GN AC vs. Darkoz
Quote: billryanOMG..., now we are going to have to read that you need $60,000 in seed money to play these tricks.
Maybe that is better off. Some people just can't handle the truth.
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No. He clearly said $2000 on average. Stop trolling.
Quote: darkozOn a lousy $2 slots wager, I nonetheless won a $2000 top award, against all odds jackpot.
I sat there staring at the blue message that read "handpay, call attendant"
Sat there in a latex mask with a face that didn't match the image on my state ID with a player's card not my own on a wager from freeplay in a casino I had already been backroomed in with a warning not to ever multi-card again!
What's an Advantage Player to do?
What to do?
Duh!
Shirley, I mean surely you jest.
Self-preservation 101: you get up and leave IMMEDIATELY.
Hopefully you weren't silly enough to stick around, like a lost lamb in a slaughterhouse: if so...hello, Darwin Award.
Quote: MrVQuote: darkozOn a lousy $2 slots wager, I nonetheless won a $2000 top award, against all odds jackpot.
I sat there staring at the blue message that read "handpay, call attendant"
Sat there in a latex mask with a face that didn't match the image on my state ID with a player's card not my own on a wager from freeplay in a casino I had already been backroomed in with a warning not to ever multi-card again!
What's an Advantage Player to do?
What to do?
Duh!
Shirley, I mean surely you jest.
Self-preservation 101: you get up and leave IMMEDIATELY.
Hopefully you weren't silly enough to stick around, like a lost lamb in a slaughterhouse: if so...hello, Darwin Award.
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I am anxious to hear what people would do in my situation.
I will say you have the worst idea possible. But the most intuitive.
Quote: mcallister3200Obvious answer is to choose a machine where it’s literally impossible to trigger the jackpot rather than extremely unlikely right? It probably wasn’t unlikely to happen at some point and has probably happened more than once if you’ve made a consistent habit of it I’m guessing.
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Yes, that was the great part of VBJ. But they only had a limited number of seats at the bar. So to avoid using so many cards at the same machines I had to do some slots.
It did catch me by surprise. But I seem to win jackpots when it's the absolute worst time.
I would suspect that your gaming jurisdiction has similar rules to those of Nevada and if you did do a version of "dine and dash" that casino is holding the payout for the cardholder. However, in the Nevada case the player was matched to the eye's video. So I don't know what complications there are now.
In an "easy scenario" your cardholder buddy would claim the $2k and you'd make a deal on the split.
I used to lend my cards at a certain casino to a friend so he could use my free play. I told him he could keep any small wins but if there were a handpay I'd take 10% to pick it up.
He was playing VP and $125 was worth my while.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymIn general, currently, if one were to "invest" $60k in slot play at Vegas, Reno, Henderson, etc. casinos, would they reciprocate with the kind of free play you speak of above, i.e., $200 daily for an extended period of time? In other words, is your "system" actually effective in real time today?
tuttigym
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Very unlikely, you need to do your homework and put in lots of time exploring the best opportunities. When one pops up you need to be ready and jump on it immediately. As I mentioned in a different post, many years ago I found one that was giving $200-$300 freeplay an hour for big play. It lasted for close to six months before it died out.
Quote: tuttigymIn general, currently, if one were to "invest" $60k in slot play at Vegas, Reno, Henderson, etc. casinos, would they reciprocate with the kind of free play you speak of above, i.e., $200 daily for an extended period of time? In other words, is your "system" actually effective in real time today?
tuttigym
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Now that Darkoz has mentioned $60,000 of seed money or approximately $2000 each on 30 cards let me say THAT can generate a hell of a lot of free play.
First let's look at $60,000 of seed money. Darkoz doesnt mention, I dont recall, playing it thru once. He easily could have played that through TEN TIMES with the house edge eroding only 3% with each play through.
$60,000 first pass
$58,200 second pass
$56,454 third pass
$54,760 fourth pass
$53,117 fifth pass
$51,524 sixth pass
$49,978 seventh pass
$48,479 eighth pass
$47,024 ninth pass
$45,613 tenth pass
Total coin in on ten passes is well over a half million dollars... and he still has more than 75% of his original bank roll.
