What systems are best?

Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000? I've been able to create some do-it-yourself ways to get that to happen, but of course its just luck and a matter of what data set one tests against.

Are there any good systems for craps that can use a small bankroll, like $5,000, and still have a decent chance at a real run before it turns?

Thank you.

I know the above question may seem like a dumb one, but it would seem there would be some systems that are better than others.

Since the more money you bet, the more you expose to the house edge, the "best system" for craps is to be able to bet as much in odds as you can, since the house edge is zero. For example, with a $5000 bankroll, if you can get 100x odds, bet 50 on pass and 4950 on odds. Okay, it's pretty much "one bet, all or nothing," but you asked what was the best system.

Quote: NewtoTown

Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000?
I've been able to create some do-it-yourself ways to get that to happen, but of course its just luck and a matter of what data set one tests against.

Are there any good systems for craps that can use a small bankroll, like $5,000, and still have a decent chance at a real run before it turns?

using very high odds, one would have close to a 25% chance of success.
(5k/20k)
That is really PATHETIC by most standards.
1 in 4
of course, most systems are PATHETIC (most would not agree on that)

The "Think System" from The Music Man.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Since the more money you bet, the more you expose to the house edge, the "best system" for craps is to be able to bet as much in odds as you can, since the house edge is zero. For example, with a $5000 bankroll, if you can get 100x odds, bet 50 on pass and 4950 on odds. Okay, it's pretty much "one bet, all or nothing," but you asked what was the best system.

Truth.^

If you're deadset on playing craps, don't pass with max odds is the best shot. Still, very unlikely to quadruple your $ in any -EV game. Maybe some positive EV craps variations could still be found somewhere, but even then the edge is tiny and it would be kind of insane to risk your whole bankroll on one bet.

If you are placing a bet with a negative expectation you are most likely going to lose money with any "system".

How willing are you to lose the $5,000?
Two straight wins if you let it all ride gets it done so it's pretty simple if you go that route. I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.
The more hands you play, the better the chances are that the house edge will catch up with you. The fewer hands you play, the better chance of beating it.

Quote: billryan

How willing are you to lose the $5,000?
Two straight wins if you let it all ride gets it done so it's pretty simple if you go that route. I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.
The more hands you play, the better the chances are that the house edge will catch up with you. The fewer hands you play, the better chance of beating it.

I have a friend who is very unorthodox with his gambling, but I say he has a very similar view and play as you previously mentioned. Ever since college, when we used to come to Vegas, he saw gambling as an opportunity to double his money or lose it all. He just didn’t see the entertainment of playing for hours. He used to bet his whole bankroll around $300 at that time and bet it all in one hand of bacarrat. Win or lose he didn’t play the rest of the trip, and he just sat back at the tables with us and drank for free when the cocktail waitresses came around. We’re in our late 30s now, and he still does the same crap but he bets $5000 on one hand in the beginning of the trip. Whether he wins or not, he’s still very disciplined and will not play for the rest of the trip. If he loses, he just sits back with us and drinks for free. Pits and other player don’t like him because he comes in with $5K and take a few moment to change into chips and just plays one hand. Dealers don’t like him because when he does win, he doesn’t tip. He’s an odd fella, but his logic is that he’s not a AP, so the longer he plays, he will eventually be beaten by the HE and will likely lose all of his money by the end of the trip. If he takes a chance on a short-term near coin-flip, he has a chance of winning. I get his point of view, but he just doesn’t see it as much of an entertainment.

