GN AC vs. Darkoz
Quote: TumblingBonesI'm no lawyer but I've negotiated a lot of contracts so FWIW I think your interpretation is problematic for two reasons. The first is the one previously note re the use of "or" in the text. The second issue I have is the counter-argument you make (i.e., the "Defense" clause) explicitly states that the actor (e.g., "Dark Oz") had the intent of meeting all obligations imposed by the issuer (i.e., the casino) regarding the usage of the access device. That means that the Terms of Service (ToS) imposed by the issuer and agreed to by the card holder when they accept and start using the card. If the ToS states that cards can't be loaned then while you may be off the hook, the folks providing you with use of their cards may be subject to civil litigation.
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I understand what you are getting at.
Again civil litigation for what? That by loaning out their cards, the card holders must now pay for their free gifts?
I'm not making the gift aspect up. Look up the "gifting principle" in matters such as unjust enrichment or you can wait for a future installment of this thread where I will post it.
Because they tried what you suggest :)
Quote: TumblingBonesThey would have to reimburse the casino for any cost to the casino that resulted from your use of their card. So if you walk off with $20k in cash after using M Z's card then Mr Z has to pony up the $20k
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No, that's just plain wrong.
Which part of "free" play makes you think it has to be paid for?
And that also doesn't take into account that the freeplay isn't truly free to begin with but a gift based on prior rating or in essence it's a rebate for prior purchases. That's actually in tax code as well.
I have been doing this for over a decade now. I have heard these arguments from even casinos. It's never going to happen.
EDIT: Do you agree that if Mr. Z walked off with $20,000 of the casinos money from freeplay on his card that he would not have to pay it back?
If so, then it's a gift meant for Mr. Z and regardless of who actually showed up in the casino, the status of the gift doesn't change.
Finally, (and this has been argued in cases like these) terms of service specifically state what penalties are for loaning out a players card. Loss of current and future offers expulsion from the membership or even the casino. Nothing about financial responsibility for the offers.
Quote: darkozI have been doing this for over a decade now. I have heard these arguments from even casinos. It's never going to happen.
Ah yes, the "never has, never will" argument. I believe I've heard that before...
(sorry, couldn,t resist).
Your assumptions, as well as what constitute a "reasonable" interpretation, are trumped by whatever has been included in any TOS.....
Quote:Do you agree that if Mr. Z walked off with $20,000 of the casinos money from freeplay on his card that he would not have to pay it back?
I would agree with that
Quote:
If so, then it's a gift meant for Mr. Z and regardless of who actually showed up in the casino, the status of the gift doesn't change.
Not true. The "gift" is subject to whatever limitations imposed by the casino (e.g., it not being transferable).
Quote:Finally, (and this has been argued in cases like these) terms of service specifically state what penalties are for loaning out a players card. Loss of current and future offers expulsion from the membership or even the casino. Nothing about financial responsibility for the offers.
The inclusion or exclusion of financial penalties would I believe be determined by the wording of the TOS agreement.
tuttigym
Quote: TumblingBones
The inclusion or exclusion of financial penalties would I believe be determined by the wording of the TOS agreement.
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I think we are actually in agreement then.
I have read TOS for many properties pertaining to rewards cards membership and never have I seen one which holds the member financially responsible for activities pertaining to loaning out the players card.
And TOS usually does spell out penalties for use by other members.
One would suppose, considering how widespread use of players cards are by other people (enough to warrant specific mention in TOS and associated penalties) that financial repercussions would have been included as a matter of course if available to the casinos.
Their lack of such terms tells me it's not something they believe they can pursue.
The closest I have come to any financial responsibility in TOS is for free hotel stays at offshore casinos (like in Aruba for example) which state the cost of the room will be billed at room rate if a certain level of play isn't recorded on the trip. But again, that's for casinos outside the states.
Quote:Their lack of such terms tells me it's not something they believe they can pursue.
That's one possibility. Another is the Terms let them but it is implicit. I looked at the Terms ad Conditions for MGM Rewards and you are correct in that while they have a lot of explicit verbiage about violations resulting in
Quote: MGM General Program Conditions Para 27forfeiture of all of the member’s benefits including, but not limited to, accumulated Slot Dollars, Tier Credits, Tier benefits, FREEPLAY and/or MGM Rewards Points
when it come to possible repayment of actual $$$ won via freeplay nothing is explicitly stated. It does however state just after that sentence that
Quote:In addition, MGM reserves the rights to take appropriate legal action to recover damages, including its attorneys’ fees incurred in prosecuting or defending any lawsuit related hereto.