If a casino awards free play equal to one percent of coin in that's over $5000 of free play. On 30 cards that's
$166 per card.
It's starting to make sense that he can hit some winners to hit some big weekly totals. Yes... even $20,000 with a little luck.
So in summary... give me $60,000 at Red Rock. I'll play 8/5 Bonus on Thursdays and Sundays when you get 10X on points and I might even do better than Darkoz.
And I'll play on one card -- my own -- and I wont get backroomed.
I’m going to ask the seemingly craziest question ever. Given everything that actually happened, if you knew what would have happened in advance, do you think it would have been a good decision to stop at the first sign of heat?
Quote: randompersonThe 60k is a sunk cost, it shouldn’t matter if you are doing things optimally.
I’m going to ask the seemingly craziest question ever. Given everything that actually happened, if you knew what would have happened in advance, do you think it would have been a good decision to stop at the first sign of heat?
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Is that before or after I invested the $60,000?
I don't care if it's an inferno, if I am leaving money on the table it's war.
Quote: randompersonYou could imagine a card where you make 1k and one where you lose 5k on a play in which you should lose 2k. If you get the same offers for those two cards, you shouldn’t behave any differently on one versus the other because you aren’t even on one but are on the other. You should always maximize future ev regardless of what happened in the past.
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He’s not saying anything other than that really. But agree the reference to the $60k is a sunk cost. But there are still offers to collect in the cards, all +EV, and his downside is to get trespassed (so what).
Quote: randompersonIf you read the whole thread, he got some pretty nuclear heat at a variety of different casinos because of valley forge and their vendetta against him.
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If I understand Unjons so what comment it's that being trespassed is the worst they can do.
Yes other locations were notified and went nuclear on me but in the same vein what could they do? Evict me!
In other words, I did nothing illegal so the casinos couldn't arrest me. All they could do was evict me and cancel my offers. So what?
Financial harm by cutting offers basically and telling me to hit the road
All of this is just part of the business. If you accept the issues with your business sobeit.
A police officer gets shot and maimed. No one asks him if now that he's crippled would he have done something different career wise. He knew the dangera and had a desire.
Same with my AP.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: tuttigymIn general, currently, if one were to "invest" $60k in slot play at Vegas, Reno, Henderson, etc. casinos, would they reciprocate with the kind of free play you speak of above, i.e., $200 daily for an extended period of time? In other words, is your "system" actually effective in real time today?
tuttigym
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Now that Darkoz has mentioned $60,000 of seed money or approximately $2000 each on 30 cards let me say THAT can generate a hell of a lot of free play.
First let's look at $60,000 of seed money. Darkoz doesnt mention, I dont recall, playing it thru once. He easily could have played that through TEN TIMES with the house edge eroding only 3% with each play through.
$60,000 first pass
$58,200 second pass
$56,454 third pass
$54,760 fourth pass
$53,117 fifth pass
$51,524 sixth pass
$49,978 seventh pass
$48,479 eighth pass
$47,024 ninth pass
$45,613 tenth pass
Total coin in on ten passes is well over a half million dollars... and he still has more than 75% of his original bank roll.
If a casino awards free play equal to one percent of coin in that's over $5000 of free play. On 30 cards that's
$166 per card.
It's starting to make sense that he can hit some winners to hit some big weekly totals. Yes... even $20,000 with a little luck.
So in summary... give me $60,000 at Red Rock. I'll play 8/5 Bonus on Thursdays and Sundays when you get 10X on points and I might even do better than Darkoz.
And I'll play on one card -- my own -- and I wont get backroomed.
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Incredible.
Quote: randompersonEvaluation of your past actions is essential to getting anywhere close to optimal results. You can make a good decision and get bad results, but the notion that you should never re evaluate past actions and use that to consider future changes is a little off to me.
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I'm just not certain what stage you feel I should reevaluate.
Are you asking me with hindsight should I have avoided going to the Valley Forge at all?
