odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Feb 23, 2013

Gambling and Family

This thread got me thinking. http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13130-craps-betting-strategies/

I offered this opinion:

"IMO this is the wrong goal to have; earning enough, saving enough. investing correctly, keeping control of yourself along with maintaining and enjoying the support of your spouse and family so that you have such a sufficient bankroll, with family support, for your recreation that the ups and downs won't matter.

This is the right goal for Craps play if I may be so flattered as to think anyone cares for my opinion. "

I've given this some thought. *All* these things have to be juggled or there will be problems, and I think you can say it is quite a challenge to pull it all off. But I have highlighted the spouse/family thing because I am in fairly good shape with all the other factors but am still struggling to get my wife on board to the degree I would like. And she gambles [some] herself! As far as other family, I barely have ventured into that area. It's less important, but can't blow it off completely. I don't like the idea of a brother, say, going tsk tsk about it. We are not a gambling family, generally speaking, and you know what that means.

In fact I am sad to report that it is imperative to misrepresent things somewhat to my wife. In my life in general I have taken great pride in my honesty, but I have not been able to maintain this in my marriage. Even outside of gambling I have to take care to have control over the representation of various matters, lest those matters go in to a different direction than I would like. This has been a disappointment to me, but to be sure I would put my wife up against 99% of the other women in the world when it comes to being a good mate. We are very close and loving with very few issues, and the marriage is strong. That's astounding when you think about it.

When it comes to gambling, it is just a fact that she will over-react to it. She has no idea how much cash I need to have around for one thing, that just remains undiscussed. As far as the gambling itself, when I lose, it's just better to minimize how much. But when I win, I also have found I have to play that down! Otherwise she will consider it a windfall and want to blow the money! I would say that indeed I do want to work on improving this situation. As of now I have made little progress. Seems as though it would take some sort of ingenuity as a husband I just havent figured out yet.


These things I have done:

*I have put it bluntly that I am not asking her permission when I plan to gamble. If you want my advice, this is imperative.

*I don't lie to her about what I am doing [like claiming I am fishing when I go to a casino instead]. This was a close call, though, and I was tempted in the past.

*I have explained that it is possible to get over-compensated in the way of free play, match play, free ace coupons, etc., and that it makes complete sense to take advantage of it when it comes by. I get the feeling she is not buying it 100% though.

These things I have failed at:

*She has a fear of ruin that happens to so many gamblers. Of course, there is foundation for this outside of my own experience. That is not to say I think I should be smug about it. But she is not fully on board here.

*Having come to a figure myself only recently about sufficient bankroll, $10,000, I haven't broached the subject to her. I imagine she thinks it is in the hundreds as that is all she ever sees or knows about. But this figure needs to be what I am willing to lose completely and live with it, if it comes to that. I add 0.1% of easily liquidate-able assets to that every year for maintenance and currently it is topping $10k, but the fact is, I can't comfortable play craps and worry about losing $5k or so [with bad luck over many sessions of course] and figure my gambling is over. She has no concept of this.

I wouldnt mind some advice if anyone has the spouse/family thing under control! Fire away!

PS: recently I figured out that I have lost $175/yr gambling in casinos, or $250 if you don't count the years that had no gambling [since 1998 when I first truly would spend any time in a casino]. She is going to hear the first figure next time we talk on this subject. She'll have to do the math herself to add it up though [g]

Comments

Face
Face Feb 23, 2013

That's a bitch, OG. My ex was like this, only worse, and for everything About the best I could hope for was resentful brooding, so you're way ahead of the game there.



All of the stuff you're doing leaves little for improvement, so I've only got one thing that might give her pause to think - Show her how much hobbies cost.



Gambling, since it usually ends in a loss, is easy to vilify. Itís a black and white number, BOOM, youíre down this much. All the other things that could cost way more arenít so obvious.



Hockey is a good example for me. My season costs ~$180 a year, thatís ice time and insurance. Hard to argue that one, itís incredible value for enjoyment. But if I actually broke it down all the wayÖmy god. When you figure broken sticks, skate maintenance, travel, tourney fees, and time lost at work, the actual total of a year of hockey for me is $2,825.72, and that doesnít include food, beer, and medical bills. Food and beer alone will push that over $3,500, and Iím guessing my impending surgery will put it over $6,000. But, unlike the black and white gaming statement, itís easy to hide that ~$3,000 and just call it ď$180Ē.



I remember the same for motorsports, too. You think in terms of cost of vehicle. If you can afford $5,000 for a toy and can get more than $5,000 of enjoyment, it seems an obvious choice. But then figure fuel, tolls, entry fees to tracks, something to haul with, trailer, maintenance, repairs, and damn medical bills again (lol) and youíre talking an extra several thousand a year, every year, all of it ďeasy to hideĒ. After all, your toy ďonly cost $5,000Ē.



Break down something she likes, or something you gave up, or something you almost did but thought twice about, just like this. Perhaps a little perspective is all it takes. I do this a lot for the things I do (in case you couldnít tell =P) As youíve seen on DT, I shave my head, something Iíve done myself since í98. That $6.50 every two weeks Iíve saved comes to $4,225 saved so far, or $169 a year, basically the same as your gambling expense. Losing $4k seems like a kick to the nuts. Seeing that itís no more expensive than a bi-weekly haircut at Ď90s prices kind of puts it into perspective.