"Damages" could be pretty broadly interpreted. Not sure but that could be a foot in the door to going after repayment of any winning that resulted from a violation of the Terms. Like I said upfront, I'm not a lawyer but it would give me pause, especially if I was hitting them as hard as you are.
Quote: TumblingBonesI think we are, in the end, mostly in sync.
Quote:Their lack of such terms tells me it's not something they believe they can pursue.
That's one possibility. Another is the Terms let them but it is implicit. I looked at the Terms ad Conditions for MGM Rewards and you are correct in that while they have a lot of explicit verbiage about violations resulting inQuote: MGM General Program Conditions Para 27forfeiture of all of the member’s benefits including, but not limited to, accumulated Slot Dollars, Tier Credits, Tier benefits, FREEPLAY and/or MGM Rewards Points
when it come to possible repayment of actual $$$ won via freeplay nothing is explicitly stated. It does however state just after that sentence thatQuote:In addition, MGM reserves the rights to take appropriate legal action to recover damages, including its attorneys’ fees incurred in prosecuting or defending any lawsuit related hereto.
"Damages" could be pretty broadly interpreted. Not sure but that could be a foot in the door to going after repayment of any winning that resulted from a violation of the Terms. Like I said upfront, I'm not a lawyer but it would give me pause, especially if I was hitting them as hard as you are.
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Well I have hit MGM and had two of my people evicted for using other players cards from MGM property.
No lawsuit.
When the players went to the casino they were told they weren't eligible for offers any longer.
I really don't believe there will ever be a suit to recover damages from players the way you suggest.
Quote:19. MGM Rewards loyalty balances including, but not limited to, Tier Credits, MGM Rewards Points, and Slot Dollars and “comps” have no cash value.
... so what exactly would they sue for? $0?
Quote: TumblingBonesHow about the cash won using the freeplay?
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Interesting. I could see that argument going two ways.
Unfortunately, they both involve the big casino conglomerate suing a player for winning, which carries its own PR cost.
Quote: TumblingBonesHow about the cash won using the freeplay?
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That would be unlikely: legal fees, interrogatories, possible depositions, and a whole lot of time between filing the complaint and possible trial. The time frame alone could be over a year with court dockets crowded as they are maybe a lot longer. I personally strung out a traffic ticket for over 8 months.
tuttigym
Quote: TumblingBonesHow about the cash won using the freeplay?
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It's just not going to happen.
For example, let us say hypothetically that such a suit is brought.
Let's say that MGM has given Mr. X $200 freeplay on his card and I took it and on a freespin, won a million dollars jackpot.
How much do you believe Mr X should be sued for? The $200 freeplay value or the value of $1 million which I won using the Freeplay?
How about records show I lost $195 of the Freeplay and on only the last solitary $5 spin I win a million dollars. Should Mr. X be sued for just the $5?
AT BEST, perhaps MGM could sue for the value of the Freeplay. Except it has no value. Suing for the value of the cash it turns into?
Let's take it in the opposite direction. Let's say that $200 Freeplay turns into $15 which although rare has happened.
MGM should sue for $15?
Collectively I was using 28 cards and certainly I use many cards at any location I go. You expect class action suits against entire crews of patrons or perhaps MGM will launch dozens if not hundreds of individual lawsuits against patrons.
Or perhaps Mr. X should be held liable for all the other patrons Freeplay that was grabbed and he should ask them to reimburse him
The logistics is just ridiculous not to mention trying to prove damages.
What's in it for them?
I am a student of human nature and there's pretty much always a quid pro quo.
So yeah: you make money off of them and they get ... what, exactly?
Surely they're not all a flock of clueless lambs.
Quote: MrVWhat incentive do people have to give you their cards and all the free play/benefits that might be on them?
What's in it for them?
I am a student of human nature and there's pretty much always a quid pro quo.
So yeah: you make money off of them and they get ... what, exactly?
Surely they're not all a flock of clueless lambs.
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There are two types of people in this world.
Those that will do something for you because you ask them, and those who want something from you to do what you ask.
You figure out who you are dealing with and make quid pro quo arrangements with them.
If you find an opportunity that will give you thousands of dollars, would you give someone $100 for opening the door for you?
