odiousgambit's Blog

Part III, The Craps

Craps was the only way I could win, once again.

So I suppose you know that Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Bristol only had a bubble dice version, and as it happened, I didn’t play.

End of trip report for Craps in Bristol VA.

Caesar’s Danville Hotel & Casino had 24|7 Craps with 10x free odds. Arriving on the weekend, the tables had a $25 minimum, and they were full. I hadn’t really settled on how I was going to handle $25, but figured I would play a short session. As it turned out, the combination of minimum and being full was too uninviting. $25 does a good job of making me just not want to play.

After playing some UTH that set me back, I checked out and played some bubble Craps. They had two types, one with a common set of dice for 8 players, the other type a dice bubble for each player, $5 min, and they had several machines. The common dice setup, $3 min, had roulette going too, and it was the one I played… no roulette though. I had some fun guessing if the table was going to turn hot or cold, and then switching, something I never do at a table. It worked out great, though, profiting me nearly $200 with pressing, very welcome after blowing more than that at UTH. A sign promised you would get near zippo in comps.

As it got to the weekdays, I find to my delete the Craps table is finally going with a lower minimum, $10. I buy in and the dice immediately come to me, with others ahead in line declining to shoot. Had the table been cold? I always set the dice, and have developed a toss that ensures two things, the first that the dice hit the felt and continue original spin. Secondly, the dice don’t strike each other when they land. What I see with so many other techniques, including what I used to do, is the dice are tossed such that they are expected to reverse spin after they hit, and tossed so that they hit each other upon landing, and still stay on axis [what?]. This change has worked well for me in my last outings, though far apart such as they are. This time though I only bet on myself at 10x odds, with no come bets, only betting the line bet on other shooters, with maybe 2x odds. I wind up having to leave to join the wife after two chances to be the shooter, but I'm up several hundred with that effort. Craps has saved the trip for me once again. We were back on the road and I had no more chances.

OK, so I’m bragging about my dice setting! Do I really believe it made a difference? No, not really, LOL. I wasn’t able to get to the spot next to stick, so it was way too long to the other end of the table. The dice were not landing in the ideal way, just under the alligator bumps and stopping pat, not even once. Even if that happens, with shooting next to stick so the kinetic energy is lower, I can’t imagine it would really go as planned except rarely, staying on axis not in a random way. And I don’t practice ever, so it is all a delusion for the most part. It goes as planned once every multi-hundred tosses? Maybe not even that. But my last outings since I’ve got the new technique have gone very well.

Just saying!!

VA Gambling Continued

How I practiced for untold hours and wound up unprepared for Ultimate Texas Holdem [UTH]

I was glad to see UTH was going to be available at both places, as I’ve seen casinos decide they don’t want it anymore. My favorite game outside of Craps, I can play it Grosjean-perfect* for long periods of time, mistakes starting only when I get tired. What I mean is that whenever the WoO ‘trainer’ tells me I made a mistake, checking then with the Grosjean strategy, it shows I haven’t against that strategy. This is due to the Grosjean strategy also not being computer-perfect. I pull out and use, however, my own Grosjean-following cheat sheet for the decision point where it’s possible the common cards are likely better than those of dealer or player, creating a push, you want those!… or your kicker may be good enough to bet on. These situations I actually printed and laminated and brought to the casino along with Grosjean cards. I spent a lot of time creating these, posted again below, though you likely will find it all Greek. It’s the problem with learning someone else’s strategy for UTH, it’s impossible to keep from slipping into jargon, this is true for Grosjean’s and Stephen How’s as well [How’s jargon is the worst case]. I’m posting mine, in it’s own unique jargon, to preserve a copy handy for myself, too, but I’d be happy to explain it to you by request. It’s designed to avoid counting outs and have a quick answer ready.

Alas, ironically, the UTH I love has never been all that kind to me. Playing at casinos, I can remember coming out ahead at times, but I know it was only modestly, while losing several hundred was being experienced often, with this at reasonable table minimums. I even got bummed once playing a $2 Ante e-game and walked away, vowing no more of that. So I’ve been waiting for better luck; with the SD being around 5, it’s a matter of time, and I was hoping it would be this time. Another concern was how often I’d seen $25 ante tables not ever go lower at the Cherokee NC casino. Was that to be repeated? The signs always say “$25 minimum”, but that is for the ante so the actual “minimum” is $50 after you match the ante bet with the blind bet! I actually wonder sometimes if they realize this at upper management. $50 a stroke is a lot.