Quote: SiegfriedRoy

I have a friend who is very unorthodox with his gambling, but I say he has a very similar view and play as you previously mentioned. Ever since college, when we used to come to Vegas, he saw gambling as an opportunity to double his money or lose it all. He just didn’t see the entertainment of playing for hours. He used to bet his whole bankroll around $300 at that time and bet it all in one hand of bacarrat. Win or lose he didn’t play the rest of the trip, and he just sat back at the tables with us and drank for free when the cocktail waitresses came around. We’re in our late 30s now, and he still does the same crap but he bets $5000 on one hand in the beginning of the trip. Whether he wins or not, he’s still very disciplined and will not play for the rest of the trip. If he loses, he just sits back with us and drinks for free. Pits and other player don’t like him because he comes in with $5K and take a few moment to change into chips and just plays one hand. Dealers don’t like him because when he does win, he doesn’t tip. He’s an odd fella, but his logic is that he’s not a AP, so the longer he plays, he will eventually be beaten by the HE and will likely lose all of his money by the end of the trip. If he takes a chance on a short-term near coin-flip, he has a chance of winning. I get his point of view, but he just doesn’t see it as much of an entertainment.

Next time you go with him, see if you can at least get him to try the half-bankroll betting system.

Quote: TigerWu

Next time you go with him, see if you can at least get him to try the half-bankroll betting system.

I will forward it to him. I think he’ll like it.

It's not any better or any worse than any other system long term, but if you are willing to lose it it all, I would just reverse martingale it for two bets.

Bet 5k (win)
Bet 10K (win)

If you win both bets you will be at 20k. If you lose either you would be bust. This is the quickest and least painful way to get to your goal or bust. And, making fewer bets is better.

Quote: billryan

How willing are you to lose the $5,000?
Two straight wins if you let it all ride gets it done so it's pretty simple if you go that route. I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.

I'd lean away from BJ because of possible split/double situations. OP doesn't sound like he would have reserves to do a split or double down. If you can't split or double down, I would think Bacc or Craps would be a better way to try to "quadruple up."

Quote: Joeman

I'd lean away from BJ because of possible split/double situations. OP doesn't sound like he would have reserves to do a split or double down. If you can't split or double down, I would think Bacc or Craps would be a better way to try to "quadruple up."

Splitting and doubling down are long term plays. Not important in the short run.
There is no harm if you don't double up on an 11. In fact, your chances of winning increase if you don't double a hand. Many splits are defensive. Meaningless in the short run.

If you have a lot of time, I would divide that $5000 into 12 $400 sessions of 25 bets each and try to turn that $400 into $2000 by winning 25 bets for 100 extra bets at that buy-in level. Keep working on increasing the store of extra bets, and spend a session or two at double those buy-ins and try to set a winning path there. If you keep winning, eventually you'll get to the turn $4,000 to $20,000 level. I'm going with 2 DP with Odds, then PL with Odds per shooter (odds are 1-3X).

Wait until you see a streak and then bet with the streak. Stop before the streak ends.

This sounds interesting, but can you elaborate a bit more.

A $400 session divided into 25 bets would be $16 per bet? (25 x $16 = $400 session), or did I get this step wrong?

Regarding how to bet:

$16 on DP with odds, and regardless of whether this wins or loses repeat a second time (I assume this is what 2DP mens), then switch to P line with odds at (1 to 3x odds).

How do I decide whether to use 1x, 2x or 3x odds on the P bet?

Also, regardless of whether I win on the P line, do I switch back to two flat bets of $16 on DP with 1x odds?

I probably did not at all understand the methods you referred to regarding "going with 2 DP with Odds, then PL with Odds per shooter (odds are 1-3X)"... sorry if I got it wrong.

Hopefully you can give some examples, like:

$16 on DP (and if the point is a 10, lay odds of $32), then if this loses (or wins), repeat for one more decision, then switch to P line for $16 with 1x odds (of $16).

Also, I did not understand this part: "try to turn that $400 into $2000 by winning 25 bets for 100 extra bets at that buy-in level."

If I lose (or win) do I increase my buy in?

So sorry if I messed this all up entirely, but it really is of interest to me to learn this.

Also, if by some chance I got the above right, do I ever compound my bets to a higher level?

And, if I lose $400 session buy in, then repeat with the next of 12 (11 remaining) buy ins of $400?

Thanks, hope to hear back on this.

How will I know it is a streak till after it is too late and the streak has passed? Example, 6 in 10 pass bets win, would this constitute a streak, and then I bet it? Wouldn't it be too late to try something like this? Sorry if I messed up what you were referring to. Will wait for details.