On the other hand, if you are in Vegas for a meeting and you don't gamble, will you give up an hour of your time to make $150 and sign up for a few cards? How about if you live in Vegas on a fixed income and don't gamble? Would you sign up for a few cards for $100 a pop? UNLV students? Folks from Nellis? Sex workers? Porn slappers? Uber drivers,
A casino in Henderson had a nice promo. I was top tier and couldn't use it. I invited my neighbor for a comped lunch, gave her $50 and she signed up. Did the same with a different neighbor. For $100 cash and two free lunches, I got two cards that gave me access to the promo. The club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks. When the promo ended, I still got $15-$25 a week for months before they realized the cards were just being used to play free play-thru once.
My neighbor got her son and daughter-in-law to sign up for the cards. They got $100 each and she got two more free meals.
I was pretty much a one-man team but I know of several very well-organized teams that compartmentalize everything. They have recruiters, people who do nothing but play to put points on, people who do nothing but collect free play, people who collect money and seed players as needed, and whatever else needs to be done.
It sounds silly, but there are so many opportunities that you need to pick and chose them.
Quote: billryanThe club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.
So according to this post, you played a video poker machine for $5,000 and only lost $200, i.e, winning $4,800 during a session(s) and then parlayed that play into $1200 of freeplay over the course of 3 months at which you then returned to that casino twice a week to play out the $100. So how much did you win, on average, with each of those $50 offers, and did you continue to play with you own $$$ during any of the offer play sessions? Also, how many other free play cards did you acquire during this "special"?
I personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200. How long does that take? What is a "few" hours, and is that a 'guaranteed" rate of return for all VP? That is a 4% rate of return for the casino. Logically and financially, that does not compute in my mind.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymI personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200.
Would you believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and win?
Quote: tuttigymQuote: billryanThe club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
A few hours of Bonus Poker cost me around $200 and I got $100 a week per card in freeplay for 12 weeks.
So according to this post, you played a video poker machine for $5,000 and only lost $200, i.e, winning $4,800 during a session(s) and then parlayed that play into $1200 of freeplay over the course of 3 months at which you then returned to that casino twice a week to play out the $100. So how much did you win, on average, with each of those $50 offers, and did you continue to play with you own $$$ during any of the offer play sessions? Also, how many other free play cards did you acquire during this "special"?
I personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200. How long does that take? What is a "few" hours, and is that a 'guaranteed" rate of return for all VP? That is a 4% rate of return for the casino. Logically and financially, that does not compute in my mind.
tuttigym
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i know jack sh it about AP play - but from what i think i know about it - being that AP takes advantage of promotions, wouldnt you assume that that the playing through the money and recieving more offers is the goal and not necessarily the profits from those times playing. Yes winning is a great welcomed side effect, but if your goal is to maximize the freeplay offers then you want to put through as much money as possible and not worry about profits per se....
someone tell me how im wrong i know i am lol
Quote: coachbellyQuote: tuttigymI personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200.
Would you believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and win?
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At what point, how much, and what is a win?
tuttigym
Quote: heatmapi know jack sh it about AP play - but from what i think i know about it - being that AP takes advantage of promotions, wouldnt you assume that that the playing through the money and recieving more offers is the goal and not necessarily the profits from those times playing. Yes winning is a great welcomed side effect, but if your goal is to maximize the freeplay offers then you want to put through as much money as possible and not worry about profits per se....
someone tell me how im wrong i know i am lol
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The short answer is a resounding NO. Spending thousands just to get a few hundred doesn't sound like a winning combo to me. The AP'ers propose spending $$$ to get smaller $$$ then "winning" even smaller $$$ to exhibit a profit. Why would one do that? The "professional AP'ers" apparently put together a "syndicate" to produce player cards and go from there. For me, it is tough to wrap my mind around the total concept.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: heatmapi know jack sh it about AP play - but from what i think i know about it - being that AP takes advantage of promotions, wouldnt you assume that that the playing through the money and recieving more offers is the goal and not necessarily the profits from those times playing. Yes winning is a great welcomed side effect, but if your goal is to maximize the freeplay offers then you want to put through as much money as possible and not worry about profits per se....
someone tell me how im wrong i know i am lol
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The short answer is a resounding NO. Spending thousands just to get a few hundred doesn't sound like a winning combo to me. The AP'ers propose spending $$$ to get smaller $$$ then "winning" even smaller $$$ to exhibit a profit. Why would one do that? The "professional AP'ers" apparently put together a "syndicate" to produce player cards and go from there. For me, it is tough to wrap my mind around the total concept.
tuttigym
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The objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.
To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.