I arrived at Caesar’s Danville on a weekend and sure enough UTH is only offered at $25 ante, $50 real minimum. So is the Craps table and ‘real’ BJ if you can even find it as low as $25, while you were welcome to play 6|5 BJ at $15 . Well, hadn’t I been planning short sessions to deal with this? If total action is actually less than what you would do at lower limits, it’s actually smarter -EV gambling. Just not as much fun.

I finally sat down at $25 UTH with the short session plan. To be sure, I had practiced a lot online. Grosjean says to expect 30 hands an hour, and I usually set up my laptop page so that I can’t even see what the dealer’s hand was, since what dealer had is irrelevant to decisions … you make them without knowing! Without the distraction, you can play 30 hands in just a few minutes. But as a result, I got little practice checking on the dealer. I forgot how important this could be. From previous experience, I knew a bad dealer might give you no time to make your decisions. This is OK for the first decision, but others take at least a moment if not more. So I tell each dealer “I’m slow on my decisions” and how I indicate I’m checking if so. Sure enough, that wasn’t enough. The first dealer is somehow just used to turning over the cards at a certain pace, ignores what I said, and blows past me. Of course I have to start going ‘whoa, whoa!’. I guess for the usual ploppy who is only there to play the 3, count em, 3, side bets**, this pace thing works fine. But it starts me off getting irritated because I am also losing almost every hand.

This joykill actually begins, every time, with the dealer saying on your first bet, before anything, that you forgot to play the side bets. This time I decided to tell them “I’m snakebit by those things”. Alas, the dealer and the other players instantly decide you’re the one who is an idiot. You can tell this, they often say something, so this is another notch up on the irritation scale.

The next dealer is even worse with this pace problem. She is a terrible dealer generally as well, and I continue to lose. Eventually I have a hand where I recognize my kicker is worth betting on. I have J4 and the dealer turns over J9. We instantly conclude I got outkicked and that’s it for me, I color up and leave, and this lamentable dealer says “I think you are better suited for 3 card poker”. She has to be new, so it’s possible I’m the first player she’s had who wanted her to slow down, and the first who wouldn’t play the side bets. I hadn’t been rough on her, but she knew I was a little irritated, so it made sense to her to end it all with an insult. After losing several hundred dollars it stung a bit, but I said nothing.

Pondering it later, I realized I should have been better prepared for the dealers. The fact you will get bad dealers is actually a good thing, and I blew it by getting irritated. If they are used to going by a certain pace, you get to see cards you’re not supposed to see. The dealer knows the pit will back you up if you say you didn’t indicate you were checking, that the dealer just went on bypassing this step that is part of the game. They didn't argue when I protested and stupidly I often was too irritated to get a good look. I should have just turned it into a laughing matter, ‘ha ha you did it again’ and used the information. Worse, I woke up in the middle of the night realizing the last hand was a push, only the Jacks mattered, and the other cards were not in play! $75 down the drain. The dealer of course should have caught this too, but she was terrible. I had practiced and practiced but was unprepared to double-check the dealer when needed, and unprepared to take advantage of a bad one. I allowed irritation to make me play badly.

I was going to learn from my mistakes now but never got another bad dealer! As we got into the week, $10 ante tables opened up. I enjoyed myself, now, playing about 3 hours once. I played at least one more time, overall losing about the same amount as at that one memorable $25 table.

Next was Hard Times Bristol midweek. No Craps except bubble Craps and the execrable derivative, so I played a lot of UTH and the table min was $10 ante. It could have been higher on the weekend, don’t know. Dealers were good and the game was better to me, over two days I lost a total of $50 and enjoyed playing.

UTH, still mostly unkind to me. You could conclude it is a game you are doomed to lose playing long sessions, but when you look at EV/SD it is not the case. It takes a really long time for the EV to reach 10% of one SD, which for me is the point at which you are playing foolishly, YMMV.

Another aside: I have gotten hints it’s not worth learning the best play for the last decision point, where you have to count outs or get a strategy card derived from that. I had the below with me while playing many hours and did not need to consult it once, because some of it I had memorized. It’s fair to say I could have needed to consult it, but as a matter of fact I didn’t, not running into the really hard ones. For sure you will not hurt yourself in EV much at all playing with just the basic knowledge. Alas everyone will consider you an idiot though, because that dictates not playing side bets.

Well, I warned you I’d go on and on . Next post will be on the Craps

* The Beyond Counting author and AP Grosjean put out various strategy cards you can buy in conjunction with the ‘Las Vegas Advisor’ outfit. I find the unavoidable jargon more user friendly and easier than Stephen How’s type

** According to the Bristol site you can play in addition to the Trips Bonus side bet, the Ultimate Pair side bet based on your two cards only, and a Bad Beat side bet, see link, I think it was the same as offered at Caesar’s. Both places had this bet where you placed a chip and a spot lit up with lights and you placed another chip there. I suppose that could have been the Bad Beat but I swear that is the weirdest business I have seen anywhere. Perhaps it’s even a 4th side bet… what the hell is going on there? Every player robotically placed there bets just as if the casino was offering something wonderful. Boy did I see people get wiped out fast.

https://casino.hardrock.com/bristol/-/media/project/shrss/hri/casinos/hard-rock/bristol/casino/table-games/22-hrb-08504_pe_htp_ultimate-texas-holdem-poker_final_nb.pdf?rev=abe3aec8a25c401f9e5c4c5b137c06e4 .

>>>
my cheat sheets

Player Kicker in Play	Permissible Missing Cards Outranking Kicker
Unpaired Board	One Card Can Be Missing, Bet 1x
Board has One Pair	2 Cards Can Be Missing, ditto
Board has Trips	3 Cards Can Be Missing, ditto
Board = Two Pair, Fifth Card Makes Dealer Outs	3 Cards Can Be Missing, ditto
Board has Two Pair, Fifth Card Lower in Rank	4 Cards Can Be Missing, ditto
Board has 4 OAK	play 7-card or better player kicker, ditto

Player Kicker Not in Play	Action Indicated
The board doesn't have a pair or better	No Pair means No Play, instant fold
Board Has One Pair	A 9-card or lower in the other 3 cards = instant fold then a 10-card in the three folds UNLESS ALL other 4 cards higher then a qualified 10, or Jack* or higher in the three, plays *known exceptions 9,9,10,A,J + 9,9,10,K,J
Board has 2 pair with the Fifth card making dealer outs.	A 10-card or lower as the fifth card means instant fold. Play a Jack if Middle Value Play All Higher Others
Board has two pair, AND fifth board card lowest in rank	An 8-card or lower anywhere on the board is an instant fold. Play all that have higher fifth cards
Board has Trips	A 9-card or lower in the other 2 cards is an instant fold Then 10-card there is a fold unless ALL other 4 cards are higher then a qualified 10, or Jack* or higher in the two, plays
Board has 4 OAK	An 8-card or lower as the 5th card is an instant fold A 9-card as the fifth card is a fold UNLESS the 4 board cards are higher Play All Others

My choice below for a strategy card to use in casino with abbreviations and memorized parts omitted

Kicker in Play	# Cards
Bd Trips/2 pair 7-O	3 Cards
Bd 2 Pair 4-O	4-O=4 cards
Bd 4 OAK	play 7-card+

Kicker Not in Play	FOLD
Bd = One Pair	Pert 9-card 10-card unless all higher
Bd 2 pair 7-O	Pert 10-card Play Pert Jack if Middle Val Play all Pert Queen+
Bd 2 pair 4-O	8-card anywhere Play all higher Perts
Board = Trips	9-card 10-card unless ALL higher
Bd = 4 OAK	Pert 8-card 9-card UNLESS all 4 higher

.

Will I go back to a casino?

Will I go back to a casino?

Recently visited the two Virginia casinos nearest me; I hadn’t gambled in a casino since December 2022. Remarkable enough! I posted a review and, well, a rant; the rant for the outrage of opening a Crapless Craps table while keeping closed a real Craps table [links at bottom]

The question that bothers me now is not whether I’d return to one of those casinos, but whether I’d return to any casino, especially if it involves travel that I otherwise would not undertake. If the latter, I think not, even if offers I might get result in +EV, or the more likely just very cheap cost gambling. Some things have happened since the thrilling days of yesteryear, the pandemic for sure, to get me out of the mold, and online sports gambling, which got me into +EV mode exclusively with my betting. This latter bit is a real problem, and I don’t mean it’s because I’m getting rich doing it. But I am now used to looking at a bet and saying “this is +EV if I have it right”. Even if they limit the bet to $5, it’s something to feel good about. Placing bets in a casino now, I hear the opposite voice, “This is -EV, justify this”. Well, I can do that if I can get in on offers even if that means the gambling is only cheap in cost, not +EV. The way that works, to get those offers, I’ll initially have to take a hit, and table minimums are higher now. Additionally, I used to have other reasons to travel near a casino; now I don’t and it’s a cost that no plausible offer is going to cover.

