2:11:45 PM
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Quote: rektfastIt's possible changing denomination makes the machine consider you a new player and give you a free taste again
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(sigh)
"Free taste" is a gambler's fallacy, as far as I know.
I expect it does no more or less to help you than standing up and walking around the chair 3 times (clockwise in the northern hemisphere), while patting your head and rubbing your tummy.
May the cards fall in your favor.
May 21st, 2022 at 10:48:13 AM
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nope, just think of it like a craps table dice hiting the table creating a new RNG each time you hit the deal button
May 24th, 2022 at 9:12:06 AM
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Shouldn't there be public patents about how VP machines work?
And what if you make bad holds on purpose to condition the machine to think you are a bad player, then switch to optimal strategy in the same session and quit after the pity timer? Theoretically that should improve payback
And what if you make bad holds on purpose to condition the machine to think you are a bad player, then switch to optimal strategy in the same session and quit after the pity timer? Theoretically that should improve payback
May 24th, 2022 at 9:53:33 AM
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Quote: rektfastShouldn't there be public patents about how VP machines work?
And what if you make bad holds on purpose to condition the machine to think you are a bad player, then switch to optimal strategy in the same session and quit after the pity timer? Theoretically that should improve payback
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Tell us more about the pity timer. Could we find some really bad players and switch out just in time? How many good players would we need? Maybe three bad for every one good?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 21st, 2022 at 6:30:11 AM
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If the original post is wrong about chasing quads, what about pulling your money when you get quads in succession?
Quads occur once in about every 400 hands. What about a betting system that waits for multiple quads in the same 400 hand session?
For example, if you got four-of-a-kind and then another four-of-a-kind a few hands later, that would be a high quads frequency and you would cash out.
If you went a long time without quads, however, you would keep betting until you hit at least one four-of-a-kind to get your initial back.
Generally, a session that hits quads will at least recoup your initial money.
How would someone turn this into a workable betting system like Martingale?
Also does anyone have advice on how to stop missing low pairs when playing a high HPH? Do you read the cards out loud or what?
Quads occur once in about every 400 hands. What about a betting system that waits for multiple quads in the same 400 hand session?
For example, if you got four-of-a-kind and then another four-of-a-kind a few hands later, that would be a high quads frequency and you would cash out.
If you went a long time without quads, however, you would keep betting until you hit at least one four-of-a-kind to get your initial back.
Generally, a session that hits quads will at least recoup your initial money.
How would someone turn this into a workable betting system like Martingale?
Also does anyone have advice on how to stop missing low pairs when playing a high HPH? Do you read the cards out loud or what?
June 21st, 2022 at 6:51:50 AM
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Quote: rektfastIf the original post is wrong about chasing quads, what about pulling your money when you get quads in succession?
If your manner of play is more likely to win than lose, why stop at this point?
Quote:If you went a long time without quads, however, you would keep betting until you hit at least one four-of-a-kind to get your initial back.
Generally, a session that hits quads will at least recoup your initial money.
So... chase your losses until it stops being fun?
Quote:How would someone turn this into a workable betting system like Martingale?
Also does anyone have advice on how to stop missing low pairs when playing a high HPH? Do you read the cards out loud or what?
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Martingale requires bet size increases. Video poker is usually played at maximum bet size. Increasing bet size may require changing machines to redenominate.
Practice. There are apps and websites. Doing it right, slowly, can be preferable to doing it wrong quickly.
It really is a matter of repetition until your brain knows to associate the patterns you see with what should be done.
If you can find a way to get repetitions with minimal risk to your bankroll, like through an app or website, you may come out ahead.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 7:19:29 AM
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The OP was about assuming that machines were rigged against royals and ignoring them. The brain trust at wizardofvegas concluded that was not a good idea. I'm now suggesting a system in which you assume a set of 423 hands and if you hit quads multiple times during that set, you cash out. Most hands in VP are statistically irrelevant and do nothing but refund your bet, so they should be ignored. Likewise if you hit two royals during a set of 40,000 hands you should also cash out, but that is so rare as to not be a workable idea.
Some casinos don't offer comps for full-pay VP, so you could probably just "launder" the VP winnings through a low-risk slot machine or whatever to become +EV. 99.5% payback is less than one hundred, but I think that applying slots strategies like the five-spin method and playing during off-hours etc. could bring that to over 100.
Some casinos don't offer comps for full-pay VP, so you could probably just "launder" the VP winnings through a low-risk slot machine or whatever to become +EV. 99.5% payback is less than one hundred, but I think that applying slots strategies like the five-spin method and playing during off-hours etc. could bring that to over 100.
June 21st, 2022 at 9:47:12 AM
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Rekfast, either you believe the previous hands at VP have no influence on the next hand or you don’t. Think long and hard about that. Then you won’t need to ask us any more questions.