Quote: NewtoTown

How will I know it is a streak till after it is too late and the streak has passed? Example, 6 in 10 pass bets win, would this constitute a streak, and then I bet it? Wouldn't it be too late to try something like this? Sorry if I messed up what you were referring to. Will wait for details.

It was a joke in reference to some other members of the forum. You're right in that you can't know a streak until it is over.

Very funny :-) It went right over my head :-) Good one!

A new shooter is up. I bet Don't Pass, and keep betting Don't Pass until a point is established, then I add odds. If it wins, there will be a new shooter soon; if it loses, I make another Don't Pass bet and when it gets established I'll put odds on it. If it wins, I'll be near even for the round; if it loses, I'll switch to the Pass Line, then add odds to that bet. This way I only lose 3 odds bet per shooter at most, and winning on the PL a few times brings me back up. The problem with betting the Don't Pass is that come-out shooters sometimes have a run of 5 or more 7-11's and you'll want to switch sides after the 3rd of those.

If I start with $120, I'll have 10 bets of $6 on the line and $6 odds. If I win $60, I'll raise my bet to double odds. If I win $90 more, I'll raise my bet to triple odds. Every 5 bets ahead I'll increase my bet, but reduce my bet below those same balances. I use clear lammers in my rail to divvy up the chips because counting chips is such an obsession.
I typically try to double or nothing my buy-in, but I have charts ready if I'm on a win streak. A 10 bet PL-only buy-in typically lasts 30-90 minutes before a double or nothing result. So I'd have more money for another buy-in or two.

When your odds bets are divisible by $6, you can get paid $3, $4, or $5 on the Don't side; and paid $6 ($5 odds on the 6,8), $9, or $12 on the Pass side. You can bet the PB 6 or 8 for $6 increments if you don't want to bet the line or the odds too.

If 5 out of 6 shooters never make their 2nd point, waiting for a hot shooter could be a losing game, so bet the Don't. I see more and more of it each trip. People putting $10 on the DP and $60 odds, then when they win a few, it's $15 DP with $90 odds on a 3x, 4x, 5x table; but they don't like to shoot the dice for some reason.

Thank you for the additional information/clarification.

How often do you double your buy-in versus lose it?

What is the logic behind how the system accumulates money? It seems to be a positive progression of sorts I am guessing.

How many times in a row is it possible to lose the buy-in? Can you martingale the buy-in if you lose the $120?

In other words, start with $120, and if that gets lost, then start with $240, (with 10 bets of $12 on the line and $12 odds.)

Of course the goal would be to recoup the original buy-in of $120 quickly as well as a profit by using the same type of positive progression as when you bought in the first session.

But if you lose the $240 buy-in then buy in for $480 using the same positive progression to recoup the $120 and the $240 buy-ins that were lost.

How many buy-ins in a row have you ever seen the system lose? 2x? 3x? I wonder if it would be possible to not double one's buy-in 5x consecutively.

I'm down about $600 total. My plan is to buy-in with $200, win 20 bets and I'll be at $800 and I can pay that $600 loan from myself back. But I've gotta get up early on a weekday because they raise the table minimums when I walk in the door now.

What are the table minimums raised to when you walk in? Are you in LV?

No, I'm nowhere near LV, and I won't be unless I become a potential whale. The table minimums at my local casino are $5, $10, and $15 for craps and they phase out the $5 when the first table gets full in the morning, but I can be grandfathered in at the higher amount but most people walk away within an hour. If I have enough of a buy-in I could hang around for an extra 3-4 hours. If the minimums are already raised I have to drive an hour or more to find another casino. The Blackjack tables used to be $5, $10, or $15 18 months ago, but now they're $25. The Baccarat tables are $25 or $50. So I've really gotta win several thousand dollars before I play other games at higher minimums. If I wanted to play on a $25 Baccarat Table, I'd need a 25 hand $1000 buy-in and win 30 hands to get to $8,000. I'd probably repeat that until I won $150,000 then I might venture into cashing out at over $10,000.