Your question asked if I would do anything different once it got hot there. And it didn't get hot until it was too late to go back.
This is what I do. I prefer the quiet battle but casinos sometimes become aware of an AP activity.
You could also have thrown the batch of cards in the garbage and organized another batch at a later date with different people doing the work after everything cooled down.
And most obviously, you could have at least thrown out the half of cards that you knew they knew about and moved on with the other ones. You make it seem as if the only reason you didn’t do this was because you hadn’t recouped your investment yet.
Quote: randompersonAfter the first back room, you could have just moved on to the next thing.
You could also have thrown the batch of cards in the garbage and organized another batch at a later date with different people doing the work after everything cooled down.
And most obviously, you could have at least thrown out the half of cards that you knew they knew about and moved on with the other ones. You make it seem as if the only reason you didn’t do this was because you hadn’t recouped your investment yet.
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There are different ways to handle things. I might do things differently, as might you. It's not as if there is a manual with a FAQ section in it. Some might slow walk it and others bullrush it.
Quote: randompersonAfter the first back room, you could have just moved on to the next thing.
You could also have thrown the batch of cards in the garbage and organized another batch at a later date with different people doing the work after everything cooled down.
And most obviously, you could have at least thrown out the half of cards that you knew they knew about and moved on with the other ones. You make it seem as if the only reason you didn’t do this was because you hadn’t recouped your investment yet.
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If I understand you correctly you think it would have cost me less to lose fifty thousand dollars than recoup it and have some heat in AC?
Quote: darkozcost me less to lose fifty thousand dollars
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If you lost $50k I no longer doubt anything you've said about getting the free play necessary to have $20,000 weeks.
After losing -- or investing -- $50k and I'm sure that includes multiple replays to earn points -- you must have been loaded with comps and free play.
And in that case I agree that you should have gone to war to keep it. That's a real business and you should fight for it.
My guess is your $50k "investment" gave you $1.5-million of coin in.
i dont think you'll get the same freeplay offers playing 8/5 vp vs 90% rtp slot.Quote: AlanMendelsonSo in summary... give me $60,000 at Red Rock. I'll play 8/5 Bonus on Thursdays and Sundays when you get 10X on points and I might even do better than Darkoz.
And I'll play on one card -- my own -- and I wont get backroomed.
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but given your history of playing alot of VP with $2.9M in w2-g's, why not try it?
lose $15k at Red Rock vp on 10x day then stop playing.
then report back on the freeplay you get.
But at the same time amazed by the patience APs here displayed explaining, and re-explaining the idea so I'll try to help. Even though it is said insanity is trying the same thing and expecting different results.
1 - Regarding the 5000$ coin-in mentioned earlier that raised many eyebrows. 5000$ doesn't mean you need to walk in with 5000$ to gamble with. You just need to run it through the machine. Most posters here who thought that's above their gambling levels probably did get that kind of coin-in in a day without realizing it, walking in with like 200$ and just surviving long enough.
2 - @alan, regarding match play, most casinos offer table games match play that gets taken away win or lose, so it is worth a little less than half the number on the match play if you bet it on even money bets like Blackjack (and it is often the only way you're allowed to play it). Free play on the other hand can be converted to cash at above 98% efficiency with a good VP game. That's why if offered 100$ free play or 100$ match-play, always pick the free play, it is worth double.
The wizard has some good analysis on other types of promos: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
3 - @tuttygm The way most casino marketing works is they evaluate how much they can get out of you on a day, or your ADT. The thing is on games involving skill, that calculation is based on their internal averages, not the optimum play. For example, a blackjack game with liberal rules that has a house edge of -0.36% might be estimated by the casino as -2%, because that is what they get from the average player. a VP game paying back 99.6% might be evaluated as 99% or -1% to the house, again because most people make mistakes.
So for example if one day, I walk into the casino for the first time with something like 2000$, I sit at a blackjack table for 5 hours, playing 100 hands per hour with perfect basic strategy and betting 100$/hand. Ignoring splits and doubles, I got 100*100*5= 50000$ action! If the casino thinks they keep 2% on average, they will estimate I will lose 1000$ on that day (my actual results will vary but that's not the point here). Typically they can comp me about 10 to 20% of that, so up to 200$ per visit, in addition to about 10$ to 50$ in points that can become free play...Etc.
Except if I play perfect basic strategy, losing 0.36% only for a total expected loss of 180$.
Now the casino is going to offer me for example by-weekly offers of 100$ to 200$ to come gamble for the next 8 to 12 weeks. But I can decide to not gamble anymore and just come and pickup the freeplay and leave. 200$ twice a week for a few weeks before the casino downgrades my offers is way more than my original investment.
Another example is taking Darkoz's numbers and making some speculations:
create a new card, play a 99.6% VP game that is rated as 99% by the casino.
Play 0.25 cent 100 play machines to reduce variance, generate coin-in faster and avoid handpays except on dealt hands. For 125$/spin, at 1000 hands per hour, for 3 hours:
125*1000*3 = 375000$ coin in.
375000*0.4% = 1500$ theoretical loss. Add some food, travel expenses and cash pay for people to make a card and we get around 2000$ investment per card.
Now the casino's side: They think they have a player that gets 375000$ coin in a day on a machine that gives them on average 1% (average people make mistakes when playing), so they expect to keep 3750$ on average when a player of this level visits. They are going to incentivize him to visit often with 400$ free play every time he visits. If he's local they might make it a daily offer. They assume that if he comes in, he's going to gamble, if he doesn't he can't use the freeplay and they didn't lose anything!
Now casinos are not idiots. They know some can take advantage of this but they do this because this model works well on the general population. Just like they could stop offering countable blackjack shoes and do CSM only, but despite card counters, they make too much money from average players that like shoe games. People that gamble like degenerates on a given day don't typically turn into savvy people that only visit the casino, pick up free play and leave, so it works for the casino to pay these people to come through the front door.
Darkoz just takes advantage of that (and many many other less obvious things I'm sure) to make money.
You guys are bringing the wrong people into this, and they are literally destroy casino marketing budgets. Casinos do shut down entire clubs ( every card including customers ) to purge if things get out of hand. I personally have seen two purges in the last 8 months…. Big time casinos not small ones. I just don’t understand the urge to explain this to anyone. Now we are putting numbers on things… is just absurd
Quote: SeedvalueSerious question. Do you guys feel guilty for the amount of money you made ? Is this why some of you spell out exactly how to do these things? Anyone doing this at a high level paid their way. We Figured out how to do this by trial and error on our own dime. Some casinos take months to figure out. I never understood the urge to spoon feed this information to everyone. We got guys running around now living card to card telling everyone how to do this down to the very last detail. It’s really mind boggling to be honest. It’s like some people can’t wait to tell everyone how smart they are.
You guys are bringing the wrong people into this, and they are literally destroy casino marketing budgets. Casinos do shut down entire clubs ( every card including customers ) to purge if things get out of hand. I personally have seen two purges in the last 8 months…. Big time casinos not small ones. I just don’t understand the urge to explain this to anyone. Now we are putting numbers on things… is just absurd
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I haven't given anything away that isn't obvious and commonly known. Just tried to explain it. Almost any serious gambler knows how offers relate to play, what the word "coin-in" means...Etc. And I guarantee every casino knows everything I wrote.
I put example numbers to illustrate the point. I'm a long-time AP and I understand the need to avoid TMI believe me, but this post isn't TMI.
By your standard, the wizard's intro to high-lo is also TMI, and he gives examples on bet spreads and winrates!
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/
The link about how to play promo chips is also TMI? They might make match play half the value! hell probably all of Wizardofodds and wizardofvegas are TMI then by that standard...
As to why I feel the urge to explain, no I do not feel guilty, I do not feel sympathy towards casinos, I feel sympathy towards gamblers. Kinda like this site and the wizardofodds, I believe it is good to educate people who like gambling to get a fair shake at casinos.
I don't think people reading my post are going to start multicarding operations, it takes more than that. But they might understand a bit more about comps.
I see the math-challenged members here not understanding what serious APs are talking about, but they understand what betting system peddlers are saying, so they go the wrong side and get taken advantage of. I just try to explain and hopefully they will choose better who's info to trust on this forum.
If I may add to the previous post, read books like Comp city by Max Rubin. You'll find info a million times more useful than my post, and happy gambling.
I think you underestimate the value of getting kicked out of a casino. Every casino you are still able to go in is worth money. In your case potentially a lot of money. Acting casually like getting kicked out of a bunch in a short amount of time doesn’t matter strikes me as wrong. Every one costs you some potential future ev so you shouldn’t throw them away like they are nothing.
There is also a difference between just you getting kicked out and the catastrophic end of the entire play. If you poke the bear and keep going back in after the first sign of heat, you are much more likely to see the latter
Quote: randompersonDarkOz,
I think you underestimate the value of getting kicked out of a casino. Every casino you are still able to go in is worth money. In your case potentially a lot of money. Acting casually like getting kicked out of a bunch in a short amount of time doesn’t matter strikes me as wrong. Every one costs you some potential future ev so you shouldn’t throw them away like they are nothing.
There is also a difference between just you getting kicked out and the catastrophic end of the entire play. If you poke the bear and keep going back in after the first sign of heat, you are much more likely to see the latter
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Randomperson
I agree with the sentiment. I hardly consider donning thousand dollars masks that I barely can breathe in and other discretionary action to beat a casino to be cavalier. Perhaps I give off that impression by my written bravado
Make no mistake. I strike fear in the minds of the casinos. NOT THE OPPOSITE. They don't frighten me!
I walked in ten years ago homeless with pennies. EVERY CENT I am worth today including the sixty grand investment at Valley Forge came from the casinos to begin with.
I understand your"poking the bear" comment. I agree with your sentiment but not the analysis. You are telling an average person the stupidity of poking s bear and getting paw swiped, that makes sense
But tell the bear hunter that he should just leave the bears alone because it's dangerous?
Anybody who drives INTO a tornado is crazy in my opinion. But I recognize there are tornado hunters who make a living doing it. I would look foolish if I told a tornado hunter to just walk away from tornadoes, they might get blown away.
This is what I do. AP's making a living have to face the music. Just about every card counter has felt the heat. If you can't handle it, the life of an AP isn't for you.
Finally let me just state that you are respectfully making post hindsight discretion. I am not psychic and can't tell the future. I went into the war with the Valley Forge knowing the dangers but HOPEFUL AND EXPECTANT I would be victorious. I certainly didn't know anything at the Valley Forge in 2016 about a trial for trespassing that awaited me at the Golden Nugget in April of 2019. I wasn't saying (because I can't tell the future) well let me abandon $50,000 investment so I can avoid a trial for trespassing in three years.
To use your bear analogy, my whole AP business is predicated on poking the bears(or sneaking in and grabbing their honey if you will) If you have a fear of bears, this isn't the life for you.
Quote: randompersonI understand most of the people who comment on the thread don’t do the play. I have done it for a long time just like you. In my opinion the right analogy is the sleeping giant. You get to do what you do because they aren’t paying close enough attention. Once the giant awakens, it’s very easy to crack down and I know we have both seen it many times. If I have to give up some ev to keep the giant sleeping, then I do it because it’s literally the most important thing for longevity.
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Well, different approaches.
I take a no holds barred approach.
They haven't stopped me and I am more an annoyance to them than they are to me.
I live exclusively off the money from their ranks.
There's nothing wrong with your way although I question leaving fifty grand behind. That doesn't sound like a viable plan for when things go wrong.
EDIT: If you feel I should have left Valley Forge alone, you probably will be really shocked when I discuss the KRAKEN in an upcoming post
Quote: darkoz
EDIT: If you feel I should have left Valley Forge alone, you probably will be really shocked when I discuss the KRAKEN in an upcoming post
Holy cow!!! You made enough money with your AP to buy the Seattle Kraken?
Quote: SeedvalueSerious question. Do you guys feel guilty for the amount of money you made ?
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Darkoz lost $50k to make whatever money he made. There should be no guilt on his part.
In fact I'm surprised some exec at that casino hasnt gone to bat for him?
So a question for Darkoz, did you have a host? Or did you lack a host and associated benefits because your play was spread out over 54 cards???
Quote: randompersonThe fact that there are other plays in the future at that same casino is exactly the reason why you preserve your life in the game as much as possible. I’m sure you have had plenty of casinos you thought were dead that came back to life later on.
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Lol, I am much too wise for that.
While my lawsuit against Resorts World for evicting me improperly was going on for five years, my team was inside hitting them harder than when they caught me.
My "life" in the casino doesn't require my physical person. Without stepping foot inside Resorts World, I smoked them through 2019. I wrote about it in one of these threads.
As much as some believe they are AP on some level, I do not believe there are many that are on a level with Mr. Darkoz. To put it in perspective, there are millions of people who play golf, but try as they might, few are willing to put in the work of 10 hours a day hitting balls, putting, chipping, sand play, gym work, stretching, weight training, course play, local, regional, and national competitions, and so on. With all of that, there are still several hundred men and women playing professional golf on several different tours. As a comparison, out of the millions of people who participate in casino gambling, how many would make a substantial investment ($60,000), spend hours on end sitting at slots, put together a cadre or team of devoted, honest, and committed friends/participants, travel around a lot to various casinos to collect and redeem and play out offers to the extent of making a really good living?
My guess, there are more pro golfers, pro tennis players, pro baseball players, pro football and basketball players, and more billionaires than Darkoz's.
tuttigym
Quote: randompersonOf course, but that happened because resorts world didn’t figure it all out. I remember reading from one of your previous threads that at the trial they had no idea what your play was. If you keep doing the play full power when they are paying the greatest possible attention, it’s more likely they put the pieces together.
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If he's playing on 54 or 30 or 60 cards how are they going to put anything together?
Right now it looks like they're picking on a minnow.
Quote: randompersonOf course, but that happened because resorts world didn’t figure it all out. I remember reading from one of your previous threads that at the trial they had no idea what your play was. If you keep doing the play full power when they are paying the greatest possible attention, it’s more likely they put the pieces together.
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As I will expose from documents in the dossier, Valley Forge never truly understood what I do either.
Quote: billryanPure comedy gold
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???? Running your post numbers without content or context.
tuttigym
Quote: tyler4983 - @tuttygm The way most casino marketing works is they evaluate how much they can get out of you on a day, or your ADT. The thing is on games involving skill, that calculation is based on their internal averages, not the optimum play. For example, a blackjack game with liberal rules that has a house edge of -0.36% might be estimated by the casino as -2%, because that is what they get from the average player. a VP game paying back 99.6% might be evaluated as 99% or -1% to the house, again because most people make mistakes.
So for example if one day, I walk into the casino for the first time with something like 2000$, I sit at a blackjack table for 5 hours, playing 100 hands per hour with perfect basic strategy and betting 100$/hand. Ignoring splits and doubles, I got 100*100*5= 50000$ action! If the casino thinks they keep 2% on average, they will estimate I will lose 1000$ on that day (my actual results will vary but that's not the point here). Typically they can comp me about 10 to 20% of that, so up to 200$ per visit, in addition to about 10$ to 50$ in points that can become free play...Etc.
Except if I play perfect basic strategy, losing 0.36% only for a total expected loss of 180$.
Now the casino is going to offer me for example by-weekly offers of 100$ to 200$ to come gamble for the next 8 to 12 weeks. But I can decide to not gamble anymore and just come and pickup the freeplay and leave. 200$ twice a week for a few weeks before the casino downgrades my offers is way more than my original investment.
Another example is taking Darkoz's numbers and making some speculations:
create a new card, play a 99.6% VP game that is rated as 99% by the casino.
Play 0.25 cent 100 play machines to reduce variance, generate coin-in faster and avoid handpays except on dealt hands. For 125$/spin, at 1000 hands per hour, for 3 hours:
125*1000*3 = 375000$ coin in.