June 21st, 2022 at 9:55:42 AM
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In aggregate, the data should conform to what is mathematically expected. If you've played 40,000 hands without a RF, that doesn't mean you're going to hit a royal on the next hand. It's just a guideline.
I don't see how APs can claim that when you cash out doesn't matter. That's like telling someone who won the lottery that they should keep buying tickets. The problem is that people think you should play VP indefinitely and lose to the house edge when you could just stop when you're ahead and invest the profits or whatever. Most betting systems don't have a win condition, which is why they don't work.
Ultimately, I think playing fewer hands slowly at higher stakes makes more sense than playing like 80,000 hands for nickels and inevitably mis-clicking through two pairs or picking 10s 10d when you had three to a royal or whatever. "Perfect play" when you're only playing a couple of hands is trivial to achieve. It's only when you have really weird edge cases like four to a straight flush and a pair of Jacks at the same time that most people mess up.
Any idiot can play one hand of video poker, get dealt two Kings, keep both and make a profit. But if he's walking away in the green, is he really an idiot?
I don't see how APs can claim that when you cash out doesn't matter. That's like telling someone who won the lottery that they should keep buying tickets. The problem is that people think you should play VP indefinitely and lose to the house edge when you could just stop when you're ahead and invest the profits or whatever. Most betting systems don't have a win condition, which is why they don't work.
Ultimately, I think playing fewer hands slowly at higher stakes makes more sense than playing like 80,000 hands for nickels and inevitably mis-clicking through two pairs or picking 10s 10d when you had three to a royal or whatever. "Perfect play" when you're only playing a couple of hands is trivial to achieve. It's only when you have really weird edge cases like four to a straight flush and a pair of Jacks at the same time that most people mess up.
Any idiot can play one hand of video poker, get dealt two Kings, keep both and make a profit. But if he's walking away in the green, is he really an idiot?
June 21st, 2022 at 10:00:25 AM
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Quote: rektfastI don't see how APs can claim that when you cash out doesn't matter.
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After you cash out, are you going to play again?
Is something different about the last hand you played and the next hand you would have played? ... the next hand you do play?
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM
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Questions like that are the point of this forum lol.
Aside from the basics like only playing full-pay machines whose strategy you know during casino events with a player's card, there should really be some kind of overall bankroll strategy. Although I read a lot of posts about hold strategies in DDB or counting cards in blackjack or dice settings in craps, nobody ever talks about the metagame of gambling itself like when to stop, what to do with the money, etc.
Like, if a casino offered players the opportunity to bet on a coin flip that was weighted 51% in your favor, a gambler would play it forever. But then you have something like VP where you have 99.54% payback, and the same people will tell you not to stop while you're ahead.
It just makes no sense
Aside from the basics like only playing full-pay machines whose strategy you know during casino events with a player's card, there should really be some kind of overall bankroll strategy. Although I read a lot of posts about hold strategies in DDB or counting cards in blackjack or dice settings in craps, nobody ever talks about the metagame of gambling itself like when to stop, what to do with the money, etc.
Like, if a casino offered players the opportunity to bet on a coin flip that was weighted 51% in your favor, a gambler would play it forever. But then you have something like VP where you have 99.54% payback, and the same people will tell you not to stop while you're ahead.
It just makes no sense
June 21st, 2022 at 10:58:04 AM
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Quote: rektfastAlthough I read a lot of posts about hold strategies in DDB or counting cards in blackjack or dice settings in craps, nobody ever talks about the metagame of gambling itself like when to stop, what to do with the money, etc.
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Any good question like that will have but one answer: it depends.
If I'm playing video poker to earn drawing tickets to win a lifetime supply of chicken salad sandwiches, and the drawing closes at 3:00am, it doesn't make sense for me to start another hand at 3:01am. Something has changed. I no longer find the game interesting, because I can no longer win a lifetime supply of chicken salad sandwiches. (Mustard and mayo, thank you, and don't skimp on the grape leaves.)
If you're gambling for entertainment, stop when it isn't entertaining.
What to do with the money? There are some attractive savings bonds at the moment. There are likely some speculative real estate transactions if you won bigger than that. If you're smaller stakes, make sure all your bills are paid up. Money is fungible.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 12:02:43 PM
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Indeed.
I know it's frowned upon to use a cell phone while playing VP since someone could be recording or cheating, but are you allowed to log your hands?
I assume you can, since they let people use strategy cards.
It seems like keeping a hand record would be useful to know if you're "due" for quads or a flush or whatever, although that sort of thinking is technically fallacious.
I was just playing a practice round of VP at pretty good accuracy and had only a few credits left when I "miraculously" hit quads and went right back to my starting credit amount just as expected from full-pay VP.