I have heard they still have $10 Craps games in downtown LV, would that be correct?

I have to be able to work your system to understand this, but this is very interesting:

"I'd need a 25 hand $1000 buy-in and win 30 hands to get to $8,000."

You're saying that with a $1,000 buy-in it might be possible to make $8,000?

What is the likelihood of losing three or four $1,000 buy-ins in a row?

Have you ever lost 4 buy-ins in a row prior to making back at least 1 or 2 of the buy-ins?

In other words, I think you mentioned you are using a $200 buy in. Have you ever been down $800 in total before making back some of the buy-ins?

Also, what is the most you have ever been up prior to going back down? I think you mentioned you have been down $600 before (although I may have read that incorrectly).

I'd really like to learn how to do what you are doing if I have a chance to turn a $1,000 into $8,000 but still need to work it out, which I will try this evening following your instructions as best I can.

Thanks again for the insight you are providing.

I've played a lot on WinCraps and I only get beginner's luck on that because it becomes a deadly "point 7-outer" when it gets bored of my betting. I've had a big win on a 3 point Molly with 3X odds, but eventually the machine went stone cold and I lost my many thousands. I've won big on Don't Pass with 3X odds at higher stakes, and I just amended that strategy to go to the PL after two Odds losses on the Don't side.

In a casino, with $6 starting bets I can win $60 with 6 wins in a row on the Pass Line with a progression. But waiting my turn to shoot really drains my rail sometimes. So I've had my best come-backs by betting the Don't Come on a 5 count system. Make a DC bet on the 4th, 9th, and 14th roll counting the shooter establishing a point as roll #1. I'd have 2-3 DC bets up at most.

My computer Baccarat game is giving me a hard time. I've got to figure out whether I want to do progressions for like a dozen wins in a row, or whether I'd be OK with just increasing my bet by double every 10 hands ahead. Like bet $30, win 5 hands, raise bet to $45, win 5 hands, raise bet to $60, etc.

Quote: NewtoTown

I have heard they still have $10 Craps games in downtown LV, would that be correct?

I have to be able to work your system to understand this, but this is very interesting:

"I'd need a 25 hand $1000 buy-in and win 30 hands to get to $8,000."

You're saying that with a $1,000 buy-in it might be possible to make $8,000?

What is the likelihood of losing three or four $1,000 buy-ins in a row?

Have you ever lost 4 buy-ins in a row prior to making back at least 1 or 2 of the buy-ins?

If I win to $8,000, I'll have eight 25 hand buy-ins (200 hands) of $1,000 each. Yes, it's possible to lose sessions, it's win goals or bust. Winning to $4,000 by winning 20 bets would be a more attainable win goal, but it's a gamble if I'll get to $8,000, or $0.

Thanks again for the reply. I was wondering if I started with a $200 buy-in then lost that and went to a $400 buy-in, then lost that, to $800 buy-in, $1600 buy-in and lastly a $3200 buy-in... have you ever seen 5 buy-ins lost before doubling the buy-in?

This would be kind of like a Martingale on the buy-ins... one buy-in doubling needed to recoup all losses plus a $200 profit.

I would lose 7 sessions before thinking about doubling my buy-in to catch up. Streaks happen.

Quote: NewtoTown

I have heard they still have $10 Craps games in downtown LV, would that be correct?

They have plenty of $10 and $5 craps in Downtown LV.

That's good to know! Most appreciated.

Quote: billryan

I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.

Skipping ties, the probability of winning a BJ hand with perfect play is 46.36%. The probability of winning a Pass Line or DP bet is 49.3%. The chance of winning two hands in a row is better with Craps than Blackjack.

Quote: NewtoTown

Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000?

I would try my luck with Baccarat, betting Banker, which wins 50.3% of all winning hands.

Split your bankroll into twenty units.

Win a hand, bet two units on the next hand. Win that, bet four on the next. Then start over. Win three consecutive hands and you win seven units, never risking more than a single unit from your starting bankroll.

