NewtoTown
NewtoTown
Joined: Aug 22, 2019
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 75
January 26th, 2020 at 7:17:09 PM permalink
Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000? I've been able to create some do-it-yourself ways to get that to happen, but of course its just luck and a matter of what data set one tests against.

Are there any good systems for craps that can use a small bankroll, like $5,000, and still have a decent chance at a real run before it turns?

Thank you.

I know the above question may seem like a dumb one, but it would seem there would be some systems that are better than others.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 4033
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 26th, 2020 at 8:56:39 PM permalink
Since the more money you bet, the more you expose to the house edge, the "best system" for craps is to be able to bet as much in odds as you can, since the house edge is zero. For example, with a $5000 bankroll, if you can get 100x odds, bet 50 on pass and 4950 on odds. Okay, it's pretty much "one bet, all or nothing," but you asked what was the best system.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 26th, 2020 at 10:36:41 PM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown

Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000?
I've been able to create some do-it-yourself ways to get that to happen, but of course its just luck and a matter of what data set one tests against.

Are there any good systems for craps that can use a small bankroll, like $5,000, and still have a decent chance at a real run before it turns?

using very high odds, one would have close to a 25% chance of success.
(5k/20k)
That is really PATHETIC by most standards.
1 in 4
of course, most systems are PATHETIC (most would not agree on that)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 2371
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambitNewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 12:06:14 AM permalink
The "Think System" from The Music Man.

So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
WTflush
WTflush
Joined: Jan 27, 2020
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 21
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 4:35:57 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Since the more money you bet, the more you expose to the house edge, the "best system" for craps is to be able to bet as much in odds as you can, since the house edge is zero. For example, with a $5000 bankroll, if you can get 100x odds, bet 50 on pass and 4950 on odds. Okay, it's pretty much "one bet, all or nothing," but you asked what was the best system.


Truth.^

If you're deadset on playing craps, don't pass with max odds is the best shot. Still, very unlikely to quadruple your $ in any -EV game. Maybe some positive EV craps variations could still be found somewhere, but even then the edge is tiny and it would be kind of insane to risk your whole bankroll on one bet.

If you are placing a bet with a negative expectation you are most likely going to lose money with any "system".
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 165
  • Posts: 8866
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 8:02:27 AM permalink
How willing are you to lose the $5,000?
Two straight wins if you let it all ride gets it done so it's pretty simple if you go that route. I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.
The more hands you play, the better the chances are that the house edge will catch up with you. The fewer hands you play, the better chance of beating it.
SiegfriedRoy
SiegfriedRoy
Joined: Sep 23, 2014
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 410
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 8:41:36 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

How willing are you to lose the $5,000?
Two straight wins if you let it all ride gets it done so it's pretty simple if you go that route. I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.
The more hands you play, the better the chances are that the house edge will catch up with you. The fewer hands you play, the better chance of beating it.



I have a friend who is very unorthodox with his gambling, but I say he has a very similar view and play as you previously mentioned. Ever since college, when we used to come to Vegas, he saw gambling as an opportunity to double his money or lose it all. He just didnít see the entertainment of playing for hours. He used to bet his whole bankroll around $300 at that time and bet it all in one hand of bacarrat. Win or lose he didnít play the rest of the trip, and he just sat back at the tables with us and drank for free when the cocktail waitresses came around. Weíre in our late 30s now, and he still does the same crap but he bets $5000 on one hand in the beginning of the trip. Whether he wins or not, heís still very disciplined and will not play for the rest of the trip. If he loses, he just sits back with us and drinks for free. Pits and other player donít like him because he comes in with $5K and take a few moment to change into chips and just plays one hand. Dealers donít like him because when he does win, he doesnít tip. Heís an odd fella, but his logic is that heís not a AP, so the longer he plays, he will eventually be beaten by the HE and will likely lose all of his money by the end of the trip. If he takes a chance on a short-term near coin-flip, he has a chance of winning. I get his point of view, but he just doesnít see it as much of an entertainment.
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 4022
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 9:15:24 AM permalink
Quote: SiegfriedRoy

I have a friend who is very unorthodox with his gambling, but I say he has a very similar view and play as you previously mentioned. Ever since college, when we used to come to Vegas, he saw gambling as an opportunity to double his money or lose it all. He just didnít see the entertainment of playing for hours. He used to bet his whole bankroll around $300 at that time and bet it all in one hand of bacarrat. Win or lose he didnít play the rest of the trip, and he just sat back at the tables with us and drank for free when the cocktail waitresses came around. Weíre in our late 30s now, and he still does the same crap but he bets $5000 on one hand in the beginning of the trip. Whether he wins or not, heís still very disciplined and will not play for the rest of the trip. If he loses, he just sits back with us and drinks for free. Pits and other player donít like him because he comes in with $5K and take a few moment to change into chips and just plays one hand. Dealers donít like him because when he does win, he doesnít tip. Heís an odd fella, but his logic is that heís not a AP, so the longer he plays, he will eventually be beaten by the HE and will likely lose all of his money by the end of the trip. If he takes a chance on a short-term near coin-flip, he has a chance of winning. I get his point of view, but he just doesnít see it as much of an entertainment.



Next time you go with him, see if you can at least get him to try the half-bankroll betting system.
SiegfriedRoy
SiegfriedRoy
Joined: Sep 23, 2014
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 410
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTown
January 27th, 2020 at 9:33:26 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Next time you go with him, see if you can at least get him to try the half-bankroll betting system.



I will forward it to him. I think heíll like it.
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 1402
Thanks for this post from:
NewtoTownOnceDear
January 27th, 2020 at 9:49:35 AM permalink
It's not any better or any worse than any other system long term, but if you are willing to lose it it all, I would just reverse martingale it for two bets.

Bet 5k (win)
Bet 10K (win)

If you win both bets you will be at 20k. If you lose either you would be bust. This is the quickest and least painful way to get to your goal or bust. And, making fewer bets is better.

  • Jump to: