odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Oct 08, 2021

Forget the Darseks

I've gotten the message that my previous blogpost was too cryptic, suggesting people didn't 'get it'. 

I'll try to make it clear this time. 

I've got a problem taking advantage of the +EV offers that I'm getting from my online sports betting platform. Most of the problem comes from arbitrarily limiting my funds, I'm determined to use only the winnings I've gotten to take advantage of the offers. In case you haven't heard of it, the Kelly Criterion states that you will lose your bankroll under the normal course of events, if that bankroll is too small vis a vis the size of your bets. Even if those bets are +EV. This can easily be understood with a coin toss game where you keep both coins if you have the closest toss to the wall. One guy brings 1000 coins and one guy 2 coins. Even if guy #2 is a marginally better coin tosser, guy #1 is going to go home a winner every time, save for the most extraordinary luck for #2. 

So, for me, I've created a Kelly situation in that every time I try an offer that represents risking a good % of my bankroll, it will be in effect. Let's say the offer requires a $10 bet [as many do] win or lose on an even money bet. The difference in outcome is $20 on that particular bet, if it wins or loses. I am forcing myself to be such a piker that either outcome is quite noticeable to this arbitrarily limited bankroll. 

The latest development is that I am reaching another arbitrary limit. I can't have $600 in winnings unless I know they are going to subtract losses in any report they would generate. Though I am nowhere near that after losses are subtracted, I am now nearing it as a total with losses not subtracted. Though this is extraordinarily cautious it means I have to stop soon. Seeing what report is generated at the end of the year is going to tell me a lot.

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Oct 04, 2021

Kelly is One of the Gods, Lesson Learned

In Greco-Roman times they believed if you showed arrogance, the gods would soon humble you. It's 2021 now, but I managed to diss the great god Kelly in an arrogant way, and am paying the ancient price with my online sports gambling. 


I'm talking about the god who's scripture takes the shape of the Kelly Criterion. In defense of my arrogance, I realized kind of late that I was probably doomed to have a problem. As usual, early luck kind of misled me. 


What arrogance? Well, I bragged to my poker buddies that my online gambling was +EV and it was like hitting an ATM all the time [with someone else's bankcard]. The god Kelly heard this. I had built up my online gambling bankroll to about 1100 Darseks* not counting any initially deposited money, which I had withdrawn 'plus some', thus being like an ATM. The 1100 Darseks were pure profit, in other words. I was quite pleased about this of course, and decided it meant I would just be able to withdraw money, no more deposits of my money, ha, and this would continue until the house figured out I was cherry-picking their offers, only wagering a few Ds here and there on random bets unconnected to offers. 


What I didn't realize was, I was setting up a Kelly situation. I've blogged about why I decided not to use online gambling to make larger bets, even though +EV. Declining to deposit more in the face of the offers I was getting** meant the amounts I was wagering on the offers was too large of a % of the 1100 Ds that was basically my bankroll limit. Once the NFL offers came in, picking winners has been pretty tough, just when they upped the number of offers. I've been on a losing streak and my bankroll has been cut to @ 755 Darseks. 


I'm still able to go for the offers, but I'm going to be a little more humble about it. It's not impossible that I'll have to add funds. For now I'm saying I don't think so, but the fact remains you have to win *some* of your bets, +EV or not, no?


* For some reason I don't like to reveal real figures, probably from being embarrassed about what a piker I am. Darseks it is. You can google it.


** you can check out the Wizard Livestream thread to see what they are, typically 

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 04, 2021

Are you going to cling on to this fantasy?

I know you to well, in that I cannot see you wagering at such an unregulated, online, off-planet establishment.

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 04, 2021

>unregulated, online, off-planet

>establishment.



What? It's BetMGM regulated by Virginia. I found many things that made me say "I'm not doing this" but the biggest reason not to was that they will send an income reporting form to the IRS if you bet big enough. $600 in winnings, to be exact. It's even possible they don't subtract losses first, they don't say. At the end of the year there will be a win-loss form to look at and make a judgement on. For this year it will be no where near $600 even before losses are subtracted! [I won't tell you how many Darseks that is!]