Try it on these real hands:

BPPBBBBPBPPBBBBPPBPBBBPBPBBBPBPBBBBBBBBBPBBBBBBPPPBBBBBBB
PPBBBBBBBPPPBPPPBPPBPBBBPBPBPBBBBBBPBBBPBBBPPBPBPPBPPBBBBPBPB

What system would you personally use when playing Craps?

Regarding your answer/reply, that is very good to know. Thank you. Craps sounds much better but for which system or method of play?

Having said that, if one used Oscar's Grind for BJ and one counted lost Splits as 2 losses and lost Doubles as 2 losses or a Split with a Double that loses as 3 losses, would the Doubles and Splits as one progressed up on wins eventually catch up in a positive way (counting those (Ds and Ss) as two wins and moving up one unit at a time in spite of the double wins. Then with BJ keep the Blackjack wins (paid at 3/2) as extra wins as bonuses over and above the one unit win as each series completes?

I tested this on BJ with no doubles or splits and made it 32 hours before losing a bankroll of $5,000, but was up about the same amount when it lost. I say tested, as in online testing.

Thanks for the reply... I did try that system and 1326 and 1324 on a large batch of Craps data I collected, but it lost fairly quickly.

I tried Martingaling the buy-ins but to recoup 20 unit losses and that caught up quickly as well at certain points.

I have not tried this on Bac and have collected 124 hours of real time play.

QUESTION:
Would the house vig of 5% overtake the wins? Or not likely before doubling a bankroll?

Also, If one loses the 20 unit bankroll does one have to have a second bankroll in reserve? Or is this all all out attempt to double or quadruple my $5000 bankroll by diving it into one batch of 20 units (win or lose)? In other words, take 20 $250 units and go for it all out?

Hi Tanko,

I have a fair amount of decisions I have recorded for Bac and while there are a definitely batches where the suggested progression stays ahead of the losses, but the losses were too many too often... but there is merit too your suggestion for sure. I was thinking there must be some progression or combination of progressions that can take advantage of the stat you mentioned ("betting Banker, which wins 50.3% of all winning hands"). No progression wins over time it has been said, but there must be one out there doubling the bankroll happens more so that using other progressions.

Have you ever heard of any other progressions that could be well suited for Bac that use positive or neg/positive combination progressions, yet where the 5% commission does not eat up the profits?

Perhaps there is a way to combine the progression you suggested by stacking it with other progressions or raising the base unit periodically when the progression gets a certain amount of losses accumulated to the point where the primary progression can't recover?

I have some ideas on this but curious on ideas you may have to take advantage of the 50.3% of all winning hands on the Banker side...

Thanks again for the input and any other methods you can suggest. As I mentioned there were some great strings of wins using the 1,2,4 progression, but I feel like this can be layered somehow for a bit more safety to decrease the chance of losses too early on in case one hits a bad stretch where there are not 3 consecutive Bankers in a row.

Quote: NewtoTown

How often do you double your buy-in versus lose.

Hi. I reckon you need OnceDear's Rule of Thumb Appliys to ANY system and ANY low edge game.

But what is the best system with a positive ev?

Quote: DeMango

But what is the best system with a positive ev?

????
If you have a game with positive ev, then isn't kelly betting the best money management system?
Or are you expecting the system itself to be +ev with an underlying -ev game? Doesn't exist.

I've created a number of systems that work with a $20,000 bankroll and not busted across a lot of data. I was up over $80,000 (on paper) and ran out of data for one of the table games I kept logs on. I did test the same system across other data sets and simulated data and it held. That does not make it it a positive ev system, and yes, if I had the $20,000 I'd give a go, but I only have $6,000 which is why I am trying to figure out how to multiply that.

I also have a system that does insanely well across all data sets and requires a $50,000 bankroll while never exceeding house limits or the $50,000 bankroll, but that is even more out of my reach.

I'd partner with someone in a second if they wanted to split the profits 50/50.