Honestly I'm not even convinced that the skill in VP is edging out the extra hundredth of a percent by knowing when to hold suited Ace Ten and when to toss it, it's really more about knowing if you're statistically ahead of schedule on quads and royals and full houses and taking your money out before your luck equalizes with what would be mathematically expected.
I know it's frowned upon to use a cell phone while playing VP since someone could be recording or cheating, but are you allowed to log your hands?
I assume you can, since they let people use strategy cards.
It seems like keeping a hand record would be useful to know if you're "due" for quads or a flush or whatever, although that sort of thinking is technically fallacious.
I was just playing a practice round of VP at pretty good accuracy and had only a few credits left when I "miraculously" hit quads and went right back to my starting credit amount just as expected from full-pay VP.
Honestly I'm not even convinced that the skill in VP is edging out the extra hundredth of a percent by knowing when to hold suited Ace Ten and when to toss it, it's really more about knowing if you're statistically ahead of schedule on quads and royals and full houses and taking your money out before your luck equalizes with what would be mathematically expected.
June 21st, 2022 at 1:25:11 PM
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You are never due for a win.
The trials are independent.
It is unlikely to go a million hands without a royal flush, but this does not mean that your chances get better after 979,843 non-royals in a row.
The trials are independent.
It is unlikely to go a million hands without a royal flush, but this does not mean that your chances get better after 979,843 non-royals in a row.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 1:26:52 PM
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Let's just put it bluntly. It's an RNG that meets the requirements of the State of Nevada gaming laws. You can say you're due all day, every day, but you're not ever due.
June 21st, 2022 at 1:46:36 PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DF2GuWa72A
Ok, assuming Rob Singer is correct—and he is—let's try to make VP a winnable game.
First, we'll constrain the number of hands to defeat the 99.54% RTP due to house edge. So instead of playing INFINITY hands like some people suggest, let's play 423. 423 is the number of hands that four-of-a-kind should occur within, theoretically. Quads are easy to record and almost impossible to misplay. Generally every session you hit quads, you made money.
We need 423 times the wager as a bankroll for one set. So instead of giving our life savings to the casino in slow motion half a percent at a time, we now have a GAME that consists of 423 hands.
I'm assuming the player already knows how to play VP with very high accuracy, barring stupid nonsense like occasionally holding AT suited because the low cards are blocking busted straights on a Wednesday when the moon is in Gemini...
So we have a set of 423 hands. If we hit quads within those hands, we stop playing and record the set as a win. The optimal outcome would be to hit quads on the first hand and pull your money out.
While playing, you would use a strategy card. But instead of telling you what hands to keep, since you already know that, instead it reads:
Royal Flush 1 / 40,000
Four of a kind 1 / 423
Four Aces 1 / 5,761
Four Aces with a kicker 1 / 16,236
Four Deuces 1 / 4,909
2’s – 4’s 1 / 2,601
2’s – 4’s with a kicker 1 / 6,984
Full House 1 / 90
Flush 1 / 85
Straight 1 / 80
Straight Flush 1 / 9,150
So you would keep a running tally of the number of royals, quads, houses, flushes, and straights you've hit, plus what number hand you're on. This is effectively card counting, although conceptual in nature rather than measuring penetration within a shoe.
If you are ahead of schedule and in the green, you immediately stop playing the 423 hand set and record that set as a WIN.
If you never hit quads, you play out the 423 hands and cash out whatever is left, noting that set is a LOSS.
As the set continues, if you are behind schedule, you would perhaps opt for safe sub-optimal plays to "stay alive," such as ignoring three to a royal for a small pair.
Now since we have win/loss parameters, we can apply the Martingale method.
So if your last set was a LOSS, you double your previous wager. So instead of playing $1 a hand or whatever, now you play $2 a hand and play another set of 423. If that set loses again, you double your wager from $2 to $4, etc.
If your previous set was a WIN, you keep your wager the same and start a new set.
I believe the best way to play VP is some version of this method, but I'll keep thinking about it.
Ok, assuming Rob Singer is correct—and he is—let's try to make VP a winnable game.
First, we'll constrain the number of hands to defeat the 99.54% RTP due to house edge. So instead of playing INFINITY hands like some people suggest, let's play 423. 423 is the number of hands that four-of-a-kind should occur within, theoretically. Quads are easy to record and almost impossible to misplay. Generally every session you hit quads, you made money.
We need 423 times the wager as a bankroll for one set. So instead of giving our life savings to the casino in slow motion half a percent at a time, we now have a GAME that consists of 423 hands.
I'm assuming the player already knows how to play VP with very high accuracy, barring stupid nonsense like occasionally holding AT suited because the low cards are blocking busted straights on a Wednesday when the moon is in Gemini...
So we have a set of 423 hands. If we hit quads within those hands, we stop playing and record the set as a win. The optimal outcome would be to hit quads on the first hand and pull your money out.