375000*0.4% = 1500$ theoretical loss. Add some food, travel expenses and cash pay for people to make a card and we get around 2000$ investment per card.
Now the casino's side: They think they have a player that gets 375000$ coin in a day on a machine that gives them on average 1% (average people make mistakes when playing), so they expect to keep 3750$ on average when a player of this level visits. They are going to incentivize him to visit often with 400$ free play every time he visits. If he's local they might make it a daily offer. They assume that if he comes in, he's going to gamble, if he doesn't he can't use the freeplay and they didn't lose anything!
Now casinos are not idiots. They know some can take advantage of this but they do this because this model works well on the general population. Just like they could stop offering countable blackjack shoes and do CSM only, but despite card counters, they make too much money from average players that like shoe games. People that gamble like degenerates on a given day don't typically turn into savvy people that only visit the casino, pick up free play and leave, so it works for the casino to pay these people to come through the front door.
Darkoz just takes advantage of that (and many many other less obvious things I'm sure) to make money.
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If I am a casino manager, why not alert all my security to any player using multiple cards at the same or adjacent machines? Their task would be to approach the patron, and with the utmost courtesy, confiscate all the cards, void the PINs, and ask them to leave? For the "chain" casinos, MGM, Harrah's, etc., that should be standard procedure. I just cannot believe there is no such process in place, so why not or have things changed?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: tyler4983 - @tuttygm The way most casino marketing works is they evaluate how much they can get out of you on a day, or your ADT. The thing is on games involving skill, that calculation is based on their internal averages, not the optimum play. For example, a blackjack game with liberal rules that has a house edge of -0.36% might be estimated by the casino as -2%, because that is what they get from the average player. a VP game paying back 99.6% might be evaluated as 99% or -1% to the house, again because most people make mistakes.
So for example if one day, I walk into the casino for the first time with something like 2000$, I sit at a blackjack table for 5 hours, playing 100 hands per hour with perfect basic strategy and betting 100$/hand. Ignoring splits and doubles, I got 100*100*5= 50000$ action! If the casino thinks they keep 2% on average, they will estimate I will lose 1000$ on that day (my actual results will vary but that's not the point here). Typically they can comp me about 10 to 20% of that, so up to 200$ per visit, in addition to about 10$ to 50$ in points that can become free play...Etc.
Except if I play perfect basic strategy, losing 0.36% only for a total expected loss of 180$.
Now the casino is going to offer me for example by-weekly offers of 100$ to 200$ to come gamble for the next 8 to 12 weeks. But I can decide to not gamble anymore and just come and pickup the freeplay and leave. 200$ twice a week for a few weeks before the casino downgrades my offers is way more than my original investment.
Another example is taking Darkoz's numbers and making some speculations:
create a new card, play a 99.6% VP game that is rated as 99% by the casino.
Play 0.25 cent 100 play machines to reduce variance, generate coin-in faster and avoid handpays except on dealt hands. For 125$/spin, at 1000 hands per hour, for 3 hours:
125*1000*3 = 375000$ coin in.
375000*0.4% = 1500$ theoretical loss. Add some food, travel expenses and cash pay for people to make a card and we get around 2000$ investment per card.
Now the casino's side: They think they have a player that gets 375000$ coin in a day on a machine that gives them on average 1% (average people make mistakes when playing), so they expect to keep 3750$ on average when a player of this level visits. They are going to incentivize him to visit often with 400$ free play every time he visits. If he's local they might make it a daily offer. They assume that if he comes in, he's going to gamble, if he doesn't he can't use the freeplay and they didn't lose anything!
Now casinos are not idiots. They know some can take advantage of this but they do this because this model works well on the general population. Just like they could stop offering countable blackjack shoes and do CSM only, but despite card counters, they make too much money from average players that like shoe games. People that gamble like degenerates on a given day don't typically turn into savvy people that only visit the casino, pick up free play and leave, so it works for the casino to pay these people to come through the front door.
