My sports bet tracking
Quote: RSQuote: 7crapsthat statement is totally IDIOTIC (showing complete lack of thought or common sense) and 100% FALSE.Quote: es330tdI never go over -300. Losing a -500 takes too long to win back.
It only takes one win (IF BET CORRECTLY - proper amount wagered) to gain a net win
-300
bet $3 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down $3. need to win $4 on next wager
another -300 requires $12 wagered to win $4 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
-500
bet $5 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down 5. need to win $6 on next wager
another -500 requires $30 wagered to win $6 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
the above example did NOT take too long to win back the 1st lost bet - it REQUIRED MORE to be wagered.
"Losing a -500 takes too long to win back."
nice try
I gather this was not what you wanted to get across
define HUGE and
when 'something' that is NOT HUGH becomes HUGE.
added: to the casual reader one would think risking $15 to win $1 is WAY better than risking $35 to win $1
they may not know a -500 wager should have a HIGHER probability of winning than a -300 wager.
better and HIGHER here are NOT defined.
We get it -- you and sally love your martingale on huge favs.
I'm kind of at a loss as to why he would post this thread AT ALL if he's not looking for comments or feed back as stated in original post. If that's the case, he can merely keep track himself. I can't understand why it needs to be public UNLESS he is looking for comments or feedback. Or another angle.
If his wish was granted..this thread would be nothing but a listing of his picks. No comments. He can do that with a sheet of paper and pencil at home.
Quote: es330td
Edit: to those following this thread, I don’t need or want comments or feedback. This is solely for me to have a public record of my action. I am not trying to prove anything to anybody but myself. Yes, the wagers are low. I am only trying to show net upward progress.
Quote: TDVegasI'm kind of at a loss as to why he would post this thread AT ALL if he's not looking for comments or feed back as stated in original post. If that's the case, he can merely keep track himself. I can't understand why it needs to be public UNLESS he is looking for comments or feedback.
The description of this subforum says “All betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own.”
I believe I have found a systematic methodology that works. I know that if I have made a mistake the people here will be very happy to point out how I am wrong and probably tell me how foolish I was to think I could do this in the first place. I am not so arrogant as to believe I know everything so while I don’t “need” feedback, I do expect to get it if I am doing something wrong.
Quote: es330tdThe description of this subforum says “All betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own.”
I believe I have found a systematic methodology that works. I know that if I have made a mistake the people here will be very happy to point out how I am wrong and probably tell me how foolish I was to think I could do this in the first place. I am not so arrogant as to believe I know everything so while I don’t “need” feedback, I do expect to get it if I am doing something wrong.
Ok..but you also specifically said you wanted NO comments or feedback. You said that with the expectation that people would comment anyway? Why say it in the first place?
Struck me as strange. I don't know if you have developed a system...but my instinct tells me why disclose any of it in the first place? It does you no good. If you've proven it to yourself as true....then any further discussion IN PUBLIC (or even private) is to your detriment. If you are winning....what else are you looking for?
Please don't tell me the next step is a "for sale" sign.
Quote: TDVegasPlease don't tell me the next step is a "for sale" sign.
If I have truly found a way to profit from a gambling system I would be a great fool to reveal what I am doing. I would be killing the goose that laid the golden egg as casinos would be certain to curtail action. My intent is to use this as a source of income for other purposes.
I have read enough here to know that systems claimed to have worked are picked at almost as a sport. I didn’t solicit commentary because I expected it. I know there are people ready to see me fail and are ready to tell me how and why. It is my intent to see what people are saying to find things I might have overlooked.
Edit: fixed grammar
Quote: es330tdIf I have truly found a way to profit from a gambling system I would be a great fool to reveal what I am doing. I would be killing the goose that laid the golden egg as casinos would be certain to curtail action. My intent is to use this as a source of income for other purposes.
I have read enough here to know that systems claimed to have a worked system are picked at almost as a sport. I didn’t solicit commentary because I expected it. I know there are people ready to see me fail and are ready to tell me how and why. It is my intent to see what people are saying to find things I might have overlooked.