Some people might think that $20k and $50 bankrolls are absurd, but I have friends who played on various high profile card counting teams from the 80s and 90s and they used to have $100,000 to $250,000 bankrolls because pro systems seem to require this to beat the following: A) very long negative strings of decisions (such as from my data set.... 11 losses consecutive 1 win and 12 more consecutive losses), and B) the system must be able to beat long and protracted stretches where the loss rate can be as follows 52% loss rate for one hour, 67% loss rate (i.e. 51 losses and 25 wins) one hour, 60% loss rate for one hour, 63%, 55% 52% 57% etc... hour after hour for 5-7+ hours.

If a system can navigate the short and long term nasty waters and beat all other environments such as chop, double chop, and so on, and one never has to change the rules to suit some new happening on the table, then I feel like the system is legit....

The systems I use on paper, from time to time get into the range of $1,000 to $2,000 bets and once even $4500 for a single bet, but have *never* exceeded the house limits that I see posted on the LV strip and most/many tables.

If only I could find a partner who had the extra cash, which I do not have, I would head to the strip today with them. I only have $6k to contribute.

I only moved to LV hoping to find a way to win with a lower bankroll but to no avail have I found one.

Nor, has anyone shown me a system that can actually even make it threw all my real live table data sets.... let alone double the bankroll. I have real time data I have collected across Bac, Craps and BJ and my systems crushes all of these games IF one has the bankroll for it.

I have determined that a system typically busts (as in loses a full bankroll) if you divided the bankroll by the hourly win rate (based on the unit size in use)... you'll rarely get past that number of hours (meaning won't double your money). Most systems seem to return a 10% to 50% profit rate and then go haywire (as in give it all back and more) because they just do not work. The above is crude empirical observation/calculation but often holds true, hence the reason I will not use any system in real life that can't beat the rigorous conditions I use for testing.

I feel like a system that has made it through hundreds and hundreds of hours of various games, not lost even 1 bankroll (and not once crossed the house table limits that are readily available all over LV) is the best I will ever do, but the catch... a $20,000 bankroll is required for one of my systems and $50k for the other... and this is out of my league. It took me two years just to save the $6,000 and I won't gamble live with it, as in truly risk it (because I would be under-capitalized for the know amount needed to use the systems I have created).

I replied below

Quote: OnceDear

????
If you have a game with positive ev, then isn't kelly betting the best money management system?
Or are you expecting the system itself to be +ev with an underlying -ev game? Doesn't exist.

too much variance in full Kelly. I don’t consider Kelly a system, just a number to plug into a system.

Quote: NewtoTown

I replied below

Hi again NewToTown,
You have no winning system!
That's the last time I'll react to your posts as you are clearly not going to pay any attention.
Good luck for the future.

Hi OnceDear,

Appreciate the feedback, as I mentioned and I did read the link to the info you posted. It was informative and I do not in general disagree with it, however what I posted was "I was up over $80,000 (on paper) and ran out of data for one of the table games I kept logs on. I did test the same system across other data sets and simulated data and it held. That does ***not*** make it it a positive ev system".

I also mentioned I have not come across any data set where it has lost, but the drawback with it is (if I can call it a drawback) is that like many card counters who need/use large bankrolls, this system requires that from time to time as well. It can go for 24 hours of play and not dig in more than a thousand to $5,000 but when it requires more, one either has it or not, hence the reason I can only paper test it, as I do not have the bankroll. I also mentioned I have never come across any system that works with "only" a $5000 bankroll.

No reply required, and contrary to what you stated, I read what you posted, had no issue with it and paid great attention to it, yet that does not in any way invalidate what I wrote.

Thank you for wishing me luck, but I don't believe in 'luck' per se, or I'd be out gambling right now. I am holding out for something that will not lose under any of the conditions I stated and also seeking a system that will work with a lesser bankroll than the one I have employed on paper that requires a large bankroll, as it has been the closest thing that I have encountered to something that has the potential to work. The data set it beats is very harsh and no other system (not one) has been able to beat it other than the one referenced.