The casinos can reduce the frequency of offers but then they are reducing the inducements sent to Ploppies as well.
Five days a week of freeplay offers may get Ploppies in five days a week to lose their money while only handing out freeplay once a week may result in Ploppies only feeling inclined to return once a week.
What would the casino prefer? Five days a week return customers or just once a week?
Of course if they are handing out five days a week incentives (and I know of even seven days a week offers) then that gives an AP team the frequency of offers to recoup their losses.
It's a trade-off for the casinos. And even when they drop their offers, there are enough "tricks" up an AP sleeve to still stick it to them.
So the Hustling Wars continue.
Quote: tuttigymI personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200.
Quote: coachbellyWould you believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and win?
Quote: tuttigymAt what point, how much, and what is a win?
For this exercise, a win is considered being ahead after wagering $5000...that happens all the time.
The goal was to accumulate 5000 points in one day to receive $1200 in freeplay.
That required wagering $5000...not losing $5000, just wagering that amount.
With VP credits worth between 1cent and 100 dollars each, the time spent to wager $5000 varies.
You could play $100 per credit and wager $500 per hand...that would take 10 hands to reach 5000 points, in less than 10 minutes.
Or you could play $10 per credit and $50 per hand, to reach 5000 points after 100 hands, in less than an hour.
...and so on.
If you are playing at $1.00 a hand ( these machines let you bet from 1 hand at a penny to 100 hands at a nickel) and you play 1,000 hands, your expected loss on a 98% machine is about $20. It took a bit of bad luck to lose the $200 while obtaining the 5,000 points.
The casino thought they had signed up a big player as the details of this promo were not supposed to be public but people gossip.
Their offers were for a Quarter at a time and were easy to exploit but most hustlers didn't want to drive to a dump of a casino off the beaten trail to pick up money twice a week when there are juicer pickings closer by.
I'd usually cash out about 90% of the face value of the free play if I cashed out right away, and occasionally I'd play a little on my own card during the week. I enjoyed the bar so I became a regular on the weekends. I would play about 1,000 points in a few hours, drinking for free while socializing. I'd guess most times I left between $40 up and $40 down, including a tip for the barmaiden. That kept my top-tier status so I could eat for free anywhere but the steakhouse. They'd have hourly raffles or announce a hot seat for a spin of their wheel. I won quite a few times but almost always for the lowest prize- $10 cash or sometimes a choice of cheezy gifts.
Quote: billryananyone who spends time in a casino should understand simple math.
My understanding is that, since you got per card offers of $100 per week for 12 weeks, you would have only needed 200 different players cards to get within the $20000 per week range that's been written about (if you cashed out the freeplay collectively at 100%).
How's my math?
How much time did you initially spend running the $5K through on each card, and then collecting the $100 FP each week?
Quote: billryanThe club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
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Excellent! Some actual numbers to discuss!
Okay. $5000 of coin in one time got you $50 X twice a week = $100 per week X 13 weeks = $1300.
I'm going to guess that if you played a 96% video poker game (96% with no royal) the cost of the $5000 coin in would be $200... while you're getting $1300 of free play that at 96% would get you $1248.
Am I close?
Quote: coachbellyQuote: billryananyone who spends time in a casino should understand simple math.
My understanding is that, since you got per card offers of $100 per week for 12 weeks, you would have only needed 200 different players cards to get within the $20000 per week range that's been written about (if you cashed out the freeplay collectively at 100%).
How's my math?
How much time did you initially spend running the $5K through on each card, and then collecting the $100 FP each week?
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I have never claimed to make $20,000 a week doing this. My one-man gang didn't pull in $20,000 a year from my exploits, but it was a nice supplemental income stream and saved me a good deal in food bills.
I don't believe anyone clears $20,000 a week on a regular basis doing this. Others can believe otherwise if they chose.
I took the better part of a day to run $5,000 thru, with a nice comped lunch breaking up the play. Maybe five plus hours of play.
Collecting took a half-hour, plus the time it took to eat. From where I lived, it was a fifteen-twenty minute drive. Almost all my friends lived in the northwest, and it was a good hour each way for them.
Quote: billryanI have never claimed to make $20,000 a week doing this.
LOL...it's understood that you never made the $20K per week claim.
Quote: billryanI don't believe anyone clears $20,000 a week on a regular basis doing this. Others can believe otherwise if they chose.
That's very magnanimous.
Quote: tuttigymI personally find it hard to believe that one could play a video poker game for $5k and lose only $200.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanThe club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
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Excellent! Some actual numbers to discuss!