While playing, you would use a strategy card. But instead of telling you what hands to keep, since you already know that, instead it reads:
Royal Flush 1 / 40,000
Four of a kind 1 / 423
Four Aces 1 / 5,761
Four Aces with a kicker 1 / 16,236
Four Deuces 1 / 4,909
2’s – 4’s 1 / 2,601
2’s – 4’s with a kicker 1 / 6,984
Full House 1 / 90
Flush 1 / 85
Straight 1 / 80
Straight Flush 1 / 9,150
So you would keep a running tally of the number of royals, quads, houses, flushes, and straights you've hit, plus what number hand you're on. This is effectively card counting, although conceptual in nature rather than measuring penetration within a shoe.
If you are ahead of schedule and in the green, you immediately stop playing the 423 hand set and record that set as a WIN.
If you never hit quads, you play out the 423 hands and cash out whatever is left, noting that set is a LOSS.
As the set continues, if you are behind schedule, you would perhaps opt for safe sub-optimal plays to "stay alive," such as ignoring three to a royal for a small pair.
Now since we have win/loss parameters, we can apply the Martingale method.
So if your last set was a LOSS, you double your previous wager. So instead of playing $1 a hand or whatever, now you play $2 a hand and play another set of 423. If that set loses again, you double your wager from $2 to $4, etc.
If your previous set was a WIN, you keep your wager the same and start a new set.
I believe the best way to play VP is some version of this method, but I'll keep thinking about it.
June 21st, 2022 at 4:57:21 PM
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Quote: rektfast
Ok, assuming Rob Singer is correct—and he is—let's try to make VP a winnable game.
Starting with a false premise will never result in a correct proof.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
June 21st, 2022 at 5:21:52 PM
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Quote: rektfastI'm assuming the player already knows how to play VP with very high accuracy,
Everything falls apart right here (well.. and when you say Rob Singer is correct). If the game is rigged as you say it is, what difference does playing with high accuracy make?
June 21st, 2022 at 5:50:39 PM
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I'm glad you asked!
I have played gacha games that were rigged before, such as Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Links. Once you know a game is rigged, you are the one with the advantage. For a while there were bots who would hack to view the top card of your deck and activate Conscription to steal your monsters. Unfortunately for him, I was playing Ancient Gears, and they can't be special summoned. Long story short, he got BTFO
As an aside, the shuffler in Duel Links is notorious for favoring rare cards over common cards. It is possible that VP shufflers also favor face cards over random trash like 2c and 4d.
I have played those fake video poker VLTs before, and even though it is rigged, you can still win. I played one hand, kept a pair of Kings, won like $15 or whatever and walked away. Never touched it again. If I had not known it were rigged, however, I might have kept playing and gone bankrupt. Knowing is half the battle!
I have played gacha games that were rigged before, such as Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Links. Once you know a game is rigged, you are the one with the advantage. For a while there were bots who would hack to view the top card of your deck and activate Conscription to steal your monsters. Unfortunately for him, I was playing Ancient Gears, and they can't be special summoned. Long story short, he got BTFO
As an aside, the shuffler in Duel Links is notorious for favoring rare cards over common cards. It is possible that VP shufflers also favor face cards over random trash like 2c and 4d.
I have played those fake video poker VLTs before, and even though it is rigged, you can still win. I played one hand, kept a pair of Kings, won like $15 or whatever and walked away. Never touched it again. If I had not known it were rigged, however, I might have kept playing and gone bankrupt. Knowing is half the battle!
June 21st, 2022 at 6:12:20 PM
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This is not worth the battle. Good luck at the machines.
June 21st, 2022 at 6:15:42 PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMyT-647qCg&list=PL-Es5RQJRg8VF35KMKMXkabX8GIjMV3r4&index=12
Consider what Rob is saying about adjusting his play to his bankroll. If you taught an artificial intelligence to play video poker, that is literally what it would learn to do.
People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.
But in the long run, YOU ALREADY LOST YOUR BANKROLL TO THE HOUSE EDGE.
There is an opportunity cost of .5% to playing VP in the first place!
The "game" of video poker is NOT keeping an open-ender or pair of aces. Any idiot can do that. The "game" is making money!
Consider what Rob is saying about adjusting his play to his bankroll. If you taught an artificial intelligence to play video poker, that is literally what it would learn to do.
People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.
But in the long run, YOU ALREADY LOST YOUR BANKROLL TO THE HOUSE EDGE.
There is an opportunity cost of .5% to playing VP in the first place!
The "game" of video poker is NOT keeping an open-ender or pair of aces. Any idiot can do that. The "game" is making money!
June 21st, 2022 at 6:23:25 PM
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I stepped into the HL Room nearby and found some VP with denominations of $1, $2, $5, $10, and $25. So the RF JPs would be 4000X each of those or $4K, $8K, $20K, $40K, or $100K.