You'd have to read the others posts to see how it evolved into me sticking with it, won't repeat it here

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 04, 2021

Yes I see what you did there with Cling on and Klingon

OnceDear
OnceDear Oct 04, 2021

I know there's 6000 darsaks to an Archer

odiousgambit
odiousgambit Oct 04, 2021

it slowly occurs to me your entire initial post was tongue in cheek. Sorry, I think I am a little touchy about it. After all you, for sure, are aware that my doctor thinks of me as a walking vessel of despicable vices!! she probably just has accidentally avoided accusing me of gambling addiction



If you want to convert Darseks to Dollars to Pounds, you need to know which decade it was in Klingon history. There was terrible inflation at times. Ha!

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Oct 01, 2021

Review: "The Great War of Archimedes"

Quote: wikipedia page on the Yamato

The 2019 Japanese film Archimedes no Taisen (アルキメデスの大戦, Arukimedesu no Taisen, "Great War of Archimedes") based on a manga by Norifusa Mita tells the story of a dispute within the Japanese Navy over whether to fund the construction of aircraft carriers or a new battleship that would become Yamato. The film begins with the sinking of Yamato* and ends with its commissioning



The Wikipedia page says that manga "are comics or graphic novels originating from Japan."

Kai, the math whiz, is a fictional character, I know now. I was fooled by this, thinking that the character was based on a real person, I guess because we see a lot of that with Hollywood. Perhaps I shouldn't have fast-forwarded through the opening credits. I imagine it's likely, though, that the Japanese are simply used to movies made from all kinds of Mangas. Over here, if a movie was based on a comic book, we expect it to be of the outlandishly imaginative super-hero type, well tipped off that it is fiction. This movie, though, shows that such a movie from Japan can seem to purport real history. The smart, adult movie-goers over there may largely just be aware, but others surely are often fooled, some willingly maybe. You have to be Japanese, maybe, to really get this. 

Certainly I realized right away that it was a concocted story, all the elements are there. You just knew things were over-dramatized, for example Kai has a love interest with the daughter of the villain. Thinking it was based on a true story, I found myself quite bothered by other things that had me saying "it couldn't have happened exactly like this". Kai, for example, is such a whiz at things that he becomes a battleship construction expert overnight, producing valid blueprints in minutes. I could go on. 

The math is not really shown in any interesting way. Kai's use of differential equations is shown as critical [without going into what that is], but really what we are to believe is that Kai is such a phenomenal genius that he can do in a few days what normally takes a large team months or years to do. He succeeds in showing that the battleship advocates are fraudulently presenting too low actual cost, having boiled it down to the correlation between the amount of steel used and the ultimate final cost of any ship. There's no easy way to know if any of this has an historical basis [using the internet. ]

I think it is important to know that what we would call nerds are held in high regard in Japan, to be one is to be another Einstein, practically. What I think is likely to be historical is that the Japanese navy realized in the 30s that they really needed advanced engineering and math produced by the universities to build the kind of modern navy that they needed. This is a dramatization of that. The battleships got built anyway, conceded today to definitely not have been worth the cost. How that happened got dramatized as well, and the end of the movie has a twist. I won't reveal it here other than to say I thought it was kind of stupid. However, it also brought out how much Japanese pride was involved with these creations. 

Should you see this movie? I'd say, only if you want an insight into Japanese culture. In this case it's a pretty small reward, but I'm happy enough that I saw it. 


* sister ship Musashi is not mentioned in the movie

Comments

jpfromla
jpfromla Oct 10, 2021

It was the Japanese failure of strategy, thinking that the war against the US would end in a mammoth battleship fight in the Pacific (like how they defeated the Russians in 1906). The aircraft carrier, like ground based planes proved to be a decisive element in WW2 strategy vs. WW1 strategy. (Along with other technologies)

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Sep 09, 2021

Online Sports Cont.

