MLB Double Your Money
Quote: SOOPOOGot it now. Above is the summary that splains it to me. The 5-1 is meaningless as you take runs and/or favorites, but the +$125 so far is crystal clear. Since you did define a starting bankroll of $1000 and a defined endpoint of doubling it, I am now looking forward to your progress (hopefully) or regress (hopefully not!)
Glad I was able to clear that up and progress - only progress is acceptable.
Quote: billryanMan jumps off the Empire State building. As he passes the 90th floor, his phone rings. He answers it as he passes the 60th floor.
How is it going,asks an unknown caller as he passes the 40th floor. Staring at the rapidly approaching sidewalk,he replies- So far, so good.
You have many talents.
Quote: 7crapsnot really a standard Marty.
looks to me as some type of chasing a loss bet method.
The loss was 2.3 units (Boston game - mine was, not understand why it went up to a loss of 2.56 units)
The next bet for 'that' series of bets was
6.76 units to win 3.56 units (the 1st loss PLUS a 1 unit win)
the -190 comes into play
bottom line is what the bankroll is currently
and what the average draw-down would be with this type of betting systems before doubling any starting bankroll.
Yes it's a 3 game chase. What you lose on the A bet, you chase on the B while still going after the 1 unit. If B loses, you chase on the C what you lost on A and B while still going after the 1 unit. If C loses, the series is over and you count your losses.
All back testing was done at Covers so I use their closing lines for documentation - which is why the 2.3 changed to 2.56.
- Philadelphia Philles ML @ -175 on 4/12, 1910 EST (risking 44 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
ok, good to know.Quote: jh111All back testing was done at Covers so I use their closing lines for documentation - which is why the 2.3 changed to 2.56.
I live in Nevada and have no problem wagering almost anytime on my cell with William Hill (they are the only ones also in my town at the casinos)
How many units was your largest drawdown while backtesting a season, if you remember?
thanks
Quote: RSFYI, steeldco posted picks over several years here in the past and he did ,𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥
I don't think many people here share your definition of 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥. how are you doing in your gambling? 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥? 😃😃😃
in 2012 he lost $2,675
in 2014 he lost $1,836
in 2015 he lost $19,417
in 2016 he won $20,241
in 2017 he lost $30,464...................................I didn't find any picks for 2013
he may have made a few bets at the end of each year that he didn't tabulate. these are his last tabulations
R.I.P. Steeldco - sorry I had to bring that up
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/9430-mlb-picks/50/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/17694-2014-mlb-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/21611-2015-mlb-money-line-picks/45/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/25461-2016-mlb-money-line-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/28572-2017-mlb-money-line-picks/52/
Quote: lilredroosterI don't think many people here share your definition of 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥. how are you doing in your gambling? 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥? 😃😃😃
in 2012 he lost $2,675
in 2014 he lost $1,836
in 2015 he lost $19,417
in 2016 he won $20,241
in 2017 he lost $30,464...................................I didn't find any picks for 2013
he may have made a few bets at the end of each year that he didn't tabulate. these are his last tabulations
R.I.P. Steeldco - sorry I had to bring that up
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/9430-mlb-picks/50/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/17694-2014-mlb-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/21611-2015-mlb-money-line-picks/45/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/25461-2016-mlb-money-line-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/28572-2017-mlb-money-line-picks/52/
I was going to point that out too.
And also , during the last season he posted his NBA algorithm picks , he was minus around $30,000 halfway through the season when he stopped posting. Not sure if that’s the same 30k you are referring to
Quote: michael99000I was going to point that out too.
And also , during the last season he posted his NBA algorithm picks , he was minus around $30,000 halfway through the season when he stopped posting. Not sure if that’s the same 30k you are referring to
it's not.
I only posted his MLB results
Quote: lilredroosterI don't think many people here share your definition of 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥. how are you doing in your gambling? 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥? 😃😃😃
in 2012 he lost $2,675
in 2014 he lost $1,836
in 2015 he lost $19,417
in 2016 he won $20,241
in 2017 he lost $30,464...................................I didn't find any picks for 2013
he may have made a few bets at the end of each year that he didn't tabulate. these are his last tabulations
R.I.P. Steeldco - sorry I had to bring that up
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/9430-mlb-picks/50/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/17694-2014-mlb-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/21611-2015-mlb-money-line-picks/45/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/25461-2016-mlb-money-line-picks/61/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/28572-2017-mlb-money-line-picks/52/
Well I bet his +130 dogs and did quite well, so whatevs. If ya wanna talk trash on a death victim, go ahead. I’ll have you know he was a funny and charismatic guy. RIP ol’ chap.
Quote: RSWell I bet his +130 dogs and did quite well, so whatevs. If ya wanna talk trash on a death victim, go ahead. I’ll have you know he was a funny and charismatic guy. RIP ol’ chap.
Talking trash and accurately portraying someone’s betting record are nowhere near the same thing.
You said a guy did quite well when in fact his picks would’ve led to losing a large amount of money.
Quote: michael99000Talking trash and accurately portraying someone’s betting record are nowhere near the same thing.
You said a guy did quite well when in fact his picks would’ve led to losing a large amount of money.
Maybe RS got his super premium picks while you got what you paid for.
RIP.
Quote: BozSteelco was an incredible stock picker and easily beat the market year after year with his posted picks. Like many successful others it appears he struggled with sports betting.
RIP.
I give him credit for posting all his plays , keeping his record up to date along with dollars won/lost.
Certain members of this forum who post plays will go 0-2 on posted plays and then inform us they went 5-0 on all the games they bet that night but didn’t post.
Quote: 7crapsok, good to know.
I live in Nevada and have no problem wagering almost anytime on my cell with William Hill (they are the only ones also in my town at the casinos)
How many units was your largest drawdown while backtesting a season, if you remember?
thanks
Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
How much could a talented sports runner get down on theses bets if he were to use all reasonable wagering outlets?Quote: jh111Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
Quote: jh111Series 6 - A Bet
- Philadelphia Philles ML @ -175 on 4/12, 1910 EST (risking 44 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Damn. Nice call. Not only did they win, but it was pretty much a blowout. Didn’t see that coming. 👌🏻
Question. You said or alluded to doubling your bankroll. What do you do if/when it gets doubled before end of the season? No more betting for the season or do you start a new one? What about (theoretically) if you somehow lose the whole bankroll? No more betting or start afresh?
good point.Quote: RSWhat about (theoretically) if you somehow lose the whole bankroll? No more betting or start afresh?
the OP suggests $1000 starting bankroll at $25 units, that makes for 40 betting units.
What happens when the bankroll gets down to 18 betting units and the next wager (series) calls for a 19 or higher unit wager?
that was the draw-down part of an earlier question.
What was (IF KNOWN) the largest bankroll draw-down (or average)
during the season before the bankroll was doubled during back testing?
this could be modeled as a Markov chain with the given win probabilities
but how accurate would that be against the last 10 years of data?
Quote: AxelWolfHow much could a talented sports runner get down on theses bets if he were to use all reasonable wagering outlets?Quote: jh111Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
Guess it would depend on his level of talent.
Quote: RSDamn. Nice call. Not only did they win, but it was pretty much a blowout. Didn’t see that coming. 👌🏻
Question. You said or alluded to doubling your bankroll. What do you do if/when it gets doubled before end of the season? No more betting for the season or do you start a new one? What about (theoretically) if you somehow lose the whole bankroll? No more betting or start afresh?
Yea nice to get one of those after that Boston game.
I'd recommend just sticking with whatever you start with throughout. So if you tail and start out playing to win $25, then I would play to win $25 every single series for the entire season - regardless of if you've doubled your bankroll yet or not. I just think the risk outweighs the reward if you increase your bet size as your bankroll grows - but that's just me.
And to answer your second question, if you use the money management strategy I recommend, losing your entire bankroll with this system would basically consist of losing back to back C bets (back to back series). And I don't see that happening since the system has only lost a total of 2 C bets (series) over the last 9 years (610 total series). But in the unlikeliest of all unlikelyhood, should that happen I will cease posting and head back to the drawing board.
Philadelphia Philles ML @ -165 on 4/13, 1810 EST (risking 42 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
Lets just say he is half as good as the best.Quote: jh111Quote: AxelWolfHow much could a talented sports runner get down on theses bets if he were to use all reasonable wagering outlets?Quote: jh111Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
Guess it would depend on his level of talent.
Quote: AxelWolfLets just say he is half as good as the best.Quote: jh111Quote: AxelWolfHow much could a talented sports runner get down on theses bets if he were to use all reasonable wagering outlets?Quote: jh111Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
Guess it would depend on his level of talent.
Well then I guess I would say half the money on half the bets to half of the outlets - depending on the time of month and temperature of course.
william hill has @ 11:11amQuote: jh111Series 7 - A Bet
Philadelphia Philles ML @ -165 on 4/13, 1810 EST (risking 42 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
the Reverse Line Phillies(+1.5) @ -350
the Alternate Line Phillies(-2.5) @ +175
ML @ -152
RL @ even (-1.5)
Sorry for not being more clear. How much MONEY per pick can one get down on your picks assuming they are animatedly working it using reasonable betting outlets such as all Vegas sports books and via mostly reputable online books. Perhaps even a few reputable bookies. 5k,10k, 20k, 100k+?Quote: jh111Quote: AxelWolfLets just say he is half as good as the best.Quote: jh111Quote: AxelWolfHow much could a talented sports runner get down on theses bets if he were to use all reasonable wagering outlets?Quote: jh111Well the worst season in the last 9 years netted 43 units.
So if I'm hearing you right, I'm thinking your question is that if you started tailing now, how much would you stand to win/lose - my answer is...I have no EXPLETIVE DELETED clue.
But if you go based on past history, you stand to profit at least 37 units.
Does that answer your question?
Guess it would depend on his level of talent.
Well then I guess I would say half the money on half the bets to half of the outlets - depending on the time of month and temperature of course.
Quote: AxelWolf
Sorry for not being more clear. How much MONEY per pick can one get down on your picks assuming they are animatedly working it using reasonable betting outlets such as all Vegas sports books and via mostly reputable online books. Perhaps even a few reputable bookies. 5k,10k, 20k, 100k+?
jh111...................... this is not a serious question. just ignore it. he's yanking your chain
mid 5 inningQuote: jh111Series 7 - A Bet
Philadelphia Philles ML @ -165 on 4/13, 1810 EST (risking 42 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
PHI 0
Mia 6
ML: PHI @ 20 to 1
RL: +5.5 +105
Quote: lilredroosterjh111...................... this is not a serious question. just ignore it. he's yanking your chain
So one of the best AP’s on here, who has gotten to that status by always trying to improve his knowledge, is yanking a chain?
Or perhaps he is trying to learn new tricks to add to his skill set, with the required level of cynicism to be successful?
I find it insulting that you say to ignore him.
Quote: RSTough break. We'll get 'em on the next one.
And if not the next one , then the one after that.
C bets don’t lose
Quote: michael99000And if not the next one , then the one after that.
C bets don’t lose
You obviously haven’t lived life as a Philly sports fan.
Quote: RSTough break. We'll get 'em on the next one.
It's not a loss. It might look like a loss, but it's really not.
Quote: jh111Series 7 - A Bet
Philadelphia Philles ML @ -165 on 4/13, 1810 EST (risking 42 to win 25)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
Why did you come back with the Phillies again in the second game when the Phillies already won their first game, thus winning 25 units for that series? Don't you stop on each series Once you have hit that 25-unit milestone? I thought the goal was to win 25 units per series throughout the entire season through the 3/4-game Martingale.
Your system obviously does not pick up the fact that Zach eflin is a very spotty picture...
Quote: WatchMeWin
Your system obviously does not pick up the fact that Zach eflin is a very spotty picture...
Very generous characterization of Eflin at best. I assume as a starting pitcher. He might take a nice picture though.
And now you have Valasquez starting along with inconsistent Phillies bats. A few lineup changes coming today.
It was serious question. I don't know much about MLB betting. The only baseball betting I'm involved with is though other people who I trust know when there is an advantage. I don't even like watching baseball(I have been offered free tickets many times, I just tell them just to take xxx instead, since they would enjoy it and I wouldn't). As long as the money comes in eventually, I don't care.Quote: lilredroosterjh111...................... this is not a serious question. just ignore it. he's yanking your chain
I DO KNOW if you have an advantage on ANYTHING (For agreements sake, I will assume the OP has an advantage) it's important to know how much action you can get down so you can estimate how much money you can make, I ALWAYS ASK THAT QUESTION. It's probably the 2nd question I ask, just after asking for the math or logic as to how/why there is an advantage. Then I would want to know what kind of variance and bankroll is needed along with the ROR.
IIRC the OP said this system has not made less than 37 units over 9 years. Wouldn't it be nice to know how big you can make your units? Who isn't interested in picking up an extra 185k++ a year for only a few hours of "work" per day?
Quote: WatchMeWinWhy did you come back with the Phillies again in the second game when the Phillies already won their first game, thus winning 25 units for that series? Don't you stop on each series Once you have hit that 25-unit milestone? I thought the goal was to win 25 units per series throughout the entire season through the 3/4-game Martingale.
Your system obviously does not pick up the fact that Zach eflin is a very spotty picture...
Series does not mean a series of games between teams. He uses it to mean a series of bets. The first bet he calls an "A" bet. If it loses the next bet in that series is called a "B" bet. And if that loses the next bet is called a "C" bet.
His "A" bets are all structured to win $25, usually risking far more. The "B" bets are structured to recoup the losses from the "A" bet plus a $25 profit. And the "C" bet is structured to recoup the losses from the B and A bets, plus a $25 profit. So the "C" bets might be in the hundreds of dollars since he usually takes prohibitive favorites.
I'm not sure if it is a Martingale per se, but it is very similar at least.
Quote: AxelWolfIt was serious question. I don't know much about MLB betting. The only baseball betting I'm involved with is though other people who I trust know when there is an advantage. I don't even like watching baseball(I have been offered free tickets many times, I just tell them just to take xxx instead, since they would enjoy it and I wouldn't). As long as the money comes in eventually, I don't care.
I DO KNOW if you have an advantage on ANYTHING (For agreements sake, I will assume the OP has an advantage) it's important to know how much action you can get down so you can estimate how much money you can make, I ALWAYS ASK THAT QUESTION. It's probably the 2nd question I ask, just after asking for the math or logic as to how/why there is an advantage. Then I would want to know what kind of variance and bankroll is needed along with the ROR.
IIRC the OP said this system has not made less than 37 units over 9 years. Wouldn't it be nice to know how big you can make your units? Who isn't interested in picking up an extra 185k++ a year for only a few hours of "work" per day?
For regular money line MLB bets I would surmise you would have no problem getting 6 figures worth of action, with the books more than happy to take your bets.
I think you can probably fade 50k bets if you knew you would be up a min of 37 units per season. Or is an extra 1.8 mill too much for you to handle?Quote: SOOPOOFor regular money line MLB bets I would surmise you would have no problem getting 6 figures worth of action, with the books more than happy to take your bets.
Quote: AxelWolfI think you can probably fade 50k bets if you knew you would be up a min of 37 units per season. Or is an extra 1.8 mill too much for you to handle?
??? I think his system is merely a form of a Martingale. I do not consider his bets +EV. Nor would I consider betting against him +EV.
Side note... I have been in a Zone and hitting a staggering percentage of my plays. I'll post my pics for today under my other thread. Been hitting 30 to 1 payout parlays. All were free rolling parlays from craps wins. I know.. The comments will come.. But it is what it is. And look out for my San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks!
Quote: WatchMeWinSo much effort n griding throught a season for small profit %. Not my cup of tea.
Side note... I have been in a Zone and hitting a staggering percentage of my plays. I'll post my pics for today under my other thread. Been hitting 30 to 1 payout parlays. All were free rolling parlays from craps wins. I know.. The comments will come.. But it is what it is. And look out for my San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks!
Series #7
(7) Philadelphia ML @ -180 - A bet Loss -$45
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1105
Overall Record/Units - 6-0, +6 units
***
A Bets = 5-2
B Bets = 1-0
C Bets = none
Quote: WatchMeWinI have been in a Zone and hitting a staggering percentage of my plays.
Your record on non-posted plays is always great. You are always “on fire lately”.
It’s those darn bets you post prior to the game being played that you struggle with. Such as your last few college hoops posts
- Philadelphia Philles ML @ -167 on 4/14, 1310 EST (risking 117 to win 70)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
Quote: michael99000Your record on non-posted plays is always great. You are always “on fire lately”.
It’s those darn bets you post prior to the game being played that you struggle with. Such as your last few college hoops posts
I didn't lose 100% of the best I didnt make last year. Did about half that on the rest.
Quote: billryanI didn't lose 100% of the best I didnt make last year. Did about half that on the rest.
I have a friend who doesn't gamble at all
last year he outperformed (lost less) than about 99% of the gamblers in the U.S.
and he didn't do anything. that's his system. do nothing at all. he says it's quite relaxing.
Name one.Quote: SM777It's truly amazing how many "AP's" on here have interest in an MLB chase system. Who would've thunk it....
Quote: jh111Series 7 - B Bet
- Philadelphia Philles ML @ -167 on 4/14, 1310 EST (risking 117 to win 70)
Good Vibes!
Important Note: If the line drops to -150 or below at Covers, you will need to place your wager on the alternate run-line - Phillies +1.5.
Series #7
(7) Philadelphia ML @ -152 - B bet Win +$70
Starting Bankroll - $1000 (playing TO WIN $25 for every $1000)
Current Bankroll - $1175
Overall Record/Units - 7-0, +7 units
***
A Bets = 5-2
B Bets = 2-0
C Bets = none
Quote: RSI think I'm learning this better now. Just so I'm not making any mistakes, when you say "If line goes below -150, then bet the run line, otherwise bet the ML" or whatever, in either case, you're saying to bet enough to win $25? Or in the more recent bet, it'd be a bet to win $70, right? That's to make up the $45 earlier loss and to add on $25? Appreciate the help (but more importantly, the winning picks :) ).
I’m enjoying this thread. My understand is Series A is always bet enough to win $25. Series B bet to win back what you lost on series A plus $25. Etc.