I have an interesting analysis I'm going to run on your wagers when I have some time. Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.
ZCore13
I did the same thing when I started handicapping boxing back on SBR in the year 1973.
There are good reasons to do it. Keep yourself honest and motivated. You might also make connections. It's fun. He wants to.
Quote: RigondeauxGood gravy. Es33 has shown humility and transparency. He's just giving his system a whirl. Nothing wrong with posting it. He hasn't said he is a brain genious or even hinted at selling anything.
I did the same thing when I started handicapping boxing back on SBR in the year 1973.
There are good reasons to do it. Keep yourself honest and motivated. You might also make connections. It's fun. He wants to.
I have no issue. As long as he's posting the pick prior to game time and the odds are in line with reality....then his wagering system can be tracked for effectiveness. If he is taking money line picks...he has to post the amount wagered as well.
I'm not sure where he's getting his lines....but opening lines on many bookie websites are teasers, in other words, not reality. I suspect that is done to get people to sign up for an account. When they actually place the bet....the actual odds are listed. If the odds are in line with Vegas casinos....lets see how he does.
What's the running total at this point?
It also makes no difference whether he bets $300 or .30 cents for now. At the end of the cycle....the percentages will be the important factor if one wants to make a career out of sports betting. Then he can up the wagers.
Quote: TDVegasI'm not sure where he's getting his lines
I am using a website called SportsPlays.com. The betting lines are in line with what I see on ESPN. I do not think they are teasers because you can’t really add money to the site anyway. They have no reason to offer teaser lines.
I started this thread with $33.92. After 30 wagers my balance is $39.03, a gain of 5.11. Since September 6 I have increased my bankroll by 15% for an annualized growth of 65%.
Quote: es330tdI am using a website called SportsPlays.com. The betting lines are in line with what I see on ESPN. I do not think they are teasers because you can’t really add money to the site anyway. They have no reason to offer teaser lines.
I started this thread with $33.92. After 30 wagers my balance is $39.03, a gain of 5.11. Since September 6 I have increased my bankroll by 15% for an annualized growth of 65%.
Can you list some of the spreads they have from their site. I’m in Vegas....I’d like to compare what this site is offering vs. what is offered when you make the bet in the casino.
I’ve seen way too many listed spreads on many websites that don’t track reality. List their odds offered for NFL next week. I’d like to compare it against a brick and mortar sports book.
GB@SF
SF-3
ML: GB+149/SF-172
OU:48
Tomorrow:
Bal@LA
Rams-3
ML: Bal-178/Rams+157
OU: 47
NBA:
Suns+486/Nuggets-652
NO@LA Pelicans+704/Clippers-1026
GB+150/SF-170
Bal-180/Rams+160
Suns+450/Nuggets-600
These are close enough to the lines I see on SportsPlays that I am considering them legit.
When I did my research I was looking for a win rate of 75%. SportsPlays says my record over the last year is 211-78-3 or 73%. Since my selection criteria was created using real data, the only way my results could be that close to projected outcomes is if the lines are correct.
Quote: es330tdOne more point on the accuracy of the betting lines...
When I did my research I was looking for a win rate of 75%. SportsPlays says my record over the last year is 211-78-3 or 73%. Since my selection criteria was created using real data, the only way my results could be that close to projected outcomes is if the lines are correct.
Win rate can be misleading. If you are using money line wagers....using heavy favorites will drive up the win rate but not necessarily make money. A few heavy favorite losers can cause substantial money loss.
The Patriots have a 90% win rate this year.
Run the system thru the rest of the season and see where it ends up. If effective and you are confident....start making material money wagers.
Quote: SOOPOOWhen es started this thread I too was skeptical about whether he was using ‘real’ lines. If anything, he has NOT been getting the best available line. His results are real, and if anything, if you were using his picks you’d be able to do slightly BETTER than using his one site’s lines.
