place bet martingale

ok math guys i have been using a martingale approach to place betting at craps. i started this method with $4000 and have doubled my bankroll in past 10 days. i play untill i make $400 a session.

my method/thought process is this, i play the 6/8 5/9 4/10 as single numbers. my thinking is there are 10 6/8 combos 8 5/9 and 6 4/10 and 6 ways for a 7. so now for the betting sequence that i follow..
6/8
1. $6
2. $12
3. $30
4. $90
5. $246
6. $660

5/9
1. $5
2. $10
3. $25
4. $65
5. $165
6. $400

4/10
1. $5
2. $10
3. $20
4. $45
5. $100
6. $200

this is the progression that i follow, i start each shooter at level 2 on 6/8 and 5/9 and level 1 on 4/10
bets are always working, anytime a number is hit i drop those numbers to level 1, anytime shooter 7's out before a combo is hit i increase up 1.

example, new shooter my bets would look like this...

$5 $10 $12 $12 $10 $5
so now whatever number is thrown except 2 3 11 or 12 you adjust next bet. if its a 5, both the 5/9 would regress to $5. next throw is 8, both 6/8 regress to $6. now 7 out, you would increase all numbers to level 2. new shooter- c/o 7... increase all bets to level 3. next roll 10, regress 4/10 to level 1 and cycle continues on and on......

at first dealers get annoyed if u will with always changing amounts of bets, but i explain what im doing up front abd i always take care of them. so far i have been to level 6 a few times on the 5/9 snd 4/10 but not the 6/8 obviously i know craps is negative expectation game so eventually i will lose, but question is how often should i expect that? it takes 6 7's in a row to completly wipe me out and thankfully i have not seen that. im guessing you DI's who are really good should never lose. ive been only playing here in socal with the cards from a shoe and it has been killing it.

..."bets are always working"....
Does this also include the come out rolls?

Not to scare you but yes...i've seen 6+ consecutive 7's rolled before on several occasions (but not too often obviously). Interesting strategy...sounds like you're having a blast doing it! Good luck!

Just don't blame the casino for cheating if/when level 7 catches up to you.....

Just a tip, go ahead and start buying the 4/10 after you break $20.

yes i have bets working on come out. personally i dont see what difference is between 1st roll or 15th, the dice have no memory. as far as 6 or more continous 7's i know it will happen eventually, my question is how often should i expect that situation

Quote: cartytay

i know craps is negative expectation game so eventually i will lose, but question is how often should i expect that? it takes 6 7's in a row to completly wipe me out and thankfully i have not seen that.

First off, I think we all KNOW that NO system or strategy can win all the time, and some can win more than others. The bad part of almost ALL systems is the large losses that do show while betting a system all the time. There are better times to implement a system but that would be for another thread.

Back to your questions:edit0002

Will you briefly explain to me if there is significance to the odd bet amounts?

I understand the concept of martingale, but I am wondering what happens if I adjust the amounts slightly to make payoffs a bit easier. In other words, level 5 for 6/8 would be $240 bet (instead of $246), for a $280 payout, level 4 for the 5/9 would be a $75 bet (instead of $65) for a $105 payout.
I would also adjust the 4/10 bet amounts slightly to take advantage of the buy amounts at the casino, to take advantage of the break points for figuring when the vig is increased (bet $55 if the vig is still only $2).

Would making small changes like this have a material affect on the outcome?

This would be a perfect system to play on Rapid Craps - no dealers to p*ss off or pay off!!!

Quote: DeMango

This would be a perfect system to play on Rapid Craps - no dealers to p*ss off or pay off!!!

Very true!

Most craps dealers and boxmen get attitudes (mostly bad ones aimed at you) when you make them "work" more than THEY think they should.
One box at GN downtown told my friend, after he lowered his $320 across down to $64 across, that place bettors should "never" lower their bets. Funny, the 7 out happened 2 rolls later and the box said nothing. The dealers did not seem to care!

Currently Rapid Craps is only at Bill's on the strip with place bet limits of min $3 (during the week) to max $300.

Dealers can be "grumpy" but I have seen people play larger bets--for example, $1100 across ($200 4/5/9/10, $150 6/8)--and then drop them to $25-$30 per number based on wins, etc. One reason for changing was that this casino had no commission on the 4/10 buy IF the bet was taken down...

People who do this and tip a fair amount (this particular gent put the dealers up on all the numbers for $10/$12) don't hear any griping at all. People who splash bets all over the place, throw them in late, abuse the dealer, etc. tend to be the ones I see getting poor service.