And hey! You might actually come home with money! For all Iíve spent, all I have to show for it is brain, ligament and cartilage damage =p

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 24, 2013

You're right. I'll have to work this into the conversation. With gambling, the travel expense is sometimes picked up by the comping, too, so the unseen expenses of gambling are less of a whitewash.



Good thinking! btw, perhaps inspired, the conversation got along a bit last night and seemed to go OK.

FleaStiff
FleaStiff Feb 28, 2013

No matter how much you talk of being Over-Comped and taking advantage of a FREE-THISORTHAT, she knows its a lure to get you in the casino's doors and this time you are going to lose heavily and wake up between a blonde and a red-head. Face it, some wives are just experts at gambling ... until you take them along.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Feb 28, 2013

Fleastiff, you are right. Whatever happens, good or bad, fact is she does not have control. Lest you think I am slamming her for that, on the contrary, it just means she's normal. We all want control. It's human.

aceofspades
aceofspades Mar 03, 2013

I think that advice goes for all gambling, not just craps :-)

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Feb 06, 2013

3 Suits Show at Hot Table in Harrington

Out of the blue the Casino in Harrington DE sends me some great coupons etc. for February. Go figure, I was definitely in the Low Roller file for the last year or so, Piker Division, Category Send-This-Guy-A-Chance-At-A-Drawing-THAT'S-IT. But all of a sudden in the mail I get 3 $10 match play coupons and a Free Ace coupon allowing a $100 bet. The Match play is good for a ton of even money bets including the pass line in Craps. Furthermore certain days the breakfast buffet is free, and to top it off I have $50 to generally blow on food comps in the place. I honestly have no idea how I got out of the Low Roller file, that someone made a mistake is probably a good guess.

Tuesday I get a chance to go over there. After the breakfast buffet I'm in the mood for a couple of good sessions of Right-Side Craps, and need to play at least a little BJ to use the Free Ace Coupon. So I make a Match Play bet to start out my Craps; shooter needs to make a point and I find I can bet the free odds not only on the ten dollars I put down but also the value of the match, so I can bet free odds of $200 on that bet with their 10x odds rules. I chicken out and go with $100; it's a seven-out. Next match play goes down with 3-Craps. Next match play winner-7, but not such a good start for the coupons.

It is a $5 3x4x5x table actually as usual for 9:30 when I started; 10x odds are for $10 line bets. I'm betting $5 on the Pass Line with full odds, getting extra action once in a while with come bets. Players are betting plenty in the center and doing fire bets and the whole 9 yards, but the table is kind and favoring especially the Yo bettors and people are mostly sticking around. I am up plenty and ready for a break, but can't make myself leave this table. Finally around noon the table changes to $10 minimum and I am wary, not making come bets now, but things are still chugging along good enough for me to want to wait and see. I decide to go with 5x odds. I grow the 'roll a bit and give it back some, but it recovers again. Then shooters really start making long rolls and I start making the come bets. The Yo bettors and the Field bettors are cleaning up with lots of 11's and 12's getting rolled [12s pay 3x]. The table is getting pretty excited and it just keeps getting better. I am going for it with plenty of action on line bets, but don't want more than 3 numbers to make at any time. Finally it comes around to a lady shooter and she gets hot and I decide I am going for broke, putting up as many Come bets as I can, but she keeps making her points! I don't care how many numbers I have up! When I do have 3 numbers up she hits those and I have to keep replacing them to keep 3 up, most of the time I can't keep 3 up. My favorite situation! I start betting 6 or 8 on $30 Place bets, unusual for me, to make sure both of those numbers are covered, but she is rolling them all and I can't believe all the Yo's.

This is when 3 Suits show up to check out the action. It's clear they are paying out thousands, probably 10s of thousands, and they really seem to want to make sure all is on the up and up. I have decided to color up along with 3 or 4 other players. I have nearly doubled my $1000 buy-in with a $900 win, first $100 odds loser and all gotten back and more, and brother that is excellent for me. Somehow it's 3:30 in the afternoon.

I call home and find out I have forgotten about an appointment late in the afternoon. I have to leave but stop by to use the Free Ace coupon. That's a loser! So I get to laugh at how my coupons were a bust, but it was a great day at the Craps table.

I don't even have time to find out how to spend the $50 in comps, and I am unlikely to return to the H this month!

Out of time now too, will post this.

Comments

Mission146
Mission146 Feb 06, 2013

What a great Craps session, congratulations!

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Jan 27, 2013

The 'Brier

Some enjoyable gaming at the 'Brier in WV this week. So my New Year's resolution, to gamble more, is under way.

A change in the BJ being offered, it's no longer S17 but H17. This time lost a minor amount playing BJ for a couple of hours. Only saw one hand where dealer took another card to hit soft 17, and it didnt matter to anyone's hand. In Craps, I'm amazed that merely pushing on '12' sends a darkside player from @ 1.4% PA to @1.4% HE as you get no sense the 12 is playing much of a role. Now at BJ I'll evidently be amazed at the effect of this rule change that matters a lot but [so far] is seldom seen in action.