Ok....let him keep running his test until he builds a confidence level to use real money. By real money, I don’t mean $1-$2 bets.
Making money sports betting at an advantage is probably the dream....well.....of anyone.
I noticed he might be utilizing a martingale of sorts? If so....eventually the piper will be paid. A martingale type betting scheme could go on for a while and be profitable.
Quote: TDVegasOk....let him keep running his test until he builds a confidence level to use real money. By real money, I don’t mean $1-$2 bets.
I have the funds to do this with a bankroll of $3800 instead of $38 if I want. I did all this because of a thought that occurred to me when I read something Mike Shackleford wrote. When I explored it I came up with something that worked despite the fact systems shouldn’t work.
I am testing this publicly because the thought is always in my head “Where will this break down?” If it collapses publicly I didn’t lose anything. If, on the other hand, I cash out a couple bankrolls I will be much more comfortable about upping my game. Of course, then my problem will be figuring out where to do it since online books don’t appear to allow non NV residents to wager.
Quote: es330tdI have the funds to do this with a bankroll of $3800 instead of $38 if I want. I did all this because of a thought that occurred to me when I read something Mike Shackleford wrote. When I explored it I came up with something that worked despite the fact systems shouldn’t work.
I am testing this publicly because the thought is always in my head “Where will this break down?” If it collapses publicly I didn’t lose anything. If, on the other hand, I cash out a couple bankrolls I will be much more comfortable about upping my game. Of course, then my problem will be figuring out where to do it since online books don’t appear to allow non NV residents to wager.
You don’t lose anything if it collapses privately either. I fail to see the relevance of doing this publicly vs. privately UNLESS you are looking for input, agreement, disagreement or criticism.
Carry on. Good luck.
Quote: TDVegasYou don’t lose anything if it collapses privately either. I fail to see the relevance of doing this publicly vs. privately UNLESS you are looking for input, agreement, disagreement or criticism.
Carry on. Good luck.
I am expecting criticism. Privately I might overlook a flaw. Publicly, in a place that says this should not work, any mistake is sure to be noticed and pointed out.
Quote: es330tdI am expecting criticism. Privately I might overlook a flaw. Publicly, in a place that says this should not work, any mistake is sure to be noticed and pointed out.
Ok. Fine. But if you look at your first post you said you will NOT be discussing your strategy AND you don’t want or need feedback.
It’s simply a public record. My point continues to be if that is true.....you don’t need a public record. You only need a private record.
I suspect you want feedback based on the statement “any mistake is sure to be noticed and pointed out”.
No harm. Just noting the contradiction.
Quote: TDVegasOk. Fine. But if you look at your first post you said you will NOT be discussing your strategy AND you don’t want or need feedback.
It’s simply a public record. My point continues to be if that is true.....you don’t need a public record. You only need a private record.
I suspect you want feedback based on the statement “any mistake is sure to be noticed and pointed out”.
No harm. Just noting the contradiction.
I think this exchange highlights why it’s good it is being done on this forum of skeptics. Plus it will be really fun to see the crash and burn if and when that happens.
Quote: es330tdInconsistency noted. I guess it bothered me that people thought I was being misleading or using favorable data to produce my success thus far. I am putting this out there for people to see so it matters to me that people know I’m on the up and up.
Fair enough. I don’t know how or when you would determine a confidence level to wager substantial money. That would be for you to determine. At some point, if you plan on utilizing your work for profit....you’re going to have to dive in.
I’m in Vegas. If you need a runner to make bets because you can’t do it online....we can work out a small token for my time.
Quote: es330tdI have the funds to do this with a bankroll of $3800 instead of $38 if I want. I did all this because of a thought that occurred to me when I read something Mike Shackleford wrote. When I explored it I came up with something that worked despite the fact systems shouldn’t work.
I am testing this publicly because the thought is always in my head “Where will this break down?” If it collapses publicly I didn’t lose anything. If, on the other hand, I cash out a couple bankrolls I will be much more comfortable about upping my game. Of course, then my problem will be figuring out where to do it since online books don’t appear to allow non NV residents to wager.
That's exactly how I started. I was interested in sports betting for a while. I thought I might have an edge in boxing because it's a small market with low limits and it's not all that stat driven, and even if it ultimately is, the stats aren't really available. I was willing to sit there and watch tapes of fights and take notes for like $2/hr in EV.
At the time, I could only bet small so I posted my picks on SBR as part of the experiment. Worked out great. People who could bet bigger eventually started tailing me and making money. I made some friends who taught me a ton.
Winning at sports is hard in some ways and easy in some ways. It's certainly not true that it is some pipe dream fulfilled only by Billy Walters. In fact, some say his sports racket was just a money laundering op. I have no idea.
Hopefully, your angle is good. If not, keep poking around. You have a good mindset, which is essential. Of course, the heart of virtually any sports betting is line shopping, so when the time comes, you need to do that.
The Wiz has an article about how to beat parlay cards and it
Running Balance: 5.11
Bankroll: 39.03
Sport: NBA
Game: LA @ New Orleans: 11/27/19
Pick: Lakers-258
Wager: $0.98
Quote: es330tdSport: NBA
Game: LA @ New Orleans: 11/27/19
Pick: Lakers-258
Wager: $0.98
red column is running total after a loss.
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
| 11/23/2019 | NBA | Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19 | Raptors-297 | 33 | $1.14 | $41.68 | -297 | Win | $0.38 | $5.11 | $38.65 | 2.950% | $39.03 |
| 11/27/2019 | NBA | LA @ New Orleans | Lakers-258 | 34 | $0.98 | $42.66 | -258 | Win | $0.38 | $5.49 | $39.03 | 2.511% | $39.41 |
Going forward I am going to include those funds in the amount available for me to bet. The running balance I report will be solely based on the results of my system so from an evaluation standpoint the number should be “clean.” I will still report exactly how much my system says to bet and what the outcome is. I will only be reporting the running total, however, so that bankroll additions don’t muddy results.
No action today fits my criteria so I will read the reactions pro or con today and implement this change tomorrow unless there is reasonable objection.
Thank you to those following along, even the ones who insult me.
Running Balance: 5.48
Bankroll: $39.40
Sport: NBA
Game: Utah & Memphis 11/29/19
Pick: Utah-290
Wager: 1.16
But it’s ultimately your experiment so you should do as you will.
Quote: unJonI think it confuses the experiment somewhat if you increase the bankroll size. Would let it play out the same way you’ve been doing.
Based on these responses I am not changing anything.
Running Balance: 5.88
Balance: 39.80
Sport: NBA
Game: Dallas @ LA 12/1/19
Pick: Lakers-265
Wager: 1.06
Game: Houston @ New Orleans
Pick: NO-289
Wager: $0.96
September 9th, 2019 at 7:29:35 PM
Last result: +0.34
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33598-my-sports-bet-tracking/3/#post738782
some math
$0.96/$2.89 = $0.33217993
rounded down = $0.33
all other Wins have been rounded down
this is the only one that is rounded up.
this is the only win that is messing with my Excel sheet.
why would that be so?
Quote: 7crapsSport: NFL
Game: Houston @ New Orleans
Pick: NO-289
Wager: $0.96
September 9th, 2019 at 7:29:35 PM
Last result: +0.34
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33598-my-sports-bet-tracking/3/#post738782
some math
$0.96/$2.89 = $0.33217993
rounded down = $0.33
all other Wins have been rounded down
this is the only one that is rounded up.
this is the only win that is messing with my Excel sheet.
why would that be so?
I may have keyed the post wrong. I just went and looked at SportsPlays. It says I entered a wager of .96 on 9/9 at Saints -281. Same day it shows me cashing $1.30 for a win of 0.34.
Does this help?