I've blogged about why the idea of gambling online on *sports* appeals to me, even though I fully intend to resist gambling online with *casino games* should that become available in VA. So, to repeat, I looked into it and was considering making bets if the site allowed you to do so without using a smartphone app; this is how I landed at BetMGM. But in the T&C I learned that they reserve the right to make you jump through hoops to get your winnings, and that they report you to the IRS if you win $600 or more. Neither one of these things is acceptable to me. 

Literally because I was blogging about it, though, I felt I had to see what would happen if I deposited $10 and tried to get it back later. I could kiss ten dollars goodbye, fine. 

To make a long story short, though, things are going fine there. Since I don't want to win enough to get reported, I've just been betting small, making sure I come in well below the threshold. Meanwhile, they consistently make offers to entice you to bet, and these are often indisputably +EV. I was soon just finding that I'm withdrawing money and never making any more deposits.  After getting an odd hassle with the first withdrawal, I seem to have passed muster and gotten myself tagged as a non-concern with any additional ones. These withdrawals are fast and no trouble using Paypal. Of course, consider that with me they are small, too; I don't know what would have happened if I tried to withdraw big winnings. 

There was a recent period when good offers kind of dried up, so I thought "they're on to people who just glom on to the +EV offers and don't much bet otherwise". But it appears that they were just waiting for football season to start, now they're coming again and I am on not on any non-grata 'list' it seems. They even plopped $15 into may account and said 'happy birthday'. Those birthday boy funds require betting one-time-through, but hey, fair enough. 

I have stayed well below the $600 threshold and for football season will increase my bet size somewhat. Who knows, maybe they'll change on me, I certainly don't trust them fully after they put out a T&C with that kind of crap in it. At this point it's just fun to play. Too bad the state and the Feds want a piece of me, like they do all gamblers, or I could bet more. At the same time, I'm the type of gambler who can have fun being a piker.

Comments

Suited89
Suited89 Sep 18, 2021

Before UIGEA, I had an account at Pinnacle, tossed $100 in. Great sports book there with lots of props..

Hole in one at the Masters?

Yankees win 95 or more?

49ers in the Playoffs?

etc.

Season props 10%, DoG bets/props 5%



I liked the "Green" Football teams to the Playoffs

$5 on Packers

$5 on Eagles

$5 on Jets



Lotsa fun... maybe Mets win 80... :o)



Suited89

odiousgambit
Posted by odiousgambit
Jul 27, 2021

UTH Mnemonics

Some mnemonics to assist your UTH play. My play has just naturally come across these, so I thought i'd share.

See if you fit the category, 

The Wizard Simple Strategy is as far as I can go

You just have a high card hand at the 1x decision point. Should you bet your kicker?

*The board is an unpaired rainbow picket fence. That is 'situation one' which goes along with 'one card' ........... only 'one card' that outranks yours can be missing from the board, if one or more there, bet.

*The board has one pair. A pair is 'two cards'........... only 'two cards' that outranks yours can be missing from the board, if two or more there, bet.

*The board has trips. Trips are 'three cards'............ only 'three cards' that outranks yours can be missing from the board, if 3 or more there, bet.

*The board has two pair ......... two pair, take care . Count the outs.... but note... 2 * 2 = 4, the max outranking missing cards .................. but which may be too many also, depending .......... take care!

>>>

Or is  your game up one level?

I Recognize When You "Play the Board"

Your hole cards have made you recognize this at the 1x decision point

If you know your hole cards are now irrelevant, which cards to consider, and that The Dealer Total Outs follow the 18+ rule instead of the 21+ rule, these *less* clever mnemonics should help. 

*No pair [or better] on the board. No pair means No Play, fold

*Board has one pair or Trips. A 9-card or less in the relevant cards means instant fold. Otherwise count the outs [or check out the link]

*Board has two pair or 4 OAK. count the outs [established situations can be learned, but no easy mnemonics]

I think the Super Simple Strategy is helpful
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/odiousgambit/blog/#post2282