I wish I could post the craps data I have collected over time and see if anyone else has a system that can crush through it. I seriously doubt anyone else has a system that can (using a lesser bankroll), but that is what I hold out hope for (the operative word is *hope*), and if I encounter one, I will use it.

Anyway, thank you again for all your replies/assistance. I truly love this forum and the openness people have in efforts to help each other. It's the best forum I've ever read and the only forum I ever joined.

I tried full Kelly and variations and none got through even 10% of any of the data I have. I had hopes for that it would but was saddened that it did not do much.

I thought you needed at least 1000 units in blackjack for a bankroll, at least that's what someone on YouTube said once. That means you'd be buying in for $60 with $6 bets and trying to double or quadruple your buy-in (with a $6,000 bankroll). If it's the last of your cash, I'd try to build up from the very bottom. I could last 3-5 hours on $60, or 15 minutes, I just never know. But the table minimums are usually higher. Big wins are rare, so maybe have a win goal of 10 or 20 units ahead per day, unless you are just cooking on a win streak.

On paper I've only ever been able to double and even multiply bankrolls 4-5x + when using large bankrolls. But I'm not giving up.

I do believe that what OnceDear wrote (OnceDear's Rule of Thumb) is true which means there is only about a 50% chance of doubling one's bankroll, but I also have seen decent evidence/data that it is possible to multiply a bankroll quite a few times across many typical data sets (including some that represent pretty close to every type of swing -- but -- only when using larger bankrolls have I been able to win consistently. I wouldn't have believed it myself if I hadn't tested the system on paper against very good data sets representative of just about every type of negative scenario possible and seen the accumulated wins surpass the bankrolls many times over.

I have not been able to duplicate that success using a smaller bankroll, which is what I would have to use. I am looking for something at least as reliable as the system that I have seen work when the bankroll is $20,000.

Quote: NewtoTown

On paper I've only ever been able to double and even multiply bankrolls 4-5x + when using large bankrolls. But I'm not giving up.

I do believe that what OnceDear wrote (OnceDear's Rule of Thumb) is true which means there is only about a 50% chance of doubling one's bankroll, but I also have seen decent evidence/data that it is possible to multiply a bankroll quite a few times across many typical data sets (including some that represent pretty close to every type of swing -- but -- only when using larger bankrolls have I been able to win consistently. I wouldn't have believed it myself if I hadn't tested the system on paper against very good data sets representative of just about every type of negative scenario possible and seen the accumulated wins surpass the bankrolls many times over.

I have not been able to duplicate that success using a smaller bankroll, which is what I would have to use. I am looking for something at least as reliable as the system that I have seen work when the bankroll is $20,000.

Your reference to on paper reminds me of a baseball manager during spring training. He was asked how his team looked for the upcoming season. He replied that his team looked good on paper. Then he added that unfortunately the team plays on the field, not on paper.

Good luck in the casino.

Quote: NewtoTown

I have a fair amount of decisions I have recorded for Bac and while there are a definitely batches where the suggested progression stays ahead of the losses, but the losses were too many too often...

You could also try a 1-2 progression instead of 124, but 124 is better.

Flat betting is always better and safer in the long run, but in a contest to see who could increase their bankroll the most over 100 hands, I would try my luck with Baccarat and a 124 progression.

Try it on these shoes posted by MDawg:

I agree with your comment. The only reason I don't play live is my bankroll is not large enough to play the very system you reference that is the only system I have tested that works 'so far' on paper.

I doubt with the bankroll I have there is any safe way to step it up to the level I need... and given that I am not the end all be all of knowledge, I was just seeking advice and input from experienced players as to whether there were any ways 'better' than others (or safer) to multiply $6,000 so I can get to the level I require to use the system I have played on 'paper'.