Good couple of days at the Craps table slugging it out for about 3 hours each day. Apparently will still not be able to hang with the Big Boys at the WoV forum as such stretches are quite enough, thank you. $5 table action was never upped to anything higher, and still 3x4x5x. The second night the table was hot nearly the whole time and I made back all losses in BJ and prior day's Craps. Gave a lot of it back when the table cooled but was up too much to wind up down for the trip. Naturally the table was lots of fun with everybody winning. Tipped pretty heavy and walked out happy to be up just a bit overall. My new way of looking at my bankroll is working great, not playing scared now. The dice seemed to sense it and cooperated! A larger session bankroll was in view and the dice had to bow to such confidence, unable to come after it [indulging that superstition].

As for further gambling opps, out the blue Harrington DE is sending some great coupons my way, including the free Ace for up to $100. A February thing for everybody I'd guess, otherwise somehow my name was retrieved from the Low Roller file where it has been for months. I'd like to think some competitiveness is kicking in.

Comments

Doc
Doc Jan 29, 2013

I've only been to the Greenbrier once, and I posted a report here about that a few years ago. At the time, the main casino was still under construction, and the only games (no craps) were in their Tavern Casino. Is that small space still operating? I'm glad to hear that they are offering the low minimums -- if you have to spend a small fortune to stay there and gain entry to the casino, at least they aren't gouging you at the tables. Do you know whether they hike the limits on weekends? (I didn't catch which days you were there.)

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Jan 29, 2013

It's a bit pricey to stay there alright. Not the place to go "regularly" to gamble.



The tavern casino is no more. The new area is very nice with very friendly dealers. The minimums were lower this time compared to the two other times we've gone. I suspect they go up on the weekend, but I haven't been there on a weekend! They evidently take in plenty with the casino, so weekends must be busier for the gaming.

Doc
Doc Jan 30, 2013

I received an email promo yesterday for their Winter Escape special, which is still priced out of my comfort zone. I looked at the web site, and the Tavern Casino is described as available for private events. What a place to hold a private casino night!

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Jan 09, 2013

1 Year of Craps Crazy Simulation

Was just having Wincraps do 90,000 come-outs and calling it something barely within the bounds of possible to do in a year, assuming some sanity:

3x4x5x $10 table, taking full odds, $10 on pass invariable.

8 hours per day, 5 days a week, at my usual pace of about 45 come-outs per hour; in reality it would have to be less hours and more come betting I think, but those are the numbers. Then 50 weeks, calling that one game. Takes the computer forever to kick out a few games.

In Teddy's blewout-bankroll thread, discussion about possible winners. Coincidentally was crunching this year-long thing. Sure enough, first player wins big for a whole year. Been running for hours and only 752 completions so far.

PS: each player starts at $0 bankroll {plays on credit I guess [g]}

Comments

tringlomane
tringlomane Jan 09, 2013

Those next 15 look pretty rough.

7craps
7craps Jan 10, 2013

Interesting concept.

I ran your 90k come-outs 10,000 times in a few minutes and here are the results

Bankroll decreased . . = 80.390% of the time

Bankroll increased . . = 19.600% of the time

Theos

EV =-$12,727.27

SD = $14,746.90

ev/sd = -0.863047596

0.194055649 prob even or ahead



I also went by 4 hour sessions at 30 bets per hour (something I could do)

30K come-outs 10,000 times

Bankroll decreased . . = 69.540% of the time

Bankroll increased . . = 30.440% of the time

Theos

EV =-$-4242.42

SD = $8,514.12

ev/sd = -0.498280762

0.309143083 prob even or ahead



Results look close to expectations



It would take a very large bankroll to make it to the end

ev + 2*SD would get you to a bust rate of about 1 session in 20. Ouch



Yes, unlimited casino credit would work out just fine

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Jan 10, 2013

I was wondering what kind of bankroll would be needed. This does not give the answer exactly, but it would seem that a $50k bankroll would probably last the year. Both the high and low for 729 games was slightly higher at about $65k, so $100k to be nearly totally safe. But what about the next year? I think to say for sure you could keep going year after year ,$150k or more is more like it, with some $20k replacement coming in every year.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Jan 10, 2013

umm, I meant 752 games.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Dec 12, 2012

Summary

The last post gave everybody a headache, I'm sure.

Nonetheless, the subject interests me, if only me.

The only certainty: The session size that is optimal in terms of chances to win, is one bet.
Fairly indisputable: To bet enough that your theoretical loss is in the neighborhood of the value of one standard deviation for the session, is to have crippled the chances for a session win.

Where to be 'in between' is disputable.

One thing that dawned on me after looking at all this myself is that EV as a percentage of SD can be higher in a low HE bet than in a sucker bet like Any 7 and not be as deadly. For the latter, a 12 % figure already knocks winning down to about 30% of sessions, whereas for Craps with odds it is still perhaps acceptable at about 44% of sessions getting the W.

So perhaps there is needed another modifier that re-factors the HE?