A couple of other things dampen my enthusiasm. I was wondering how I was going to deal with $25 table minimums in the two games I wanted to play, Craps and UTH. So I practiced on these games using high minimums in order to get myself used to them. I soon realized that at those high minimums it was going to be short sessions. At Craps, I even thought to stay longer at it, I’d use the Wizards hedgehog. I practiced that but kept running really bad, like I was doing it wrong or something; then toyed around with some of my own similar ideas, which seemed to work and then didn’t. No such thing was possible with UTH, I just had to plan to do short sessions and hope for the best. And hope for lower table minimums !

I can tell I'm going to get longwinded, so I'll post this and forewarn that you might want to skip the next post, where I'll go into what I actually experienced, but it will be longwinded.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/41801-reviewing-va-caesars-and-hr-bristol/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/41785-thumbs-down-bristol-va-craps/ .

Freebet Strategies

I was wondering if you get diminishing returns increasing from +200 to +400 on freebets, with the decreasing chances of winning possibly eating into the higher return. Increased variance is another matter.

With 2 separating events, one, “B” , being a freeroll for half the initial bet of the other, “A”, how high would the HE have to be on A in order to make the total EV be zero?

Assumptions: the player is able to keep the HE on the freebet at 5%
A is a 2 unit bet, B is a one unit freebet
double check below on 5% prob.

If for B the player selects a +200 bet:
EV of B: chances of winning times amount to win
0.3167*2= 0.6334

EV of A: X*2=-0.6334
X=-0.6334/2= -0.3167 ……………………. 31.67% HE for A is a no go

__

If player selects a +300 bet
EV of B: chances of winning times amount to win
0.2375*3=0.7125

EV of A: X*2=-0.7125
X=-0.7125/2 = -0.35625 …………………… 35.62% HE a no go

__

If player selects a +400 bet [and prepares himself emotionally for losing streaks]

EV of B : 0.19 × 4 = 0.76

EV of A: X*2=-0.76
X = -0.38 …………………………………….. 38% HE a no go

conclusion: stepping up the paytable on the freebet is effective
risk of losing streaks has to be considered
WOWOLFBs are however almost always worth considering*

>>>

double checks:

is 0.3135 prob right for a normal +200 bet with a 5% HE?
derived by multiplying 0.33333 times 0.95
chances times amount to win minus chances times amount to lose
0.3167*2 - 0.6833*1=-0.0499 ……………………. checks

__

is 0.2375 prob right for a normal +300 bet with a 5% HE?
derived by multiplying 0.25 times 0.95
chances times amount to win minus chances times amount to lose
0.2375*3 - 0.7625*1=-0.05 ……………………. checks

* WOWOLFB = winnings only, win or lose freebet

Apparent Edge vs EV

I redid the previous blogpost, “second chance parlay betting“, so that any suggestion that the HE can be changed by a betting system is not stated. When a parlay bet is calculated for ‘edge’ using the initial bet in the normal way, it gives the appearance that such edge is indeed changed. Typically, with the assumption that each leg is -EV, the end result of a parlay bet can be shown to indicate the total EV is even of greater magnitude in the negative. Likewise, if all legs are +EV, even greater player increase in EV can be shown. However, the ‘edge’ is not changed by the process, the EV of the parlay is changing because of the increase in the amount bet that a parlay method entails. So I am saying this an ‘apparent’ change in edge even though the increase in EV, negative or positive, is very real.

I have to note that Wong and the Wizard in some of what they have written both either encourage or do not discourage parlay betting where the legs are believed to be +EV. I can’t find where they say why they like it other than the obvious result of sometimes getting a nice payoff if you can handle the risk.

I’ve decided to even go so far as to use the phrase “Deceptive Apparent Edge” from now on … so that anyone reading what I have written is not put off by thinking that I am claiming a parlay system can affect the house edge. The previous blogpost has been rewritten with this change. Where I am claiming something is +EV, this is due to the nature of the offer, such as second chance betting.