I also *agree* with Once Dear, at least in terms of random systems, that the formula presented holds true (perhaps/very likely, almost certainly, it holds true for ALL systems). I'm not actually disputing that at all. I am only saying that I have played viciously difficult and long stretches of real data and simulated data and not lost, but that has held true "IF" and only when the bankroll was $20k required (and on a side note, I never exceed "house" limits) 'on paper'). I surmise based on the formula presented by OnceDear my odds 'at best' of achieving an $80,000 paper win using a $20,000 bankroll are <20% (20k/(20k+80k) and then adjusting even lower to account for the house edge... *not* disagreeing with any of that. However, empirical observation was that the system also crunched through a much larger database than the real data I had collected in the casinos (which I paper played to make the $80k) and based on that additional data yielding even higher returns, much higher, I ask the question.... where is the point that empirical versus theoretical becomes a determinant? When is enough data statistically relevant, and when is it good enough for me (a very different question)?

My odds would be below 1% that I could have achieved (paper playing or not) what the system is doing (on paper) as I play it through large 'sim' data that I generated from three sources. That is my only point. Not that I disagree with formula presented by OnceDear (which I do not disagree. I hold the formula (or the concept of risk assessment) so dear (even before I knew of OnceDear's formula) that the reason I won't play my $6,000 is that the best I have been able to do on paper using any system encountered / presented is to my is double to triple it (on paper), and that means my odds of doing so in the casino are a bit less than 50% or less -- those being odds I am not willing to accept unless I can find a system that will achieve the same results on paper that my system requiring the $20k bankroll have achieved (yes, only on paper) and generates many, many bankrolls with even losing the original (i.e., 4 bankrolls one against actual data and many more against sim generated data)... so in conclusion, if I can find any system that can get through my real data that lets me generate 4x to 10x my bankroll using $6,000 I will risk that, even though this theoretically will not change the actual validity of the formula presented by OnceDear. I simply can't find a system that will meet that criteria...

As always, I appreciate any and all comments, as that's what makes this such a great and awesome forum. There are some very smart people on this forum and one hopes to learn from them, and incorporate that advice as one navigates the treacherous waters of gambling :-)

Thank you for input Tanko. I have tried a 1,2,4 a 1,2 a 1324 and a 1326 against my real data for Bac and while there are short stretches where I can easily double 'buy-ins', all have failed in terms of generating multiple bankrolls of $6,000 (i.e., I have not been able to get the $6,000 to $24,000) as yet. Having said that, I am trying to get 'any' system, using a $6k bankroll or less, to get through *ALL* of my data, which even though this does not mean the system is a positive ev system, it will be good enough for me.

I have been able to pick stretch of data and double the bankroll, but that was random, because there are plenty of other stretches of data where those progressions lose the $6,000.

I will "gamble" my $6,000 as soon as I can find any system that lets me get through all of my data and achieve a minimum of a 3.5 to 4x return, and preferably higher (like a 5x to 10x) ROI -- and also not even once lose the initial bankroll. Sounds impossible, but I have been able to achieve this using a larger bankroll than I have. I'm not a rich a guy at all and half doing this for fun.

I know, I know.... before anyone jumps on the above comments in a negative way... it is not easy to achieve what I stated... but since I am far from the smartest person 'in the room', I figure someone out there will know how to achieve on paper (using a $6k bankroll) "what I can with $20k"... I am, thus far, *not* able to or achieve on paper with $20k, only using $6k. I have a lot of real data and sim data for BJ, Bac and Craps to test through before I play live. I have validated that data to make sure that it is a realistic and representative cross section of what I am likely to encounter in the real world. I have seen a single set of 19 lost decisions in a row, longer than this if you include only one win. I have, real data, where the Wins on Pass line versus DP were 1/3 or less for well over an hour, and I've seen negative stretches of data where P versus DP for Craps (or Banker versus Player for Bac) lose at the rate of 60% or higher for close to 10 hours consecutive (~7.5 hours on one set of logged data) and (nearly 10 hours on another set of data, real logged data, not sim data).

This is why I say that if I can find any system that can get through all of my data (and not once lose a bankroll, while also multiply the BR *at least* 3.5 to 4 times, preferably more times), that will be *good enough* for me (even if it still is a neg ev system). I will take that risk for sure.