ZCore13
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-281 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -281 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
| 11/23/2019 | NBA | Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19 | Raptors-297 | 33 | $1.14 | $41.68 | -297 | Win | $0.38 | $5.11 | $38.65 | 2.950% | $39.03 |
| 11/27/2019 | NBA | LA @ New Orleans | Lakers-258 | 34 | $0.98 | $42.66 | -258 | Win | $0.37 | $5.48 | $39.03 | 2.511% | $39.40 |
| 11/29/2019 | NBA | Utah & Memphis | Utah-290 | 35 | $1.16 | $43.82 | -290 | Win | $0.40 | $5.88 | $39.40 | 2.944% | $39.80 |
| 12/1/2019 | NBA | Dallas @ LA 12/1/19 | Lakers-265 | 36 | $1.06 | $44.88 | -265 | Loss | ($1.06) | $4.82 | $39.80 | 2.663% | $38.74 |
Quote: Zcore134 days with no bets?
No games have matched my selection criteria.
BTW...it was very frustrating coming off a loss to not be abke to place a wager. I was very tempted to bet on the Celtics last night but every time I deviate from my plan I get burned. It would have worked but it is better to stick to the plan.
Running Balance: 4.82
Balance: 38.74
Sport: NBA
Games: Philadelphia @ Washington 12/5/19
Pick: 76ers-295
Wager: $2.87
76ers horrible road team this and last year. Denver a way better bet.Quote: es330tdSport: NBA
Games: Philadelphia @ Washington 12/5/19
Pick: 76ers-295
Wager: $2.87
I bet on Wash (got lucky when 76ers went home after 1st quarter)
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-281 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -281 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
| 11/23/2019 | NBA | Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19 | Raptors-297 | 33 | $1.14 | $41.68 | -297 | Win | $0.38 | $5.11 | $38.65 | 2.950% | $39.03 |
| 11/27/2019 | NBA | LA @ New Orleans | Lakers-258 | 34 | $0.98 | $42.66 | -258 | Win | $0.37 | $5.48 | $39.03 | 2.511% | $39.40 |
| 11/29/2019 | NBA | Utah & Memphis | Utah-290 | 35 | $1.16 | $43.82 | -290 | Win | $0.40 | $5.88 | $39.40 | 2.944% | $39.80 |
| 12/1/2019 | NBA | Dallas @ LA 12/1/19 | Lakers-265 | 36 | $1.06 | $44.88 | -265 | Loss | ($1.06) | $4.82 | $39.80 | 2.663% | $38.74 |
| 12/5/2019 | NBA | Philadelphia @ Washington | 76ers-295 | 37 | $2.87 | $47.75 | -295 | Loss | ($2.87) | $1.95 | $38.74 | 7.408% | $35.87 |
red columns are total after lost bets
Quote:76ers horrible road team this and last year. Denver a way better bet.
I didn’t like making that bet. Unfortunately I designed the system to take personal opinion out of the process. On to the next one...
Horrible means they win just under 50% of their road games. compared to their home win record, it is horrible, imo.Quote: 7craps76ers horrible road team this and last year.
next
Quote: 7crapsHorrible means they win just under 50% of their road games. compared to their home win record, it is horrible, imo.
next
Even though I have done it with success in the past I may stop betting road teams.
From Wongs Book, with an average line of -290, you need a 74.5% win rate just to break even. So if the OP wants a few % in his favor at the end of the day he needs to pick ~77.5% correctly. With something that large it would EASILY take probably AT LEAST a few thousand results until this is more "proven out."
I'm enjoying the thread and watching, not being harsh, just saying you have a very long way to go before you can prove to yourself this is a working system. Don't think even when you get to 1,000 picks that it's "proven out" enough. You need 5k or 10k picks. ONE bad run on -300 favorites can smash an entire bankroll in a week. With a pick rate/win rate that high you ABSOLUTELY could win for months or even a year on end... and then boom that one bad run at -300 bets smashes it all back down. Kind of line the Martingale. It's works most of the time, until it doesn't =P.