I think that anyone playing this type of system will get along just fine with the dealers as long as there as a bit of tipping involved.

Quote: RonC

this casino had no commission on the 4/10 buy IF the bet was taken down...

Don't all casinos charge no vig when buy and lay bets are taken down?

Quote: SanchoPanza

Don't all casinos charge no vig when buy and lay bets are taken down?

Some charge the vig up front on a buy 4/10; I've never taken one down, so I don't know if you get the vig back but I would think you would lose it if you took the bet down.

The difference here (I was not clear on this...sorry) is that they do not take the commission on winning bets if they are taken down. I had a 10 buy for $25 along with a come bet. The 10 hits and I am paid the full amount of the win ($50, instead of having to drop $1 for the vig) because I moved the "buy" bet to an "odds" bet on the come bet. Since the buy bet was "taken down" on the win, no vig charged at this casino.

Quote: RonC

Some charge the vig up front on a buy 4/10; I've never taken one down, so I don't know if you get the vig back but I would think you would lose it if you took the bet down.

The difference here (I was not clear on this...sorry) is that they do not take the commission on winning bets if they are taken down. I had a 10 buy for $25 along with a come bet. The 10 hits and I am paid the full amount of the win ($50, instead of having to drop $1 for the vig) because I moved the "buy" bet to an "odds" bet on the come bet. Since the buy bet was "taken down" on the win, no vig charged at this casino.

The few times I have laid the 4 or 10, and then took it down, I got my vig back. This was at Harrah's properties.
I can't recall if I have done it at any MGM places.

Let me rephrase the question. Does anybody know any casinos that keep the vig when buy and lay bets are taken down?

Quote: 7craps

First off, I think we all KNOW that NO system or strategy can win all the time, and some can win more than others. The bad part of almost ALL systems is the large losses that do show while betting a system all the time. There are better times to implement a system but that would be for another thread.

Back to your questions:
You also need to be concerned about the 2,3,11 and 12s that roll before the 7. It would not take 6 straight 7s to wipe you out.
Example rolls:
1)2,7
2)11,2,7
3)11,2,12,7
4)11,2,12,11,7
I think you get the idea.


This is why software like Wincraps are good great tools to have around. You can run many sims using a betting system or strategy and see how often you win and lose and meet certain goals. This sounds like an Auto-bet file I have seen that can be downloaded from Wincraps site. Learning to program and change auto-bet files in Wincraps takes some effort but is well worth it. Just look at some posts by member "goatcabin"

My question to you is you have a $400 session win goal and are you willing to lose the $4000 every time?
I will see if I can set up a sim and find out some results. No guarantee that I will share the results unless all goes well.


Be careful of card craps.
Card Craps in SoCal is NOT dice craps and will never be dice craps.

Sure it has the "appearance" of being like dice craps.
Streaks and frequencies, both ways, per shoe, are consistently 4 to 10 standard deviations from the mean, using actual card rolls and computer generated shoes. I say no more.

Morongo Casino in SoCal uses 2 CSMs and their "card rolls", in my opinion and studies, are more random than just a shoe and appear closer to actual dice rolls frequencies.
But then, we all have an opinion. ( I put this opinion here for a friend of mine that thinks card craps is exactly like dice craps )

yes when I go play the money I take with me I am willing to lose, you cant follow a system like this and quit when the bets get to big to make u uncomfortable, this definately is not for everyone. as far as win craps I dont not know how to program it so I havent even tried but im sure that it is pretty easy for someone who knows wincraps to program the rules for what i do. as far as the cal-craps, i play at san manuel and they play 7 deacks out out 1 shoe, and flip 2 cards at a time. there is no dice what so ever on the table. i dont know if thats good or bad for what im doing but it has worked so far... since OP i have won 2 more sessions and didnt get past level 4 for both of them. i will keep forum updated on progress but as of now Im up 5k on 12 seesions

Quote: cartytay

yes when I go play the money I take with me I am willing to lose, you cant follow a system like this and quit when the bets get to big to make u uncomfortable, this definately is not for everyone. as far as win craps I dont not know how to program it so I havent even tried but im sure that it is pretty easy for someone who knows wincraps to program the rules for what i do. as far as the cal-craps, i play at san manuel and they play 7 deacks out out 1 shoe, and flip 2 cards at a time. there is no dice what so ever on the table. i dont know if thats good or bad for what im doing but it has worked so far... since OP i have won 2 more sessions and didnt get past level 4 for both of them. i will keep forum updated on progress but as of now Im up 5k on 12 seesions

Thanks for the update.