Okay. $5000 of coin in one time got you $50 X twice a week = $100 per week X 13 weeks = $1300.
I'm going to guess that if you played a 96% video poker game (96% with no royal) the cost of the $5000 coin in would be $200... while you're getting $1300 of free play that at 96% would get you $1248.
Am I close?
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The math is pretty spot-on, except I believe he was referring to losing 200$ for both cards. So the benefit he got was 1248$ X2 after investing 200$ Neg AV in both cards.
Also when calculating it's always better to use Expected value than Actual value. And that wasn't mentioned in the post but should be about the same if he was playing 98% VP
Quote: tyler498Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanThe club gave you 1 point per dollar on coin-in and 5,000 points got you $50 in free play twice a week for the next quarter.
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Excellent! Some actual numbers to discuss!
Okay. $5000 of coin in one time got you $50 X twice a week = $100 per week X 13 weeks = $1300.
I'm going to guess that if you played a 96% video poker game (96% with no royal) the cost of the $5000 coin in would be $200... while you're getting $1300 of free play that at 96% would get you $1248.
Am I close?
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The math is pretty spot-on, except I believe he was referring to losing 200$ for both cards. So the benefit he got was 1248$ X2 after investing 200$ Neg AV in both cards.
Also when calculating it's always better to use Expected value than Actual value. And that wasn't mentioned in the post but should be about the same if he was playing 98% VP
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EV on $5000 coin in isnt enough hands for a royal flush... not when a royal comes about 1 in 42,000 hands.
Let's say he was playing $1 VP. That's only 1,000 hands. Heck even 96% might be too generous on 1,000 hands.
But I'll use 96% as a compromise.
Quote: kumaNow stop it — the hands played doesn’t change the machine’s payback. Does he never get the EV of the Royal even if he plays 42 separate sessions of 1,000 hands apiece?
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Allow me to correct your statement:
"The hands played doesn't change the machine's EXPECTED payback."
With that understood there are some of us who'd like to know the REAL results of a play.
REAL RESULTS are what you take to the bank and pay your rent with.
EXPECTED RESULTS are great for discussing how a play might work.
If someone should say they had $20 of free play and used it on a 98% video poker game and got back 55% of coin in you could say that's a REAL result but is less than EXPECTATION.
I'm sure you understand this.
What is my expected EV if I play one hand?
If I play 100 hands? A million hands?
If I play one hand a day for ten years, is my EV different than if I played 36,000 hands in one day?
If I hit a Royal flush on my very first hand, what is my expected value on the next hand?
If I am dealt back to back full houses, what is the EV of the next hand?
Quote: kumaI think what I understand is that you were not trying to intentionally mislead readers, which was what I originally thought. I now see you truly believe short-term actual results hold any kind of meaning whatsoever. My apologies.
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The reason for looking at real results rather than long term expected value is that there was a claim made that someone profited as much as $20,000 a week using free play on a number of cards.
What is unknown is the exact number of cards, the amount of free play, the cost of getting the free play, the game used for the free play, the denomination played, the expected return and the actual return.
Quote: billryanIf I sit down at a machine that has an EV of 98.6%,
What is my expected EV if I play one hand?
If I play 100 hands? A million hands?
If I play one hand a day for ten years, is my EV different than if I played 36,000 hands in one day?
If I hit a Royal flush on my very first hand, what is my expected value on the next hand?
If I am dealt back to back full houses, what is the EV of the next hand?
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your EV for 1 hand, 100 hands, and 1M hands is 98.6%.
your EV for 36k hands is the same, no matter the time in between.
your EV next hand will always be 98.6%.
variance determines what your AV is. (av = actual value)
there's a formula for EV + variance. i did the calcs for all the VP i play years ago.
then i switched computers. :(
the calcs was only useful to determine how much $ to bring in a session for near worse case scenario.
ie: Caesars gives bonus points for earning 5000 tier credits in a day ($50k coin-in @ vp).
If i run out of $ (including maxxing out ATM withdraw), i screw myself of those bonus tier points which was the purpose of me gambling so heavily that day thus wasted time/effort
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: kumaI think what I understand is that you were not trying to intentionally mislead readers, which was what I originally thought. I now see you truly believe short-term actual results hold any kind of meaning whatsoever. My apologies.
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The reason for looking at real results rather than long term expected value is that there was a claim made that someone profited as much as $20,000 a week using free play on a number of cards.
What is unknown is the exact number of cards, the amount of free play, the cost of getting the free play, the game used for the free play, the denomination played, the expected return and the actual return.
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Everyone knows it's me who makes the claim so it's okay to say Darkoz makes the claim he profits $20,000 a week multicarding.
I also have always been up front that I don't make that amount every week.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
Quote: AlanMendelson100Xodds is correct. Your EXPECTED value never changes no matter how many plays you have.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
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Now if we could only come up with a formula so we knew what the REALIZED VALUE was going to be for our next hundred sessions.
Since I have no idea how that works, all I can do is go by the EV of a play.
Quote: AlanMendelson100Xodds is correct. Your EXPECTED value never changes no matter how many plays you have.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
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Now if we could only come up with a formula so we knew what the REALIZED VALUE was going to be for our next hundred sessions.
Since I have no idea how that works, all I can do is go by the EV of a play.
Quote: billryanQuote: AlanMendelson100Xodds is correct. Your EXPECTED value never changes no matter how many plays you have.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
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Now if we could only come up with a formula so we knew what the REALIZED VALUE was going to be for our next hundred sessions.
Since I have no idea how that works, all I can do is go by the EV of a play.
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If possible eliminate the variance. Not always possible because the casinos hate that.
Example: If you can use freeplay on E-roulette, bet both red and black with a green hedge and you can easily calculate your formula for guaranteed realized return.
Quote: billryanQuote: AlanMendelson100Xodds is correct. Your EXPECTED value never changes no matter how many plays you have.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
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Now if we could only come up with a formula so we knew what the REALIZED VALUE was going to be for our next hundred sessions.
Since I have no idea how that works, all I can do is go by the EV of a play.
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Unfortunately I cant predict your results. I used to be able to predict results but my crystal ball was smashed in the Northridge Earthquake.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanQuote: AlanMendelson100Xodds is correct. Your EXPECTED value never changes no matter how many plays you have.
The REALIZED value is determined when the play is completed.
Let's take ONE HAND played at 9/6 Jack's:
Your EXPECTED value is 99.54% of the bet.
But on that single hand your $5 bet hit two pair which paid $10. Your REALIZED value is a 200% return.
Now, if you hit a blank on that single hand you REALIZED a 100% loss on a game with an EXPECTED value of 99.54-percent.
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Now if we could only come up with a formula so we knew what the REALIZED VALUE was going to be for our next hundred sessions.
Since I have no idea how that works, all I can do is go by the EV of a play.
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Unfortunately I cant predict your results. I used to be able to predict results but my crystal ball was smashed in the Northridge Earthquake.
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So why are you so concerned about them? The more hands you play, the closer your results will be to the EV.
Quote: darkozIf you can use freeplay on E-roulette, bet both red and black with a green hedge and you can easily calculate your formula for guaranteed realized return.
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I've never played E-roulette. Is there a formula that will give you a positive return?
It sounds similar to betting both pass and don't pass in craps with a hedge bet on 12 but there's no positive return possible in that scenario.
If it's different in E-roulette I'd to know what it is?
Quote: darkozThe objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.
To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.
This statement is wonderful in its honesty, but it does not go far enough to offer real clarity. First and foremost, how much does one have to lose? How often? How many cards does one have to have? What does the average offer have to be? How long does it take to fulfill that requirement? and finally, How long before one can expect a net "profit"?
Is this a career choice?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: darkozThe objective is to lose on the gambling and receive enough offers to recoup those losses and make a profit.
To that extent the more a casino supplies offers, the more one has a chance to recoup and profit.
This statement is wonderful in its honesty, but it does not go far enough to offer real clarity. First and foremost, how much does one have to lose? How often? How many cards does one have to have? What does the average offer have to be? How long does it take to fulfill that requirement? and finally, How long before one can expect a net "profit"?
Is this a career choice?
tuttigym
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Let me add a more basic question: what percentage of a bet is returned as free play or even comps? Ideally there is an exact figure for both free play and for comps.
Quote: coachbellyFor this exercise, a win is considered being ahead after wagering $5000...that happens all the time.
What a remarkable statement. And you KNOW THIS HOW?
Quote: coachbellyYou could play $100 per credit and wager $500 per hand...that would take 10 hands to reach 5000 points, in less than 10 minutes.
Or you could play $10 per credit and $50 per hand, to reach 5000 points after 100 hands, in less than an hour.
Is that your MO. I would almost pay to see you play 10 hands at $500 per. That happens "all the time" and only lose $200? Fat chance!
tuttigym