Have fun and don't bet the life savings, past that I'll keep enjoying the thread. Thanks for an entertaining thread/idea!
Quote: RomesFYI, the OP's average line is "about" -290.
From Wongs Book, with an average line of -290, you need a 74.5% win rate just to break even. So if the OP wants a few % in his favor at the end of the day he needs to pick ~77.5% correctly. With something that large it would EASILY take probably AT LEAST a few thousand results until this is more "proven out."
I'm enjoying the thread and watching, not being harsh, just saying you have a very long way to go before you can prove to yourself this is a working system. Don't think even when you get to 1,000 picks that it's "proven out" enough. You need 5k or 10k picks. ONE bad run on -300 favorites can smash an entire bankroll in a week. With a pick rate/win rate that high you ABSOLUTELY could win for months or even a year on end... and then boom that one bad run at -300 bets smashes it all back down. Kind of line the Martingale. It's works most of the time, until it doesn't =P.
Have fun and don't bet the life savings, past that I'll keep enjoying the thread. Thanks for an entertaining thread/idea!
Agree on all points on this, especially the need for a large sample size (although maybe not in the 5K range), and the overall enjoyability of the thread. Just a small refinement...the average line to date is -277.62. Long term that would lower the break even point a little bit from 74.5%, but not by much. Perhaps enough to provide the OP with an effort-worthy gain if he can sustain the 75% win rate he claims.
Quote: RomesFYI, the OP's average line is "about" -290.
From Wongs Book, with an average line of -290, you need a 74.5% win rate just to break even. So if the OP wants a few % in his favor at the end of the day he needs to pick ~77.5% correctly. With something that large it would EASILY take probably AT LEAST a few thousand results until this is more "proven out."
I'm enjoying the thread and watching, not being harsh, just saying you have a very long way to go before you can prove to yourself this is a working system. Don't think even when you get to 1,000 picks that it's "proven out" enough. You need 5k or 10k picks. ONE bad run on -300 favorites can smash an entire bankroll in a week. With a pick rate/win rate that high you ABSOLUTELY could win for months or even a year on end... and then boom that one bad run at -300 bets smashes it all back down. Kind of line the Martingale. It's works most of the time, until it doesn't =P.
Have fun and don't bet the life savings, past that I'll keep enjoying the thread. Thanks for an entertaining thread/idea!
The problem with sports betting, unlike blackjack, is the conditions are ever changing. The games and the betting markets both change. So you can never really be sure.
AT LEAST a few thousand. I say way more than that.Quote: RomesFYI, the OP's average line is "about" -290.
From Wongs Book, with an average line of -290, you need a 74.5% win rate just to break even. So if the OP wants a few % in his favor at the end of the day he needs to pick ~77.5% correctly. With something that large it would EASILY take probably AT LEAST a few thousand results until this is more "proven out."
standard deviation of 77.5% over 2k wagers = 0.9337%
3k = 0.7624%
6 sigma range 79.7872% to 75.2128%
4k = 0.6603%
6 sigma range 79.4808% to 75.5192%
10k = 0.4176%
6 sigma range 78.7527% to 76.2473%
20k = 0.2953%
6 sigma range 78.3858% to 76.6142%
OP is also not flat betting here so this is actually meaningless
NBA offers those 'back to back' games on the road where the team has to travel. been proven that, for many teams, is +ev.Quote: es330tdEven though I have done it with success in the past I may stop betting road teams.
Wash goes on the road after that win to play tonight in Miami.
could be a blowout. I did not see an overnight line (at W Hill)
Miami is -500 right now. some (most) hate laying 5 to win 1
good luck (I have to fight with my hot cereal)
was not a blowout game.Quote: 7crapsNBA offers those 'back to back' games on the road where the team has to travel. been proven that, for many teams, is +ev.
Wash goes on the road after that win to play tonight in Miami.
could be a blowout.
Wash did not play 2 road games back to back
Miami still won 112-103 (Wash won the 1st half, not the game)