One Jacks or Better game had four Jacks left on the screen and someone played 1 credit at the $25 denom, so they won 25 coins or $625. A straight flush would be a handpay at $1250.
One Jacks or Better game had four Jacks left on the screen and someone played 1 credit at the $25 denom, so they won 25 coins or $625. A straight flush would be a handpay at $1250.
June 21st, 2022 at 6:28:22 PM
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Interesting. As previously stated in this thread, a Martingale strategy in VP would require numerous denominations and bet sizes, which most machines "purely coincidentally" don't offer.
As stupid as Rob Singer sounds, he does have a point. If you have $5 left to your name and you can hold either KK or JsKsQs, you hold the KK and try to survive. If you own a gold mine or whatever, play the three to the royal. Who gives a damn?
Bankroll is inseparable from your play strategy. Hitting zero means the game is over. Getting a push can have theoretically infinite EV if your bankroll survives for another spin and you hit a RF or straight flush. I simply cannot comprehend how people don't consider money management part of VP strategy.
As stupid as Rob Singer sounds, he does have a point. If you have $5 left to your name and you can hold either KK or JsKsQs, you hold the KK and try to survive. If you own a gold mine or whatever, play the three to the royal. Who gives a damn?
Bankroll is inseparable from your play strategy. Hitting zero means the game is over. Getting a push can have theoretically infinite EV if your bankroll survives for another spin and you hit a RF or straight flush. I simply cannot comprehend how people don't consider money management part of VP strategy.
June 21st, 2022 at 6:37:29 PM
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How many coins are you likely to lose every 500 hands?
June 21st, 2022 at 7:03:03 PM
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Quote: rektfastAs an aside, the shuffler in Duel Links is notorious for favoring rare cards over common cards. It is possible that VP shufflers also favor face cards over random trash like 2c and 4d.
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I reasonably expect the shuffle algorithm for an unregulated game, like "Duel Links", to be somewhat different than what happens in a regulated, licensed video poker gambling machine with its certified, audited, and approved RNG and shuffle algorithm.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 7:21:27 PM
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Quote: rektfastPeople will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.
Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
June 21st, 2022 at 7:23:35 PM
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You find 101.4% payback machines, and throw enough millions of dollars through it, you'll be a winner! I'm told those machines went the way of the Dodo early this century.
June 21st, 2022 at 7:31:22 PM
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Quote: rsactuaryQuote: rektfastPeople will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.
Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
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Well the generally accepted strategy is perfect play at a full-pay machine plus comps equals a little over 100%. But I disagree that is workable since the house edge becomes more insurmountable the longer you play, it's like running a computer program with a memory leak.
A more accurate metaphor for video poker is that your bankroll is your hit points and you are trying to stay alive, like Dungeons & Dragons. So when you are at half or less bankroll (bloodied), you should alter your strategy to and play more conservatively until you recover closer to full health, whereas if you are already at full bankroll you can play more recklessly to see if it pays off like chasing Royals.
Has anyone tried to teach an artificial intelligence video poker? I'm very curious what they would do.
June 21st, 2022 at 7:36:19 PM
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Quote: rektfastQuote: rsactuaryQuote: rektfastPeople will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.
Said no one ever. Not even Bob Dancer.
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Well the generally accepted strategy is perfect play at a full-pay machine plus comps equals a little over 100%. But I disagree that is workable since the house edge becomes more insurmountable the longer you play, it's like running a computer program with a memory leak.
A more accurate metaphor for video poker is that your bankroll is your hit points and you are trying to stay alive, like Dungeons & Dragons. So when you are at half or less bankroll (bloodied), you should alter your strategy to and play more conservatively until you recover closer to full health, whereas if you are already at full bankroll you can play more recklessly to see if it pays off like chasing Royals.
Has anyone tried to teach an artificial intelligence video poker? I'm very curious what they would do.
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Sounds like a sure way to get wrecked fast.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
June 21st, 2022 at 8:31:57 PM
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Quote: rektfast
As stupid as Rob Singer sounds, he does have a point. If you have $5 left to your name and you can hold either KK or JsKsQs, you hold the KK and try to survive. If you own a gold mine or whatever, play the three to the royal. Who gives a damn?
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As stupid as I sound, I do have a point.
If you have $5 left to your name, you cannot afford to play video poker. I don't care one way or the other if you're making optimal holds or playing hunches; a $5 stack falls well short of the clown with arm extended saying you must be this tall to ride.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 21st, 2022 at 8:46:05 PM
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Likewise, if someone had a bankroll of $10,000,000 then they wouldn't be playing video poker either since they don't need the damn money.
That last $5 to your name is just an exaggeration, of course. The inverse is also true: if you have a lot of credits on the machine, you could toss a flush and go for four to a straight flush or whatever.