Darkoz just takes advantage of that (and many many other less obvious things I'm sure) to make money.
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If I am a casino manager, why not alert all my security to any player using multiple cards at the same or adjacent machines? Their task would be to approach the patron, and with the utmost courtesy, confiscate all the cards, void the PINs, and ask them to leave? For the "chain" casinos, MGM, Harrah's, etc., that should be standard procedure. I just cannot believe there is no such process in place, so why not or have things changed?
tuttigym
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How would you know they are using multiple player's cards in the first place?
Using a player's card is what every patron in the casino is doing. You expect surveillance to zoom in on the card being used by every single patron and then check when they switch seats if they also switched cards?
Quote: darkozHow would you know they are using multiple player's cards in the first place?
Using a player's card is what every patron in the casino is doing. You expect surveillance to zoom in on the card being used by every single patron and then check when they switch seats if they also switched cards?
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With refined video surveillance, video playback, some sharp eyes, and time that would be doable. I really think that there are "experts" in surveillance who could learn the "tricks" of the trade and teach others to monitor such play. Inserting Player's cards into machines is an overt act that sometimes has its difficulties. Someone using a "stack" of cards is going to have to replace the insertions often, so the player may actually have a handful of cards visible in the machine or must reach into their pocket to change them out. And, yes, I know that patrons have multiple cards on a string from multiple casinos, but sharp eyes and zoom lenses can detect. Again, one can be taught.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: darkozHow would you know they are using multiple player's cards in the first place?
Using a player's card is what every patron in the casino is doing. You expect surveillance to zoom in on the card being used by every single patron and then check when they switch seats if they also switched cards?
link to original post
With refined video surveillance, video playback, some sharp eyes, and time that would be doable. I really think that there are "experts" in surveillance who could learn the "tricks" of the trade and teach others to monitor such play. Inserting Player's cards into machines is an overt act that sometimes has its difficulties. Someone using a "stack" of cards is going to have to replace the insertions often, so the player may actually have a handful of cards visible in the machine or must reach into their pocket to change them out. And, yes, I know that patrons have multiple cards on a string from multiple casinos, but sharp eyes and zoom lenses can detect. Again, one can be taught.
tuttigym
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The casino managers are too busy trying to juggle staffing. You expect them to Zoom in and track down individual players and their cards? LOL
Quote: tuttigymQuote: darkozHow would you know they are using multiple player's cards in the first place?
Using a player's card is what every patron in the casino is doing. You expect surveillance to zoom in on the card being used by every single patron and then check when they switch seats if they also switched cards?
link to original post
With refined video surveillance, video playback, some sharp eyes, and time that would be doable. I really think that there are "experts" in surveillance who could learn the "tricks" of the trade and teach others to monitor such play. Inserting Player's cards into machines is an overt act that sometimes has its difficulties. Someone using a "stack" of cards is going to have to replace the insertions often, so the player may actually have a handful of cards visible in the machine or must reach into their pocket to change them out. And, yes, I know that patrons have multiple cards on a string from multiple casinos, but sharp eyes and zoom lenses can detect. Again, one can be taught.
tuttigym
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You give surveillance too much credit.
First how does surveillance work? They have thousands of cameras recording everything. That's NOT my enemy. That's my Friend.
A casino maybe has 2000 cameras. Cameras are not intelligent. Without someone watching them the images just go by. Guess how many surveillance officers are watching the monitors?
1000 surveillance people for two cameras apiece? NO
100 surveillance officers for 10 cameras apiece? NO
Actually it's usually just two or maybe four officers.
They each watch 500 cameras. They do this by using thumbnail images across the casino spread out on a bank of monitors. They are doing general scanning for anything suspicious. Putting your players card into a slot isn't suspect.
People switch machines all the time and reinsert their card.
Finally, understand that surveillance ideally just drinks coffee while watching monitors. On a normal day they observe nothing or perhaps some minor disturbance like drunk and disorderly.
It's a reactive job not proactive. They don't want to work harder any more than the average Joe does.
Sorry that's just the way it is.