I am familar with SanMan Craps. The last time I was there the table limits were $10 to $500 and that was a few months ago. Before that the min bet was always posted at $10. Have they changed their limits to allow $5 and $6 place bets?
I know the limits at Casino Morongo are $5 to $1000.

I am currently 50% complete on setting up your "system" in Wincraps. I am finishing up another project.

How long or how many rolls on average does it take you to "earn" your $400 session win?

Quote: cartytay

i know craps is negative expectation game so eventually i will lose, but question is how often should i expect that? it takes 6 7's in a row to completly wipe me out and thankfully i have not seen that.

The math for having 6 7s before any place bet wins (causing your $4k bankroll to bust) would be:(using the craps formula)
[(6/30)/((6/30) + (24/30)]^6 = 0.0064% (.000064)
or 1 in 15625 7s
or 1 in 109375 dice rolls

The median 50%(half above and half below) would be:
1 in 10831 7s
or 1 in 64986 dice rolls

10% chance of bust ( for my 10% friend, in-joke)
1 in 1647 7s
or 1 in 9882 dice rolls
formula for excel:
=LOG(1-0.1)/LOG(1-0.000064)

You started with $4K so now you are up to $8K? Meaning you have won ten times ($400 apiece).

What is your definition of one time? Do you walk away and buy a sandwich and then return an hour later?

A rough rule of thumb in Martingale is that you will go bust about twice as often as you will double your bankroll (based on coin flips). So if you double your money you have beaten 2:1 odds.

Quote: cartytay

this is the progression that i follow, i start each shooter at level 2 on 6/8 and 5/9 and level 1 on 4/10
bets are always working, anytime a number is hit i drop those numbers to level 1, anytime shooter 7's out before a combo is hit i increase up 1.

Once a number goes to level one after a win, you never increase it until it loses (except for the inside #s since they always start out at level#2).

A bet then is never increased after a win.

And you always increase after a loss - only if the number group (place mates) did not win before it lost.

I have been playing in manual mode in Wincraps and just wanted to make sure of the "rules"

I have hit level 6 once for the 4&10 replaying actual Vegas craps table dice rolls. I did hit the big bet and brought both down to $5. Question. What if a level six on one number does not hit? What would be the plan according to your system?

why not just do a progression on the 6 and 8? youre giving up too much betting on those outside numbers.

like

6 and 6

12 and 12

36 and 36

96 and 96

Quote: 7craps

Thanks for the update.



I am currently 50% complete on setting up your "system" in Wincraps. I am finishing up another project.

How long or how many rolls on average does it take you to "earn" your $400 session win?


The math for having 6 7s before any place bet wins (causing your $4k bankroll to bust) would be:(using the craps formula)
[(6/36)/(30/36)]^6 = 0.0064% (.000064)
or 1 in 15625 7s
or 1 in 109375 dice rolls

The median 50%(half above and half below) would be:
1 in 10831 7s
or 1 in 64986 dice rolls

10% chance of bust ( for my 10% friend, in-joke)
1 in 1647 7s
or 1 in 9882 dice rolls
formula for excel:
=LOG(1-0.1)/LOG(1-0.000064)

Depending on how choppy the table is, it usually takes 2-3 shoes to hit win goal. I done it as quick as a shoe and a half.. 2.5 is about average tho. And thanks for running the simulation

Quote: 7craps

Once a number goes to level one after a win, you never increase it until it loses (except for the inside #s since they always start out at level#2).

A bet then is never increased after a win.

And you always increase after a loss - only if the number group (place mates) did not win before it lost.

I have been playing in manual mode in Wincraps and just wanted to make sure of the "rules"

I have hit level 6 once for the 4&10 replaying actual Vegas craps table dice rolls. I did hit the big bet and brought both down to $5. Question. What if a level six on one number does not hit? What would be the plan according to your system?

Yes you are correct increase level up if grouping don't hit and down to base level 1 after it does hit. As far as what to do if it goes past level 6, I don't know what I will do? what would you suggest? Most likely I will probably bet at same level?

Quote: cartytay

Depending on how choppy the table is, it usually takes 2-3 shoes to hit win goal. I done it as quick as a shoe and a half.. 2.5 is about average tho. And thanks for running the simulation

OK.edit0002

Quote: rudeboyoi

why not just do a progression on the 6 and 8? youre giving up too much betting on those outside numbers.

like

6 and 6

12 and 12

36 and 36

96 and 96

This probably makes the most since and the safest but I like the 7/5 payoff on the 5 and 9 and the 9/5 payoff on the 4 and 10 especially since I have an equal chance of 4 or 10 against the 7. Both have 6 ways of showing on any 1 throw