If we define one set of our Martingale strategy as 423 hands with quads as a "win," the required bankroll becomes exponential very quickly. Still, I think that since VP is a skill-based game, Martingale plus VP should be better than just putting your student loan on baccarat.
Are there other bankroll management or betting systems one could apply to VP?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_and_Infinite_Games
The problem is that mathematically perfect play treats video poker an infinite game, which it is not due to the house edge. It is a finite game, and for us to "win," we need to define a win condition.
That last $5 to your name is just an exaggeration, of course. The inverse is also true: if you have a lot of credits on the machine, you could toss a flush and go for four to a straight flush or whatever.
If we define one set of our Martingale strategy as 423 hands with quads as a "win," the required bankroll becomes exponential very quickly. Still, I think that since VP is a skill-based game, Martingale plus VP should be better than just putting your student loan on baccarat.
Are there other bankroll management or betting systems one could apply to VP?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_and_Infinite_Games
The problem is that mathematically perfect play treats video poker an infinite game, which it is not due to the house edge. It is a finite game, and for us to "win," we need to define a win condition.
June 21st, 2022 at 10:53:55 PM
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Quote: rektfast
If we define one set of our Martingale strategy as 423 hands with quads as a "win," the required bankroll becomes exponential very quickly. Still, I think that since VP is a skill-based game, Martingale plus VP should be better than just putting your student loan on baccarat.
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Ok, I'll bite here, exactly what are you trying to do?
if we even entertain doing Martingale on VP, you are betting 5120 credits the 11th/423rd hand, where in the world would a VP machine let you bet that much per hand? The bet amounts would get ridiculous very quickly, who has this much wealth that you would want to do this? If they had the bankroll to try this strategy the winning play would be to never even play because what am I doing in the casino betting 5120 on a video poker machine?
Quote: rektfast
Are there other bankroll management or betting systems one could apply to VP?
systems/37153-chasing-quads-instead-of-royals/9/#post853717]link to original post
Why would you even want to do a betting system on VP? Best bankroll management "system" is to have enough that you survive variance if you are playing a +EV game...
Quote: rektfast
The problem is that mathematically perfect play treats video poker an infinite game, which it is not due to the house edge. It is a finite game, and for us to "win," we need to define a win condition.
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The win condition is simply to play where you know your expected EV is greater than 100% over the long term and have the bankroll to survive the variance.
June 22nd, 2022 at 6:38:09 AM
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Quote: TheCapitalShip
Ok, I'll bite here, exactly what are you trying to do?
if we even entertain doing Martingale on VP, you are betting 5120 credits the 11th/423rd hand, where in the world would a VP machine let you bet that much per hand? The bet amounts would get ridiculous very quickly, who has this much wealth that you would want to do this? If they had the bankroll to try this strategy the winning play would be to never even play because what am I doing in the casino betting 5120 on a video poker machine?
I'm trying to make VP a winnable game. In DOTA 2, you win by destroying the enemy team's buildings. In Magic: the Gathering, you win by reducing your opponent's life points to zero. By creating a win condition for VP, we can stop bleeding money to the inherent house edge. What that would look like, I don't know. But I do know that playing VP forever is a losing proposition, especially since casinos are starting to remove comps and club rewards for full-pay.
Quote: TheCapitalShip
Why would you even want to do a betting system on VP? Best bankroll management "system" is to have enough that you survive variance if you are playing a +EV game...
Certainly you need a very high bankroll to survive bad quads frequency. With a set defined as 423 hands and doubling down after each loss, the logistics become insane very quickly unless you are running back-and-forth to the high limit room or you have a team of people all playing the system simultaneously.
Quote: TheCapitalShip
The win condition is simply to play where you know your expected EV is greater than 100% over the long term and have the bankroll to survive the variance.
In fact, bankroll management is the point. VP calculators telling you what to hold when they don't know how much money you have left is WRONG. Think of it like you're running a business. Your bankroll is your capital. Playing three to a royal is a long-term investment. If your bankroll is too low, your company would go bankrupt before that pays off. You need stable passive income (pushes) to stay solvent in the meantime.
As really bad example, let's say a machine is bugged and only deals low open-ended straight draws. The odds of completing it are one in six. What if you only had enough bankroll remaining for four or five bets? A VP calculator would tell you to keep the open-enders until you go bust because it assumes your bankroll is infinite. But anyone with an infinite bankroll wouldn't be playing video poker!
Martingale is an inherently losing strategy, but I'm all ears if someone knows a better betting system.
June 22nd, 2022 at 7:17:20 AM
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This.Quote: TheCapitalShip
The win condition is simply to play where you know your expected EV is greater than 100% over the long term and have the bankroll to survive the variance.
It really is that simple.
Just take the time to find good stuff to play, make the correct holds, and you will make money. You don't need much of a bankroll if you invest in the right plays.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 22nd, 2022 at 7:46:53 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfThis.Quote: TheCapitalShip
The win condition is simply to play where you know your expected EV is greater than 100% over the long term and have the bankroll to survive the variance.
It really is that simple.
Just take the time to find good stuff to play, make the correct holds, and you will make money. You don't need much of a bankroll if you invest in the right plays.
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And add bankroll management. Define your bankroll. Define the edge you are playing with. Define the variance of the play. Use Kelly Criterion to define your bet size. Win money.
If you find a $5 VP machine that requires 5 coins and you play at a 1% advantage, but only walk in with $200, you are still very likely to go broke. If it’s a twenty five cents a spin, with the same 1% edge, your chances for success are much better.
June 22nd, 2022 at 7:53:04 AM
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Well for one set of this strategy, you would need 423 times the amount of your wager in bankroll. I was just doing a test run and within 50 hands of perfect play I hit quads, taking my initial 100 credits to 270. So with this Quads Frequency betting system, I would have pulled my money because we hit four-of-a-kind extremely early compared to later in the 423 hand set.
https://i.imgur.com/8bpb7yX.png
Some interesting questions come up: if we define a set as 423 hands, should we only pursue draws that are expected to occur within that band? Early on, I had three to a royal/four to a flush. I went with the royal and, obviously, missed. But let's say this set of 423 hands was the very last game of VP I would ever play. Perhaps I would instead go for the four to a flush and try to sustain my bankroll until I hit quads, which would put my bankroll back in the green.
I assume casinos allow you to log your hands, but I'm not sure. Technically they may frown upon it as a sort of RNG audit. I don't know. But I definitely think that seeing if you're ahead compared to the expected number of straights, flushes, quads, etc. and pulling your money before your luck equalizes is the way to go.
Also obviously playing perfectly for 423 hands is much easier than trying to play perfectly forever.
https://i.imgur.com/8bpb7yX.png
Some interesting questions come up: if we define a set as 423 hands, should we only pursue draws that are expected to occur within that band? Early on, I had three to a royal/four to a flush. I went with the royal and, obviously, missed. But let's say this set of 423 hands was the very last game of VP I would ever play. Perhaps I would instead go for the four to a flush and try to sustain my bankroll until I hit quads, which would put my bankroll back in the green.
I assume casinos allow you to log your hands, but I'm not sure. Technically they may frown upon it as a sort of RNG audit. I don't know. But I definitely think that seeing if you're ahead compared to the expected number of straights, flushes, quads, etc. and pulling your money before your luck equalizes is the way to go.
Also obviously playing perfectly for 423 hands is much easier than trying to play perfectly forever.
June 22nd, 2022 at 8:52:14 AM
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Quote: rektfastWell for one set of this strategy, you would need 423 times the amount of your wager in bankroll. I was just doing a test run and within 50 hands of perfect play I hit quads, taking my initial 100 credits to 270. So with this Quads Frequency betting system, I would have pulled my money because we hit four-of-a-kind extremely early compared to later in the 423 hand set.
https://i.imgur.com/8bpb7yX.png
Some interesting questions come up: if we define a set as 423 hands, should we only pursue draws that are expected to occur within that band? Early on, I had three to a royal/four to a flush. I went with the royal and, obviously, missed. But let's say this set of 423 hands was the very last game of VP I would ever play. Perhaps I would instead go for the four to a flush and try to sustain my bankroll until I hit quads, which would put my bankroll back in the green.
I assume casinos allow you to log your hands, but I'm not sure. Technically they may frown upon it as a sort of RNG audit. I don't know. But I definitely think that seeing if you're ahead compared to the expected number of straights, flushes, quads, etc. and pulling your money before your luck equalizes is the way to go.
Also obviously playing perfectly for 423 hands is much easier than trying to play perfectly forever.
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Bold added. The problem is that unless “pull your money” means “never play VP again” then you haven’t “pulled your money.” Whether you take a break from playing VP for a year or a day or a trip to the bathroom, the math doesn’t care about the breaks. Sessions do not affect expected outcomes.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
June 22nd, 2022 at 9:15:32 AM
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Not necessarily. An AP video poker player's profession isn't video poker: it's gambling. They're only playing VP because they think they're going to make money, not because they think video poker has amazing graphics and gameplay.
You could be playing 8/6 VP and the casino down the street just added a 9/6 machine, so you pull your money and go there. Or XLM is down 10% on the day so you pull your money and buy 5,000 to resell later that week. There's an infinite number of things to gamble on. The optimal way to make money is a series of good decisions, buying low and selling high, and those plays are usually only obvious in hindsight. Like what if you were ahead on VP so you cashed out and bought 50 copies of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer while it was only $50.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Modern+Horizons+2/Ragavan+Nimble+Pilferer#online
The reason casinos give comps is because they want you to stay until you lose your money. If the players had the advantage, they would pay you to leave. There's nothing stopping someone from making a few grand on VP and investing it in gold stocks or video cards or something, then deciding to play again later. The purpose of money is to make more money.
You could be playing 8/6 VP and the casino down the street just added a 9/6 machine, so you pull your money and go there. Or XLM is down 10% on the day so you pull your money and buy 5,000 to resell later that week. There's an infinite number of things to gamble on. The optimal way to make money is a series of good decisions, buying low and selling high, and those plays are usually only obvious in hindsight. Like what if you were ahead on VP so you cashed out and bought 50 copies of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer while it was only $50.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Modern+Horizons+2/Ragavan+Nimble+Pilferer#online
The reason casinos give comps is because they want you to stay until you lose your money. If the players had the advantage, they would pay you to leave. There's nothing stopping someone from making a few grand on VP and investing it in gold stocks or video cards or something, then deciding to play again later. The purpose of money is to make more money.
Last edited by: rektfast on Jun 22, 2022
June 22nd, 2022 at 10:47:14 AM
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Quote: rektfastNot necessarily. An AP video poker player's profession isn't video poker: it's gambling. They're only playing VP because they think they're going to make money, not because they think video poker has amazing graphics and gameplay.
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A "pure" AP VP player doesn't play VP because they "think" they are going to make money, they are playing it because they have determined their EV is above 100% in the long term and they can survive the downswings over hundreds of thousands of hands.
Also some people do like VP for the gameplay...I sure do, I never cared for the pretty graphics of slot machines, I just like playing games with a skill element (and mind you I'm no AP I'm playing 8/5 JoB for 25 cents a bet at my current bankroll)
Quote: rektfast
You could be playing 8/6 VP and the casino down the street just added a 9/6 machine, so you pull your money and go there. Or XLM is down 10% on the day so you pull your money and buy 5,000 to resell later that week. There's an infinite number of things to gamble on. The optimal way to make money is a series of good decisions, buying low and selling high, and those plays are usually only obvious in hindsight. Like what if you were ahead on VP so you cashed out and bought 50 copies of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer while it was only 50$.
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Video Poker and investing isn't even remotely comparable (unless we talking about speculating on options, which isn't relevant to this discussion). Let's take your way of thinking though, I have 1 thousand dollars, I go play the minimum amount of hands I can until I'm ahead in 423 hands. I hit a quad in the 1st hand, cool, I go reinvest the 120$ into an investment, eventually I'm going to have a session where I never hit a quad and I'm a loser that session, eventually I'm going to lose that entire 1 thousand dollars eventually, and all the "profit" I invested into stocks didn't make me a winner, just lose slightly less, you know what's better? Just taking that entire 1 thousand dollars and investing it into a company with long term outlook instead of playing VP with it.
Quote: rektfast
The reason casinos give comps is because they want you to stay until you lose your money. If the players had the advantage, they would pay you to leave. There's nothing stopping someone from making a few grand on VP and investing it in gold stocks or video cards or something, then deciding to play again later. The purpose of money is to make more money.
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You're missing one piece here, the more you play a negative EV game no matter how many short term gains you have, you're going to eventually lose your entire bankroll, then your "strategy" where you invested your short term VP gain into stocks fails because you are now having to rebuild your bankroll again.
I can respect wanting to find a way to win at VP, but you are barking up the wrong tree and way overthinking how to do it, It REALLY is as simple as I made it sound, find a game that is +EV, get bankroll to survive variance, make the optimal play that'll give you the most EV long term, and go to town.
June 22nd, 2022 at 11:29:56 AM
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Mathematically perfect long-run play ignores the time value of money. Even putting aside inflation, would you rather have a royal ten years from now or a flush today? Someone said once, if casinos throw people out for counting cards in blackjack, why don't they throw people out for playing machine-perfect VP?
June 22nd, 2022 at 11:36:36 AM
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Quote: rektfastMathematically perfect long-run play ignores the time value of money. Even putting aside inflation, would you rather have a royal ten years from now or a flush today? Someone said once, if casinos throw people out for counting cards in blackjack, why don't they throw people out for playing machine-perfect VP?
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I find rather odd that you don’t think a +EV game is worth beating, but think a betting system on a -EV game can.
Go find the +EV game and play your 443 round Marty strategy on it. Best of both worlds!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
June 22nd, 2022 at 12:15:15 PM
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Well, everyone knows Martingale is flawed. Have people tested every betting system with VP to see if one works? I guess Paroli doesn't work either since it's just Martingale in reverse.
What if you think of hitting quads or not in 423 hands like playing the pass line in craps? That should be a similar enough comparison.
What if you think of hitting quads or not in 423 hands like playing the pass line in craps? That should be a similar enough comparison.
